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Keene Little : 9/4/2007 11:36:42 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

After hitting the Fib projection at SPX 1495 (2nd leg up = 62% of the 1st leg up from August 16th) and the top of its little parallel up-channel since the August 29th low we saw a quick drop near the end of the day. Now we wait to see if we'll get a pullback or something more serious. A drop below 1480 would be the first heads up that we've started at least a larger pullback. Link

The daily chart puts it into perspective where we are and shows the 100-dma acted as resistance as well: Link

The DOW was weaker today and didn't quite make it to its same 62% Fib projection nor to the top of its small parallel up-channel. A break below 13400 would signal a larger pullback in progress. Until then the trend is up. Link

NDX has been stronger lately and came very close to the Fib target zone of 2035-2038 (Tuesday's high was 2032). It did tag the top of its parallel up-channel from August 16th. This one might have topped out but if we get a choppy little pullback followed by a new high then I'll be watching for evidence of a top near the 2038 level (with bearish divergences) as an opportunity to get short. Link

By rallying above its previous high near 803 the RUT negated the wave count I had on it before ( Link ) and now is on the same wave count as the others (calling for an A-B-C bounce off the August 16th low): Link

This actually makes it easier since the major indices are now in synch. It could be tough resistance moving much higher since the 50-dma and 200-dma sit just above Tuesday's high. In fact after crossing below the 100-dma it's looking like we're only days away from the 50-dma crossing below the 200-dma. That's typically at least a very good intermediate sell signal.

Even our high flyers, GOOG and CME are looking like they could tip back over from here. GOOG tagged its first Fib projection target at 527.83 (2nd leg up = 62% of the 1st leg up from August 16th) and just shy of a 62% retracement of the July-Aug decline. It could tip over from here although the leg up from last week looks like it could use one more down-up sequence (shown in pink) to finish off its bounce. Link I show the possibility for a rally up to 541-542 but I have my doubts it will make it that high.

CME has been pushing up underneath a broken uptrend line and is nearing a 62% retracement of its August decline (570.20). After a very sharp and impulsive decline it has since been in a choppy bounce. That tells me the odds for another sharp decline are right around the corner. Link

OI Technical Staff : 9/4/2007 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 8:07:45 PM

NHC: Eye Of Hurricane Henriette Strikes Tip Of Mexico's Baja

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 8:06:01 PM

NHC: Hurricane Felix Downgraded To Tropical Storm

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 5:33:49 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Keene Little : 9/4/2007 4:59:32 PM

The daily chart of SPX shows price stopped dead at its 100-dma so there were a few things around the 1495-1496 area that formed resistance. I've got the key level at 1432 because a drop back below that level from here would leave a corrective 3-wave bounce which is what I'm expecting it to be. The only question in my mind has been, and continues to be, how high will the 2nd leg get. Today Might have been the high. Link

Keene Little : 9/4/2007 4:52:58 PM

As shown on the following SPX 60-min chart, it tagged the 62% projection of the 1st leg up. This raises the possibility that this afternoon's selloff was just the start of something more serious to the downside. Link

First thing the bears need to do is break the uptrend line from last Tuesday August 29th, currently near 1479. Until that happens then it's also just as possible we'll see a pullback followed by a continuation higher before topping out. But each of these highs (especially up against the top of its up-channel) is worth a try on the short side.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 4:50:59 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 4:34:50 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 9/4/2007 4:11:23 PM

The Beige Book tomorrow & the Employment Report on Friday will be pivotal reports. These reports and the expectations of a rate cut will continue to fuel this rally.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 4:07:06 PM

Economic reports for tomorrow include:

7:30a.m. August Challenger Layoffs. Previous: -23.0%.

8:15a.m. ADP/Macroeconomic Advisors Employment Estimate Non-Farm Payrolls Forecast. Expected: +80K. Previous: +92K.

10:00a.m. July Pending Home Sales. Previous: +5.0%.

2:00p.m. Fed Beige Book.

Keene Little : 9/4/2007 4:05:39 PM

And SPX peaked just above its 1495 Fib projection so tomorrow could be somewhat critical for what's next for the market. I'm thinking at least a pullback tomorrow and then I'll be watching the form of the decline (impulsive vs. corrective) for some clues as to what kind of pullback we might expect.

Keene Little : 9/4/2007 4:03:57 PM

Nice little dive into the close after NDX peaked just below the Fib targets I gave. Whether that was the high or not (might get a quick stabl higher tomorrow), this late-day selling looks potentially bearish for tomorrow.

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 4:01:35 PM

The 72-ema has even more relevance on the RUT's chart, and it couldn't manage a close above it today. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 3:58:50 PM

The SPX's 72-ema is now at 1480.05. It would take a big whoosh down the last few minutes of trading to close below that moving average, but as I noted in an earlier post, such a piercing of and then close below that moving average would be worrisome for bulls. In fact, too much more of a pullback now would drop the SPX below the 50-sma at the close. I don't think the 50-sma has had the same relevance on the daily chart, as the SPX has been criss-crossing it much more often, but it wouldn't be good for sentiment to have the close be beneath this often-watched moving average.

Tab Gilles : 9/4/2007 3:52:36 PM

Three ETFs looking at their 50 & 200 ma.

QQQQ Link I recommended the Profunds UOPIX in August.

SPY just breaking over the 50-ma. Link

IWM Trailing but ready to follow the SPY & QQQQ? I recommended the UAPIX last month. Link Also take a look at the in-the-money Jan LEAP $78 IOWAZ.

