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Jeff Bailey : 10/31/2007 1:23:47 AM

Forex Global Economic Calendar Link

Great Britain's Nationwide House Prices m/m will be closely monitored at 03:00 AM. (not by me, I'm off to bed).

Jeff Bailey : 10/31/2007 1:18:20 AM

Hang Seng ($HSI) Link

Shanghai ($SSEC) Link

FTSE-100 ($FTSE) Link

DAX ($DAX) Link

CAC-40 ($CAC) Link

S&P 500 ($SPX) Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/31/2007 1:13:07 AM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link ... currently up 26 points, or +0.16% at 16,677.

Session Low/High has been 16,553 / 16,693.

Should the low hold, then X would get the square(s) from 16,550-16,650 (3-box reversal).

This market (relative to China, Europe and U.S.) would get the current "troubled child" award in my opinion.

Jeff Bailey : 10/31/2007 1:07:31 AM

yg07z $785.60

Jeff Bailey : 10/31/2007 1:06:55 AM

EUR/JPY 165.622 x 165.657

Jeff Bailey : 10/31/2007 1:05:26 AM

USD/JPY 114.72 x 114.75 +0.09%

Jeff Bailey : 10/31/2007 1:04:07 AM

Japan Housing Starts (Y/Y) -44.0% Vs. -43.3%. Consensus was -32.00%.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 11:47:14 PM

yg07z ... $785.00

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 11:46:03 PM

EUR/JPY 165.718 x 165.758

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 11:45:11 PM

USD/JPY 114.74 x 114.77

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 11:44:40 PM

BOJ: Leaves Overnight Call Rate Unchanged at 0.50% ... Board Votes 8-1; Mizuno Voted Against.

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 11:34:14 PM

The DOW needs to hold above 13741 to maintain a bullish wave count so the bulls can't fool around tomorrow as that's only 50 points below today's close: Link

SPX barely broke its uptrend line from last Wednesday's low so same thing here--bulls need to rally this back up otherwise things will start to look more bearish. But it can drop down to to 1517 without hurting its bullish wave count: Link

NDX is a choppy mess but it's definitely struggling near the top of its longer term up-channels and the 2211 Fib projection (for two equal legs up from October 2002, the equivalent level SPX struggled with at 1563). Its pattern would actually look best with a down-up sequence to finish its rising wedge pattern. Whether we'll get that is a the real question. Link

The RUT has already overlapped the highs just above 817 and negated the same kind of bullish wave counts on the DOW and SPX. I don't see this one making a new high for the bounce but obviously if the others do then so will the RUT. But a break below 810 could be the heads up that we've seen the high. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 11:33:14 PM

Northern Calif. Hit By Earthquake; Preliminary Magnitude 5.6 ... DJ- A moderate earthquake shook the San Francisco Bay area Tuesday night, but there was no immediate word on any damage.

The quake had a preliminary magnitude of 5.6 and struck shortly after 8 p.m., about five miles northeast of Alum Rock and nine miles northeast of San Jose, according to the U.S. Geological Service.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 11:31:56 PM

Japan: Crude Oil Stockpiles fell by 2 million kiloliters from week earlier to 15.56 million kiloliters, or 97.9 million barrels.

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 11:21:56 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Approximate futures premium over cash (December futures):

YM -- +30
ES -- +5.50
NQ -- +13.50
ER -- +3.00

OI Technical Staff : 10/30/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 4:54:56 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Close out (bought back) the IHH-WJ at the offer of $0.60. We sold it NAKED for $1.45 on 10/24/07.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 4:36:15 PM

November Fed Fund futures (ff07x) go out 95.49. So (100 - 95.49) = 4.51%.

December Fed Fund futures (ff07z) go out 95.61. So (100 - 95.61) = 4.39%

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 4:27:33 PM

Top 40 Weighted OEX.X Components at this Link ... Kept same sort order as yesterday wrap. Yesterday's MM, with Market Cap displayed Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 4:11:55 PM

Should probably throw in XCI.X +0.77% for tech.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 4:10:33 PM


BIX.X -0.27%
+ XBD.X -1.11%
+ IUX.X -0.74%
+ TRAN -0.04%
- OIX.X -2.84%
- OIH -4.09%
XNG.X -0.87%
SPX -0.64%

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 4:04:27 PM

Economic reports on the docket for tomorrow include:

8:15a.m. ADP/Macroeconomic Advisors Employment Estimate Private Payrolls Forecast. Expected: +60K. Previous: +58K.

