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Keene Little : 11/26/2007 11:22:19 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

I mentioned at the end of the day Monday that the market closed at support and suggested taking profits on the short play and think about trying the long side. With the after-hours rally in equity futures it's certainly looking bullish so far for a start to Tuesday trading.

The bulls need to step in right away on Tuesday morning in order to keep the market from breaking down. SPX closed slightly below the uptrend line from March 2003 but no real harm was done, yet. If it breaks down further and then finds that trend line as resistance then it could get brutal from there for the bulls (pink wave count): Link

But there's still a chance for the bulls to pull a rabbit out of the hat and rally the market into the end of the week, making Monday another bear trap (lots of traps have been set for both sides recently). A rally above Monday's 1446 high could set us up for a rally to a Fib projection at 1490 (another strong resistance level now). The bullish divergences should have the bears being cautious here (especially with futures up so strong this evening).

The DOW daily chart shows what could be a small descending wedge since the Nov 14th high, with bullish divergences readily seen on the 60-min chart (like SPX). If this is a bullish pattern (vs. dropping like a stone through the bottom of it on Tuesday) then a rally above Monday's 13037 high could be the signal for a rally up to its broken uptrend line from July 2006, perhaps up to around 13400: Link

A break below the August 12518 low would negate even a chance for the bullish wave count (green) but until then the bulls will need to get the DOW back above about 13450 to get it onto a more bullish path. Until that happens I'll be looking for a bounce this week to set up the next great shorting opportunity.

The NDX chart is clearly threatenng a breakdown here but only if the selling continues on Tuesday. The updated 60-min chart shows price essentially stopped at support near 1990 but if it doesn't bounce right away, meaning no futzing around tomorrow morning, and especially if it breaks below 1982, then it will likely be lights out for the bulls. The bearish wave count (dark red) remains very bearish here as it calls for some serious selling in multiple degrees of 3rd waves to the downside. You'll want to be aboard for that ride. Notice the break of the uptrend line on RSI: Link

So as of this evening I would say it's especially crucial for NDX to rally right away on Tuesday in order to reverse these bearish signals. As long as futures don't get reversed before the morning I'd say we've got a good start at the reversal.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:07:41 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Sold covered the SPG-XP. Would cancel Tgt of $79 for SPG-MQ long near-term. ($80 - $1.80) = $78.20.

OI Technical Staff : 11/26/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 5:56:14 PM

World Bullish % Bell Curve as of Friday's close at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 5:22:31 PM

Global Equity Benchmarks, Dollar Index, USO and GLD Monday-Monday closes Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 5:05:04 PM

Closing Internals since 10/22/07 to today's close at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 4:59:07 PM

January Crude (cl08f) settled down $0.48, or -0.49% at $97.70.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 4:53:47 PM

SPX will need to see the bulls step in right away on Tuesday morning. Today's close was a slight break below the uptrend line from March 2003 but no real harm done, yet. If it breaks down further and then finds that trend line as resistance then it could get brutal from there for the bulls (pink wave count): Link

But there's still a chance for the bulls to pull a rabbit out of the hat and rally the market into the end of the week, making today just another bear trap (lots of traps have been set for both sides recently). A rally above today's 1446 high could set us up for a rally to a Fib projection at 1490 (another strong resistance level now). The bullish divergences should have the bears being cautious here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 4:34:04 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 4:27:53 PM

The NDX chart is clearly threatenng a breakdown here. The updated 60-min chart shows price essentially stopped at support near 1990 but if it doesn't bounce right away, meaning no futzing around tomorrow morning, and especially if it breaks below 1982 then it will likely be lights out for the bulls. The bearish wave count (dark red) remains very bearish here as it calls for some serious selling in multiple degrees of 3rd waves to the downside. You'll want to be aboard for that ride. Notice the break of the uptrend line on RSI (ruh-roh): Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 4:23:50 PM

EIA: US Retail Gasoline $-0.20 In Week To $3.097/Gallon

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 4:17:37 PM

Economic Reports out tomorrow include:

10:00a.m. Nov Conference Board Consumer Confidence. Expected: 91. Previous: 95.6.

10:00a.m. Nov Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Previous: -5.

