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Keene Little : 8/1/2007 10:46:01 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Updates to the 60-min charts shows the bullish and bearish wave count possibilities from here. I'm assuming that Wednesday's lows finished the decline from the mid-July high. Now we'll either get a bounce correction or the start of a new leg up. For now it just means look to get long the market:
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

I'll get GOOG and CME updated tomorrow morning to show what the bigger picture might look like for those two (which may provide some clues for the broader market).

OI Technical Staff : 8/1/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 6:01:30 PM

July and August-to-date Trade Blotter of CLOSED trades at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 5:54:15 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

ZPY-XN and VLO-UZ were closed out today.

Remaining position in PBT was stopped at $13.90. I did reduce cost basis by $0.096552 and coming $0.116911 per share distributions (see trade blotter).

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 5:31:33 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 5:11:11 PM

That was a moderately bullish close.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 4:53:06 PM

YM's REGULAR SESSION Low was 13,173. Still trading but REGULAR SESSION High so far has been 13,439.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 4:50:56 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 4:12:44 PM

Check out YM ... take a trend from Monday's REGULAR SESSION low to Tuesday's REGULAR SESSION low. Extend the trend.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 4:02:55 PM

Valero (VLO) goes out $63.63 -5.11% ...

Keene Little : 8/1/2007 4:01:09 PM

Nice little bit of short covering wouldn't you say? Now will it hold up is the next question. We either snuck in a bottom this afternoon or else this shot up is just wave-c of an a-b-c consolidation. The test will be tomorrow--it can't make a new low on the pullback so the setup is to get long tomorrow against today's low.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:59:38 PM

YM +142 now ... had a question regarding my very tight stops of late that were getting hit. This is why.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:56:11 PM

Don! ... WB $46.87 -0.76% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:55:36 PM

Oh my! ... WFC +1.83% ... XLF +1.12%

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:54:47 PM

RIMM $215.50 +0.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:53:19 PM

YM sticks its head above DAILY Pivot 13,447 here at 13,372.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:52:20 PM

OK .. I'm showing the SFB-UR has traded 4,199 contracts so far today (all exchanges). Low/High has been $5.10 / $6.30

Currently $5.30 x $5.50.

SPY $145.97 +0.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:50:02 PM

OK ... I'm showing the SFB-TP having traded 28,377 contracts (all exchanges) today. Low/High has been $2.50 / $3.60.

SPY $145.58 =0.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:48:12 PM

YM's "still thinking pink" from what I've seen today. MONTHLY 61.8% at 13,326.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:47:17 PM

For those that may be "new" to the markets, the Treasury bond market closed at 03:00 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:45:41 PM

Permian Basin Trust (PBT) $14.02 -2.57% ... an equity, or a true representation of what it is supposed to be?

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:44:22 PM

Or here it comes!

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:44:14 PM

Thar she goes .... YM 13,300

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:43:23 PM

WFC $33.82 +0.14% ... only gainer in "financial" watch list.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:42:50 PM

XLF $32.90 ... unch

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:41:17 PM

YM 13,273 ... "unch"

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:40:42 PM

YM range in last 15 minutes ... 13,183 to 13,263. That's $400/contract inflection.

I'm playing things close to the belt "down here" with stops.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:36:06 PM

VIX 25.76

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:34:19 PM

Swing trade long put close out alert ... the Valero Energy VLO Dec $70 Put (ZPY-XN) at the bid of $10.60.

VLO $62.50 -6.77%

Target was $63.50.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:31:37 PM

VIX 25.93 +10.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:31:01 PM

VLO $62.34 -6.99% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:30:41 PM

Swing trade covered put buy it back alert! ... Buy back the Valero VLO Sep $62.50 Put (VLO-UZ) at the offer of $4.00.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:29:31 PM

With much more to risk than we have to gain ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:27:57 PM

03:05 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/1/2007 3:26:09 PM

As far as picking a bottom (for a long play) I think it's still a little early. It would look best with a small consolidation followed by another minor low. The bullish divergences should remain at the new lows as confirmation we're putting in a bottom. The final washout low might happen tomorrow morning.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:21:41 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $62.26 -7.08% ... probes its rising 200-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:13:45 PM

