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Jeff Bailey : 8/22/2007 2:35:44 AM

YM 13,147

Jeff Bailey : 8/22/2007 2:35:22 AM

2-year Note Note (zt07u) alert! 120'312 -0.15% ... retraces 19.1% of its 6/13/07 low to recent 8/16/07 high.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 11:52:47 PM

Google: Bid in FCC Spectrum Auction "Probable"
Delighted by FCC spectrum auction rules.
FCC net neutrality principles "pretty good."
No reasonable wireless broadband services in US.

Keene Little : 8/21/2007 10:48:02 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

It's looking like we're in some kind of correction of the July-Aug decline and the form of the price pattern leaves a lot of possibilities from here. I'll show a couple of SPX charts to show what levels I'm watching and what price paths we could see next, which I'll use to help me decipher which larger price pattern we could be in. It's a little confusing since we're in a corrective price pattern which can be difficult to figure out real time.

I've been showing a couple of possibilities the past two days, the last one showing a rally out of the recent consolidation: Link This one calls for a rally right from here (or after a small pullback on Wednesday) and on up to the 1515-1520 area for a deep retracement of the decline.

But I don't particularly like that interpretation (not that it can't happen). The ascending wedge looks more bearish and this chart shows the possibility for a little more rally and then a deeper pullback at a minimum: Link This pattern calls for another push higher tomorrow which will then set up a larger pullback/decline into the end of the week.

It looks like the 1463 area could be tough resistance if it gets there. This is where the top of the wedge will be by the end of the day, it's the 50% retracement of the July-Aug decline, the downtrend line from August 19th will be near there by the end of the day and the broken uptrend line from July 2006 is currently near 1460.

So I'm watching to see if price pushes up to that resistance area and then what happens next. If it pushes right up through then look for the 1515-1520 area next. But if it drops back below 1440 then it will be a sell signal. How far it drops is the next question--it could be just a pullback before rallying higher again as part of a larger 3-wave bounce or it could continue down to new lows.

And if it drops out of the gate on Wednesday and then finds support around 1423 then we could set up for an earlier rally leg up to the 1503 area as shown on this 60-min chart: Link If it drops to 1423, bounces and then heads back below 1423 then we'd probably be looking at something more bearish--a deeper pullback as a minimum as shown on the daily chart: Link

Needless to say we need more price action to help clear this up. In the meantime take care in your trading since it looks like we could be in the middle of a very choppy correction with lots of whipsaws to come.

One other chart to watch for some clues will be the NDX. Techs did well on Tuesday but NDX ran into potential resistance in the 1910-1917 area. This price area is where NDX found support on the way down (so now resistance?) and is the potential broken neckline of a H&S top. A kiss goodbye here could look very bearish: Link

The same could be said about a pullback on SPX after tagging its broken 200-dma and uptrend line from July 2006. It will look like a kiss goodbye and could get a lot of institutions selling if they see SPX not able to recapture its 200-dma. As usual, and more important right now, we'll take this one leg at a time until the pieces are in place to make a better prediction of what's going to play out in the next 1-2 weeks.

OI Technical Staff : 8/21/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

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Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 8:39:39 PM

YM went out right at the 80.9% dynamic Link

5-year went out in between its 80.9% and 61.8% (see 02:53:50).

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 8:29:35 PM

Japan July Trade Surplus -21.1% Y/Y; Expected -10.2%

Unadjusted trade surplus Y671.2B
July Exports +11.7% on year
Imports +16.9% on year
China trade deficit Y185.7B; +15.4% Y/Y
Asia trade surplus Y663.0B; -1.9% Y/Y
US trade surplus Y743.8B; -4.1% Y/Y

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 8:24:33 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 8:11:20 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/21/2007 4:20:57 PM

Please show me how to see bearish divergences. What settings should I use and on which chart? (30,60,etc). Thanks a lot.