8:30a.m. 3Q GDP, Advance. Expected: +3%. Previous: +3.8%.

8:30a.m. 3Q Employment Cost Index. Expected: +0.9%. Previous: +0.9%.

9:45a.m. Oct Chicago PMI. Expected: 53. Previous: 54.2.

10:00a.m. Sep Construction Spending. Expected: -0.4%. Previous: +0.2%.

2:15p.m. FOMC interest rate decision expected.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 4:01:16 PM

CNBC reported today that oil analysts are looking for a build of 1.25 million barrels tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 4:00:20 PM

Oil Falls As Mexican Production Resumes (update) ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 3:57:21 PM

VIX.X alert! 21.06 +6.00% ... WEEKLY Pivot here.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 3:55:36 PM

Keltner support is holding so far, but the SPX is right now pressed up against the underside of that rising neckline for the H&S that's visible on the 15-minute chart. So, is that a confirmation or not? I wouldn't consider the formation fully confirmed, just tentatively, and I've made it clear that I don't trust any targets that are set during this period when we're waiting on the Fed announcement this week.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 3:55:07 PM

Swing trade NAKED PUT buy it back alert! ... Let's close out (buy back) the previously sold Intercontinental Exchange ICE Nov. $150 Put (IHH-WJ) at the offer of $0.60.

ICE $171.25 -1.02% ...

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 3:50:43 PM

In order to get a 5-wave impulsive decline from this afternoon's high (and I continue to look at the DOW and SPX for this) we need to see a little sideways/up consolidation and then another low. Since there's not enough time for that today and this could easily turn right around and head higher again, I'm taking profits now on my short from the 2:00 high and calling it a day for trading.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 3:45:38 PM

Depending on how you draw the neckline, the SPX has just pierced the rising neckline of a H&S on its 15-minute chart, forming since last Friday, when the right shoulder began to form. There's Keltner support just below the level being tested, so, although the formation has technically been confirmed, I wouldn't be counting my bear cubs just yet. Do be aware of this tentative confirmation. A jump back above 1534 will undo the confirmation.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 3:45:37 PM

VIX.X 20.92 +5.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 3:45:23 PM

Freeport McMoran (FCX) $114.50 -2.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 3:44:55 PM

Swing trade put alert! ... for one (1) of the Freeport McMoran FCX Dec. $115 Puts (FCX-XC) at the offer of $8.30.

Will use a stop on these at $121.00 in the underlying. Target $100.00.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 3:42:58 PM

The SPX has obviously not reached its potential upside target, and I attached some doubt to its ability to do so on today of all days. It has been reaching downside targets, though, so we should consider the next potential downside target and support at 1531.22 and then at 1529.01. It's hitting the top one as I type.

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 3:42:02 PM

If you shorted against the 2:00 high then that's obviously a good level to lower your stop to. Even bring it down to breakeven if can (but not lower than the dip near 2:30). I'm giving this a little breathing room to see if we get a 5-wave move down. Right now it's just a 3-wave pullback so far.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 3:39:46 PM

Freeport McMoran (FCX) $114.51 -2.85% ... giving it up to the close.

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 3:37:55 PM

STopped at 13848 - after all that time. :(

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 3:37:06 PM

Wash Mutual (WM) $28.11 +0.32% ... right around bearish exit of $28.06.

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 3:35:30 PM

I'm not sure what Wellcare Health Plans does but my guess is healthcare insurance. You may want to double check who your insurance plan is with.

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 3:34:30 PM

WCG. holy cow! Down over 100 points in just 6 days! (128 to 20) If you purchased the Nov 07 $20 puts last week you would have a 30-bagger!

Thanks for nothing Mark (wink)--we needed this information BEFORE the drop! This one is painful to look at--3 years of gains, poof! Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 3:30:34 PM

TRAN 4,850 +0.10% ... not that much going on.

