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Keene Little : 10/10/2007 11:26:20 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

The DOW and SPX say short me and NDX says don't you dare. The RUT says whatever. A market turn is never a clear setup and it's certainly no different now. I do see the possibility for the market to chop its way a little higher but I also see some very clear bearish divergences now across the board. The only question is when it will matter.

The DOW broke its uptrend line from Sept 25th, climbed back above and closed below. The bulls need to rally this immediately on Thursday to save it: Link

SPX might have made a double top on Thursday at the potentially important 1563-1565 level. Again, the bulls need to immediately rally this higher to save it (in which case I'll be watching for a choppy rise that will indicate a small ending pattern to finish the rally maybe as high as 1575 over the next day or two): Link

NDX is in a strong rally and is showing almost nothing bearish. The only thing right now is the bearish divergence that's starting to sneak in on its recent highs: Link

The RUT appears to have been consolidating the past few days and looks like it could press higher. Keep an eye on the 850-852 level if it presses higher. Otherwise a pullback to the 825 area could be next. Link

The market is throwing off a bunch of bearish signals so it's risky on the long side but until we get some key levels broken to the downside stay aware that this is a bullish market. When it changes it could change on a dime and swiftly. We're now close to the point where surprises will likely be to the downside. Tread (trade) carefully.

OI Technical Staff : 10/10/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 5:59:03 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 5:32:21 PM

S&P: Molina To Replace Keystone Auto in SmallCap 600 Friday

DJ- Standard & Poor's said Wednesday that Molina Healthcare Inc. (MOH) will replace Keystone Automotive Industries Inc. (KEYS) in the S&P SmallCap 600 Friday.

LKQ Corp. (LKQX) plans to acquire Keystone.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 5:29:41 PM

UAW Saying It Agrees To Tentative Contract With Chrysler

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 5:28:49 PM

UAW Ratifies Contract With GM

DJ- The United Auto Workers union said Wednesday that it has ratified a historic four-year contract with General Motors Corp. (GM).

Earlier, UAW Local 276 said on its Web site that 66% of union assembly workers approved the deal, while 64% of skilled trade wokers had done so.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 5:26:47 PM

US Junk Debt: High Yield Unbowed By UAW Strike, Stock Woes

DJ- Junk bonds proved resilient Wednesday, holding steady despite a down day for stocks, a strike at a Detroit auto maker and downgrades by all three major ratings agencies of TXU Corp. (TXU) in the lead-up to its leveraged buyout.

The junk bond market was mostly unchanged on the day, according to Brian Hessel at Stonegate Capital Partners, while the high-yield CDX credit derivatives index was up slightly in the afternoon at 100.75.

Hessel said that some bonds in the casino sector fell on weak results, while retail bonds were also down slightly in advance of new retail sales data on Thursday.

TOUSA Inc. (TOA) bonds, on the other hand, recouped some losses seen last month after company this week hired Lazard to review its capital structure, prompting speculation of a pending restructuring. TOUSA's 9% notes due 2010 gained 1.4 points to 68.1 in active trade, according to MarketAxess.

Late Tuesday, Standard & Poor's downgraded TXU and its unregulated subsidiaries to B- from BB, citing the more than $25 billion debt load the company will carry post-LBO. Also late Tuesday, Moody's Investors Service assigned a B2 corporate family rating to TXU and downgraded several classes of its existing debt.

Those downgrades come a day after Fitch Ratings cut the company's rating to B from BB+.

The downgrades didn't shake the junk bond market Wednesday, which was expecting the company to fall into junk with the heavy debt burden from its LBO. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. was expected to close its buyout of the energy company Wednesday.

TXU's loan CDS was trading at a midpoint of 278 basis points Wednesday, tighter than the midpoint of 285 basis points Tuesday, according to a market participant.

Meanwhile, several market participants said the United Auto Workers strike at Chrysler LLC didn't seem to be an immediate worry for the junk bond market.

Books were scheduled to close late Wednesday for Allison Transmission's planned $550 million offering of senior 8-year notes noncallable for four years. Price talk for the offering is in the area of 11.5%, according to a market participant, and the notes are expected to price Thursday.

Stocks fell Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 86 points to 14,079.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 4:55:48 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 4:13:49 PM

Economic reports for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. Expected: Unch. Previous: +16K.

8:30a.m. August Trade Deficit. Expected: +59.0B. Previous: $59.25B.

8:30a.m. Sep Import Prices. Expected: +1.0%. Previous: -0.3%.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 4:05:39 PM

After bouncing back above its broken uptrend line from Sept 25th the DOW closed back below it. That's still a bearish failed retest. A failure of SPX at a double top with negative divergences is bearish. One of these days this will catch up with the market. And you'll want to be short when it does.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 3:55:48 PM

The MID could not maintain levels above the 917.30 level, at least not yet. It's at 915.88 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 3:51:27 PM

All my ranting has been for the purpose of saying we can all recognize strong momentum. Don't fight it, but certainly, 100%, show some common sense and make plans for what signs you'll need to see to show that the temperament has changed, what you'll do as a result, and how you'll protect any profits that you have. I've been a bit cautious about suggesting that traders automatically buy a 10-sma test on the SPX or other indices because, although I certainly think there could be a bounce attempt from those levels, the SPX has moved so long without a mid-channel or a bottom-of-the-channel test that it just feels as if those are needed. Don't automatically jump on a 10-sma test if prices are crashing through it, for example. That's just common sense.

