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Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 12:56:58 AM

Keene! Wednesday is August 1st! (Monthly Futures Pivots)

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:55:02 PM

May, June, July'06 MONTHLY Pivot levels Link

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 11:36:53 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

With equity futures down hard tonight I decided to change the charts a little and show the greater likelihood that we haven't finished the 5-wave move down from last week. But unless we're in a crash scenario, the leg down that started from Tuesday morning's high should be the 5th wave and that should set up the large multi-day rally to correct the decline. So be careful chasing this lower on Wednesday as it might do a v-bottom.

The DOW and SPX 60-min charts look virtually the same: Link and Link By a Fib projection for the 5th wave (where it will equal 162% of the 1st wave) we should see them find support around DOW 13150 and SPX 1447. The futures are already pointing a lot lower than that so it will be interesting to see what carries over into the cash market.

The daily chart shows support near the Fib projection at 1447 by its uptrend line from July 2006 and its 200-dma. So perhaps a sharp drop below that support level followed by a quick reversal that gets the shorts covering. It could be a very volatile day. Link

NDX and RUT have similar looking charts now--they both also look like they need to finish the leg down that started from Tuesday's high but then start a multi-day rally to correct the decline. If NDX keeps heading lower then uptrend support isn't until about 1870: Link And the RUT's uptrend line from August 2004 is near 750 if it doesn't find support earlier.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:26:32 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:26:26 PM

Cephalon (CEPH) $75.14 -1.68% Link ... gave reversing lower PnF sell signal at $76.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:16:02 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $131.76 -6.83% Link ... gave reversing lower PnF sell signal at $134.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:12:14 PM

Bear Alert! ... Tuesday's action did see Dorsey/Wrights NASDAQ-100 Bullish % (BPNDX) fall further to "bear alert" status with a net loss of 2 stocks to reversing lower point and figure sell signals. Currently 68%.

OI Technical Staff : 7/31/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 9:56:50 PM

YM Daily/Weekly/Monthly Pivot Levels at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 8:30:05 PM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 5:44:55 PM

2 million shares blocked in QQQQ extended at $47.49.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 5:29:44 PM

May, June and July's MONTHLY Pivot Levels at this Link

S&P 500 down 3.2% for the month. Down 1.8% last three months.

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 5:19:59 PM

The RUT could still get a big bounce tomorrow as part of its 4th wave consolidation before giving us a new low to then be followed by a bigger bounce. Link

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 5:18:16 PM

I've taken the bullish wave count off the NDX chart. With the drop below 1948 it negated that count. The only ones left are either slightly bearish or very bearish, take your pick (they're both very bearish but with different timing). Link

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 5:13:06 PM

The DOW chart still looks the same as the SPX. A minor new low tomorrow should set up another rally leg regardless of which of the two counts I have on the chart. The count that I don't have is for a market crash but always stay aware of that possibility from here. Link

Notice the MACD turning back down from the zero line--that's a sell signal and it better get rerversed quickly. The higher odds scenario is that we'll get a lower price low with a higher MACD low but again, stay on your toes if your're long or trying to get long.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 4:32:36 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 4:29:10 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 4:09:09 PM

We still don't know if we're in the dark red or light red wave count. A continuation lower tomorrow will likely put us in the light red count and a test of the 1448 support level (200-dma and uptrend line from July 2006) would be very likely. A rally right away will say we should be headed up in wave-C of the A-B-C bounce off Monday's low. Both count are looking for a move higher even after a new low first so I wouldn't chase this any lower at this point (famous last words since we'll probably collapse lower now that I've said that). Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 4:03:03 PM

That was NOT a bullish close ...

Tab Gilles : 7/31/2007 3:57:13 PM

SPX has another leg down as this rally fizzles out. I'm looking for 1400; a 10% correction, 19.1% retracement, test of 50 week ma and March lows. Link

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 3:52:17 PM

SPX is now in the support zone to finish this pullback. Be looking for some evidence of bottoming to try a long play. Much lower than 1459 though and I'd be more careful about trying a long. Getting down there as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 3:48:17 PM

YM 13,291 ... set to test MONTHLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 3:47:45 PM

S&P / AHM Rankings ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 3:46:36 PM

S&P Places AHM Rankings on Negative Watch ... AHM $1.14 -89.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 3:37:46 PM

Day trade short hold overnight alert! ... If Research in Motion (RIMM) $216.00 -1.86% does not achieve my target of $210 by the close, I will hold this 1/2 position overnight.

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 3:33:40 PM

No rally yet and I don't think it will until it gives us a new minor low first. And if the minor new low comes in the last half hour here then it will look like a good setup for a long play tomorrow (hopefully it won't start with a huge gap up).