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 3:50:22 PM

You had time to plan for the SPX's approach to its upside targets if you were in bullish plays, so stick to your plan whatever it was. Perhaps that plan was to follow the SPX higher with a stop and let a deep enough pullback hit your stop and take you out at a profit, never letting your accumulated profit turn into a loss. Perhaps you began stepping out of partial positions as the SPX approached that upside target. This is one reason that I like to watch Keltner charts, as they do provide potential upside targets and it's possible to plan how you'll deal with them. So far, no real damage has been done, as the SPX continues to maintain prices above the 30-minute 9-ema, but this could be an ugly 30-minute candle and I continue to be worried about the USD/yen's failure to confirm with a breakout of its own. The USD/yen is still within striking distance of such a breakout, though, with its current value at 116.24.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 3:47:35 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- No one was in favor of cutting the Federal Reserve's discount lending rate during a key Fed meeting on Aug. 6, just 11 days before it did cut the rate in an emergency move, according to a meeting summary released Tuesday.

The Federal Reserve Board of Directors' meeting on Aug. 6 came the day before the Federal Open Market Committee met and kept the federal funds overnight lending rate steady at 5.25%.

At the time, credit problems stemming from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market were spreading in U.S. financial markets.

At the Aug. 6 meeting, "several" of the five sitting Fed governors noted "somewhat less accommodative financial conditions for some borrowers." However, they concluded that "the economy overall was viewed as relatively healthy." according to the minutes of the meeting.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 3:46:12 PM

VIX and SPX are in sync today. Notice the spike in the VIX was accompanied by a sell off in the SPX? Link

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 3:44:01 PM

If I'm looking at the calendar correctly, I don't see any big economic events scheduled for tonight in Japan. Tomorrow morning, however, the Eurozone August Services PMI and July Eurozone Retail Sales and UK August CIPS Services PMI will all be released. In addition, the Bank of Canada has a rate-hike decision due tomorrow morning about thirty minutes before our open. I'm honestly not sure how much those services PMIs will move UK and Eurozone markets as I'm not certain of the relative importance of manufacturing to services in the UK and Eurozone economies. I would think that advocates of a rate reduction here in the U.S. would be watching that Bank of Canada decision rather closely, however.

Keene Little : 9/4/2007 3:39:31 PM

And since the techs have led the show to the upside I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see them lead us back down.

Keene Little : 9/4/2007 3:39:02 PM

One other Fib projection for NDX is just shy of 2035 for an extended 5th wave in the leg up from August 29th. This adds some credibility that the 2035-2040 area holds the potential for a top of some significance for NDX.

Keene Little : 9/4/2007 3:36:42 PM

NDX is also hitting the top of its parallel up-chanel for price action since the August 16th low. So stay aware of the possibility that we'll see topping soon. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 3:34:54 PM

USD/yen now at 116.23. Still not breaking out to a new day's high.

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 3:34:13 PM

The SPX has now advanced within a few points of its inverse H&S upside target (at about 1499.33) and its 30-minute Keltner target (currently 1498.42 on 30-minute closes). If you didn't do so after my 2:50:08 post, it's time now to decide on a plan if you're in bullish trades, plans for treating the approach to the upside targets.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 3:33:39 PM

Wow! ... Big beat Vs. consensus.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 3:33:05 PM

Consesus for Domestic Vehicle Sales was 11.9 Million.

Keene Little : 9/4/2007 3:31:51 PM

NDX is also getting closer now to its 2038 Fib target (two equal legs up from the August 16th low). This is a level I'll be watching carefully for a short play. If a short doesn't set up there then the bulls could carry this a lot higher.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 3:31:36 PM

US August Domestic Auto Sales Said 12.5 To 12.7 Million Rate

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 3:30:59 PM

US August Total Auto Sales Said 16.1 To 16.3 Million Rate

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 3:28:53 PM

USD/yen now at 116.33. This is not yet a day's high, nor is it above Friday's 116.59 high, but the currency pair appears to be trying to follow equities higher this afternoon. The descending trendline off the 8:23 high is now at about 116.50.

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 3:23:24 PM

We could be setting up for an important VIX test this afternoon or tomorrow: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 3:17:22 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 3:16:48 PM

Once the weekly SPX jtHMA indicator turns closes green I will be putting my daughter's and husband's 401(k) money back to work. That correction was scary but I do believe it is over and we will see at least a test of the yearly highs before the year is over. Link

Keene Little : 9/4/2007 3:09:12 PM

This is just another "don't fight the Fed" day. I suspect they're continuing to inject liquidity into the market through their primary dealers and into the stock market (the bond market is being ignored). It's simply not worth trying to fight it if you're looking for a shorting opportunity. Need to let this work itself through.

Keene Little : 9/4/2007 3:03:35 PM

The market is just chugging higher with very little apparent selling interest. SPX has made it through the 1490 area with no problem and the next Fib level of interest is 1495. This is where the 2nd leg up in the rally from August 16th is equal to 62% of the 1st leg up. The top of its parallel up-channel for price action since August 16th is currently closer to 1497. And then the trend line along the highs since August 17th is much higher near 1516. So there remains more upside potential and I continue to watch for any evidence of topping but nothing yet. Stay bullish for now.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 3:02:37 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 2:59:52 PM

Here's a chart showing the SPX's relationship to the 72-ema over the last six months. It's just one of many moving averages that people watch, but it's seemed to mark bullish/bearish actions for a while to me. The arrow points to the 8/08 punch above and close below that moving average. I don't see any evidence so far that the SPX will drop back to that average by the day's close, but it wouldn't be good for bullish hopes if it did. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 3:00:35 PM

GM August U.S. Sales Up 6.1%; Ford, Toyota Post Declines (update)

DJ- U.S. auto makers, battered by economic headwinds, Tuesday posted mixed August U.S. sales with General Motors Corp. (GM) reporting a surprising increase.