Parabolic upside breakouts do occur and might again--I have no way of knowing that--so include those possibilities, too, when you're planning, although that doesn't seem to be the highest probability next move.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 3:46:52 PM

For you futures traders, Japan's decision is scheduled to be released at 2:00 EST tonight. I don't know how regularly they release right on the scheduled time. I don't have information on Singapore's or Thailand's (if I'm right about Thailand's central bank also meeting) decisions will be released.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 3:44:15 PM

In all seriousness, Denise's question is a very good one. And the choppy price pattern we're seeing as the market chops its way higher is in fact an ending pattern from an EW perspective. The reason it gets so choppy and loses momentum (as can be seen in the lower oscillator highs) is because smart money is selling into each rally. It is in fact a sign of distribution and is not bullish. Where it will end is hard to say (duh).

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 3:42:57 PM

Oh, something else that I almost forgot. Unless I'm mistaken, tonight is the night that Japan, Singapore and Thailand's central banks announce their decisions. This can and probably will move currency pairs, and the result can impact equities. I of course have not been consulted by the central bankers in those countries and so can't say what they'll decide or how markets will interpret their decisions.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 3:41:34 PM

The SPX is again jammed up against the rising trendline that marks resistance on this climbing channel: Link A few weeks ago I said, while admitting that I was oh-so-wrong in 2003, that I didn't see signs of a V-shaped recovery in progress, and I'm wrong again as I was in 2003. However, in recent weeks, I haven't been saying anything particularly bearish. I have counseled that the SPX needed a pullback to the 10-sma and that, in fact, it was way overdue for a pullback to the midline or even the bottom of the channel to see if it holds as support. So, although I don't have a clue why markets should be zooming so high and I'm not so dumb that I'll ignore fundamentals, I'm more of a technical than a fundamental trader, and the rest of this post is based on technicals.

So, I'll say what I've said recently. The SPX is still overdue for a 10-sma test, which can be accomplished through sideways action while the 10-sma climbs up underneath it, as well as by an actual dip. Unless the SPX is going to blow through this channel, the longer it goes without a test, the more it needs one, if that makes sense. Momentum is strong. You don't need me to tell you that, and you don't need a trending RSI to tell you that, either. So, until that momentum wanes, dips will be minimal and they'll be bought, but the SPX either needs a strong breakout above this channel, going parabolic, or the repeated resistance tests are going to result in that needed pullback.

FWIW, today's candle will not be a bullish one unless the SPX gains so strongly in the last twenty minutes that the body of the candle eclipses the long lower shadow that today's dip has produced. To me, that corroborates the feeling that either more sideways action or a dip to the 10-sma is needed. Make up your own mind about whether to hold overnight, though, depending on what you hold, when it expires and how much profit you've already locked in.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 3:37:31 PM

is there a way BIG money could have engineered this rally to get out of dodge (sell into it) before the you know what (otherwise know as MUNG) hits the fan? what would be signs of that? Distribution, etc? Pontificate if you want on the monitor...:-)

Well, Denise, after carefully contemplating my navel on this important question, and finding nothing but "fuzzy" logic I am afraid I do not know the answer to your question. However, as you so eloquently stated, when the defecation hits the rotary oscillator, the bulls who are currently buying this will have, how should I delicately say this, a mess to clean up (their own).

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 3:29:33 PM

SPX retesting it previous high (with continuing bearish divergences) could be worth another attempt at scalping a short. Could it be a double-top here? It could be. Certainly the bearish divergences tell me not to even think about chasing this to the upside but to instead keep probing with a short play. Just keep taking profits regularly (glad I did earlier) until we get some better indications that a top is in and then you can start getting a little more aggressive.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 3:29:03 PM

As I said earlier today at one point, it seems silly to talk about resistance, but the SPX's 10-minute Keltner chart shows resistance at 1565.08 on 10-minute closes and then at 1566.35 on 10-minute closes. Over the last hour, it's been finding support on 10-minute closes on a Keltner line now at 1563.51, but the more important 9-ema is now down at 1561.80. The SPX is at 1564.56 as I type.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 3:26:30 PM

YM short stopped out at 14170. Worth a test but you can see why watching the other markets is helpful in trying to decide whether or not to try a trade. In this case the others were saying don't short this market here.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 3:17:21 PM

The MID is often a momentum index, too. At 916.99 currently, just down from 917.49 a few minutes ago, the MID is testing a 917.31 spike high from Monday and a 917.18 high from earlier today. It's attempting an upside breakout after producing a series of higher lows on its intraday charts over the last three days. That constitutes a possible bullish right triangle (flat top, rising support), but the MID needs to maintain a breakout, at least into the close. So far, it's not doing it. Bulls don't want to see the MID drop below about 911.90 on a 10-minute close. Bears, of course, don't want to see it maintain values above about 917.30.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 3:16:54 PM

Welcome to a blow-off top Linda. Momentum, which is waning, continues to carry the markets higher. But just like a bottle rocket when it squirts out the last of the water, this market better have a parachute for a soft landing (which I don't expect).

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 3:11:06 PM

Last night in his Wrap, Jim noted that earnings growth expectations for the quarter had dropped, so that analysts now anticipated zero profit growth. Bob P. was just on CNBC saying that he wouldn't be surprised if he didn't wake up tomorrow and find out the expectation was for a decline in earnings. So, remind me why exactly are markets, both here and across the globe, at or near six-year highs? I profess, I'm confused. While some are bullish and some are bearish, there's just something very confusing about what's going on, at least to me, and I'm not sure what to think. Do we (meaning, the conglomerate of market participants) feel that the worst has been priced in and the government did a good job of averting a worse disaster? Are we assured that the global marketplace will make up for any weakness domestically? Are we assured that financials are all standing on sturdy feet again?

