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Keene Little : 11/20/2007 11:39:04 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

The price pattern has become potentially very bearish if Tuesday's lows don't hold. But until they're broken we should see a higher bounce into the end of the week or beginning of next. Just watch out for those whipsaws.
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

Equity futures are pulling back fairly deep this evening (ES is down 10.50 points to 1435.50 at this hour) and ideally the bulls will need prices to hold above the first bounce in the late afternoon just before the market took off to the upside (the high near 2:40 PM). A bounce off Tuesday afternoon's low that creates a 5-wave move up should then be followed by another one after pulling back. But any lower than that first bounce level (so ES 1433.25, SPX 1429.92) would leave the afternoon bounce as corrective and point to the possibility for lower lows out of the gate.

OI Technical Staff : 11/20/2007 9:59:59 PM

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Jim Brown : 11/20/2007 9:45:40 PM

Crude hit $99.29 at 8:30 PM, can $100 be far away?

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 7:24:40 PM

YM opening tick at 07:15 PM EST was 13,032.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 7:50:18 PM

Buddy of mine called earlier this evening, told me this was a "good read" and something he and I had talked about a couple of weeks ago redarding MS's call. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 7:03:40 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 7:04:27 PM

Good gravy! 07/05/07 Closing U.S. Market Watch Link

If you had told me the BIX.X would be down 30% from its 07/05/07 close and SPX would be down just 5.6%, I'd have probably told you, "you're dreaming."

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 6:53:30 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Closed out the DUG at $42.66. (stop was $42.70, but rather illiquid nature was $42.66)

Moved CFC into Watch List.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 6:49:55 PM

7/05/07 closing internals Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 6:39:04 PM

Fascinating stuff.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 6:38:58 PM

Ah the "dreamers" and the "realists" ... let's see. It has split 2:1.

RIMM $110.00 +1.65% at tonight's close. Recent all-time high was $137.01. Would be $274.02 pre-split.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 6:35:15 PM

NYSE Summation ($NYSI) "still in a column of O to 100.00. Closing measure 158.98. Needed 160.00 to get a 3-box reversal." Link

Today still in a column of O at -559.31.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 6:31:11 PM

Hey ... SPX NH/NL finished 44:2

RUT NH/NL finished 85:38

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 6:30:07 PM

AAPL $168.92 +3.03% ... at tonight's close.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 6:29:42 PM

CROX $38.62 -1.52% at tonight's close.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 6:28:52 PM

ERTS $55.00 -1.34% at tonight's close.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 6:27:47 PM

What was going on back then?

07/05/07 MM Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 6:24:11 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $130.33 +0.56% ... conventional $1 box (from $20-$100) and $2 (>$200) at this Link

Now StockCharts.com's Link (note it doesn't reflect DIA trade at $140 in July due to dividend paid).

Somebody paid $140.00 for it.

MM Trade blotter shows us selling long DAW-HE on 7/12/07 at $137.61 for +27.27% and then another on 7/13/07 at $139.23 for +57.14% from 7/05/07 entries of $135.62 and $136.15.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 6:07:01 PM

Doh! ... INDU/DIA don't trade overnight do they? Why derive pivot levels from YM extended then?

Just doesn't make sense does it?

That's why some trader's pivot levels never match what is actually traded in the futures.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 6:03:31 PM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 50-point box (regular session only) Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 6:02:01 PM

YM night trader's 5-minute interval chart is ready to go ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 5:56:56 PM

See any correlations?

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 5:55:08 PM

YM Pivot Levels for tomorrow 11/21/2007 at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 5:49:46 PM

CBOE official close for YM is 13,050. Settled 13,060.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 5:47:51 PM

YM 5-minute interval recap. I went back to some of my "internals" posts and marked them on each 5-minute bar. Link

If you were day trading the YM today, what "adjustments" did you make with your "dynamic" (pink) retracement today?

What did you do with it yesterda? The day before, and before that?

Any one direction tend to stick out? (dragging it up, or dragging it down)

Probably "pulled it up" a little after 10:05 AM EDT to 13,132.

But then pulled it "way down" from the earlier 09:30-35 low. Eventually left the low juuuuuust above DAILY S2 at 12,863. How about 8 points above.

That is.... unless you use extended session high/low to derive pivot levels.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 4:55:22 PM

YM 13,058 ... 6 minutes to close.