10:30a.m. Nov Dallas Fed Mfg Production Index. Previous: 10.6.

12:00p.m. Chicago Fed Midwest Mfg Index. Previous: -0.1%.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 4:04:19 PM

No short covering into the close. The bears (which are rapidly climbing in number) are getting brazen here. Remember that hogs get slaughtered. This afternoon's drop looks like a nice 5-wave move and that suggests at least a bounce to correct the move.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 4:00:40 PM

NASDAQ-100 Tracker (QQQQ) Alert! $48.91 -1.84% ... 5th major to trade WEEKLY S1.

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 4:00:07 PM

The USDJPY has dropped all the way to 107.28. It obviously did not follow through on the potential reversal that had been produced on the daily chart and instead has dropped below Friday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 3:59:42 PM

Swing trade call option alert! ... for one (1) of the Altria MO Jan $70 Calls (MO-AN) at the offer of $3.05.

No stop for now, target $80 in the underlying.

MO $71.50 -2.01% ...

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 3:58:14 PM

The DOW Theory sell signal is a result of both the DOW and Transports confirming a break below the August closing lows. It does not mean we can't get a big bounce off support here (say back up to SPX 1450) but what it does say is that we have a confirmation of an entry into a bear market. That's a big deal.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 3:55:37 PM

SPX just hit its downside target so half is off the table and very tight stop on the rest. Bears are doing a number here. The DOW has confirmed the DOW Theory sell signal from Wednesday.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 3:55:27 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) alert! $127.75 -1.29% ... 4th major index to trade WEEKLY S1.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 3:54:22 PM

I'll either get stopped out on a bounce or take profits at the downside targets of SPX 1411/NDX 1990, whichever comes first. I'd prefer to go home flat.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 3:53:07 PM

Keep pulling your stop down to just above each bounce high. Follow it down and let the market tell you when it's down selling.

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 3:52:46 PM

This formation on the bottom of the SPX's decline looks like a broadening formation. When these occur at the top of a climb, they're typically bearish, but I haven't seen much evidence about whether such formations are considered bullish when formed at the bottom of a decline. What they point out is the emotional and volatile nature of the trading, and that supposed breakouts tend to quickly reverse. If the formation is broadening, where is support and where is resistance? When the SPX broke above Friday's high, was that bullish? Nope. When it broke below Friday's low a few minutes ago, was that bearish? Who knows.

Some will point out that today's candle is a bearish engulfing candle and those are typically bearish, but you could have pointed to Friday's bullish engulfing (almost) candle and have said it was bullish, and it obviously meant little. The only conclusion that's a sound one is that it's been risky to hold overnight, risky to trade breakouts. Make your end-of-day decisions accordingly.

A daily Keltner chart shows that until and unless the SPX produces daily closes above the 9-ema, now at about 1441.40, it's maintaining a downside target near 1350, but there's potential support near 1400-1406.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 3:42:55 PM

The 2nd leg down today for SPX would achieve 162% of the 1st leg down at 1411.87, right there at trend line support. Could be tempted to nibble on a long play there. I'll at least take profits on my short play and watch carefully.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 3:35:17 PM

VIX.X 27.66 +8.00%

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 3:34:32 PM

Swing trade sell COVERED put alert! ... Let's sell some premium/volatility with one (1) of the Simon Property Group SPG Dec $80 Puts (SPG-XP) at the bid of $1.80.

SPG $86.30 ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 3:31:31 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) Alert! 267.91% -4.58% ... gets the trade at WEEKLY S1 (268.05)

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 3:31:28 PM

You can bet that traders will be front running support at SPX 1411--its uptrend line from March 2003 and the line that supported the August selloff. If it worked once many traders are going to try it again. If short start pulling your stop down a little tighter now. Take the bulk of this move and don't worry if you get stopped out and miss another decline after that. Better to move into protection mode at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 3:27:12 PM

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX.X) Alert! 27.75 +8.35% ... trades WEEKLY R1 (27.69)

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 3:25:20 PM

Both the $RUT and the $NDX broken their previous day lows. Opps there goes the SPX now so the only hold out is the DOW. Link

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 3:24:30 PM

NDX is breaking that support level so the 1990 target looks good for now.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 3:22:15 PM

I showed a sideways triangle for NDX this morning ( Link ), the bottom of which is near 1990. For today's decline the 2nd leg down will be equal to 162% of the 1st leg down at the same 1990 so that makes a good downside objective for now. Link

But if there's a more bullish pattern ahead then it could find support here at the bottom of its parallel down-channel and two equal legs down at 2007. Pull your stop down a bit if short.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 3:22:02 PM

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) Alert! $142.02 -1.48% ... 3rd major to trade WEEKLY S1.