YM short stop alert 13.210

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:09:43 PM

YM short lower stop alert ... to 13.210

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:06:13 PM

03:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:03:46 PM

Will play the "pattern" until it plays out I guess.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:01:36 PM

YM short alert here at 13,240. Stop 13,265, target 13,155

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 3:00:37 PM

10-year down 1.6 bp at 4.755% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:59:30 PM

Thar it goes

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:59:06 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $57.50 -1.77% ... unconventional $1 box Link ... and $0.50 Link ... we'll chart X's to $59.00, and question mark down to $57.50.

PROTECT GAINS if long oil-related issues.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:56:33 PM

Even when you sell today, you'll still get your monthly dividend of $0.116911 from July's distribution.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:55:38 PM

Bullish swing trade stop alert ... on the Permian Basin Trust (PBT) 13.90

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:55:08 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $62.81 -6.23% ... testing Dorsey/Wright bullish support trend.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:52:31 PM

YM 13,254 ... broke below intra-day upward trend, as it has for several sessions (that got dumped lower). That break of trend fell to 13,211, but has been "snapped" back higher.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:51:15 PM

What do ya think? dirty trick? or DAILY S1?

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:43:32 PM

10-year unch at 4.771% Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:41:15 PM

YM is "coiling" like a rattlesnake that's been stepped on.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:39:22 PM

Asian Markets Link

$NIKK Link

$HSI Link

$SSEC Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:33:34 PM

US Crisis Sends World Markets Tumbling ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:32:25 PM

I have dipped a toe back in the water on some "junk bond" PHF $8.99 in my retirement account. About 2% of account is all.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:30:08 PM

YM 13,253

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:29:47 PM

This is a test ... 10-year yield up 0.05 bp at 4.767%.

See if higher yield (marginal selling in benchmark bond) brings any buyers into equities.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:12:45 PM

RIMM 214.83 +0.38% ...

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 2:09:11 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. on Wednesday posted a wider second-quarter loss, as the media company was hit by charges, declines in merchandise sales at Kmart and a falloff in broadcasting revenue.

The company posted a net loss of $6.7 million, or 13 cents a share, from a loss of $1.2 million, or 2 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding nonrecurring items, the loss was 9 cents a share compared with a loss of 7 cents a share in the prior-year period.

Revenue rose 7.7% to $73.4 million from $68.2 million

Keene Little : 8/1/2007 2:09:02 PM

The little choppy rise in the last hour looks bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:08:50 PM

GE July Sales -18.5% ... AP Snapshot Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:07:56 PM

10-year $TNX.X 4.767 ... down just 0.6 bp.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 2:07:27 PM

WE have some pretty ugly trading out there now. Very choppy.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:07:22 PM

GM $32.50 +0.30% ..

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 2:06:50 PM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 2:06:33 PM

YM short stop alert 13,289

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 1:59:12 PM

Short YM at 13,253

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 1:58:43 PM

YM short trigger alert

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 1:57:49 PM

YM short setup alert with YM 13,270. Look to short YM at 13,253. Stop 13,289, target 13,207

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 1:53:25 PM

GM releasing its sales ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 1:52:42 PM

Ford July Auto Sales .. AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 1:45:45 PM

YM short cover alert 13239

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 1:39:57 PM

YM short have your finger on the button alert ... YM 13,254.

Keene Little : 8/1/2007 1:34:05 PM

The bullish divergences on the SPX 60-min chart support the "5th of the 5th" wave count. But you are trying to catch falling knives here so be careful. Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 1:29:53 PM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Beazer Homes USA Inc. lost as much as 40% Wednesday morning on talk that the company could be filing for bankruptcy, but the home builder strongly dismissed the rumors in a statement as "scurrilous and unfounded."

Beazer ( stock recovered, but was still off more than 13% in early-afternoon trading. A company spokeswoman didn't immediately return a call seeking comment on the trading activity.