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 3:29:18 PM

Don't you hate these trades that take forever and just play with you? I am still long YM from 13874 with a stop at 13848. I have been in and out of profit so many times I am dizzy.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 3:28:17 PM

DJUSHB 379 +1.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 3:27:36 PM

BIX.X 355.81 +0.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 3:26:37 PM

Thought we'd get a slight bid in XOM $91.06 -2.72% on oil's close.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 3:25:58 PM

Back below DAILY S1 ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 3:25:34 PM

YM long stopped alert! ... 13,864

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 3:23:29 PM

YM long adjust stop alert! at to 13,864

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 3:20:23 PM

The TRAN isn't doing anything over the last few hours: just going sideways. The USDJPY is actually being a bit volatile, jumping around between 114.60-115.00, but that means that it's neither breaking down below that 114.55-ish support nor breaking consistently above the 114.85-ish resistance, so it's not truly giving us any information, either.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 3:16:43 PM

YM long alert! ... here at 13,873. Stop tight at 13,866. Target a bounce to 13,895.

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 3:04:37 PM

Looking at the DOW's 5-min chart for today I see a sharp decline (looks impulsive) followed by a 3-wave correction (so far) of that decline and looking ready to tip back over. A short against the high of the bounce (just before 2:00) looks like a good short. We might get one more new high to finish the bounce so if stopped out look for bearish divergences against the last high as a signal to try it again when it rolls back over. The risk continues to be a choppy market.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 3:02:55 PM

The SPX maintains its potential upside target, now at 1543.84, but barely, and the 9-ema flattens again, perhaps suggesting that its support is weakening. It's just below the SPX's current 1536.22 level. (Sometimes I do miss QCharts, although I find my much cheaper charting service and feed to be reliable and have excellent customer service. With my current service, I can set up charts so I can put my cursor at a certain level and read that level or I can set them so that I can put the cursor on a candle and read all applicable data, but not both.)

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 2:46:17 PM

Citigroup (C) $42.20 -1.17% ... "bad tick" from 01:25-01:30 PM EDT to $40.01. Session low has been $41.82.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 2:42:22 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $34.28 +0.38% ... still no trade at WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 2:39:37 PM

Having dug, be ready to dig.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 2:38:34 PM

He dug, or dig an oil well?

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 2:38:09 PM

Proshares Ultra Oil & Gas (AMEX:DIG) $109.98 -5.76% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 2:37:20 PM

ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (AMEX:DUG) $40.65 +6.66% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 2:35:49 PM

Base Metals: NY Copper Declines On LME Stocks, Economic Worry

DJ- Copper futures retreated Tuesday as inventories rose further, economic worries pressed and the Federal Reserve meeting loomed, analysts said.

The most-active December copper contract fell 3.95 cents to settle at $3.4815 per pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The continuing surge in London Metal Exchange inventories are fueling worries about Chinese destocking, said Bart Melek, global commodity strategist with BMO Capital Markets.

Further, the metal fell as participants worried about the U.S. economy and the implications of the credit and housing problems on demand for the industrial metal, Melek said.

Inventories of copper stored in LME-monitored warehouses rose 3,250 metric tons Tuesday, leaving them at 160,750. The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Monday afternoon, were unchanged at 19,557 short tons.

"LME copper stocks are at their highest since end-April with inflows focused on Asian and European warehouses highlighting ongoing weak physical demand conditions," a Barclays Capital research note said.

"We've had a number of stock increases lately, some sizable," a trader said.

That and other indicators show recent tightness in the copper market is easing, further pressuring prices, the trader said.

Copper also traded down on general distaste for the state of the U.S. economy, such as relating to housing market woes, said Stephen Platt, analyst with Archer Financial Services.

Copper traders are "going from hand-to-mouth," waiting for more economic data before extending positions, Platt said. "Maybe some caution into the FOMC meeting."

Copper settlements (ranges include electronic and pit trading): Dec (HGZ07) $3.4815; down 3.95c; Range $3.4340-$3.5230

March (HGH08) $3.5020; down 3.45c; Range $3.4550-$3.5375

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 2:29:47 PM

SPX testing the 15-minute 9-ema now, with that at about 1535.85. If it maintains that support on a 15-minute close, it maintains its upside target of 1544.19, although I have some hesitation in believing any targets. This morning's downside one was nearly hit, within a few cents, but this heading-into-the-FOMC period is one when technical analysis sometimes proves less useful than is normal.

