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Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2007 12:45:23 AM

Bonds Hits #756

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2007 12:42:13 AM

Sector Bulish % Status Change ... WALLStreet reverses up to "bull alert" status at 34.15%. Link

Keene Little : 8/7/2007 10:59:20 PM

e-mini futures contracts you'll see traded on the Monitor and the current front month:
DOW 30 (YM), September
S&P 500 (ES), September
Nasdaq 100 (NQ), September
Russell 2000 (ER--may be different on your charts), September
10-year Note (ZN), September
30-year Bond (ZB), September
Gold (YG), December
Silver (YI), September
Oil (QM), September

Keene Little : 8/7/2007 10:58:03 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

We're potentially at the end of the correction or more likely, in my opinion, in the middle of a corrective bounce. That means price can whipsaw around and not have a lot of meaning. I want to short the rallies but the challenge will be where the rallies end. Just some idea on these updated charts (60-min except the daily for the RUT):
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

OI Technical Staff : 8/7/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 5:57:59 PM

SPY $147.77 +1.06% ... Daily Interval chart with nested retracement at this Link ... per today's MM (bottom at 01:46:58). Correction to "Only explanation."

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 5:33:13 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $29.69 +0.19% ... called higher at $31.40 on earnings.

Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for EPS of $0.35 on Revenue of $9.29B

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 5:10:43 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 4:57:46 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 4:35:48 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/7/2007 4:13:36 PM

All that price action post-FOMC and the DOW settled right where it was before the announcement. How many stops do you suppose were hit in between? It looks to me like it's headed lower tomorrow, probably right out of the gate.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 4:03:59 PM


DJ- UBS, whose home finance unit was one of the lenders to bankruptcy bound American Home Mortgage, is telling mortgage brokers that it will no longer buy loans lacking documentation about borrowers' ability to repay.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 4:03:14 PM


DJ- Corporate defaults will more than double in coming year as widely available, cheap credit dries up, Moody's says. Ratings agency says global speculative-grade corporate default rate should rise to about 3.5% from a current level of 1.5%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 3:57:20 PM

DJ- US June Consumer Credit Increased $13.1 Billion

May revised to Up $16.0B From Up $12.9B

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 3:55:34 PM

DJ- Bear Stearns $2.25B 5-year MTNs Priced At Tsys +2.45

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 3:39:09 PM

I did not take a SPX position because the weekly jtHMA is red but I will use these charts to take a longer term position once the weekly turns back green. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 3:37:52 PM

VXO.X 19.86 -7.67% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 3:37:33 PM

VIX.X 20.87 -9.02% ...

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 3:37:33 PM

I am long the QQQQ calls from 48.15 and will hold on this position until I see the 120 minute jtHMA turn red. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 3:34:06 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in DIA-like security.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 3:33:28 PM

No stop for now, target is $145.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 3:32:59 PM

Swing trade bullish call alert! ... for one (1) of the Dow Diamonds DIA Dec $144 Calls (DAZ-LN) at the offer of $2.45 ($2.30 x $2.45).

DIA $135.15.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 3:19:47 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/7/2007 3:19:21 PM

I misspoke before. I said we should get +/- 10-pt SPX moves around the FOMC announcement. It's actually been 20-pt moves. The volatility is certainly here! Now we wait for a final direction. As this updated SPX 60-min chart shows, we could tip back over and immediately head for new lows (light red), rally straight from here for new highs (green), or something in between--a drop back down before setting up another rally leg (dark red). I'm still leaning towards the dark red wave count scenario. Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 3:14:57 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- An increase in credit-card debt pushed outstanding U.S. consumer debt up at a 6.5% annual rate, or $13.2 billion, to $2.46 trillion in June, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday.

It was the second consecutive month that a rise in credit-card debt was mostly behind the overall increase in consumer debt. In June, credit-card and other forms of revolving debt rose at an 8.4% annual rate, or by $6.3 billion. May's gain was revised upward, to 12.2%.