However, the company did issue a statement: "We have become aware of rumors circulating in the market about Beazer Homes' liquidity and a prospective bankruptcy filing. We do not know where these scurrilous and unfounded rumors started," Beazer said.

Keene Little : 8/1/2007 1:29:03 PM

As the selling starts to pick up in the afternoon again everyone's thinking "here we go again". But this leg down from the mid-day high has the potential to be the last one--the 5th wave of move down from yesterday morning which looks to be the 5th wave of the move down from July 19th, so the 5th of the 5th wave to finish the decline. Watch for bullish divergences to test the long side since it should make a very good multi-day trade.

Keene Little : 8/1/2007 1:25:46 PM


Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 1:22:06 PM

YM 13,243 ... sits on 61.8% dynamic.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 1:21:30 PM

YM short adjust stop alert ... to 13,289 (from 13,285). Let's try an NOT repeat yesterday's stop placement.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 1:20:16 PM

Wait ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 1:18:25 PM

New lows at the big board more than yesterday's 353. May suggest further softening at the bottom. New highs about equal to Monday's.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 1:16:50 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 1:14:30 PM

YM short alert here at 13,253. Tight stop at 13,285. Target 13,155.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 1:04:34 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 1:02:27 PM

Junk bond PHF taking it on the chin again today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 12:59:50 PM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) Per Friday's commentary and Monday Market Wrap ... has seen trade at 1,450. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 12:44:50 PM

Permian Basin Truse (PBT) ... Per trade blotter ... On June 22 we went long at $13.50. On 7/23/07 we sold 1/2 of the position at $14.47.

Holding remaining with stop at $13.90.

At this point, I simply recognize that USO did achieve its bullish vertical count. December is getting close to its bullish vertical count.

Should bulls liquidate oil, need Natural Gas prices to recover, take up the slack. If not, then stopped on PBT at $13.90 (plus a couple of month's dividend distributions).

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 12:40:06 PM

December Nat Gas ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 12:26:39 PM

Permian Basin Trust (PBT) $14.26 -0.90% ... goes ex-dividend today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 12:24:25 PM

Tomorrow we'll get the weekly Nat Gas Storage data.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 12:18:12 PM

Dec Crude (cl07z) ... Link ... have filled in today's current action. Bullish vertical count to $79.00. Would be negated currently should contract trade $72.50.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 12:10:51 PM

Sep Crude Oil (cl07u) ... Link ... As noted yesterday (approaching) and then this morning. The USO did achieve its bullish vertical count this morning.

September crude's bullish vertical count is to $92.50. I don't think it would trade that level prior to expiration, but other futures contracts point higher longer-term too.

For now, it would take a trade at $75.00 to negate the bullish vertical count.

Keene Little : 8/1/2007 12:13:19 PM

Today's rally attempts look choppy and does not inspire bullishness in me. If anything it looks like it could chop its way lower still.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 11:53:09 AM

MOODY'S 2Q NET JUMPS 52%

DJ- Credit ratings agency's net rises to $261.9 million, or 95c a share, as revenue increases 26% to $646.1 million. Excluding items, it earns 76c a share; analysts expected 69c. It sees revenue growth at low end of guidance.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 11:52:21 AM

PAULSON URGES FASTER YUAN APPRECIATION

DJ- U.S. Treasury secretary says that his meetings with senior Chinese officials focused on yuan exchange rate reform, product safety, and environmental issues, and that he urged Chinese officials to allow faster yuan appreciation.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 11:51:52 AM

FED KROSZNER SEES MORE ATTENTION TO SUBPRIME

DJ- Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner says that while regulation and market forces have changed subprime lending practices at federally supervised banks, "additional action" is needed.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 11:50:51 AM

BEAR STEARNS HIT AGAIN BY MORTGAGE SECTOR

DJ- Bear Stearns prevents investors from withdrawing money from its Asset-Backed Securities Fund, which has about $850 million in mortgage investments and virtually no subprime exposure, as the nation's weak housing sector sends further ripples down Wall Street. Move comes as Bear's two troubled subprime-heavy hedge funds seek bankruptcy protection.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 11:48:45 AM

Chrysler Group July US Sales Fall 8.4% DJ- Chrysler Group Wednesday posted an 8.4% drop in U.S. sales for July, amid high gas prices and a slump in the housing market that are expected to help produce bleak overall sales results for the auto industry.

