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OI Technical Staff : 11/30/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 8:31:09 PM

VIX rose 4.34 points, or +23.4% for MONTH.

Fell 2.74 points, or -10.70% this week.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 8:28:28 PM

On Monday I'll try and post some DIA/SPY/QQQQ/IWM option montages with their Implied Volatilities.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 8:25:09 PM

William! Are you taking notes?

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 8:21:55 PM

"Bingo?" conventional retracement on DIA like Keene uses for wave count would have DIA 61.8% at, at, at $130.09.

Oh boy ... that's also about 1/2 backfill of that powerful gap Wednesday morning.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 8:18:17 PM

On the DJX, you got a "red C" anywhere close to 13,000?

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 8:17:11 PM

Will have to get my WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement on the SPY though. See if that shows up.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 8:16:04 PM

Hey Keene! That "red C" is close to my UPWARDLY revised bearish target for the SPY.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 8:14:15 PM

ES/SPX/SPY Pivot trader's note: The SPY's high in November was found from 09:32-33 AM EST on November 1st.

For SPX, I'd use that 1-minute interval's high of 1,536.61.

OEX pivot traders can also use that interval high.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 7:47:11 PM

On the SPX 30-min chart I've added the wave count for what would be a typical corrective pullback to correct this week's rally. Friday's 3-wave pullback would be just the start of building up a larger degree A-B-C pullback into next week. Confirmation will be a drop back below Friday's low. But a rally back above Friday's high, that stays there, would be potentially much more bullish as it could mean another 5-wave advance is coming. So the key levels for whether or not we're on the bullish (green) path or the bearish (dark red) path are Friday's high and low. I hope this clears up any questions when to use which wave count (answering Jeff's 3:54 PM question). Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 7:32:45 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Trade Blotter of CLOSED Trades since 11/01/07 Link

Note: CDE was entered on 11/2/07 as 1/2 position. Sold 1/4 on 11/2/07, then sold other 1/4 on 11/5/07.

SPG-XP was a sold covered put (when SPG was trading $86.30) against currenly OPEN SPG-MQ.

For the MONTH of November, the S&P 500 (SPX) fell 68.24 points, or -4.4%.

A $10,000 long position would be down $440.00. A $10,000 short position would be up $440.00.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 7:05:21 PM

First reaction when I got back and looked at the charts was no surprise--they pushed it back up for as positive a month-end close as they could get. The bounce off this afternoon's low nearly achieved two equal legs up so it looks like a setup for a down day on Monday.

Gold also looks set up for a continuation lower on Monday--it consolidated in a sideways 4th wave triangle over to its downtrend line which should mean another leg down in wave-5 before setting up a larger bounce to correct this week's decline: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 7:05:20 PM

Not certain, but I do think 7-eleven no longer markets any oil products from Venezuela.

Might just have to find one that sells some diesel and fill up the land yacht tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 6:59:58 PM

Black Hills (BKH) Gets Rate OKs from Wyoming Regulators

$6.7M Increase For Electric Rates
$4.4M Increase For Gas Rates

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 6:58:09 PM

Monday's pivot tables (with new week and new month and switch to February contract for gold): Link and Link

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 6:57:03 PM

Chavez sounds like a dangerous man, sort of like a caged animal.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 6:43:08 PM

