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Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2007 1:41:29 AM

YM Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2007 1:12:04 AM

NYSE NH/NL Ratio Chart Link

"f"ive day. X's and O's are the 10-day NH/NL ratio.

Due to horizontal limitations, I did remove some of the older "f"ive day measures on the chart.

For the 10-day NH/NL ratio to reverse up into a column of X, we must currently see a 3-box reversal to 16%.

IMPOSSIBLE at this point to do that if 5-day NH/NL is at 14%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2007 12:44:46 AM

NYSE, NASDAQ, SPX and RUT NH/NL measures since 7/02/07 Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2007 12:24:34 AM

Not much "wiggle room" for the BOJ with rates at 0.50%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2007 12:23:47 AM

Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) Link ... up 17 points, or +0.10% at 16,817.

High/Low so far has been 16,836 / 16,748.

Unless $NIKK can trade 16,950, O's will get the square(s) to 16,750.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2007 12:20:13 AM

BOJ Drains Extra Y1 Trillion From Money Market

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 11:39:46 PM

BOJ Drains Y600 Billion (update)

DJ- The Bank of Japan drained Y600 billion from the money supply Tuesday morning, after two straight days in which it pumped money into the system to ease fears of a liquidity crisis.

The BOJ had injected Y1 trillion Friday and another Y600 billion Monday as central banks in Europe, the United States and Australia also pumped cash into the system in the face of credit fears sparked by the U.S. subprime-mortgage meltdown.

The bank moved after the overnight call rate stood Tuesday morning at 0.1%, far below the BOJ's target of 0.50%, a sign of excess liquidity in the system, BOJ official Hirotaki Hideshima said.

The intention is to bring the rate back to 0.50%, but it's too soon to gauge the impact, Hideshima said.

"Rates were trading low this morning, so as a natural response we're absorbing funds. Yesterday and today the rates were strong after we provided funds, so this is just a symmetric response," Hideshima said.

On Monday, he said it was "possible" that the rise Friday and Monday in the overnight rate - an indication that banks had grown more cautious about lending - was tied to the subprime crisis abroad.

On Tuesday, however, he said reports that the BOJ injections were part of a concerted global effort to head off a credit crisis had been overblown. The injections and draining as part of the central bank's normal operations each day at 0020 GMT, he said.

One analyst at a foreign investment bank said Tuesday's low rate showed banks no longer believe the BOJ will raise interest rates later this month, and that the pace of future rate hikes will slow as the subprime crisis roils global financial markets.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 11:36:39 PM

Hurricane Flossie (update) ... Drops to Category 3 As It Heads to Hawaii.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 11:34:05 PM

Bank of Japan Drains Y600 Billion From Money Market

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 11:30:59 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/13/2007 10:11:27 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

I think there's the possibility for a pullback on Tuesday that could lead to another rally leg into the latter part of this week (shown in dark red). Link

The crucial level is Friday's low which if violated would turn the pattern very bearish. Until that happens, and based on the wave pattern of the bounce so far, I think we haven't seen the high for the bounce yet. For now I'm projecting the pullback (assuming we'll get one) to 1440 and then a bounce to just under 1476 from there (two equal legs up from Friday and 62% retracement of last week's decline.

The same setup for the DOW shows a pullback to about 13170 and then rally to 13450 before setting up a much more serious decline post opex: Link

Also the same setup for NDX could see a pullback to around 1920 before rallying back up. The Fibs don't line up as well when playing with price and time projections but a reasonable guess puts the upside potentila around 1967 by Thursday. Link

The RUT could easily go either way from here and make big moves without tipping its hand as to which way it will finally decide to go. Trade this one short term until a longer term direction becomes clearer (hopefully from the other indices first). Link

OI Technical Staff : 8/13/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 4:55:17 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 4:51:11 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 4:46:58 PM

