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OI Technical Staff : 9/21/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 9:04:39 PM

Educational: ... Often-times you'll read that stock trading/investing is similar to sports.

BIG 3-game series for my FAVORITE team the Colorado Rockies. Link Can they get into the playoffs by getting the Wild Card seat?

They're 4.5 games back after sweeping the Dodgers in a 4-game series, and now it's the San Diego Padres.

It is the last time these two division rivals will meet during the regular season, and a 3-game series at San Diego begins tonight.

With only 9 games left in the season for the Rockies, it is like an option expiration just two weeks ahead! For many investors/traders there's just 10-days left in the quarter!

I think the Rocks need to take at least 2 of the 3 games against the Padres. That would close the gap (Games Behind "GB") and have the Rocks moving to within 2.5 games.

After those 3 games, the Rocks head north for a 3-game series against the Dodgers! What are the chances of another Rockies sweep?

The final three games of the season are going to be tough when the division leading Arizona Diamondbacks 0.562 come to town. The D-Backs are currently 1-game over 0.500 on the road, while the Rocks hold a 48-30 record at home.

Do you see the "key" for the Rockies to get the Wild Card spot?

Really, they're in control of their own destiny, but they'll need some help.

They've GOT to win at least 2 if not all 3 games against the Padres. After that, it becomes a "just win baby" situation, and hope the Padres and the Philly's stumble.

Rocks' manager Clint Hurdle will have to utilize every tool at his disposal in what has been a patchwork season with the pitching staff.

The most recent blow was R/H Pitcher Aaron Cook being lost to the 60-day disabled list. The good news is that All-star L/H closer Brian Fuentes has worked his way back as a middle/late-reliever, after blowing four straight saves during a 1-9 Rockies road trip, then suffering a lat strain that cost him more than a month.

In a way, the Stock Market at this point looks a bit like the Rockies.

Aaron Cook's loss would be equivalent to how the Transports are trading. Yep, oil's rise isn't helping this group at all.

But Fuentes' return with oppenents hitting just .167 in 15 2/3 innings. That's equivalent to having the Financials like the BIX/BKX and XBD.X showing some sign of life again.

Financials are the BIGGEST weightings in both the SPX and RUT.X.

For the most part, the Rocks' bats have been showing some good consistency, and there's some power. Holliday, "Tulo" and Helton have been going yard of late and for any team, that's like having BIG Tech heavyweights with high beta on the move.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 7:43:56 PM

"Best" Email Question ... The day goes by fast, and while I had hoped to teach you how to make money regardless of how good/bad everyone thinks things are, I'm fooling myself if I thought I could do it in a day.

However, read my postings from today if you'd like, and I will continue to show you, and discuss how I have learned, and taught others to make money trading the markets on a consistent basis.

Profits/losses are realized only by initiating a trade, then closing the trade.

The "secret" to trading/investing PROFITABLY is ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT! I'll explain, show you what I'm talking about with my trade blotter of MM Profiles.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 6:57:25 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 6:24:35 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/21/2007 4:23:40 PM

Monday's Economic Reports are: 10:30a.m. Sep Dallas Fed Mfg Production Index. Previous: 21.6.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 4:22:54 PM

Ooooooeeee! Might have saved some positions toward the close.

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 4:16:45 PM

Futures giving it up some as they head into the close. Maybe a little fear or hedging, or just final opex related. Too hard to tell or read much into it. We'll see what it looks like Monday (Sunday night). I hope everyone has a great weekend.

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 4:11:44 PM

The SPX pattern at the end of the day supports a minor drop on Monday to finish a 3-wave pullback from today's high which should be a good opportunity to get long for perhaps a 1 to 2-day trade. Two equal legs down from today's high is at 1522.68 which puts it right between a 50% and 62% retracement of the rally off yesterday's low, and another test of the mid line of its parallel up-channel. That's where we'll be looking to get long. But any drop lower than 1522, and especially below 1516, would have me turning much more bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 4:14:40 PM

So far this month, the SPX is up 3.5%. For the quarter it is up 1.5%.

The dollar's down 2.8% for the month and 4.1% for the quarter.

Need to show at least +6.3% for the month (not factoring in inflation/deflation) in my opinion. Need +5.6% for the quarter. I know I've got that covered.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 4:04:24 PM

We'll see ... I'll update my trade blotter this weekend, see how my corner is looking for the month and the quarter.

If I haven't been able to make up for the BIDU "debacle" can I count on you?

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 4:01:37 PM

Great idea Jeff! We've got this market cornered now.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 4:00:00 PM

IWM $81.00 +0.25% Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 3:57:51 PM

Good idea! I'm going to put on the blinders and recommend everyong sell everything (said with tongue firmly planted in cheek) with a stop just above the high.


