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Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 1:46:58 AM

RUT.X ... Two chart montage on 30-minute intervals. An example of "when weakness finds strength." Conventional retracement on left, and MONTHLY Pivot on Right. How our SPY OPTIONS were EXITED today. Link

Only "explanation" for why SPY traded as it did today. When SPY took out morning low (stopped our SFB-TP) is should have fallen to its MONTHLY S1 shouldn't it?

Banks were too strong, RUT.X was too strong. SPY ends up too strong.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 11:28:45 PM

INDU 50-point box Link

OEX 5-point box Link

NDX 20-point box Link

SPX 10-point box Link

RUT.X 4-point box Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 11:15:25 PM

Email from a friend ... I contacted both Countrywide and Wells Fargo last week about refinancing my 2nd on the Colo. house with a 30-year home equity loan of $25,000 for a second residence. The Countrywide quote had closing costs of approx. $485 and points of approx. $530 to buy the rate down from 9.125% to 7.875% which would have only lowered my monthly payment by about $20 vs. my current payment on the existing 2nd. Wells Fargo's was at $200-450 for closing costs at 9.375 and had nothing close on a rate buy down. So I didn't do it with either. Any thoughts, suggestions? I think rates went way up on last Thurs. and Friday.

I believe the rates would have been lower for a primary residence.

Let me know what you think.

Reply: Hey, I'd sit tight on any "refinancing" at this point. Credit markets are very soft right now until we get further word out of Bear Stearns (NYSE:BSC).

Pricing even for VERY GOOD CREDIT SCORES like yours is terrible right now, even corporations with very strong balance sheets have been canceling their debt offerings due to bond market conditions, which have been negatively impacted by various mortgage-related events.

Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) said today that it was set to ask regulators for permission to extend some loans, above the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's $727 billion ceiling.

Having taken some MASSIVE profits in your account on Marathon Oil (MRO) $49.24 -1.14% from $60.00 a couple of weeks ago, I'd just sit things out near-term.

Wait for the credit markets to firm up for now. May take a few months at a minimum. As long as you're "fixed" you should be OK.

There's NO WAY a good credit score should be having to BUY DOWN rates in my opinion. The ONLY REASON you, or other market participants "have to" is that there is poor liquidity in the credit markets currently.

Let them settle down a bit (next couple of months).

Keep crunching the numbers ... Countrywide ... Paying $1,015 today in order to save $20/month? Payout is $1,015 / $20 = 50 months!

Heck, there's probably a bank out there somewhere that has a 1-year CD with an APR of 5.00%.

Keene Little : 8/6/2007 11:10:43 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

The DOW is nearing its first Fib projection at 13525 where the bounce off last Wednesday's low would have two equal legs up. If we get a small consolidation on Tuesday and then a final move higher into FOMC then stay aware of the possibility that a post-FOMC selloff could get severe. Otherwise pressing higher towards 13700 should be in the works. Link Not shown on this chart, nor on the NDX chart below, but is shown for SPX, we could get a little higher and then a pullback before proceeding higher again. I believe we've seen the market highs but if the DOW rallies above 13820 then the bullish (green) wave count would be a much stronger likelihood.

NDX looks similar and I'm showing the possibility for the current leg up to be finishing a 3-wave A-B-C bounce off last Wednesday's low. The Fib projection just under 2004 (2nd leg up = 162% of the 1st leg up) matches nicely with the 62% retracement of the decline. Link

If SPX can rally a little further it will run into Fib and price level resistance in the 1487-1490 area. By the dark red wave count it should then pull back before proceeding higher again into next week. By this count it would appear there will be a post-FOMC rally but then no follow through for a couple of days before rallying again to an upside target near 1506. Link

The daily chart of SPX shows the bullish (green) and bearish (dark red) wave counts and how they fit the larger picture. Link The daily chart of the RUT shows price bounced off its uptrend line from April 2004 and could now bounce up to its 200-dma near 804: Link

That uptrend line from April 2004 is shown on this weekly chart as the red trend line. The bigger pattern from 2002 looks like a bearish ascending wedge and the RUT just broke down through the bottom of it and may be coming back up for a retest (near 770): Link

The fact that the 100 weekly moving average is still holding (as it has since 2004) is bullish. But breaking below the March low is the first time it's had a lower low on a significant pullback since the 2002 low. That's an important change in behavior and is bearish.