Meanwhile, auto, student, personal and other non-revolving debts rose at an annual rate of 5.3% in June after climbing by 5.4% in May.

Total consumer credit increased by a revised 7.9% annualized in May, or by $16 billion.

The Fed data do not include mortgages or other loans backed by real estate.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 3:10:14 PM

60 minute chart of the SPX shows it has broken resistance as well but not the daily resistance at 1490. THe bulls really need a close above 1490. Link

Keene Little : 8/7/2007 3:08:45 PM

Nice short covering rally off that post-FOMC spike down. Amazing what a few buy programs can get started. Maybe the Fed is helping the market a little after all (that's pure speculation). The DOW is now just shy of a 50% retracement at 13572. SPX has now bounced back up to its broken uptrend line from yesterday (with a new high) so stay cautious about this bounce.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 3:08:35 PM

The DOW breaks its resistance at 13500 but it has to retain the break and close above 13500. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 3:03:54 PM

Dow Industrials (INDU) alert! 13,550 Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 3:03:19 PM

S&P 500 (SPX.X) alert! 1,480 Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 3:02:33 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 2:58:28 PM

OK ... thank you.

Keene Little : 8/7/2007 2:55:26 PM

Jeff, I think the market was looking for soothing words from Bernanke that he is ready and willing to support the market as needed. He wouldn't use those words of course but would use Fedspeak to indicate that they're willing to infuse the capital markets with the cash needed to help the credit situation. The market wants to hear that the Fed is ready to hold the market up with a continuation of the Greenspan put so that investors don't have to worry about risk. Not worrying about risk is EXACTLY why the market is in so much danger today of a significant decline.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 2:46:03 PM

Keene ... what was "it" that YOU think the market wanted?

August Fed fund futures 94.78 ....

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 2:40:50 PM

XLF $44.50 -0.59% ... jumps to #2 most active.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 2:26:07 PM

02:22 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/7/2007 2:20:49 PM

As I suspected, the Fed did not give the market what it wanted. Bernanke & Co. have been making it clear that they're not going to be like Greenspan who knee-jerked with every market twitch. Bernanke is focused on the longer term view (to which I say hooray!) and has vowed to let the market find its own bottom. In other words he's removing the Greenspan put and confirmed that in their language today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 2:19:52 PM

FOMC June 28, 2007 Statement Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 2:19:18 PM

FOMC August 7, 2007 Statement Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 2:14:54 PM

Alert! ... FOMC Keeps Rates Unchanged.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 2:13:29 PM

FOMC decision imminent ...

Keene Little : 8/7/2007 1:55:53 PM

Prices are sneaking higher, hoping no one will notice. I still like the setup for a short play post-FOMC but you know the risks. With the emotions running high at the moment it could swing 10 SPX points both ways in a hurry.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 1:49:14 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $191.75 +2.10% ... today's trade at $194 does get the stock's PnF chart back on a "buy signal." Did pierce bullish support trend at $178 yesterday with trade at $176. Young bearish resistance then at $212.

WALLstreet bullish % still "bear confirmed" at longer-term oversold 22%. 32% needed for "bull alert."

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 1:35:31 PM

Consolidating at daily highs, VIX to new daily lows and AD Volume to new daily highs is a sure fire formula for higher highs. BBUUUUTTTT we are on a FED watch so all those trading axioms are of no value.

However, the one axiom that is of value is don't trade just before a FED announcment.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 1:31:37 PM

eBay (EBAY) $35.37 +2.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 1:31:13 PM

Oh my ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 1:25:59 PM

XLF $34.15 +1.33% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 1:24:38 PM

Market participants made a major withdrawal on test of MONTHLY Pivot (392.22) in July.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 1:22:19 PM

BIX.X 368.56 +1.84% Alert! ... Has seen trade at MONTHLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 1:17:01 PM

All markets have broken their PDHs except NDX. It is also NQ that has not yet broken its overnight highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 1:03:30 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 1:02:29 PM

NQ has not been able to break its overnight highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:49:01 PM

SPX Options Chain ... CBOE Volume only at this Link ... A little different "look" than SPY.