Keene Little : 9/21/2007 4:02:09 PM

Jeff, I'm going to take some happy pills over the weekend put on my rose-colored glasses and recommend everyone buy everything (said with tongue firmly planted in cheek). I am of course kidding so please don't take me seriously on that.

I think I'll start mine out with "As good as everyone says things are...". That way we'll offer balanced reporting to our readers (wink).

Jane Fox : 9/21/2007 3:53:10 PM

If you like to play with fire you could try to short Gold here for the ride down to $700. I never play with fire because I have been burned too many time.s Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 3:51:20 PM

As bad as everyone says things are in the housing sector ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 3:47:25 PM

I'm going to start mine out with ... "As bad as everyone says things are ...

Monday evening, October 1st.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 3:44:47 PM

Keene! How are you going to start out your Quarterly Report?

As good/bad as everyone says things are ...

Jane Fox : 9/21/2007 3:43:03 PM

Since Sept 5th the US$ has taken a drubbing which has been very good for Gold.

The other thing that has been very good for Gold is the rally in crude. Gold needs the $ down and Crude up and it was has been the perfect storm for Gold the last week. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 3:42:45 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 3:38:28 PM

If we now get a 2nd leg down for the pullback from the mid-day high that should be the one that sets up the long play. That will likely be the setup for an early Monday trade.

Jane Fox : 9/21/2007 3:34:00 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures closed slightly lower Friday, taking a break from a record run that began early last week, but the new benchmark contract gained almost 5% for the week as energy facilities in the Gulf of Mexico prepared for a storm.

A weather forecaster at AccuWeather.com downplayed any threat to oil and natural-gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, but energy producers in the region prepared for the worst.

About 62.7% of the oil production in the Gulf has been shut-in, the U.S. Minerals Management Service reported Friday. It also said that about 30.8% of natural-gas production in the region has been shut down.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 3:32:46 PM

Google (GOOG) $560.53 +1.39% ... that's a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 3:31:25 PM

"Best Email Question ... Money managers. Are you going to show them how smart you've been this quarter and "overweight" BIG tech?

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 3:16:45 PM

NDX is quite a bit stronger this afternoon but I'm not so sure I'd trust a new high in that one yet. The others don't support that move yet.

Linda Piazza : 9/21/2007 3:12:40 PM

I'm dropping in to say I'll likely be away from the Monitor Monday and Tuesday. I don't know for sure yet, but Texas Children's is scrambling to get a surgery and another procedure that requires anesthesia all scheduled for my granddaughter on Monday. If they can pull it together, I'll be in Houston early next week. I don't know what kind of computer access I'll have, if any.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 3:13:28 PM

"Best" Email Question ... To all of our money managers out there. Today is Q3 expiration, but there's still one week left for the third quarter.

What are you going to show your clients in the quarterly report?

As bad as things are, what did you do for them this quarter?

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 3:03:06 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 2:59:38 PM

"Best" Email Question ... Boeing (BA) Link

Perhaps the global economy is strong, and the weaker dollar makes BA's airplane "less expensive" than Air Bus'

But I ask BOTH questions. If everything is as bad ... If everything is as good ....

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 2:46:23 PM

It looks like a nice impulsive decline in the DOW so a bounce back up to correct it and then another leg down should follow that. If you shorted today's high now's a good time to take some money off the table. This should be just a scalp trade while we wait to test the long side.

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 2:36:52 PM

In my last post I should have stated buy a break above today's high since a pullback here followed by a continuation higher should be proof that we're into the 5th wave of the move up from Sept 10th. The DOW has already pressed higher than Wednesday's high.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 2:33:16 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $138.33 +0.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 2:32:36 PM

Boeing (BA) $103.18 +1.90% ... finds a bid. #2 weighted Dow Component. Gave a reversing higher PnF "buy signal" at $99 on Wednesday.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 2:27:14 PM

"Best" Email Question

In my market monitor profiles, I show a bearish position for SLM Corp. (SLM) $48.32 +0.16% ... I have been contemplating if I should close the position out, as there are differing opinions from analysts that the "deal gets done," based on the recent legislation.

Based on STU's $190 trade, it swings me to the "hold the position" as perhaps, the recent legislation is viewed by market participants as a negative.

Note: Is this type of thought process, based on technicals, any different than trying to answer the question(s) ... If things are as good/bad as everyone says, then ....

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 2:20:34 PM

Student Loan (STU) alert! $190.00 -2.02% ... Trade here does give a double bottom sell signal.

No "deal in the works" that I know of. I have noted recent legislation news.