Meanwhile, Ford Motor Co. (F) posted a 14% skid in sales for the month and said it sees higher fourth-quarter production. Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) posted a 2.8% sales drop.

GM said its U.S. sales of cars and light trucks for August rose 6.1% from a year ago, but the company lowered its third-quarter production forecast and sees lower fourth-quarter output.

There were 27 selling days in August, the same as a year ago.

GM, the largest U.S. auto maker, lowered its North American third-quarter production forecast to 1.05 million vehicles, a drop of 25,000 vehicles, or 2%, from the previous month's estimate. The company set its fourth-quarter North American production forecast at 1 million vehicles, down 107,000, or 10%, from actual fourth-quarter numbers. In the fourth quarter of 2006, GM production was 14% below year-earlier levels.

Analysts had said GM was likely to announce a fourth-quarter cut as inventories of its pickup trucks and SUVs rise amid a downturn in sales.

Mark LaNeve, GM's vice president for North America Vehicle Sales, said: "Bucking the trend in the industry, we were able to post healthy sales results in August. When combining retail sales with our growing commercial business, our sales were up when compared with last August. Importantly, last month was our third-best retail month of the year."

"With the double-digit decline in daily rental sales so far this year, and an overall market that remains challenging and competitive, we continue to stabilize our retail share and pricing in the market."

GM said sales of cars and light trucks stood at 385,529 in August, up from 363,521 a year earlier. Sales of light trucks rose 17% to 241,013, while car sales fell 7.8% to 144,516.

Generally, analysts had expected U.S. light-vehicle sales to be down to roughly flat from a year ago. The slowdown in the home-construction market has been particularly tough on Detroit's lucrative pickup-truck sales.

Shares of GM traded recently at $31.39, up 2.1%.

Toyota blamed the credit crunch dampening consumer confidence for its drop in U.S. sales in August. Still, the company continued to gain ground on Ford in the battle for the title of No. 2 U.S. auto maker.

The Japanese auto maker, said it sold 233,471 vehicles in August, compared with 240,178 a year ago. Year-to-date, Toyota's sales trail Ford by 3,626.

Ford, which has been slashing fleet sales, sold 218,332 cars and light trucks last month, down 14%. It was the second straight month in which Toyota outsold Ford.

The housing weakness also affected Toyota. The company's car sales dropped 6% last month to 135,507, while light-truck sales increased 2% to 97,964 amid a 69% surge by the Tundra pickup. Toyota's SUV sales dropped 6.7%.

Toyota President Katsuaki Watanabe acknowledged last week that Toyota's U.S. sales have been affected somewhat by the subprime-mortgage debacle. Toyota rakes in about half its annual profit from the U.S., the world's largest auto market.

Toyota snatched the position as the world's top-selling auto maker from GM in the first quarter of this year.

Ford's retail sales for the latest period fell 13%, indicating Ford's strategy to stem declines in sales to consumers at dealerships is off track.

Ford's passenger-car sales fell 34% to 64,864, while sales of trucks and sport-utility vehicles - representing Ford's most profitable business - were down 2.4% to 153,468.

The auto maker plans to produce 640,000 vehicles in North America in the fourth quarter, representing a 6% increase from a year ago, when it implemented one of its largest production cuts in its 104-year history. Ford, Dearborn, Mich., left its third-quarter forecast unchanged at 640,000 vehicles.

Chief Executive Alan Mulally has warned that Ford faces a "difficult" second half as it races to reduce capacity to match falling U.S. sales. In a move to spur sales, Ford on Tuesday said it will offer up to $1,000 discounts on nearly all of its 2007 and 2008 model-year Ford-branded vehicles during September.

Shares of Ford rose 13 cents, or 1.6%, to $7.93 in recent trading.

The August sales results come amid a triple whammy of housing-market weakness, high fuel prices and tighter credit.

The U.S. auto makers were attempting to rebound from a June and July in which the pace of sales fell to a near-decade low. July marked the first month that GM, Ford and Chrysler were outsold on their home turf by overseas rivals. The Detroit giants are running hard to implement restructuring plans that could be in jeopardy as light-vehicle sales slide in their core market. Each of the Big Three has constructed restructuring plans that bank on a certain level of sales success in the U.S., and Ford and GM are lagging behind their expectations. The major U.S. auto makers have cut their 2007 U.S. industry sales outlooks amid growing pressures on American consumers. Meanwhile, Honda Motor Co. (HMC) posted its highest monthly sales ever, rising 4.7% from its prior record high in August 2005 to 156,173. The results were led by a 42% surge for the CR-V small SUV and a 37% jump for the Accord to 47,360.

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 2:50:08 PM

From 8/24 to the morning of 8/31, the SPX formed an inverse H&S on its 30-minute chart. The head was formed of another smaller inverse H&S. That smaller one was formed after a decline but the other larger one was formed in the midst of a choppy movement after a previous bottom, so wasn't the typical kind of bottoming inverse or reverse H&S that we typically see. It had a descending neckline that was crossed at about 1465.60 on Friday morning. I don't trust these formations any longer and so don't count on them meeting upside targets, but I did think I'd mention that potential upside target for the benefit of those who follow them. This target is just under 1500. The SPX has also set up an upside target on its Keltner charts that's currently at 1497.65 on 30-minute closes but that should move higher with the SPX price movement, if the SPX keeps climbing toward it.