Tab Gilles : 11/20/2007 4:54:09 PM

Six year chart of $COMPQ & $BPCOMPQ Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 4:46:24 PM

YM 13,068 ... 15-minute to close.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 4:21:44 PM

Remember! for the YM, you've got 28 NYSE-listed stocks, and 2 NASDAQ listed stocks. So, a YM trader wants to utilize TRIN and NYSE internals.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 4:19:19 PM

After YM closes ... I'm going to post the rest of today's action.

Then, go back to today's "internals" observations and see what, if any accurate read they gave on things.

What should be apparent is that decision points are made at PRICE LEVELS (entry, target and stop) and internals become an IMPORTANT secondary observation.

Once you can see it intra-day, then you can build out and think one-day at a time, then a week (5-days), then two weeks (10-days).

For an institution, a week is probably equivalent to what you and I think of a day.

That's why declines and rallies tend to last much longer and end up BIGGER than most could have imagined.

Especially when all they look at is an intra-day chart.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 4:09:24 PM

So ... TODAY we realize that oil hits another new high, yet DUG nowhere near its recent lows.

Make an adjustment to actually think that it is just a "dislike of equity" that could have DUG up here, and not down at first entry from 11/01/07 at $40.35.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 4:07:25 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow:

10:00a.m. Nov Conference Board Leading Indicators. Previous: +0.3%.

10:00a.m. End-Nov Reuters/U Of Mich Sentiment Index. Expected: 75.0. Previous: 80.9.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 4:06:56 PM

What would it take for that to happen?

Probably an "oil glut" where oil prices could fall, but with continued dollar weakness?

Just depends doesn't it.

Dollar could remain weak under the backdrop of a slowing economy, or recession, and with U.S. budget deficit, dollar continues to weaken.

It will be the trader(s) that don't grasp the fundamental concept and pick up on the DIVERGENCE, or change from what we've been seeing the past couple of months, that gets sideways.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 4:03:03 PM

What is keeping me on my toes with oil, is that I do think at some point, the tie with dollar and oil is going to unravel.

That is, we'll start to see some type of DIVERGENCE from the past, and despite either dollar weakness/strength and a DIVERGENCE with oil weakness/strength, there will be a group that sticks with what has been working. And they'll do it to a margin call.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 4:00:40 PM

Check out what time that "decent" buy program came in. That right as crude oil at the NYMEX closed.

Question is, is any of the bearishness we see in broader equity attributed to "dollar" or "oil?" ... Or "oil" then "dollar?"

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:53:00 PM

"ping" ... YM 13,057 ... did nut'n today. (wink)

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:51:08 PM

Yesterday's finishing NYSE NH/NL daily ratio was 6.4%.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:50:35 PM

NYSE NH/NL 39:601 ... 6.1%

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:49:53 PM

NYSE A/D 1,620:1,688

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:49:37 PM

TRIN 0.93

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:48:23 PM

The reason I note NVR, is it is a homebuilder that has NOT exceeded to the downside its most recent 52-week low of $398.96 from 10/17/07. Recent high right back at that $525 level.

traded NVR long here in the MM from $477.40 to $486 from 10/10 to 10/11.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 3:47:20 PM

Impressive little rally but the bulls have a lot of work ahead of them. I think they can do it but they will have to prove it to me. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:42:13 PM

That has to be it doesn't it? Perhaps a more middle-income home buyer prospect, credit score 700-750 (which is a good score) may be seen as having difficulty getting a decent financing rate in months to come?

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:40:09 PM

DJUSHB 289.19 -5.80% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:39:48 PM

NVR Inc. (NVR) $454.94 +0.77% ... higher-end home builder.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:37:54 PM

Countrywide (CFC) $9.68 -8.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:37:32 PM

Morgan Stanley (MS) $50.12 -1.97% ... tries to reclaim its 11/07/07 low.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:36:31 PM

YM 13,027

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:36:02 PM

NYSE NH/NL 38:589 ... 6.1%

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 3:35:53 PM

They're late and most of the soldier bulls are dead but it looks like the cavalry has finally arrived for the rescue.

Jim Brown : 11/20/2007 3:35:19 PM

Shorts starting to get squeezed. Once over 13000 it could get interesting.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:34:59 PM

NYSE A/D 1,398:1,892

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:34:47 PM

TRIN 1.08

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:28:56 PM

SPY $143.39 ...

DUG $42.06

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:28:30 PM

Decent buy program coming in.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:25:03 PM

Ya don't hear anything about dollar and nat gas do you?