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 2:15:55 PM

This keeps it a little simpler, from an EW perspective, now--short a break below yesterday's low and buy a break above Wedesday's high. Those are key levels for the market right now.

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 2:12:36 PM

Now that we've rallied off yesterday's low it's very important for the bulls not to see those lows violated. Today's bounce is to a lower high than Wednesday's high so a turn back down to a lower low would make the wave count look more like the NDX wave count that I showed last night and updated here: Link , which calls Wednesday's high THE high for the correction to the July-August decline. The other indices would then likely be in the same wave count. Otherwise a pullback here followed by another rally above today's high would have us in the wave count as I've shown for SPX (and the DOW and RUT): Link

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 2:03:20 PM

Getting a firmer pullback now. It's not much but stops on a short should be brought down to just above the bounce to the 1:40 high. Slap on a Fib retracement of the rally from yesterday afternoon to today's high and that gives us a downside target zone to watch for support (figure 38%-62%). For example, for SPX that gives us 1522-1525 for a potential support zone.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 1:57:25 PM

GLD $72.45 -0.37% ...

GG $30.48 +0.49% ... The dividend? Op-EX at $30.00 strike? The dollar? Treasury Yield?

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 1:43:25 PM

"Best" Email Question

Olin Corp. (OLN) $21.99 +1.71% ... nice move today and closing in on recent 52-week high.

OLN is a component of the S&P 400 Midcap Index. Link
OLN is listed on the NYSE
OLN currently pays a dividend of $0.80 annual.
Dividend is paid in US$.

Technical: If things are as good/bad as everyone says, then what does the MARKET think of it?

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 1:32:27 PM

"Best" Email Question ... Given that things are as good/bad as everyone is saying, and based on what the Treasury Yield and Dollar is doing, is a company's, or Index Tracker's dividend yield a consideration as to how things are acting?

If a market participant had to own a stock/security during an economic slowdown/recession, would its dividend yield be of consideration?

What about shorting?

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 1:27:52 PM

Trivia Question! ... What pays the lowest dividend/share?


Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 1:27:31 PM

Trivia Question! ... What pays the highest dividend/share?


Keene Little : 9/21/2007 1:19:22 PM

NDX and RUT are the first to give us sell signals. Look to short any bounces against today's highs for now (will lower them later).

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 1:19:03 PM

01:15 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 1:15:09 PM

Did you know that there are actually investors and traders out there that will buy a stock for its dividend?

Warren Buffett is one "top of mind" investor that considers a stock's payment of dividend as a criteria for selection.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 1:12:40 PM

"Best" Email Question ... Yes Keene. Traders that are short, or long the SPY will know that a dividend is due.

One consideration of (risk/reward) when buying, or selling short a security is to know what the additional "benefit," or "consequence" is.

When short a security (depending on date you short) you may owe ALL, or PART of the dividend.

Remember, when you SHORT a security, you are actually borrowing it from another party, you sell it, but at some point, you will BUY it back and return it plus any dividend accrued during the time you borrowed it.

SPY Product Specification Link

Jane Fox : 9/21/2007 12:57:14 PM

Here are your overnight charts. As you can see the DOW and NDX are trading above their respective overnight ranges but the Russell and S&P are still within their overnight range. Link

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 12:48:44 PM

I noticed today that the SPY is trading below the SPX. Could you discuss this? Thanks

I haven't watched the relationship between the two so I'm not sure why it hasn't climbed as much as SPX today, other than the fact that it too might be opex related. In fact today's bounce in SPY looks rather anemic. The settlement price for SPX (SET.X) today is 1533.38 for +7.47 over yesterday's settlement price (higher than the 1525 I was guessing we'd see). That pop higher has not been matched by SPY and maybe that's the difference today.

Jeff, I know you watch SPY--any guesses on this? Thanks.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 12:50:24 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

"Best" Email Question ... One way to profit in a market is to MEASURE RISK as it relates to "if the trade does not go my way, or the MARKET proves me wrong," then what's my RISK?

If things are as good/bad as everyone says, what happens to my account?

I.E. The dollar is rising/tanking, so it means this/that. The bond yield is rising/falling so it means this/that.
Oil is rising/falling so it means this/that.
Gold is rising/falling so it means this/that.
Inflation is rising/falling so it means this that.

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 12:38:24 PM

The risk of course on opex Friday is that we could get price spikes that are strictly expiration related (or rolling into the next month) and have not much more meaning than that. In other words, and as Linda has pointed out often, technical indicators may not work as well on the very short term charts. This latest spike up looks like it might fall into this category. A drop below the lows at 12:25 would now be a sell signal.

