Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Keene Little : 8/3/2007 11:28:44 PM

Friday's new low for SPX and the RUT open up a few possible wave counts. One is that we're going to see relentless selling next week as a result of the spreading contagion from the credit crunch, hedge fund closings, mortgage bank failures and leveraged buyouts coming to a screeching halt. We haven't experienced this level of credit creation before, nor all the exotic financial instruments that have been created and therefore we really don't know how the unwinding will proceed.

You should stay aware of the danger from a potential market collapse but it's not a high-odds scenario to play. Because the DOW did not make a new low (nor did the NDX), it's still possible for these to be showing us that we'll get another leg up as part of a 3-wave bounce from Monday's low: Link

It's still possible we'll get another rally leg that takes us to new highs but that's looking much less likely at this point. The bounce pattern strongly suggests we've seen the top of the bull market. I show a strong rally for the 2nd leg up (wave-C of the 2nd wave correction) where it would equal 162% of the 1st leg at 13769. It doesn't have to get that high but it's the potential (likely from some strong short covering).

SPX maintains the same potential wave counts as shown for the DOW. But because it made a new low, it raises the possibility that Friday's leg down is the one that's completing the decline from July 17th. The bullish divergences at the new lows since Monday support this wave count (dark red). If true then a little consolidation and another minor low should complete it, perhaps down to about 1420. From there the larger correction of the decline would start.

NDX looks like the DOW and the RUT looks like SPX. On Tuesday and Wednesday I thought the RUT needed another leg down and sure enough we got it. Now it's approaching its uptrend line from August 2004, near 750, and I think this is where it will find support: Link

Keene Little : 8/3/2007 10:43:35 PM

Monday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 8/3/2007 10:00:02 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 9:41:49 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

ACH-WF are bid $0.35.

OLN-AD are bid $2.15.

SFB-TP are offered $3.70.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 5:57:20 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 5:42:49 PM

KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) 101.84 -4.06% ... closes at new 52-week low.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 5:41:51 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 340.48 -4.42% ... closes at new 52-week low.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 5:14:42 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 8/3/2007 4:46:23 PM

Enjoy the weekend Jane....I plan on having a few beers...WOW what a week!

Tab Gilles : 8/3/2007 4:44:55 PM

NDX lets see if this selling continues next week...still need 1850 to get about a 10% correction. Link

RUT has already corrected 10% may go lower as small cap takes more of a hit. Link

SPX needs to see 1400 (March low) for 10%. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 3:59:08 PM

Swamped with downside alerts ...

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 3:56:04 PM

Everyone have a good weekend and we will see you back here bright and early Monday morning.

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 3:54:05 PM

Here are your charts of the VIX and SPX. I have decided to start using the SPX since more subscribers can relate to this index than the eminis futures of the SPX, the ES. Link

Keene Little : 8/3/2007 3:49:56 PM

Just no interest in buying this market. Probably fear of who else is going to report a busted hedge fund over the weekend. But the test of the low for SPX looks as though it's going to leave another bullish divergence so barring any negative surprises over the weekend I suspect we'll finally get the next rally leg started. It might even excite a lot of people that it will look like the lows put in in March and make them think we've got new highs coming.

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 3:49:46 PM

Here is the Wilshire 5000, testing the August 1st low. Link

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 3:45:51 PM

SPX is should find support at its August 1st lows. Link

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 3:44:36 PM

Oh my goodness gracious RUT has hit 760 and then some. Wow Link

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 3:38:31 PM

Selling my QQQQ calls now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 3:31:04 PM

YM 13,335 ... probes DAILY S2/MONTHLY 61.8%

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 3:26:54 PM

BSC Call (redording) Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 3:14:22 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 3:10:42 PM

The Qs 60 jtHMA charts have now turned red so I am keeping my eye on the 120 minute chart. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 3:03:56 PM

RUT.X alert! 763.76 -2.58% .... see yesterday's MM

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 3:02:16 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:59:33 PM

YM 13,411 ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:58:49 PM

Keene! ... got my YM feed back now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:54:35 PM

XLF $32.66

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:54:19 PM

RUT.X 765.74 ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:54:06 PM

VIX 23.03

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:53:52 PM

PHF $9.25 ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:53:39 PM

10-year Yield 4.702% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:53:23 PM

SPY $145.50

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:53:06 PM

BSC $109.75 -5.08% ...

