Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2007 12:44:06 AM

SPY Oct. Option Montage found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2007 12:24:38 AM

Closing U.S. Market Watch (Oct. Op-Ex) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/20/2007 12:19:42 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

IOW-VZ expired "no bid."

Closed out the 1/2 position short in shares of UHAL at $60.00.

OI Technical Staff : 10/19/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 6:11:24 PM

NYSE 5-day a/d ratio 35% at tonight's close. See Monday's Wrap Link ... nearing some oversold levels.

NASDAQ's 5-day a/d ratio 37%.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 6:06:38 PM

Excellent, excellent words of wisdom from James Cramer regarding account management this evening. Or at least I agree with it!

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 6:01:26 PM

November Crude (cl07x) settled down $0.87, or -0.97% at $88.60. Contract expires Monday.

December Crude (cl07z) settled down $1.09, or -1.23% at $86.95.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 5:05:56 PM

Updating my trade blotter ... notice things you might not otherwise.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 5:05:01 PM

Not that much spike in premiums on the GG-AZ. Sold them 10/17 at much lower VIX on 10/17/07 at the bid of $2.70 when GG traded $31.85.

GG goes out $31.90 -1.96% today.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 4:55:54 PM

Good gravy! ... Terex (TEX) $81.52 -4.78% ... went right to its 50-day SMA and trending higher 150-day correlation.

TEX-WP went out $3.60 x $4.00.

Earnings are Thursday before the bell.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 4:51:32 PM

Wash Mutual (WM) $29.09 -4.69% ... starting to look a bit like CFC did back in late July.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 4:32:48 PM

Maybe, just mabye get a real nice gap lower in iShares Japan (EWJ) $13.89 -1.97% Monday morning.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 4:30:53 PM

DXY Alert! 77.39

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 4:28:20 PM

Not a good OPEX close for SPY below $150 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 4:25:34 PM

RUL-VS go out "no bid" from mentioned RIMM earnings strangle (see 10/04/07 MM).

RIMM went out $114.97 -1.82% ...

The RUL-JL ended $9.90 x $10.15, but I thought strangle traders should have exited on 10/08/07 @ 3:55:49 at the bid of $13.40 with RIMM $117.80 and VXN.X 20.18 at the time.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 4:14:47 PM

In the bearish wave count on my charts (in the middle of a string of 3rd waves to the downside) it would be more typical for a big gap down to happen in the 2nd of the 3rd waves. Without trying to make it sound complicated, we're not there yet. That means Black Monday is a low-odds probability in my mind. I mentioned it because I think it prudent to protect yourself if needed. But typically we should see a bounce that would set up the big gap down.

Very likely today's big selloff was opex related and Monday will be a recovery day. If there were a lot of traders looking for a bullish opex week, and let's face it, the bullish sentiment says that's likely to have been the case, then there was a lot of selling going on today just to hedge short puts. Once those puts expire traders will then buy back the stock on Monday. That could cause a huge rally instead of a Black Monday. Watch out for that possibility if you're short.

We'll check to see how futures are heading on Sunday night.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 4:10:39 PM

If so, then a bounce back near 827.25 should find formidable selling.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 4:09:10 PM

A potentially bearish settlement in the making for MR below 802.95.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 4:05:33 PM

December Fed Funds (ff07z) 95.61 ... (see Monday's Wrap)

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 4:04:13 PM

Will see later this afternoon, but DXY looks like it will close below its WEEKLY S2.

Have we seen a "breaking point?"

One of the toughest longs around.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 4:00:07 PM

Thinking we're a little too short/put/bearish going into the weekend. Take the position with the MOST RISK off the table.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 3:58:49 PM

Whether you prospered greatly today, made money but not nearly as much as you could have made, or lost money, step away from the computer this afternoon and breathe. Take some time away, be with the people who matter to you, enjoy what I hope is beautiful fall weather for you. (We're in the 90's in part of Texas, so we'll settle for late summer weather.)

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 3:57:46 PM

AMERCO (UHAL) alert! $60.00 -4.15% Swing trade short cover alert! ... cover the full position at the offer of $60.00.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 3:51:34 PM

Five-minute 9-ema for the SPX is 1506.73; the OEX, 703.08. It will soon be time for you to be putting your orders in, if you intend to close by the end of the day and haven't seen your racheted-lower stops hit.

I know there must be many in bullish plays who are hurting right now. Make the decisions you need to make, too, if your stops are being hit in your longer-term bullish positions. It's easier to sleep if you take your medicine earlier, rather than later.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 3:33:09 PM

This is not meant to scare anyone but only to inform. The very bearish wave count, that has us in the middle of a series of 3rd waves to the downside yet to come, is a perfect setup for a big gap down followed by strong selling. I wouldn't want to bet that way (except for perhaps a few put options) but if you're in a long position and hoping for a bounce, we are at risk here for a Black Monday.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 3:32:21 PM

Five-minute 9-ema for the SPX now at 1506.44. For the OEX, 704.60.