OI Technical Staff : 8/6/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 7:56:18 PM

Fannie Mae Wants Higher Mortgage Cap ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 6:24:32 PM

That goes back several months to Treasury Secretary warning legislators NOT to over regulate.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 6:13:35 PM

Fannie Mae (FNM) $62.50 +10.36% ... BIGGEST story of the day right there.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 6:11:37 PM

FANNIE MAE SEEKS OK FOR HIGHER LOAN PURCHASES

DJ- Mortgage lender asks regulators to raise the maximum amount of home mortgages and related securities it can hold in its investment portfolio as a way to provide more liquidity in the market.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 5:45:35 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $136.91 -0.80% ... did trade as low as $134.19 today, so chart additional Os to $136.

PnF chart from Friday's MM (12:07:37 PM) Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 5:42:30 PM

CNOOC (CEO) $112.10 -1.25% ... Stock did trade $110 today, so it gets a reversing lower PnF sell signal. Bearish vertical count column now from $118 to $110. BVC established to $98.

PnF chart from Friday's MM (11:53:43 AM) Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 5:37:05 PM

JNJ ... StockCharts.com's PnF chart Link ... "Adjusted" for payment of historical stock dividends.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 5:35:46 PM

JNJ PnF chart Link ... Still needs a trade at $63.00 for a 3-box reversal higher. Bull RISK to sell signal is $3.30. Potential bull REWARD to bullish vertical count ($71) is $8.70.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 5:22:39 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

JNJ $62.30 +2.89% ... post-profile high!

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 5:09:32 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 4:58:59 PM

Check out both the NYSE and NASDAQ NH/NL ratios.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 4:58:26 PM

That's what I'm thinking Keene ... Tonight's wrap title ... Majors Stabilze as Financials Get a Bounce (Part II)

Last Monday's Market Wrap .. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 4:55:40 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/6/2007 3:59:11 PM

When I gave the upside Fib projection for the DOW at 13751, that's now just another ho-hum 300-point day away.

Keene Little : 8/6/2007 3:57:51 PM

The DOW has now recovered all of Friday's late-afternoon dive. What they hated then they obviously love them now. The shorts they are a runnin'.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 3:46:47 PM

BIX.X alert! ... 359.68 +5.6% ... WEEKLY R1. BIIIIG test this early in the week.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 3:44:46 PM

European Markets: at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 3:40:19 PM

In the meantime though I was not sweating it and checking my position every 5 minutes and there is a lot to be said for peace of mind.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 3:40:18 PM

Asian Markets: at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 3:39:12 PM

It looks like I could have stayed long Q calls with a stop just below the August 1st lows instead of bailing when the 120 minute turned back red.

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 3:36:23 PM

Now here is something interesting. The 120 jtHMA Qs chart has turned green but the 60 has not. I will get back into Q calls once they both turn back green. Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 3:34:27 PM

Do you remember back in March when everyone was saying the bear market has arrived and we have seen the yearly highs? Then remember how we all sat in front of our charts with our mouths wide open when the DOW and S&P closed back above its 50EMA and never looked back until they both reached not only new yearly highs but new all time highs?

If there is one thing I have learned this year is "Do not discount the strength of the buyers out there."