As I've tried to teach traders, ALWAYS try and at least look at both the index and "tracker" option chains.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:39:12 PM

SPY Options Chain ... CBOE volume only at this Link ... There's "no way" the SPY is going $157 + $0.55 = $157.55 by September expiration.

Is there?

Keene Little : 8/7/2007 12:36:31 PM

SPX is in the same pattern as the DOW for the rally from yesterday's low--it too looks to be in its 5th wave up and therefore close to finishing this leg up. Whether that will finish the correction to the decline or will only be the 1st leg up of a larger A-B-C correction (as shown in dark red on its 60-min chart last night: Link ) is not clear yet, but regardless, a pullback should be the next move after the current rally finishes: Link

The upside Fib projections are 1477.15 (wave-5 = 62% of wave-1) and 1486.06 (wave-5 = wave-1). A break back below 1460 would be the signal that we've seen the high and then I'll be trying to figure out if it's going to be just a pullback or is the start of something more serious to the downside.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:32:06 PM

Good gravy!

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:29:39 PM

SPY's CBOE most active according to my QCharts ... SPY Sep $142 Put 10,673 and Sep $157 Call 6,023 with SPY Aug $146 Call 5,862.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 12:27:59 PM

DAteline WSJ - Ellyn McColgan, Fidelity Investments' president of distributions and operations, is to leave her post. The recently promoted executive was seen as a possible successor to Fidelity Chairman Ned Johnson.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:27:25 PM

VIX suggests more put sellers/call buyers than put buyers/call sellers among the broader S&P 500 components.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:26:36 PM

VXO suggests more put buyers/call sellers than put sellers/call buyers among the S&P 100 components.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:25:59 PM

Hmmmm ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:25:37 PM

VXO.X 22.29 +3.62% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:25:17 PM

VIX.X 22.39 -2.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:24:59 PM

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $61.91 +0.62% ... up 10 cents from 7/24/07 bullish profile.

JNJ-JL $3.10 x $3.30.

Keene Little : 8/7/2007 12:24:08 PM

Today's small bounce in bond prices looks like a bear flag. If bonds sell off post-FOMC, driving rates higher, that also suggests the Fed isn't going to say anything that's market friendly and that would likely cause stocks to sell off as well. It's always dicey trading around FOMC announcements and I certainly wouldn't do it with futures but based on what I'm seeing today I could be enticed to buy a few equity index puts--front month, no stop, lottery play.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:20:56 PM

EIA - Winter Heating Oil Seen +37C At $2.85 Vs. Year Ago

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:20:26 PM

EIA - 4Q Retail Heating Oil Seen +14C/Gal At $2.68 Vs. July Report

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:19:34 PM

EIA - Lowers OPEC 3Q Output Estimate By 300,000 To 30.5M B/D

Keene Little : 8/7/2007 12:19:29 PM

A 50% retracement of the DOW's decline is at 13572, very close to the upside Fib projection for the current move so there's some correlation there to suggest caution if you're long and a reason to try shorting it there (assuming it gets there).

Another reason to think about the short side is because of the potential wave count for the bounce off last Wednesday's low. As I showed on its 60-min chart last night (below), the rally from yesterday could be wave-C of the A-B-C correction and once it's finished we could see a hard selloff follow and head for new lows at a rapid pace (in a 3rd wave down).