DaimlerChrysler AG's (DCX) U.S. unit, which is being sold to private-equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, posted total sales of 137,728 vehicles for the month, down from 150,349 a year earlier. Chrysler, which consists of the Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge brands and is a heavy seller of trucks and sport-utility vehicles, will break out its sales figures in a later release.

The German parent company's luxury Mercedes-Benz USA division posted a 14% drop in July sales to 18,586.

DaimlerChrysler shares recently traded at $89.72, down 1.1%, or $1.03.

Auto makers are releasing U.S. monthly sales figures throughout the day. There were 24 selling days last month, versus 25 a year ago.

Generally, analysts expect U.S. light-vehicle sales for July to fall 6% from a year ago, possibly to their lowest level for the month in a decade, as the ailing U.S. housing market and high gas prices weigh on consumers.

Even Japan's leading auto makers may not escape the July slump. Though sales for Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) and Honda Motor Co. have held steady amid market softness so far this year, a recent J.D. Power report predicted Toyota's sales falling slightly and Honda's sales dropping more than 5%, adjusted for fewer selling days this July than a year earlier.

Detroit's lucrative pickup truck market has been particularly hard hit by the slowdown in the home-construction market, with pickup sales off 5.6% so far this year.

Chrysler, which derives more than 70% of its revenue from truck and SUV sales, has been especially hurt by rising gasoline prices. In a move to concentrate on more lucrative sales to dealerships, the Auburn Hills, Mich., company is following the lead of rivals General Motors Corp. (GM) and Ford Motor Co. (F) in reining in low-margin sales to rental-car fleets.

GM, under pressure to deflate bloated inventories while controlling incentive spending, is expected to turn in a second-straight monthly sales percentage decline in the double digits. Tuesday, the largest U.S. auto maker swung to a second-quarter profit, helped by strength in its international operations and a stronger performance at its core North American unit.

Ford, which surprised Wall Street with its first profit in two years last week, is expected to post a sales percentage drop in the mid- to upper single digits. Chief Executive Alan Mulally has warned investors of a tough second-half sales environment.

Detroit's Big Three have tried to wean themselves off costly incentives like rebates and no-interest loans. But increased incentives spending by Toyota and Honda Motor Co. (HMC) - also efforts to cope with weakened demand - have challenged that stance.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 11:20:19 AM

Crude hits a new all time high today, $78.77/bl Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 11:16:32 AM

Keene was talking about the NDX in his 10:55 post suggesting we will get a bounce to correct this selloff. Well here are some charts that could tell you when to get long the NDX. Once the 120 and 60 jtHMA charts turn green it is time to buy the Qs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 11:16:16 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 11:03:16 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/1/2007 10:55:11 AM

You've no doubt read about how oversold the market is. By many measures we're as or more oversold than the lows in 1998 after the LTCM market drop, Sept. 2001 and July 2002. Each of those lows saw significant rallies follow. One could argue that it's different this time since we're theoretically starting a new bear market leg down. But the rallies following similar oversold conditions tells us to be aware of the potential for a strong rally from here.

Markettells.com has some interesting data for the NDX. Yesterday it closed below its Bollinger Band, so 2 standard deviations away from its 20-dma (which the others have already done), and if it closes below it again today (so below 1926) the data shows a high probability for the NDX to be higher 3 weeks from now. When I look at the wave pattern the only way I can see a higher price 3 weeks from now is for the market to be pressing to new highs. A bounce to correct this decline should last at most about a week so a high 3 weeks from now would mean a new rally leg.

And that brings me to the current wave pattern. I'm using SPX as the example here and showing both the bullish and bearish wave counts again on its daily chart: Link The bearish wave count is the one I've been showing--we should get a bounce to correct the decline and then a resumption of the decline in a stronger leg down.