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 3:10:26 PM

This is why I would have waited for support at $79.00 to break before shorting crude. Link

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 3:07:51 PM

This is not an ideal trade (shorting YM) if only because there's no confirmation from the others. After a clear 3-wave pullback in SPX, it is now challenging its high. While a pullback at the high would be natural, the larger pattern makes it look like new highs are on the way.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 3:05:47 PM

DOW/YM is now hitting its broken uptrend line from Sept 25th. It's a good spot to try a short (YM 14150), tight stop above (14170).

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 3:03:39 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 2:52:53 PM

So much for another small leg down. The DOW has now overlapped the bottom of what I had labeled as wave-(i) of wave-c (at 14053 just past 12:00) so that violates the wave count I showed on the 5-min chart. This is very typical on the very small timeframe charts and a reason I don't trust the counts for the "one more high/low". Backing out slightly and looking at the 60-min chart gives me more of an appearance of an impulsive move in the making as long as it doesn't rally back up to this morning's first low (14089): Link

For this impulsive count on the 30-min chart the current bounce is the 4th wave and we need a 5th wave down to finish it. Assuming for the moment the bounce will finish with a retest of its broken uptrend line around 14080 (can't go much higher) I show a projection for the 5th wave where it will equal the 1st wave at 14002. That 5th wave should show a bullish divergence against the wave-3 low and would have me buying it for a scalp long at least. Let's first see if it fails at or below 14080 (try a short there).

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 2:50:23 PM

With or without the TRAN's help, the SPX has broken above a descending trenldine off yesterday's high. I guess the GS news was good news somehow? Anyway, the SPX needs to confirm the breakout by moving above the most recent swing high at 1562.74 and staying above it, with the SPX now at 1562.11.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 2:49:09 PM

Swing trade call alert! ... for one (1) of the SanDisk SNDK Nov. $50 Calls (SWF-KJ) at the offer of $4.60.

SNDK $51.20 -0.07% ...

No stop for now, target $64.

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 2:35:33 PM

Looks like the VIX did it again and called the bottom. Ya gotta love the VIX!!!

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 2:26:39 PM


DJ- Goldman Sachs says the size of its level 3 assets, those that trade so infrequently that there is virtually no reliable market prices for them, at the end of its fiscal 3Q amounted to $72.05 billion, or 7% of total assets.

GS $235.36 -1.60% ...

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 2:25:02 PM

If I switch to a 10-minute Keltner chart on the TRAN, the downside target is a more reasonable 4885.86, as long as 10-minute closes stay below the 9-ema, now a 4971.37. The TRAN is at 4912.94 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 2:21:34 PM


DJ- Energy services provider posts a profit of $54.6 million, or 67c a share. Excluding the firm's Westinghouse unit, net income is 60c a share. Analysts expected EPS of 34c. Revenue jumps 31% to $1.6 billion.

SGR $65.80 +8.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 2:19:36 PM


DJ- Shares jump 9% after warehouse retailer posts stronger-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, which were affected by a change in how the retailer records membership revenue.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 2:18:57 PM


DJ- Securities and Exchange Commission says it has reached an $8 million settlement with hedge fund adviser Sandell Asset Management over improper short sales made in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 2:18:14 PM


DJ- Federal Reserve injects a very large $16 billion into the financial system as the central bank battles to get the Fed funds rate back to its target level. The Fed funds rate has been consistently above the 4.75% target in recent days.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 2:17:35 PM

I was wondering if the market does continue down here, would Friday's gap be the most likely spot for a bounce once filled?

Gaps are always good to watch for support and resistance since so many traders watch them and trade them. Those who got caught going the wrong way with a gap, such as being short and getting caught with the gap up, then use the closing of the gap as their chance to get out and create buying pressure there. It's the "thank you God" trade as they promise themselves (again) never to let the market move that much against them again (until the next time they can't bear to take a loss on their play).

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 2:17:21 PM


DJ- Oil companies say higher oil prices and slowing fuel demand are squeezing margins, with Chevron expecting 3Q earnings to be significantly lower than prior quarter. Valero is projecting earnings from continuing operations of $1.25 to $1.35 a share. Wall Street expects 3Q EPS of $1.91.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 2:15:26 PM

Carrizo Oil (CRZO) $48.44 -0.24% ... KeyBanc cuts to "hold" from "buy"

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 2:10:26 PM

Following up on the a-b-c wave relationships, the DOW 5-min chart shows the potential pattern for the move down from yesterday afternoon. It has been weaker than the others and by the Fib projection off the 1st leg down (wave-A) you can see it found temporary support around equality at 14049: Link

It then tipped over and that had me looking for a potential move to the 162% projection at 14002. Just another reason why DOW 14K could be solid support. I also show the 5-wave count for wave-C (c-waves are always 5-wave moves) and by that count I'm looking for one more new low. We might not get it but that's the setup. Then we'll see if support holds there.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 2:08:17 PM

Reader Question/Observation: Is the recent cross of the 50-ema below the 200-ema on the transports meaningful and telling?

Response: I do like to watch moving-average (sma or ema) crossovers as corroboration, but there's a problem with moving-average crossovers that should be acknowledged. They can occur late in a move. I sometimes, like this subscriber, prefer to use the -ema's, because their weighting of more recent data sometimes produces quicker crossovers. Of course, quicker is paid back by being less reliable at times.

