Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Keene Little : 10/4/2007 10:56:56 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

The various indices are set up similarly--ready for a break and all we're doing now is waiting for the direction. The SPX 60-min chart shows price has stayed above its uptrend line from the Sept 25th low so as long as that holds then we should get another rally leg out of this and I like the upside Fib projection zone near 1560: Link

I placed the wave count on RSI also to see if it continues to support the wave count with the higher highs for 3rd waves and lower highs for 5th waves. The longer term chart pattern, as I've pointed out recently on the weekly chart, points to 1563 as a potentially very important level. It takes a break below 1522 to say we've got something more immediately bearish in progress.

The 30-min chart shows the current consolidation pattern and why we could see a drop down to 1534-1535 before starting a rally so don't get pulled in on an initial spike down Friday morning (if we get it). Link

The NDX consolidation looks like it could use another leg down to finish it and then start another rally leg: Link . A break below 2082 would say Monday's high may have been it, especially if it gaps down on Friday and sells off hard (it would be a 3rd of a 3rd wave down in the move down from Monday). Otherwise it should find support above that level and start rallying, maybe even with a gap up and run higher.

The daily chart shows the ascending wedge and how another rally leg would fit. Resistance runs from about 2135-2170. A break below 2032 would tell us we're at least into a larger pullback and probably headed for the bottom of the up-channel from 2006. Link

OI Technical Staff : 10/4/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 8:40:15 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Closed 1/2 of the TWM (was 1/2, now 1/4)

Closed 1/2 of the CDE (was full, now 1/2)

OLN-AD are $2.50 x $2.70
DAZ-LN $2.19 x $2.28
IWO-VZ $0.35 x $0.39
GG-AZ $2.05 x $2.15
IHH-KN $4.30 x $4.60
XLF-KI $1.40 x $1.49
FLK-AH $5.00 x $5.20

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 8:23:03 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 5:09:56 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 5:01:54 PM

S&P Price/Earnings Ratio @ 17.50, Up From 17.46

DJ- The price/earnings ratio of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index at the close of trading Thursday was 17.50.

On Wednesday, the ratio ended at 17.46.

The price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 measures the index's closing level divided by the index's total earnings, as reported under generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, for the most recent year.

In 2006, the most recently reported year, S&P 500 companies reported earnings of $88.18 a share.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 4:56:35 PM

December Copper (hg07z) $3.74 -0.53% ... up 30.7% YTD

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 4:55:12 PM

The ISEE option data shows call buying was swamping put buying today (and has been this week) so there appears to have been some heavy betting on an upside breakout tomorrow. That's a caution sign for the bulls since the market rarely accommodates the majority in this situation. It might be good for only a blast to the downside to stop out a lot of these call buyers, suck in some shorts and then use that bear fuel to start another rally leg. We should know relatively early tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 4:53:24 PM

Peru's September Tax Collections Rise 18% On-Year

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 4:41:59 PM

Alcoa to Sell 2 Divisions ... AP Story Link

AA $37.66 +0.05% ... edges up $38.03 extended.

Might overtake GM as #24 weighted INDU component.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 4:36:51 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.05 +0.44% ... continues to stabilize. 09/27/07 NAV at post-credit crunch high of $9.64. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 4:36:45 PM

Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index: 202.20; YLD 5.70% ... Closed 201.83 with YLD 5.74% on Wednesday.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 4:31:42 PM

Plum Creek Timber (PCL) $44.87 -0.20% ... halted. News pending.

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 4:28:14 PM

An interesting observation from John, RIMM has a blowout quarter and they give it a $5 haircut. Citigroup writes off billions and takes a 60% cut in earnings and it rallies - go figure.

Have I mentioned before that I gave up long ago trying to figure out how the market will react to news? RIMM of course is a bit overbought and sell the news was the first reaction. C was a relief rally that looks to have caught shorts by surprise but I suspect the banks will quickly be sold again soon.

BTW, RIMM has since rallied after the intial spike down and is now printing near 102, tacking on gains to today's rally. Make that 101, now 100--spiky little bugger.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 4:26:47 PM

Plenty of time before trying to short USO Link ... Bullish vertical count to $85.50 still in play. Negated if USO were to give a double-bottom sell signal at $60.50.

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 4:23:41 PM

I was thinking the same as Jeff when I looked at USO at the end of the day. I did the same EW/Fib analysis on it as I did for the oil chart and it looks to me like it could get a minor new high before finishing the leg up from this morning's low (same thing for oil). The Fibs correlate for a resistance zone at 62.84-63.00. There are no shares to short so it's a moot point but that's where I'd be looking to short this one (or oil if you like playing the e-mini). Link

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 4:16:48 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. Sep Nonfarm Payrolls. Expected: +110K. Previous: -4K.

8:30a.m. Sep Unemployment Rate. Expected: 4.7%. Previous: 4.6%.

9:40a.m. ECRI Inflation Gauge. Previous: 116.8.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 4:16:06 PM

Barry! Might be a saving grace? USO $62.61 +2.15% ...

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 4:12:47 PM

Unfortunately the consolidation pattern did not leave us with a cleaner potential setup heading into tomorrow morning. SPX parked itself at the top of its pattern and could just as easily pullback sharply before rallying or take off directly from here. Interestingly, the bounce pattern off yesterday afternoon's low is set up for a gap up and run just like RIMM, if that's the way the market is going to go. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 4:11:11 PM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $100.54 +4.42% ... dips to $95.50 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 4:05:43 PM

Coeur D' Alene (CDE) goes out at $3.75. Session low/high was $3.62/$3.76.

DAILY Pivot Levels for tomorrow are ... $3.57, $3.66, Piv= $3.71, $3.80, $3.85.

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 3:59:18 PM

LOL, Jeff I kinda like a double dip myself. You and Alan are thinking alike.

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 3:57:04 PM

Pull up a minute chart of the SPX from Friday to Wednesday. Draw a line from the low Friday to the low of Wednesday. Draw a line from the high Monday to high Tuesday and Wednesday. See the nice cone? Looks like Friday will be a critical breakout day with Thursday moving between 1538 and 1545. Buying a strangle at the close Thursday may be the way to go as Jim mentioned during the weekend wrap. Alan

Thanks for suggestion Alan. With some cheap October options it just might work. My only caution is that the move up could be a relatively quick flash in the pan and then quickly die (kind of like RIMM which I just discussed). So if you do play this and you get profitable on the call side I'd suggest taking profits and then let the puts ride.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 3:56:59 PM

RIMM Oct. $105 Calls (RUL-JL) $5.50 x $5.70 are chocolate mint flavored.

