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Keene Little : 9/25/2007 11:46:20 PM

I show a little more upside potential for the indices other than the NDX and either those projections are wrong or else we could see some rotation into the blue chips as the techs turn around and start to sell off sooner. That's just speculation right now but I continue to think we could see SPX make it higher (even though I'm not sure why) with upside targets layered from 1550 all the way up to 1600 by October. It takes a break below 1490 to say otherwise. Link

If the DOW tips over tomorrow and makes a minor new low then I see the possibility for a high already in (dark red wave count) otherwise it too could give us a nice rally back above 14K. Link

And the RUT could push back up to the 830 area before topping out. It takes a drop back below 760 to tell me the top is in. Link

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 11:33:33 PM

NDX could be a good index to watch since it might give us some early clues about potential topping. The following is an end-of-day observation about the NDX:

While the NDX has pushed higher than its July high, the oscillators haven't kept up so it's showing bearish divergence so far at the new high. Today it hit a Fib projection at 2076 for the move up from Sept 10th so it's possible we're seeing the high for NDX being put in right now: Link But it would look a little better if it pushed up to just above 2080 before topping out.

The daily chart shows a Fib projection at 2083 (where the 2nd leg up in the bounce from the August low equals 62% of the 1st leg up) which happens to match the price depiction to an upper trend line shown on the 60-min chart. A little higher near 2100 is the top of its parallel up-channel. I think we're getting close to an important high (either that or a massive breakout and I'm having trouble believing in that scenario). Link

The NDX has been outperforming the COMP ever since the July 2006 low and that's been a good thing in some respects. You want to see the generals out there leading the troops. But if and when the generals tuck tail and run then we will probably see the COMP fall right in behind. So it'll be important to now start watching the NDX vs. the COMP relative strength chart as shown here: Link

Remember, the RS chart simply shows who's outperforming who. Both could be heading down but if the COMP is selling off faster than the NDX then this chart would continue to show a higher move for the RS line. The current move up is poking above the trend line along the highs since July 2006 but notice the bearish divergence against the current high.

This tells us the generals are getting tired and the next likely move will be down. In my opinion that will be a bearish signal for the market even if it heads slightly higher first. At that point I would become more confident in finding a market top based on the EW count, but not yet.

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 11:22:14 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 9/25/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 5:16:38 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Initiated a stop for the SLM-VI at $47.50 in the underlying shares of SLM.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 5:09:15 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 5:08:28 PM

The NDX has been outperforming the COMP ever since the July 2006 low and that's been a good thing in some respects. You want to see the generals out there leading the troops. But if and when the generals tuck tail and run then it will be a heads up that they're letting the troops out front to take the bullet for God and country. So it'll be important to now start watching the NDX vs. the COMP relative strength chart as shown here: Link

Remember, the RS chart simply shows who's outperforming who. Both could be heading down but if the COMP is selling off faster than the NDX then this chart would continue to show a higher move for the RS line. The current move up is poking above the trend line along the highs since July 2006 but notice the bearish divergence against the current high.

This tells us the generals are getting tired and the next likely move will be down. In my opinion that will be a bearish signal for the market even if stocks head slightly higher. At that point I would become more confident in finding a market top based on the EW count, but not yet.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 5:00:01 PM

Could be "why" SLM was weak. Long-term bull simply saying "not sure if buy-out comes to fruition," unload it and let's move on to CME!

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 4:57:26 PM

Just thinking ... End of Quarter is Friday. Today's # of NL could well be "get the losers out" with trade-date + 3 days being Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 4:50:31 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 4:35:29 PM

Economic reports tomorrow include

8:30a.m. August Durable Goods Orders. Expected: -3.0%. Previous: +6.0%.

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 4:33:32 PM

While the NDX has pushed higher than its July high, the oscillators haven't kept up so it's showing bearish divergence so far at the new high. Today it hit a Fib projection at 2076 for the move up from Sept 10th so it's possible we're seeing the high for NDX being put in right now: Link But it would look a little better if it pushed up to just above 2080 before topping out.