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 2:03:19 PM

Here's an update to the SPX 30-min chart I posted last night with the two scenarios for today into tomorrow: Link . The bearish (dark red) wave count calls for a failure of this afternoon's bounce and then a continuation lower into the close. So today's 1530 low is the key level for that move. The bullish (green) wave count calls for a continuation of the rally into tomorrow (yesterday's high near 1544 is the key level for that count).

For the bullish count the first upside Fib projection is just above 1551 and then 1564 above that. For the downside I would expect support to be found around 1520 (or gap closure near 1515). Now we'll let price tell us which scenario is playing out from here. Play the direction of the break of the first key level. In between could be a lot of chop.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 1:50:59 PM

The typical lunchtime lull thing happened, with the 15-minute 9-ema flattening and the SPX moving across to test the other side of the smallest channel, this being up in this case. After that test, we have to see what happens, the "absolutely anything can happen" that I mentioned earlier, and the reason that I cautioned bears not to hang on for the last few cents of their expected targets if the tenor seemed to be changing or if their account-appropriate stops were hit. The SPX now sets an upside target and potential resistance at 1544.46 as long as it's producing 15-minute closes above the 9-ema, now at about 1535.45. I'm not putting too much faith in these supposed targets, although the SPX certainly came within a few cents of its lower one. I'd offer the same caution to the bulls that I did to the bears earlier: keep raising your stops and honor them if hit.

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 2:14:12 PM

On the GLD 30-min chart you can see how price has broken below the 3rd uptrend line, similar to what I showed last night on the gold contract, and has been retesting it today. Based on this pattern I'd say GLD is a short here (or the contract or GG puts like Jeff did yesterday). It could continue to slide up underneath the broken uptrend line so keep a close eye on it. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 1:45:27 PM

The SPX did touch the top of its smallest channel, although it found resistance there at the end of the previous 15-minute period. This period appears to be a different story, with the top of that channel being turned up as the SPX climbs. The upper boundary of that small channel is now at about 1536.70, with the SPX above it, but barely.

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 1:44:32 PM

DAX is surging. Let's hope the DOW follows suit. Link

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 1:29:32 PM

We've either had a very small 4th wave correction for NDX and it's about to put in a final high or else it's just in the middle of a 4th wave correction with a leg down to go before the next push higher. Bulls be careful here. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 1:29:11 PM

Typical action these last few days for the time leading into the FOMC meeting. It's also typical to see a consolidation period after big gains, and the SPX gained more than 54 points during the course of four trading days.

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 1:42:34 PM

I am now long YM from 13874 with a stop at 13848 and a target at 13900. Good luck to you all who are on board.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 1:12:16 PM

The TRAN has been rising since about 11:30, reaching up toward a challenge of the day's high from which it quickly snapped back earlier today. The TRAN is at 4864 as I type, the day's high at 4877.36.

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 1:09:01 PM

I have raised my YM long to 13874 but still have my short at 13821.

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 1:01:35 PM

If the dollar is setting up for a big rally, and obviously that's yet to be determined, I wonder if it will start post-FOMC. And what would make the dollar rally? A Fed that doesn't lower interest rates again. Ouch for the stock market if that happens.

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 12:58:43 PM

The US dollar is still hunting for a bottom (I think). It's pressing against the bottom of its parallel down-channel for price action since January and has bullish divergences on every single time frame, from 5-min to monthly. Once its downtrend line from August breaks, currently near 77.50, it should come shooting out of there: Link

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 1:01:46 PM

I suspect Gold will sell off into the FED meeting and if we are lucky can pick some more up at around 760.00. Link

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 12:56:54 PM

As I mentioned earlier, the SPX sometimes crosses the entire width of its smallest Keltner channel during the lunchtime lull, with the 15-minute 9-ema flattening and no longer providing the support or resistance it did earlier. The top of that channel is now at 1535.84 but is still descending. The SPX tests the 15-minute 9-ema now, with that average just a few cents below the current 1533.98 level. Watch for potential resistance here or up to 1535.84 on 15-minute closes, but, honestly, leading into the FOMC decision tomorrow, absolutely anything can happen.

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 12:51:26 PM

For gold to be bearish from here I'd like to see two things and they're all related--the US dollar needs to rally and oil should also decline now. Here's the daily chart of USO and why I think it too just saw a top: Link . The Fib projection at 72.68 is based on an extended 1st wave in the move up from August. What this typically means is waves 3 through 5 will equal the 1st wave and that's what I'm showing.