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:24:09 PM

Nat. Gas -3.87%, but that's been the weaker of the four.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:23:44 PM

DUG $42.75 -3.93% ...

SPY $142.41 ... just get the "sense" that bullish bids are soft. Oil is closed and now it is just the "equity trade." I see more RISK in a DUG right now than I do reward headed into the energy commodity open.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:16:01 PM

YM 12,919

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:15:28 PM

NYSE A/D 37:574 ... ratio 6.06%

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:13:41 PM

TRIN 1.36

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:13:32 PM

NYSE a/d 1,144:2,146

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 3:12:57 PM

Gold and Crude move in unison so Gold is in rally mode today as well. Before I show a chart of the US$ or before you look take a wild guess as to what it is doing? Link

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 3:11:15 PM

Crude found support at $90.00 and it has been up up and away ever since. Now the $64,000 question is will it make a double top or a higher high? Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:10:14 PM

DUG $42.71 -4.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:07:48 PM

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) $32.59 -3.12% ... has slipped below its 50-day SMA ($33.63). 150-day SMA at $26.52.

It idn't US, but it is non ferrous.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:05:48 PM

Freeport McMoran (FCX) $90.36 -2.31% ... probes its rising 150-day SMA. Check out action a few days ago at its 50-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 3:03:45 PM

DJ- NYMEX Crude Ends At $98.01/Bbl, Up $3.37

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:56:18 PM

China Tel (CHA) updated chart from the 11/13/07 market monitor Link

Jim Brown : 11/20/2007 2:55:16 PM

Jeff, for those readers not watching CNBC can you post that useful comment?

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:52:29 PM

Great comment from CNBC guest. Useful tests going forward from the institutional side.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:51:33 PM

Still, check out China Tel (CHA) $73.38 +8.63% ... its session high has been MONTHLY S1 ($76.39) and that darned trending higher 50-day SMA ($75.50).

21-day SMA at $76.21.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:50:02 PM

China Bancorp and Aluminum Corp China (ACH) were the two names.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:49:13 PM

CNBC guest discussing some of his fund's "China" stocks. Even though he is really BULLISH them still, their breaks below 50-day SMA has them taking some money off the table as they violated the 50-day SMA, which he deemed a negative technical.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:45:21 PM

Dollar Index (DXY) 75.18 -0.78% (30-minute delayed) ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:44:32 PM

SPY $142.75 -0.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:42:58 PM

Swing trade bearish long stopped alert! on DUG $42.66.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:41:12 PM

DIG $102.16 +4.40% ...

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 2:40:31 PM

DOW dropped down to its 12846 Fib projection and needs to hold here if the bulls want a chance to put something together tomorrow and Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:37:52 PM

We'll try and let the "negative taste" for equity carry DUG where it will. But if oil stays up here, and MARKET rallies, this position is of little good to our account.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:37:00 PM

Swing trade bearish long raise stop alert! ... for the UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG) $42.73 -3.97% ... to $42.70.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:33:56 PM

This is where I think we "exit stage left" for DUG.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:33:05 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $77.01 +3.38% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:31:22 PM

SPY $142.33 -0.99% ...

DUG $43.10 -3.14% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:29:56 PM

If I were long, and I'm not, I'd be protecting a "small to mid-cap" gain in Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $55.01 +1.49% Link ... gave a "sell signal" at $50 and has come all the way back. If I didn't get out at "the top" and with RUT acting the way it is, with non ferrous metals acting the way they are ....

Jim Brown : 11/20/2007 2:27:55 PM

Nice of the Fed to change the FOMC minutes to today instead of an even lighter volume day on Wednesday as it was originally scheduled. However, it does appear the markets have gone dormant since the release. Wonder if we are going to get one more major move before the day is out and then tomorrow will be a ghost town?

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:25:43 PM

SPY $143.03 -0.50% ... WEEKLY Pivot at $147.38. WEEKLY S1 has been traded at $142.66.

Analysis: no panic at this point.

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 2:24:50 PM

It's been a subdued reaction to the FOMC minutes, at least in equities. I noticed the euro and gold shot higher (so the dollar lower) and the further weakening in the dollar suggests worries about the Fed cutting rates further. But the wave pattern for the euro looks like this push to a new high could be the final 5th wave and a sharp reversal in it could mean sharp reversals for the dollar and the metals (and oil).