Irrespective of what the SPX and OEX are doing with regard to their 5-minute 9-ema's, it's time for you to begin making some end-of-day decisions, before the market-on-close orders hit. Those might send indices lower; might send them higher. I don't know, but you need to know whether you intend to hold over the close and then be adjusting your stops accordingly. If I intended to close out before the close (don't have any directional options right now), I'd be ratcheting down my stops to an account-appropriate level just above a descending trendline or even that 5-minute 9-ema. Then I'd let a bounce that got a bit too big take me out. Or, alternately, I'd be setting a profit stop (SPX 1498-1500, as just an example, not a recommendation) and close out automatically wnen that was hit and then step away from the computer and not do the coulda/woulda/shoulda thing. Whatever you do, though, don't wait until the last minute to put in your order because it might be a zoo with the SPX desks.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 3:30:48 PM

As always, the wave count could morph into something else but from right here right now a bullish outcome to this (that suggests a new high is yet to come) is not evident on the chart. As I showed on the RUT's daily chart, we should get a little corrective bounce and then drop lower. But at this point, its bearish count suggests we could see a strong decline before we see it stair step lower.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 3:27:05 PM

Too late. The RUT has now violated its Aug 23rd high at 802.57 and thereby negated the bullish wave count on its chart. That one is done. The top is in.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 3:22:34 PM

DOW down over 300. This is about the time the Bat Phone starts ringing and the call goes out for help. Will Paulson and Bernanke get involved? They better press the buy button soon.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 3:20:08 PM

SPX's 5-minute 9-ema is now at 1511.25 with further resistance at 1511.91. OEX's, 705.49, with further resistance at 705.74.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 3:17:49 PM

NYSE Comp. ($NYA.X) 9976.15 -1.95% ... currently down 198.46.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 3:17:07 PM

Notice too that the 50-dma for the RUT is near 802. It's an important level. Could be a good buying opportunity for at least a bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 3:17:03 PM

Program Trading Collars In

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 3:12:47 PM

I often mention that rising and descending wedges typically get retraced back to their origin much faster than it took for the wedge to develop. The rising wedge for SPX from 1507 on Sept 25th took 12 days. It has now been retraced in 6 days. The larger rising wedge for the RUT from the beginning of Sept points to a continuation lower to the 760 area.

The RUT though is now down to a critical level. If it breaks below 802 it will negate the bullish wave count that calls for another rally leg (wave-4 can't overlap wave-1). It's also down to its uptrend line from the August and Sept lows. The bulls must step in soon to keep the bullish wave pattern alive. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 3:08:33 PM

SPX's five-minute 9-ema is now at 1512.02. OEX's, 705.79.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 3:05:34 PM

VIX.X alert! 21.01 +13.56% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 3:04:04 PM

Swing trade put alert! ... for one (1) of the Terex Corp. TEX Nov $80 Puts (TEX-WP) at the offer of $3.40.

No stop for now, target $78 in the underlying.

TEX $82.53 -3.60%

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 3:03:04 PM

The bottom of a parallel down-channel for SPX, from last week's high, is also near 1507. It's not a bad place to take profits on a short and nibble on a long. But waiting for a break of this afternoon's downtrend line is still a more conservative (safer?) way to try to grap an afternoon bounce.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 3:00:53 PM

SPX low is now 2 points away from the Sept 25th low near 1507. I would think there will be enough traders taking profits on shorts and trying the long side at that support level. I would think.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 2:57:25 PM

TEX has earnings coming up too.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 2:56:58 PM

Ooooo ....

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 2:56:45 PM

Caterpillar (CAT) $73.45 -5.43% ... bold move below its rising 150-day SMA.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 2:56:18 PM

I don't have to mention, I don't think, how round-number support or resistance can be important, whether or not there are technical levels, pivot points, moving averages or trendlines at those round-number levels. With the SPX approaching 1500 and the OEX, 700, you should be revising your exit plan, lowering stops accordingly as those levels are approached.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 2:54:22 PM

So far, since the lunchtime lull ended, the SPX's 5-minute 9-ema has still be providing resistance on 5-minute closes. That's now at 1514.45 but still descending. On the OEX, the 5-minute 9-ema is now at 706.86 and still descending.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 2:52:56 PM

Had a question regarding usefulness of TRIN in my WEEKLY Pivots. Today an example as DAILY R2 was 1.45.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 2:51:13 PM

NYSE a/d still burried ... 655:2593

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 2:51:07 PM

A lot of good that does us now though heh?

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 2:50:52 PM

TRIN 1.80 ... still sitting on WEEKLY R2.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 2:50:51 PM

Believe this or not but earlier when I stated that I thought a bottom was in I had another post all ready that said, "In for now" because it just felt like it had the potential to fall later. Ok I know most of you do not believe me but it's the truth.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 2:47:46 PM

If you'd like to try to catch an afternoon bounce in hopes of a short-covering rally but unwilling to step in front of this southbound train (like me) then draw a downtrend line now from the high just before 2:00 PM. If that downtrend line is broken it should be the signal that the bottom is in. Just keep your stop relatively tight since whipsaws are the threat.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 2:45:53 PM

SPX has now retraced 38.20% of its rally from the August lows. Link

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 2:44:12 PM

Ok here I go again but this time it is backed up by empirical evidence. See the S&P futures making new daily lows but the VIX is not? HMMMM I think the bottom is in. OK don't throw anything, like I said before the market is designed to make all of us wrong most of the time. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 2:36:51 PM

So far, the 5-minute 9-ema has continued to provide resistance on 5-minute closes on the SPX. It's now at 1515.80, currently being tested again. On the OEX, it's 707.49.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 2:35:23 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Closed out the FLK-AH at the bid of $5.90 when FFIV traded $42.60

Closed/Stopped the 1/2 position (1,333 shares) in CDE at profiled stop of $3.66.

Adjustments: Raised bearish targets on PTR-WL to $216 in the underlying.

Raised bearish target on EWJ-WO to $13.80 in the underlying.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 2:26:53 PM

The bearish side of things here is very bearish so keep that in mind if you're hoping for a bounce (be careful of that slippery slope of hope). The bearish wave count is super bearish and a panic selloff is what it means. I'm not quite convinced of that wave count yet but that's the potential. Traders are a superstitious lot and some are spooked by this 20th anniversary of the '87 crash.