Venezuela's Chaves Threatens To Cut Off Oil To US

DJ- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez threatened Friday to cut off oil shipments to the U.S. as soon as next week in case the U.S. tries to destabilize his government during this weekend's electoral process. The president also ordered the military and oil workers to guard oil facilities starting Friday night ahead of Sunday's constitutional reform vote to prevent sabotage. "If the 'yes' vote wins and the Venezuelan oligarchy unleashes violence saying there is fraud ... (Oil Minister Rafael) Ramirez, order yourself on Monday to stop shipments to the United States," Chavez said in a televised speech during the last day of campaigning. "They're planning to sabotage the oil industry, to sabotage the electricity sector," Chavez shouted, referring to the U.S. and Venezuelan opposition groups. Chavez said he knew of an intelligence operation by the U.S. government to destabilize his administration. If that plan is "activated, there won't be one drop of Venezuelan oil for the U.S. If they want to come take our oil, they will have to endure 100 years of war." Chavez has often threatened to cease oil sales to the U.S., and considers U.S. President George W. Bush to be his enemy. During a public event attended by tens of thousands of his supporters, the president tried to rally his followers to approve a constitution that will give him additional powers. The reform would allow Chavez to run for office as often as he likes, to eliminate freedom of speech and due process during a state of emergency, and to push forward a planned socialist system. In other threats, Chavez said he could also nationalize Spanish banks in Venezuela, following a recent political spat with Spain's King Juan Carlos. During a heads-of-state meeting in Chile last month, the king ordered Chavez to "shut up" in a heated exchange. Spanish banks Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria (BBV) or BBVA, and Banco Santander SA (STD) own and operate two of the largest financial institutions in Venezuela. Venezuela's leader also took issue with the press ahead of the vote, and said he could close television stations that violate electoral laws by broadcasting results early. Foreign journalists should also watch out, he said, or they could find themselves expelled from the Andean country.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 6:42:14 PM

Oh hear we go ....

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 6:39:41 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 6:32:50 PM

Today's Most Active Single-Stock Futures at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 6:28:31 PM

Police Arrest Suspect In Hostage-Taking At NH Clinton Office

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 6:10:05 PM

It's just like cutting a portion of that losing trade in the account that just hasn't performed isn't it?

SIV exposure now $66 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 6:07:34 PM

Citigroup Continuing To Sell Down SIV Assets

DJ- Assets in structured investment vehicles sponsored by Citigroup Inc. (C) fell 20% to $66 billion as of Nov. 30 from $83 billion at the end of September, spokesman Jon Diat said.

"We continue to focus on liquidity and reducing leverage," Diat said in an e-mailed statement.

Citigroup runs seven SIVs, which issue short-term debt to buy higher-yielding, longer-dated assets - pocketing the difference in the interest rates. The business model fell apart during the credit crunch that began this summer, as buyers worried about exposure to risky debt like subprime mortgages balked at buying SIVs' commercial paper.

Citigroup said in a securities filing Nov. 5 that about 98% of its SIVs are fully funded through the end of the year.

Credit ratings company Moody's Investors Service said Friday it has lowered or is likely to cut the credit ratings on about $64.9 billion of SIVs sponsored by Citigroup.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 5:47:46 PM

Swing trade call establish stop alert! ... for the one (1) Altria MO Jan $70 Call (MO-AN) to $76.70 in the underlying.

MO $77.56 +2.07%

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 5:38:00 PM

Dr. Bernanke's Speech from last night at this Link

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 5:37:48 PM

Fed's Poole: ... Unfortunate Some Have Misread Fed's Motive
Fed Policy Can't Affect 4Q Economy, Aimed at 2008
Fed Doesn't Follow Mkt; Must Be Williing To Surprise

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 5:15:15 PM

Swing trade put raise target alert! ... for the one (1) Simon Property Group Link SPG Jan $85 Put (SPG-MQ) to $88.10 in the underlying.

Note: Due to higher dividend, StockCharts.com's PnF chart may not be accurate on historical basis.

First bearish call on SPG that I made was back on 4/02/07 at the $112 level.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 4:56:09 PM

Simon Property Group (SPG) goes out at $98.45 +3.18% ... using a MONTHLY high of $103.91 and low of $85.64, December's MONTHLY Pivot Levels are ... $77.73, $88.09, Piv= $96.00, $106.36, $114.27.