RIMM Oct. $95 Puts (RUL-VS) $4.85 x $4.90 are red raspberry flavored.

What flavor do you like?

Double dip of both?

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 3:55:17 PM

Egads I'm not so sure I would be shorting USO right now. Support needs to break first.

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 3:54:06 PM

Jeff, answer from Barry: USO--just tried to short 1000 shares at TDA and no shares available.

Thanks Barry.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 3:52:51 PM


Keene Little : 10/4/2007 3:49:52 PM

Any comments on playing RIMM before earnings tonight. Maybe a sell on the news?

Barry, you were probably one of those kids who liked to hold firecrackers in your hand and throw them at the very last minute trying to see how close you could get it to explode near your hand without having it explode in your hand. One look at the weekly chart and memories of 1999-2000 come flooding back: Link . By the way, those are not fond memories, at least not following that period.

I suspect RIMM's next big move will be down but perhaps not until it gets a small pullback and then another push higher to finish its 5-wave move up from 2006. Then it should drop to at least the $60 area. Whether it first drops back down as part of its consolidation pattern since the high on Sept 27th or shoots higher from here is too difficult a call to make.

I can say one thing though, based on its rally pattern off Monday's low, if it's headed higher from here it will likely gap up and run higher tomorrow. But a gap up like that would be a perfect exhaustion gap and I'd be looking to short the move (after you're pretty sure it's running out of steam in the move up--look for lots of bearish divergences).

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 3:47:28 PM

Day trade long adjustment alert! ... Sell 1/2 of the full position (1,351 shares for $10k=full) in Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) $3.76 +1.62% ... at the bid of $3.75

Hold the other 1/2 position overnight.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 3:44:03 PM

Ya well I sleep with a grandpa Keene so its OK you sleep with a grandma.

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 3:35:02 PM

Into the last half hour of trading and price action couldn't get much tighter. Just got a little pop up as I'm typing. Probing for stops? ES just hit its downtrend line from Monday so maybe we'll get a little breakout started. I don't think there will be much behind it (unless some news leaked).

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 3:29:19 PM

Jeff, since you're talking about Monster and the type of employment, I thought you might be interested in knowing that Monster's September Employment Index was released today. The Index was steady at 186. White-collar--especially financial--industries took a hit, but Monster didn't feel that there was dramatic spillover into the broader service sector. Construction; transportion and warehousing; and arts, entertainment and recreation increased, but real estate and rental and leasing of course decreased.

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 3:26:32 PM

Thanks. I'm still not sure how I got to be a grandfather. I'm way too young! What's really scary is that I'm sleeping with a grandmother.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 3:25:33 PM

GoldCorp (GG) $30.298 +1.67% ... best levels of session.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 3:24:01 PM

Evelyn is beautiful, Keene!

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 3:22:51 PM

My goodness Keene I had no idea you were a new grandpa - Congrats.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 3:21:25 PM

Bearish swing trade long close 1/2 position alert! for the UltraShort Russell 2000 (AMEX:TWM) at the bid of $62.08.

Bring position down to 1/4.

Selling 40 of 80 shares.

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 3:20:40 PM

It's slow so what the heck, here's a picture of a proud grandfather (that would be me) and his new granddaughter Evelyn (not so new anymore--born in July). Link

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 3:11:55 PM

If I want to take a short in Crude I will usually buy puts on the USO although Jim Brown our resident Crude expert uses XLE puts.

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 3:09:22 PM

Jeff, just caught your question on USO (2:51). I haven't tried trading the USO so I'm not sure what the status is on the ability to short it right now. I'm not sure who had commented on that subject. It might be easier (safer?) shorting one of the oil stocks since I see the index (OIX) having the same pattern as oil but might lead to the downside as compared to the commodity.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 3:03:04 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 3:03:03 PM

Just looking at the Oct QQQQ $53 puts and only $0.16 of premium in the current ask and $53 call OI is 5X $53 put OI. Also significant OI imbalance at $52 strike. Any comments? Thanks

Usually when you see this kind of difference in the OI at certain strike levels you have to figure there's going to be a lot of resistance at those price levels (or support if the OI on lower strike puts was greater than the OI on calls). I haven't checked out the option chain but the numbers you provided tell me $52-$53 could be tough resistance.

A 40-point move in NDX equates to about $1 move in QQQQ. On the daily chart I've been showing upside potential to about 2135 up to as high as 2170: Link . That would be a 35 to 70-point rally for NDX and would give us a target zone for QQQQ around 52.50 to 53.40 which correlates pretty well with resistance by your OI observation.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 3:02:36 PM

Crude has certainly found support but could be making a head and shoulders. If it is indeed building a H&S it has a very clear neckline and the projected target is almost down to $74.00. Would it be that clear - nah! Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 2:59:30 PM

How about them Rockies? Hurdle should win manager of the year in my opinion. What a job. I doubted him earlier this year, but his management of the team looks impressive.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 2:56:19 PM

I'm paying attention to what's going on, but just being very careful what I say right now. My scenario for today is and always has been that we might see just this kind of day. From emails I've received in the past, however, I'm aware that statements can be taken out of context, that bulls can think posts are supporting their positions while bears think posts are supporting theirs, and I don't want to be leading anyone astray by making too frequent posts. Right now, I don't see anything at all that's going to tell you much. There continues to be a slight strengthening of support on the SPX's 15-minute Keltner chart, and that suggests a slight possibility that the SPX could attempt a push higher, but it's so slight that it's almost nonsensical to peg anything on that lineup. Anything can happen but probably nothing much will.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 2:54:39 PM

Got some "shorts/bear" and some "long/bull" in MM Profiles.

Will let the MARKET decide where we go from here.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 2:51:01 PM

Just wondering if any USO freed up to short. You had mentioned several days ago that there was no USO available to short.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 2:50:18 PM

I keep thinking never short a dull market and I am short this dull market. Ah GEE!