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 3:18:26 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema has now dropped to 1426.37.

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 3:17:26 PM

New potential target and possible next support at 1401.52 on 15-minute closes for the SPX, as long as 15-minute closes remain beneath the 9-ema, now at about 1428. However, potential historical support in the 1415-1419 zone should be noted. For the OEX, Keltners show a potential downside target of 655.58 as long as 15-minute closes are beneath the 9-ema, now at 666.50. Use the 9-ema as a sort of weather vane, because there's just something about the action today that I don't like.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 3:13:06 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) Alert! 738.96 -2.12% ... 2nd major to trade WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 3:11:02 PM

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) Alert! 664.21 -1.40% ... first major to trade WEEKLY S1.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 3:06:06 PM

After benefitting from a big rally (short covering it seems) on Friday, the banks (BIX) have given it all back and then some. The index is now breaing Wednesday afternoon's low and down -4% here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 2:53:00 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 2:52:45 PM

The bulls are defending DOW 12900.

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 2:51:41 PM

The USDJPY has also broken to a new low of the day. It's just above that 107.88 low, at 107.91 as I type. It, like the SPX, has been trending down since about noon, but neither has convincingly broken below their potential support on 15-minute closes. It will take an SPX close above the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1430.55, to change the short-term tenor established since noon. RSI on that 15-minute chart has been dragging along near 30 for quite a while now, but there's no sign of a sustainable bounce as yet.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 2:50:13 PM

But watch the SPX 1420-1420 area for potential support. After that is the uptrend line from 2003 currently near 1411 (and Wednesday's low near 1416 before that). The bears have some work ahead of them if they want to get SPX below 1410.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 2:46:35 PM

Breaking down again so short is the place to be.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 2:44:38 PM

Rio conseguir whacked!

Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO) $31.39 -3.56% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 2:41:15 PM

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) $143.07 -0.73% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 2:40:27 PM

Biiiiig bid develops in Treasuries intraday.

Longest-dated 30-year Yield ($TYX.X) plunges 11.9 bp to 4.319%.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 2:37:17 PM


DJ- Priceline.com signs multi-year distribution partnership with low-fare airline JetBlue Airways. Priceline.com will have full access to all of JetBlue's published fares, schedules and inventory. Travelocity, Orbitz also sign on.JBLU $7.00 -1.40% ...

PCLN $106.60 -1.01% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 2:34:45 PM


DJ- TD Ameritrade says it received another lawsuit alleging it disclosed, inadvertently or intentionally, e-mail addresses of account holders to spammers. Suit alleges spammers sent solicitations promoting certain stocks.

AMTD $18.37 -2.80% ...

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 2:34:10 PM

The pullback has now been followed by a bounce with higher highs so that raises the possibility that we've seen all there will be for the pullback and now we're set up for the next rally leg. A break above today's mid-day high is needed to give us a bullish buy signal but a break back down to a lower lower now could be followed by some swift selling (so consider selling into the breakdown).

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 2:33:40 PM


DJ- Consumer-products firm says 4Q sales will be flat, and full-year sales will increase 3% to 3.5%. It previously expected 4Q sales to grow 2%, and full-year sales to increase 4%. Company keeps 4Q EPS expectations at 44c to 46c.

NWL $26.59 -6.41% ...