Note: SPG did trade its MONTHLY S2 ($86.80) on 11/21/07 and then again on 11/26/07.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 4:25:06 PM

Fed's Poole: Rate Cuts Meant Macro Stability, Not Moral Hazard
Policy Objective Was To Restore Normal Markets
Active Financial Market Central To Econ Growth
US Econ Shouldn't Suffer To Punish Speculators (see bottom of MM at 11:01:15 PM and 11:43:40 PM)

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 4:16:10 PM

I'm not a "candlesticker" either, but this was the first down week for the USO since week of 08/12/07.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 4:14:15 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) goes out the month at $69.89 -2.44%.

Monthly Pivots will be derived from High of $77.53, Low of $69.58 and today's close.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 4:09:21 PM

XLF $31.00 +2.47% ... juuust above its 11/08/07 close.

Extension of a very short-term trend from 11/08/07 low to an 11/15/07, serves resistance at today's close.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 4:05:18 PM

Morgan Stanley (MS) $52.72 +0.72% ... couldn't close the deal at its 11/08/07 close ($53.68)

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 4:03:27 PM

YM 13,404 ... "ping"

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 4:03:22 PM

I get the feeling, based on observation and some of today's comments, that the only "idiots" still buying aren't bulls. (wink)

Sometimes, the retail crowd thinks the "buyers" equal "bulls"

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 3:58:07 PM

On 11/28/07, I profiled a short at 13,304 and got it crammed down my throat.

Yesterday saw a lot of program premiums around that level.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 3:56:13 PM

YM low so far today ... 13,306.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2007 3:56:10 PM

Time to make your end-of-day decisions. Today's pullback couldn't have been more textbook. Here's the SPX chart from last night's Wrap with last night's annotations and today's prices: Link Today's pullback obviously creates a potential reversal signal, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the 1470-1472 zone provide support instead. It's going to leave you guessing today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 3:54:42 PM

Keene! ... If you get a chance.

I know nothing of wave analysis.

But ... do traders stick with an original set of wave levels? Or are they shifting day to day?

The only reason I thought you were still short from Tuesday's evening's extended session was some of your "idiot" comments today.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 3:50:57 PM

I've got to run off to a meeting. I'll be back later to update some charts. Enjoy the rest of your day.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 3:50:27 PM

Whoever said I was short from NQ 2035? Even if I was I would have covered once the move up overnight on the 27th got above the downtrend line from November 13th. I mean hellooo?

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 3:48:34 PM

Keene ... so you are still short the NQ from 2,035?

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 3:45:09 PM

And speaking of two equal legs--a move up here from the low with two equal legs up is at ES 1484 and YM 13397. We should be due another drop after this so watch those levels to short.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 3:43:51 PM

Nice recovery into the close. That's why I always look for where a move will have two equal legs. It's so common for the market to reverse after a zigzag correction that it makes for one of the highest odds plays. I didn't want to play it long into the close but now I'm wishing I did.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 3:41:50 PM

Yes, you're right Jeff. I need to include the Tuesday buyers as well. But hey, if they didn't do what they do I wouldn't get my EW pattern completions like this morning's pop up, so I must thank them. I said yesterday the pattern would look best with one more leg up for the 5th wave and I thank them for handing me a short play a nice short play setup.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 3:39:47 PM

BIX 300.65 +5.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 3:38:40 PM

US Dollar Index (DXY) 03:00 close 76.14 +0.74% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 3:36:49 PM

Keene ... what about the "idiots" from Tuesday ? (wink, wink, BIG grin)

Don't want to leave them out.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 3:21:16 PM

DJX.X up 2.10% last 20-days.

SPX +1.44% same time.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 3:20:14 PM

SPY $147.63 +0.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 3:19:44 PM

DJX $133.11 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 3:18:57 PM

Get ready to reload. The MARKET usually gives a 2nd chance.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 3:18:18 PM

For some of you NAKED put sellers that sold the lows, don't be afraid to take some profits off the table!

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 3:15:48 PM

The DOW tagged the level at 12284 for two equal legs down from this morning's high. The short term pattern of the 2nd leg down does not look complete yet (so more downside is expected) but it's a good place to take partial profits and/or pull your stop down tighter.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 3:12:17 PM

My comment last night about the "idiots" buying the rumor on another rate cut may have been a little harsh. But now with the entire gap up having been given back, I rest my case (wink).