At least according to my charts, the 50-ema's crossover of the 200-ema on the TRAN's chart occurred on 9/18 and 9/19, which begs the question of whether it was just showing us what we already knew: that the TRAN had had a very bad time through the summer, along with everything else.

Having cut my technical-analysis teeth by reading Pring's TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EXPLAINED, I like to look for longer-term outlook at the 10-week sma and 30-week -sma's, as he advised doing in that book. The 10-week crossed the 30-week a little earlier, the week of 8/27. It hasn't crossed back yet.

My interpretation? This corroborates what we've seen--the TRAN's failure to recapture even 50% of its losses on anything other than a momentum-driven and fleeting moment fails to give an impression of recovery, doesn't it? We have to let price be the final determinant, of course. So, I don't tend to use -sma or -ema crossovers as any kind of leading indicator but rather as corroboration of what other methods have already shown me.

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 2:05:14 PM

I was wondering if the market does continue down here, would Friday's gap be the most likely spot for a bounce once filled?

Here is a chart of the SPX and I expect (hope for) a retracement at least back to the 1540. I think a healthier retracement would be to the 1500 but then of course all the bears would be out in full force and well you know the rest. Link

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 1:59:56 PM

Is the recent cross of the 50ema below the 200ema on the transports meaningful and telling?

Many fund managers use this as an intermediate sell signal (or buy signal in reverse). Obviously it's more meaningful on the broader indices, especially by those who pooh-pooh DOW Theory (it still works but is not a good timing tool).

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 1:57:41 PM

Keene, you often reference "two equal legs" either up or down. Why is this so significant? Thanks.

The majority of the time the market is in a correction. It's either correcting a recent impulsive move up or down. In fact the market is probably in a correction 80% of the time. It's the old 80/20 rule. How many times have we seen a quick move followed by consolidation? You get the idea.

Corrective wave patterns are typically a-b-c moves, e.g., wave-a up, wave-b pullback to correct wave-a and then wave-c up. Very often wave-a will equal wave-c and is the most common wave relationship (the other two common wave relationships are wave-c = 62% of wave-a and wave-c = 162% of wave-a). Therefore I always watch for "two equal legs" up (or down) as it typically will give you a reversal. It can make for some very good trade entries (and exit targets).

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 1:55:49 PM

The SOX is sitting on its 200-ema and perhaps dropping toward its 200-sma. Those are at about 490 and 488.08, respectively, with the SOX at 489.67 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 1:49:04 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link


Established stop for the IHH-KN at $159.00 in the underlying.

Bullish 1/4 position in NVR ($10,000 * 0.25 = $2,500.00) then $2,500 / $478 = 5.23, or 5 shares.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 1:47:09 PM

The USDJPY is at 116.98, having broken through the 117.00-117.10 potential support zone. Earlier today, the USDJPY did confirm that H&S that I mentioned on that chart, but then levels immediately became more volatile, jumping around a bit, so that the confirmation was not entirely trustworthy. Equity bulls want to see this currency pair stay above the 116.70-116.80 zone.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 1:44:35 PM

I'm turning back to the SPX's 10-minute chart as it still seems to fit best this week. Typically, I prefer a 15-minute one to get an intraday look at how things look. Here's what's going on. Since Thursday afternoon, the SPX has been finding support on central channel support (120-ema) on that chart, on 10-minute closes. It's been tested multiple times, including just now on the SPX. That average is now at 1555.40. This test, like the one yesterday afternoon about 1:20-1:40, was attended by an RSI that was then below 30, showing a potential overextension to the downside.

So, a bounce attempt could perhaps have been anticipated. There's further support just below, too, at 1553.86 on 10-minute closes.

However, there's resistance, too, of course, at 1557.47 and then at 1558.34-1559.54 on 10-minute closes. The TRAN just isn't lending any support to the idea of strong gains on the SPX, OEX and Dow, although that's not always a trustworthy barometer. I sure would want to see the SPX climb above the next resistance level and show some sustainability above it before I counted on too much of a bounce.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 1:35:58 PM

If we get a small consolidation here followed by another leg down then it will be time to monitor the level where the drop will have two equal legs down from yesterday's high. That would be at ES 1563.75.

But SPX has already achieved that target at 1555.80 and another reason why the 1556 level is important. Looking at the cash index, keep an eye on its downtrend line from this morning's high, currently near 1559. Actually the low at 1558 should not be violated if there's another leg down coming. If we get another leg down then SPX 1552 will the next potential support level.

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 1:33:33 PM

ES continues to make new daily lows and I continue to believe this is the bottom.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 1:31:09 PM

I did peel a little bit of my profits off the table here at ES 1566 and will let the rest ride for now. I'm tired of giving profits back. This will of course ensure the market free falls from here but that'll be OK for the rest of my position.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 1:27:38 PM

Without a quick move up, the TRAN is setting a potential downside target near 4841.50 on the 15-minute Keltner chart. With the TRAN at 4910.59 as I type, though, it's hard to believe that round-number support at 4900, the 10-sma just a few points below the current level, or something won't stop that precipitous drop. However, unless the TRAN closes this 15-minute period above 4918.37, that's what will be set up on Keltners, and the TRAN has dropped further while I typed.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 1:19:52 PM

SPX's uptrend line from Sept 25th is currently near 1556 which coincides with the July high. Between this level and DOW 14K I'd be surprised if that support doesn't hold for at least a bounce. It would be a good area to take some profits on your short play and even think about trying the long side.

I'm going to be watching carefully to see if I want to try a long there. In the meantime I'm pulling my stop down to trail it just above the downtrend line from yesterday which is currently just below ES 1570.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 1:18:32 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 1:18:11 PM

I am going against my motto though am I not? But you don't see the VIX and ES out of sync very often and when you do you have to take advantage of it.