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:24:33 PM

VIX 26.30 ... smack on its WEEKLY Pivot (26.29)

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:20:30 PM

If I were Long, long, long, long, long, I would have gone IN-THE-MONEY with the SPY put. And perhaps more than one (1) for a $10,000.00 trading account.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:19:30 PM

My two (2) "bullish bias" trades are BELOW their enty points (over to the right of the trade blotter), so it would take a pretty good SURGE HIGHER to have those two positions help me out much.

I KNEW that before I put on the SFB-XL.

So, I go OUT-THE-MONEY and reduce some capital at RISK.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:16:10 PM

Trade Blotter of CLOSED and currently OPEN profiles at this Link

The MARKET can't take away the $1,000.11 unless I let it.

What happens to my account if the market PLUNGES? What happens to my account of the market SURGES?

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 2:07:37 PM

FOMC Minutes (16 pages) from 10/30-31 2007 Link

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 2:01:15 PM

Couldn't get much flatter and right in the middle of today's range as we wait for the minutes now (and the reaction).

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:59:25 PM

That's probably "our guy" should SPY trade $160.00.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:58:45 PM

That's "our guy" should SPY trade $138.00.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:58:20 PM

Altria (MO) $73.75 -0.12% ... no worse for wear.

Tab Gilles : 11/20/2007 1:56:24 PM

How does the old saying go? Thanksgiving is for the bears...and Christmas for the bulls.

Looking at both the NYA & NDX indexes, using the volatility index, bullish percentage and Hi/low oscillator on a weekly chart. I would say the correction is about over. This is the seasonally strong time of year for the stock market when year-end pension funding typically helps start a rally. Link Link

The SPX is expected to re-test the August lows? It could happen...we could see a quick and swift 1 or 2 day decline and a just as sharp snapback rally. Link

Whats weighing in is fear and currently the dollar (OPEC/oil). Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:48:30 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 1:44:24 PM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their previous day ranges. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:41:30 PM

StockCharts' NYSE Bullish % ($BPNYA) Link

Dorsey's BPNYSE was 38% on chart (36.40%) last night.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:38:18 PM

With these BULLISH %, you're using them to establish a RISK profile within a range of 0%-100%. Then using them to assess internal strength/weakness of raw supply/demand.

Then for position size in the context of your account size, and holdings.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:36:51 PM

Here's StockCharts.com's equivalent ($BPCOMPQ) Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:35:59 PM

Actually, that's the LOWEST reading going waaaay back to March of 2003.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:35:02 PM

I should also note that at last night's close, Dorsey's BPOTC had fallen to 32.00% on chart (31.65% actual). The 32.00% was BELOW the recent inflection low found in August.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:30:01 PM

At yesterday's close, Dorsey/Wright's BPSPX was at 40% on chart. Actual was 38.35.

So, of the 500 Pnf charts, 38.35%, or roughly 193 were still showing a PnF "buy signal" still intact.

That means roughly 307 were showing "sell signals."

By "roughly" I mean within 1 stock.

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 1:28:00 PM

The DOW shows two equal legs down (at 12904) from last Wednesday's high and as I showed yesterday this could set up a strong rally back up to the 13500 area. That's what has me wondering how the market might react to the FOMC minutes. But DOW 12900 needs to hold now, or else. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:26:36 PM

StockCharts' S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) and conventional 2% box chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:24:39 PM

NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 2,019.72 -0.07% ... 20-point box chart Link

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 1:22:53 PM

New lows but bullish divergences are still holding. I'm beginning to wonder if we're seeing this selling in front of the FOMC minutes out of fear of what it might say. If it's benign we could see a big relief rally. That's obviously just speculation on my part.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 1:14:45 PM

If Ya'll want to see the internals in sync and bearish print out these charts. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:14:25 PM

DUG $43.15 -3.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:13:38 PM

SPX Alert! 1,426.39 -0.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:12:59 PM

VIX.X 26.31 +1.15% ... this is the "premium" measure.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:12:30 PM

Understand my SPY put as it relates to last night's market wrap, and my current OPEN MM Profiles.

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 1:11:56 PM

SPX just broke yesterday's low and that brings the more bearish wave pattern to the front of the pack. Downside potential at this point is to about 1420 if the bullish divergences hold otherwise down to 1400 (bottom of parallel down-channel) could be the next stop. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:11:53 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bearish position in the SPX/SPY.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:11:32 PM

Swing trade put alert! ... for one (1) of the S&P Depository Receipts SPY Dec. $142 Puts (SFB-XL) at the offer of $3.75.