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:18:39 PM

EIA - 3Q WTI Crude Prices Seen +$4.54/bbl At $74.71 Vs. July Report

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:17:44 PM

Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $84.56 +1.25% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:17:15 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $136.46 -0.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:16:54 PM

CNOOC (CEO) $112.61 +0.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:16:32 PM

EIA - China Oil Demand Seen +8.3% On Yr In 3Q, +8% in 4Q

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 12:16:20 PM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Michael Weiss, editor of the Mutual Fund Investor newsletter, says investors should consider scaling back or getting out of microcap funds and emerging markets funds, noting that both areas have had extraordinary performance runs, but that the immediate future is likely to hold a big decline and severe volatility.

In a radio interview with Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch senior columnist, Weiss noted that "the smallest of the small-cap stocks are risky right now, and there are better places to deploy your money," specifically with large-cap companies and in developed international economies.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:15:54 PM

I'll check December futures PnF chart in a moment.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:15:30 PM

EIA - Avg US Retail Gasoline Prices Seen At $2.64/Gallon in December

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:14:33 PM

EIA - OPEC "Unwillingness" to Use Surplus Capacity Reduces Price Impact

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:13:36 PM

EIA - World 3Q Oil Use Growth Outlook Cut to +1.8% from +2.0%

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 12:13:05 PM

These internals are bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:12:31 PM

EIA - Cuts Summer Retail Gasoline Price Forecast 7C to $2.95

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 12:11:54 PM

AD line is now above 0 but certainly not bullish yet. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:11:54 PM

EIA - US 4Q Oil Use Outlook Hiked to +1.5% On Yr, From +1.3%

Keene Little : 8/7/2007 12:11:13 PM

I'm back. It's looking like an attempt to rally from this morning's consolidation. Bulls typically don't do well with a rally into FOMC. Considering the fact that another leg up looks like it will complete a 5th wave for the move up from yesterday's low, it calls for a pullback after it completes. The DOW's pattern has an upside target at 13576 where the 5th wave becomes equal to the 1st wave up. This pattern suggests we'll see a selloff post-FOMC: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:11:08 PM

EIA - Nigeria Oil Volumes Rise 130,000 B/D To 2.15M B/D In July

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:10:26 PM

EIA - OPEC-10 July Oil Output 26.67M B/D, Up 290,000 Vs. June

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:09:43 PM

EIA - US 3Q Oil Use Forecast Cut to 21.01M B/D, +1% On Year

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:08:46 PM

EIA - US Retail Gasoline Prices Seen Falling Through Year End

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 12:07:49 PM

August-December Fed Fund futures Link

August forecasting no change (100 - 94.78)= 5.22%

September 18 is next meeting (100 - 94.82) = 5.18%

Then a two day meeting Oct 30/31 (100 - 94.87) = 5.13%

Then final meeting for 2007 on Dec. 11 (100 - 95.05) = 4.95%.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 12:04:53 PM

Now take a look at the NDX double bottom and how the MACD reacted to that double bottom. It made a higher low. This tells me the swing high at 1970 should break but once again the FED with throw all the technical analysis out the window for at least the rest of the day. SIGH!

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 12:02:36 PM

NDX 60 minute chart shows it has not yet broken resistance. of course once the FED makes its announcement we probably see that resistance break but I will be looking to see if it falls back into the downward channel. Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 11:58:27 AM

Here is the DOW's 60 minute chart. It shows the resistance at 13500 quite clearly. Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 11:49:35 AM

Here is a S&P 60 minute chart. Hitting resistance and as I type I see it is breaking thru the upper trendline. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 11:49:02 AM

YM 13,499 ... sticks its head back above WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 11:40:30 AM

Dow Industrials (INDU) ... Daily interval bar chart with "nested retracement" Link

So far this month, INDU has NOT been able to hold a CLOSE above MONTHLY Pivot.

PnF chart Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 11:24:47 AM

The 120/60 jtHMA charts need to turn back green and we get a buy on Crude. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 11:16:01 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Monday's Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 11:04:06 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 8/7/2007 11:05:09 AM

Profunds: SELL- Ultra Small Cap UCPIX & UltraShort OTC USPIX Roll out of these 2 funds and BUY these 4 funds.