The daily chart shows a Fib projection at 2083 (where the 2nd leg up in the bounce from the August low equals 62% of the 1st leg up) which happens to match the price projection shown on the 60-min chart. A little higher near 2100 is the top of its parallel up-channel. I think we're getting close to an important high. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 4:28:56 PM

BOC's Dodge: To Assess Cause Of C$ Gains, Impact On Economy

DJ- Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge ackknowledged Tuesday the Canadian dollar has moved far above the Bank's forecast range and it has to analyze the reasons for the sharp gains and its impact on aggregate demand and supply in the economy. The Canadian dollar reached parity with the U.S. unit for the first time in nearly 31 years Thursday and has hit that level several times since. The Bank of Canada's July Monetary Policy Report update envisaged the Canadian dollar trading in the 93-95.5 U.S. cent range. "In recent days, the Canadian dollar has moved sharply above the trading range assumed in the July (report), and we need to look at the causes of this strengthening, should it persist," Dodge said in a prepared speech that he will deliver shortly to the Vancouver Board of Trade. "And, as always, we need to assess the effect of movements in the exchange rate on the balance of aggregate demand and supply in the Canadian economy." "Gauging the effects of the financial market turbulence on credit conditions, and the implications for the Canadian economy, will be one of the Bank's most pressing tasks over the coming months," Dodge said. The text of his speech was released early under embargo to reporters in Ottawa. Web site: Link Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said central bankers "may not have fully appreciated" the extent to which increased securitization had eased credit conditions previously. "Any given policy rate would thus be less restrictive than was earlier judged, implying that interest rates globally might have been lower than would have been optimal," he said. Dodge said securitization will likely be reduced in the wake of the credit crunch. All else being equal, "in Canada, this will lead to a higher cost of credit relative to the overnight interest rate than was the case prior to this summer," he said. Dodge said it will take some time for "definitive answers" on how this will affect monetary policy in the future. The Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight lending rate steady at 4.50% Sept. 5, saying the level was "appropriate" as the financial market turmoil had tightened credit conditions, which would temper domestic demand. Governor David Dodge said Canada's overnight market is "well on its way back to normal operations" after rates spiked last month during the turmoil. But he said he was surprised spreads between bank-sponsored asset-backed commercial paper and Treasury bills "have not narrowed further and more quickly, given the strong balance sheet of Canadian banks." The central bank had injected liquidity into the market and temporarily expanded the collateral it would accept for the additional funds to bring down the overnight rate. The latter measure has since been removed. Dodge said many term money market spreads remain "abnormally wide." But the number of transactions are increasing and spreads are starting to narrow. "In these circumstances, there does not appear to be anything the Bank of Canada could usefully do to improve the functioning of this market," he said. Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said the re-pricing of credit risk is an ongoing process and described the market turmoil as a "bump in the road". "Unfortunately, that bump means that it may take a while to achieve an appropriate pricing of risk," he said. He reiterated that lack of transparency was a key factor behind the market turmoil. He said credit rating agencies should be clear their ratings for highly structured products shouldn't be used with the same degree of certainty as for conventional, single-name issuer debt. Dodge said there may be a need to have the "right incentives" for loan originators to ensure that credit quality is maintained and credit is appropriately priced. "It may be that natural market forces will go a long way towards rebalancing incentives, but there may also be an active role for policy-makers in this regard," he said. The Basel-based Bank for International Settlements may also need to "revisit" capital requirements for banks, Dodge said. "If banks are moving securitized loans off their balance sheets, but still providing liquidity guarantees for these securities, how much capital should they be required to set aside?" Dodge said.

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 4:14:04 PM

The choppy mess we've been in since last week's high keeps me thinking we're going to get another leg higher. What I don't know is whether or not we'll see SPX and the DOW chop lower before the next rally leg. This SPX 60-min chart shows both scenarios. Price will have to lead the way before we get some clarity. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 4:08:34 PM

Swing trade put adjust/raise target alert! ... for the one (1) SLM Corp. SLM Oct. $45 Put (SLM-VI) to $39 in the underlying ($~6.00 in the option).

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 4:02:00 PM

ICE goes out, or "in" at $150.24 ... IHH-JJ finish $7.80 x $8.00.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 3:59:55 PM

ICE $150.25 ... one minute

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 3:57:59 PM

Look at how the AD volume and the AD volume ratio have diverged today. This has helped a great deal to keep it choppy yet bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 3:56:42 PM

The NDX is off in its own little world the last few days. Link

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 3:55:46 PM

The Russell 2000 has found support at its 50EMA/200EMA confluence. Link

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 3:55:40 PM

All this choppy price action continues to make it difficult figuring out the next direction but this DOW 60-min chart shows two leading contender ideas--either we've already topped out or we've still got the potential for a rally above 14K. A break above 13890 would be bullish whereas a break below 13700 would be potentially bearish (even though it could bounce back up to 13800 before finally tipping back over). Link

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 3:54:51 PM

The DOW supports the notion the SPX has found support at the August 8th swing high because it has as well. Link

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 3:53:28 PM

It looks like the SPX has found support at approximately the 1500 or the August 8th swing high at 1503. I suspect tomorrow will be a bullish day. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 3:45:46 PM

BIDU $299.29 -1.35% ... getting close to its BVC of $314.

