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Keene Little : 11/28/2007 11:22:58 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Wednesday's big rally left me guessing at the end of the day if that might have been it for yet another bear market rally or instead the start of something bigger to the upside. The bulls will need some follow through, or only allow small corrective pullbacks to convince me that something more bullish has started.

The DOW's daily chart shows price rallied right up to its broken uptrend line from July 2006 and the bulls do not want to see a kiss goodbye here: Link . SPX could rally a little higher to hit stronger resistance near 1490 (another 20 points, or 200 DOW points, higher).

NDX might have completed an A-B-C bounce off the low on Nov 12th with two equal legs up at 2098.20 which was tagged on Wednesday. The short term pattern would look better with a small pullback and a new high (pink) but it may not happen: Link . The RUT also could rally a bit higher to tag potential resistance at its broken uptrend line from August 2004 near 776: Link

But the bottom line is that the quick spurt higher in the market may have been more a result of short covering than anything else and they're hard to trust until we see follow through after a correction (or it could just blow higher from here but then you'd just have to buy it on faith and that has its own risks). Thursday's trading will provide some important clues.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 10:23:23 PM

Swing trade put raise target alert! ... for the one (1) S&P Depository Receipt SPY Dec. $142 Put (SFB-XL) to $143.50 (from $138) in the underlying.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 10:05:02 PM

StockCharts.com's $BPSPX Link ... off just a little, but they adjust downward price action on stocks that pay dividends.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 10:03:03 PM

Bull Confirmed ... Wednesday's action Dorsey/Wright's broad S&P 500 Bullish % (BPSPX) reverse back up to "bull confirmed" from "bull correction" at 42% (42.17% actual) as 32 component stocks found reversing higher PnF buy signals on their charts.

OI Technical Staff : 11/28/2007 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 5:52:45 PM

January Crude Oil (cl08f) settled down $3.80, or -4.06% at $90.62.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 5:51:37 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 5:46:22 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 4:07:06 PM

YM 13,308 ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 4:00:54 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold long position in DUG.

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 3:59:40 PM

They're going to drive it back to the highs just to keep the bears away into the close. Watch what futures do after the cash market closes for some clues for tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 3:59:19 PM

Swing trade bearish long alert! ... for 1/4 position in the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG) at the offer of $43.27.

Stop goes $40. Target $48.00.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 3:47:47 PM

CFC $8.73 -2.67% ... not out of the woods.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 3:46:33 PM

YM 13,307 ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 3:46:14 PM


DJ- Shares rise 3% as mortgage lender sets aside $1.4 billion during 4Q to cover higher losses on home-equity loans caused by deterioration in real-estate market. Special reserve covers an $11.9 billion portfolio of loans that the bank originated or acquired through indirect sources.

WFC $30.69 +2.88% ...

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 3:34:45 PM

The DOW has now tagged its broken uptrend line from July 2006. With the potential that this is simply an oversold bounce back up to support-turned-resistance it would be a good short play here. I'm playing with a couple of ideas as to what could be next but one of them is a swift decline from here (pink): Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 3:32:08 PM

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) finished up 8/1 bp at 4.025%.

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 3:26:05 PM

The SPX should have no trouble reaching 1490 this week. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 3:23:06 PM

SPY $147.38 +3.38% ... probes 50% retracement of 8/15/07 low to recent 10/11/07 high.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 3:21:18 PM

Buy program premium ... SPY $147.33

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 3:14:37 PM

Buy program premium ... SPY $147.28

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 3:12:51 PM

YM 13,318 ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 3:12:15 PM

DXY 75.128 (30-minute delayed) ... backfilled gap higher.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 3:11:10 PM

TRIN 0.39 now

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 3:10:20 PM

YM short stop alert! 13,319

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 3:02:25 PM

YM short alert! ... go short the YM here at 13,304. Stop is tight at 13,319. Target 13,220.

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 2:45:41 PM

If you have the standard Bollinger Band settings on your daily chart (20-dma, 2 std deviations) you'll notice a solid trend tends to push one side of the BB while using the middle of the band (the 20-dma) for support or resistance. That's why it's important here--SPX has bounced back up to its 20-dma and if it drops back down then it will likely drop to a new low and continue pushing the lower band down. But if it can rally above, and hold above its 20-dma then a rally up to the top of its band, currently near 1537 but coming down fast, would be an expected move.

Tab Gilles : 11/28/2007 2:44:56 PM

Weekly EIA Report Link

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 2:36:04 PM

During a trend it's a good idea to keep an eye on the 20-dma and for SPX that's just under 1467 today. It's fairly common for SPX to overthrow and underthrow this average when you review its daily chart but usually not for more than a day or so. Therefore it will be important to watch price behavior around this moving average to get a sense as to whether or not today's rally is completing just another bear market rally or is instead the start of a larger rally.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 2:20:36 PM

YM 13,304 ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 2:20:14 PM

Bears have played a major roll in today's rally too!