Profunds UltraBull 500 (ULPIX); Ultra OTC (UOPIX); Ultra SmallCap (UAPIX); Ultra MidCap (UMPIX)

Charts are signaling BUY. Aggressive buyers can go 100%....those more conservative can enter 50% and buy more on any dips; average in.

I believe the fear has subsided concerning the credit markets and it is time to get long. Keep in mind that this trade is for several weeks/months (intermediate to long term).

CHARTS: Link Link

*See past post on 7/26/07 11:51 AM. UCPIX average cost basis $14.25, close yesterday $14.26; USPIX average cost basis $13.58, closed $11.36. As of yesterday the UOPIX/USPIX trades worth $5100 (+$100) and the UAPIX/UCPIX trades $5400 (+$400). Take the roughly $10500 & divided into the 4 new fund trades.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 11:01:33 AM

Chicago Merc (CME) $579.46 +0.91% Link ... just gave a reversing higher PnF buy signal at $576. At very young trend.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 10:59:49 AM

WFMI @ $42 Link ... does pay a dividend. Stock did trade $52 in February.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 10:57:31 AM

STAN @ $39 Link ... "bear trap" at $32.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 10:51:24 AM

QSII @ $43 Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 10:49:44 AM

KTII @102 Link ... thin

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 10:46:38 AM

FRT @ $78 was a reversing higher PnF buy signal. Stock below trend ($82) so not that interested.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 10:45:29 AM

CVH @ $63 was a "bad tick"

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 10:44:24 AM

COO @ $56 was a "bad tick" (NYSE buy signal)

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 10:38:47 AM

Yesterday's Bullish % Action at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 10:36:21 AM

The PDHs are resistance today. WE need to see an improvement in the internals before markets will be able so sustain a break of resistance.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 10:27:09 AM

A break of highs will not have any follow through as long as the AD line is -553.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 10:26:36 AM

ES and ER have broken their respective overnight highs but certainly not by much and they are both back into their ON ranges. Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 10:22:43 AM

No market has broken its PDH - yet. As long as the AD line remains as bearish as it is even if those PDHs break I don't expect much follow through. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 10:19:36 AM

Freddie Mac (FRE) $62.89 +4.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 10:19:02 AM

Fannie Mae (FNM) $65.65 +5.04% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 10:16:02 AM

NASDAQ a/d 1,345/1,336

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 10:15:43 AM

NYSE a/d 1,214/1,789

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 10:15:04 AM

Mexico's July Auto Production Up 25.6% To 148,931 Units ... July Auto Exports Up 51.2% To 129,581 Units ... July Auto Sales Little Changed At 83,102 Units.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 10:13:07 AM


DJ- A S&P managing director says the stock market overreacted after Standard & Poor's lowered its long-term outlook on Bear Stearns' credit ratings to negative Aug. 3.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 10:12:07 AM


DJ- Countrywide Financial says it will acquire part of HomeBanc's retail-mortgage operations, including five branches, and that it will hire a significant number of the company's retail-loan originators. Terms are not disclosed.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 10:09:20 AM


DJ- Turmoil in the home-mortgage market is now pinching buyers of high-end homes with good credit, as rates on jumbo loans surge, which is particularly notable because they usually rise in tandem with T-notes, which have been falling. Meanwhile, Aegis notifies mortgage brokers that it is unable to provide funds for loans already in the pipeline, and Luminent says its is facing calls for repayments from creditors and is suspending its dividend.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 10:07:08 AM

However, these are bullish but please keep in mind the AD line. Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 10:05:51 AM

AD line is a bearish -702 up from a low of -1532. THis is not bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2007 10:03:02 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 9:59:35 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures fell sharply once again Tuesday, weighed down by a weak opening on the U.S. stock market as well as ongoing concern that a slowdown in the U.S. economy will lower energy demand.