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 3:45:36 PM

Even though the techs have been stronger, today's high, if it doesn't hold, will be accompanied by a bearish divergence against yesterday's high. This in combination with the weak showing by the DOW and SPX makes it look bearish from here. But heading out flat for the day (except for the gains in the techs) looks to be what we can expect.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 3:44:57 PM

CHA's bullish vertical count "only" to $74.00.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 3:43:36 PM

Good gravy ... China Telecom (CHA) $66.60 +7.67% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 3:40:46 PM

ICE ... mid-point of today's stock range is $149.02.

mid-point of IHH-JJ all exchanges would be $7.20 ($5.20 to $9.20)

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 3:39:28 PM

ICE $149.47 .... IHH-JJ $7.40 x $7.80

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 3:38:21 PM

US Awards Additional U.S. to China Air Routes

DJ- The U.S. Department of Transportation approved two new U.S.-China flights and proposed four more, as packed planes, China's rapid economic growth and ballooning commercial links with the U.S. open up the airways between the two countries. Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) was approved to offer nonstop flights from Atlanta to Shanghai, starting in April 2008, U.S. Transportation Secretary Mary E. Peters said. United Airlines won the right to offer direct flights between San Francisco and Guangzhou, beginning in spring of 2008. Peters also proposed awards for four new daily flights beginning in 2009: American Airlines for Chicago-Beijing service, Continental Airlines for Newark-Shanghai service, Northwest Airlines for Detroit-Shanghai service, and US Airways for Philadelphia-Beijing service. Final approval of the proposed flights could be announced in "the near future" after public comment, Peters said. "By bringing China and the U.S. one step closer, we increase our ability to compete, boost our success in the global marketplace, and make international travel for all passengers easier and more affordable," Peters said. Currently, there are seven nonstop U.S.-China routes. United flies five of them, with Continental and American having one each. In June, Delta emerged as the leading contender to win the first new nonstop flights between the U.S. and China to be awarded under a bilateral agreement reached in May. The flights, which were sought by Delta, were intended for U.S. carriers with no current China flights, eliminating AMR Corp.'s (AMR) American Airlines, Continental Airlines Inc. (CAL), Northwest Airlines Corp. (NWA) and UAL Corp.'s (UAUA) United. Few other airlines have the long-range planes needed for nonstop, trans-Pacific service. The deal also called for two new China routes in 2008 and five more for 2009. Under the agreement, the number of flights between the two countries is slated to climb to 23 a day by 2012 from 10 currently. U.S.-China air service has lagged behind China's rapid economic growth and ballooning commercial links with the U.S. Flights to China have averaged 80% full during the past two years, according to the DOT's Bureau of Transportation Statistics. In afternoon trading, shares of Delta rose 84 cents, or 5.2%, to $16.87; UAL was up 86 cents, or 2%, to $44.09; US Airways was up 52 cents, or 2%, to $26.50; and Northwest Airlines was up 33 cents, or 2.1%, to $16.40. Shares of Continental rose $1.05, or 3.4%, to $31.51; AMR was up 63 cents, or 3%, to $21.40.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 3:32:06 PM

Swing trade put establish stop alert! for the one (1) SLM Corp. SLM Oct $45 Put (SLM-VI) to $47.50 in the underlying.

SLM $46.50 -2.69% ...

SLM-VI $2.40 x $2.60

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 3:19:16 PM

Here comes the volume .... $149.15 .... $150????