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 2:22:34 PM

The Russell 2000 index has made a picture perfect 100% retracement of the rally from August lows. Link

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 2:21:18 PM

The DOW was a tad more bearish and broke through its 76.40% retracement. Link

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 2:19:26 PM

The SPX has made a picture perfect 76.40% retracement of the rally from August lows. Link

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 2:17:12 PM

VIX is not making new daily highs as the S&P futures makes new daily lows. This is the kind of divergence I use to tell me a bottom is in, however the VIX has been fickle of late and I will need to see it start working again before I will believe it.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 2:13:25 PM

In case this leg down now (what could be the 5th wave down from the high around 1:00 PM) finishes the pullback watch for bullish divergences to signal an end to the decline and take some profits off the table if you're short. I'm not ready to jump into a long play yet but the potential is there for this to turn around and start heading higher again and break above SPX 1450 (dark red on the 60-min chart): Link

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 1:59:33 PM

The SPX is reaching down toward its target, now at 1427.26, with that also serving as potential support on 15-minute closes. As it's doing so, the 15-minute RSI has now dipped below 30, to 26.84 as I type. Although RSI sometimes trends below 30 or above 70 on the 15-minute chart, sometimes as long as two or three hours, that's not the most common occurrence. So, what does this mean? It means that if you're in a short-term bearish position, perhaps entered during the lunchtime lull when the SPX was testing resistance, you need to evaluate carefully where you want your stop to be now or if you've reached the target you wanted. The SPX is at 1430.06 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 1:59:06 PM

Saudi Arabia Boosts Oil Output Ahead Of OPEC Meeting - CNBC

DJ- Saudi Arabia is boosting crude-oil output ahead of OPEC's Dec. 5 meeting, CNBC reported Monday.

The business news channel cited sources at the country's oil ministry.

Traders have said that increased output from members of the Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries could damp oil prices, which have been hovering just below the $100-a-barrel mark.

Last week, the Oil Movements consulting firm said that OPEC is expected to boost crude output by 720,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Dec. 8.

Recently, light, sweet crude for January delivery was trading 59 cents lower at $97.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 1:56:18 PM

iShares Brazil (EWZ) Alert! $75.55 -2.44% ... undercuts its 11/12/07 relative low.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 1:55:21 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bearish position in RIO.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 1:55:03 PM

Today's drop for SPX would have two equal legs down at 1422 which matches its broken downtrend line from Nov 14th. Look for potential support there and a profit target for at least a portion of your short trade. The same setup for the DOW is a little higher--two equal legs down is at 12897 but its broken downtrend line is closer to 12880.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 1:53:12 PM

VIX.X 26.53 +3.59% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 1:52:47 PM

Swing trade put round to 2/3 position alert! ... for an additional one (1) of the Companhia Vale do Rio Doce RIO Jan $35 Puts (RIO-MG) at the offer of $4.10.

RIO $32.98 +1.28% ...

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 1:51:34 PM

The sideways triangle that has formed on the VIX since its Nov 12th high looks like a continuation pattern. It's either ready for a continuation higher from here (immediately bearish for stocks) or will pull back first before rallying. In either case it's bearish for the stock market and it's just a question (IMO) whether we get a selloff in the stock market now or after a larger bounce. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 1:50:17 PM

SPX tentative target and support on 15-minute closes at 1427.38. The OEX is currently testing its version at about 668 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 1:42:09 PM

The SPX has again set a tentative downside target, but does that action mean any more than it did last time? So far, the USDJPY is still just chopping around within its tight range. The VIX hasn't broken out of its triangle on its daily chart, and I'm not sure, because of the narrowing of that triangle, whether it will mean all that much if it does at this point. While the SPX is setting a new short-term downside target, the TRAN is setting a new upside one, with it looking about as iffy as the SPX's downside target. It's just a mess right now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 1:25:04 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) Alert! $76.98% +0.28% ... testing very short-term downward trend from Wednesday's high ($77.53) to Friday's relative high ($77.09).

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 1:24:53 PM

Now that the drop is making lower lows I'd lower your stop on a short play to just above the high of the bounce. It should now head for new daily lows so give it some breathing room (at the risk of giving it all back). Get yourself into a free trade (breakeven stop) as soon as you comfortably can.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 1:02:27 PM

Bearish divergences are starting to appear on this bounce and NDX has now retraced 62% of this morning's drop (SPX 50% and DOW a more bullish near 78.6%). The bears need to tip this back over here if they hope to achieve another leg down to potentially match this morning's drop.