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 3:07:04 PM

QLD Alert! $104.85 ... bullish exit point from 11/28/07.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2007 3:05:06 PM

That scenario predicted by the combined 15- and 30-minute Keltner charts and outlined in my 2:32:30 post played out all the way down to the part where the SPX closed the 30-minute back above "1478.30 or so," but there's been no bounce attempt as yet. Support has weakened.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 3:04:25 PM

VIX.X 22.96 -4.21%

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 3:04:01 PM

Swing trade covered put close out alert! ... Let's buy back the one (1) Simon Property Group SPG Dec $80 Put (SPG-XP) at the offer of $0.25.

SPG $97.13 +1.80% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 2:50:12 PM

Sen Clinton / Hostage Crisis (update) ... DJ- Hillary Clinton Friday cancelled her appearance at a Democratic National Committee meeting because of the hostage situation at one of her campaign offices in New Hampshire. Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean announced the cancellation at the meeting in Vienna, Va. A man claiming to have a bomb is holding one or more hostages at Clinton's store-front campaign office in the small New Hampshire town of Rochester, police said. He is demanding to speak to the New York senator.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 2:49:18 PM

Hostage crisis?

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 2:49:03 PM

DJ- Sen Clinton Cancels Appearance Amid Hostage Crisis

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 2:47:58 PM

Note: The "bearish signal reversed" Pnf chart pattern needs a MINIMUM 7 columns of alternating X and O.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 2:45:50 PM

Forest Labs (FRX) $38.46 +1.47% Link ... chart suggests to me that there is NO catalyst for gain.

Needs a trade at $42.00 to see a reversing higher PnF buy signal.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 2:45:49 PM

I've lowered the stop on my YM short to 13420--not much but close to my 413 entry and just trying to reduce risk without subjecting it to poential whipsaws. If stopped out I'll likely stay flat for the rest of the day. Stepping away for about 30 minutes.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 2:43:56 PM

Price action is very choppy and there could be an effort here to simply hold the market up for month end. The choppy sideways/up consolidation for NDX looks like a bear flag after this morning's drop. It could let go in the last hour if fund managers are happy with what they'll be able to show on their November books.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 2:42:56 PM

There are times when market participants have NO IDEA what an outcome will be. However, when the NEWS BREAKS and "shocks" are found, the PRICE moves can be great (up/down).

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 2:40:27 PM

I should add, that I also believe the MARKET is "all knowing" and much smarter than I. It is a VERY good at assessing RISK, based on FACTs at hand, some FACTS yet to be revealed that it already KNOWS about. As such, I must believe it is GENIUS, not idiotic. So, as a trader/investor and market technician I must respect it.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 2:33:07 PM

USO Alert! $69.87 -2.47% ... probes morning low. Bounce high has been $71.64.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2007 2:32:30 PM

If I study 15-minute and 30-minute charts together, I can understand the current stalemate. On the 30-minute SPX charts, support is beginning to group near 1477-1480 on 30-minute closes, beginning to look a little firmer there than it has been. However, on the 15-minute chart, resistance is converging just above the SPX's current prices, and it's looking strong. Examine that 15-minute chart, and you're thinking the SPX is headed down: examine the 30-minute one, and you're thinking, sure, maybe a little dip to test 1477.50, perhaps even piercing that and moving down toward 1475, but then probably a 30-minute close back at or above 1478.30 or so and then a bounce attempt. No conclusions from these charts. They're contradicting each other.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 2:29:49 PM

XOM is a "key stock" ... Due to horizontal limitations in screen capture ability, I couldn't show others. CVX, COP, SLB.

Still, ties in with some of Jane's educational comments today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 2:24:29 PM

It has been my observation after roughly 13 years industry experience that the MARKET is VERY EFFICIENT. Just as we see "buy program premiums" and "sell program premiums," which are very short-term (seconds) of price inneficiency between cash and futures quickly closed (that is what is known as ARBITRAGE), we will see the "inneficiency" closed in other areas of a market.