No stop for now, target $138.00.

SPY $143.00

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 1:09:49 PM

Seems all of us are commenting on the Russell weakness today however I think the SPX will be the next to take a further plunge. Link

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 1:07:50 PM

The Russell 2000 small cap index is very weak today and is leading its large cap brethren downward. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:06:52 PM

CFC $8.61 -8.5% ... "Houston, we have a problem"

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 1:02:02 PM

$RUT 4-point box Link ... in such a rush to meet 07:00 PM deadline for Wrap, couldn't post chart of RUT, which is WEAKEST index in my opinion. Can see its action at trend(s).

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:54:44 PM

BIX 270.49 -4.45% ... WEEKLY S2 274.14.

To even think "bounce" BIX would need 275.

Jim Brown : 11/20/2007 12:50:15 PM

I continue to be amazed by the amount of selling in the Russell compared to the other indexes. The small caps have been getting hammered for a couple weeks now even when the Dow/Nasdaq/NDX were trying to rebound. The Russell hit a new 3 month low this morning.

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 12:45:48 PM

There's bullish divergence building on the DOW's 60-min chart which has me thinking we're closer to a bounce than a breakdown. But a drop below yesterday's 12951 low would have a downside Fib projection at 12846 in play and maybe that's where it's headed before getting a bigger rally. If yesterday's low holds and the DOW instead rallies back above today's high of 13105 then we could see a much stronger rally get underway. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:45:35 PM

ProShares has a couple of "bear" long funds for SPX. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:44:46 PM

SPX 1,380 risk assessment (near-term) would equate to SPY $138.00.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:44:13 PM

RIO $33.43 -0.29% ... it slips red. Gives back from morning high of $34.92

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:42:37 PM

Now tie in last night's wrap and SPX IMPORTANT SUPPORT!

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:41:36 PM

DUG $42.53 -4.42% ... now thinking if things go to heck in the handbasket, and taste for equity continues to sour, DUG could indeed rise REGARDLESS of what the commodity does.

Will test.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:39:43 PM

NYSE A/D 1,581:1,632 ... now start to think "short" (see 11:20:56 AM)

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:38:53 PM

TRIN 1.14

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:28:48 PM

MFE $37.01 +3.66% ...

SPG $89.57 -1.81%

"Good roll" yesterday is my thought, based on today's observation.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:24:37 PM

I was under the impression that the BOE was loaning money to its banks for liquidity crunch purposes.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:23:55 PM


DJ- Private equity group J.C. Flowers submits bid for Northern Rock, a person familiar with the situation says. Proposal includes a $30.75 billion debt finance that will be used to repay part of the Bank of England's loan to the bank.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:20:13 PM

BIX.X 271.70 -4.02% ... getting whacked again today.

Has to be FRE releated.

If FRE can't, or won't buy the bank-originated mortgages, will the regionals be willing to write the loan, and carry the RISK themselves?

We KNOW from Wells Fargo (WFC) news items that they tend to originate a mortgage, but then tend to sell them in baskets to other institutions.

Yep ... better refinance that ARM to a fixed.

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 12:15:08 PM

The NDX 60-min chart shows a potentially very bearish setup if it drops back below 2010 from here. The pink wave count says we'd be in a 3rd of a 3rd wave down and if that happens you can bet the bulls will be this holiday's stuffing. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:14:51 PM

Can't say I disagree with Mr. Hastings thoughts.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:14:18 PM

DJ- FOREX FOCUS Risk Aversion May Not Save Dollar ... Thinking that rising risk aversion will slow the dollar's decline? Perhaps you should think again. The standard argument that lower global risk appetite makes riskier assets less attractive and boosts the dollar may no longer hold true, writes Nicholas Hastings.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:11:33 PM

CEO $169.89 +9.42% ...

PTR $189.99 +5.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:10:21 PM

Currently down $80.94 on DUG ... is there a trade somewhere else that "makes sense?"

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:08:25 PM

USO Alert! $76.40 +2.56% ...

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 12:08:07 PM

76 points today.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 12:07:46 PM

2 profitable trades is enough for me so done trading for the day.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 12:07:07 PM

Love trades like that.