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 3:13:00 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 3:03:29 PM

A small consolidation here followed by a new low, especially if it's showing bullish divergences and price is near the Fib projection just under SPX 1462, should be a very good setup to get long. The top of its broken descending wedge is now closer to 1460 so that's a potential downside target. And a new low would not negate the A-B-C setup that needs wave-C to a level above this morning's high.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 3:02:36 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 2:59:05 PM

10-year ($TNX.X) down 2.9 bp at 4.775%. Not unlike YM, couldn't quite get it done above WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 2:58:13 PM

Five Year Yield ($FVX.X) down 2.3 bp now at 4.604% ... pretty decent reversal.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 2:46:48 PM

Day trade short alert for 1/2 position in shares of Research in Motion (RIMM) at the bid of $216. Stop got $219. Target $210

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 2:36:11 PM

Should go 13,360

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 2:32:27 PM

YM 13,389 and DAILY Pivot ... potential "bear raid"

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 2:27:38 PM

Be careful if looking to buy this dip (as I am) since it's giving me the impression that it might dip further than the projection for two equal legs down.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 2:28:23 PM

Fed's Poole: ... DJ- The full implication of last week's turmoil in stock and bond markets is still unclear, but most such market upsets tend to stabilize on their own, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said Tuesday.

Speaking at the University of Missouri in Columbia, Mo., Poole pointed to last week's sharp moves in financial markets that were fueled by concerns over the fallout on broader credit markets from the shaky subprime mortgage market. Last week, stocks and corporate debt plunged, while the short end of U.S. Treasurys rallied as investors feared a credit crunch could freeze markets.

"The Fed doesn't know, and market participants do not know either, the full implications of last week's stock market declines and increases" in risk premiums, Poole said in prepared remarks. "Market reactions last week may be overdone, or perhaps not. We just do not know."

While the Fed should not ignore the recent developments, Poole said, policy-makers should also not allow uncertainty over policy to add to the current market confusion and should let markets take the lead.

In his remarks, Poole argued that the most important task for policy-makers is to behave in a "rule-like way" - by anchoring inflation expectations and behaving in a predictable manner - as an overactive Fed tends to destabilize markets. The Fed should respond to market upsets only if prices, jobs or broader financial markets were to be threatened, he said.

"The Fed should not try to substitute its judgments for the market's judgment on appropriate security prices," Poole said. "The market understands, I believe, that the Fed will act in due time if and when evidence accumulates that action would be appropriate," he said.

Poole also noted that the decline in long Treasury rates last week helped to stabilize markets, pointing to many cases in recent years in which long rates have helped to stabilize the economy while the Fed has remained on the sidelines.

In the meantime, views on where markets are headed after last week's turmoil will control the long bond rate and security prices in general, Poole said. Though eventually, as new information clarifies the situation, more normal market conditions will reemerge, he said.

In his comments, Poole also stressed the importance of paying close attention to money growth, stating that he believes a central bank "ignores money growth at its peril."

Poole said that inflation expectations are currently "quite" well anchored, pointing out that central to anchoring expectations is for policy-makers to act when inflation expectations change in an unsavory way.

"Central bank behavior to anchor expectations of low and stable inflation is the single most important aspect of policy predictability," Poole said, and policy-makers must "act vigorously to resist inflation or deflation whenever it becomes evident." That stance will lead market participants to develop firm views on the likely future rate of inflation, he said.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 2:00:09 PM

Continuous Nat Gas ($NATGAS) $0.20 box Link to match futures.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 1:53:27 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $58.71 +2.10% Link ... nearing its bullish vertical count of $59.00.

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 1:52:42 PM

Using the SPX 10-min chart I'm showing both retracement levels for the pullback against yesterday's rally and the projections for today's pullback. A move with two equal legs down would be at 1470.47 and a move with the 2nd leg down = 162% of the 1st leg down would be down to 1461.81. You can see where those correlate to the retracement levels. So first potential support is less than 4 points lower, with lower potential from there, to try a long play for the next leg up. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 1:39:00 PM

YM alert 13,455

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 1:31:13 PM

YM 13,473

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 1:30:37 PM

There's a 5-minute close below 13,474 ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 1:18:02 PM

XLF $34.12 +0.41% ... #6 most active today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 1:12:13 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link Internals Link

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 1:04:41 PM

Actually this time it could work the other way--sneak in a long play for a last-hour rally (if we get another leg down this afternoon first).

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 1:02:36 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 12:57:58 PM

Jeff, not a bad idea. I'll sneak in a short play for the last hour and then announce I'm leaving for the day (but watch from a distance). See if it works again.

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 12:56:49 PM

You can see how ES is "suspended from the rafter" here. It should soon let go and freefall (but not too far). Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:53:36 PM

DDM $93.41 +1.12% ... about 7 or 8-cents too tight.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:52:39 PM

Unless Keene steps out the last hour of today's trade, there might not be any action the rest of the day! (See Friday afternoon's MM)


Either that or I profile a DDM long.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:49:39 PM

YM post profile short has seen 13,508 and 13,473.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:48:47 PM

YM 13,484 ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:47:25 PM

Maybe right here?