Combine this factor with the weak internals we've been seeing and the plethora of sell signals from several sectors/indices and you've got to be careful about this market if you're long. But we know what can happen to bears when they get trapped and then buy programs hit. Take nothing for granted, either side.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 2:20:54 PM

When I was saying we needed a larger bounce (38%-62% of today's decline) to then roll over for a more bearish signal, we did not get that bounce yet. That makes the current drop a part of today's decline so it's not especially bearish, yet.

We could see a small descending wedge form from the noon bounce and that would be an ending pattern (a choppy move down that would need another up-down sequence to finish it). That's not apparent yet but it's what I'm watching to see if it develops. It could set up a rally into the close or certainly on Monday. The day is still young.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 2:18:44 PM

New low on the SPX and OEX. The previous three 5-minute closes have been been below the 9-ema, so let's start watching it again for guidance. It's now at 1516.36 for the SPX and 707.70 for the OEX, and still moving lower, of course.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 2:17:05 PM

a/d lines still very bearish at 635:2599 and 645:2271

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 2:15:59 PM

I can still see evidence of bullish divergences on my 5-min charts but price action is not exactly bullish here. Stick with the lower highs and stay with the downtrend until we're told otherwise.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 2:05:24 PM

Ad line is now a very bearish -1912 so it looks like my limb is going to get cut off again today.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 1:59:01 PM

Got a "doji" in the 60-minute interval chart of the SPY from 11:30-12:30.

Low/high of that doji 151.39/152.29. Close of that doji was $151.92.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 1:56:34 PM

SPY $151.87 -1.17% ...

TRAN 4,864.67 -0.89% ...

XLF $33.08 -1.89% ... banks/brokers/S&L's/insurance

Throw in the RLX.X 455.72 -1.33% with holiday shopping season about to begin.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 1:54:31 PM

Commentary on CNBC ... Oil decline not helping indexes???

Energy stocks have been a leader, so it becomes a "careful what you wish for" if the Transports don't show some type of strength pretty quick. Same for the financials.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 1:46:14 PM

Thinking about that bar chart pattern pointed out yesterday (distribution for several days, then BOOM!), has me thinking Mark Sue had clients selling into some strength on the way up, maybe some distribution back down, cut their positions in 1/2. Then yesterday's they "stop selling" and wait things out for earnings.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 1:42:41 PM

As Jane would note, the retest of the low or SPX is also being met with a lower high in the VIX so it's a bullish divergence in that regard. However, there is no bullish divergence with the a-d issues or volume--they're confirming the retest so no real message from them.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 1:44:39 PM

FFIV certainly isn't on the "sell list" ... FFIV $42.73 -0.62% ... Mark Sue at RBC does have a target of $45, but thinks it may face some competitive pressure from CSCO.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 1:38:30 PM

We've got bullish divergence on this retest of the low for SPX. It's a buy here based on that. Just be prepared for potential chop if we're just going to consolidate.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 1:35:45 PM

My alarm at QM (December) 86.50 just went off. Nice. Lowering the stop on my oil short to 87.60, a few ticks above this morning's bounce. I'm now in a free ride with a guaranteed profit. Now if gold would just follow and get the heck away from this 770 area. As soon as it drops to a new low (hopefully) below this morning's (762.50) I'll lower my stop on my short to 774, just above this morning's high so far. Stop for now is still at 776.50. This is the way I look for and play tops and bottoms which is clearly not something everyone likes to do.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 1:32:47 PM

Bears want a lower low. Bulls are trying to hold the SPX and OEX at these slightly higher lows.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 1:31:41 PM

Forex's Global Economic Calendar for this week Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 1:20:50 PM

SPX 1,518 -1.43% ... this has been a rather "influential" level since May 11

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 1:15:31 PM

Daily RSI has now dipped to 31.41 (approximately: it keeps changing) on the SPX, so it's approaching levels (below 30) that are considered extreme. That means that if you've been in a long-term bearish play from 10/11, you should have your profit-protecting plans in place, but it doesn't necessarily mean you should bail and take full profit unless you're a particularly conservative trader.

I've listened to webinars and read articles from people who believe that a trending RSI or other such indicator is an entry signal for a bullish or bearish play and RSI can trend on the daily chart. In fact, when I was testing another kind of channel, Donchian Channels, I found that the most profitable breakout plays were those then breakouts occurred after RSI was already at extreme levels.

So, an RSI that's approaching extreme levels to the upside or downside is a signal that you need to prepare your exit plan and maybe even, if you've got a number of positions, to take partial profit as part of that plan, but it's not necessarily an automatic signal to exit the full position. I began warning subscribers earlier in the week to watch RSI as the SPX or other indices dipped to key support levels, watching for bounce potential, and that's all I'm saying now. Just be aware of bounce potential and make your plans accordingly if you're in long-term bearish plays (position trades you planned to hold a week or two), but allow price action to dictate whether that plan is put into effect or whether you've got more gains to collect.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 1:15:30 PM

With C$ and US$ at/near par now, no real surprise from Canada.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 1:08:28 PM

Have made some adjustments to downside target as currency conditions change.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 1:07:52 PM

EWJ $14.00 ... gets the trade at initial profile target.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 1:06:32 PM

Germany's PPI m/m up 0.2% vs. forecast of +0.3%.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 1:05:52 PM

Great Britian's Preliminary GDP up 0.8% q/q. Forecast was 0.7%.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 1:04:23 PM

Jane/Linda! ... Canada's CPI was up 0.2% m/m. Core was up 0.4%. Consensus was respective 0.2% for both.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 1:01:26 PM

Yep. In Canada, core CPI rose 0.4 percent instead of the expected 0.2 percent and the previous 0.1 percent.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 1:00:43 PM

DJUSHB 346.44 +1.32% ...

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 1:00:18 PM

Jane, Canada's September CPI was released this morning. I'm guessing it must have been high, to send the CDN$ up like that. (Jane's 12:47:42 post.)