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 2:45:26 PM

Jeff, I haven't heard (nor checked) about Ameritrade offering trading in USO. I don't have an account with them to know what they're doing.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 2:43:07 PM

Keene ... any update on USO availability from Ameritrade?

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 2:41:58 PM

VIX just spiked upward and all the "hope" I had for this longest trade in the history of daytrading may be out the window.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 2:41:30 PM

What type of "jobs" do you associated MAN with?

What type of jobs do you associate MNST with?

I tend to think manual labor vs. office labor.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 2:39:19 PM

So far this week, computers have kept SPX in check.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 2:38:41 PM

SPX is pretty clear to me. Much above WEEKLY R2 on a "poor jobs report is what market wants," would be confirmation of such analysis.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 2:36:11 PM

Clue #2 ... what to do? MNST $35.93 +1.61% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 2:35:36 PM

Ooooo.... clue #1? MAN $67.04 -0.57% ... it has reversed hasn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 2:34:50 PM

I think that's it.

CNBC guest analysts about an hour ago ... One said he thinks the market wants a "poor" jobs report, or one that will sway the Fed to another rate cut.

So ... maybe gold traders get "squared up" into the report.

A "poor" jobs number for a rate cut, could be seen as reflationary.

Dollar has traded WEAK as Fed cuts.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 2:32:32 PM

GLD $72.83 +1.29% ... bugger went right to WEEKLY Pivot ($73.03) and stopped. Session high $73.06. DAILY R2 $72.79.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 2:28:06 PM

TRINQ still rather high 1.73. CSCO $32.05 -1.23%, yet Money Flow Table 125/100.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 2:26:21 PM

I don't see much in the CBOE most active call/put to hint at VIX.X action from earlier. VIX "blipped" under WEEKLY Pivot, but now back above at 18.56.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 2:24:08 PM

CBOE Most Active Call/Put ... Noted PBR this morning. What's up with XMSR?

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 2:17:58 PM

DJ- Money Flow Table at this Link

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 2:17:08 PM

If you'd like to trade something other than the stock indices, you might want to take a look at oil. I've been watching the December contract and after it hit its Fib target for two equal legs up from January 2007 and the top of its parallel up-channel I'm thinking it'll be downhill from here. Link

Oil dropped sharply from last Friday's high and has since given us a 3-wave bounce. The 2nd leg of the bounce (wave-c) is close to achieving 162% of the 1st leg up (wave-a) and has achieved a 62% retracement of the decline: Link . I think it's a short play setup here for the next leg down which should be a very sharp decline. You can use QM (the e-mini) or USO for a trading vehicle.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 2:13:07 PM

Very interesting. I'm noticing that no repos--zero, zip, nada--mature for the next four trading days. That can change, of course, if the Fed announces one or two-day repos over the next few days. I've been noting that the Fed has been allowing some net drains over the last couple of weeks, and that's resulted in far less money sloshing through through the system, money in the form of repos that haven't yet matured. I've wondered if the Fed is trying to draw back on the liquidity and if this is a sign that we can all breathe easier about the possible impact of the credit crunch or if this is some kind of way of propping up the U.S. dollar. I'm just really not qualified to guess and am only curious enough to question.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 2:05:27 PM

VIX climbing so this is encouraging for anyone short.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 2:04:30 PM

Internals are telling me Nadda. No help at all. Oh by the way the short YM trade from this morning - I'm still in it. Longest dang trade I have had for years.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 2:00:46 PM

OK now do I go long Gold? The pullback was not as strong as I suspected but this is looking very bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 1:50:47 PM

Dateline WSJ - VIENNA -- The European Central Bank and Bank of England left key policy interest rates on hold, and the increasing risk of economic fallout from the ongoing credit crunch is likely to keep European rates from rising soon despite persistent worries about inflation at the central banks.

The decisions left the ECB's key rate at 4% and the Bank of England's at 5.75%. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the credit turmoil hadn't changed the bank's view that the euro-zone economy remains solid or its worries about inflation. But he stressed "heightened uncertainty" surrounding the forecast due to financial-market upheavals.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 1:50:24 PM

For whatever it's worth, here's what I see on the SPX: it's been moving sideways, chopping back and forth between the converging 15-minute 9-ema and 45-ema, both near 1541.25-1541.50. There's a slight chance that support near 1538.63-1539.55 may be strengthening. Support lines are not strong enough yet to promise much of anything, but if they continue strengthening, it's possible that there will be slightly more upward impetus than downward. Honestly, though, what it looks most like at this point is that the channels are flattening as they often do the day before a big announcement, when prices get tied to a certain number awaiting that announcement. When that happens, you're just micromanaging (better interpretation: grasping at straws) to try to interpret anything much from your typical setups.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 1:48:15 PM

Coeur D' Alene (CDE) 10-minute interval chart with QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels turned on Link

Review action from 09/20/07 trade.

Note where SLV's WKLY S1 and Piv are.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 1:47:55 PM

Markets are still trading within their overnight ranges and things are very very slow out there now - like you needed me to tell you that. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 1:27:56 PM

01:10 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 1:15:05 PM

01:10 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 1:11:56 PM

IWM $82.50 +0.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 1:11:38 PM

Monster Worldwide (MNST) $35.90 +1.55% ...

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 1:05:45 PM

The flag pattern for SPX is a little wider than what I showed this morning and I'm assuming for the moment that we will see another pullback within the pattern before setting up the next rally leg. A drop down to 1534.52 (two equal legs down from yesterday) would be a good setup and it might actually be a result of a quick spike down tomorrow morning. That's just speculation but it would fit. Link

In the meantime I'm taking my own advice and spending some time reading today. Im reading Martin Pring's "Investment Psychology Explained" which is a quick read and a great reminder of the mind games we have to overcome in order to be successful traders. Highly recommended, especially if you find yourself repeating the same mistakes.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 1:05:44 PM

Go $3.70 on CDE alert!

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 1:05:33 PM

The TRAN is just going sideways today. If it's serving as an indicator for us, it's indicating . . . sideways. I see a possibility on a 15-minute Keltner chart that it could decline to 4831 and maybe even 4801, but it's not a probability. It looks about equally likely that it will rise to 4859-4863.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 1:05:21 PM

Day trade long alert! for full position in shares of Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) at the offer of $3.69. Stop goes $3.65. Target $3.83.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 1:03:35 PM

GLD $72.80 +1.25% ... 3-box reversal higher.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 1:01:57 PM

I sense, based on observation, great pressure builing in several MM Profiles.