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:47:11 PM

All I'm wondering now is where computer close things out. YM MONTHLY Pivot and QQQQ MONTHLY R2? Maybe QQQQ MONTHLY R1 and YM MONTHLY Pivot?

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:45:31 PM

Kind'a get the feeling, based on YM and QQQQ observation that the day's range has been established.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:43:13 PM

At today's close, we'll get new MONTHLY Pivot levels for August. Can't believe it is August already!

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:41:51 PM

QQQQ 5-minute interval chart with MONTHLY (Pink) and WEEKLY pivot retracement Link

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 12:41:20 PM

While SPX has pulled back just a little more than the DOW, when referencing their uptrend lines from yesterday, they've both been marching up those uptrend lines since this morning's dip. They should both let go soon and give us another leg down.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:34:12 PM

Hmmm ... QQQQ traders also "thinking pink"

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:33:48 PM

Computers in control ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:33:22 PM

YM 13,487 ... QQQQ $48.43 ... both right where we shorted YM.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:32:27 PM

YM 13,490

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:31:56 PM

Bear saying "it shouldn't" have come above ... QQQQ flounders at break-even. RUT +0.88% leads advance?

Either short covering, or "great value"

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:30:30 PM

YM 13,502

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:30:19 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart at this Link ... Gold/brown retracement is "dynamic"

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:24:19 PM

YM short stop alert 13,495 ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:20:31 PM

YM short lower stop alert to 13,495.

YM 13,477 ... sitting on 38.2% dynamic. Need DAILY R1 13,493 to serve resistance.

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 12:11:27 PM

NDX has a more bearish looking chart here with a sharp drop down this morning and now followed by a sideways/up correction. Two equal legs down would take it to a new low.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 12:00:00 PM

YM short alert ... here at 13,487. Stop goes 13,504. Target 13,455.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:51:04 AM

Valero Sees McKee Refinery Back By End of Q4 ... Reuters Story Link

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 11:46:07 AM

This little bounce should be followed by another leg down at which point I'd look for two equal legs down from this morning's high as an opportunity to try a long play. For example, if it tips back over from here then two equal legs down would be at SPX 1467.29 (ES 1472.75).

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:40:20 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was $3.75 on Revenue of $22.96 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:36:36 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:29:13 AM


DJ- Owner of TV shopping channel HSN, Ticketmaster and Ask.com reports net income of $96 million, or 32c a share. Excluding items, per-share earnings fall to 31c. Revenue rises 5.6% to $1.51 billion. Wall Street expected EPS of 33c.

IACI $28.85 -4.97% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:27:34 AM


DJ- Home lender's net falls to $44.6 million, or 60c a share. Revenue drops 21% to $297.8 million. Mortgage production rises 12% to $22.5 billion, but it falls by same percentage from 1Q. Analysts expected EPS of 54c.

IMB $22.55 +3.96% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:25:31 AM


DJ- Shares rise 6% a day after it reports fiscal 4Q profit of $329 million, or 9c a share, from a year-earlier loss of $301 million. Revenue edges higher to $3.84 billion. Analysts expected a profit of 5c a share.

SUNW $5.22 +6.74% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:24:19 AM


DJ- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries posts revenue of nearly $650 billion last year on high crude prices and increased oil production, but its sales are just half those of the top U.S. and European energy firms.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:23:21 AM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $29.62 +0.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:22:59 AM

Nortel (NT) $21.87 -2.14% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:22:39 AM


DJ- Shares drop 9% as telecom-equipment maker posts 2Q operating loss of $25.9 million versus a year-ago profit of $344.2 million, as the company continues to integrate its businesses. Analysts expected operating profit of $116 million.

ALU $11.81 -10.93% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:21:36 AM


DJ- National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago's manufacturing index falls to 53.4 in July, below the projected 58.0 reading, from 60.2 in June. Report suggests modest economic growth through 2007 and into 2008.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:21:00 AM


DJ- Health-care giant, bracing itself for loss of market exclusivity for blockbuster drugs and adjusting to a downturn in its drug-coated stent business, says it will cut its global work force by about 3,615 to 4,820 jobs.

JNJ $61.15 +1.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:19:45 AM


DJ- Conference Board says its index of consumer confidence for July moves to 112.6 from an upwardly revised 105.3 in June and from 108.5 in May. Economists expected the July reading to rise to 106.0.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:18:52 AM


DJ- Shares jump 3% as auto maker earns $891 million, or $1.56 a share, compared with a year-ago loss of $3.4 billion, on continued strength in its international operations and a slim adjusted profit in its core North America automotive unit. Results outpace Wall Street expectations, but GM executives say work remains in turnaround efforts as challenges lie ahead in the second half of the year.