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 12:59:19 PM

Sold long a partial in NVR here at $441.40 from a 10/17 entry of $411. Raising stop on rest to break-even, near-term target back at $480.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 12:57:39 PM

Prices are just chopping around during the lunchtime lull. This is to be expected, but we just can't tell what's going to happen next. Unfortunately, I don't think any amount of squinting at the charts is going to tell me, either, because this is the nature of a first stalling after a steep move and of the lunchtime lull, and then you have to add in the typical opex Friday stuff, too. If you're in a bearish play, just know where your stops are and honor them. There's nothing else for you to do and hopefully those stops were set for a while. If you're a wanta-be-bull, I'd be very careful and would trade that on an opex Friday only with lottery money. I've been saying all week that selling the rallies was the way I would suggest trading except for experienced scalpers. If that's what you are, you don't need my advice anyway.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 12:48:51 PM

Swing trade put raise bearish target alert! ... Let's bring the target on the iShares Japan EWJ Nov $15 Puts (EWJ-WO) up to $13.80 in the underlying.

EWJ $14.02 -1.05% ...

EWJ-WO $0.95 x $1.05.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 12:47:42 PM

Has anyone see what the CDN$ is doing today? I missed this move altogether. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 12:44:45 PM

A bit surprised CDE traded $3.66, let alone $3.65 today.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 12:43:25 PM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 12:43:07 PM

Filled in personal account on CDE $3.70 ... was looking like I might have gotten stuck with a partial. Might look short on further up-ticks to WKLY S1 and 50% dynamic.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 12:39:19 PM

Swing trade put raise bearish target alert! ... for the PetroChina PTR Nov $160 Put (PTR-WL) to $216 in the underlying.

PTR $238.24 -4.97% ...

PTR-WL $0.95 x $1.30

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 12:38:48 PM

If you are considering a short play on GOOG beware that the short term pattern in the rise up from Wednesday would look best with one more high and tagging the Fib target at 661.36, during regular trading hours, would be an even better short play setup.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 12:34:01 PM

What will you do if you're in a bearish play and the SPX or OEX rise up to test Wednesday's low sometime during this lunchtime lull? That's a possibility. The outcome of that test might decide whether there's another rollover or not. Can your play weather such a test? Do you want to widen your stop to accommodate such a test if it should occur or narrow it to take you out before the SPX or OEX could rise that high? Make your decision soon.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 12:33:55 PM

I showed on the NDX chart what looks like a sideways consolidation pattern. This can be interpreted as either bullish or bearish. Without the ability to push above last week's high it's possible to consider today's decline as the start of the next big leg down. Any bounce today (into the 38%-62% retracement zone) that is then followed by a low below today's would be bearish. It would be very difficult or me to consider a bullish EW count if that happens.

So I think the market is literally on the edge here (I agree with McMillan's analysis that the bulls need to step up to the plate now otherwise they'll forfeit the game). Perhaps we'll get a heads up by watching a stock like GOOG. The overnight high was 663.27 and tagged the Fib projection for the 5th wave in the wave count I have for it. It has now reached the top of its parallel up-channel from 2006: Link

If GOOG leaves a doji candlestick here, at potential resistance, and then gets a red candle on Monday, that would be a reversal pattern. It would be especially strong if it gaps down slightly--that would leave an evening star which is the most reliable candlestick reversal pattern. Until that happens then obviously GOOG is bullish but considering the wave pattern, Fib projection and trend line I think bears have a reason to try shorting it here.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 12:31:36 PM

The SPX and OEX are now finding support on 5-minute closes at their 9-ema's, but the SPX is threatening to break through that support now, with that 9-ema at 1521.13. The SPX needs to break strongly lower, however, if the prior downtrend is to resume on this chart as it's got other support just below this on the 5-minute chart and it's turned its 5-minute channel higher again. Bears would prefer to see a new low, but I'm not sure they'll get it or at least get it during the lunchtime lull that should be about to begin. The OEX's 5-minute 9-ema is currently at 709.75.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 12:26:40 PM

Forex Currency (live) Link ... USD/JPY 115.09 bid.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 12:24:35 PM

Trying to sell long CDE on this bounce at the offer of $3.70.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 12:12:06 PM

McMillan's weekly commentary - The stock market has had something of a rough week this week despite the fact that it's October expiration week. The Dow has been down for 4 days in a row, although small-cap indices have faredbetter. The question that arises is, "Is this a mere correction to workoff an overbought condition, or is this market out of gas and due for another relatively large decline?" As always, we'll refer to ourtechnical indicators to try to answer this question.

First of all, the $SPX chart remains bullish. There are several support levels on the chart. The most prominent of them is the 540-1550 area, an area which has still not been violated on a closing price basis by $SPX this week. Intraday, the averages dropped into the 1520-1530 area yesterday, but rebounded strongly after doing so. While we would not be encouraged to see a violation on the downside of the 1520 area, there is another strong support area beneath there, at 1490. But for bullish purposes, $SPX needs to stay above 1520.

The equity-only put-call ratios remain bullish in that they continue to decline on their charts. But they are certainly at the bottom of their recent ranges. However, they have a small "curl" in them now, which is not yet a sell signal, but if they roll over and begin to rise, they would turn bearish.

The shorter-term indicators are more of a problem. Breadth (advances minus declines) has weakened considerably in the last week. While we don't consider breadth to be a leading indicator -- preferring it to be a confirming indicator -- this is still a short-term negative for the broad market.

The volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have crept higher this week and have risen above their 20-day moving averages. Thus, the bullish downtrend of these indices has ceased. That places them in a type of neutral status. However, if a true uptrend develops in $VIX, then that would be bearish.