So, while I wouldn't count on those targets being met, I do think that bulls are aiming toward them. This doesn't give us a lot of new information other than confirming what we already know: of course bulls are aiming for SPX 1500, a nice round number. Don't get in the way with a bearish play unless you see firm evidence that bullish fervor has been exhausted.

Bulls should plan for how they'll treat such a resistance test, if it's approached.

I also wanted to note that although the SPX punched over the 72-ema on 8/08, it closed back at that important moving average by the close. It has not closed above it since 7/25. That average is now at just over 1480. I don't see a thing that would suggest that the SPX would pull back that far by the close today, at least not so far, but I remain a little worried that the USD/yen is not at least following equities to a new day's high. It's at 116.12 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 2:42:53 PM

Google (GOOG) $525.25 +1.93% ... pulls free of WEEKLY R2 ($524.47) ... MONTHLY R1 $534.51 just ahead.

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 2:32:06 PM

I'm entirely too cautious for my own good sometimes (hence, those posts about the TRAN not confirming SPX strength), but I show the USD/yen at 116.17, still churning around near the day's high and not breaking out to a new high or above next resistance. Meanwhile, the RUT has broken higher as have many equity indices. So, I'm feeling just a little bit of caution here despite the fact that my caution as related to the TRAN's action has been proven wrong-headed. I typically want to see USD/yen breakouts leading or at least confirming equity ones, especially the RUT.

However, one of the reasons that I've been urging some caution about using USD/yen movements as too literal a predictor of price movements lately is that there have seemed to be a few instances (just anecdotal, nothing scientific) when I've observed price appearing to lead the USD/yen rather than the other way around. There's the chance that's happening today. If the yen carry trade has been unwound, I can foresee some instances when this currency pairs' action will not be as predictive or corroborative of likely equity action. So far, I think it's still important, as evidenced by the overnight movement in the USD/yen pretty well predicting what kind of morning we'd see on U.S. equities despite futures being below fair values this morning. The time may be coming when such comparisons are not as useful, but for now, I think we just have to be careful about how much reliance we put on the currency pair's actions while stills watching and remaining wary when there's no confirmation.

So, although I hesitate to say it, I'm a little cautious about being too exuberant here.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 2:25:29 PM

NASDAQ-100 (NDX.X) alert! 2,022.27 +1.68% ... gets the trade at WEEKLY R1.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 2:14:39 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Regulators including the Federal Reserve asked banks and other institutions Tuesday to pursue "loss mitigation" strategies for borrowers at risk of losing their homes, the latest move from Washington aimed at defusing the crisis in the subprime mortgage market.

In a statement, the Fed said many subprime and other mortgages have been transferred into securitization trusts governed by pooling and servicing agreements.

The regulators encouraged banks to help borrowers within those agreements. Regulators said banks could work out loan modifications, deferral of payments or a reduction in principal.

"We encourage servicers of securitized mortgages to reach out to financially stressed homeowners," said Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner. "Keeping families in their homes is a matter of great importance to the Federal Reserve."

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 2:06:49 PM

The US$ chart does not support the bullishness in Gold but at least it is not breaking resistance. A lot of the gold buying could be based on the rally in Crude. When Crude climbs so does Gold in a flight to the safety of the shiny metal. Link

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 2:04:48 PM

Egads so is Crude Link

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 2:04:19 PM

Gold is breaking a very important resistance as well today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 2:03:16 PM

Fed Discount Minutes: Bankers Said Housing Poses Risk To Growth

DJ- U.S. Federal Reserve Bank directors said last month a contracting housing sector posed a risk to the economy's expected moderate pace of growth.

The Fed on Tuesday released minutes of its three discount-rate meetings from July 9 through Aug. 6.

All 12 district banks voted by Aug. 2 to re-establish the existing, 6.25% rate for discounts and advances under the primary credit program.

"Directors generally expected the economy to continue to expand at a moderate pace, supported in part by robust global economic conditions," the minutes of an Aug. 6 discount rate meeting said. "They noted the U.S. housing market continued to contract and pose a downside risk to U.S. economic growth."

Several directors at the meeting reported "somewhat less accommodative financial conditions for some borrowers."

"However, the economy overall was viewed as relatively healthy," the minutes said. "Directors noted that the rate of inflation had continued to moderate but thought that its underlying trend remained unclear.

"In that regard, some directors pointed to tightness in labor markets. For now, directors preferred to maintain the current stance of monetary policy and to continue to evaluate the outlook for risks to both economic growth and inflation in light of incoming data," the minutes said.

"At today's meeting, no sentiment was expressed in favor of considering the primary credit rate before tomorrow's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, and the existing rate was maintained," the Aug. 6 meeting minutes said.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 2:00:54 PM

Last week the story I was sticking to was the SPX would find support at its August 6th lows and then take a run at the August 8th highs. This break of the August 24th swing high is a very good indication my story may just play out how I predicted. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 2:00:53 PM

GM August Inventories Down 34,000 Vehicles To About 945,000

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 1:59:59 PM

GM August Light Vehicle Sales 385,529 Vs 363,521, Up 6.1%
August Light Truck Sales 241,013 Vs 206,789, Up 16.5%
August Car Sales 144,516 Vs 156,723, Down 7.8%
August Truck Sales 243,652 Vs 212,053, Up 14.9%.