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 2:52:51 PM

The SPX reached a high of 1555 in July. Some believe a bear market begins when a market loses 10% so that would be 1555 - 155 = 1400. Others believe, like Bob Brinker of the Markettimer, that a bear market starts at a 20% decline. That would be 1555 - 311 = 1244. If the SPX revisits the March lows at 1363 that would be a 12% decline and I guess some would believe we have entered a bear market whereas others would not if the SPX does revisit that level.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:52:45 PM

BSC ... end of call.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:51:19 PM

BSC $108.61 -6.07% ....

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:50:24 PM

200-day SMA Alert! SPY $145.11 ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:50:03 PM

BSC ... no firm answer on how they are marking to market some securities.

Tab Gilles : 8/3/2007 2:49:36 PM

He was screamimg that Bernanke has no idea how bad things are out there. That the Fed is asleep.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:49:03 PM

BSC ... virtually "no exposure" to prime broker market.

Tab Gilles : 8/3/2007 2:48:30 PM


Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:48:08 PM

BSC ... June was showing some improvement ... July "very, very difficult"

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 2:47:50 PM

It would certainly hurt if the SPX were to revisit those March though. Link

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 2:46:11 PM

Looks like the Russell 2000 has a very good chance of retesting its March lows at 760.00. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:46:21 PM

BSC ... leveraged debt and mortgage backed business is "most difficult."

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:45:28 PM

BSC ... equity franchise "very strong" ... domestic and global.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:43:30 PM

Best question of the session in my opinion. Something I've been wondering about.

Keene Little : 8/3/2007 2:43:19 PM

SPX keeps walking down its broken downtrend line and has almost made it back down to its uptrend line from March, near 1449. Will it hold? Maybe a launch from here into the close to save the day. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:43:02 PM

BSC ... not seeing/hearing of any "reputational issues" ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:42:29 PM

BSC ... questions regarding "reputational issues"

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:40:37 PM

10-year ($TNX.X) -4.4 bp at 4.709% ... still "defensive" in my opinion. WEEKLY S1 just below. ... Treasury market closes in 20 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:37:06 PM

BSC ... subprime revenue about 3% of ....

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:36:24 PM

BSC ... when credit market will turn around is hard to predict. Eventually market will find reward worth risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:34:57 PM

BSC ... If S&P had greater concern, would have mentioned. S&P has same data as other rating agencies.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:34:09 PM

BSC ... S&P has good reputation.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:33:47 PM

BSC ... business will be "challenging" in core business next couple of quarters.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:32:50 PM

CNOOC (CEO) $115.53 -0.99% ... slips below correlative WEEKLY Pivot and conventional 19.1% retracement ($116.05) of 2/27/07 low close to recent all-time high close.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:31:00 PM

Monster Worldwide (MNST) $35.28 -4.90% ... probes its 09/27/06 low close.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:30:06 PM

BSC ... feels "good" about Hilton deal.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:28:50 PM

BSC ... WKLY S1 $116.54 (see alert) ... WKLY S2 $109.76.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:28:18 PM

BSC $109.00 ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:28:06 PM

BSC ... July revenue under "significant" pressure ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:27:41 PM

BSC ... still hard to predict what August looks like. Expects ROE to be at low end of historical range.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:26:54 PM

BSC ... Category mark downs .... (no specifics) ... Categories marked down have hedges marked up.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:25:59 PM

BSC ... thinks hedges have "worked well" ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:25:28 PM

BSC $110.25 -4.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:24:48 PM

BSC ... fixed income markets "worst that I've seen" ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:24:05 PM

BSC ... hedge fund "esentially" fully collaterized ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:22:18 PM

BSC ... forecasting earnings at lower end of historical range.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:19:38 PM

BSC $111.77 -3.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:19:20 PM

BSC conference call underway ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:04:25 PM

XLF $33.15 -1.01% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:02:31 PM

RUT.X 775.33 -1.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:02:16 PM

VIX.X 22.07 +4.00% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:01:58 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.30 +3.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:01:40 PM

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) down 3.0 bp at 4.723% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:01:16 PM

SPY $146.50 -0.74% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 2:00:57 PM

Bear Stearns (BSC) alert! $115.63 (unch) ... Session low has been $106.66.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 1:55:22 PM

Energy Futures Benchmark 01:20 PM EDT at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 1:49:34 PM

Energy Futures Benchmark from 04/03/07) Link

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 1:49:00 PM

Now I want to know now is how did Linda remember what McMillan wrote last week. I surely didn't. :)

Keene Little : 8/3/2007 1:48:39 PM

Price is just drifting lower at this point looks like it could head lower into the close. But the whole pullback continues to look corrective but we may have to wait until Monday for another rally leg.