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 2:18:19 PM

TRIN 0.40 ... undercuts DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 2:16:36 PM

YM 13,328

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 2:16:23 PM

Selling long the YM here at WEEKLY R2.

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 2:13:22 PM

Went the bulls come back to town you reallllyyyy know it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 2:11:37 PM

Buy program premium SPY $146.88 +3.02% ...

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 2:10:57 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The economic slowdown has begun, according to the Federal Reserve's latest report on conditions across the country released Wednesday.

The economy continued to grow, but at a reduced pace, according to the report, known informally as the Beige Book for the color of its cover.

The report is a collection of anecdotal reports from the 12 Fed Bank districts. It is designed to give Fed officials a flavor of economic conditions on the ground as they prepare for their next interest-rate setting meeting on Dec. 11.

Seven of the 12 districts reported a slower pace of growth, with the remainder describing conditions as moderate or mixed.

Conditions in the real estate sector continued to deteriorate, with only a few signs of stabilization amid the gloom.

The glut of available homes for sale is keeping downward pressure on house prices and construction activity, the report said.

No turnaround is on the horizon until well into 2008, contacts said.

Two of the few bright spots were manufacturing and tourism, which benefit from the weaker dollar.

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 2:09:40 PM

Beige Book - Weak dollar boosting factories and tourism:

Beige Book finds pessimism about holiday sales

Some labor markets have loosened: Beige Book

Retail inventories above desired levels: Beige Book

Food and energy putting pressure on prices: Beige Book

Glut of unsold homes weighing on prices, Beige Book

Standards up on consumer loans, Beige Book says

Business loan volume down, Beige Book says

Slowdown has arrived: Fed's Beige Book reports

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 2:08:41 PM

A 38% retracement for SPX would be at 1471.

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 2:10:10 PM

No rest for the weary bulls (yet) and now the DOW has made it up to the 38% retracement of the Oct-Nov decline, at 13287. Its broken uptrend line from July 2006 is near 13325.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 2:06:01 PM

Prior Fed Beige Book (before Oct. 5, 2007) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 2:03:17 PM

Fed Beige Book (before Nov. 16, 2007) Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 2:01:44 PM

Trading collars in ... much earlier than now.

NYSE Comp. +233 pts

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 1:58:29 PM

PHLX lowers to $1.10. NYSE wants some action and shows up at $1.10. Also with a bid of $0.05.

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 1:58:24 PM

There is a very good chance the SPX will retest 1490 this week. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 1:57:30 PM

CHA-LT gets a bid $0.05.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 1:57:15 PM

CHA-LT ... showing 5 traded at $0.70. Currently no bid x $1.10 on the CBOE. PHLX off at $2.25.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 1:55:53 PM

China Tel (CHA) $82.24 +10.46% ... takes a look at MONTHLY 61.8% retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 1:49:10 PM

XLF $30.19 +4.82% ... session high $30.38, almost a match of its 11/08/07 close ($30.37).

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 1:46:14 PM

Morgan Stanley (MS) $52.36 +5.14% ... "fades" a bit after session high of $53.51. Couldn't quite get 11/08/07 close ($53.68)

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 1:26:11 PM

The DOW is now running into its 200-dma and approaching potential Fib resistance around 13255 so be a little more cautious about the long side here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 1:18:01 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bearish position in GG.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 1:17:26 PM

USD/JPY 110.17 x 110.20 +1.11% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 1:16:56 PM

EUR/USD 1.47718 x 1.47738 -0.38% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 1:16:07 PM

GLD $79.06 -1.29% ... $790.60 spot.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 1:15:09 PM

USO $71.89 -3.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 1:14:49 PM

VIX.X 24.03 -8.56% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 1:14:21 PM

Swing trade put alert! ... for one (1) of the Goldcorp GG Jan $32.50 Puts (GG-MZ) at the offer of $1.90. No stop for now. Target $27 in the underlying.

GG $33.74 +0.11% ...

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 12:49:12 PM

We're still getting small sideways consolidations so continue to look higher for now. Once the DOW reaches the 13255 area (assuming it will) then I'll be interested in watching for a shorting opportunity. Until then stay on the long side. A drop back below the lows just before 12:00 PM would indicate we may have seen the highs for the day.