In summary, the market is in somewhat of a tenuous position right now. The bulls still have a chance to take charge, but if there is much further deterioration, they may lose control. At this point, we are still giving the benefit of the doubt to the bulls because of the intermediate-term buy signals that were registered in August and September, but if $SPX slips below 1520 -- and especially if it falls below 1490 -- the bears would be back in control once again.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 12:08:00 PM

Here I go out on a limb again - I think the bottom is in for the day.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 12:07:05 PM

Top-of-the-channel resistance has held on a five-minute close on the SPX and OEX, although the SPX had shoved that channel boundary a little higher by the time it was tested. If a new uptrend is going to begin, the 9-ema might now begin forming support on 5-minute closes. That 9-ema is at about 1520.25 on the SPX, 709.50 on the OEX. I wouldn't be surprised to see some choppiness for a while now, though, while bears and bulls battle it out right here and decide what comes next.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 11:56:28 AM

First close above the five-minute 9-ema's all day on the SPX and OEX, but we knew that the early, most aggressive selling had to let up eventually, at least long enough for the top of the descending smallest Keltner channels to be tested. They're being tested now, and now's the time when bulls and bears alike will face some confusion. This has happened because a spot has been reached in which someone is willing to absorb, at least temporarily, the supply being dumped in the markets, or else all the someones dumping the supply have temporarily halted their efforts. We don't know yet what the outcome will be. You short-term bears have a relatively easy task. You should have been moving your stops down with the SPX and OEX, and, if the bounce gets big enough to hit your stop, you're taken out. Longer-term bears, perhaps those in bearish plays since 10/11, have a more difficult task because that rising trendline off the summer's low is now way up above. Whatever you decide, place your stops so that you collect some profit.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 11:51:46 AM

The one risk for the rest of the day, from a trading perspective, is that we're just going to go flat. Opex Friday's are not known for their volatility and a strong rally back up today may not be in the cards. So a consolidation with choppy price action is the risk.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 11:43:34 AM

SanDisk (SNDK) $44.67 -11.21% ... plunges below its 200-day SMA.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 11:42:06 AM

Now watch for a higher high in the bounce (none yet) to indicate we have at least a temporary bottom. It might chop a little lower first. But a conservative way to enter a long play would be to wait for a higher high in the bounce off the low and then buy a pullback. In the meantime the trend is clearly down and if short you can use the same signal as your exit to protect profits.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 11:41:07 AM

Altria (MO) $70.94 +0.07% ... holding steady.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 11:39:36 AM

If you ever wonder what the internals need to look like to be short this is it. Link

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 11:37:17 AM

Well the bulls are getting good and worried now. Link

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 11:35:54 AM

Now that we're getting a new low I'm watching for bullish divergences. If there aren't any then don't step in front of this train.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 11:35:30 AM

So far, the more bearish outcome is still being produced, continued resistance at the moving lower 5-minute 9-ema's on 5-minute closes with a new low to confirm it, but it's going to be time sooner or later for a bounce up to test the top of the smallest channels. For the SPX, the 9-ema is now at 1519.73, the top of the channel at 1522.26. For the OEX, that's at 709.18 and 710.48.

I have to admit surprise. Last Thursday (not yesterday) set up this week's performance, but I honestly didn't think "they" would allow this to happen today of all days.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 11:29:53 AM

Similar to what I showed for a double zigzag count for SPX, the same count for the DOW shows equality in the 2nd a-b-c move down (wave-c down is this morning's decline) is at 13678 which has already been tagged. The DOW also made it down to the bottom of a parallel down-channel for price action since the Oct 11 high. Starting to like the long side better here.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 11:19:42 AM

SPX 1516-1517 should be good support. We might get a minor new low and if it's accompanied with bullish divergences on the 5-min chart I'd try a long. Keep your stop relatively tight.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 11:17:33 AM

The five-minute 9-ema's held on the SPX and OEX tests of them in the just-ended five-minute period, but they're still being tested. They're at 1521.28 and 710.02, respectively. Further resistance (breakdown levels) is just above that, at 1521.99 and 710.40.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 11:15:49 AM

The USDJPY is still trending down, now at 115.02, although it has not yet matched much less dropped below the overnight low.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 11:12:24 AM

SPX is now tagging its 50EMA and the bulls are getting worried just like I thought they would. The market is made to give both the bears and the bulls Maalox minutes. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 11:11:06 AM

Swamped with downside alerts I've had set.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 11:10:27 AM

Swing trade long stopped alert! for the 1/2 bullish position in shares of Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) $3.66 -2.91% ...

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 11:09:56 AM

The analogous daily Keltner support on the OEX is at about 708.10.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 11:09:05 AM

There are breakdowns on all the intraday charts I have available to me, up to the 30-minute, so I can't roll up to a higher level one to find a next target. The daily chart shows the next target actually being hit, at about 1519. This suggests that bears need to have profit-protecting plans firmly in place now as this could be support on a daily closing basis. Prices could of course cascade lower. Support levels are of course broken, but don't let a profitable trade turn into a losing one, at the very least.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 11:04:22 AM

Breakdown on the 5-five minute Keltner charts for the OEX and SPX. The 5-minute 9-ema's are now at 710.41 and 1521.84. You can still use them to just whether the short-term tenor has changed.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 11:01:58 AM

SPX is now tagging that 1517.80 level. Time for the bulls to step back in. Ready to buy this? Without clearer evidence of a bottom I can't recommend that play but this is the level where it will happen if this is ending the corrective pullback. But remember the H&S pattern I showed on the SPX 30-min chart? The downside projection out of that is 1516: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 11:00:59 AM

iShares Japan (EWJ) $14.03 -0.98% ... post bearish profile here.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 10:59:28 AM

Swing trade put alert! ... for one (1) of the Murphy Oil MUR Jan$80 Puts (MUR-MP) at the offer of $6.70.