Keene Little : 8/6/2007 3:30:54 PM

The RUT poked down through its uptrend line from August 2004 but recovered quickly. It could leave a bullish hammer candelstick at support today. Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 3:29:47 PM

In the same way I think the S&P will find resistance at 1490 I see the Wilshire 5000 will find resistance at 15000. Link

Keene Little : 8/6/2007 3:26:26 PM

The same pattern for the DOW that I just showed for NDX would have an upside projection to 12751 which would be greater than a 62% retracement (typical for the DOW) and just shy of a retest of its broken uptrend line from March: Link

Notice though that the first upside target would be at 13525 for two equal legs up in its bounce and a little less than a 50% retracement. And this kind of A-B-C correction could be completed this week easily whereas the one I showed for SPX would take about the next 2 weeks before it will be ready to tip back over. The reaction around and post FOMC may provide some clues in this regard.

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 3:25:31 PM

I think the S&P's 1490 is going to give it some trouble. Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 3:24:06 PM

Internals are quite bullish now but remember the AD line is still under 0. In any case look at the TRIN at 0.57. Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 3:21:53 PM

All markets have now broken to new daily highs but I don't think PDHs are in too much jeopardy of breaking today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 3:17:45 PM

TRIN alert! ... 0.55 -82.91% ... recent weeks has seen selling come in.

Keene Little : 8/6/2007 3:16:57 PM

The NDX and DOW still maintain a more plausible wave count that calls for just a sharp leg up to finish an A-B-C correction that started from last Wednesday's low. A typical upside target for the kind of correction that this would be (an expanded flat) would take the 2nd leg up to 162% of the 1st leg up. For NDX that would give us an upside target just under 2004 which is right on top of a 50% retracement. Nice correlation there. Link

If we get a sharp rally up to that level then I think it will be a good opportunity to test the short side. If it pulls back very correctively then we'll know it's probably headed higher again. But if it's going to be the end of the correction then the next leg down will put the first wave to shame so the short side will be worth the test.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 3:15:08 PM

Bulls are also waiting for the WEAKEST ... RUT.X 765.47 +1.32% to close above its WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 3:12:58 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 3:12:14 PM

Bulls are waiting for the DOW to close above it gold 50EMA and then once again use it as support. Link

Keene Little : 8/6/2007 3:07:45 PM

SPX bounced briefly above its broken uptrend line from July 2006 and is stalled at right here. Assuming it can motor higher then there's an excellent chance we've seen the end of the 1st wave down. Link

The light red wave count calls for one leg higher as part of an A-B-C correction from last Monday but I don't favor that wave count. I also don't favor the bullish (green) wave count that calls for a new market high. The dark red count calling for an A-B-C bounce over the next 2 weeks is the higher probability (IMO). An upside target at 1506 for a 62% retracement would be a typical retracement for the 2nd wave correction.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 3:03:03 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 2:56:36 PM

ER's overnight highs were 766.20 and all ER has been able to muster intraday was 766.30.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 2:46:25 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 2:42:02 PM

VIX.X alert! 23.69 -6% ... WEEKLY Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 2:41:26 PM

BIX.X Alert! ... 357.39 +5%

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 2:40:57 PM

SPY $145.33 +1.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 2:40:28 PM

RUT.X Alert ! ... 760.06

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 2:24:11 PM

The RUT is the first market to break its daily highs but it was not a convincing break by any means. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 2:16:51 PM

VIX 24.24 -3.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 2:13:38 PM

Tough spot for me in here after SFB-TP got stopped at SPY $142.90 and SPY didn't fall to MONTHLY S1 (was going to close out SFB-UR there).

DDM $90.94

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 2:10:38 PM

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) ... up 2.1 bp at 4.721% ... DAILY Pivot right here at 4.722%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 2:09:21 PM

Swing trade put exit alert ... for the remaining S&P Depository Receipt SPY Sep $148 Put (SFB-UR) at the bid of $5.80.

SPY $144.57.