GM Cites "Brisk" Sales of Full-Size Pickups, Crossover SUVs for Increase.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 1:53:53 PM

US 6-month Bills: 4.380%; 91.01% At High

DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $17.00 billion in six-month bills at Tuesday's auction at a high rate of 4.380%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $52.56 billion and accepted $17.00 billion, including $1.65 billion of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 97.785667 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 4.554%.

The Treasury also sold $225.00 million of six-month bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 3.09, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 91.01%.

The median rate was 4.350%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.290%.

The Federal Reserve purchased $15.04 billion in bills for its own account in Monday's three- and six-month bill auctions. When the auction was announced, the Fed held $17.01 billion of maturing bills.

The bills awarded to the Federal Reserve are in addition to the public offering amount.

Accepted indirect bids for the six-month bill were 38.3% of the total competitive amount, up from 25.3% in last week's six-month bill auction.

The high rate was down from 4.590% at the previous six-month bill auction.

The high rate was the lowest since the rate of 3.950% at the six-month bill auction on Aug. 20.

The issue is dated Sept. 6 and matures on March 6, 2008.

The CUSIP number on the six-month bill is 912795D24.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 1:49:56 PM

13-week Yield ($IRX.X) now up 27.5 bp at 4.265% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 1:49:08 PM

US 3-Month Bills: 4.350%; 34.90% At High

DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $22.00 billion in three-month bills at Tuesday's auction at a high rate of 4.350%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $62.11 billion and accepted $22.00 billion, including $1.65 billion of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 98.900417 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 4.472%.

The Treasury also sold $110.00 million of bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.82, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 34.90%.

The median rate was 4.300%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.250%.

The Federal Reserve purchased $15.04 billion in bills for its own account in Monday's three- and six-month bill auctions. When the auction was announced, the Fed held $17.01 billion of maturing bills.

The bills awarded to the Federal Reserve are in addition to the public offering amount.

Accepted indirect bids for the three-month bill were 26.5% of the total competitive amount, up from 20.9% in last week's three-month bill auction.

The high rate was down from 4.600% at the previous three-month bill auction.

The high rate was the lowest since the rate of 2.850% at the three-month bill auction on Aug. 20.

The issue is dated Sept. 6 and matures on Dec. 6.

The CUSIP number on the three-month bill is 912795B59.

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 1:43:05 PM

And there goes the TRAN, not only failing to touch that short-term downside target but also reaching a new day's high. Sometimes either technical analysis fails to work or else you're reading it wrong. In this case, bulls certain don't look ready to give up right now.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 1:42:03 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 1:37:51 PM

Google (GOOG) $523.28 +1.55% ... well off its all-time high of $558.58.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 1:36:45 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) alert! 219.25 +5.30% ... challenges its all-time high of $219.25.

Keene Little : 9/4/2007 1:34:26 PM

SPX is working its way up towards the potential resistance area around 1489-1490. The pattern of today's rally is not giving me much in the way of clues as to whether or not it's near a high. There seems to be an underlying bid to the market (not so much for the DOW though) and I'm thinking today is just not the day to be looking for a short play. Continue to stay long as long as we don't get a lower low in the pullbacks.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 1:24:08 PM

The two most important internals are the AD volume and VIX and when they are in sync you have a go ahead to trade in the direction they indicate. Today they are telling you to buy the dips and so far that has been excellent advice.

The DAX and USDJPY are two markets (not internals) that can be used to confirm bullishness or bearishness. So far it is bullishness as far as the eye can see. Link

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 1:17:18 PM

Here is the daily chart of the Wilshire 5000 index, what we consider the entire market. It is breaking resistance and its next stop is the August 8th highs at 15100. Link

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 1:06:49 PM

Here is a higher highs confirming the higher low so the trend is now up and the next stop is 1500 resistance. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 1:02:07 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 12:59:34 PM

USD/yen at 116.16 as I type. It's been bunching up at the top of its overnight and early morning climb, in a vaguely triangular form. Nothing much to tell about next direction from this.

Keene Little : 9/4/2007 12:36:54 PM

When looking at some market breadth numbers we've seen some lopsided bullish days in the past two weeks and the way the market has steadily marched higher may have something to do with the massive amount of money injected into the system as shown by this calculated M3 chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 12:36:50 PM

The TRAN began climbing immediately after my 12:16:20 post detailing a potential short-term downside target. Isn't that the way it always goes? Currently, the TRAN is facing light short-term Keltner resistance as well as the resistance from the descending trendline on the descending price channel it formed today. It hasn't broken through, so the potential downside target is still maintained, but the probability of that downside target being hit isn't as strong as it looked earlier. As a reminder, we're watching the TRAN because it's sensitive to both fuel costs and the strength of the economy, and it sometimes leads the SPX, OEX and Dow. This morning, it wasn't confirming SPX strength on a short-term basis.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 12:19:26 PM

US To Sell $25.0 Billion 4-Week Bills Wednesday (Vs $30.0 Billion)

4-Week Auction To Pay Down $3.0 Billion On Federal Debt.