FFIV $41.41 +3.57% ... as close at $41.97 is to $42.00, it wasn't $42.00.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 12:53:11 PM

GLD Link ... to match futures $4 box chart.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 12:49:40 PM

GLD ... 5-minute interval chart with QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels turned on. Added an INET Level II Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 12:42:09 PM

Crazy looking Level II on GLD.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 12:41:19 PM

GG $30.06 +0.94% ... still pressed against its WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 12:40:32 PM

GLD's WEEKLY Pivot is $73.04. That would be just about 1/2 the distance into Tuesday's gap. Much above there and things could get interesting.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 12:36:20 PM

Short squeeze alert! ... GLD $72.70

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 12:29:46 PM


DJ- Trade in shares of ABN Amro will be halted from 1300 GMT until the next day of trading, according to NYSE Euronext. Halt related to expiration of Barclay's offer period for ABN Amro shareholders to tender their shares.

ABN $53.13 ....

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 12:25:14 PM

The RUT's balance of nearby support and resistance is beginning to shift, as displayed on a 15-minute Keltner chart. They're now more balanced than they were an hour ago, when I made my 11:18:13 post. Since that time, the RUT did go on testing resistance for another 15-30 minutes, but then as support softened, the RUT sank back a little. At this point, it's difficult to ascertain what might happen next.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 12:23:02 PM

Bear Stearns CEO: Not Looking For Outside Equity Infusion

BSC $127.07 -0.94% ...

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 12:18:42 PM

On the other hand an index that trades in sync with the DOW, the DAX, is supporting the bullishness. Link

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 12:17:36 PM

As Linda has mentioned before the TRAN is not anywhere near as bullish as the other indexes. If you are bullish, as I am, then you want this index to perk up a little. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 12:17:03 PM


DJ- Although rent growth remains healthy in the 3Q, up 2.4% to $24.17 per square foot, it was off the pace set in the first six months of the year, when rents grew an average 3% per quarter before the credit turmoil and uncertainty about the economy's direction.

SPG $103.81 -0.80% ... sits on 200-day SMA. About 8-days too early on that short back in late-April.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 12:16:06 PM

Yup I think the Russell 2000 has found support here. Link

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 12:13:41 PM

GOOG has done a good job showing us the way for the latest rally so I continue to watch it for signals as to whether the rally has some more life to it or if it might have topped. The daily chart unfortunately shows the same two possibilities as the NDX pattern (the possibility for another push higher or for a top on Tuesday): Link

The spike up on Tuesday and then collapse back down looks bearish (shooting star). The past two days have been negative but not what I'd consider a confirmation of the reversal signal. It could be just consolidating for another run higher like the broader market appears to be doing. Watch for support around 576 in this case.

The reason for the two wave counts for the move up from August (both are 5-wave counts) is the possibility for a quick 1-2, 1-2 wave count in the move up to the Sept 6 high. That move was either just wave-1 (pink) or it was wave-1 followed by a smaller degree first wave (wave-(i) of 3). It makes a difference when labeling Tuesday's high--it was either the end of the rally (pink wave-5) or it was the end of wave-3 (dark red).

I'm leaning towards the dark red wave count because of the missing negative divergence. The final high should show a bearish divergence against the previous high, or at least that's what I like to see to add confidence to the EW count. Therefore this supports the idea that the broader market has been consolidating in bull flags and will likely resolve to the upside after tomorrow's jobs report.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 12:12:14 PM

USO and GLD both tested 21-day SMA's this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 12:10:52 PM


DJ- South African government orders Harmony Gold's Elandsrand mine, where about 3,200 workers were trapped deep underground after the shaft lift was damaged, to be closed for up to six weeks while an investigation is carried out.

HMY $10.61 +1.43% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 12:07:17 PM


DJ- Fed Governor Mishkin says central banks pay 'great attention' to exchange rate as it contains information about future developments and the tradable sector of an economy, adding the euro currently is 'highly appreciated.'

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 12:05:36 PM

Wal-Mart (WMT) $44.82 -0.68% ... #21 weighted INDU/DIA/YM. If memory serves, they too were looking to open banks.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 12:04:35 PM


DJ- Fed's top attorney tells a Senate panel that Congress should prohibit commercial and retail firms from owning banks going forward because of competitiveness issues. Remarks come as Home Depot seeks to open a state-charted bank, or ILC.

HD $33.53 -1.03% ... #27 weighted in INDU/DIA/YM

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 12:02:49 PM


DJ- Software giant says video game sales surpass the $300 million mark in its first week on the market. Microsoft previously said the game racked up about $170 million in sales in its first 24 hours.

MSFT $29.61 +0.54% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 12:00:42 PM


DJ- Corporate law judge orders Countrywide to open its books to a big shareholder that says it suspects the lender manipulated the granting of stock options grants to executives between 1997 and 2002.

CFC $20.07 -0.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 11:58:13 AM


DJ- Bear Stearns President Alan Schwartz says that the Federal Reserve's 50-basis-point interest rate cut has helped stabilize the jittery markets. He says business is slowly rebounding after a turbulent summer.

BSC $127.07 -0.83% ... #45 weighting (0.54%) in XLF, but has been a real drag.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 11:55:58 AM

Citigroup (C) $48.29 +0.83% ... sitting on WEEKLY R2 ($48.25). #1 weighting (8.67%) in XLF

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 11:54:47 AM


DJ- Brokerage, which is seen posting about $4 billion in losses, ousts global head of fixed income, Osman Semerci, his deputy, Dale Lattanzio, and cuts ties to their former boss, Dow Kim, and his new hedge fund.