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 12:41:47 PM

And so, as I suspected when I wrote my 12:20:54 and an earlier post, the SPX closed a 15-minute period above the 15-minute 45-ema, erasing that tentative downside target. It moved across to the resistance I thought might be tested, but I'm still not sure that it signifies anything other than the typical lunchtime lull type of action. I'd keep my eyes on the USDJPY for clues, but it so far hasn't broken out of its consolidation zone. It would have to break above 108.72 and sustain values above it before I thought its zigzagging action meant too much.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 12:33:21 PM

I've got some Fibs lining up near DOW 12992 (YM 13016) for a target for this bounce. Watch for resistance there to short it for another leg down today. The stop would need to be at a new daily high so consider that as part of your risk management.

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 12:20:54 PM

The SPX maintains a tentative downside target (and potential support on 15-minute closes) at 1425.74. That target will be erased on a 15-minute close above 1435.14, something that might very well happen during the lunchtime lull. The analogous support level for the OEX is 666.81, with that potential target and support in place as long as the OEX isn't producing 15-minute closes above the 15-minute 45-ema, now at 671.08.

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 12:01:11 PM

USDJPY at 108.15, back above 108.10, but with 15-minute candles all having upper shadows (a tentative sign of weakness).

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 11:58:55 AM

The bounce off the this morning's low is looking corrective and suggests we haven't seen the lows yet. The question for shorter term traders is whether the bounce will get larger before tipping back over again.

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 11:58:37 AM

The SPX maintains its tentative downside target (now at 1425.52) as long as 15-minute closes remain beneath 1435.50. The decline has been choppy and not entirely convincing, however, and the lunchtime lull should begin soon. During that lunchtime lull, the basis lines for Keltner channels tend to flatten as prices do, too, and the SPX sometimes travels across Keltner lines that were previously support or resistance, without the movement meaning that much. So, I wouldn't be surprised to see a movement up toward 1438, but I don't know that it will mean that much, if it does happen. I'm just not finding a lot to hang my hat on today, as the saying goes.

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 11:44:16 AM

The VIX is confirming the S&P futures new lows and is once again climbing telling me the rally should be sold.

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 11:38:35 AM

The VIX is still inside that triangle on its daily chart, although it's tested the bottom trendline and almost tested the top. The trendlines are narrowing so quickly toward the apex now that unless there's a strong move, I think the triangle will be rendered rather useless as a predictive tool.

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 11:48:01 AM

AD line is now -621 and much more bearish than earlier. AD volume tajectory is down and so is AD volume ratio.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 11:26:18 AM

CVRD Does Not Envisage European Listing ... Reuters Story Link

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) $32.90 +1.04% ...

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 11:25:39 AM

The USDJPY falls beneath that 108.10 support, although let's watch to make sure where it is at the close of this 15-minute period, to see if the Keltner support here holds on a 15-minute close.

The SPX maintains a potential target at 1424.96, with potential support there on 15-minute closes, but the SPX's decline toward that potential target is choppy and not completely trustworthy.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 11:20:53 AM

DOW's broken downtrend line from Nov 14th is just above 12900 so watch for potential support there. This line (for SPX as well) was broken on Friday so if price breaks back below it then it will be a signal that the rally wasn't "real". It was on the lowest volume of the year so the bulls want to see the broken downtrend lines turned into support.

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 11:15:55 AM

All markets are now below their overnight lows. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 11:15:21 AM

The USDJPY has support in the 108.10 range. It's at 108.26 as I type, having just dipped to 108.22, retesting the 8:30 low of 108.21. It's still chopping around within the tight range it's had for several days.

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 11:13:57 AM

Hit target at 12958. Out of the short from 12999.

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 11:13:16 AM

It is now time to be thinking about taking your profits and/or lowering your risk.