In order for this wave count to be correct the current leg up from Oct 23rd can't get above 73.93 (the key level for the bulls shown on the chart) because then the 3rd wave would be the shortest and that's an EW no-no. I haven't checked but USO probably still doesn't have stock to short but look for other ways to play the oil market to the short side based on what I'm seeing here.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 12:42:33 PM

I need to step out for about an hour.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 12:42:04 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 12:38:50 PM

For the past week I've been showing short play setups for gold on the December gold contract (GC07Z). Here's the daily chart of the Streettracks gold (GLD): Link . Notice the very nice (if you're thinking short on gold) hammer at resistance at the top of its parallel up-channel from 2006. Price now appears ready to drop back inside a rising wedge pattern and leaving a bearish divergence at the last high. What's not to like about this chart if you're looking for a short on gold? A stop on a new short entry is at a new high (above 78.28).

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 12:37:20 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $248.51 -2.27% ... here's the PnF chart ($4 box size) where I show the POTENTIAL setup for a bearish triangle. Link

IF, and I do mean if, this begins to unfold, I may "lower" target from current $216 to $204 for the PTR-WL's.

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 12:32:01 PM

Internals are not bullish, unfortunately though they are not overly bearish either. Link

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 12:30:16 PM

If Crude gets back to around $85.00/bl I think it will prove to be another place to try and get long again. I was sorry I did not take a long when this market showed me the support it had at $79.00/bl and the same scenario could play out again at $85.00/bl. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 12:28:32 PM

A bit of a triangle/pennant pattern developing in PTR. However, for the PnF bullish, or bearish triangle to develop, need a MINIMUM of 5 columns alternating X and O with lower highs and higher lows. Only way we get a "bearish triangle" is for PTR to trade $240, then reverse up 3-boxes to $252 (bullish triangle would be a following trade at $260; (bearish triangle would be after the reversal up to $252, get the 3-box reversal back lower to $240, with the sell signal at $236).

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 12:17:33 PM

Hmmm ... ONNN $10.17 -16.57% ... GREEN #2.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 12:15:23 PM

IUX.X 382.19 -0.19% ... WEEKLY Pivot at 378.31.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 12:14:42 PM

XBD.X 232.31 -1.36% ... WEEKLY Pivot at 229.01.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 12:14:02 PM

BIX.X 333.52 -0.60% ... WEEKLY Pivot here.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 12:13:08 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 4,855 +0.21% ... WEEKLY Pivot here.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 12:12:26 PM

The USDJPY remains above that 114.55-ish support zone. It's at 114.69 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 12:09:34 PM

Will wait and see what happens after Fed meeting, but MFE rather strong in my opinion. Based on observation.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 12:08:40 PM

McAfee (MFE) $40.24 +0.85% ... acting NOTHING like SYMC did.



What's up with that?

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 12:05:40 PM

CNOOC (CEO) $210.05 -1.18% ... sits at RED #6. Almost profiled a day trade short at $212.40, but I have an appointment at 01:00 PM EDT.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 11:58:09 AM

The SPX approached but didn't quite touch that downside target and potential support on its 15-minute chart. The 9-ema, presumed resistance, is at about 1534.50, but as the lunchtime lull approaches, that 9-ema sometimes flattens and prices sometimes cross it to go to the other side of the smallest Keltner channel. That's at 1537.11 now.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 11:58:06 AM

Countrywide Financial (CFC) $16.00 -4.93% ... does get a 3-box reversal back lower with today's trade at $16.00. Hasn't come back to 10/26/07 day trade short entry of $15.17, or stop of $15.51.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 11:56:03 AM

Merrill Lynch (MER) $64.79 -3.90% ... after kiss of WEEKLY Pivot ($64.30). The "troubled child" of late. #10 weighting in XLF.

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 11:55:00 AM

I have a buy on the YM at 13871 (just about got ticked into that one) and a sell at 13821.