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 1:15:33 PM

ES is now making a new daily low but the VIX is NOT making a new daily high; heck it is not even near its daily high. This could be a very good time to try a long because ES will not follow through on those new daily lows.

For scaplers only!!

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 1:15:12 PM

A break below DOW 14K would go a long way towards saying we've seen our top. The only other potentially bullish pattern at that point would be a larger pullback that leads to one more new high later next week perhaps. But that kind of move could mean at least a pullback to the 13800 area first. So short will be the right place to be under 14K and hopefully the downside pattern would clear up in the meantime. I suspect 14K will be some good support so be careful if you're short.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 1:11:33 PM

The TRAN is still sinking. Monday's intraday low was 4914.33, and the TRAN is now at 4918.83.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 1:06:27 PM

TRAN at 4922.37, hitting the 200-ema. SPX, OEX and Dow bulls would prefer to see the TRAN bounce now. Bears, the opposite.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 1:02:50 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 12:57:19 PM

The TRAN has turned down all day and is as I type at 4929.79, just a few cents off the day's low. It's rolled down from the 200-sma toward the 200-ema, with that currently at 4922.54. The 200-ema has been support (as has the 72-ema, just a few points above) on daily closes, so this has the potential to be strong support for the TRAN. If it isn't support on a daily close, if the TRAN closes beneath it, the TRAN will have broken this week's consolidation pattern to the downside.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 12:52:51 PM

The DOW broke to a new low just as I sent the previous post.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 12:52:24 PM

The little bounce in the DOW looks corrective and should lead to another leg down. If it does then the uptrend line will be a confirmed break. That would be bearish but not a bull-killer, yet.

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 12:48:40 PM

Here are how the markets are trading in relation to their previous day ranges. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 12:46:04 PM

Swing trade filled alert! for 1/4 NVR at $477.40.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 12:36:59 PM

DJUSHB 389.23 +1.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 12:35:44 PM

Swing trade long alert! ... for 1/4 position in shares of homebuilder NVR, Inc. (AMEX:NVR) $475.94 -1.96%. LIMIT $478.

Stop goes $452.50. Target a bounce to $555.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 12:35:30 PM

Today's pullback (even in NDX now) is only a 3-wave affair and as such it's just a correction so far. Bears should stay vigilant here for another run back up. Bulls also need to be wary here--the weakening rally could stop at any time. In the meantime both sides need to remain cautious about the potential for a choppy rally.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 12:22:51 PM

Keltner resistance coupled with an RSI near 70 did suggest that further upside would be capped and now the SPX has drifted down toward that 1157.38 (45-ema) support. With RSI flattening near 50, no particular short-term outlook is given preference over another, so it's difficult to ascertain whether this support will hold on this test.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 12:17:04 PM

The DOW has now undercut its uptrend line by about the same amount as it's previously done. Watch for the possibility of a quick reversal back up. If it doesn't, well, I do hear the fat lady warming up.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 12:11:11 PM

Boeing (BA) $98.97 -2.45% ... would take a trade at $94 to generate a reversing lower double bottom sell signal. Bullish support trend at $88.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 12:11:03 PM

While the DOW is weaker today it is now approaching its uptrend line from Sept 25th (near 14067). This should be an important trend line for the DOW.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 12:10:04 PM

Boeing Delays First 787s by Six Months (update) ... AP Story Link

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 12:07:54 PM

Should have shorted YM instead of ES since the DOW is leading the way down.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 12:04:05 PM

I thought that second attack on ES's gap was going to stop us out but the sharp pullback now says lower your stop to two ticks above the bounce so 1573.75. I want to manage this one more closely since I'm not yet convinced we've seen the highs.

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 11:57:15 AM

The VIX and S&P futures are out of sync and that is usually gives us a very good trading opportunity. Notice how ES tagged its daily highs but the VIX did not confirm it with a tag of daily lows? That was telling you those daily highs would didn't have a chance of follow through. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 11:44:49 AM

BA is #2 weighted in INDU/DIA/YM

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 11:44:20 AM

Boeing (BA) $99.96 -1.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 11:43:47 AM

VXO.X 16.14 +4.46% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 11:43:26 AM

DIA $141.04 -0.37% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 11:43:14 AM

Swing trade call exit alert! ... for the one (1) Dow Diamonds DIA Dec $144 Call (DAZ-LN) at the bid of $2.55.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 11:42:38 AM

As I suspected when the 15-minute 9-ema flattened, the SPX's 9-ema resistance was weakening. The SPX is currently testing resistance at 1563.03 on 15-minute closes with several minutes to go before the close of this period. Further resistance is at 1564.31, but it seems a little silly to talk about resistance, doesn't it?

I note that RSI has not yet risen above 70, although it's close to 70, at 64.62, so there could still be a little uumph left in this current short-term move, but maybe be a little cautious about bullish expectations, too.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 11:40:33 AM

NDX is making new highs and the bearish divergences at the new highs continue. The rally is clearly suffering from poor market breadth and is therefore not to be trusted. But price is king and trying to short that index is an exercise in frustration right now.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 11:39:27 AM

Boeing Dreamliner Deliveries Seen Delayed Until Late Nov/Dec 2008 ... BA $101.50 (unch)

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 11:26:42 AM

Dateline WSJ - Some Chrysler workers started to walk off the job at certain plants after a union deadline passed with no tentative agreement and contract talks continued.