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 12:33:32 PM

Pushing higher again, except for NDX and RUT but they could be right behind. Will watch to see what the next high looks like.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 12:19:17 PM

SPY Option Montage (update) ... OI as of yesterday's close Link

09/17/07's @ 02:14:34 PM EDT when VIX was 26.64 Link

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 12:05:23 PM

This poke higher is still showing negative divergences and could be the last one. I'm trying a small short position against today's high.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 12:02:39 PM

On behalf of the great city of Denver, CO, welcome CNBC. "A Mile High Above the Rest!" ;)

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 11:58:55 AM

Birds of a feather ....

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 11:58:45 AM

CNOOC (CEO) $154.27 +3.92% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 11:56:01 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $167.50 +5.77% ... another notable 52-weeker. See 09/12/07 MM. Link


Keene Little : 9/21/2007 11:51:14 AM

Watch NDX 2055 for a potential high for today.

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 11:42:11 AM

As a reminder, using SPX, the rally leg up to 1548 and possibly as high as 1567, is the reason I want to get long for what should be the last leg up for the Aug-Sept rally: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 11:41:16 AM

Baker Hughes (BHI) $90.65 +1.79% ... notable new 52-weeker at the big board.

Jane Fox : 9/21/2007 11:37:36 AM

VIX is making new daily lows telling me the S&P futures will be making new daily highs real soon. Link

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 11:36:27 AM

If at any time now price drops back down below this morning's pullback then it will mean the 1st leg up from yesterday afternoon is complete. Unless I can catch the top I won't be interested in chasing it lower since there may not be much potential gain. The better trade would be a long play from a deeper pullback probably later today or perhaps Monday.

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 11:32:22 AM

DOW 13860 is the projection for its 5th wave so again just a minor new high.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 11:32:20 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: A 5-day NH/NL closing measure of 58% or greater is needed for NASDAQ 5-day NH/NL ratio to give a "second" buy signal. The first "buy signal" or sign that bullish leadership was returning to 4 and 5-lettered stock symbols came on 8/23/07.

Jane Fox : 9/21/2007 11:31:35 AM

Internals are all in sync now and it is safe to dip your toe in the water again.

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 11:31:26 AM

It's taking a long time but I'm still waiting for the push to a new high today to complete a 5-wave move up from yesterday afternoon's low. It looks like it may have started from the pullback near 10:30. Upside projections for the 5th wave are not much higher than the first high this morning for SPX--just shy of 1530 so watch for failure around that level. So far it's looking like we'll have the requisite bearish divergence against this morning's first high.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 11:26:55 AM

Thank you Keene. I was reviewing that period(s) commentary yesterday when looking at the Amex Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) to see what may have been taking place that had such a sharp reversal taking place. I asked myself "why" did it do what it did. I asked myself "should I be doing something with my market monitor profiles?

As far as "Europe" is concerned, there is different opinions on that isn't there?

I.E. MSFT decision? Good for consumer/competition? Or protectionism of corporate interests.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 11:02:31 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 11:00:00 AM

"Best" Email Question (#1) ... Go back to the 9/13/07 01:55:14 MM and analyze what you OBSERVED for the Educational Contest Link

Remember! I wanted you to either be long Call A and long Put B, or long Call B and long Put A.

Of you're trading/managing a retirement account and can not trade options, then you can still buy long securities today (one of ProShares Short Funds) that see INVERSE price performance to the direction of a stock index.

Still, the TECHNIQUE of analysis, and MANAGEMENT of the position(s) is roughly the same.

After you analyzed both of those charts, I had you pick one of the positions on 09/13/2007 02:50:07 PM Link

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 10:51:41 AM

Jeff, re: your referral to my 5/11/06 Wrap, the actual quote should be "Cheerleading Network of Buffoons and Clowns" as I refer to the people who work for CNBC. If we could get even half the more accurate reporting that CNBC Europe provides it would be an improvement over CNBC U.S. which seems to cater more to corporate interests.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 10:39:27 AM

DJ US Home Construction (DJUSHB) 381.41 -0.82% ... (not -6.32%) per 10:00 Market Watch.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 10:40:17 AM

"BEST" Email Question/Comment: ... Jessica maybe you can give the people that write the market monitor this info and see what they say:

The fed began cutting the rates about 2000/2001 and the market actually rallied 10%.

I was short everything and watched while my heart stopped. THEN the market tanked just when i began covering.

I was short some but closed others. I could not believe it rallied.

Now we have people talking about the market going higher and going long but it does not make sense. The dollar is weak, commodities are in "rally mode" (gold, oil...) and people have been purchasing treasuries (TNX yld down about 1%). This looks BEARISH to me... now throw in the weakness in the TRAN, accelerating bankruptcies and record foreclosures and it looks like a big setup to the downside....

