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Keene Little : 9/3/2007 10:03:42 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

By several measures we have a very overbought market right now and that suggests a pullback this week. We've had a very volatile August and it's quite likely that will continue through September. Therefore a 700-point decline in the DOW followed by another big rally leg (dark red wave count on the following 120-min chart) would not be at all out of the ordinary: Link

But the bottom line is that we're potentially in a large corrective type pattern and as the 3 different price scenarios on my chart show, this could go anywhere. I'm continuing to trade this on a very short term basis until the bigger picture clears up. When looking at the daily chart I see the possibility for a rally to either the 13444 area from here (50-dma and 62% retracement) or up to just shy of 13600 (mid line of long term up-channel). It takes a drop below 12850 (uptrend line, 200-dma and 62% retracement of the August rally) to say the bulls are in serious trouble. Link

The SPX daily chart has a very similar chart as the DOW's. On its 120-min chart I show another possibility where we'll see price go sideways for another week or two before another rally leg. It takes a drop below 1412 for the bears to start claiming a victory. Link

The NDX daily chart shows upside potential to the mid line of its up-channel, currently near 2040. This is also near the level where the bounce off the August 16th low would have two equal legs up. But that doji star from Friday looks like a potential reversal signal for immediately lower prices. Link

The RUT had a clean EW pattern that looked bearish but Friday's rally made it more potentially bullish, at least for the short term. This one is simple--below 800 is bearish and above it is bullish although I see a lot of resistance levels just above with its moving averages, including its 50-dma and 200-dma getting close together just above 800. Link

OI Technical Staff : 9/3/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 9/3/2007 8:47:20 PM

The very narrow Dow Jones Bullish % (BPDJIA) reversed back up to "bear correction" status at 50% on 8/27/07 and still there. Each stock's Point & Figure chart worth 3.33% (30 stocks).

Jeff Bailey : 9/3/2007 8:41:55 PM

NYSE Bullish % (BPNYSE) up to 43.78% from 8/24/07 closing measure of 40.71%.

Jeff Bailey : 9/3/2007 8:39:53 PM

S&P 500 Bullish % (BPSPX) at 48.29%, which is right where it was on 8/24/07.

Jeff Bailey : 9/3/2007 8:26:46 PM

YM Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

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