SHOULD YOU EVER see CONTINUED LENGTHS of inneficiency, it is time to start asking some SERIOUS questions as to "why?"

Same could be said for trading/investing scenarios. If things are going to the moon, then why is this/that going down? If things are going in the tank, then why is this/that going up?

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 2:17:05 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List Link

Snapshots from earlier with some "focus" on DUG and USO Link

And earlier Link

And yesterday's close Link

Note: In Yesterday's MM, I noted an ~$127 loss differential in USO long and DUG pair. For the better part of session, it was $127-$140, say $133.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 2:14:11 PM

For example, two equal legs down for SPX/ES would be at 1472/1474 (above today's gap) and for the DOW/YM it would be at 13284/13301 (below today's gap). But first we need to see new daily lows.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 2:11:45 PM

If we get a new daily low now then I'll be looking for the first downside objective at two equal legs down from this morning's high. If today's pullback is to be just an a-b-c pullback correction then that's where to look for support. If it's the start of something more serious to the downside then the next leg down (wave-3) should be accompanied by some strong selling.

But if this turns around and heads higher again then it'll mean we're in a larger choppy price pattern and I'd rather stay on the sidelines until something sets up.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 2:05:31 PM

That's more better.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 2:05:11 PM

Stop on my YM short is at 13430 for now.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 2:03:52 PM

The bounce in YM has a little bit of a rising wedge look to it and could get another bounce back up to the 13440 area. Thinking of pulling my stop down tight and then jump back in if it gets up a little higher.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 1:57:06 PM

This morning's quick rally in the DOW took it up to the 50% retracement of its Oct-Nov decline (13461) and interestingly is right at the line that I placed on the chart that is parallel to the uptrend line from July 2006 (I made it bold red to stand out a little bit): Link

The brief bounce back above the broken July 2006 uptrend line on November 14th led me to believe that we could get the same amount of "throw-over" above the line again today and sure enough that's how far it got. It's probably purely coincidental that the dip on Sept 10th is also at that trend line but may not have been--this kind of symmetry is fairly common.

Assuming we start a deeper pullback from here it will then be a question as to whether we're in the dark red wave count (looking for a pullback and then rally into December) or the pink wave count (looking for a continuation of the decline into the new year). That can't be known until the decline gets going. But if this pullback leads to another push higher then the more bullish green wave count will need to be considered more strongly.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 1:48:17 PM

XLF-LG are $0.29 x $0.31. high has been $0.47.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 1:47:41 PM

XLF $31.16 +3.00% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 1:47:04 PM

Morgan Stanley (MS) $53.44 +2.10% ... has slipped back below its 11/08/07 close.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 1:43:19 PM

Yesterday I discussed a "high pole" warning. The column of O from $77.00 to $71.50, and today's trade at $71.00 would heighten alert to a "top."

"Should not" trade $73.50.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 1:41:13 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) alert! $71.25 -0.54% Link ... now above initial bull stop of $71.00.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 1:38:25 PM

Keene! Thanks for the NDX wave count update.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 1:37:19 PM

Forest Labs' News Center Link

Note: Last item was 11/29/07 regarding LEXAPRO Phase III study in Adolescents.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 1:34:50 PM

Forest Labs (FRX) recent news items from Yahoo! Finance Link

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 1:32:17 PM

YM 13413 is two equal legs up and a 38% retracement and is therefore the level to short. Keep your stop rlatively tight--perhaps around 13440. The short play is to take us to new lows so high reward:risk ratio.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 1:28:15 PM

VIX.X 22.67 -5.4%

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2007 1:27:04 PM

So far, the SPX still maintains 30-minute closes above the 30-minute 9-ema, but that 9-ema did flatten a bit, as expected during the lunchtime lull. Over the next 40-minute period in the day, we sometimes see some stop-running moves as big money returns from lunch and tries out either support to see if it holds (and if it does, the bears who bought the "breakdown" are stopped) or resistance to see if it holds (and if it does, bulls who bought the supposed breakout are stopped). In other words, it's a time to be careful of your assumptions and your profits.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 1:25:11 PM