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 11:11:23 AM

Lower stop on the YM short from 12999 to 13012.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 11:06:52 AM

While the NDX set up a good short play at the top of its potential sideways triangle pattern, SPX failed to reach its 1449-1450 target area and has now pulled back more than "normal" if it was to make another stab at that level to set up a short play. Now watch to see if it finds support at its broken downtrend line from Nov 14th, currently near 1428. Link

The bullish EW count (for a potential run up to around 1500) calls for a continuation of the rally following this pullback so watch that 1428 level. It takes a break below Wednesday's low to suggest something much more bearish is in progress.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 11:01:49 AM

DJ Survey: US Nov. Consumer Confidence Seen At 91.0

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 11:01:07 AM

Lower stop to 13021 not much but every little bit helps.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:59:04 AM

DJ- MARK TO MARKET ... Two Leading Economic Indicators Strike Out - Jim Murphy apologizes to a reader for not being the leading economic indicator the reader hoped he and Ruthie would be now that after 35 years of renting, the Murphy's are looking to buy a house.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:57:44 AM


DJ- BP broke a Texas government code by using a former state official to secure air pollution permits for refinery there, according to lawyers representing plaintiffs suing the company in the wake of a deadly blast in 2005 at Texas refinery.

BP $71.50 +0.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:56:36 AM


DJ- On his first state visit to China, French President Nicolas Sarkozy is urging Beijing to let the yuan appreciate against the euro, as he and Chinese President Hu Jintao presid over signings worth around euro 20 billion for French companies.

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 10:56:31 AM

Lower stop to 13028.

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 10:56:12 AM

After breaking above 15-minute Keltner resistance for a single 15-minute close, the SPX hit tougher resistance, shown on a daily chart. The SPX's 10-sma appeared to be tough resistance this morning, with that at 1446.62 and with the high of the day at 1446.09. On an intraday basis, the SPX has now set a tentative downside target of 1424.56, as long as it maintains 15-minute closes beneath the 15-minute 45-ema now at about 1436.50. Be a little leery of targets set this morning, though. It feels a little as if the waters are being tested here and then there, trying to establish just the right temperature.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:55:55 AM


DJ- China Premier Wen Jiabao tells French President Nicolas Sarkozy the yuan's fall against the euro was due to euro's rise in international markets, and adds China will boost flexibility of yuan and push forward its foreign exchange reforms.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:55:18 AM


DJ- Dubai International Capital, an investment firm owned by emirate's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, has acquired a stake in Sony in latest sign of growing appetite for overseas investments by Middle Eastern investors.

SNE $50.81 +3.52% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:54:00 AM

I'm now seeing fractional losses for European bourses.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:53:24 AM


DJ- European shares rose for third straight session as strong start to U.S. holiday shopping season reassures investors and M&A activity is high. Also, Chinese contract wins from French companies provides support.

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 10:52:02 AM

The VIX doesn't yet look as if it's broken through the top of its triangle since 11/15 on its daily chart. It pierced 26.00, the bottom of the triangle, but then sprang right back up, so there's no real conclusion to be gained from its actions yet, at least on an intermediate-term basis. I'm not arguing against what Jane might be noting on an intraday basis.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:51:17 AM


DJ- Nymex crude falls as traders interpret mixed signals from the weakening dollar, forecasts for colder U.S. weather and the chance that OPEC will decide to boost oil output at a meeting next week. Earlier, crude traded at a high of $99.11 a barrel.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:50:25 AM


DJ- Sears is prepared to offer $6.75 a share for Restoration Hardware, which has already agreed to be taken private at $6.70 a share. Special committee of Restoration Hardware says it is unwilling to enter into a confidentiality agreement with Sears.

SHLD $109.57 -2.67% ...

RSTO $6.99 -0.99% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:49:12 AM


DJ- Rio Tinto CEO Tom Albanese acknowledges there is logic in combining the two companies, but says any takeover by rival BHP Billiton has to be at much higher value than unsolicited stock-swap proposed earlier this month, valued at $131.121 billion.

RTP $434.18 -0.42% ...

BHP $72.59 -0.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:47:38 AM


DJ- Chicago Fed National Activity Index drops to -0.73 in October, the lowest mark for index since January, from -0.30 in September. Production-related indicators are -0.39 in October, while employment-related indicators are -0.20.

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 10:44:43 AM

STop on the YM Short is 13041 and target is 12958.