EIA: US Retail Gasoline Falls 6.7C To $2.771/Gal In Week

Tab Gilles : 8/13/2007 4:40:15 PM

$NYHILO:$VIX/$SPX & $NAHILO:$VXN/$NDX This is an interesting chart using the 7 week ma on the HILO's. They are giving a buy signal now. Granted this is just one indicator...and should be considered along side others. Link Link

Keene Little : 8/13/2007 4:13:32 PM

Because of the very corrective looking pullback from today's high I'm not feeling that bearish about this. So I'm thinking we're in a b-wave pullback and could get a stronger rally tomorrow to finish an a-b-c rally off of Friday's low. Playing with some Fibs, if SPX drops down to about 1440 tomorrow morning and then rallies back up for two equal legs up off Friday's low, it would take it to 1475 which would also be a 62% retracement of last week's decline: Link

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 4:03:16 PM

Tab, I also agree a 10% correction would be healthy. I have been saying that for a long time. So far the Russell has corrected 14% already, the DOW 7%, S&P 9% and the NAZ 8%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 4:02:50 PM

If today were a Tuesday, RUT/ER trader thinking ... "a little stronger than I'd of liked."

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 4:02:07 PM

RUT.X 779.86 -1.13% ... that's "about right" isn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 4:01:22 PM

YM 13,297 ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 4:00:01 PM

NYSE running 3.436 billion

Tab Gilles : 8/13/2007 4:00:26 PM

Jane, My opinion of Ben Stein's report is that he only focused on subprime and not on the derivatives stemming from it. He views it as a small problem, when it maybe larger, but no one knows how big? The hedge and quant funds trading systems have played a large part in the increased volatility. I agree fear has cuased a run on the bank mentality as these funds need to raise cash ahead of any redemptions. The Fed is playing it with its liquidity injections and holding off on any rate cuts. The economy and earnings are doing great. The consumer is employed and spending (look at today's Retail sales #. So we don't need a rate cut, which would also hurt the dollar. John Chambers of Cisco stated to Reuter's today that the credit crisis will play out over the next 3-6 months and that the global economy will do fine. This bull market is 58 months old and we need a 10% correction which is healthy.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 3:57:07 PM

NYSE running 3.374 billion shares.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 3:56:16 PM

The DOW looks like it has found a support zone around 13100 but with the craziness in the markets lately I am just not sure. Once the swing high made on August 8th breaks then I will say 13100 is support but not until. Link

Keene Little : 8/13/2007 3:55:13 PM

The DOW too is breaking its uptrend line as we head into the close. It has given up more than 110 points from today's high and has broken its uptrend line. If this is the best the market can do after massive amounts of liquidity has been pumped into the banking system over the past few days by world central banks then the market could be in for more trouble.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 3:54:35 PM

That ol' StockTraders Almanac might be accurate today for INDU/SPX/COMPX.

NDX 1,934.08 +0.46% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 3:53:22 PM

Rather "light," considering 3.8 billion at this time in recent weeks.

Keene Little : 8/13/2007 3:53:15 PM

A drop below SPX 1459 is a break of its uptrend line from Friday and sets up a deeper pullback/drop from here so short is probably the place to be right now. The only problem is the overnight carry. Probably better to wait for tomorrow but the risk is a gap down.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 3:52:33 PM

NYSE volume running 3.28 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 3:50:18 PM

European Markets closed Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 3:46:55 PM

Asian Markets closed Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 3:39:27 PM

07/31/07 to 08/10/07 Sector Bell Curve comparison at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 3:39:21 PM

New highs have "stalled" since 11:00 benchmark. New lows build. That's the "tail." But traders and investors that follow the new low indications observe there are FEWER than recent benchmarks of similar PRICE levels.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 3:17:50 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 3:12:47 PM

Good gravy! ... there's it is. We may well be "squared up" within the MONTHLY Pivot retracement. INDU and RUT.X

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 3:06:06 PM

Can really see the "inchworm" in today's NH/NL benchmarks.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 3:03:01 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 2:54:46 PM

If I were short the ER, I would FEAR a move much above 810.