As Chrysler LLC and the United Auto Workers closed in on the 11 a.m. EDT strike deadline, one key issue on the table was the auto maker's demand to sell or outsource its parts depot and transportation operations, people familiar with the talks said today.

The UAW doesn't feel it's getting adequate product promises -- or job security for core assembly line jobs -- in return. UAW officials in Detroit won't comment.

Chrysler negotiated with the UAW late into last night to hammer out a new labor contract that the auto maker hopes will give it significant savings.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 11:24:01 AM

The top of this morning's gap for ES is at 1552.75 which is also a 50% retracement of this morning's drop and 1572.50 it would be an a-b-c bounce with the 2nd leg up = 162% of the 1st leg up. So watch that area for a short play to set up. I'd use 1575 for a stop since any more back above 1574 would likely mean gap closure next.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 11:22:55 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 11:11:48 AM

After the sharp drop this morning (except for NDX which remains in lala land because of a few high flyers) we're seeing what looks like a sideways consolidation. Typically this points to lower lows so that's what I'm anticipating for now.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 11:03:14 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 11:00:09 AM

The USDJPY is most decidedly finding resistance on 15-minute closes at its 9-ema, currently at 117.11. The USDJPY is at 117.09 as I type, having just bounced from its test of Keltner support at 117.05. It's a stalemate now: 117.00-117.10 support against the descending 9-ema. Which will break?

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 10:57:21 AM

The SPX might still be closing 15-minute period beneath the 9-ema on that chart, but that 9-ema is flattening a bit as prices repeatedly test the resistance. That resistance is currently at about 1559.50 on 15-minute closes with the SPX currently at 1558.49. It looks to me as if the SPX would have to fall beneath next support, at 1556.55-1557.20 on 15-minute closes, to turn that 9-ema down. Otherwise, its resistance might be weakening. Next resistance is 1561.12.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 10:52:27 AM

Sector Status Changes ... Yesterday's action saw Dorsey/Wright's SOFTware sector bullish % achieve "bull confirmed" status.

RESTaurant reversed up from "bear confirmed" to "bear correction."

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 10:42:48 AM

So far, the SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is still holding on 15-minute closes, although the current 15-minute period still has a few minutes to run. After pushing above that average, now at 1559.72, the SPX has now dropped below it. If it closes this period below it, there's been no change in (short-term bearish) tenor and a push down toward 1556.48 might be possible. SPX at 1559.41 as I type. Further resistance at 1560.89 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 10:38:48 AM

EIA data delayed until tomorrow 10/11/2007 due to Columbus Day

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 10:36:14 AM

Mortgage Industry Production Profits Fell in 2006 ... MBA Study Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 10:35:04 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 10:34:30 AM

USDJPY at 117.14, trying to climb back above that descending trendline off Monday's high but not yet able to sustain values above it.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 10:32:04 AM

SPX is finding support at yesterday's early morning high. The DOW hasn't dropped to that level yet and the RUT broke below it marginally. NDX seems to be in a different pattern (and has been for some time). A break of that early morning high would tell me we either topped or we're only in the beginning of a choppy move higher for the next week. That's why caution is recommended for both sides here and why a break below the Monday/Tuesday lows is needed by the bears to confirm we've seen the high. Expect chop and whipsaws and trade accordingly for now (not my cup of tea).

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 10:28:25 AM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) $406.74 +2.09% ... breaks above September congesting high. All-time highs here.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 10:27:19 AM

For the last hour, the SPX's 15-minute 9-ema has been serving as resistance on 15-minute closes. That average is now at 1559.90 on 15-minute closes, with further resistance at 1560.62. If you want to assess whether there's been any change in tenor, catching the first signs, watch for a 15-minute close above those levels. SPX at 1559.52 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 10:24:58 AM

The USDJPY is at 117.07 as I type, testing Keltner and historical support, with historical S/R at 117.00-117.10. The currency pair has already fallen back behind the trendline off Monday's high, but not so far below it that we might not consider this part of a trendline test to see if it holds as support. So far, it doesn't appear to be, but if there's a strong bounce soon above about 117.15, matters will look different. Matters will also look very different if the USDJPY falls below 116.80, the low between Monday's high and this morning's pre-market peak, an equal-high test. That's something that equity bulls don't want to see happen.

So why did the Fed announce repos that amounted to a net add today, increasing the amount sloshing through the system and perhaps undermining dollar strength a bit, if all my possibly ignorant questionings and suppositions are right? Both the USDJPY and EURUSD showed some possible effects about that time (USDJPY sinking: EURUSD climbing). What's going on? Are liquidity concerns stronger today than concerns about the dollar? Maybe it's a mistake to concentrate too much on a single day's actions.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 10:24:36 AM

Mexico's Peso Opens 10.8420/Dlr Vs. 10.8190 Tuesday Close

DJ- Mexico's peso opened weaker on Wednesday as investors took profits following a rally on Tuesday. The peso was quoted in Mexico City as trading at 10.8420 to the U.S. dollar at 10:17 a.m. EDT, compared with MXN10.8420 at the open and Tuesday's close of MXN10.8190. Local brokerage firm Monex expects the peso to trade within a range of MXN10.80 and MXN10.85 during the session. In a note to investors, the brokerage said it sees the currency strengthening to around MXN10.75 in the short term, bolstered by slower-than-expected inflation in September. On Tuesday, the Bank of Mexico reported that the consumer price index rose 0.78% in September, bringing annual inflation down to 3.79% from 4.03% at the end of August. Core inflation was 0.24%, lowering the annual rate to 3.8% from 3.86%. Mexican investors are also looking at comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve released on Tuesday. The minutes of the Sept. 18 Fed meeting showed that policy makers' concerns about inflation had eased. However, the minutes failed to restore confidence that the Fed would cut rates again when they meet at the end of this month. Mexican financial markets often move in sync with markets in the U.S., Mexico's top trading partner. Government bonds were largely unchanged early Wednesday following a rally Tuesday that saw yields fall. The yield on 10-year bonds due 2016 fell one basis point to 7.82%. The yield on 20-year government bonds due 2024 rose one basis point to 7.85%.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 10:22:07 AM