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 10:43:04 AM

I see a YM short at 12999.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:39:58 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 10:29:27 AM

Today's trading seems slower than Friday's.

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 10:27:55 AM

Fortunately that long YM was not triggered for it has reached its stop now. That long YM is off the table now.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 10:27:21 AM

As I had shown on the NDX chart, 1982 is the key downside level for the bears. Any break below that level (Nov 12th low) would say the continuation pattern is finished and the next leg down has begun. Until that happens we could see the consolidation pattern last another 3-5 days.

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 10:26:16 AM

Don't look now, but the TRAN has already broken above the same Keltner level of resistance that both the SPX and OEX currently test. It's coming down now to retest it, at about 4470-4477 on 15-minute closes and with the TRAN currently at 4474.63. If the former resistance continues to hold as support, and the TRAN bounces to a new high, then it could be leading the SPX, OEX and Dow where bulls want them to go, but it's always a bit troublesome to bullish theories when volatility increases after a breakout, as it's done with the TRAN since it broke above this resistance. Anyway, keep the TRAN on your radar screen.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 10:25:03 AM

NDX stopped at the top of its triangle pattern so if you shorted the techs I'd now use this morning's high as your stop. The bottom of the triangle pattern is near 1990 and that would be my profit objective (it won't be a straight line down to there though but instead could be very choppy).

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 10:22:11 AM

SPX bulls just can't break prices through that Keltner resistance so far, but neither are bulls giving up yet, either. That's at 1443.35 on 15-minute closes, currently, with the SPX at 1440.49 as I type. Support is layered just about as thickly as resistance, though, so it's going to take either some time or a strong push to get through either support or resistance.

A similar situation exists on the OEX, with resistance at 674.96 on 15-minute closes and support layered down to 671.73 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:24:13 AM

2007 Dow Dogs (update) and rest of Dow Industrial components Link

12/29/06 Benchmark, sorted by Highest Yield Link

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 10:13:19 AM

STop will be at 13016 to begin with but I will raise it as a soon as I can.

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 10:12:39 AM

I will be taking YM long at 13062.

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 10:08:06 AM

Since Friday morning, the USDJPY has moved in a fairly tight range, with one spike up to 108.67 as the European markets were opening this morning. It's at 108.41 as I type, and just isn't showing us much at all. Friday's candle produced a candle that could be a potential reversal signal, but the USDJPY has to gain today in order for that reversal signal to be realized. From various signs--that potential reversal signal, a fitted Fib bracket that fits all the consolidation and gap zones nicely, the number of sessions that have seen declines--it should be about time for a bounce. "Should be" and "will be" are vastly different, but be forewarned if you're in bearish equity positions that a strong USDJPY bounce could be bad for those bearish positions. I heard some talk on CNBC Europe last night about the yen carry trade again coming into play with the yen declining against the dollar since Friday's session in Japan.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:06:11 AM


DJ- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowers its counterparty credit ratings on MGIC Investment and Triad Guaranty to "A-" from "A," citing potential for outsized losses. Ratings affirmed on three rivals, but S&P says outlook is negative.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:05:41 AM


DJ- Credit Suisse drops 3% and Societe Generale falls 4.1% on opening after Goldman Sachs slashes its view on the two banks, two days after imposing a 'Sell' rating on Citigroup.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:04:59 AM


DJ- Bank of America, Citigroup and J.P. Morgan Chase, assembling a plan aimed at thawing credit markets, are expected next week to start soliciting their industry brethren to pitch in with the effort, according to people familiar with the situation.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:04:01 AM


DJ- While Citigroup has been struggling with home-loan problems, the banking titan has had an oversized impact on the 30-member Dow Jones Industrial Average, now standing as the Dow's worst performer of the year, with a 45% drop.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:03:16 AM


DJ- As E*Trade Financial Corp. moves closer to being sold, prospective suitors for the company are haggling over the value of its deteriorating mortgage portfolio, people familiar with the discussions say.

ETFC $4.96 -6.94% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 10:02:15 AM


DJ- HSBC will bail out two structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, and move their $45 billion in assets onto balance sheet, as liquidity crisis to fund these kinds of vehicles deepens and market value continues to plummet.