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 11:45:37 AM

Mother (MER) is not doing so well today, down -4.4% and dropping to a new daily low as I type. Banks and brokers are weak. Speaking of which, and in case you missed it, I thought Jeff did a good job analyzing them in last night's Wrap.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 11:40:44 AM

The OEX target and potential support is 715.35 as long as 15-minute closes remain below the 9-ema now just above 717.50. Next support is 713.53. Again, don't be insistent on the last few cents you expected to gain if market conditions change and look less bearish. Reset your stops as the OEX moves lower and honor the ones you've set.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 11:39:20 AM

SPX target and potential support on 15-minute closes is now at 1529.79. Support below that is at 1527.16. As long as the SPX closes 15-minute periods below the 9-ema, now at about 1534.50, that target is preserved, but keep your stops in place if in bearish plays and don't be insistent on the last $0.15 you expected if market conditions look as if they're changing.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 11:25:44 AM

Oh "shoot!" Smith & Wesson (SWHC) $12.68 -36.88% ... (see Friday evening's/Saturday morning's MM at 12:48:20 AM) Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 11:19:02 AM

QWest Comm. (Q) $7.23 -11.61% ... notably weak.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 11:16:00 AM

The OEX's downside target is 715.18 as long as it maintains 15-minute closes beneath the 9-ema now at 718.28. Again, I advise some wariness in believing too wholeheartedly in any of these targets today.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 11:17:12 AM

The SPX's downside target now at 1529.46 and perhaps even 1526.99 is still maintained, but I still would advise some wariness in believing too wholeheartedly in any of these targets. This target is maintained as long as 15-minute closes remain below the 9-ema, now at 1535.79.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 11:09:55 AM

On 10/26/07, TRID found its session low at about 11:15:00 AM EDT. Never did trade its RED #2.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 11:07:29 AM

Maybe know "what to expect" or look for today from ONNN.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 11:06:57 AM

Trident Micro (TRID) $7.65 +3.09% ... juuuuust above our RED #1 from 10/26/07 day trade.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 11:05:36 AM

ON Semiconductor (ONNN) $9.81 -19.52% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 10:59:24 AM

On 10/11/07 the USD/JPY closed 117.27.

EWJ $14.28 here.

Either EWJ needs to be shorted, or equity side of things calls for dollar strength against the yen in the not too distant future.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 10:54:44 AM

iShares Japan (EWJ) $14.27 -0.41% ... after closing out puts at $13.80, recent bounce high has been $14.34. You and I put/shorted the EWJ on 10/11 at $14.49.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 10:49:51 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) $72.98 -2.87% ... back to test its post-earnings low.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 10:50:12 AM

The USDJPY is at 114.65, again holding above the 114.55-ish zone that was support during our trading session, but not during Japan's. A drop below 114.36 would confirm a double-top formation on the 15-minute chart (all trading periods), but we're far from that yet.

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 10:47:45 AM

GOOG is powering higher and is certainly helping keep NDX afloat this morning. Up more than $15 to $695 at this morning's high (pulled back slightly since then) it looks like it's heading for the top of its channel again, right at $700 today. You can see what looks like a 5-wave move up from the Oct 16 low (611.99), labeled wave-4 on the chart, and bearish divergences with this new high (fits for a 5th wave). Link

Based on this wave count, the top of the channel at $700, round number resistance and the negative divergences, this is a sweet setup for a short play. This one is dangerous for bears so play it carefully and risk money only. (There's still Cramer's $741 upside target, said tongue in cheek.)

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 10:46:09 AM

SLV and GLD up 5.45% and 5.79% for their 20-dayNet.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 10:45:11 AM

Probably do NOT want to be putting on a day trade short in a miner at this point. (see currencies, GG/HUI.X at DAILY S2)

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 10:44:04 AM

Select Financial SPDRs (XLF) $33.52 -0.79% ... MONTHLY 38.2% is $33.45.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 10:42:56 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 334.31 -0.37% ... after first kiss of WEEKLY Pivot (see 10:28:43).

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 10:40:39 AM

Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 420.37 -1.93% ... it and GG sitting on their DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 10:39:18 AM

Goldcorp (GG) $33.67 -2.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 10:38:36 AM

USD/JPY 114.657 ... call it unchanged.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 10:37:52 AM

EUR/USD $1.4422 ... call it unchanged.

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 10:36:01 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $71.27 -1.69% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 10:35:38 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $77.39 -0.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 10:35:17 AM

iShares Silver (SLV) 141.65 -1.55% ...

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 10:44:09 AM

SPX 1529.31 potential target is still valid, at least on a Keltner basis and at least so far. I'm not entirely trustful of this downside target, however, as I expressed earlier.