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 12:07:02 PM

This drop has now negated the short term bullish wave pattern that was looking for another high before pulling back and leaves the bounce looking like just a correction to the decline. The bulls just can't pull it together here.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 12:06:39 PM

Gee I thought this trade would take a while but there we go - to target.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:06:36 PM


DJ- Shares slide 30% as mortgage investor's loss widens to $2.03 billion, or $3.29 a share, hit by soaring credit losses. Freddie is considering a 50% cut in its 4Q dividend and is looking for ways to raise extra capital. Firm estimates its regulatory core capital is almost below the regulatory minimum of 30%, and that fair value of net assets fell about $8.1 billion during the quarter.

FRE $26.61 -29.04% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:03:26 PM

Yet to see any "news" regarding oil's rise.

Dollar is weak again today.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 12:02:11 PM

AD line has being a wimp this morning with the AD line Ratio making new daily lows. This is what we want to see for our YM short .

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 12:00:49 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $76.08 +2.13% ... set to challenge recent highs ($76.31)

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 11:59:22 AM

I am going to raise the target to 13046 and lower the stop to 13112.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:58:00 AM

CFC's WEEKLY S2 $10.32.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 11:57:36 AM

Now short YM at 13079.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:57:34 AM

Countrywide (CFC) $10.02 -5.20% ... CFC-XC are $4.90 x $5.10 now. Still just 748 contracts traded (all exchanges).

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:55:02 AM

You could scramble your brain watching the a/d and nh/nl intra-day couldn't you? Once and hour is about MAX needed.

TRIN pretty darned good tool.

A/D only gives you that. Advance and decline.

TRIN gives you some volume and gives you an idea how much "gas" is behing the a/d.

TRIN's DAILY Pivot for today is 1.53. That is a "risk level" too.

1.00 is like having your car in neutral.

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 11:54:05 AM

The DOW has a different pattern than SPX because it made a new low late yesterday. The RUT is in a much weaker rally and the bounce looks corrective. The NDX looks more like SPX in having bullish potential or a 5-wave move up from yesterday. Unfortunately the differences between the indices leaves the next move in question.

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 11:51:14 AM

Getting a little deeper pullback but unless SPX drops below 1443 (yesterday afternoon's high) it should be able to give us another push higher to give us a 5-wave move up from yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:49:58 AM

NYSE NH/NL 27:309 8.035%

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 11:49:58 AM

I will be taking YM short at 13079 with a stop at 13116 and target at 13042.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:48:51 AM

NYSE A/D 2,037:1,145

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:48:34 AM

TRIN 1.08

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:48:23 AM

YM 13,085 ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:47:57 AM

My general observation via YM thus far is that bulls are still rather cautious at this point.

If they were more aggressive, YM "should have" gone to at least 13,148.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:47:45 AM

My general observation via YM thus far is that bears are in no hurry to cover anything at this point.

If they were, YM "should have" gone to at least 13,148.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:37:42 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

CLOSED out the CFC-XC at $4.80 as CFC did trade target of $10.00 at the open.

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 11:31:29 AM

Other than the relative weakness in the RUT, the market looks strong here. The current pullback fits as just another correction so look for higher levels still. The DOW would set up a potential short play if it can rally up to its downtrend line from Oct 31st, currently near 13135.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:27:03 AM

NYSE NH/NL 29:293 8.15%

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:26:13 AM

NYSE A/D 2,073:1,070

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:25:58 AM

YM 13,096 ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:25:48 AM

TRIN 1.02

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:25:29 AM

YM day trader's 5-minute interval chart. Now have added a "dynamic" (simply defines a current intra-day range) in PINK Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:22:01 AM

YM 13,113 ... post profile low has been 13,102

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:20:56 AM

I don't really want to be looking short with those though.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:19:55 AM

NYSE NH/NL 24:288 ... DAILY Ratio 7.7%

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:19:06 AM

NYSE A/D 2,067:1,073

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:18:49 AM

TRIN 0.96

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:18:08 AM

Downside RISK may now be to 50% dynamic (13,070) and MONTHLY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:17:23 AM

YM Long Stopped alert! 13,103

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 11:02:09 AM

YM Long alert! here at 13,110. Stop goes 13,103. Target 13,145.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:59:41 AM

As a trader looks at a chart with defined levels on them, they'll pick up these type of observations, make adjustments along the way and "fine tune" things. Get zeroed in. Then it is a "should do this," and "should NOT do this"

You want OUT of the trade when you get the "should NOT" do this observation.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:57:41 AM

Hey ... this morning, the YM's first move to DAILY R1 (13,108), was exceeded by 3 ticks. A bear that was shorting against DAILY R1 could have placed a stop 4, or 5-ticks above that level. Target would have been MONTHLY S2, or DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:55:25 AM

Good trade Jane! ... MONTHLY S2 held (per your 10:28:54) doubts.