MER $74.75 -1.64% ... #10 weighting (2.38%) in XLF

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 11:53:55 AM

Here are the PDR charts. THE DOW and S&P usually trade in sync with one another but not today. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 11:51:54 AM

So far, just another boring day on the consolidation highway.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 11:50:27 AM

DJ Survey: US Sep Payrolls Seen +100k, Jobless 4.7%

DJ- Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have undergone a modest rebound in September after a surprise decline in the prior month, but the jobless rate is expected to have edged higher. The median estimate of 23 economists surveyed Monday is for a 100,000 increase in nonfarm jobs in September after the decline of 4,000 in the prior month, while they also look for a 0.3% increase in hourly earnings after a 0.3% gain in August. They expect the jobless rate to edge up to 4.7% from 4.6%. If payrolls rose in line with the consensus, it would be a 0.07% increase. Any increase between 70,000 and 207,000 rounds to a 0.1% increase, so, despite the fine tuning that goes on, all of the forecasts fall within that range and are essentially the same. The Labor Department is due to release the September jobs report at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) Friday. "Nonfarm payrolls should bounce back from August's subtraction of 4,000 jobs and add 100,000 workers in September," noted Ben Garber, an economist at Moody's Investors Service in New York. "Payrolls could benefit greatly from a reversal of an anomalous loss of a combined 80,000 government jobs in July and August. While the housing sector continues to bleed jobs, initial unemployment insurance claims have yet to rise in a manner that reflects mass layoffs. Jobless claims as a percent of the labor force actually hit an 11-month low in August. This should allow September's unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.6%."

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 11:46:08 AM

XLF $35.43 +0.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 11:45:21 AM

TWM $61.88 -0.29% ... can't take another wave of strength from the banks.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 11:43:56 AM

BIX.X 375.39 +0.78% ... sideways consolidation. Looks like Monday's trade.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 11:38:16 AM

Nobody should want to own the most domestically sensitive small caps if the jobs data is negative.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 11:36:45 AM

Why in the HECK won't the RUT.X break back below WEEKLY R2.

This "shouldn't be happening" says the bear in me.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 11:35:28 AM

Hmmmm ... SPX's session low smack on WEEKLY R1. Still noting SPX did NOT trade my derived WEEKLY R2 this week.

QCharts' WEEKLY R2 is (1548.886) and Monday's high was 1,548.86.

Friday's jobs report could be HUGE.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 11:31:27 AM

Trying to sell NASDAQ (TRINQ) this morning, but more call buying/put selling than call selling/put buying.

As if an at-the-money NAKED Put (obligation to buy) exercised

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 11:28:10 AM

VIX.X alert! ... 18.36 -2.34% ... slips under WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 11:24:10 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 11:19:19 AM

The RUT was in danger this morning for a while of confirming a two-headed (or lumpy-headed) head-and-shoulders formation. So many times over the last years, these high momentum moves that are topped by such formations have the formations invalidated by a move back above the right shoulder, and that's what's happened so far on the RUT. So, the move off last Friday's low is now topped by an indeterminately shaped formation that is neither this nor that. No new high but an invalidation of the potential H&S formation. Right now, support may look slightly stronger than resistance on a Keltner basis, so possibly we're due for some more testing of resistance, but it's difficult to say any more than that, or even to say that with much confidence.

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 11:17:46 AM

The bounce off yesterday afternoon's low for SPX achieved two equal legs up at 1543.97 so it could be ready for another leg down in its consolidation pattern.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 11:11:17 AM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Long-term mortgage rates eased this week, following consecutive weeks of increases, Freddie Mac's chief economist said on Thursday.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.37% for the week ending Oct. 3, down from its 6.42% average last week, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey. The mortgage averaged 6.30% a year ago.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.03%, down from last week's 6.09%. The mortgage averaged 5.98% a year ago.

Adjustable-rate mortgages also trended down last week, with five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages averaging 6.11% for the week, down from 6.15% last week. The ARM averaged 6.00% a year ago.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 11:10:37 AM

F5 (FFIV) $41.75 +4.50% ... wondering if ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 11:09:52 AM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $32.04 -1.26% ... #2 most active at NASDAQ.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 11:05:16 AM

DJUSHB could be "key" next week. For those that have WEEKLY Pivot Levels with QCharts, check out the DJUSHB on a 60-minute interval chart. Note how the DJUSHB has traded after these BIG spikes above WEEKLY R2 and the reversals back lower.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 11:03:10 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 11:01:30 AM

AD line is now back above 0 and has made a daily high of +750. My scenario is playing out - it just took a little longer than I expected.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 11:00:25 AM

Well it took a while but the VIX is back in control and ES made new daily highs.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 10:58:55 AM

The TRAN has been bouncing today off its 30-sma on the daily chart, but it's still within that triangle, now narrowing relentlessly toward its apex. As I was preparing this post, the TRAN has only just passed up its previous high of the day at 4864.09, printing a new high of 4864.33, a new high it hasn't been able to sustain so far. The TRAN has what looks like significant potential resistance at about 4866.56 on 15-minute closes, and it needs to sustain values above that to get anything much going to the upside. Even then, it faces tougher resistance on the daily chart. In other words, the TRAN needs some strong momentum behind it or it's not going to break through again today. The TRAN is at 4860.36 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 10:54:13 AM

USDJPY at 116.29, still testing potential support neat 116.23 on 15-minute closes. It's slipping below historical support/resistance near 116.30-116.50 however, after breaking above it yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 10:51:23 AM

Merrill Raises Brazil's Petrobras Target To $97/ADR

PBR $75.95 +1.61% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 10:50:27 AM

DJ- E.ON Acquires Wind Power Parks In N. America

Tab Gilles : 10/4/2007 10:50:24 AM

Sears Holdings (SHLD) News on why SHLD saw heavy volume yesterday and today.

Ackman's Pershing Square Buys 5M Sears Holdings (SHLD) Shares 10-04-2007 08:09:43 AM News reported yesterday at StreetInsider.com, that activist investor William Ackman bought a 5 million share stake in Sears Holdings Corporation (Nasdaq: SHLD), is making the rounds through various other media outlets, including Bloomberg. Watch for action in the stock today as the news is disseminated.

At a charity event in Dallas Tuesday, William Ackman, the owner of activist hedge fund Pershing Square Capital, told the audience that he owns a 5 million share stake in Sears. Ackman also indicated that he was thrilled with the efforts of Sears' Chairman Eddie Lampert and was looking forward to working with him.

A 5 million share stake in Sears would give Ackman's firm 3.5% of the outstanding stock.

Ackman's firm recently accumulated a large stake in another large US retailer, Target (NYSE: TGT). Following Ackman's involvement, Target said they would review alternatives for their credit card receivables.

Last year, Ackman won a battle against Lampert's Sears Holdings when the Ontario Securities Commission killed the company's $899 million takeover of Sears Canada. Ackman argued that Sears Canada was worth at least twice what Lampert offered.