No stop for now, target $67.50.

MUR $76.53 -3.76% ... has traded 3-box reversal to $76.00.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 10:56:36 AM

You can now use that five-minute 9-ema on the SPX and OEX to judge whether there's been any change in tenor at all on the SPX and OEX. They're at 1524.11 and 711.38, and the most bearish tenor will have been preserved if five-minute closes stay below them. Usually, beginning about mid-morning, though, they begin to flatten and there will be an eventual pop up to the top of the smallest channel. Don't use that usual tendency as an excuse not to honor your stops, whatever they are, though. Do keep moving your stops down an account-appropriate level as these move lower.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 10:51:16 AM

Using the SPX 60-min chart I'm showing how this pullback could still set up another rally leg (supporting the more bullish looking NDX). The drop from Oct 11th can be counted as a double zigzag (instead of nested 1st and 2nd waves). An a-b-c-x-a-b-c move down would be corrective and the 2nd a-b-c would achieve equality at 1517.80 (shown on the chart): Link

So watch for potential support around that area as an opportunity to buy this "dip". At this point I consider both counts (bullish and bearish) to be equally valid and if anything I'd have to say NDX has me leaning towards the bullish count. It now takes a break below 1507 (Sept 25th low) to tell me the bears win.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 10:49:59 AM

SPY $152.20 -0.96% ... not looking good for the bulls today.

BIX.X 337.87 -0.76% ...

TRAN 4,859.25 -1.00% ...

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 10:42:53 AM

Analogous support on the OEX's five-minute chart is at 710.45, just being hit, with the five-minute 9-ema at 711.94.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 10:42:16 AM

The SPX wasn't really adhering to the 10-minute Keltner channels well, so I rolled down to te five-minute ones. That shows the SPX finding resistance this morning on several tests of the five-minute 9-ema, so let's watch that as a better guide for now, until and unless there's a breakdown on that chart. This shows the current downside target at 1522.30, a little higher than the other, with that target to be maintained as long as there are five-minute closes beneath the 9-ema, now at 1526.10. Sooner or later, the SPX is going to need a bounce up to the top of the smallest channel rather than just to the basis line of that channel, the 9-ema, and the top of that channel is now at 1525.49. Looks, as I type, as if the SPX is headed down to the bottom of the channel instead, though, and I may soon be switching right back to the 10-minute chart.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 10:38:43 AM

Internals are bearish. Link

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 10:36:04 AM

I'm showing what looks like a sideways consolidation pattern for NDX and that looks bullish. It's possible we're going to see a choppy rise higher (in an ending diagonal 5th wave which would explain the 3-wave moves): Link . For a bearish wave count I labeled yesterday's late-day high on the chart as the end of the 2nd wave correction. That's a bit of a stretch so I'm not comfortable with that count. But if we have something very bearish on the other indices then this is how I'd count the NDX. It takes a break below 2127 on Oct 11th to say NDX could be in trouble as well.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 10:33:13 AM

The Keltner charts aren't any kind of hocus pocus. The channels have a moving average as their basis line. Those who use Bollinger bands will find it easy to relate to Keltner channels, too. What I do differently than most people is to nest several Keltner channels together. The idea is not original to me although I've developed uses and interpretations that I haven't seen elsewhere, just from years of using them. Years ago, Jim sent me and Jonathan Levinson a copy of an article he thought interesting. We did, too, and I've been using the Keltner channels since then. In my articles about Keltners, I always document the original source of the material, but I can't remember the names of the two guys now.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 10:30:26 AM

F5 Networks (FFIV) $52.52 -1.11% ... updated bar chart (technical comments) at this Link

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 10:29:35 AM

Just a note about the Keltner levels I give you: these Keltner lines are dynamic. If the security being charted moves strongly in one direction, the channel lines are going to move in that direction, too. How much they move depends on how fast the move occurs and how long it persists. However, if I give you a number of 1529.10, for example, and the SPX bounces, that line might have moved up to 1529.30-1529.60 by the time it's tested. Also, I've found that these Keltner lines are often-enough pierced during the interval being charted (10-minute charts, 30-minute charts, daily, etc.) but often then close below or above the lines, depending on whether they're resistance of support. That's why I keep mentioning "on 10-minute closes." If the lines are pierced but prices close back within the channel, I consider the support or resistance to have held.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 10:26:09 AM

NDX, which has clearly been the stronger index, is leaving a big question mark on the chart from an EW perspective. By dropping below yesterday's low the bounce off Wednesday's low has been left as a very clear 3-wave bounce. Rallies don't finish with a 3-wave move and therefore it's tough to call a top for NDX. If anything that one looks like it could still be consolidating before it pushes higher again. That makes it much more difficult to believe something more bearish is happening to the other indices. It's a fractured market and that requires caution from traders.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 10:25:14 AM

FWIW, the USDJPY has still been dropping--last night, I heard the term "unwinding yen carry trade" being bandied about again on CNBC Asia/Europe. The current bounce up to 115.18 looks a little stronger than some others, but it's still so far below the 10-minute 9-ema at 155.22.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 10:24:41 AM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $32.10 -1.77% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 10:23:50 AM

VIX.X 19.57 +5.78% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 10:23:21 AM

VXN.X 23.07 +4.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 10:22:46 AM

Swing trade call exit alert! ... for the one (1) F5 Networks FFIV Jan $40 Call (FLK-AH) at the bid of $5.90.

FFIV $42.60 -0.93% ...