New Divisors For Dow Jones Utility and Composite

DJ- Started at the opening of stock market trading today, the Dow Jones Utility Average and Composite Average are calculated with new divisors as a result of the following event:

An investor group led by KKR and TPG is to acquire TXU Corp. (TXU). TXU will be replaced by FPL Group, Inc. (FPL).

As a result, the divisors for the Dow Jones Utility Average change to 1.42340771 from 1.43423532 and the Dow Jones Composite Average to 0.761096211 from 0.762313865.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 10:15:49 AM

Goldcorp (GG) $31.52 +2.07% ... notable 52-weeker at the big board.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 10:14:59 AM

Here's the daily chart of the SPX I posted again late yesterday, showing that the SPX had again charged up to the top of the channel: Link It tossed aside its usual several-day consolidation pattern and again eschewed a 10-sma test and just charged higher again. However, part of pattern recognition is recognizing that something usual works until it stops working, as silly as that sounds. So, yesterday afternoon I wanted bulls to at least consider the possibility that top-of-the-channel resistance would hold again and plan accordingly. So, unless there's going to be a drive above the top of the channel--always a possibility but maybe not the highest probability--traders need to include the possibility of a 10-sma test over the next few days, one that now is becoming overdue.

Remember that such a test can be accomplished by prices moving essentially sideways, maybe even rising to test the rising trendline during the course of most days, while the 10-sma rises up underneath candles. So, bears, I'm not telling you to assume that a 10-sma test means a sudden fall today, this very day, to the 10-sma, which is currently at 1546.77. It could happen, of course, but 1552-1554 support should be assumed to be strong and requiring a cascading fall to fail.

Honestly, though, even within the context of prices well described by an ascending channel that's been rising since August, prices sure look due for a pullback at least to the midline of that channel if not to the bottom to recharge. Of course, I was saying that about a week ago, too, and look what's happened!

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 10:14:55 AM

Actually the AD volume ratio is making new daily lows as well as is the USDJPY. The only market out of sync is the DAX .

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 10:13:47 AM

VIX is making new daily highs and AD volume new daily lows so I don't care what the other internals are doing, this is bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 10:09:53 AM

Swing trade call establish stop alert ... for the Intercontinental Exchange ICE Nov. $170 Call (IHH-KN) at $159 in the underlying.

ICE $164.67 +0.66% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 10:05:01 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 10:01:16 AM

Subscriber Denise writes that crude inventories are delayed a day due to the holiday. That's the usual practice, but I wasn't sure this week.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 10:00:29 AM

Costco Wholesale (COST) $67.75 +7.01% ... hot early.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 9:59:32 AM

Hmm. The Fed has not allowed a net drain today. The Fed has instead announced a temporary open market operation, a repo, in the amount of $16.000 billion. Yesterday's $12.500 billion repo matured today, so that leaves a net add of $3.500. As a result of yesterday's and today's actions, the amount sloshing through the system (repos not yet matured) has again risen sharply and is now at $50.000 billion. Over the last couple of weeks, the amount sloshing through the system had dropped to nearer $30.000 billion most days.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 9:57:56 AM

The key levels for the bears are the Monday/Tuesday lows. Until those levels are taken out this market could continue to chop its way higher. I shorted yesterday's high (with a few puts) and we have a micro pullback in progress but it's very early. With yesterday's new highs it opened up several upside possibilities in the wave pattern, including just a small pullback and a minor new high before getting a larger pullback.

This is not a good time to bet the farm, in either direction. A better setup will come along and in the meantime we need to exercise patience and wait for it. I like the high yesterday in SPX but the other indices have me wondering. So if I miss THE high that's OK. There will be more than enough busses that come along to give us a ride south.

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 9:56:47 AM

AD line is now -778 and the VIX is making new daily lows. AD volume is also making new daily lows but the AD ratio is not. In any case the bears have the ball this morning.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 9:52:11 AM

Here's what I see on the SPX's 15-minute Keltner chart, FWIW: The SPX is currently testing what could be significant short-term support at 1560.15 on 15-minute closes. The 9-ema is just above though, at about 1561.00, so as the SPX bounces from that possibly significant support, it's got to close above that 9-ema, too, before we can safely say that it's held that support. Next resistance above that is currently at 1563.08 on 15-minute closes. So, short-term bears want to see the SPX close this 15-minute period below about 1560.15, hoping for a move down to 1557.98 or even 1556.22. Bulls want another push higher of course, but be very careful near 1563 if the SPX does bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 10/10/2007 9:51:55 AM

Sohu.com (SOHU) $42.87 +4.48% ... taking partial profits off the table.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 9:39:19 AM

Thanks, Keene. (9:32:10 post) Sometimes the TRAN does crazy things before the inventories number. If I was seeing crazy things on the TRAN this morning, I was wondering if I should discount it a bit due to the impending inventories number or it that was being delayed. I see no crazy things on the TRAN so far, though. For subscribers, what I do see is the TRAN hovering right at the 200-sma again today, trying to push above it but not being successful in staying above it yet.