Does anyone see that????????????????

Jeff's "BEST" Reply:

Yes, but no! In addition to my CURRENT OPEN MM Profiles, I'll attempt to answer this traders question today. I will make several responses in today's MM, and I'll bold text each response with "Best" Email Question. But before I begin, I want everyone to know, that at some point in time, I/YOU and other "Buffoons and Clowns" (see 5/11/2006 Market Wrap) may be wrong on something.

However, if you'll stick with me, I'll tell you HOW to MAKE MONEY (I show you how here in the MM with my trade profiles) and educational techniques.

Are you ready?

Are you serious about this?

OK ... then let's get started.....

Jane Fox : 9/21/2007 10:33:08 AM

With the AD line still over +1000 I would not try a short for sure but with the internals so mixed I would not try a long either.

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 10:24:11 AM

I've talked about the lack of market breadth during the climb up off the August low and had mentioned it again in last night's Wrap. I didn't show the NYSE advancing-declining volume chart but this shows vividly how the a-d volume has been dropping off as the NYSE makes new highs in its bounce. This helps confirm that the bounce is a correction instead of the start of a new bull leg up. Link

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 10:06:53 AM

The little sideways consolidation near today's high should lead to another push higher. At that point we'd have a small 5-wave move up from yesterday afternoon's low and it would be followed by a deeper pullback to correct the jump up from that low. That will then make for a good long trade setup. So a scalp short from the next high and then a swing trade long from the following pullback. I'll call out the trade setups as I see them.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 10:03:41 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/21/2007 10:00:55 AM

Here is a daily chart of the SPX. I was thinking a retracement to about 1500 was probably the most likely scenario and IMHO the most bullish. Today's action so far does not seem to agree with me. Link

Jane Fox : 9/21/2007 9:52:30 AM

VIX spikes to new daily highs suggesting the S&P futures will make new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 9/21/2007 9:50:53 AM

Day/Swing trade bullish target alert! ... Selling the 1/4 Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) at target of $3.80 +3.82% ...

Jane Fox : 9/21/2007 9:45:21 AM

Both the AD ratio (volume) and USDJPY are making new daily lows and the VIX is testing daily highs. Not a time to be long.

Jane Fox : 9/21/2007 9:43:27 AM

Interestingly the AD line is making new daily highs but the ratio is not - it is testing daily lows. USDJPY is also testing daily lows (based on a 9:30 open) so all is not OK with the bullish picture.

Jane Fox : 9/21/2007 9:37:03 AM

AD line is a healthy +1401

Jane Fox : 9/21/2007 9:31:27 AM

Gold looks like it is ready to take a little bit of a breather and should retrace to at least the 50% fib level which is back to about $700/oz. This does seem like a longs ways off if you look at the moves Gold has taken in the past you will see it is not out of the ordinary for this market to take 50% retracements of prior rallies. Link

Keene Little : 9/21/2007 9:28:11 AM

Equity futures had a nice steady gain the whole overnight session and we will get a big gap up this morning. Where we're located in the wave pattern this one might be the exhaustion gap. It doesn't mean we'll close it right away but this is the leg up where I'll be watching it carefully for signs of topping so that we can try an actual position trade (what's that you say?) on the short side.

The initial upside price target for SPX is 1548 so about 30 points above yesterday's close. Therefore that makes for a good trade on the long side. Any pullback that retests the downtrend lines from Wednesday that holds will be a buying opportunity.

Jane Fox : 9/21/2007 9:07:55 AM

Bullishness is breaking out all over. The only market to not break its previous day high is the Russell 2000 futures. Link

Jane Fox : 9/21/2007 8:59:44 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures edged higher Friday, after hitting a new 27-year high in electronic trading, with traders likely to lock in some gains after the metal's strong gains in the last few days.

Gold for December delivery rose $1.70 at $741.60 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In electronic trading, gold prices rose to a new 27-year high of $747.10.

"Gold may succumb to profit-taking in the coming days as we are slightly overbought in the short term," said Mark O'Byrne, director at Gold and Silver Investments Ltd., in a research note. "While consolidation is likely we believe gold will again reach $800 plus prices by year end."

Gold prices will continue to draw support from record low dollar prices, record high oil prices and increasing concern about the health of the world's largest economy, O'Byrne said.

Linda Piazza : 9/21/2007 8:10:32 AM

I will be taking a vacation day today. Our family is dealing with figuring out scheduling for a new round of tests and surgeries for my granddaughter and my attention is too fractured to be of much benefit to subscribers.

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