"Fear" is an emotion. Bulls and bears both will get emotional.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 2:52:07 PM

Tab I happen to totally agree with Ben Stein's logic (2:40 post) unfortunately though the market does not always follow logic. Fear is stronger than greed and as long as there is fear (rational or irrational) out there it will overtake the greed and the markets will sell off.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 2:51:46 PM

RUT.X option montage a little different look.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 2:50:06 PM

IWM $78.11 +0.06% ... bulk of action on the call side of things headed into Friday's expiration has $80 Call SELLING and $79 Call BUYING.

Open interest on the CALL side is heaviest at $82 by notable margin.

"Max Pain" looking $80-ish.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 2:46:45 PM

With RUT.X having been the WEAKEST "longer-term", its ability to hold above WEEKLY Pivot has me bullish .... say... 60/40.

Should NARROW/BIG and the INDU make a move above WEEKLY Pivot, then I get 65/35.

Keene Little : 8/13/2007 2:45:59 PM

The choppy pullback from Thursday's high in CME continues to support another new high in that stock. It's daily chart shows the need for a 5th wave up to finish off its rally: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 2:44:36 PM

Pivot traders can sense, better yet, observe the range.

Resistance is INDU weekly Pivot. Support is RUT.X weekly pivot.

Keene Little : 8/13/2007 2:42:56 PM

It's not clear what's playing out from Friday but now I'm getting the impression we could be consolidating in an ascending wedge which needs one more high to finish it. For SPX this could mean a push up to around 1470-1472 (so the same projection for two equal legs up but now in a different pattern) to set up the short play. It may not set up until the end of the day or a quick pop higher tomorrow morning. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 2:41:15 PM

Olin Corp. (OLN) $19.99 +0.15% ... all over the map last few days.

Tab Gilles : 8/13/2007 2:40:12 PM

Lots of talk today about Ben Stein's article in the NY Times yesterday...here's the link. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 2:40:04 PM

INDU 13,301.40 +0.46% ... "the head"

RUT.X 784.57 -0.53% ... "the tail"

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 2:39:03 PM

RUT.X 784.62 -0.52% ...

INDU 13,304.57 +0.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 2:38:23 PM

YM 13,349 ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 2:37:29 PM

Good "destiny trade" setup in the WEEKLY Pivot Matrix.

ONLY the RUT.X to not yet trade its WEEKLY Pivot.

IF the RUT.X does, then MARKET participants can get a better read on institutional computers. Will they buy the entire mess and cram it down the bears' throat?

So far, HUMANS have been more eager buyers, thus RUT.X not able to trade WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 2:32:31 PM

Regular browser version of MM now working.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 2:22:06 PM

Nice little buy program coming in ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 2:19:01 PM

DJ- Sector Winners and Losers (rest) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 2:13:55 PM

DJ- Sector Winners and Losers (partial) Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 2:08:25 PM

DJ- NYSE New 52-week Highs and Lows (partial) at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 2:06:00 PM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Volatile home-builder stocks traded lower Monday following news that Beazer Homes USA Inc. delayed its quarterly report and Hovnanian Enterprises Inc.'s orders fell 24% in the latest quarter.

Beazer (BZH) led the decline, losing more than 10% in afternoon dealings. The company on Friday said it was delaying the release of its 10-Q filing due to an ongoing and previously disclosed investigation into its mortgage-origination business.

The company's former chief accounting officer "may have caused reserves and other accrued liabilities, relating primarily to land development costs and costs to complete houses, to have been recorded in prior accounting periods in excess of amounts that would have been appropriate under generally accepted accounting principles," Beazer said in a filing.

The net effect could have been an inappropriate reduction in operating expenses, the company said.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 2:02:35 PM

Federal Reserve: "Considerable" Tightening Of Subprime Standards Seen

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 2:01:42 PM

Federal Reserve: Significant Share of Banks Say Consumer Loan Demand Down

Keene Little : 8/13/2007 1:51:00 PM

SPX and the DOW are just sliding down towards their uptrend lines from Friday morning so there's nothing bearish about the pullback from today's high, yet. It takes a break below Friday afternoon's low to turn this more immediately bearish. In the meantime it's looking like we'll get another rally out of this.