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 10:19:57 AM

The move down for the DOW is now turning into a parallel down-channel. This happened to a lot of the rising wedges in the rallies--they kept turning into parallel up-channels. Might the opposite be happening now? By dropping below the Wednesday low it has negated the bullish (green) wave count which called the move down from Oct 11th as the end of a 4th wave correction which was to be followed by another rally leg to a new hgih: Link

The bearish (dark red) wave count is an extremely bearish nested 1st and 2nd waves to the downside. It calls for an unwinding of the count with multiple 3rd waves and then stair step lower. I rarely trust the wave count when it looks this bearish because frankly it usually doesn't work out that way. But I'm seriously wondering about the possibility from here that we could see some panic selling start to appear. Be very careful (both sides) as it could get volatile and whippy.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 10:17:16 AM

OEX next resistance at 713.34 on 10-minute closes according to a 10-minute Keltner chart, with Wednesday's low obviously S/R to be tested, too. The 9-ema is now at 714.55 but still speeding down. The current downside target and support is 709.44, but sustained 10-minute closes above 713.34 will erase that target.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 10:15:45 AM

SPX next resistance at 1528-1528.65 on 10-minute closes, at least according to Keltner charts. Obviously, the SPX is now testing S/R at Wednesday's low. Next support and current downside target is 1519.77, a target that will be erased if the SPX can produce sustained 10-minute closes above 1528.65.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 10:14:40 AM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) $191.86 -3.63% ... sector loser early.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 10:10:34 AM

I'm worried about the same thing that worries Keene in his 9:57:53 post. As I said in the Wrap last night, the only reason that I mentioned that anniversary was that I thought there might be a concerted effort to prop up the markets today if they started to slip. So far, of course, there's been no such effort, but the cynic in me worries that bears could get trapped today, so be careful about protecting your profits if you're in a bearish position. That doesn't mean to bail automatically right when you read this post, but do set careful stops and do not hold on for the last $0.20 of downside you expected when you see something developing that worries you.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 10:10:24 AM

Um, bulls? You need to do something here. SPX dropping below Wednesday's low is not a good sign.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 10:07:24 AM

Next potential target and support for the OEX, according to a 10-minute Keltner chart, is 1519.89. For the OEX, 709.47.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 10:06:14 AM

Gold is pulling back from its overnight high at 776. For those who shorted it with me at 773.50 I'm waiting for it to drop below 765 before lowering my stop below 776. For now my stop has been lowered a dollar to 776.50. I'm trading YG (December e-mini) so once it tags 765 I'll be lowering my stop to breakeven at 773.50 and keep it there until I see the first larger bounce correction.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2007 9:59:51 AM

NVR, Inc. (NVR) $458.69 +10.11% ... Eearnings press release Link

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 9:57:53 AM

Everyone who's been awake knows that today is the 20th anniversary of the '87 crash. The bears would of course like to see a repeat and the bulls are afraid of one. But the cynic in me suspects a bear trap here--let the market sink (or even help it), suck in the shorts and then jam it higher and watch the shorts run for cover. The Boyz would then drive home the point that we're not going to crash.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 9:56:11 AM

The Fed has announced a repo in the amount of $3.250, replacing a repo in the amount of $3.250 that matured today.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 9:54:57 AM

Like the SPX, the OEX is hugging support near 713.60 on 10-minute closes rather than securely pulling free of it. Next potential resistance, if it could pull free, is at 714.69 on 10-minute closes, with the 9-ema at 715.73. Next potential support according to this chart (just a 10-minute chart, so it's not the ultimate in reliability, but pretty good for the SPX and OEX) is at 709.58, should the OEX roll down through Wednesday's low.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 9:52:40 AM

SPX beginning that bounce that I thought might happen soon. Next resistance that might be tested now at 1531.76, but only if the bulls can produce sustained closes above the 10-minute support at 1529.10. The just-completed one was a just-barely close above that resistance. I don't think it's securely free of that resistance yet. The 9-ema is now at 1534.41. This again is an iffy time because bulls are going to be looking at this morning's punch lower as a possible higher low and see it as a sign to buy: bears, this morning's collapse as a sign of more weakness to come. The next potential downside target if the SPX rolls down according to this chart is 1520.15, but that hasn't been set yet.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 9:50:50 AM

After reading Jane's 9:34 post about Greenspan's comment about the Super SIV fund, I'll bet Paulson is a bit peeved that the old man won't go away. Nothing like raining on his parade. I'm sure Paulson had enough difficulty arm twisting C, JPM and BAC to go along with this idea and doesn't need Greenspan torpedoing the idea. I happen to think Greenspan is correct on this issue.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 9:47:32 AM

For those who did get short oil yesterday afternoon or last night with me, you'll want to lower your stop to just above last night's high of 88.475 (December QM contract). If you got short in the target range I had for oil (88.15-88.42) you might want to lower your stop to breakeven at this point.

With QM07Z currently trading 87.40, and having dropped more than a dollar to 87.025 this morning, any bounce back above 88 would have me wondering if it's just going to continue higher. So reduce your risk as much as you can while trying to stay away from potential whipsaws.

Oil needs to break its previous low at 86.55 yesterday to tell me a top could be in and then I'll be looking for the first larger corrective bounce to lower my stop (and try to identify the next short entry point). Even if you don't want to trade oil, I'm trying to show the method I use to find a top and control risk in the process.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 9:43:26 AM

Now the OEX is punching through that Keltner support zone that's usually fairly strong, but is approaching the 1526-1527 historical support zone. I'm not so sure that it didn't just overrun that potential support by a little, though, so short-term bears should be careful to protect profits here. Next potential target and support is 1520.32 on this chart if the SPX can't begin producing 10-minute closes above 1529.24 again, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce begin soon, taking the SPX up to maybe 1532.64 next resistance.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 9:40:46 AM

The USDJPY climbed off its overnight low beginning about 3:00 EXT (suspect, because neither the US nor Japanese markets were open) up to test the 115.60-115.80 resistance zone at about 6:30. Since then it's been pulling back again but has yet to have reached the overnight low of 114.82. It's at 115.22 as I type. The rollover at resistance is short-term bearish, supporting the idea of equity weakness, but there's potential support near 115.00, so bears should watch to make sure it isn't bouncing too hard from that area if that's hit.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 9:35:48 AM

Similarly, the OEX is punching through its first Keltner support and headed straight to that next potential target and support, at 713.81 on 10-minute closes.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 9:35:44 AM

VIX opens above its PDH but is flat lined.