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 2:09:06 PM

Here's a quick look at the overnight charts and as you can see ER has not even tested its overnight highs. Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 2:02:07 PM

I would certainly not be trying to find a bottom today. IF you think we are in for a reversal I would wait until the internals get a little stronger. Link

Keene Little : 8/6/2007 1:59:26 PM

Since SPX has been one of the more negative indexes I continue to watch it for signs of life. After breaking below its uptrend line from July 2006 it bounced back up to it today and has pulled back. A rally to a new daily high from here would be a bullish sign otherwise it could continue to consolidate sideways or drop back down and give us a final low (at least I think it would be a final low that sets up a larger bounce). Consolidating in front of tomorrow's FOMC would be typical.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 1:52:06 PM

BKX.X finished Friday's session at 101.84 Link

Trading 104.41 +2.52% ... QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels are ... 97.13, 99.47, Piv= 104.08, 106.42, 111.03.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 1:48:30 PM

The KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) U.S. Market Watch "net change" for today is incorrect.

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 1:22:12 PM

Macd is confirming the higher highs made at 12:55 ET so I do not expect the swing low at 1:15 to hold. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 1:21:27 PM

UNITEDHEALTH UPS 2Q EPS ON MEDICARE REVISION

DJ- Consolidated net earnings rise to $1.23 billion, or 89c a share, from July report of $1.2 billion, or 87c a share, on favorable adjustments related to its 2006 Medicare business.

UNH $48.34 +1.76% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 1:18:20 PM

HOUSE PASSES $16B ENERGY TAX BILL

DJ- U.S. House of Representatives passes a $16 billion tax bill that would extend renewable energy tax credits and encourage energy efficiency, paying for itself by axing tax breaks to oil and gas companies.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 1:17:30 PM

INTEL SEES $300M TAX PAYMENTS IN 2007

DJ- Chip maker expects to settle or make payment on about $300 million of its income-tax liabilities during 2007. As of June 30, company had $1.2 billion of income-tax liabilities, according to SEC filing.

INTC $24.07 +0.62% ... #29 weighting in INDU/DIA/YM. #6 weighting in NDX/QQQQ/NQ

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 1:13:35 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 1:02:48 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 1:00:29 PM

UNITED TECH UNIT GETS $975M NASA PACT EXTENSION

DJ- United Technologies' Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne unit signs a $975 million contract extension with NASA to continue maintaining the space shuttle main engines through 2010.

UTX $74.26 +0.44% ... #6 weighting in INDU/YM/DIA

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 12:58:20 PM

COUNTRYWIDE NET AVAILABLE LIQUIDITY AT $186.5B

DJ- Largest U.S. home lender says it had $186.5 billion in liquidity available at the end of June. Of that liquidity, Countrywide says it had access to short-term, 'highly reliable' liquidity of $46.2 billion.

CFC $24.93 -0.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 12:57:27 PM

BEAR STEARNS CO-PRESIDENT QUITS OVER SUBPRIME

DJ- Blaming the recent collapse of two mortgage-backed funds, Bear Stearns confirms departure of Warren J. Spector, Wall Street's highest-profile casualty in the burgeoning subprime lending fiasco.

BSC $106.60 -1.61% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 12:56:36 PM

AMERICAN HOME MORTGAGE FILES FOR BANKRUPTCY

DJ- American Home Mortgage becomes the latest lender to succumb to the subprime turmoil, filing for bankruptcy days after laying off all but 10% of its work force and saying it would no longer take loan applications. The nation's 10th-largest mortgage lender last year made its Chapter 11 filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Wilmington, Del. American Home says the move came after lenders hit it with margin calls it couldn't meet.