Indications from Ackman's comments is that he will not take a combative activist bent with the Sears investment and will look at it as more of a partnership.

This is a followup to my 2 posts yesterday at 11:30AM & 11:45AM. SHLD is currently at $142.77 with an intraday high of $144.19. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 10:46:04 AM

GoldCorp (GG) $30.02 +0.80% ... comes to WEEKLY Pivot ($30.11) after near kiss of WEEKLY S1 ($29.24)

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 10:44:45 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $72.47 +0.79% ($724.70) reversing morning gap low of $71.24.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 10:40:51 AM

Canada: Ivey PMI slid to 56.0 from 58.5. Forecast was 60.0

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 10:39:55 AM

Canada: Building Permints M/M were up 1.4% (forecast +1.5%) (previously -11.3%)

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 10:38:55 AM

ECB: Held Rates 4.00%

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 10:38:32 AM

BOE: Held Rates 5.75%

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 10:36:37 AM

The USDJPY has slipped to 116.40, testing support from 116.23-116.31 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 10:36:36 AM

ECB's Trichet: Upwards Risks To CPI Prevail

DJ- European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said Thursday that upward risks to price stability remain over the medium term, while money and credit growth remain vigorous.

He also said the ECB appreciates comments from the U.S. saying a strong dollar is important and favorable for that country's economy.

Speaking at a news conference after the ECB's rate-setting meeting, Trichet also said the ECB was monitoring price risks "very closely," and would act in a "firm and timely manner" on inflation risks.

In the introductory statement after the ECB governing council's meeting in Vienna, Trichet said a cross-check of monetary and economic analyses "confirmed the existence of upside risks to price stability over the medium term, against the background of good economic fundamentals in the euro area."

However, he notably omitted any claim that the ECB's monetary policy is "accommodative," a term used in introductory statements since the ECB began tightening interest rates in December 2005. "We haven't mentioned accommodative," Trichet said in response to a reporter's question. But, he urged against leaping to hasty conclusions. "If we would have liked to mention 'appropriate,' we would have done that, we didn't do that," he said. "If we would have loved to say 'neutral,' we would have done that, we didn't do that," Trichet said. The ECB is prepared to defend stable inflation, he said. "Accordingly, and with money and credit growth vigorous in the euro area, our monetary policy stands ready to counter upside risks to price stability, as required by our primary objective," Trichet said. The ECB left all its policy rates unchanged, as expected, with the main refinancing minimum bid rate at 4.00%. This was in line with the market's expectations, as 53 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires unanimously expected the ECB to keep its key policy rate unchanged. Trichet said it was necessary to gather new data for policy conclusions, adding that upside risks to price stability are on the ECB's radar screen. Pointing out that heightened uncertainty was the baseline scenario, Trichet said the ECB was paying "great attention" to financial market developments and "particular caution" was needed, given financial market conditions. "Consequently, the Governing Council will monitor very closely all developments," Trichet said. "On the basis of our assessment, and by acting in a firm and timely manner, we will ensure that risks to price stability over the medium term don't materialize and that medium and long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored in line with price stability, which is all the more important in the current context." In September, inflation for the first time in more than a year rose above the ECB's definition of price stability. Driven by higher energy and food prices, the inflation rate surged to 2.1% in September from 1.7% in August. Trichet said the euro-zone's inflation will remain above 2.0% through early 2008 and likely be around 2% on average next year. Trichet confirmed that economic growth in the euro zone would continue at a "sustained" rate in the third and fourth quarters of the year, noting that while confidence indicators may have sagged recently, they are still above historic levels. As for 2008, economic outlook for growth was around potential. He added he expects emerging economies to offset weakness from the U.S. economy and that the external environment is supportive of growth, while long-term economic growth risks are on the downside. Answering reporters' questions about exchange rates, Trichet said the euro's exchange rate is a parameter for monetary policy and verbal discipline on this issue is "very important." "I have already qualified what I can say about the dollar, the yen and the yuan and I stick to what I have said, which has a meaning," Trichet said. "When I say that we appreciate what the (U.S.) Secretary of the Treasury and our colleagues in the U.S. say on the strong dollar being important and favorable to the U.S. economy it means something," Trichet said. The euro set a record high of above $1.42 earlier this week, a level that has added to concern. The new record was partly a result of narrowing interest rate differential between the euro zone and the U.S. Monday, Trichet said the ECB is paying "extreme attention" to remarks by U.S. officials that a strong dollar is good for the U.S. "As you know on the yen I have already mentioned the fact that the markets should progressively take into account the better fundamentals in the Japanese economy," Trichet said at the press conference Thursday. Turning to all currencies, including those in emerging markets in Asia, Trichet said "the fact that more flexibility would be in both their interests and in the interests of the global economy is something that is in our own message." He also stressed that excessive volatility on exchange markets is destructive. At their last meeting in Washington in April, Group of Seven industrial nations' finance ministers and central bankers stuck to their Boca Raton statement on foreign currencies from 2004, saying "excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates are undesirable for economic growth."

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 10:34:53 AM

I forgot to report on the typical 9:40 Fed announcement on repos. The Fed announced a repo in the amount of $24.000 billion to add to the previous $4.000 billion announced earlier. Since $29.250 billion matured today, that leaves a net drain of $1.250 billion for the day, so far.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 10:33:03 AM

So far today, the SPX has been finding support on 15-minute closes on the Keltner line (120-ema) now at 1537.87. So far, it's been finding resistance on 15-minute closes at the Keltner line (45-ema) now at 1540.92. Although, at 1541.51, it's just pushed past this, it hasn't closed a 15-minute period above it.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 10:31:08 AM

I used to use Ninja Trader for order placement to an Interactive Broker account but since I switched to a TS brokerage I use their matrix which is very similar to NT. The Matrix allows you to put in OSO orders and if you daytrade I would HIGHLY suggest using them.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 10:30:59 AM

Another preview from the Wrap tonight, this on the report on Commercial Paper:
The Federal Reserve issued its weekly report on commercial paper for the week ending yesterday. Commercial paper is issued by corporations to fund their needs. It was shunned during the credit crunch. Now, for the first time in eight weeks, outstanding paper increased. Outstanding paper climbed a modest 0.2 percent, however, and remains 16 percent below its early August high.