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 1:48:21 PM

Volatility" has been the buzzword for the media and many others in describing this market. The implication, of course, is that if the market just wasn't so volatile, everything would be okay. That is wrong on many levels, but is the panacea that is being fed to the masses. In reality, the market is volatility because things are wrong; volatility is not the cause of it, but the reaction to it.

$SPX has had some wide swings of late, but even so it has been able to set up some clear levels of support and resistance. We have noted for some time that 1490 was a support level, for it was the level at which the index bottomed several times in May and June. Usually, when a support level is broken, it becomes resistance. That is exactly what has happened. The first strong rally in the current decline occurred on Monday and Tuesday of this week, and once $SPX reached the 1490 level, it was repelled strongly, falling about 50 points until it found some support near 1440 on Wednesday. Since then, we've rallied, making 1440 a support area. That makes some sense, because it is the level from whence the April - July bull leg erupted several months ago. We expect that support level to be retested in the near future. If it doesn't hold, then there should be some support in the 1410-1420 area, and finally there is su pport near the March bottoms at 1380. A decline of that magnitude would mean that a 10% correction had taken place -- something that is long overdue.

The equity-only put-call ratios are bearish. They were meandering a bit over the past couple of weeks, but now they have moved higher. They are signaling intermediate-term caution, and it is quite likely that they will rise for a while, eventually turning bullish (i.e., rolling over) from higher levels several weeks from now, or later.

Market breadth has been abysmal for some time now, and it really took a beating on the big declining days of last week. However, even this week, when the Dow was up 100 or more, breadth struggled to confirm that bullishness. As a result, the breadth oscillators remain oversold. In one sense, that's good, because they were so deeply oversold that sharp, but short-lived rallies where likely. We've already had a couple of these. Also, the oscillators reached low extremes only seen a few times in the past -- all near major bottoms (September 2001, July 2002, May 2004, and June 2006). Of course, none of those was a "V" bottom; the market had to do a lot of work to complete a bottom each time (and we expect that it will have to do the same this time), but at least the picture began to improve shortly after the severely negative breadth readings. It will take another day or two of seeing more advances than declines be fore the breadth oscillators officially turn bullish.

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) soared to levels not seen since 2003 (and they were on their way down through these levels at that time). A spike peak in $VIX is a buy signal, and so we are likely not far from that now -- although it hasn't been confirmed yet. So, for now, enjoy this short-term rally, but don't expect it to last. The true test will come when $SPX declines towards 1440 again.

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 1:47:49 PM

I just got an email from Linda and she said the McMillan weekly commentary I just posted was from last week. Well she was right and I just received the correct one now. Tks Linda.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 1:48:06 PM


DJ- Forecasters trim expectations by two storms and one hurricane, but say the season will be "much more active" than the 50-year average. They now expect 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes.

On April 3, 2007 (see MM @ 09:58:58) CSU's initial forecast was for 17 named, 9 hurricanes, 5 intense.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 1:41:25 PM


DJ- DaimlerChrysler says it will back the financing of private equity company's purchase of Chrysler as it finalized the deal. Both companies will subscribe $2 billion of second line debt for Chrysler; DaimlerChrysler's portion will be $1.5 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 1:40:01 PM


DJ- Shares drop 4% after lender says its main mortgage business has access to nearly $50 billion of "highly-reliable" short-term funding as a cushion and that it has experienced no disruption in financing its day-to-day operations.

CFC $25.30 -5.49% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 1:39:01 PM


DJ- Shares drop 50% after mortgage lender, blaming its recent liquidity issues, cuts its employee base to about 750 from more than 7,000, effective today, ceases taking mortgage applications but maintains its thrift and servicing businesses.

AHM $0.73 -49.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 1:17:56 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 1:04:41 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 12:55:55 PM

I will remain long QQQQ calls until the jtHMA on the 120 minute chart turns red. As you can see even the 60 has not yet turned red. Link

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 12:53:40 PM

iIt is starting to look like the DOW will need to break its August 1st lows before it takes off to new yearly highs.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 12:30:06 PM

Discolsure: I currently hold both a bullish and bearish position in CEO.