The bullish wave count says the current leg down is finishing up an A-B-C correction that started from the June 1st high. This wave count assumes the rally from August 2004 started with nested 1st and 2nd waves which is why the Feb-Mar decline would have been a 4th wave correction and now the June-July decline would be a larger degree 4th wave correction with the final 5th wave to a new high yet to come.

Assuming we'll get a bounce started then it will be a good opportunity to get long for the multi-day upward correction and then test the short side after a 3-wave move up. But I'm going to be keeping the bullish wave count on the charts so that we stay aware of the possibility that we may not have seen THE high for the market yet.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:51:54 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:50:34 AM

Homebuilders plunging -6.62% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:49:09 AM

EIA Weekly Gross Inputs, Crude Oil Inputs, Refinery Op. Capacity, Pct. Utilization of Refinery Op. Capacity (%) and # Days Supply Crude Oil Table that I keep at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:41:14 AM

Heating Oil stockpiles rose by 987,000 barrels to 35.46 million barrels. Still down 24.82 million barrels, or -44.01% from year-ago levels.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:39:46 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Total Gasoline, Reformulated Gasoline, Total Distillate, Diesel and Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Table that I keep at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:29:15 AM

Big draw in Crude Oil ... 6.5 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:28:49 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $59.15 +1.07% ... big move here. Achieves its bullish vertical count. Oil futures' bullish vertical counts much higher than current price.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:27:59 AM

Chrysler deal getting done today.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 10:25:17 AM

Here is the Wilshire 5000's jtHMA, very similar to the S&P's charts. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:24:43 AM

US ISM: July Mfg Pace Slowest In Four Months.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:24:21 AM

US ISM July Inventories Index 48.5 Vs. June 45.3

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:23:52 AM

US ISM July Production Index 55.6 Vs. June 62.9

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:23:31 AM

US ISM July New Orders Index 57.5 Vs. June 60.3

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:23:09 AM

US ISM July Employment Index 50.2 Vs. Jun 51.1

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:22:43 AM

US ISM July Prices Index 65.0 Vs. June 68.0

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:22:05 AM

US ISM July Mfg Business Index 53.8 ... Consensus was 55.8

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:21:31 AM

US June Pending Home Sales -8.6% From June 2006

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 10:21:17 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. housing market showed signs of life in June, with contract signings on existing homes climbing by 5% -- the most in more than three years, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday.

However, pending sales are still 8.6% below the pace seen during June 2006, suggesting the real-estate market still has distance to climb back from its slump.

An increase in pending home sales, the realtors group said, was seen in all four major regions of the United States during June: up by 8.6% in the West, by 4.7% in the South, by 3.5% in the Midwest and by 3.1% in the Northeast.

Lawrence Yun, the NAR's senior economist, said it's too early to say if home sales have "passed bottom

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 10:20:27 AM

The NDX's weekly jtHMA however has not turned red and we can take a long here if the 120/60 charts turn back green. Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 10:18:20 AM

So even if the 120/60 charts turn back green now we cannot take a long swing type trade because the weekly has turned red. This is the chart I use to determine which way I take trades. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:18:07 AM

Per my 10:04:17 ... I should probably have said "not as weak" as I would have thought.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:17:12 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 10:13:36 AM

S&P's support is also hanging on. It looks like the 200EMA has saved the day - so far. I suspect the rest of the day will be bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 10:08:23 AM

TRIn falling to new daily lows at 0.79 so bears beware.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:04:17 AM

Yesterday's NH/NL ratios a little "stronger" than I would have thought.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:03:35 AM

NASDAQ NH/NL 31:158

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:03:24 AM

NYSE NH/NL 14:177

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:02:48 AM

NASDAQ a/d 880/1,797

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:02:37 AM

NYSE a/d 902/2,015

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 10:02:20 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 9:55:54 AM

The internals are very clearly bearish. Link

Keene Little : 8/1/2007 9:54:35 AM

The false rally was immediately sold into and it's a long drop back down to test the overnight lows. But it doesn't have to get that low since the cash indices show strong support before that would happen. For example, SPX has solid support at its 200-dma and uptrend line from July in the 1447-1449 area where it is now (could get an under-throw though). So stay aware of another sharp reversal at any time, this time back to the upside.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 9:54:14 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- International stocks dropped on Wednesday as investors were again rattled by credit-market concerns, with a warning from the tenth-largest U.S. mortgage lender that it can't pay its creditors and another from Australia's Macquarie Bank of heavy losses in one of its funds providing the latest reasons for investor nervousness.