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 9:34:29 AM

AD line opened at -235 and has fallen to -531.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 9:32:10 AM

Linda, I'm not sure about the crude inventory report. As far as I know it's still due today.

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 9:32:08 AM

During the overnight session last night (and I do count the overnight sessions where currency pairs are concerned, whenever either of the currency pair's equity markets are also open), the USDJPY broke above a descending trendline off Monday's 117.58 high. After retesting the trendline, the USDJPY rose to a high or 117.50 a couple of hours ago. Since then, it dropped right back to the trendline again, and it's now attempting to bounce up from that trendline. It's at 117.30 as I type. There's slght danger of a H&S formation forming with a neckline on that trendline, however. Because the breakout above the trendline looks as if it didn't actually occur until about the time the Nikkei closed and it's forming under significant resistance at about 117.80, I do give this formation a little more credence than I normally give such formations these days. That doesn't mean that it will confirm, but certainly does mean that it should be watched. Equity bulls want the USDJPY to climb back above 117.40 and stay there, and equity bears want it to drop below 117.00 and stay there.

Keene Little : 10/10/2007 9:30:47 AM

Was yesterday's rally the final leg up? It's obviously way too early to tell but I do like the Fib target that SPX hit, especially 1563. The market has lots to prove to the bears before we'll know whether a top has been put in but I continue to believe this is a risky time for the bulls. Even if the DOW does manage to eventually rally to 14400, that's by no means assured and it could instead drop like a stone at any time now.

It will be the form of the decline that gives some clues as to whether we've topped or not. That and breaking some key levels to the downside. Until I see that kind of evidence I will manage my short plays very tightly and I recommend the same. I don't mind trying a couple of times and stopping out near even (like yesterday--had enough for a latte) but it's very important not to let the market rise against your short position. Money management is critical.

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 9:27:44 AM

Same story here. Link

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 9:26:29 AM

One of your first hints the bears are gaining control is bearish MACD divergences but, just like the Russell chart, there is no hint of MACD divergences here. Of course this market needs to take a breather but once it does I think it will have no problem making higher highs. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 9:25:49 AM

Keene, do you know if we get crude inventories today or whether they'll be delayed a day due to the government holiday on Monday?

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 9:23:27 AM

This is quite a bullish chart. Russell bears would love to see a MACD divergence (lower highs on the MACD but higher highs on the price bars) but what you have here is the opposite suggesting this market as further to go. Link

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 9:14:34 AM

Crude is stable and the US$/Gold relationship is very obvious; US$ down and Gold up. I took a long in Gold yesterday using the Gold ETF, GLD. Link

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 9:11:17 AM

Once again MarketWatch headlines, "Stocks set to retrace gains" and once again when you look at the charts you realize it is more of a sideways consolidation than a retracement. The overnight session did take a bigger bite out of the Russell index but the others don't seem all that bearish, not bullish but I would not call them bearish. I suspect the AD line will open very close to 0. Link

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 9:08:05 AM

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will skirt recession even as the housing slump takes a bigger bite from growth, according to a survey of economists.

The economy will grow at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter, 0.4 percentage point less than forecast last month, according to the median of 71 analysts participating in Bloomberg News's monthly survey. Estimates for the first six months of next year were also reduced.

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 9:06:36 AM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The volume of applications filed for mortgages ticked up last week, increasing a seasonally adjusted 2.4% compared with the week before, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday.

Application volume was up 8.6% compared with the same week in 2006, according to the MBA's weekly survey.

Also on a seasonally adjusted basis, applications to refinance an existing loan rose 2.7% last week compared with the week before, while the volume of mortgages to buy a home was up 2.1%.

The four-week moving average for all loans was down 0.2%.

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 9:05:04 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Commercial and savings banks may find profitable opportunities to explore in the subprime mortgage market, said Eric Rosengren, the new president of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank. "The most critical issue is that financing that supports responsible subprime lending continue," Rosengren said in a speech to the Chamber of Commerce in Portland, Maine. Rosengren said the recent market turmoil was not a wholesale reassessment of risk by investors. Instead, the central issue was a lack of liquidity, he said. Rosengren said that investors will slowly gain confidence in their ability to evaluate the quality of ratings on complex securities tied to mortgages and that "conservatively underwritten securitizations and asset-backed commercial paper will find acceptance by investors."

Jane Fox : 10/10/2007 8:57:17 AM

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Asian indexes advanced Wednesday after a record finish on Wall Street overnight, with stocks in Sydney, Seoul and Shanghai finishing at record highs of their own while Japanese indexes gained on exporters such as Honda Motor Co. and Nintendo Co.

In late afternoon trading, indexes in Mumbai and Jakarta were on the way to setting fresh closing records.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index ended up 1.2% at 28,569.33, led by China-related issues such as China Mobile and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, aided by a string of record finishes in Shanghai recently.

The index opened strongly, rising as high as 28,771.47 in the morning session, but turned volatile in the afternoon although the special administrative region's chief executive, Donald Tsang, announced tax cuts in a policy address Wednesday.

"The Hong Kong market doesn't look at Hong Kong news anymore, it looks more closely at news from mainland China. Local economic news isn't something to get excited about for investors," said Francis Lun, general manager at Fulbright Securities in Hong Kong. "Previously, the market used to closely watch the policy speech, but not now."

Linda Piazza : 10/10/2007 7:52:40 AM

Yesterday's $12.500 billion repo matures today, but it is the only one maturing today. Over the last several weeks, the Fed has allowed some net drain days, so we'll see if they continue that practice today.

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