Keene Little : 8/6/2007 12:54:26 PM

We've got a nice rally going. The premarket highs didn't stop the rally and it would appear now that it could build some strength. The shorts are covering. If the bounce is going to be a larger 3-wave correction then the next levels of potential resistance will be two equal legs up at SPX 1455.83 and DOW 13362. Take profits early if you're trading on the long side.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 12:39:57 PM

RUT.X 60-minute interval chart with MONTHLY and conventional "nested" retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 12:18:47 PM

Next up is RUT.X, which did see trade at MONTHLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 12:18:30 PM

BIX.X 351.58 +3.26% ... 60-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Keene Little : 8/6/2007 12:14:47 PM

We've got a little 3-wave bounce (relatively speaking it's little) which leaves it as just a correction so far. Another minor high from here could turn it into a small impulsive bounce in which case it will be telling us to look to get long after the next pullback. Otherwise we could see a pullback directly from here. A rally up to the premarket highs in the futures (ES 1454.50, YM 13350) could set up a short play if it looks like it will be resistance there.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 11:55:33 AM

YM 13,310 ... didn't quite get a trade at its WEEKLY Pivot (13,333). Regular session high has been 13,330.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 11:53:36 AM

DIA $132.72 +0.40% ... after kiss of its WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 11:52:25 AM

SPY $144.48 +0.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 11:52:01 AM

BIX.X alert! 350.02 +2.80% ... WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 11:22:28 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Friday's Internals at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 11:19:54 AM

NAZ composite has broken its August 1st lows. Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 11:18:21 AM

OK I need to add the NDX to the markets that have not broken their August 1st lows. Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 11:16:48 AM

The Wilshire 5000 has broken its August 1st lows. Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 11:15:41 AM

MID Caps have broken Friday lows and the August 1st lows. So far the DOW and S&P have not yet broken its August 1st lows. Link

Keene Little : 8/6/2007 11:10:18 AM

SPX continues to walk down along the trend line along recent lows and continues to give me the impression it will not head much further south. But the fact that MACD has broken its uptrend is a little worrisome. If it's a small descending wedge that's forming then the bullish divergences should continue. So stay cautious about the upside even though I don't think there's a lot of downside potential here. Hence the recommendation for being flat right now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 11:09:18 AM

VIX.X 26.37 +4.80% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 11:08:10 AM

Swing trade covered put stop alert! ... for the SFB-TP at the offer of $4.00.

SPY $142.90

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 11:02:27 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 10:59:03 AM

Swing trade covered put establish stop alert ... place a stop on the S&P Depository Receipt SPY Aug $146 Put (SFB-TP) at $142.90 in the underlying.

This is the "covered put."

SPY $143.25.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 10:54:49 AM

SPY 60-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 10:40:13 AM

I wanted to give you another glimpse at the S&P's monthly jtHMA chart. I suspect this chart will turn red (a month has to close red) before we make the required 20% drop to 1244 telling us the S&P has transitioned into a bear market. Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 10:29:58 AM

It looks like the DOW's blue upward trendline is back but is now resistance and not support anymore. Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 10:25:29 AM

My goodness, the Russell 2000 has found support back at its November 2nd lows. That is 9 months of gains lost in less than 1 month of losses. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 10:25:20 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 10:22:21 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil and other energy futures fell sharply Monday, extending their steep losses from last week, as energy traders worried that a slowdown in the U.S. economy will lower demand for oil.

Crude for September delivery declined $2.04, or 2.7%, at $73.44 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Other energy contracts also declined sharply.

"The global demand outlook is being given additional scrutiny this morning as the market remained under pressure following the disappointing jobs number and the concomitant stock market sell-off Friday," said Michael Fitzpatrick, analyst at MF Global, in a research report.

"Posting a new high for the current move last week, without accompanying follow through, set up technical conditions for a correction, as well," he said. "Fears of energy demand destruction were also fanned by Friday's sell-off in the stock market tied to concerns over tightening credit market conditions."

On Friday, crude futures finished with a loss of 1.8%, or $1.38, for the session, at $75.48 a barrel. The contract had climbed to an intraday high of $78.70 on Wednesday, the highest level a benchmark contract on the Nymex has ever seen. The benchmark contract marked a record closing high of $78.21 on Tuesday.