Keene Little : 8/3/2007 12:29:44 PM

The NDX is the one index keeping me cautious about today since it could easily pull back further before setting up another rally leg. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 12:29:16 PM

Swing trade put option alert! ... for one (1) of the CNOOC Ltd. CEO Dec $110 Put (CEO-XB) at the offer of $6.90. ($6.50 x $6.90)

CEO $116.46 -0.19%.

No stop for now, target $93.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 12:07:37 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $140.42 -1.73% Link ... Gave a double bottom sell signal on Wednesday at $142. Bearish vertical count currently hints at $122.

Trade blotter had us long PTR-FD on 3/23 and 3/29 with exits on 3/30 and 5/4/07. Long again on 6/5 with PTR-II and exit on 6/26. Sold CC on 6/20 closed 6/28.

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 11:55:38 AM

McMillan's weekly commentary. Several factors came together this week to produce a very nasty decline. The over-riding technical factor, in my opinion, was the breaking of the 1535 level on $SPX. If you'll recall, when both the Dow and $SPX broke out to new all-time highs (was it really only two short weeks ago?), $SPX left behind a well-defined support level at 1535-1540. This past Tuesday, when the market started its sharp decline, it was clearly noticeable that selling accelerated greatly as soon as the 1535 level was penetrated on the downside.

The equity-only put-call ratios have been neutral of late, as they have not trended in either direction. True, they are on the lower part of their charts, which is overbought territory, and there were sell signals a month or so ago, but recent action has not been conclusive from these indicators. Now, the standard ratio is back on a sell signal again.

Market breadth has not been a particularly useful indicator for some time. It has mostly just followed whatever the market was doing. But in the last couple of weeks, breadth diverged from the broad market. It did not rise to new highs when the Dow and $SPX did. But now breadth has become more meaningful. Currently, both breadth is extremely oversold. While this means that sharp, but short-lived rallies are possible, it is most definitely not a buy signal. Some of the worst declines occur while conditions are "oversold."

Volatility has continued to rise. $VIX spiked up to above 23 today, its highest reading since June 2006 -- and then April 2003 before that. It closed at 20.74, 2.62 below its peak. A spike peak in $VIX would be a buy signal. It hasn't quite qualified for that yet -- and often the very first spike peak is not the eventual peak -- but a close below 20 by $VIX would qualify as a spike peak buy signal.

To summarize the technical indicators then: the $SPX chart is bearish, having broken out on the downside; breadth is deeply oversold, but not yet on a buy signal; $VIX is potentially about to give a spike peak buy signal; and the equity-only put-call ratios are bearish. This adds up to an intermediate term bearish signal. However, because of the extreme oversold conditions in both $VIX and breadth, sharp but short-lived rallies are possible.

One plausible scenario is that the market rallies enough to satisfy the short term signals and work off the oversold conditions, and then declines to retest today's lows near $SPX 1465. If that holds and if the put-call ratios can roll over to buy signals, that might be the end of the decline. If not, a true correction -- which historically has been defined as a decline of 10% -- might well emerge, taking $SPX down to 1400 or slightly lower.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 11:53:43 AM

CNOOC Ltd. (CEO) $116.88 +0.16% Link

Keene Little : 8/3/2007 11:32:34 AM

From an EW perspective oil is doing what it needs to do in order to finish its wave count and tag its upside Fib projection at 80.67. The current pullback should be followed by a final move higher and then it will start at least a larger pullback if not start a more serious decline. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 11:21:45 AM

11:05 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals Link

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 11:18:28 AM

Crude is off the all time highs it made August 1st but if you put a fib retracement on the rally from the $67.00/bl support you will see it is only testing the 23.60% level. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 11:07:43 AM

11:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/3/2007 10:37:58 AM

This new low should do it. Be ready for a turn back to the upside.

Keene Little : 8/3/2007 10:33:19 AM

It looks like the NDX is the one playing the leader today. After banging its head against trend line resistance it has pulled back and the others have tagged along. SPX has now pulled back for what looks like will be another test of its broken downtrend line (it looks like it needs another small drop to a minor new low for today's decline to finish): Link

It should get another leg up in its bounce and then the question will be whether the 2nd wave correction will be over with a new high (light red wave count) or if we'll get a larger choppy climb up to a higher retracement next week (dark red count). I'm leaning towards the dark red count for now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 10:24:59 AM

Internal Trivia (answers) from yesterday at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 10:20:36 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Nonmanufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy expanded at a slightly slower pace during July, the Institute for Supply Management reported Friday. The ISM nonmanufacturing index fell to 55.8% from 60.7% in June. The drop was larger than expected. Economists were looking the index to decline to 58.8%. The headline index is not a weighted average of the survey's other key components. New orders fell to 52.8% from 56.9%. The employment index fell to 51.7% from 55.0%. On the positive side, order backlogs rose. Inventories were seen as too high. Inflation pressures eased. The price index fell to 61.3% from 65.5% in the previous month.