Crude oil for September delivery dropped 70 cents, or 1%, at $71.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

There is "some more follow through selling," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Alaron Trading. "When the stock market got weak, it added to the selling. The concern is about a slowing economy. A lot of eyes will turn to the Federal Reserve today. There is a lot of anxiety." Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 9:55:44 AM

This chart is hard to decipher but based on the chart of the US$ I would not be long Gold now. Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 9:54:03 AM

MACD is suggesting the double bottom on this chart of the US$ is bullish and this market has found its bottom.

This, of course, is not good for Goldbugs. That chart next. Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 9:50:04 AM

The DOW has not been able to break its 13500 resistance which just happens to be the 50EMA as well. Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 9:47:45 AM

Time to buy the QQQQ calls back but I will be putting an order in when the Qs hit 48.15. Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 9:24:58 AM

The DOW has been gyrating between 13500 and 13100 for 7 days now and although this could go on longer I suspect we will see a break today. I think the DOW will break 13500 before it breaks 13100 but once it does it will need some follow through ie it needs to stay above 13500 and not fall back into the 13500-13100 range to prove to me the bulls have taken back the reins. Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 9:15:38 AM

DAteline Marketwatch - Investors suspect that recent problems in the credit markets will force the Fed to note in its policy statement that it is becoming more concerned about an economic slowdown. For many months the Fed's top worry has been inflation.

Such a change in stance could pave the way for a rate cut in coming months.

Sentiment is likely to be cautious before the statement comes out. "Anything is possible before the Fed because we won't know anything until we see the statement," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak. "

"We need to see the statement to see whether they are more focused on inflation or whether they acknowledge the weakness in the economy and the potential impact of credit problems on the economy," Boockvar said.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 9:13:24 AM

Crude hit $71.50/bl overnight and you have to wonder if it will revisit its support at $67.00 before it finds support again.

US$ breaks its PDH as Gold breaks its PDL.

Equity bulls do not like the fact that the DAX has made a series of lower lows and highs overnight. This is not bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 9:08:41 AM

The calm overnight sessions of late are a 180 from the volatile intraday sessions but the sideways consolidation the markets are making at PDHs suggest we will see higher highs. Unfortunately though it seems the volatility has thrown all the old axioms we use in trading, axioms like consolidation at highs suggest higher highs, out the window. Link

Keene Little : 8/7/2007 9:04:19 AM

The combination of higher labor costs and lower productivity is not a healthy sign for the economy and the equity futures sold off some on the news. My best guess as to what the pattern will look like today is a consolidation this morning followed by another rally leg (not as much as yesterday) that should set up a larger pullback at a minimum. Whether the little rally happens before the FOMC announcement or just after is the unknown (or if we even get the rally).

But consolidating after yesterday's big run up would be typical, especially in front of the FOMC, so waiting for a setup would probably make more sense than trying to trade the potential chop. I've got to run off to a meeting that should take a few hours but will be back by lunch. See you then.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2007 9:01:12 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- U.S. productivity accelerated last quarter but came short of expectations given the sharp rebound in economic output.

The government also revised down its estimates for productivity growth going back to 2004, further evidence that the underlying trend has weakened dramatically compared to four or five years ago.

That's bad news for Federal Reserve policymakers at a time when they must increasingly juggle risks to both economic growth and inflation. Productivity is a key building block of noninflationary growth and rising wages.

Nonfarm business productivity rose at a 1.8% annualized rate between April and June, the Labor Department said Tuesday, up from the first quarter's rate of 0.7%, which was revised down from 1%.

Last quarter's productivity gain was below Wall Street expectations of a 2% increase.

Unit labor costs -- a gauge of inflationary pressures -- rose 2.1% last quarter, following a 3% rise the previous quarter, which was revised up from 1.8%. They were up 4.5% from a year ago, the fastest rise since the third quarter of 2000.

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