Keene Little : 8/6/2007 10:18:46 AM

It's still early but so far it's looking like we're consolidating and that keeps us on the dark red wave count as shown on the SPX chart I posted last night. As a small 4th wave correction in the leg down from Thursday's high it will probably be a little choppy as it works its way a little higher before giving us a final low perhaps tomorrow. These kinds of corrections are "feed your broker" days so the sidelines is a good place to be for now.

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 10:16:00 AM

AD volume is making new daily lows but it is not supported by the VIX making new daily highs so that means the bulls are starting to put up a fight and the hot knife through butter type of moves are probably over for now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/6/2007 10:04:51 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 10:04:03 AM

S&P sort of held on to its PDLs as well. Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 10:00:36 AM

DOW did indeed hold on to its PDLs. Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 9:54:51 AM

ES and YM have not yet broken their PDLs. Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 9:49:40 AM

However, VIX is making new daily highs and AD volume new daily lows and that is always bearish.

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 9:48:46 AM

AD line is a bearish at -812 but certainly not as bearish as we have seen.

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 9:47:29 AM

Well that was quick = Russell 2000 breaks its PDL. Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 9:44:30 AM

Further announcements from IB. Please note that many of the statutory margin requirements for many US index futures and options imply a very small intraday margin requirement (in the case of ES, less than 2%). In light of the recent volatility in the markets, we feel it is prudent to apply margins that are consistent with this volatility.

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 9:41:32 AM

This daily chart of the Russell show how it mostly sliced through its support at 760 but I think that was just a little bit of everyone running for the exit and it got a little overdone. I suspect Friday's lows will hold and that will see a retracement today. Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 9:29:34 AM

Annoucement from Interactive Brokers. Effective Monday 6 August, 2007, and until further notice, there will be a significant change in the intraday margins for most stock and index futures and futures options. Specifically, the intraday margin will be set to cover a price move of 4% in the instrument, but will not exceed the regular maintenance margin. By example, a 4% move in the ES futures would require intraday margin of 4% * 1450 price * 50 multiplier = 2900 USD. The regular intraday margin is 1400 USD and the regular overnight maintenance margin is 2800 USD so for ES the intraday margin would be the same as the overnight. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE ONLY MARGINS AFFECTED BY THIS POLICY CHANGE ARE INTRADAY (REDUCED) MARGINS ON EQUITY-LINKED FUTURES AND FUTURES OPTIONS.

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 9:27:06 AM

Crude breaks its PDL and has fallen $4.00/bl off its all time highs made on August 1st at 78.77.

The DAX broke its PDL overnight and has only retraced 23.60% of its PDR.

US$ broke it PDL and seems to be finding resistance at its PDL. This is bullish for Gold. Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 9:15:32 AM

All markets made higher highs overnight and have retraced approximately 38.20% of Friday's range. Notice ER is the only market to not quite reach its 38.20% level. Link

Jane Fox : 8/6/2007 9:09:03 AM

Dateline WSJ - SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Bear Stearns Cos. co-president and co-chief operating officer Warren Spector resigned Sunday at a meeting of the firm's board of directors, the company said. "I am leaving with nothing but the highest respect and regard for Bear Stearns and all the talented professionals with whom I have been privileged to work," Spector said in a press release.

The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday that the company appeared ready to oust Spector, its high-flying chief of stock and bond trading, considered a leading candidate for the top job at the bank, as it uncoils from the staggering downturn in the credit markets.

Keene Little : 8/6/2007 8:42:43 AM

Equity futures had a nice overnight gain but have given up some of their gains since 7:00 AM. ES climbed almost 22 points off last night's low which is a large move during the day. To have it happen overnight is a very large move. At this time it has given up 7 points from its high but obviously well off its low.

YM is not quite as bullish and didn't get the same kind of overnight rally. The DOW wasn't sold off as hard as SPX last week so it's not surprising to see ES jumping out ahead of YM this morning. It could be a whippy morning (day) so trade it and don't be afraid to take profits early.

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