You'll see on my charts that I like to use faster settings on my oscillators than those that are considered"standard". Instead of 12,26,9 for MACD I like using 8,13,5 (notice they're all Fib numbers) and instead of 14 for RSI I like to use either 8 or 13. For stochastics I like 5(3),3. These faster settings will give you more false signals if you try trading the turns off them but I use them more for divergences rather than the crosses in overbought or oversold. RSI and MACD are my two favorite indicators for this.

An example is the daily chart of SPX that I've been showing: Link . Notice the divergence between the new price highs between May and July but lower highs in the oscillators. As you can see, divergences don't give you exact timing points but instead give you a heads up that the move is losing momentum. You then combine this with your other tools to identify support and resistance (trend lines, Fibs, moving averages, etc.) and set up a trade accordingly. This technique works on all time frames.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 4:14:29 PM

Excellent comment on CNBC regarding how hedge funds buy HIGH RISK debt. They first plan on BUYING ON THE WAY DOWN.

For me, that's "OK" with debt. You're really buying YIELD, and are willing to start at the first attractive YIELD.

Do it SLOWLY at first with a 1/4 position.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 3:56:40 PM

Swing trade bullish call alert! ... for one (1) of the Google GOOG Sep $540 Calls (GOP-IX) at the offer of $2.75.

GOOG $507.08.

No Stop, target $540.

Keene Little : 8/21/2007 3:53:05 PM

One more idea for what kind of bounce could develop here, and this one is shown in case you're depending on a pullback to get out of a short position or hoping for a better entry to get long--we might not get it. It's possible we're seeing a high level consolidation for the b-wave that I showed earlier on the 60-min chart, to be followed by a strong rally in wave-C. This interpretation says we've seen about all the pullback we're going to get: Link

This bounce would have SPX making it up to the 1515-1518 area for two equal legs up and a 78.6% retracement. It's a bit funky looking but it could also be an inverse H&S pattern playing out here and it has an upside price objective near 1520. These are tricky corrective patterns to try to predict so don't get yourself caught on either side with the market moving against you. These are the times to trade very light or not at all until the larger picture clears up some.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 3:49:04 PM

Dow 30 Components sorted by price for this price-weighted index at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 3:39:38 PM

Permian Basin Trust (PBT) $13.39 +1.39% ... Closed out this 1/3 bullish position earlier today at $13.12.

Weak energy prices today and being out of the office from 8/25 to 09/03 had me deciding to move to the side.

Production VOLUMES were up for latest month, as WERE oil prices. Nat. Gas prices were flat-to-lower.

Going to be lower next month is my thinking.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 3:34:18 PM

Look at that little'ol PHF $8.99 +2.15% ... bugger has battled back after trading at 17% dicsount to NAV on 08/16/07 Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 3:31:43 PM

Similar action as to yesterday afternoon ... YM 13,150.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 3:28:03 PM

Hey! NDX traded its DAILY R2 today. Have to go back to 08/02/07 to see that.

On 08/02/07, NDX's WEEKLY Pivot was above at 1,986.

NDX witnessed 1.5 days of weakness after 08/02/07, then had a nice bullish run to 1,995 by 08/08/07.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 3:23:01 PM

NDX 1,906.05 +0.68% ... its 61.8% dynamic "well below" at 1,897.40.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 3:21:37 PM

OEX 673.36 -0.11% ... its 61.8% dynamic is 673.75.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 3:20:36 PM

SPX 1,445.40 -0.01% ... its 61.8% dynamic is 1,445.72.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 3:19:41 PM

RUT.X 787.87 +0.05% .... its 61.8% dynamic is at 787.27.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 3:18:47 PM

Today's close might become an important one.

From the 5-year Yield ($FVX.X) dynamic, we see that it went out juuuust under its 61.8% of 42.57, or 4.257%.

YM's 61.8% dynamic is 13,136.

Does market want to go home short? Long? or rather flat?

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 3:14:36 PM

Should'a stopped at the first long?