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 3:18:19 PM

ICE's WKLY R2 147.00 ... sure thought with stock going into SPX at today's close, it would at least go out near the high of session ($152.15) at a minimum.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 3:16:01 PM

Day trade call stopped alert! ... with ICE $149.50 ... IHH-JJ $7.30 x $7.60.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 3:14:57 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 3:10:03 PM

Except for the techs which have been slowly rising all day, each time someone hits the market with a buy program and spikes it up along comes someone right behind them and hits it with a sell order. Either that or it's the same party and they're hoping to get a rally going with their buy program so that they can then sell into it. So far neither side is getting any follow through (except for the tech bulls). But the techs are going to need a little help here if they don't want to get dragged back down.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 3:03:28 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 2:53:14 PM

Day trade call option alert! ... for one (1) of the Intercontinental Exchange ICE Oct. $150 Calls (IHH-JJ) at the offer of $8.70. Stop if stock traded $149.50, target $155 in underlying.

ICE $151.42 ...

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 2:51:09 PM

Here are the internals. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 2:32:10 PM

optionsXpress (OXPS) $25.74 +5.14% ... Being added to the S&P SmallCap 600 tracker after Friday's close.

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 2:21:49 PM

The market is having a tough time fighting its way out of a wet paper bag today. Market internals are weak but the bears can't make hay out of that. But nor can the bulls overcome the underlying selling pressure. So we churn...

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 2:12:26 PM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their previous day ranges (PDR)s. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 2:07:11 PM

QUALCOMM BOOSTS 4Q EARNINGS VIEW

DJ- Firm raises its fiscal 4Q non-GAAP earnings expectation to 52c-53c a share from 48c-50c, on better-than-expected shipments of chipsets used in wireless phones. Revenue is seen slightly above or at high end of prior range.

QCOM $41.35 -0.69% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 2:05:58 PM

SOUTHWEST SEES REVENUE, COSTS RISING

DJ- Carrier expects 3Q revenue to rise more than 2% amid higher costs, including one-time pretax charge of $25 million for a program offering early retirement to some employees, and $15-million charge related to fuel hedging.

LUV $14.78 -1.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 2:04:52 PM

REDBOOK US RETAIL SALES RISE 0.5%

DJ- National chain store sales rise 0.5% in first three weeks of September versus previous month, Redbook Research says. International Council of Shopping Centers-UBS Retail Chain Store Sales Index falls 1.0% in week ended Sept. 22.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 2:03:57 PM

ECHOSTAR MULLS SPLITTING ITSELF IN TWO

DJ- EchoStar is considering whether to split itself into two companies: a satellite TV provider and a business made up of its technology and infrastructure assets, in order to unlock more value for shareholders.

DISH $43.88 +6.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 2:01:14 PM

FREDDIE MAC RETAINED PORTFOLIO HITS RECORD

DJ- Freddie Mac grows its retained portfolio 1.6% from July to August to a record $732.2 billion. It's the largest monthly increase since the company agreed to limit its portfolio growth in mid-2006.

FRE $59.45 -0.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 1:59:57 PM

Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $91.24 -0.53% ... #4 weighting in Dow Industrials.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 1:59:05 PM

BP CEO WARNS ON 3Q PERFORMANCE

BP- Shares fall 3% after oil major's CEO prepares his staff for a wide-ranging shake-up, delivering a blunt warning that 3Q revenues will be 'dreadful,' according to an FT report.

BP $69.04 -3.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 1:57:47 PM

US FOREX DAILY TRADING VOLUMES UP

DJ- Daily turnover in U.S. foreign exchange markets increases by 44% to $664 billion in April 2007 compared with $508 billion in April of 2004, continuing strong growth seen in prior two decades despite continued consolidation among dealers.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 1:56:24 PM

RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX AT 14

DJ- Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond says economic activity in the district was mixed in September, with the manufacturing index at 14, compared with the previous month's reading of 7.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 1:55:55 PM

GM, UAW RESUME TALKS AMID WALKOUT

DJ- Talks resume a day after union calls a strike amid a major sticking point: whether UAW should get some kind of jobs guarantee in exchange for health-care concession. Analysts say GM could lose billions if strike lasts more than two weeks.

GM $34.63 -0.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 1:54:55 PM

TARGET, LOWE'S SOUND SALES ALARMS

DJ- Recent strong retail performers are facing softer-than-expected sales, raising concerns about whether consumers are finally starting to snap their wallets shut and stokes concerns about holiday sales.

TGT $61.74 -3.98% ...

LOW $28.79 -5.76% ...