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 12:16:20 PM

The TRAN looks to me as if it's setting up a short-term downside target between 4868-4873. If it drops into that level, watch carefully for bounce potential or else a sign that a steeper drop is underway. It's been adhering fairly well to a five-minute Keltner chart, so here's a picture of what I'm seeing and why I say that it's setting up that potential short-term downside target: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 12:13:31 PM

13-week Yield ($IRX.X) surging 26 bp to 4.25%. Plunged as low as 2.40% on 8/20/07.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 12:12:18 PM

Concerns About Money-Market Funds Overblown

DJ- Market concerns are behind the flight to quality that has pushed assets in money-market funds to a record $2.72 trillion. But if you have been thinking that you might join in that journey and change your money-market fund to gain additional safety, think again.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 12:11:15 PM


DJ- A U.K. hedge fund backed by a beleaguered German bank and exposed to U.S. mortgages has shut its doors in a move that underscores the credit-market downturn's continuing effects on European investors and institutions.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 12:10:27 PM


DJ- Microsoft fails to win approval for its Office software file format to be considered an international standard, losing a closely watched vote that reflects the software giant's broader battles in Europe and around the world.

MSFT $28.91 +0.62% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 12:09:23 PM


DJ- Auto maker struggles to halt declining U.S. sales, but it has a bright spot in the three large crossover vehicles it launched in the past year, which are selling briskly and have a GM plant in Lansing, Mich., running at full capacity.

GM $31.08 +1.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 12:08:15 PM


DJ- Worldwide semiconductor sales increase to $20.58 billion in July on gains in microprocessors and flash-memory products used in items such as digital cameras.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 12:07:31 PM


DJ- September and the October-November period are expected to experience five named storms each. In September, the forecast calls for four of the five storms to become hurricanes and two to become major hurricanes, with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or more.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 12:06:39 PM


DJ- Mortgage lender's shares drop 18% after it announces another round of restructuring that includes more job cuts and tighter lending practices, while also canceling a planned $101.2 million sale of convertible preferred stock.

NFI $6.91 -18.61% ... (see 10:17:13 AM Watch List)

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 12:04:29 PM


DJ- Based on preliminary results of its Dutch auction tender offer, home improvement retailer expects to purchase about 289.6 million shares, or about 14.6% of the shares outstanding, at a price of $37 a share.

HD $36.60 -4.46% ...

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 12:02:54 PM

The USD/yen is at 116.21 as I type. It hasn't been able to break out above the descending trendline off the 8/23 early morning high, with that trendline at about 116.52, although this currency pair continues to challenge a resistance band that's been important. The RUT has always appeared to me to be the index most responsive to movements in this currency pair, so you'd like to see this currency pair lead or confirm any RUT breakout.

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 11:58:57 AM

The TRAN's downturn is now becoming more pronounced on the 5-minute Keltner chart. See my 11:24:22 post for the possible significance. There's nothing long-term to be gleaned here yet, but just a signal that the TRAN isn't enthusiastically confirming SPX strength. The Dow is not as strong as the SPX and OEX, either.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 11:54:55 AM

Correction alert! ... the CREE Sep $25 Put symbol is CQR-UE ... currently $0.65 x $0.75.

CREE $27.26

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 11:51:27 AM

Cree Inc. (CREE) $27.23 +2.36% Link ... Today's trade at $28.00 has shares of CREE giving a reversing higher double top buy signal after test of bullish support trend.

Shares were strong on Friday and then this morning (to $29.04) on rumors that General Electric (GE) $38.80 -0.15% may be set to acquire the company.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 11:46:48 AM

VXN.X 24.75 +0.89% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 11:53:45 AM

Swing trade sell NAKED puts alert! ... sell two (2) of the Cree Inc. CREE Sep $25 Puts (CQR-UE) at the bid of $0.65.

CREE $27.27 +2.52% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 11:35:14 AM

NHC: Hurricane Henriette Strengthening As It Approaches Baja

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 11:34:40 AM

NHC: Hurrican Felix Weakens to Category 3 Storm

Keene Little : 9/4/2007 11:29:16 AM

We're getting some bearish divergencs on the short term charts at this last high so be careful if you're chasing this higher.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 11:27:46 AM

S&P 500 (SPX.X) alert! 1,485.56 +0.78% ... retraces 61.8% of its 7/16/07 multi-year high (1,555.90) to recent 8/16/07 low (1,370.60). Also at an overlapping 38.2% retracement of 03/05/07 low CLOSE (1,373.97) to 7/19/07 high CLOSE (1,553.08). 50-day SMA just ahead at 1,487.63.

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 11:24:22 AM

The TRAN doesn't look quite as exuberant as some of the other indices this morning, at least when viewed on a five-minute Keltner chart. Most of the other indices I checked are bouncing handily off their 5-minute 9-ema's on five-minute closes, but the TRAN has now slipped below that average. That average now appears to be providing resistance, not support, on five-minute closes. This observation is just a little thing, and perhaps it even amounts to over analysis to mention it, but I'm looking for signs that indices will either handily burst through resistance or will turn down from it. The TRAN often leads the SPX, OEX and Dow, so that's why I'm watching it.

As I finished up this post, the TRAN had risen again to retest its 5-minute 9-ema. It's trying to regain that support, but the TRAN appears to be playing catch-up to the other indices, not leading them. I'd use this as I would some breadth measurement, as a sign to begin thinking through various what-if scenarios (What if markets roll over at resistance?) and deciding what your trading plan will be if that occurs rather than as any kind of definitive sign of anything about to happen.

Keene Little : 9/4/2007 11:09:13 AM

At 1485 SPX is currently struggling with its 50-dma and 62% retracement of the July-Aug decline.

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 11:08:23 AM

The USD/yen is now at 116.14, as I type, backing down from a day's high of 116.40. This was a test of Friday's 116.42 high while our cash market was open, but still well below Friday's pre-market 116.59 high. It's also below a descending trendline off the 8/23 overnight high of 117.09, with that descending trendline now at about 116.52 if I'm eyeballing it correctly.