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 3:14:06 PM

YM 13,132 ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 3:13:02 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link ... Looks like 13-week traders did sell, but took the cash and divided it into thirds and placed it 5, 10 and 30.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 3:04:08 PM

YM short should be stopped alert ... at 13,141.

YM 13,136.

May go out at daily pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 3:03:04 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 3:00:38 PM

Hold onto your hats .... YM 13,130

Keene Little : 8/21/2007 2:58:07 PM

Here's an update to yesterday's SPX daily chart with my guess as to how price could play out for the rest of the year based on a typical decline pattern (similar to the one from the 2000 high): Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 2:55:51 PM

5-minute until Treasury bond market closes.

YM 13,114.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 2:53:50 PM

5-year ($FVX.X) ... 5-minute interval day trader's chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 2:48:20 PM

YM short lower stop alert ... to 13,141.

YM 13,119. Post profile short low has been 13,107.

Keene Little : 8/21/2007 2:47:40 PM

After yesterday's and today's price action I haven't changed my opinion that we'll get a pullback followed by another rally leg. But the higher level consolidation probably means less of a pullback and that gives us a higher projection for the next leg up. This continues to be speculation on my part as to what price is doing (predicting corrective moves with EW analysis is one of the hardest things to do) but it might looks something like this now (SPX 60-min chart): Link

This pattern calls for a pullback to SPX 1423-1424 and then a rally up to almost 1503 (for two equal legs up). It's possible we'll get a more serious decline started (meaning the corrective bounce might be ending) but the first thing to try will be a long off a pullback, if we get one.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 2:42:27 PM

Here is the emini contract for the Russell 2000 index and the S&P small cap 600 index. HMM certainly doesn't look like this contract will work for day trading. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 2:41:41 PM

The YM and $FVX.X look "tied at the hip" intra-day. Again... not certain what to expect after 03:00 PM EDT. Will watch $FVX.X to its close.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 2:40:00 PM

5-year has pulled under its 61.8% dynamic. Down 4.9 bp at 4.253.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 2:38:51 PM

YM short alert ... here at 13,133. Stp 13,157. Target 13,040.

Linda Piazza : 8/21/2007 2:39:24 PM

Like Jeff in his recent comment, I don't have any prediction of where markets will go in the last hour of trading. I'm seeing the SPX caught between resistance currently at about 1456 on 15-minute closes and support currently at about 1438 and then 1431 on 15-minute closes. At the same time, I'm seeing the USD/yen similarly caught between resistance at 114.73-114.87 on 15-minute closes and support at 113.87 on 15-minute closes. I don't see a breakout yet either direction, on either vehicle. The USD/yen's nonconfirmation of the SPX's attempt to rise did provide a heads up that the SPX wouldn't continue its breakout attempt earlier today so I do suggest that you watch this currency pair for clues. In addition, if you're trading the SPX, OEX or Dow, you might watch the TRAN for clues or confirmation.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 2:38:42 PM

Here is the Russell Small Cap 2000 index $rut.x and the S&P Small Cap 600 $SML.X. Very similar patterns but of course the liquidity will be different. Next I will compare the futures. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 2:25:20 PM

No idea what to expect at bond market's 03:00 Close. If YM is below DAILY Pivot, I think we'd have to be thinking short.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 2:20:03 PM

13-week also reversing ... up just 20 bp at 31.50.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 2:19:22 PM

YM Long stopped alert! 13,144

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 2:19:07 PM

YM long raise stop alert! to 13,144 ... now!

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 2:18:37 PM

Pretty good downside reversal now taking place in 5, 10 and 30.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 2:16:04 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $198.06 +5.60% Link ... trade here at $198 gets stock back on a "buy signal" and negates the bearish vertical count to $160.

A very short-term downward trend on 60-minute interval chart at $199.00.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 2:11:03 PM

13-week up 72 bp at 3.670% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 2:10:35 PM

This is anybody's game now ... YM 13,156.