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 1:49:07 PM

Market internals are still bearish and MER is only pennies off its low. I'm certainly tempted to just switch to the short side right here with a stop against the last bounce high. But I'll let price prove to me where it's going--stop on ES long is at 1523 and I'll flip around to the short side at the same time. In the meantime I'm still waiting to see if the bulls can rescue this.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 1:48:20 PM

Both the USDJPY and DAX are in sync and bullish as are the AD ratio and VIX. However, what I find very interesting is that the AD volume is making new daily lows and normally this would keep me out of a long trade because it is bearish but the ratio belies that theory doesn't it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 1:26:28 PM

US 4-Week Bills: 3.270%; 66.96% At High

The U.S. Treasury awarded $12.00 billion in four-week bills at Tuesday's auction at a high rate of 3.270%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $41.07 billion and accepted $12.00 billion, including $299.42 million of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 99.745667 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 3.333%.

The Treasury also sold $964.80 million of bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis. Foreign and international noncompetitive tenders totaled $964.80 million.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 3.42, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 66.96%.

The Federal Reserve purchased $3.04 billion in bills for its own account. When the auction was announced, the Fed held $13.98 billion of maturing bills, and in Monday's auction the Fed purchased $10.94 billion in three- and six-month bills.

The bills awarded to the Federal Reserve are in addition to the public offering amount.

The median rate was 3.220%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 3.150%.

Accepted indirect bids for the four-week bill were 22.9% of the total competitive amount, up from 20.2% in last week's four-week bill auction.

The high rate was down from 3.930% at the previous four-week bill auction.

The high rate was the lowest since the rate of 3.150% at the four-week bill auction on Sept. 27, 2005.

The issue is dated Sept. 27 and matures on Oct. 25.

The CUSIP number on the four-week bill is 912795A76.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 1:21:24 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

09/10/07 Internals Link

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 1:16:06 PM

Correction, pull your stop up to a new low below the mid-day low, not to a new daily low.

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 1:14:32 PM

With the small bounce off the mid-day low it's now important for the bulls to hold that level. Therefore if you're long the market I'd have my stop pulled up to a new daily low. Let's see if we get another leg up for this rally. I might flip around short if stopped out of my long trade and keep a tight leash on it until it starts working.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 1:10:31 PM

MMM, mmm, mmm ... slap a conventional retracement on the RUT.X from that 09/10/07 low to recent inflection high of 822.87.

Not certain just how many NYSE-Listed stocks are in RUT.X, but I usually think 1,000.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 1:06:40 PM

NYSE NL alert! ... starting to mount at 123. That's 10-shy of the 09/10/07's 133.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 1:03:55 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 1:01:13 PM

SLM with a Level II of INET and the SLM-VI Level II Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 12:55:24 PM

SLM with a Level II of INET at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 12:47:45 PM

SLM Corp. (SLM) $46.89 -1.88% ... some stock being worked here. 60-minute interval chart with some shorter-term retracement and QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels. Link

I did mark the "bad tick" low from 09/06/07.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 12:40:34 PM

Canada: Weekly Earnings Up 3.7% In July From Yr. Ago

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 12:39:40 PM

GM: Canada's Ontario Plant Shut, Idling 3,000 Workers

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 12:38:53 PM

Canada: Job Insurance Claims Down 0.5% In July from June

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 12:34:41 PM

Student Loan (STU) $179.07 -1.88% ...

NelNet (NNI) $18.07 -0.38% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 12:25:16 PM

SLM Corp. (SLM) $47.02 -1.61% ... probes recent 09/18/07 relative low.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 12:24:02 PM

QQQQ ... 60-minute interval chart with WEEKLY (blue) and MONTHLY (dark purple) at this Link

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 12:16:59 PM

If you look at a downtrend line from yesterday morning, SPX broke above it this morning but is now sliding back down it. This doesn't exactly look bearish but I'm certainly wondering when it might consider it strong enough support to make a bounce off it. Link

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 12:11:47 PM

Market internals are still not supportive of a rally so I must admit I feel like I'm on the wrong side of the market being long ES from this morning. That's why my stop is at 1523--any deeper retracement than that and I'll just step aside. I may get whipsawed out of my trade but I'd rather that than sit on a losing trade. There's always going to be another bus that comes along that I can ride.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 12:09:40 PM

DIA ... 60-minute interval chart with WEEKLY (blue) and MONTHLY (dark purple) at this Link

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 12:01:51 PM

Approximate futures premium over cash (December futures):