Markets last week saw heavy losses as several bond deals couldn't get sold to investors, igniting concerns that a wave of private-equity interest that has helped stocks to rise for much of 2007 will come to a halt.

"It's a sentiment-driven market," said Peter Dixon, strategist at Commerzbank in London, noting the big gains in Europe on Tuesday followed by the sharp drop on Wednesday.

"There's no information that could justify this kind of volatility."

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 9:52:40 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell Wednesday, weighed down by a global rise in risk aversion sparked by renewed credit market concerns that sent international stocks tumbling. Gold for December delivery shed $1.60 at $677.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It fell as low as $670.60 earlier in the session. On Tuesday, gold closed up $2.80 at $666.90 an ounce

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 9:51:50 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Oil futures dropped below $78 a barrel before the release of weekly energy inventory data on Wednesday. Crude-oil inventories probably declined, while gasoline and distillate stocks probably rose, according to analyst estimates. Crude futures were trading 50 cents lower at $77.71 a barrel.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 9:50:14 AM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $210.00

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 9:49:40 AM

AD line is a very bearish -1524

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 9:48:36 AM

Here is the strongest market, the DOW. Support is hanging on by its teeth. Link

Keene Little : 8/1/2007 9:38:52 AM

Nice bit of short covering right from the start. Whether it will hold is the question.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 9:38:02 AM

Swing trade short stop alert ... for Research in Motion (RIMM) $215

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2007 9:33:53 AM

Swing trade short lower stop alert ... for Research in Motion (RIMM) $212.76 -0.61% ... to $215.00.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 9:30:23 AM

The Russell is the weakest of all the markets we watch here in the monitor and has a lot of resistance it will need to overcome if it wants to make new yearly highs this year. Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 9:22:24 AM

Good morning all. American index markets all broke their PDLs and only ER has been able to regain its PDR. The large cap are finding their PDLs as resistance so far. I suspect the AD line will open quite bearish this morning. Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2007 9:18:52 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Employment in the U.S. private sector grew by 48,000 in July, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday suggesting nonfarm payrolls may have grown much slower than the 133,000 anticipated by economists.

Adding in some 25,000 government jobs, the ADP report suggests nonfarm payrolls grew by about 73,000 in July. The Labor Department will report on the nonfarm payrolls number on Friday.

"This month's ADP National Employment Report suggests a deceleration of employment," said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomics Advisers, the economics firm that designed and computes the report from anonymous payroll data provided by Automatic Data Processing

Keene Little : 8/1/2007 9:00:07 AM

Looks like they just might be able to drive futures back to at least near the flat line before the cash market opens. But that leaves all kinds of questions. Is this being manipulated higher in the low-volume premarket futures? Is it being done so that they will be able to unload stocks after the cash market opens at better prices? Will we see a retest of the overnight lows (that would be a 20-pt drop in ES if it gets back to the flat line for the open)? Be very careful this morning.

Keene Little : 8/1/2007 8:29:51 AM

Equity futures have rallied off their lows put in around 4:30 AM with ES up about 10 points of its low and yet still 10 points below yesterday's close. To say overnight price action was bearish would be an understatement. We wait for the cash market to open to see if there will be follow through to the downside. I still think caution is advised for a potential reversal day today back to the upside.

Keene Little : 8/1/2007 8:26:42 AM

Jeff, thanks for the reminder on the change in month for the pivot tables. I also changed gold to reflect the new front month contract of December: Link and Link

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