5-year down 1.8 bp, 10-year down 2.0 bp and 30-year down 1.0 bp.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 2:03:23 PM

NHC: Hurrican Dean Weakens To Category 1 Storm

Max sustainds winds around 85 MPH
Still over Yukatan Moving W at 18 MPH.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 1:58:39 PM

Very slow trading today and as you can see YM and ER have still not broken their PDHs yet. Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 1:54:07 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Unless the economy is affected, extreme volatility in financial markets provides no justification for the Federal Reserve to cut its target for the overnight federal funds lending rate, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffery Lacker said Tuesday.

"Financial market volatility, in and of itself, does not require a change in the target federal funds rate, in my view," said Lacker in a speech to the Charlotte Risk Management Association. "Interest-rate policy needs to be guided by the outlook for real spending and inflation.

Financial turbulence has the potential to change the assessment of the appropriate rate if it induces a sufficient revision in growth or inflation prospects," he said.

Keene Little : 8/21/2007 1:53:55 PM

The techs are having a good day today with NDX up 20 points here. Its bounce pattern is subject to interpretation but the move up from last Thursday's low looks suspiciously corrective (double zigzag a-b-c-x-a-b-c) which calls for only a minor new high to finish it. That would then set up at least a deeper pullback if not a more serious decline. So look for a new high, perhaps 1915-1920, with bearish divergences to try the short side there. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 1:53:34 PM

TRIN looks to be corrected now ... 0.91

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 1:52:50 PM

Buyers certainly don't appear to be in a rush today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 1:39:08 PM

5-year unch at 4.302% ... a little bit of cash coming out of Treasuries.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 1:38:26 PM

30-year unch at 4.970% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 1:35:29 PM

YM ... day trader's 5-minute interval chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 1:30:19 PM

YM long from 13,177 alert! ... stop goes 13,145 to begin. Targeting 13,225.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 1:29:06 PM

YM Long entry alert! 13,177.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 1:28:33 PM

YM long setup alert ... with YM 13,166. Let's look to go LONG a trade at 13,177. Stop

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 1:26:03 PM

13-week Yield ($IRX.X) Alert! 3.630% ... 19.1% retracement of 2/22/07 high to 8/16/07 Low.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 1:12:03 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 1:03:01 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 12:59:36 PM

CEO $104.50 +0.26% ...

PTR $134.56 +0.13% ...

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 12:55:05 PM

Both YM and ER have not been able to break their respective PDHs. Link

Linda Piazza : 8/21/2007 12:51:20 PM

My second chart would not upload, so I'm going to try it once more. This is my impression of what I'm seeing on a 15-minute USD/yen chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 12:49:10 PM

Looks like the 13-week "giveth," and Lacker "tooketh away."

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 12:48:04 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks turned up again Tuesday after Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., offered reassurances that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is ready to move to address the credit crunch roiling the financial markets.

- "The bull case has come down to the Fed is going to save us." Peter Bookvar, Miller Tabak. Bernanke is ready to use "all the tools at his disposal" to ease the liquidity issues troubling Wall Street, said Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, who spoke to reporters after a closed-door meeting with Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

Linda Piazza : 8/21/2007 12:34:49 PM

I don't know if Jeff has mentioned it yet, so I'm sorry if I'm repeating information, but the Fed has been rather neutral in its temporary open market operations today. I see an add of $3.75 billion, with a maturity date tomorrow. However, part of that is replacing yesterday's $3.5 add that matured today. Unless I'm missing something, that's a $0.25 billion add, much smaller than we've seen lately.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 12:37:18 PM

Fed's Lacker ...