YM -- +80
ES -- +12.25
NQ -- +21.50
ER -- +4.70

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 12:00:49 PM

RUT ... 60-minute interval chart with WEEKLY (blue) and MONTHLY (pink) pivot retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 11:56:42 AM

SPX 60-minute interval chart with WEEKLY (blue) and MONTHLY (pink) pivot retracement Link

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 11:55:55 AM

The brokers (XBD) are down almost -1.4% today (including Mother Merrill) and that's not a bullish sign. I'm trying the long side of the market after this morning's dip but I'm not going to hang around long if it doesn't start back up soon. There's a chance we'll consolidate sideways today as part of a larger downside pattern so I'm not excited about the shorting opportunity today. Either the long play works from here (I want to see ES stay above 1523) or else I'll probably just join those along the sidewalk watching the parade go by.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 11:51:11 AM

Sector Bell Curve Comparison (8/22/07 to 9/24/07) with current OPEN MM Profiles tied in at this Link

8/22/07 was the day Dorsey/Wright's NYSE bullish % reversed back up into X.

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 11:47:43 AM

Watching ES here, it should stay above 1523 if we've started the next rally leg. Otherwise the bears are likely still in control.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 11:44:12 AM

I think a revisit to $74.00/bl is the most likely scenario.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 11:42:36 AM

I think crude has a lot more retracing to do before it starts its next leg up although it could find support here easily enough. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 11:33:40 AM

Sector Status Changes ... Yesterday's action did have the Electric Utilities (BPEUTI) achieving "bull confirmed" status after previous "bear correction."

Finance (BPFINA) achieved "bull confirmed" status after previous "bull alert."

Internet (BPINET) achieved "bull confirmed" status after previous "bull correction."

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 11:22:00 AM

CME Group (CME) $543.25 +0.58% Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 11:19:07 AM

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) $149.56 +5.47% Link ... gave a reversing higher PnF buy signal yesterday at $140.

Today, the company said that it will be added to the S&P 500 Index

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 11:16:11 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 11:04:09 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 10:57:11 AM

SPX poked a little lower than the 1508.57 downside projection but got a nice bounce off this morning's low. If this morning's low is now taken out then it's likely it will head for the 1490-1495 area (pink). Until that happens the wave pattern calls for another new high from here (dark red): Link

We need to see a rally above 1530 to confirm a breakout from the bull flag pattern at which point I'll then be watching projections for how high it might actually get. Presently there are projections from 1538 all the way up to 1588. That's not very helpful yet but does point to the potential.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 10:56:49 AM

We have had a nice little rally but don't expect too much, the AD line is still quite bearish at -936. I would be using this rally to get short.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 10:48:30 AM

DIA $137.59 +0.02% ... its DAILY Pivot is at $137.84.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 10:47:37 AM

NDX 2,063 +0.27% ... its DAILY Pivot is at 2,059.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 10:43:03 AM

NASDAQ A/D Ratio ($NASI) 20-point box chart Link ... at -400.00 on chart, -392.11 actual at last night's close.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 10:40:58 AM

NYSE A/D Ratio ($NYSI) 20-point box chart Link

It is a "good thing" that Jane has discovered the a/d ratio. Traders and investors can string the daily measures together in a chart and follow with time.

NYSE A/D Ratio chart nearing the "water line" of zero (0.00).

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 10:30:30 AM

10:05 AM Weekly/Monthly Pivot Matrix found at this Link

BIX weakest in the WEEKLY and MONTHLY. RUT.X next weakest in WEEKLY, but still above MONTHLY Pivot.

INDU/DIA and NDX/QQQQ only equity-based indexes to NOT see a trade at WEEKLY Pivot.

Short strength? If so, then monitor WEAKNESS!

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 10:16:57 AM

I can't tell you now glad I am that Linda put me on to the AD ratio. Look at how different the AD volume and ratio are today? Link

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 10:10:19 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. sales of existing homes fell 4.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.50 million in August, the lowest since August 2002, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. Sales in August were down 12.8% compared with August 2006. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting sales in August to fall to a 5.49 million pace. Inventories of unsold homes on the market rose by 0.4% to 4.58 million, representing a 10-month supply at the August sales rate. For single-family homes alone, the inventory represents a 9.8-month supply, the most since May 1989. The median sales price was $224,500, up 0.2% since August 2006. Single-family median prices were unchanged year-over-year at $223,900.