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 10:16:33 AM

Bear Stearns (BSC) $107.06 -7.45% ...

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 10:16:07 AM

Here is a chart of the DOW during the Shanghai surprise last March. Notice how the DOW reached a low on March 5th rallied a bit then made another low March 14th before starting its rally to make new yearly and all time highs. Link

Now here is the chart of the DOW today. Makes you wonder if it will have to break the lows made August 1st before it rallies to new yearly and all time highs again, which I think it will do. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/3/2007 10:15:51 AM

S&P Outlook Now Negative On Bear Stearns, Was Stable ... Reuters Story Link

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 10:09:35 AM

The Qs jtHMA charts are still long. I will be stopping out of my long Q calls if the 120 minute turns back red but as you can see that has not happened yet. Link

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 10:03:21 AM

U.S. July ISM services below consensus 58.8%

U.S. July ISM services 55.8% vs 60.7% in June

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 9:55:32 AM

The DOW seems to have found resistance at its 50EMA. This is not good for the bulls for as you can see that 50EMA was pretty good support up to now. Link

Keene Little : 8/3/2007 9:44:55 AM

The pullback in the DOW and SPX from yesterday afternoon's high looks corrective (bull flag) and suggests we'll see the market head higher. But yesterday afternoon's lows need to hold in order for that to be true.

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 9:43:16 AM

AD line is a neutral to bearish -318.

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 9:34:26 AM

All markets are now testing overnight lows.

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 9:24:24 AM

The US $ down and Gold is up so those two were in sync overnight.

Take note of the DAX though. All the American indexes hovered at their PDHs overnight but the DAX was decidedly bearish and actually tested its PDL during its overnight session. Link

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 9:16:04 AM

WE now await the 10:00a.m. July ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Index. Expected: 59.0. Previous: 60.7.

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 9:15:06 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Troubled lender American Home Mortgage Investment late Thursday said it's going to lay off over 6,000 workers and stop taking mortgage applications as it struggles to avoid bankruptcy.

American Home (AHM) , which was the country's tenth largest mortgage lender, said it's cutting its employee base from over 7,000 to approximately 750, but will maintain its thrift and servicing businesses.

"The employees affected should understand that this is not a reflection on their efforts or their productivity," CEO Michael Strauss in a statement.

"Unfortunately, the market conditions in both the secondary mortgage market as well as the national real estate market have deteriorated to the point that we have no realistic alternative."

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 9:11:13 AM

The overnight session was a consolidation as PDHs suggesting to me we will see higher highs intraday. Link

Jane Fox : 8/3/2007 9:05:02 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- U.S. employment growth slowed and the jobless rate ticked up last month as job losses in manufacturing, construction and government offset healthy gains in many services industries, suggesting that the economy started the third quarter on a softer note after robust growth in the second quarter.

Wage gains remained largely contained, suggesting that labor markets pose less of an inflation risk. However, while Friday's data suggest more balance between growth and inflation risks, Federal Reserve policymakers will likely want to see more evidence before dropping their anti-inflation bias.

Nonfarm payrolls increased just 92,000 in July, down from 126,000 in June and 188,000 in May, the Labor Department said Friday. Previous reports showed job growth of 132,000 in June and 190,000 in May. Monthly job growth has averaged 136,000 so far this year.

The unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 4.6%.

Keene Little : 8/3/2007 8:36:09 AM

With NDX looking like it could pull back today and the others looking like they should continue their rally, it might mean we've got a day of chop ahead of us.

Keene Little : 8/3/2007 8:34:39 AM

It looks like the latter as futures sold off after the reports.

Keene Little : 8/3/2007 8:28:45 AM

Relatively speaking we had a very quiet overnight session in the futures. ES cycled about 5 points high to low and is currently at the high end. Equity futures are getting a little bump just before the 8:30 reports so either somebody knows something and we're going to see a rally or else they're preparing for a spike down by getting futures as high as possible first.

Market Monitor Archives