Fed policy must be guided by econ fundamentals.
Volatility by itself doesn't require fed fund target change
Sees US growth below trend for rest of '07
Inflation risk still "relevent" but encouraging signs.
Too soon to say core inflation on downward path
Finance-related econ risks "minor" outside of housing
Recent housing data have "dampened my optimism"
Business investment should hold up well
US labor market reasonably tight
Expects consumer to remain reasonably healthly

Keene Little : 8/21/2007 12:26:21 PM

The bounce off this morning's low continues to look like part of a larger correction and I don't trust the upside here. Shorting the market right now could be tricky but I'd prefer to probe these highs, if accompanied with bearish divergences, with a short play than to go long.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 12:04:08 PM

Swing trade long exit alert ... the 1/3 Permian Basin Trust (PBT) at the bid of $13.12, LIMIT $13.11.

Energy futures really getting hit to downside.

PBT does announce cash distribution of $0.126665/share, payable 9/17/07 to unit holders of record 8/31/07.

Not sure that it ($0.126665/share) is worth sticking around for.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 12:02:20 PM

Oil is continuing downward and is now tagging tis 100EMA.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 11:59:11 AM

Yesterday I mentioned a 3rd test of support would probably break - as long as there were not outside influences like hurricanes and what not. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 11:55:50 AM

Those last two are a "shocker" to me.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 11:55:23 AM

Dodd Presses Paulson To Ease Portfolio Caps

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 11:54:57 AM

Internals are looking a lot more bullish now but the AD volume is still not making new daily highs and until it does I believe the market will trade in fits and spurts and not the smooth and orderly fashion that daytraders love so much. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 11:54:56 AM

Dodd Fears Treasury Doesn't Appreciate Extent Of Housing Problems

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 11:54:24 AM

US Sen Dodd Says Bernanke Vows To Use All Tools Available

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 11:50:00 AM

13-week up 26bp at 3.210% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 11:49:33 AM

YM 13,200 ... watch 13,210 then DAILY R1 13,227.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 11:42:59 AM

YM 13,190 ...

Keene Little : 8/21/2007 11:41:00 AM

If the DOW manages to push higher, the broken uptrend line intersects the top of its little up-channel, that's been in play since Friday morning's pullback, near 13217 around 1:00 today.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 11:40:20 AM

NQ (NDX futures) is also the only market to break its overnight highs as well. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 11:39:57 AM

13-week up 26bp at 3.210% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 11:39:26 AM

YM long stop alert ... 13,165

Keene Little : 8/21/2007 11:38:47 AM

I'm watching a couple of trend lines and an up-channel for the DOW to see if we've got some short term support and resistance lines to watch for trading (if you feel the need to trade) and right now there's a downtrend line from August 8th and a broken uptrend line from last Thursday that intersect near 13148. Two equal legs up from this morning's low is at 13152. So this is a good area to watch for resistance to short. Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 11:36:59 AM

NQ is our stronger market today and is the only one to break its PDH so far. ES has sort of broken its daily highs but not by much.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 11:33:16 AM

YM Long raise stop alert to 13,165.

YM 13,177.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 11:29:40 AM

YM 13,150 ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 11:29:32 AM

13-week +26 bp at 3.210%

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 11:19:23 AM

13-week ($IRX.X) up 25 bp at 3.200%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 11:18:50 AM

YM Long alert! here at 13,131. Stop 13,115. Target 13,190.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 11:18:05 AM

You have some very clear support and resistance levels today that you can monitor. If ES breaks out of this range you want to see the VIX break its range as well. If the VIX does not then expect the break to not have any follow through and will only serve to widen the range. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 11:16:02 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 11:14:18 AM

Jeff my TRIN is 1.00.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 11:05:00 AM

TRIN 0.00 ????

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 11:02:32 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 10:57:30 AM

YM 13,129 ... sits on top of DAILY Pivot 13,125. Tough to get a sense of direction.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 10:51:43 AM

NHC: Hurricane Dean Weakens To Category 2; Winds At 105 Mph

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 10:45:28 AM

TRIN hit a high of 1.30 this morning but I now back down to 0.87

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 10:43:32 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Natural-gas futures touched their lowest level in 2 1/2 years Tuesday, extending the previous session's drop of nearly 14%, with Hurricane Dean judged likely to pose no threat key energy-production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 10:42:30 AM