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 12:30:03 PM

I truly think the SPX has to revisit 1490 before it will tell us which way it will head for the rest of the year. Once it gets to 1490 it will probably not get through easily and fall for a couple of days. If it falls and closes below November lows the bulls are in trouble but if it makes a higher low I think we could make new all time highs next year. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 12:10:48 PM

EIA: Weekly Refinery Table that I keep at this Link

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 11:59:15 AM

I had mentioned earlier an upside Fib projection for the DOW at 13254 (2nd leg up = 162% of the 1st) and now for the 2nd leg up I'm getting a projection for the 5th wave at 13256 (to equal the 1st wave) so there's some correlation in this area for a good upside target (and then a short play from there).

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 11:43:25 AM

CHA-LT are no bid x $1.25.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 11:42:35 AM

China Tel (CHA) $79.83 +7.22% ... gapped above its rising 50-day SMA. Today's trade at $77 is 3rd-straight PnF buy signal. Bearish resistance trend now at $85.

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 11:40:54 AM

The little sideways/down consolidation in the DOW and SPX should resolve to the upside for at least a minor new high. SPX 1460-1462 could be tough resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 11:36:46 AM

Overstock.com (OSTK) $25.10 +13.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 11:26:03 AM

Current OPEN MM profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Closed the QLD. Ready to reload.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 11:17:25 AM

VIX.X 23.83 -9.32% ... has seen trade at WEEKLY S1 with low being 23.55.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 11:16:24 AM

SFB-XL are $2.16 x $2.17 ...

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 11:15:37 AM

IF you did not have price charts and only the internals it would not be hard to see who has the controls today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 11:15:30 AM

SPY $145.92 +2.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 11:13:22 AM

VXN.X 28.29 -8.02% ... sits on WEEKLY S1 (28.16)

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 11:11:00 AM

Swing trade long exit alert! for the ProShares Ultra QQQ (AMEX:QLD) at the bid of $104.85 +5.39% ...

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 11:02:25 AM

For the DOW's rally off Monday's low the 2nd leg up would achieve 162% of the 1st leg up (Tuesday morning's rally) at 13253 which is just above its 200-dma at 13240.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 10:59:53 AM

Countrywide Financial (CFC) $9.09 +1.33% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 10:59:21 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey Table at this Link

1-year ARM rises to 6.24%, 30-year fixed falls to 6.09%, just below week ended 5/04/07 inflection low.

Refinances fall notably, most likely "credit crunch," and lenders not willing, or unable to take on.

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 10:56:41 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures traded slightly higher Wednesday, after tumbling over 3% in the previous session, as traders awaited supply data from the Energy Department due later this morning.

Market participants also eyed the possibility that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may increase production at its meeting on Dec. 5 in Abu Dhabi.

Crude oil for January delivery rose 36 cents at $94.78 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

On Tuesday, crude tumbled $3.28, or 3.4%, at $94.42 a barrel.

"While we wait for the cartel's decision, it will be interesting to see whether yesterday's correction will usher the "buy the dip" crowd back in and result in a price reversal," said Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global, in a research note.

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 10:44:23 AM

No slowdown in the rally and in fact shooting higher again. The short term charts show the move up is losing momentum so it's risky chasing it higher but it's obviously still risky thinking short. SPX now looks like it's headed for potential resistance near 1460.

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 10:34:50 AM

NDX has some Fib resistance in th 2075-2077 area which it's currently nearing (trading 2074 here).

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 10:32:32 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link ... Refinances plunged. (see my 11/19/07 Refinance mortgage alert!)

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 10:31:18 AM

Those bearish divergences are starting to show up on the charts so we could top out soon (famous last words as the DOW rallies another 200 points--wink).

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 10:21:53 AM

NASDAQ A/D 2,092/574

NH/NL 43:74 ... DAILY Ratio 36.8%

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 10:21:08 AM

NYSE A/D 2,540/533

NH/NL 29:84 ... DAILY Ratio 25.7%

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 10:19:36 AM

Another push higher this morning should be met with some negative divergences on the short term charts and that would set up a scalp short for a deeper pullback. SPX 1450-1455 is a little wide for a target zone but that's the area to watch for this rally to top out for now.

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 10:17:16 AM

Banks have taken a beating so it's natural to see them up strong today, pulling back a little after rallying +4.5%. That index looks like it needs a consolidation and then another new high to complete a 5-wave move up from Monday and the 295 area (currently trading near 284 and up from a low of 265 last week) looks like upside potential this week.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 10:08:14 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Stopped out of the one (1) RIO-MG.

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 10:04:07 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Sales of existing homes fell further in October even as more homes came on the market, driving the supply of homes to the highest level in 22 years, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday.

Sales dropped 1.2% to a 4.97 million seasonally adjusted annualized pace in October, the real estate advocacy group said. The sales pace is the lowest since 1999, when the group began tracking combined sales of single-family homes and condos.