HBC $83.89 -1.01% ...

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 10:00:27 AM

I mentioned late last week that, since about 11/15, the VIX has been forming a triangle at the top of its move off its October low. The triangle is a neutral one that's narrowing toward its apex. Unless we're going to get values that just issue outward in a straight line, that triangle should break soon. It looks as if the top trendline current crosses at about 27.00 and the bottom, 26.00. That doesn't give the VIX much room to move without breaking the triangle parameters, does it? So, I'm wondering if we should take any triangle "breakout" with a grain of salt. Notice what's happening, but perhaps don't put as much credence in a seeming breakout as you might have done if it had occurred when the triangle trendlines were a little further apart. The VIX is at 26.34 as I type.

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 9:56:31 AM

Another potential price pattern that will play out on NDX is a sideways triangle as shown on this 60-min chart (in pink): Link . The top of the triangle, the downtrend line from Nov 14th, is near 2047 so watch for resistance there. This pattern could see another down-up sequence into the end of the month before the selling resumes in earnest in December. Watch the trend lines on RSI.

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 9:53:49 AM

All markets are above their previous day highs except the Russell 2000. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 9:53:21 AM

A repo in the amount of $6.250 billion matured today. The Fed has announced a repo in the amount of $10.250 billion, so that's a net add of $4.000 billion for the day. there's now a hefty $50.250 billion sloshing through the system. The average sloshing through the system (repos that haven't yet matured) has been going up this week.

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 9:51:27 AM

No breakout yet above Keltner resistance on the first 15-minute SPX close, but that resistance is being tested now, too.

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 9:51:25 AM

AD line and volume are telling me there are not very many players today.

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 9:50:48 AM

Very slow market today.

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 9:42:25 AM

AD line is a neutral +351. VIX opens above its previous day highs but is making new daily lows

Linda Piazza : 11/26/2007 9:39:20 AM

SPX Keltner resistance is at 1442.61 on 15-minute closes. For the OEX, it's 674.85.

Jeff Bailey : 11/26/2007 9:30:54 AM

NY Fed Announces Term RPs For Year End

DJ- The New York Fed said Monday that it is implementing a long-term repurchase agreement as part of an effort to ensure the market has ample liquidity through year end.

The bank said that it is planning to execute an operation to be arranged and settled on Wednesday, maturing on Jan. 10, 2008. The New York Fed said the operation will total $8 billion.

The Fed said future interventions "spanning the year-end will be influenced by market and reserve developments." It added that it "plans to provide sufficient reserves to resist upward pressures on the federal funds rate above the (Federal Open Market Committee's) target rate around year-end."

The Fed regularly intervenes in the fed funds market, and by borrowing a mix of Treasury, agency and mortgage debt, it works to achieve the monetary policy objective set by the FOMC.

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 9:24:33 AM

US$ continues to make new lows but the MACD is telling me it is forming a bottom here, which is another reason to believe Gold will fall. Link

Keene Little : 11/26/2007 9:23:56 AM

A steady climb in equity futures last night was given up, and then some, by early this morning. It looks like we'll have a slightly positive start to the morning and a retest of the overnight lows could give us a decent morning rally. I'll be watching SPX in that case to see it how it does around the 1449-1450 area.

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 9:22:49 AM

Here is another market I think is ready for fall, Gold. A revisit to the 38.20% fib level is possible so I would not be long Gold here. I would not be short Gold but on the sidelines for now. Link

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 9:13:46 AM

Crude is up against some pretty tough resistance here, $100/bl, triple top. If you are long crude I would be taking profits here. Link

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 9:08:07 AM

Crude hit a high of 99.11 overnight and looks like it setting up to take a little bit of rest. The daily charts of Crude and Gold are more meaningful than the overnight so I will address those next.

The US$/YEN pair doesn't have the same pattern as the American Index futures but once again it is hard to compare this market to the American markets overnight due to the timing issues, ie they both trade at different times, Forex trading 24/7 and the futures have the weekend off. Link

Jane Fox : 11/26/2007 9:00:20 AM

Overnight the American Index futures were able to rally right out of the gate but the sellers came back to the table and brought them all back to under their respective previous day highs. Link

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