What does this mean? It means that I don't see a confirmed breakout over resistance yet, but rather an echo of what we're seeing on equity markets such as the RUT: a testing of resistance.

Keene Little : 9/4/2007 11:07:34 AM

Looking at SPX, the move up from last Tuesday's low looks like an impulsive 5-wave move which could be into the 5th wave from Friday afternoon's low. If true then we'll be due a pullback soon if not the start of a stronger decline. Link

The bullish (green) wave count shows a pullback will be followed by a lot more rally (SPX upside target near 1533 over the next couple of weeks). The bearish (dark red) wave count calls the last week's rally as the end of an A-B-C move up from August 16th and following it will be a strong decline well below the August 16th low. A break below 1452 would be bearish.

There are some internal Fib projections for this rally near 1489-1490 and just a tad higher is the top of a parallel up-channel for price action since August 16th. Therefore a rally up to that area would be a good spot to watch for a short play.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 11:02:54 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 11:00:32 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

SMH leads strength with trade at WEEKLY R1. Dollar also strong.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 10:57:53 AM

The SPX is now making a higher high and the bulls have control. Link

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 10:46:44 AM

You don't have to know much about the nested Keltner charts I use to determine that the RUT is at a key level (45-ema, pink) on this daily Keltner chart, with even more important resistance (aqua-colored 120-ema that's the central basis line of the widest channel) just ahead near 806-807: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 10:45:18 AM

NASDAQ-100 ($NDX) 2,011.61 +1.15% Link ... 20-point box chart has NDX giving a reversing higher PnF buy signal at 1,980 on Thursday.

Dorsey/Wright's NASDAQ-100 Bullish % (BPNDX) at 60% and still "bear correction" status.

StockCharts.com's $BPNDX at 61% Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 10:40:14 AM

NASDAQ-100 (NDX.X) alert! 2011.84 +1.16% ... retraces 80.9% of its 7/19/07 multi-year high (2,060.29) to recent 8/16/07 low (1,805.66).

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 10:35:30 AM

AD line is now a healthy +750 and climbing.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 10:34:04 AM

Dateline WSJ - TOKYO -- Japanese government data released Friday showed consumer prices continued to fall slightly and industrial production decreased in July, but behind the weak numbers were some positive signs.

The decline in industrial output, for example, was mainly due to plant shutdowns after a major quake hit northern Japan in July. Production there has mostly resumed. And the data showed that output in industries not affected by the quake actually increased in July.

Overall, Japan's industrial output fell a seasonally adjusted 0.4% from the previous month after a 1.3% rise in June.

Meanwhile, the nationwide core consumer-price index fell 0.1% in July from a year earlier, but the core CPI for the Tokyo metropolitan area was flat in August. Because price trends in Japan's capital tend to lead moves in the rest of the nation, that could be a sign that consumer prices will head higher in months ahead

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 10:32:34 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace in five months in August, according to a survey released Tuesday by the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM manufacturing index fell to 52.9% in August from 53.8% in July.

Readings over 50% in the diffusion index indicate that more firms are growing than contracting. The ISM has been above 50% for seven months, following a steady decline in late 2005.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected the ISM to slide to 53.0% in August.

"The overall economy continues to grow at a significant rate," said Norbert Ore, head of the ISM's survey committee. The new orders and production indexes were encouraging for future growth, he said

Keene Little : 9/4/2007 10:31:16 AM

The techs are getting all the love again today. The other indices are essentially testing last week's highs but NDX continues to push higher. As I mentioned last night, I see upside potential for NDX up to around 2040 so until I see something bearish happen in that index I'd be looking at the long side of this one. And that would likely drag the others higher.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 10:17:13 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

August's Trade Blotter of CLOSED Trades at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 10:12:06 AM

TRIN is a bullish 0.72.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 10:11:36 AM

AD line as improved to +600.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 10:09:52 AM

The Wilshire 5000 is also testing its August 24th highs. Link

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 10:08:55 AM

The DOW's August 24th highs are sitting at 13380 and the DOW is only trading at 13367 so it needs to pull up its socks before the S&P can break its resistance.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 10:06:40 AM

SPX is pressing up against its August 24th highs at 1480. A close above this resistance is a big deal for the bulls of course the close is a long ways yet.

Jeff Bailey : 9/4/2007 10:03:16 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 10:01:27 AM

Here is a daily chart of the SPX and as you can see it needs to break its August 24th highs before it can retest its August 6th highs just like the DOW. Keep your eye on the Russell though because if it is able to close above its August 6th highs then I think the DOW and S&P should have no problem doing the same thing. Link

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 9:54:56 AM

VIX is trying to make a new daily low as the AD volume makes a new daily high but both do not have enough steam to quite make it. An AD line at -34 is an indication any direction will not have a lot of steam though.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 9:50:22 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their overnight ranges. Link

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 9:52:50 AM

Linda thank you so much for the heads up on the USDJPY currency pair for now though is working wonderfully.

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 9:46:38 AM

USD/yen now at 115.84 on my charts, moving up from the 10-sma, but now into the congestion zone that proved so sticky, for want of a better word, much of last week.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 9:46:27 AM

AD line is creeping up and is now at -108 but still neutral however the DAX and the USDJPY is telling me a different story.