But if it doesn't rally soon and SPX breaks its uptrend line and drops below 1450 it could usher in some strong selling since the bearish interpretation of the overlapping drop this afternoon calls for strong selling to follow.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 1:48:46 PM

Corrected WEEKLY/MONTHLY Index Pivot Matrix at this Link

TNX.X closed 4.776%, or 47.76 on Friday. I did adjust SMH by a penny.

I punched in the 01:05 PM EDT prices to the DAILY and now all match the Market Watch.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 1:27:45 PM

IWM $77.81 -0.32% ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels are ... $71.23, $74.65, Piv= $77.36, $80.78, $83.49.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 1:23:38 PM

Thinking "inchworm" last week and today.

The "tail" of the inchworm was digging in last week. The "head" was pulling back.

Today, the "head" tried to lead, but the "tail" slips a bit.

WEEKLY Pivot "key" early in the week for the RUT.X.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 1:22:13 PM

RUT.X 781.36 -0.94% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 1:21:50 PM

YM 13,300 alert!

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 1:21:04 PM

Excellent comments on CNBC ... "I think it depends on how you describe a bear market."

Bullish % are QUANTITATIVE.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 1:19:32 PM

I believe, based on observation, that I typed the TNX.X close incorrectly in for the WEEKLY Pivot matrix.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 1:16:05 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 1:07:18 PM

01:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 1:01:02 PM

Will have to CHANGE TNX.X close for WEEKLY Pivot calculations to reflect a 4.776% Yield close.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 12:59:06 PM

Hmmm ... 47.82 - 0.06 = 47.76 close on Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 12:57:36 PM

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) up just 0.6 bp now at 4.782%. Juuuuuust under its WEEKLY Pivot.

Another "good read?"

Keene Little : 8/13/2007 12:55:20 PM

The caution at this point, as I watch price continue to consolidate today, is that the high around 11:30 AM could count as the completion of the 3-wave bounce off Friday's low. So while it looks like price is still consolidating it may in fact have already started the next leg down, in a somewhat stealthy manner. I'm watching for evidence of that with a small impulsive move down followed by a corrective bounce so nothing yet to tell me the bounce is finished. But be aware of the possibility.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 12:53:18 PM

Internals have been mostly bullish all day but the bulls have not been able to get a foothold because of the weakness in the Russell. Usually all the markets trade in tandem and it is not very often you see this kind of divergence.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 12:51:51 PM

YM 13,335 ... can it pull RUT.X/ER out of intra-day slump?

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 12:51:07 PM

The Russell continues to make new daily lows and the other markets are trying to hold on and not follow the Russell downward. So far they are doing OK.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 12:48:45 PM

DIA shows 533,300 this morning from 08:20-8:25 AM EDT. Match it with futures regular session open of 08:20 AM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 12:46:28 PM

Those calculating their own YM pivots, I'd continue to use CBOT's official regular session high/low/close.

DIA can trade some decent blocks at electronic open.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 12:43:11 PM

RUT.X/ER gave YM traders a "good read" ...

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 12:40:53 PM

BTW for the Dow futures that trades on the ECBOT and starts its session at 8:20 I have changed the intraday session to start at 9:30 like the Globex markets do.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 12:38:45 PM

I am going back to the futures on my PDR charts to get a true daily high and low. That first bar in the cash index throws off those very important levels too much.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 12:38:03 PM

Always nice to start the week as we ended it. YM's post-profile low has been 13,317.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 12:37:23 PM

Look at how much weaker the Russell 2000 is compared to its large cap brethren. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 12:37:22 PM

YM short stopped alert 13,329

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 12:36:20 PM

YM 13,318 ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 12:36:10 PM

YM short lower stop alert ... to 13,329.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 12:35:05 PM

The weakness in the Russell 2000 is weighing the other markets down. The Russell is really weak today. Flight to safety?