Outstanding asset-backed paper, the component that includes mortgage-backed paper, declined by 0.7 percent, but that was the smallest decline since early August. This type of commercial paper has slipped 23 percent from its peak.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 10:28:52 AM

Well that was enough fun for the day.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 10:27:43 AM

TS is up on the West coast now but still down on the East coast. Oh I am so glad I use OSO orders.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 10:24:32 AM

F5 Networks (FFIV) $41.16 +2.95% Link ... X gets the square.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 10:24:10 AM

This just in from TS "Currently, we are experiencing an issue affecting the delivery of real-time data. We are working to resolve this issue as quickly as possible. We will be sending an update when we have more information." DUH!!!!!

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 10:19:47 AM

TKS Keene.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 10:19:25 AM

I have eSignal up now and I do see YM has been in rally mode.

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 10:17:35 AM

Jane, the market is bouncing a little, YM 14050 and about to go flat.

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 10:17:33 AM

QQQQ $51.58 -0.13% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 10:17:08 AM

TRINQ 2.06 ... strong attempt to sell here.

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 10:16:32 AM

A key level I think for SPX is 1533. In its pullback pattern, two equal legs down from yesterday's mid-day high would drop price to that level. If it were to drop to there and find support I'd be a buyer. If it breaks down below that level I'd be a seller on bounces. In the meantime watch out for chop.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 10:16:11 AM

I use OSO orders (order sends orders) so as soon as I enter a trade I have my limit and stop placed so I am OK - hopefully.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 10:15:25 AM

CAn someone give me quote on YM since my trading strategy has me short YM?

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 10:14:27 AM

Most of my trading buddies use Tradestation which is good when talking about strategies etc. but not good when the platform goes down.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 10:13:27 AM

TRadestation has just quit working. It is not just me but all the traders I interact with throughout day are dead in the water as well.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 10:11:30 AM

Here are the overnight charts and just like clockwork the S&P futures find support at its ON lows. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 10:11:04 AM

Manpower (MAN) $68.14 +1.05% ....

Jeff Bailey : 10/4/2007 10:08:09 AM

10:03 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 10:08:01 AM

Here's another conundrum for you after you've built your scenario for today and tested it against what's happening. If you believe that the SPX could be working its way toward a test of the 10-sma, as I've been proposing as a possibility since Monday's close, what are you going to do when that 10-sma test occurs? Will you go long?

I won't be, because that's not the kind of trader I am now (I've been using this week's gains to swing into some bear call spreads for November), but I've been wondering what I would have done if I were still swing or day trading. Here's the problem in going long, even if you believe that all is hunky-dory and the SPX has successfully reinstituted its old pattern and it will climb into eternity: it's been a long, long time since it's touched the bottom or even the midline of the rising channel it began establishing as it climbed off the summer low. Excluding the lower shadows off the 8/16 and 9/10 lows, the lower channel line is formed off the 8/15, 8/29, 9/07 and 9/11 lows, so it has many touchpoints and should be a valid trendline. It now crosses at about 1500. The midline crosses at about 1531, if I'm eyeballing it correctly.

If momentum is extremely strong and the SPX is about to go parabolic, as it might do if it breaks above the July highs, it might not ever retrace to the midline or bottom of that channel, but in the normal course of events, we should assume that channel boundaries will hold (until they break) and that the SPX will eventually need to pull back to the midline at least to recharge, if not all the way to the bottom of the channel.

So will the next 10-sma test fail to produce a sustainable bounce and will this be the time instead that the SPX retraces further? Of course, I have no way of knowing that. Here's how I'd be looking at it, though. If the SPX plunges hard through the 10-sma, I of course would not step in with an automatic long order at that 10-sma, but instead would watch the SPX's behavior at either the midline or the lower line. However, if it plunges down to the 10-sma and momentarily stops there, you have a problem. If you believe upside momentum remains strong and all the indicators you favor suggest that a 10-sma entry is indicated, then give it a try, but know ahead of time that an initial bounce could get reversed as the SPX rolls down toward the midline or bottom of the channel. Be ready to step right back out. Do not follow to the bottom of the channel with a long options position, especially with a front-month (October) call.

I'm absolutely not advocating an automatic 10-sma bullish entry. I don't know how things will be set up, and I honestly feel that the SPX, even if it remains on a bullish tract, is way, way overdue for a bottom-of-the-channel test. Momentum is a funny thing, though. What I am advocating is that you start thinking about this ahead of time, that you set up the parameters that have to be in place before you would even consider such an entry and that you stick to your plan, whatever that is.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 10:07:20 AM

VIX to new daily lows now - bears beware.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 10:06:48 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- ETFs have been playing the role of star in the investment world, so it should come as no surprise that exchanges are rolling out the red carpet instead of merely laying out a welcome mat.

Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. on Thursday said it's launched the Nasdaq ETF Market, designed specifically for exchange-traded funds and other index-linked investments.

The new market is intended to support ETFs "particularly during their critical period of incubation" and help them "develop into established, liquid products," said John Jacobs, executive vice president, in a statement.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 10:04:32 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - New orders for U.S.-made factory goods dropped 3.3% in August, led by a decline in demand for transportation equipment, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

It was the largest decline in factory orders in seven months and follows a revised 3.4% gain in July.

Orders for durable goods fell 4.9% in August, unrevised from the initial estimate released late last month.

Orders for nondurable goods fell 1.6%.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 10:03:07 AM

Now I see the USDJPY making new daily highs but as Linda has been warning - this internal may quit working at any time so I do not put as much emphasis on it as I do the others.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 10:00:02 AM

The entire time ES (S&P futures) was falling the VIX never made a new daily high. This is a huge "Bears beware."

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 9:58:22 AM

Here's an update on the SPX 30-min chart where I've got the EW labels, including on the MACD, to see if this plays out like I think it will. The consolidation pattern calls for another leg down and I'm wondering if it will happen relatively quickly or instead be a long drawn out relatively flat day before completing the pullback. If it's going to be drawn out, which wouldn't surprise me, then go find a book to read and come back tomorrow morning. But if it drops down this morning then we could get the rally started before tomorrow morning: Link

The downside target for SPX by this pattern and uptrend line is in the 1535-1536 range which is not a lot of movement from where it's currently trading. And it very likely will not be a straight line down to there. It will be more like watching a drunk stagger home after the bar closes at 2:00 AM.