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 10:32:06 AM

Techs are holding up pretty well and as long as that remains true I don't think the bears have much to gain here. The market remains fractured and that could mean just a lot of chop today.

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 10:30:52 AM

The NDX futures are the only market to not break their previous day lows and are now challenging their daily highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 10:29:16 AM

Financial Select SPDRs (XLF) $33.48 -0.94% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/30/2007 10:28:43 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 333.39 -0.64% ... testing WEEKLY Pivot here.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 10:19:33 AM

Two repos have been announced this morning, for a total of $17.000 billion. Since only $8.750 billion mature today, that makes a net add of $8.250 billion and raises the amount sloshing through the system to $48.000 billion. That's the biggest net add that I remember in a while.

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 10:12:40 AM

The only problem with the downside projection for SPX (looking for an a-b-c pullback with those downside projections) is that the DOW doesn't fit that pattern very well. It looks like it might have formed a top yesterday and supports the more bearish view that we'll get a steeper selloff today and then a bounce into tomorrow's FOMC. The first low this morning should hold on any retest if the bears are in control now (still commenting on SPX and DOW).

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 10:09:00 AM

Breaking to new daily lows (except the techs) so the tone has turned bearish. I had mentioned two equal legs down for ES from yesterday morning's high and for SPX that was at 1535.43. The next downside target where the 2nd leg down would be 162% of the 1st is at SPX 1530.34, so another 2 points lower.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 10:08:46 AM

No bounce. The SPX pushes through that potential support instead. I neglected to put next potential support. It's at 1526.47 and 1528.69 on 15-minute closes, and the higher of those is now a potential downside target.

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 10:06:59 AM

VIX is now confirming the bearishness and making new daily highs.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 10:05:30 AM

The SPX is sitting right on that 15-minute 45-ema. The TRAN is pulling back from the just-reached morning high. If the SPX bounces here, watch for potential resistance at the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1538.68. Don't count on this stuff being too reliable, though, as it typically becomes less so coming into a FOMC meeting.

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 10:05:00 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer confidence continued to slide in October, the Conference Board said Tuesday, hitting its lowest level since October 2005 after Hurricane Katrina hit. The consumer confidence index fell to 95.6 in October from a revised 99.5 in September. Overall, consumers were less upbeat about the job market, according to the Conference Board. Economists had expected the index to slip to 98.0. The present situation index in October fell to 118.8 from 121.2 in the prior month, while the expectations index declined to 80.1 from 85.0. The present situation and expectations indexes also hit their lowest levels since late 2005.

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 10:03:08 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities fell 4.4% in the past year as of August, according to the Case-Shiller price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's.

Prices fell 0.8% in the 20 cities between July and August, the fastest monthly decline in the seven-year history of the 20-city index.

Prices in the original 10-city index had fallen 5% since August 2006, the fastest annual decline since 1991.

Prices have been down on a year-over-year basis for eight straight months.

"The fall in home prices is showing no real signs of a slowdown or turnaround," said Robert J. Shiller, co-creator of the index and chief economist for MacroMarkets LLC.

The Case-Shiller index, which tracks multiple sales of the same homes, is considered by many observers to be the best gauge of national and metro real-estate values.

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 10:01:30 AM

Market did not like the consumer confidence number. I will get those numbers as soon as I can.

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 9:59:39 AM

Remember Consumer Confidence out at 10:00 today.

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 9:58:53 AM

AD volume absolute line is falling but the ratio is climbing telling me the absolute will begin climbing shortly. VIX is not making new daily lows or highs so it is not telling me much. I do see the USDJPY making new daily lows though. All in all not much to work with here.

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 9:53:20 AM

They're still liking the techs the best and that shows us there's a bullish undertone to the market this morning. That's a warning to the bears for now to not get aggressive. It's way too early for that.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 9:49:24 AM

FWIW, the TRAN is bouncing, and is already positive for the day. It's bouncing within a consolidation zone, so this doesn't mean much for the TRAN itself, but it's a bit of a contrarian indicator for the SPX, OEX and Dow today. It doesn't prove anything, but it does urge caution about bearish expectations.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 9:44:51 AM

The OEX's 15-minute 45-ema is at 717.61 and it looks as if it's holding as support for now, too.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 9:43:59 AM

So far, the SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is holding as support, but there are still 5 minutes left in this 15-minute period. Here's the chart: Link

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 9:42:26 AM

Looking at YM shows the bearish setup as it jumped up to the top of its gap and stalled so short against about 13880 and long against a daily low below 13848. It's not much to play with but a break of one of those should lead to a tradeable move.