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 12:34:26 PM

RUT.X 784.88 -0.49% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 12:34:02 PM

YM short lower stop ... to break even.

YM 13,326.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 12:31:04 PM

YM 13,334 ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 12:30:31 PM

RUT.X 785.60 -0.40% ... probes its DAILY Pivot. This could be "key" intra-day for all indeces. Can the "weakest" hold, or does it need to go WEEKLY Pivot first.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 12:19:20 PM

December DIA call traders. Don't take a YM short the "wrong way." Just trying to scalp.

Friday's action did see the BPSPX reverse back lower to "bear confirmed," so trying a short against WEEKLY Pivot.

RUT.X 787.69 -0.13% ... may provide a drag.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 12:16:59 PM

YM short alert ... here at 13,352. Tight stop at 13,377. Target 13,300

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 12:05:56 PM

VIX continues to make new daily lows and AD volume new daily highs. TRIN at 0.63.

Keene Little : 8/13/2007 12:01:14 PM

The market is still trying to rally but struggling. Still watching and waiting for my setup to get short. The reason I don't want to get long here is because I don't see enough upside potential vs. the risk (with the requirement for wider stops in this more volatile market).

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 11:56:13 AM

YM 10-minute interval chart with MONTHLY/WEEKLY/DAILY Pivot retracement (Derived: Regular Session High/Low/CBOT Close) Link

Last week's action saw direct hits on WEEKLY R2, then WEEKLY S1.

Currently battles WEEKLY Piv/Daily R1 correlation as noted Sunday evening.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 11:35:33 AM

All large caps are now making new daily highs. The RUT on the other hand is barely off its daily lows.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 11:34:53 AM

SPX to new daily highs. Ya gotta just love that VIX !!!

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 11:33:25 AM

Here is a quick update of the internals and it is certainly not a time to be short, however make sure you pick the correct market to get long. The Russell futures is probably not the market to be long. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 11:32:09 AM

BCM- Energy Futures Rise as Tropical Depression FOUR Tracks Towards Gulf of Mexico

TD FOUR 5-day Cone Link

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 11:30:06 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Problems in the nation's mortgage and housing markets are feeding off each other and creating a "vicious cycle," analysts at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. said Monday.

"The rapidly increasing scope and depth of the problems in the mortgage market suggest that the entire sector has plunged into a downward spiral similar to the subprime woes whereby each negative development feeds further deterioration," wrote analysts Chris Brendler and Michael Widner in a research note.

'With the coming wave of adjustable-rate mortgage resets, foreclosures, and actual MBS defaults, we continue to believe we are far from the bottom.'

In the view of Brendler and Widner, the U.S. economy may end up in recession.

Secondary mortgage markets where large investors trade debt are "practically frozen," which has led to "dramatic additional tightening of underwriting standards that will likely serve to only exacerbate the imbalance in the housing market," according to Stifel Nicolaus.

The analysts said rates on home loans should rise as lenders try to compensate investors of mortgage-backed securities with more yield to make up for the added risk they entail. The mortgage-backed securities market has been crushed with foreclosures on the rise, and hedge funds and investment banks that bought the debt have been feeling the pain in turn.

Underscoring the shaky conditions in housing, Stifel Nicolaus said its earlier forecast calling for home-price deprecation between 10% and 15% may prove optimistic.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 11:27:42 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 11:27:02 AM

Hurricane Flossie Moves Toward Hasaii, But Expected To Weaken ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 11:23:57 AM

Ned Davis Research Introduces Credit Conditions Index ...DJ- Ned Davis Research () has introduced the NDR Credit Conditions Index (CCI) which is designed to objectively measure credit conditions in the U.S. market, specifically the cost & availability of credit.