NQ tags its PDH - again and is not able to break through. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 10:42:03 AM

Canada's 98-Day Bill Avg. Yld Falls to 4.009% From 4.609%

DJ- Average yield at this week's auction of C$4.7 billion (US$4.5 billion) of 98-day government of Canada treasury bills was 4.009%, down from 4.609% at the previous auction held Aug. 7.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 10:32:25 AM

KKR PLEDGES TO AID SHAKY AFFILIATE

DJ- KKR partners throws a bone to investors in KKR Financial Holdings, promising that in a worst-case scenario it will invest $100 million in the San Francisco real-estate company.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 10:31:58 AM

ATTICUS CAPITAL FALLS IN AUGUST

DJ- U.S. hedge fund manager known for helping unseat Deutsche Boerse's management in 2005 reports a loss of more than 8% for the first 10 days of August, its worst run of losses since it was launched in 2001, Financial News reports.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 10:31:28 AM

CARLYLE SHORES UP LISTED FUND RMBS

DJ- Carlyle Capital, listed in Amsterdam by private equity firm Carlyle Group to invest in residential mortgage-backed securities, says it has been forced to borrow a $100 million one year loan from its parent to meet margin calls.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 10:31:00 AM

BNP PARIBAS SET TO REOPEN FUNDS

DJ- French bank this week will reopen the three asset-backed securities funds, Parvest Dynamic ABS, BNP Paribas ABS Euribor and BNP Paribas ABS Eonia, that it had suspended over the U.S. subprime shakedown, the Financial News reports.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 10:30:31 AM

HURRICANE DEAN DAMAGE ALREADY IN BILLIONS

DJ- First hurricane of the 2007 Atlantic season already has caused an estimated $1.5 billion to $3 billion in insured losses on the Caribbean islands that it clobbered this weekend as it made its way toward the Yucatan and the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 10:30:05 AM

SAKS 2Q LOSS NARROWS AS MARGINS RISE

DJ- Luxury retailer reports net loss of $24.6 million, or 17c a share, compared with prior-year loss of $51.9 million. Net sales rise 15% to $694.1 million. Analysts expected a loss of 15c a share on revenue of $685 million.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 10:29:41 AM

CAPITAL ONE TO CLOSE ITS GREENPOINT UNIT

DJ- Capital One, citing 'an unprecedented set of market circumstances,' plans to shut down its struggling GreenPoint mortgage unit, keeping only pieces of a business valued at $6.3 billion just three years ago.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 10:29:12 AM

US RETAIL SALES DECLINE IN AUGUST

DJ- U.S. chain-store sales fall 0.7% in the first two weeks of August compared with the previous month, according to Redbook Research, which had targeted a 0.9% drop. Meanwhile, ICSC-UBS index shows chain store sales edging 0.2% higher.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 10:28:40 AM

I would not have my money in the market right now for anything. We have no idea what the "Trinity" will say and we have no idea how the markets will react to whatever they say.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 10:28:34 AM

BJ'S WHOLESALE 2Q NET JUMPS 37%

DJ- Membership warehouse retailer posts net income of $36.3 million, or 55c a share, which includes 9c in gains. Total revenue rises 8% to $2.29 billion. Analysts, on average, expected earnings of 41c a share on revenue of $2.29 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 10:28:08 AM

STAPLES 2Q NET, REVENUE CLIMB 11%

DJ- Office-supply company posts net income of $178.8 million, or 25c a share, on revenue of $4.29 billion, matching expectations. Retailer sees per-share earnings rising 15% for the 3Q and the full year, but sees flat same-store sales.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 10:27:43 AM

TARGET 2Q NET CLIMBS 13%, REVENUE UP 9.5%

DJ- Retailer earns $686 million, or 80c a share, matching Wall Street expectations. Revenue climbs to $14.62 billion, just shy of estimates of $14.67 billion, buoyed by new store expansion and its credit-card operations. Target's same-store sales for the quarter ended Aug. 4 rises 4.9%.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 10:27:41 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasurys continued to rise on Tuesday, sending yields lower, as investors waited for the outcome of a key meeting between Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Secretary Treasury Henry Paulson and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 10:24:51 AM