EXCELLENT stop placement ... with 4-ticks below a level.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:52:56 AM

One "level" at a time.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:52:31 AM

This is probably all "human" here at 13,122, but a good "read" on where they're at. The morning pop to 13,111 that got turned back lower to MONTHLY S2, that was institutional computers. Now a trader checks a pulse on any pullback to DAILY R1 (red dashed) on my chart.

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 10:50:01 AM

New highs but no bearish divergences to talk about. This continues to look bullish. Even the RUT is trying to make a new high (but that one is showing some bearish divergences so a little caution is advised).

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:47:31 AM

NYSE NH/NL running 19:266 ... DAILY Ratio 6.7%

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 10:47:27 AM

Target hit - Wow!

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:46:45 AM

NYSE A/D 2,076:1,004

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:46:32 AM

TRIN 0.87

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:46:22 AM

YM 13,115 ...

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 10:45:46 AM

Target remains at 13125 and I will now move my stop to breakeven.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:45:41 AM

Jane! Hmmm ... never got a QCharts alert, or got a fill in personal account there. Did get a fill at 10:34:24 though!

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 10:44:26 AM

I hesitate to move my stop from 13064 until we make new daily highs.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 10:42:54 AM

By gum I think we avoided the bullet again today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:40:12 AM

Bears are going to take some heat in the energy patch today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:38:31 AM

YM 13,092 ... can go long, but I saw Jane already was.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:38:02 AM

TRIN 1.00

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:37:30 AM

For those "new" to ratios, it is calculated by 19 + 252 = 271. Then 19 / 271 = 7.01%

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 10:36:38 AM

Jeff I see a YM high at 13091 at 10:21 so I think you are long now.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 10:35:30 AM

BAck above breakeven now so the stop at 13064 was well placed.

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 10:35:23 AM

The RUT is weaker this morning and hasn't even challenged its downtrend line from last week yet.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:35:15 AM

NYSE NH/NL running 19:252

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:34:39 AM

NYSE A/D 1,942:1,112

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:34:25 AM

TRIN 1.05

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:33:39 AM

YM Long cancel setup alert! ... please cance my trade setup from 10:18:02.

YM 13,074 here ...

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 10:32:19 AM

At 2 p.m., the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its latest meeting, where it cut its key rate by 25 basis points, along with its economic projections for 2009.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 10:31:08 AM

My goodness did we get saved by a few ticks again?

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 10:30:35 AM

SPX has pulled back to test its broken downtrend line from last Wednesday the 14th. If it pushes back to a new high and shows bearish divergence then it should be a setup for at least a scalp short play.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:29:40 AM

YM day trader's 5-minute interval chart Link

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 10:28:54 AM

Still alive with our stop at 13064 but I am not too hopeful.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 10:22:15 AM

I'm not surprised we didn't get much follow through when YM made a new intraday high. The AD line is not strong enough to muscle the markets to powerful breakouts. The trick now is to not get stopped and then have the market turn around on us.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:18:02 AM

YM Long setup alert! ... with YM 13,079 ... Look to GO LONG a YM trade at 13,091. Stop will go just under MONTHLY S2 (13,070). Target 13,190.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 10:14:59 AM

Stop to 13064.

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 10:13:54 AM

This morning's rally would now look best with a small consolidation followed by another new high to give us a 5-wave move up. That should then be followed by a larger pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:09:22 AM

If looking LONG the YM, a trader wants to see a pullback to a DAILY Pivot, and he/she wants to see it stick like a gymnast sticks their landing for a "10," then have the YM turn higher and take out a DAILY R1 like it wasn't there.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 10:08:13 AM

Raise stop to 13057.

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:06:55 AM

YM's DAILY R1 13,108

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 10:00:08 AM

China Tel. (CHA) $75.71 +12.07% ... retraces 38.2% of its recent 10/17 close to 11/12 close.

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 9:58:47 AM

Do I hear some gobblers out there gobbling up stocks to try to run this higher for the Turkey holiday?

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 9:56:42 AM

Take note overnight highs are 13103.

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 9:56:06 AM

And as soon as I posted that SPX jumped above 1445 and immediately negated that bearish wave count idea. It's hitting its downtrend line so it could pull back again but this changes the wave pattern to at least something more short term bullish.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 9:54:45 AM

I will be taking YM long at 13083 with a stop at 13041 and a target at 13125.