Sales are down 20.7% in the past year and are down 31% from the peak of 7.21 million two years ago.

October sales were stronger than the 4.85 million pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

The inventory of unsold homes rose by 1.9% to 4.45 million, representing a 10.8 month supply, the highest since 1999.

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 10:03:08 AM

Oct. existing-home median price down record 5.1%

Oct. existing-home inventory at 22-year high

Oct. existing-home sales stronger than 4.85mln expected

Oct. existing-home sales fall 1.2% to 4.97 million

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 9:59:12 AM

Internals are bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 9:54:57 AM

VIX.X 24.68 -6.08% ...

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 9:54:04 AM

The broken uptrend line from August through the Nov 12th low for SPX is just above 1450 so if this 1446 level doesn't hold it back then I'd watch for potential resistance at round number 1450.

Jeff Bailey : 11/28/2007 9:48:55 AM

Swing trade put stopped alert! for the one (1) RIO Jan $35 Put (RIO-MG) at the bid of $3.90.

RIO $33.10

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 9:46:29 AM

That is Existing Home Sales.

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 9:46:12 AM

Home Sales in 15 minutes.

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 9:46:08 AM

Ideally we'll see a small consolidation (30 minutes maybe) and then a new high to give us a 5-wave move up from yesterday afternoon. That might give us SPX 1446. That would then set up at least a larger pullback correction and a scalp short play. I don't see a reason to short this yet and depending on what kind of pullback we get (corrective or not) it's looking like we should be in dip-buying mode.

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 9:45:53 AM

VIX opens well below its previous day lows supporting the S&P futures' open above its previous day highs. You can look at the futures with all data that includes overnight trading or just the daily which starts when the cash opens, at least for the S&P, NDX and Russell futures. Dow futures open at a totally wierd time 8:20 EST.

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 9:43:19 AM

AD line is a bullish +1823

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 9:37:21 AM

SPX blew through resistance at 1436 (downtrend line from Oct 31st and is quickly approaching Fib resistance at 1445-1446. If that resistance holds we could see at least a pullback to the broken downtrend line.

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 9:30:07 AM

Same story here as with Gold, just not a deep enough dip to try and buy. Link

Keene Little : 11/28/2007 9:29:12 AM

Equity futures have been on a strong climb since the 4:00 AM lows and once again we've got a big gap to start the day. It would be a big drop just to close the gaps today (which is not necessary today but the risk for longs). Needless to say we've got a bullish start and we'll have to see what kind of follow through buying there will be.

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 9:28:55 AM

One would have to wonder if Gold is finding support at $800.00/oz. and if you should take another long here. If Gold had tested the swing low at 770 then I may try but this correction was not deep enough for me to try and "buy the dip." Link

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 9:26:13 AM

Take a look at the US$ and Gold market. This relationship is almost as good as the VIX and S&P futures.

I should have shorted Crude when I saw it make a triple top at $100/bl but I have a very hard time shorting bullish markets like I do Gold.

US$/YEN currency pair is confirming the bullish in the American index futures. Link

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 9:20:01 AM

Around 5:00EST the markets were making new overnight lows but they all caught fire and started to rally and have all now broken their respective previous day highs. Link

Linda Piazza : 11/28/2007 9:19:46 AM

I will be away from the Market Monitor for another day.

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 9:15:23 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- With demand for high-technology goods weakening, orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell for the third straight month in October, falling 0.4%, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

The report was in line with the 0.5% drop expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Durable-goods orders fell a revised 1.4% in September.

The details of the report were worse than the headline number suggested, as orders for volatile defense capital goods rose 16.1%, led by demand for military ships. Military ships and planes are extremely expensive and orders tend to swing up and down month by month. Excluding defense goods, orders dropped 0.9%.

The report provides more evidence that the manufacturing sector is slowing despite booming exports. Demand for core capital investment goods fell 2.3%, the biggest drop since February. Orders for business investment goods have fallen 1.7% through the first 10 months of 2007.

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 9:09:32 AM

I follow Bob Brinker's Markettimer and why I am bullish longerterm Link

Jane Fox : 11/28/2007 9:03:43 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- A top Federal Reserve official said Wednesday that recent financial turbulence has undone some of the improvement seen in previous weeks, and repeated the need for "nimble" monetary policy to address economic risks.

The remarks, by Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, suggest that interest rate reductions remain on the table even though policymakers adopted a neutral view of growth and inflation risks at their last meeting.

"The increased turbulence of recent weeks partly reversed some of the improvement in market functioning over the late part of September and in October," Mr. Kohn said in prepared remarks to the Council on Foreign Relations, adding that conditions in term markets "have deteriorated some in recent weeks."

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