The credit cycle is a crucial determinant of economic and financial market performance. Easy credit is associated with strong economic growth and above-average stock market returns. Tight credit is associated with weak growth and below average equity returns.

While the index is still safely above its historical mean, it has begun to trend down in recent months.

The NDR CCI consists of two equal-weighted components, the NDR Business CCI, which is composed of 16 individual factors, and the NDR Consumer CCI, which is composed of nine factors.

The indicators for each index range from market-based variables such as credit default swap spreads and option-adjusted spreads to survey-based indicators such as the Senior Loan Officer Survey and various other bank surveys.

About Ned Davis Research:

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Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 11:19:35 AM

Fannie Mae (FNM) $62.92 -5.32% ... defensive ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 11:17:04 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 11:14:09 AM

We may be chunking and jiving here but the bulls still have the ball. Link

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 11:10:43 AM

I swtiched my VIX/SPX charts back to VIX/ES - the SPX futures - because the first bar of the day on the SPX charts was not giving me a true daily high and low. I do see ES now testing its daily lows but the VIX is saying those lows will hold or, if they break, there will not be any follow through. Link

Keene Little : 8/13/2007 11:09:52 AM

For the scenario for two equal legs up from Friday's low the pullback/consolidation should be finishing up here and now rally to a new high to finish the leg up from Friday afternoon. If instead we continue to pullback and close this morning's gaps then it's going to look like we'll be in a larger consolidation perhaps not too different from the ascending triangle idea I showed for the DOW (10-min chart posted last night--see below). It would mean a choppy price pattern for most of today with some potentially big moves since volatility has been high.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 11:03:15 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 11:00:09 AM

CME Group Extends Offerings of S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Contracts ... Out to 60 months. Scheduled to begin trading September 17.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 10:57:07 AM

Dow Jones U.S. Select Dividend Index (Weekly Performance Data) Link

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 10:52:23 AM


Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 10:50:46 AM

Not sure I should even be posting this chart because it is unreadable to me. I sort of see the green dotted 200EMA as resistance but MAs don't play a huge roll in support and resistance, IMHO. I find MAs useful for comparing one market to another but not for determining support or resistance.

The double top made at 856 was confirmed when 820 broke. So 856-820= 36 gives you a target of 820-36=784. That has been hit and now this market seems to at a loss of what to do. Link

Keene Little : 8/13/2007 10:36:25 AM

Still consolidating which continues to look good for another run higher once it's done. Then the new high, hopefully right around the levels I gave earlier, will be the setup to get short. Watching and waiting for the setup.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 10:34:19 AM

VIX to new daily lows tells me the SPX will make new daily highs here real soon. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 10:32:34 AM

Citigroup Cuts Chile And Argentina Equities; Upgrades Peru

DJ- Citigroup made several changes to recommendations on countries, sectors and individual companies in its Latin American model equity portfolio, saying Monday that it is "looking to buy on any weakness" in the current bout of global market volatility.

Citi said in a research report that it downgraded Chilean equities to underweight on weakening domestic fundamentals, among other factors, and pared its Argentine exposure to zero weight "given the risk of major market turbulence after October's (presidential) election" and dubious fiscal policy. Citi raised Peru to neutral on an improved outlook for materials stocks, which form the bulk of Peru's major equities. Peruvian banks also present an "attractive investment opportunity," Citi said.

As for sectors, Citi said it is taking on a bit more risk by lifting Brazilian materials stocks to overweight. The investment house offset this upgrade by cutting Brazilian telecoms to neutral. Brazil is still Citi's top Latin American pick through mid-2008, the report said.

Meanwhile, Citi said it added Brazilian paper and pulp company Aracruz Papel e Celulose SA (ARA), Peruvian banking group Credicorp Ltd. (BAP) and Mexico's Coca-Cola Femsa SA (KOF) to its regional focus list. The investment firm has dropped Brazilian wireless provider TIM Participacoes SA (TSU), Mexican restaurant operator Alsea (ALSEA.MX) and Mexican soft-drink bottler Femsa (FMX).