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 9:54:29 AM

While trying to figure out the wave count possibilities for the entire decline from October, looking at just the leg down from last Friday shows how a 5-wave move would complete if this morning's bounce fails at or below 1445 and then drops to a new low (possibly only a minor new low just below 1428). So watch for a short play to set up if SPX nears 1444-1445 and stalls. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/20/2007 9:54:01 AM

Swing trade put exit alert! for the one (1) Countrywide Financial CFC Dec $15 Put (CFC-XC) at the bid of $4.80.

CFC $10.30 -2.55%

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 9:53:43 AM

Let me know if you need me to post the TRIN periodically today.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 9:53:13 AM

Mike - yes I am getting the TRIN. It is now 1.07 and making new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 9:51:50 AM

Internals are all in sync and are bullish. An AD line though at +714 doesn't instill a great deal of bullishness in me however.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 9:39:25 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks on Tuesday headed to a modestly higher start as optimism fueled by Hewlett-Packard Co.'s solid results and hopes of another interest rate cut ahead was tempered by Freddie Mac's quarterly loss and a drop in U.S. building permits.

After U.S. stocks were hit with steep losses Monday, speculation increased that the Federal Reserve might step in with an emergency rate cut, talk that helped lift stocks overseas.

"Stocks [are] recovering on a perception the FOMC report will be hawkish. Very tough to buy these levels, but credit still running the show," said Tom DiGaloma, head of U.S. Treasury trading at Jefferies & Co. Inc.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 9:37:39 AM

VIX is making new daily lows supporting the S&P futures' new intraday highs.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 9:35:59 AM

Ad line opens at +409 - neutral.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 9:29:16 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose sharply on Tuesday, as the euro's rally to a record high against the dollar boosted demand for the precious metal.

Gold for December delivery surged $16.50, or 2%, at $794.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Other metals prices traded mostly higher.

On Monday, the benchmark gold contract dropped $9 an ounce.

"The metal is likely to remain in a mixed and potentially volatile mood in the coming sessions as further bouts of long liquidation are absorbed by seasonally strong physical demand from India, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, and further rounds of oil/dollar related safe-haven demand," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, in a research note.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 9:28:27 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures traded above $95 a barrel early Tuesday, propelled by the dollar's tumble to a new record low against the euro.

Crude for January delivery reached $95.44 a barrel, up 80 cents, in electronic trading. Pervasive weakness in the dollar "continues to underpin demand for commodities," said analysts at Action Economics.

As a dollar-denominated commodity, crude, together with gold, benefits from dollar weakness. Gold futures also surged Tuesday.

Keene Little : 11/20/2007 9:24:04 AM

Equity futures are closer to their overnight lows than their highs and gave up the bulk of their sizeable overnight gains. I think there's a decent chance we'll see yesterday afternoon's highs tested but if the test fails and price drops below the afternoon lows then the price pattern will turn more bearish.

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 9:15:05 AM

US$ is really struggling but it can't continue this decline forever, at some point the buyers will come back to the table and we will get a bounce but I see no evidence of it yet. The MACD has been following this market downward but may be in the process of building a bullish divergence. Link

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 9:05:40 AM

This is a bearish chart and like I said yesterday, it may need to reach the projected target of the H&S pattern at 1404 before it finds support. Link

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 9:00:55 AM

Crude up, Gold up and US$ down. These are all in sync.

The $/YEN market is following the same path as the American Index futures so no divergences here we can exploit. Link

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 8:56:10 AM

Overnight the American indexes made an ominous double top and they have been in a downward slide ever since. The S&P futures have almost retested their overnight lows. One would have a tendency to blame the report out at 8:30 but the Building Permits report is, although important, not that much of a market mover and in any case the double top second high was made at 7:15, well before the report was released. Link

Jane Fox : 11/20/2007 8:48:53 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Builders broke ground on new apartments at a faster pace in October, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. However, building permits fell for the fifth month in a row to the slowest pace in 14 years, pointing to less home building ahead.

New construction of U.S. houses and apartments rose 3.0% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.23 million in October, following three months of decline, the department said.

Estimated housing starts were higher than the 1.17 million pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Starts in September were revised up slightly to 1.19 million.

Building permits, a leading indicator of housing construction, fell 6.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.18 million in October from 1.26 million in September. It's the lowest level for permits since July 1993.

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