GM $33.59 +3.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:13:40 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 11:03:12 AM

If SPX breaks its uptrend line from yesterday then that will be a good clue that the first leg up is finished. Then it will be a question as to whether we're in the light red or dark red wave count as shown on the SPX 60-min chart.

This 30-min chart assumes for the time being that we're in the dark red count which calls for a pullback and then another push higher, for an A-B-C 2nd wave correction. A pullback to the top of the broken descending wedge, near 1464, would be typical (although not required) and then rally again, perhaps up to the 1500 area. That would be the next MOAP setup. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2007 11:02:24 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 10:52:19 AM

SPX is hitting its uptrend line from yesterday's mid-day low so we'll see if that provides much support. If the trend line breaks then that will help confirm that the first leg up in its bounce is finished. Then it will be a question as to whether we're going to get more of a sideways consolidation (light red wave count on its 60-min chart below) or a pullback and then another big leg up as part of an A-B-C 2nd wave correction (dark red wave count).

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 10:48:51 AM

First potential support for this morning's pullback will be gap closures at ES 1480.50 and YM 13411. It looks like ES will get there first.

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 10:25:52 AM

YM got a little higher than its premarket high while ES fell a little short of it and now we're getting a little stronger pullback. It's possible we've seen the high for the morning and we'll start a stronger pullback now in which case a short against this morning's high would be a good play for today. If the market is able to proceed higher then watch for those 38% retracement levels.

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 10:05:28 AM

DOW 13523 would be a 38% retracement of last week's rally.

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 9:53:06 AM

With price stalling here I'm wondering if we're going to get a move down to close this morning's gaps first. But so far it's looking like price is holding well enough to give us another stab higher.

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 9:48:58 AM

Watch for a retest of the premarket highs in the futures (ES 1495.75, YM 13529, NQ 2011.50) and possibly a pullback that starts from there. So perhaps another 5-6 SPX points which would give us around 1490 on the cash index. SPX 1492.52 would be a 38% retracement of last week's decline.

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 9:02:28 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Core consumer inflation increased 0.1% for the fourth consecutive month in June, pushing the yearly gain in core inflation down to the lowest level in three years, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

The core personal consumption price index rose 1.9% in the past year, the lowest inflation since early 2004, and just within the Federal Reserve's unofficial comfort zone of 1% to 2% for core inflation. Core inflation excludes volatile food and energy prices.

Overall inflation also increased 0.1% in June, the lowest monthly inflation since November. Overall inflation is up 2.3% in the past year. The Federal Reserve has said that an acceleration of inflation remains the chief risk to a stable economy. The Fed will remain on inflation alert until moderate inflation is sustained over a long period. The Federal Open Market Committee will meet next week to discuss monetary policy; analysts predict no change in the federal funds target rate, currently at 5.25%.

Meanwhile, personal incomes increased 0.4% in June, less than the 0.6% gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Nominal spending rose 0.1% as expected. Real consumer spending (adjusted for inflation) was unchanged in June. Real consumer spending weakened as the second quarter progressed after a surge in the first quarter. Spending has little momentum heading into the third quarter.

Inflation-adjusted after-tax incomes rose 0.3% in June, the first increase since March. With incomes rising faster than spending, the personal savings rate improved to 0.6% of disposable incomes.

Upward revisions to past data have erased the previously reported 26 consecutive months of negative savings. Incomes were revised higher, while spending was revised lower. Savings -- the difference between incomes and spending -- have been modestly positive for most of the past two years.

Real spending on durable goods fell 1.6%, reversing the 1.7% gain in May. Spending on nondurable goods was flat. Spending on services increased 0.2%.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said employment costs rose 0.9% in the second quarter, as expected by economists. Employment costs are up 3.3% in the past year.

Interesting data on the savings rate. I wonder how they were able to revise the data to wipe out the negative savings rate over the past 2 years. Overall it looks like a neutral report. No change for the Fed policy although it does give them a little wiggle room--if inflation is coming down (cough) and the economy keeps slowing then they could have room to lower rates. The drop in the futures after this economic report doesn't suggest people are thinking that way.

Keene Little : 7/31/2007 8:47:51 AM

With the market doing so much gapping up and down lately it's showing why you need to be in a position overnight in order to make some money with the move. Of course just the opposite is true and you can get a nasty surprise when you wake up in the morning.

So we've got a nice start to the day and at 1495.75 ES tagged last Friday morning's high which is the top of, or beginning of, the descending wedge pattern that it broke out of yesterday. This is usually a good retracement level and it would be typical to see a pullback from it. So maybe a pullback this morning and then a continuation of the rally later today/tomorrow. That's just a guess but it would fit.

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