If SPX drops sharply through 1535 then I'll start to think something more bearish may have started but just be careful of a head fake break. The reason for taking a breakdown seriously is because of the possibility that Monday's high was the end of the rally and we've started the next leg down and a break of what looks like a bull flag would likely catch many traders leaning the wrong way.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 9:55:33 AM

SPX support continues to hold. Link

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 9:53:19 AM

The VIX is still telling me the bears do not have control.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 9:51:44 AM

AD line has now fallen to under 0 and my idea that it would trade to over +1000 soon after the open was wrong. I feel like singing the Patsy Cline song "I was wrong, oh so wrong, please accept my apologizes."

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 9:47:59 AM

S&P futures are continuing to make new daily lows and the VIX is climbing but not to new daily highs so I still think the market will turn around soon. But, you know, I have been known to be wrong before LOL.

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 9:45:45 AM

Looking at price action since Monday I can't seem to get that song "Stuck in the Middle with You" out of my head.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 9:38:00 AM

VIX is falling to new daily lows as the S&P futures make new daily lows as well. This is the kind of divergences you will be looking for to tell you to get long.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 9:37:38 AM

What's your scenario for today? Mine is that the SPX may experience another of the choppy consolidation days in its gain-big, consolidate-several-days, dip-to-the-10-sma pattern. I noted yesterday before the close that this could be one of the up days in that pattern.

What does formulating such a scenario do for us today? Well, it tells bulls that they have a problem. In the old rally days, the SPX usually went about 5-7 days between touches of the 10-sma, but if momentum was particularly strong, the SPX could break higher again before touching it and go 10-12 days. It wasn't the typical pattern, but it happened often enough that it wasn't unusual.

So, my general supposition is that the SPX is headed sideways and that it will soon dip, perhaps within a day or two, to the 10-sma. That would stop me personally from entering any short-tern bullish plays, but there's that catch. This could be the time that the SPX goes 10-12 days. I don't believe it's the most likely scenario and in fact believe that short-term bulls better do what short-term bears needed to do yesterday, and that's be quick to take profits and/or guard those profits very carefully. However, further gains must be acknowledged as a possibility, even if I don't think it's the most probable outcome, based on the SPX's pattern.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 9:34:11 AM

AD line is now +599 and climbing.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 9:25:25 AM

The US$ is now spiking up with a corresponding spike down in Gold.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 9:24:47 AM

Still ahead is the latest reading on factory orders, with economists polled by MarketWatch expecting August factory orders to fall 2.6% following a 3.7% rise in the previous month.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 9:24:10 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell early Thursday, coming under selling pressure as the dollar gained against other major currencies.

Gold for December delivery fell $5.70 at $730 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"A third day of price declines was in the making in gold as the US dollar gained ground and reached 78.50 on the index overnight," said Jon Nadler, a senior analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, in a research note.

On Wednesday, gold ended down 60 cents at $735.70 an ounce.

On the currency markets, the dollar was steady against the euro and the yen, with the European currency adding 0.1% at $1.4106 after the European Central Bank left interest rates on hold as expected.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 9:23:02 AM

To further bolster my theory that once Crude falls it will no longer exert the kind of force over Gold that it has for the last few weeks, overnight Crude traded under $80.00/bl and Gold and the US$ were almost mirror images of one another. Link

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 9:18:54 AM

The market's overnight session was bullish although no market broke its previous day highs. I suspect the AD line will open above 0 and shortly thereafter it will get above +1000. Sorry for talking about this so much but I really do think the market needs to retrace before it continues this rally but the daily charts from yesterday suggest that is not going to happen just yet. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 9:15:05 AM

Sneak preview of part of my Wrap from tonight:
Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) announced the expected decisions this morning. Both kept rates steady. Although market watchers anticipated these decisions, they weren't without controversy. In the U.K. in the aftermath of the Northern Rock debacle, the rates at which banks loan each other money remained at historic highs when compared to the central bank's base rate. Some accuse the central bank of being behind the curve, in a claim that should be familiar to U.S. market participants. Others think that a rate cut might have incited panic.

The Bank of England doesn't typically release a statement with its decision, and I didn't find one this morning. The ECB does usually release a statement and, in addition, its head Claude Trichet usually holds a press conference. Although many market watchers anticipate that the BOE will eventually cut rates, there's nothing cut and dried about the ECB's eventual decision. Until the sub-prime crisis began to spread and even for a while after, the ECB kept affirming its intention to raise rates. Rising inflation in Europe keeps that possibility alive, which has probably been one of the drivers behind the euro's steep rise against the dollar, at least until the last few days produced a sharp pullback.

ECB head Trichet's press conference has not taken place yet, I don't believe.

Keene Little : 10/4/2007 9:12:56 AM

Equity futures got a nice little bounce off the lows around 4:00 AM and are near their highs currently. But even a small gap up this morning will still leave prices within the recent trading range and I'm not sure the rally will continue this morning. We could get another pullback as part of the consolidation pattern so continue to exercise caution in this choppy environment until we either get a breakout or breakdown.

Jane Fox : 10/4/2007 9:10:08 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time filings for state unemployment benefits rebounded in the latest week after tumbling to their lowest level since mid-May a week ago, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Initial claims rose by 16,000 to 317,000 in the week ending Sept. 29, marking their highest level since Sept. 8.

The four-week moving average of new claims for the week ended Sept. 29, meanwhile, rose by 500 to 312,750, the highest since Sept. 15.

The jobless claims figures reflect a bump in layoffs. They come a day ahead of the September payroll report, which will be watched closely by Fed policymakers. The August report showed a much weaker-than-expected 4,000 decline in payrolls.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 9:01:28 AM

Today, $29.250 billion in repos mature. The Fed has already announced a repo of $4.000 billion, leaving a net drain of $25.250 so far.

Linda Piazza : 10/4/2007 8:54:26 AM

As had been expected, both the ECB and Bank of England kept rates steady. For the last several days, the euro/dollar had dropped strongly off recent highs. After the announcement, the euro/dollar, which had been gaining off the 12:30 am low of 1.4078, dropped again, to a new daily low of 1.4068. It's at 1.4075 as I type.

Market Monitor Archives