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 9:39:21 AM

Nice jump off the opening so let's see if they can hold it now on any retest. A long trade could set up on a retest that shows bullish divergence, stop at a new daily low. Beware the chop and whipsaws though.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 9:37:44 AM

I, like Keene, wonder if we're just seeing the down-a-little part of the up-a-little/down-a-little typical consolidation pattern before an FOMC meeting decision is announced. Would-be bears should be aware that, just as gains were tapped yesterday, losses might be today. So far, it looks as if bears have most internals and indicators going their way, but be careful about expectations. From experience, it's far more likely today and into tomorrow that technical analysis will be less useful than is typical rather than more useful.

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 9:35:02 AM

AD line has now fallen to -830 and both AD line and volume are pointing downward.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 9:33:36 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 45-ema is at 1535.10. That could be potential support on 15-minute closes. It's being tested now and may be pierced, but we'll have to see if the 15-minute period closes above or below it to determine if the support actually held.

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 9:31:31 AM

AD line opens at -276.

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 9:25:29 AM

I have found drawing trendlines to be a less than perfect art and never sure which set to use. The blue trendlines join swing lows from the low at 12517 (August lows) and the magenta channel uses the lows from the next day yet I like the magenta upward channel better. Link

Keene Little : 10/30/2007 9:24:35 AM

I was looking for a pullback today and it's going to start with a bang with a sizeable gap down after equity futures steadily dropped during overnight action. Two equal legs down from yesterday morning's high for ES is at 1540.75 which has been exceeded slightly this morning (1539.50) but watch for the possibility of a drop n pop at the open.

It's possible the market will get a sense that there's really no reason to rally post-FOMC and start taking profits today but there's an equal chance we'll either stay on hold and chop sideways or even continue the rally as bulls position for an assumed rally after the Fed gives them what they want. But you know how assume is spelled.

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 9:14:45 AM

I am bullish longer term but never want to tell that bias overrule the possibility I am wrong. So I follow the charts looking for the nugget of information that tells me that things may be happening that I need to pay attention to, things like the possible head and shoulders building on the Russell 2000 cash chart. Link

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 9:17:01 AM

Crude down, Gold down and US$ up so all these relationships are in sync.

If you read Linda's post you know the USDJPY is in rally mode and for the last month or, so since Linda brought this currency pair to my attention, it has been a leading indicator for the major American markets. Link

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 9:05:11 AM

Lower highs and lows is you definition for the bears have control. Both the S&P and DOW futures have even breached their previous day lows. Link

Jane Fox : 10/30/2007 9:00:05 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Many economists believe the Federal Reserve will cut its policy interest-rate target by a quarter-percentage point to 4.5% on Wednesday to contain the risks that financial market turmoil could continue, possibly leading to a recession.

"The risk of a financial-market disruption spilling over into real economic activity is too serious for the Fed to ignore," said Kevin Logan, U.S. economist at Dresdner Kleinwort, in a note to clients. "Not easing at this juncture runs the risk of a financial market catastrophe and a possible recession."

Simply put, economists said the debt crisis is not over, and the danger exists that banks won't be able to make loans and mortgages, even to buyers with good credit history and high income.

Under the risk-management approach, the Fed reacts to an event that may not be probable but would be damaging if it occurred.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 8:27:52 AM

Overnight, the USDJPY continued lower until after the Nikkei closed. Then it climbed up to the same resistance area into which it climbed after the Nikkei closed night before last. As I said yesterday, these moves that occur when both primary markets in the currency pair (U.S. and Japan's, in this case) are more suspect than moves that occur while at least one is trading. I do like to include overnight data in this because the Nikkei is open part of the night and moves can come on important developments and strong volume. That period after the Nikkei closes and our markets open might be likened to moves that occur during the lunchtime lull or maybe even in pre-market on our futures: something to watch but suspect.

The USDJPY is at 114.81 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 10/30/2007 8:22:03 AM

A repo of $8.750 billion matures today.

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