Citi said despite high volatility in financial markets, it doesn't expect the correction in Latin American equities to top 15%. The asset class is down 10.2% so far in the latest sell-off, according to the report.

Regional equity markets should "stay highly volatile below their record highs for several weeks, with a decisive breakout of the ongoing bull market unlikely until into the fourth quarter," Citi said.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 10:24:31 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. businesses built up their inventories in June, the Commerce Department reported Monday.

Inventory levels rose 0.4%, while sales decreased 0.3%, marking the biggest drop since January.

Economists had been expecting a 0.4% gain in inventories, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 10:23:12 AM

Internals are still bullish so be careful if short. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 10:13:30 AM

TD Ameritrade Phishing Alert! ... As a service to those that may utilize TD Ameritrade for Stock/Option transactions ... TD Ameritrade is currently investigating an Internet phishing attack that directs clients to a fraudulent Web site that looks like theirs, but isn't. Once there, clients are asked to reveal personal and financial information. If you are suspicious about an inquiry that appears to be coming from TD Ameritrade, either via e-mail or on the Internet, please contact TD Ameritrade. (1-888-871-9007)

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 10:08:26 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/13/2007 10:05:00 AM

Some people, myself included, are experiencing problems with the Market Monitor (shows an error page). There's an autorefresh version that's working right now and while this post won't help those who are currently having a problem, add this link to your favorites in case you need it in the future (or want to use it now): Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 10:03:52 AM

NASDAQ a/d 1,726/978

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 10:03:37 AM

NYSE a/d 2,171/859

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 10:03:21 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 9:54:53 AM

I would not be marrying any short positions today, internals are bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 9:52:02 AM

Blackstone Net Income More Than Triples ... Earnings Press Release Link

BX $26.65 +5.41% ...

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 9:51:20 AM

Economic Reports out today - 10:00a.m. June Business Inventories. Expected: +0.4%. Previous: +0.5%

Keene Little : 8/13/2007 9:50:45 AM

We might see a little consolidation here (maybe about an hour) followed by another high to the levels for two equal legs up from Friday's lows. If it plays out that way then it will be followed at least by a pullback to correct the move up from Friday afternoon if not start a much more serious decline.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 9:49:50 AM

Goldman Hedge Fund Gets $3 Billion Bailout From Investors ... AP Story Link

GS $183.92 +1.89% ...

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 9:41:56 AM

RUT is bumping up against its PDH but both SPX and DOW have broken their respective PDH albeit not by much. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 9:39:40 AM

Last 3 Weekly Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 9:43:24 AM

Lately the AD line spends most of its time either above +1000 or below -1000. Today it looks like it will be above +1000 for it is now at +1481.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 9:36:03 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The European Central Bank on Monday injected another 47.5 billion euros ($65 billion) in loans into the banking system and is reportedly in talks with the U.S. Federal Reserve on a currency swap, so it can provide dollars to European banks struggling to meet money-market needs.

Should the ECB and Fed agree on such a swap, the Frankfurt-based central bank would exchange euros or other currencies it holds for dollars.

The ECB and the Fed would then unwind the trade after a fixed term -- say 30 days, as done in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks -- and the ECB would pay a small amount extra to reflect the 1.25 percentage point gap in the central banks' interest rates.

The ECB, which last week pumped more than 150 billion euros into the European banking system, is reportedly seeking out dollars because of difficulties that European banks are having with funds invested in asset-backed securities, according to several British media reports.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 9:32:48 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs Group's $8 billion Global Alpha hedge fund has fallen 26% so far this year, a retreat that could lead skittish investors to cash out, according to a Friday report citing unnamed sources.

Goldman's biggest hedge fund has shed almost 40% since July 31, 2006 while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has risen 16%, Bloomberg reported.

The fund's decline has eaten away at fees paid to Goldman (GS) : , which pocketed $700 million from the fund after its 40% surge in 2005.