Linda Piazza : 10/19/2007 9:35:12 AM

The SPX is hitting and piercing first Keltner support, now pushed down to 1534.71, but let's see what happens on the first 10-minute close. If it maintains this support on that close, the outlook is a little less certain, but if it doesn't, the next potential downside target and potential support is 1529.71. That could be strong support if this is anything other than a really bearish day.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 9:35:07 AM

AD line is bearish -984.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 9:34:07 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the "Super SIV" fund could have serious repercussions, according to an interview with the Emerging Market newspaper and posted on its Web site Friday.

In the article, Greenspan said the "Super SIV" - the $75 billion Master Liquidity Enhancement Conduit designed to take on the assets of troubled investments - runs the risk of further undermining already brittle confidence in besieged credit markets.

The fund - proposed by Citigroup, Bank of America , and JPMorgan - represents an attempt to ease the crisis facing credit markets. Greenspan said it wasn't clear to him that the benefits of that kind of fund outweigh the risks, according to the report.

Emerging Markets is a newspaper published during the meetings of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and regional development banks

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 9:31:21 AM

It looks like on the MM I'm clearly in the minority when it comes to looking for a place to get short gold and oil (and long the US dollar). But that's OK, the bullish sentiment on gold is at an extreme and the COT report shows the commercials have been adding to their net short positions while non-commercials are net long. The swing between these two is the greatest since the May 2006 high in gold. That's not a good timing tool but it does offer a heads up that a top is likely getting very close. At this point I'm probing for it.

Keene Little : 10/19/2007 9:26:13 AM

It looks like we've got ourselves another negative open today. I'm a little surprised that opex week hasn't been more bullish. Equity futures steadily declined last night to lows around 2:00 AM and then rallied a bit to a 7:30 AM high, with the techs leading the rally again. As has been the case lately, techs (NQ) show relative strength this morning.

I see signs of distribution in the techs in the overlapping highs and lows as it struggles now to climb higher so it looks like an ending pattern. The jury is still out but I'm starting to have my doubts about the bullish scenario that I've been showing on the charts.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 9:23:33 AM

Now take another look at the Gold chart and notice MACD is not making a new high so I think this will be the market that retraces either first or the farthest.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 9:21:59 AM

Take another look at the Crude chart and notice the MACD is making a new high just like price so you don't even have a MACD divergence yet.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 9:21:01 AM

I truly thought the doji made on October 17th was the bell at the top but I was wrong. Then I was kind of thinking a retracement back to the support at $79.00/bl would be a good spot to buy the dip but now I am thinking that spot is about $84.00. Link

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 9:17:26 AM

Here is the chart of Gold and yes it is getting overdone but unfortunately I never know when overdone gets too overdone and a retracement is in the works. I think a retracement back to 38.20% fib level is reasonable but just do not know when that will happen. Link

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 9:14:43 AM

I have been talking about not shorting Oil until you get a confirmation it is ready for a retracement and even then you will have to be really fast because I truly do not think Oil is a market you should be short right now.

Ditto for Gold.

Now the US$ - that is a market you should be selling on rallies. I am seriously thinking of going long the CDN$ but not too sure how to play it. I could use futures but the risk is too great. Anyone with suggestions out there? Link

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 9:09:42 AM

Take a guess which market was the strongest overnight? That is not much of a guessing game lately is it? The only market that broke its previous day high and to make a higher high was the NDX futures, NQ. Link

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 9:05:34 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Crude oil futures broke through $90 a barrel for the first time ever in the electronic trading session as continued weakness in the dollar and worries over supply security helped drive prices to record highs. The November-dated light-crude contract peaked at $90.02 a barrel before slipping back to trade down a penny at $89.46.

The dollar held close to the all-time low it set against the euro on Thursday. The European currency changed hands at $1.4286, having broken through the $1.43 barrier in the previous session.

Along with continued fears over supply disruption in Iraq, the news of a bomb attack against former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, which reportedly left at least 130 people dead, added to upward pressure on crude prices late in the previous session, said Edward Meir at MF Global.

While prices have been surging in recent sessions, volumes have been light, Meir said in a note to clients.

"This suggests that buyers are pushing prices higher in rather thin conditions with relative impunity -- perhaps not that surprising, as presumably there are not too many willing shorts out there," he said.

"We see little on the near-term crude horizon that will alter the bias towards buying the dips and driving prices even higher."

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 9:03:49 AM

Also late Thursday, AMD (AMD) beat revenue targets but also posted a bigger-than-expected loss of $396 million, or 71 cents a share, due to a $120 million charge related to its acquisition of ATI Technologies. Frankfurt-traded shares added 1.8%.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 9:02:50 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Google Inc. delivered against tall Wall Street expectations Thursday, posting third-quarter profit and sales that rose sharply from the same period last year.

But the Internet giant also said it has continued to spend heavily on growth and added an all-time high of more than 2,000 new employees during the period, sounding a note of caution for analysts and investors.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2007 9:02:09 AM

After the market opens Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will be speaking and investors will also be listening for any comments on the sagging dollar from the Group of Seven meeting starting later in the day in Washington.

Market Monitor Archives