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 10:10:07 AM

A little whipsaw around the 10:00 reports. Now we'll see if that's the bottom of the pullback. The DOW has pulled back to the mid line of its parallel up-channel from August 16th and if it can get back above 13750 it will have recovered its broken uptrend line from Sept 10th. Conversely, a failure at that level would be a kiss goodbye retest of the broken uptrend line. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2007 10:09:16 AM

10:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 10:08:49 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. consumer confidence declined to its lowest level in nearly two years in September as a weaker job market and uncertain business conditions increased concern about the outlook, the Conference Board said Tuesday.

The consumer confidence index fell to 99.8 in September from a revised 105.6 in August, the research group reported. This is the lowest level since November 2005.

The drop was larger than expected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been expecting the index to fall to 103.8 from the initial estimate of 105.0 in August

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 9:49:47 AM

NQ just got a strong shot of buying. Someone sure loves the techs lately.

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 9:48:30 AM

In the DOW's pullback from last week's high, if it's to be just a correction that leads to another high, it's a-b-c pattern suggests the 2nd leg down could go 162% of its 1st leg down. That gives us a downside projection of 13676. A 38% retracement of the leg up from last Monday Sept 17th is at 13674. So from a Fib standpoint the 13675 area certainly has potential to be the target and support.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 9:44:36 AM

All markets are trading below their respective Overnight lows except NQ (NDX futures).

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 9:43:06 AM

Interesting I mentioned the AD volume was making new daily lows but the AD volume RATIO is climbing.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 9:41:09 AM

We have the USDJPY making new daily lows (based on a 9:30 open) but the DAX making new daily highs so these two sort of cancel each other out. Then we have the VIX hovering at daily lows but the AD volume falling so these two cancel each other out as well.

I will keep you posted if I see the internals back in sync.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 9:35:28 AM

AD line now at -1342

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 9:34:20 AM

Remember today we have:

10:00a.m. August Existing Home Sales. Expected: -4.4%. Previous: -0.2%.

10:00a.m. Sep Conference Board Consumer Confidence. Expected: 104.5. Previous: 105.0.

10:00a.m. Sep Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Previous: 7

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 9:33:07 AM

AD line is a bearish -717 but remember the AD line has been trading well under -1000 or above +1000 of late so this needs to get below -1000 before I am down right bearish.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 9:30:51 AM

So far the SPX is holding up quite well and is certainly not making the kind of retracement I suspected, which was a retracement to at least 1500 or the 50EMA. Link

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 9:26:58 AM

US$ down, Gold down, Crude down. This is not in sync for the normal relationship is US$ down, Gold up and Crude up but what I think I happening is the price of crude is having more of affect on Gold than normal. Under a "normal" environment we have the US$ trading opposite to Gold and Crude. Link

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 9:19:30 AM

All markets are trading under their previous day lows except - you guessed it NQ (NDX futures).

Yesterday the AD line hovered below 0, which was telling the bulls beware and sure enough when the bears got their act together they were able to grab control and pull the market down. Link

Keene Little : 9/25/2007 9:19:18 AM

Matching the downside price projection at SPX 1508.57, for two equal legs down from last week's high (which is also the bottom of a potential bull flag), is ES 1520.50. So far ES has dropped to 1521.75 this morning (just hit). Equities will gap down this morning so it'll be interesting to see if they do a quick turn back up after an initial spike down or just keep heading lower to the next potential support area.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 9:06:40 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures fell sharply in electronic trading early Tuesday, as traders rushed to lock in profits as worries eased of storm damage in the Gulf of Mexico. Crude oil for November delivery dropped 97 cents, or 1.2%, at $79.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"Selling continued as Gulf of Mexico production was restored after last week's storm threat abated," said analysts at Action Economics.

On Monday, crude fell 67 cents, or 0.8%, to close at $80.95 a barrel

Jane Fox : 9/25/2007 9:05:08 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Lennar Corp., one the nation's largest home builders, before Tuesday's opening bell said it posted a loss for its fiscal third quarter as falling prices and mortgage-market turmoil continued to weigh on the housing market.

"It is already well documented that the housing market has continued to deteriorate throughout our third quarter," said Chief Executive Stuart Miller in the earnings release.

"Heavy discounting by builders, and now the existing home market as well, has continued to drive pricing downward," he said. "Consumer confidence in housing has remained low, while the mortgage market has continued to redefine itself, creating higher cancellation rates."

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