U.S. Foreclosures Rise Sharply in July ... AP Story Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 10:20:25 AM

US $ has certainly found support here. Goldbugs of course want this support to break giving them the go ahead to get long Gold. Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 10:18:57 AM

Natural Gas is now tagging yearly lows. MACD is telling me those lows will hold though. Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 10:16:52 AM

The American indexes are not the only markets in waiting mode. Crude, US$, Gold and the DAX are all just as neutral as the rest. Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 10:13:41 AM

So far overnight highs have been able to hold back the markets. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 10:14:28 AM

Asian Markets: Link

964-point range for the Hang Seng (21,652-22,616) Link .

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 10:12:20 AM

You probably all know the Russell 2000 futures will be moving to the ICE platform. Since I have never traded on this platform I will not move to the ICE until I see how it trades. Until then I will try to find some alternative to the Russell 2000 futures, which is the core of my daytrading.

Keene Little : 8/21/2007 10:06:38 AM

As per Jane's 9:42 reminder of the "trinity" meeting, it's certainly looking like the market is on hold. It's what you should be doing with your money while we wait this out.

Tab Gilles : 8/21/2007 10:05:13 AM

3 Month T-Bill/$SPX/$COMPQ 1987, 1998, currently... Link Link Link

$NYHILO/$VIX Link New Lows; Link $NAHILO/$VXN Link New Lows: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 10:02:40 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 9:50:54 AM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $79.03 +0.63% ... notable new 52-weeker at the NASDAQ.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 9:46:42 AM

AD line as improved to +450 and AD volume is now above 0.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 9:46:07 AM

VIX makes new daily lows as the S&P futures make new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2007 9:44:09 AM

Peoples Bank of China increased the rate that banks pay for one-year deposits by 27 basis points to 3.60%, and raised its benchmark for for lending rates by 18 basis points to 7.02%.

Reuters Story Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 9:42:29 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks dropped at the open Tuesday as investors nervously awaited the outcome of an emergency meeting between Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Secretary Treasury Henry Paulson and Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd.

Earlier talk that the meeting might lead to a hoped-for rate cut faded ahead of the opening bell, said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners.

"The markets are anxious to hear from the group of three - the trinity - that are going to meet today," Cardillo said.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 9:39:35 AM

I would be looking at overnight highs as resistance because they correspond to PDHs.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 9:38:46 AM

TRIN however is at 1.06, not reflecting the bearishness is the AD line and volume.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 9:38:05 AM

AD line is a bearish -994 and AD volume is below 0.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 9:30:07 AM

The DOW could stay in this trading zone for the rest of the summer and not reveal who is in control until everyone is back from vacation. Yesterday's low volatility day was painful after the wonderful range we have seen of late. Volatility is the lifeblood of traders and once they get a dose of day trading in volatile markets, like last week, it is hard to wean oneself back to reality. Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 9:21:11 AM

Here is a chart of the Russell 2000 daily. This is called a holding pattern and the bulls are waiting for the swing high on August 8th at 803 to break and the bears are waiting for the swing low on august 16th at 736 to break. Until then I remain neutral on this market. Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2007 9:15:21 AM

The markets made a lower around 4:00EDT and began a rally that took them to new overnight highs although they all found resistance at their respective previous day highs (PDHs) at approximated 8:30. That resistance is proving to be formidable and has held. Link

Keene Little : 8/21/2007 9:18:42 AM

There was a pretty decent trading range in the overnight futures, with ES swinging 18 points high to low, but it's looking like we could get a relatively flat open. With price chopping up and down, including overnight, it's a tough call for how the market is going to go this morning. I'm still waiting for further price action to help determine the larger trend. But I continue to think we'll get a pullback (or stay inside the trading range of the past two days) before rallying again.

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