The poor performance could prompt redemptions.

Withdrawals for the fund's $6.2 billion offshore version came to $394 million in June, an unidentified investor told Bloomberg. That was almost triple the $142 million that flowed into the fund.

Jeff Bailey : 8/13/2007 9:32:34 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 9:29:39 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- U.S. retail sales opened the second quarter modestly yet a little stronger than expected, with a broad-based increase overcoming receding demand for cars, the government reported Monday.

Retail sales climbed 0.3% in July, the Commerce Department said. Sales fell 0.7% in June; originally, sales were seen down that month by 0.9%. The 0.3% increase was bigger than forecast; the median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was a 0.2% advance.

The retail sales report illustrates where Americans are spending their money. Consumer spending is a big part of the economy. It makes up about 70% of gross domestic product, which is the scoreboard for the economy.

The Commerce report showed automobile and parts sales decreased by 0.3% in July. June sales plunged 2.9%.

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 9:19:42 AM

Crude is breaking its PDH after a bounce off the $70.00/bl support and my USO jtHMA charts are now showing a buy signal. USO is the crude Oil ETF that trades crude futures only, no Oil stocks and is why I like to use it as a proxy for trading Crude longer term. USO is not affected by the stock market only by the Crude Oil futures.

US$ is breaking its PDH but interestingly Gold is not breaking its PDL. These two will get back in sync at some point today for the US$ and Gold have a very strong inverse relationship.

The DAX is supporting the bullishness we are seeing in the American Index markets. Link

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 9:07:38 AM

A series of higher highs and lows means the trend is up but the bulls have nothing to party about quite yet, no market has broken its PDH yet. Link

Jane Fox : 8/13/2007 9:03:43 AM

Dateline WSJ - Karl Rove, President Bush's longtime political adviser, is resigning as White House deputy chief of staff effective Aug. 31, and returning to Texas, marking a turning point for the Bush presidency.

Mr. Rove's departure removes one of the White House's most polarizing figures, and perhaps signals the effective end of the lame duck administration's role in shaping major domestic policy decisions. Mr. Rove revealed his plans in an interview with Paul Gigot, editor of The Wall Street Journal's editorial page.

Mr. Rove, who has held a senior post in the White House since President Bush took office in January 2001, told Mr. Gigot he first floated the idea of leaving a year ago. But he delayed his departure as, first, Democrats took Congress, and then as the White House tackled debates on immigration and Iraq, he said. He said he decided to leave after White House Chief of Staff Joshua Bolten told senior aides that if they stayed past Labor Day they would be obliged to remain through the end of the president's term in January 2009.

"I just think it's time," Mr. Rove said in the interview. "There's always something that can keep you here, and as much as I'd like to be here, I've got to do this for the sake of my family." Mr. Rove and his wife have a home in Ingram, Texas, and a son who attends college in nearby San Antonio.

Keene Little : 8/13/2007 8:59:20 AM

Two equal legs up off Friday's low is at YM 13414 (DOW 13372) and ES 1478.25 (SPX 1472.22) so the futures may be pointing to those levels getting tagged this morning if there will be at least a little follow through to the positive futures (instead of an immediate gap n crap). The bounce off Friday's low can still be classified as a correction to the decline so be careful chasing it higher.

As compared to the DOW 10-min chart (posted last night), with an ascending triangle consolidation pattern, this SPX 10-min chart shows more of a bull flag potential: Link The 1472 projection is only 2 points shy of a 62% retracement of last week's decline and could set up a very strong sell off from there so it will be worth testing the short side.

Keene Little : 8/13/2007 8:43:42 AM

Equity futures are up big so it looks like there could be a relief rally today if we see some follow through. My QCharts is not reporting Globex prices so if you're experiencing the same it looks like a QCharts problem. My QuoteTracker (getting its data from Interactive Brokers) is reporting OK. YM is up 115, having pulled back about 20 points, and ES is up 17, about 1.50 points below its morning high.

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