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 9:44:53 AM

The Fed has just announced a repo in the amount of $5.0 billion, maturing Thursday, September 6. Since a $7.0 billion repo matures today, as indicated in my 9:35:22 post, that leaves a net draw of $2.0 billion unless the Fed takes further action.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 9:44:27 AM

I do show the USDJPY making a new daily high (using a 9:30 open) which supports the DAX to new daily highs (also using a 9:30 open).

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 9:42:44 AM

I show a current value of the USD/yen at 115.68, with this currency pair pulling back a bit after its repeated battering late last week at the resistance now from 116.12-116.50 on the daily chart. It's currently sitting right on the 10-sma on that daily chart, with that average having been support over the last few days of last week. No conclusion as yet.

Remember that my goal is to introduce some wariness about relying on this currency pair too much. It's been a helpful tool for a couple of years in predicting or corroborating equity movements, but other forces may begin to assert more importance. Perhaps ultimately, we'll use it only as we would other useful indicators such as RSI, CCI or breadth indicators. For now, I'm not certain that all worries about the yen carry trade unwinding have yet been erased, so I wouldn't suggest tossing over any need to monitor this currency pair.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 9:41:33 AM

AD line is a neutral -532 and AD volume is basically flat. No hints here as to who has the ball.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 9:36:33 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures traded flat early Tuesday, as the dollar rose against most other major currencies. Gold for December delivery rose 60 cents at $682.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"Gold markets remained relatively quiet but on the firm side as the abbreviated trading week commenced on Tuesday," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, in emailed comments. On Friday, gold rose $8 to close at $681.90 an ounce.

"Fundamentals appear fairly constructive at the moment, amid reports that second-quarter South African production declined 7.5% versus the same period in 2006," Nadler said.

"On the demand side, Indian buyers appear a bit more eager to snap up jewelry than they were in the first half of the year, although their appetite for gold might show signs of tempering should prices rise much beyond current levels."

Linda Piazza : 9/4/2007 9:35:22 AM

Today, a Fed repo of $7.00 billion made Thursday, August 23 matures. Any repo(s) made today will still result in a net draw unless totalling more than $7.00 billion. Going all the way back to early July, that's the only repo I can find that matures today, so I'm fairly confident of that number. No repos have yet been announced, but the announcement is typically not made for a few more minutes.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 9:33:35 AM

The DOW has to clear resistance at 13400 before it can tackle resistance at the August 6th swing high, 13700. If the Russell clears its August 6th resistance there is a very good chance the DOW will follow suit and break this resistance as well. Link

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 9:24:42 AM

Dateline WSJ - LA CEIBA, Honduras -- Hurricane Felix roared ashore early Tuesday as a fearsome Category 5 storm -- the first time in recorded history that two top-scale storms have come ashore in the same season. The storm hit near the swampy Nicaragua-Honduras border, home to thousands of stranded Miskito Indians dependent on canoes to make their way to safety.

Twenty fishermen were missing, and communication to the area was cut off.

Meanwhile, off Mexico's Pacific coast, Tropical Storm Henriette strengthened into a hurricane with 75 mph winds and the U.S. National Hurricane Center said it was churning toward the upscale resort of Cabo San Lucas, popular with Hollywood stars and sea fishing enthusiasts.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 9:24:07 AM

The Russell 2000 cash index has found resistance at 800-805 zone but I suspect it will break this resistance on its next try and will then use this zone as support to springboard itself to retest yearly highs later this year. Link

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 9:21:25 AM

Even though Felix makes landfall as a Category 5 hurricane crude is falling and just about to test overnight lows. This is the first time in recorded history that two top-scale storms have some ashore in the same season.

US$ is gaining speed upward but Gold is not falling - yet. I suspect it will.

The DAX took the 4:00EST dip as well as the American index futures and had recovered just like its American counterparts as well. Link

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 9:12:31 AM

Here is how the futures markets traded overnight including the trading range from Monday. You did know the futures markets trade when we have a holiday but Europe does not?

As you can see the markets had a dip around 4:00EST but have recovered and seem to be trying to retest the overnight highs. Link

Keene Little : 9/4/2007 9:04:21 AM

There was a nice recovery out of a deeper hole in overnight trading but equity futures look like they'll give us a slight negative opening. It's all in the noise level so we'll have to see what sets up this morning. Everyone is back from vacation so volume should at least be stronger.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 9:04:20 AM

Two economic reports for today:

10:00a.m. July Construction Spending. Previous: -0.3%.

10:00a.m. August ISM Manufacturing Business Index. Previous: 53.8.

Jane Fox : 9/4/2007 9:02:59 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Investors will pore over the economic data in the coming week, looking for reasons the Federal Reserve should or shouldn't cut interest rates. But the data will probably be irrelevant to the decision.

It's likely that the Fed will make its move, whatever it is, regardless of how strong hiring was in August, or how exuberant manufacturing purchasing managers were about their order books.

It's likely that the Fed will cut rates on Sept. 18, economists say.

"If you take a step back and look at the data, the economy doesn't look bad," said Mark Vitner, an economist for Wachovia. For all the well-known problems in housing, the economy grew at a robust 4% pace in the second quarter. Exports are growing, consumer spending is strong, and job growth has been OK, if not stellar.

But the Fed can't worry too much about the economy of today or even of tomorrow. Because it takes monetary policy a long time to work, Fed actions taken on Sept. 18 won't really impact the economy until next year, Vitner noted. At this point, the Fed has to be more worried about the August 2008 job report than the August 2007 jobs report.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in his Jackson Hole speech that, in the current environment, "economic data bearing on past months or quarters may be less useful than usual for our forecasts of economic activity and inflation."

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