For SPX a 50% retracement of today's decline is 1482.63 and two equal legs up for its bounce off th mid-day low is at 1482.82 (ES 1485.50). That's the level I'd watch for the next short play to set up.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 1:23:17 PM

Swing trade bullish call alert! ... for one (1) of the Forest Labs FRX Jan08 $40 Calls (FHA-AH) at the offer of $1.50.

No stop for now, target $43.50.

FRX $38.33 +1.13% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 1:21:07 PM

Hmmm ... seeing 500 contracts having traded on the CBOE in the FHA-AH

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 1:19:13 PM

I did not know that market participants might be looking for comment regarding the late stage Phase III trial in FRX near-term.

I (Jeff Bailey) have NO knowledge of what the Phase III trial may reveal.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 1:17:45 PM

On 11/26/07, American Technology Research had this to say ...

Barron's: Forest Laboratories (FRX: NYSE) By American Technology Research ($36.77, November 26, 2007)

WE ARE UPGRADING SHARES of Forest Labs this morning to Buy (from Neutral) with a 12-month price target of $48 (a 32% upside) as we believe the current share price reflects only the franchise risk to Forest's current core products, but does not properly reflect its pipeline assets. We arrive at our $48 price target using a 15 times multiple (25% discount to sector average) applied to our forward 12-month earnings per share estimate of $3.18.

Additionally, with the company valued at an enterprise value of $8.6 billion, ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 1:15:34 PM

Just got off the phone with my brother. He's a specialty rep with Forrest Labs (FRX) $38.59 +1.16%.

He was asking if I'd seen any news today regarding the Phase III trial of Nebivolol for treatment of congestive heart failure.

At this point I have not.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 1:02:13 PM

Jeff, if you're referring to the green wave count then no it hasn't reached that point. As the chart shows, that's the bullish wave count. The bearish wave count (dark red) called for a bounce to correct the decline into the Nov 12th low. The 3-wave correction looks good for a finish today and is labeled wave-2. At this time I'm recommending a short against this morning's high. Then I'll watch the pattern of the decline and its uptrend line to see if another run higher looks plausible. Right now the bearish count calls for a strong decline from here into the new year.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 12:55:20 PM

Keene! has the NDX completed its #5 at this point? Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 12:50:39 PM

Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $88.91 +0.37% ... here's Dorsey's PnF chart Link

With SECTOR still "bear confirmed", cognizant at this point of a "bull trap." Would need 3-box reversal to $86 to begin to identify.

XOM is a INDU/OEX/SPX component. Also a heavyweight of just about ANY oil/gas-related index.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 12:39:33 PM

QLD looks just like the NDX charts I posted last night. The bounce off the November low looks good for a completed 3-wave move. This morning's gap open was soundly rejected at its 50-dma. I'd be looking to sell bounces on this one and then I'll be watching to see how the decline develops. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 12:36:39 PM

Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $88.68 +0.10% ... yesterday's trade at $89.00 could be a "bull trap."

The "bull trap" is a Pnf chart pattern where we witness a triple top buy signal, but the buy signal comes when MARKET/SECTOR is in a "bear phase".

Sign of bull trap is a quick reversal back lower.

Now add Jane's EXCELLENT education of MARKET dynamics from 11:46:29.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 12:30:08 PM

Even as a turned bull on 11/27/07 I'm eager to buy a pullpack. Can't imagine how eager a still short bear is after seeing that.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 12:28:29 PM

Good gravy! QLD traded as high as $110.85 at the open. Well above my initial bull target of $107.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 12:22:39 PM

Equities dropping again. This should be the 5th wave down for today's decline. For short term traders it would be a good time to take some profits off the table if you shorted this morning's high (at least pull your stop down tighter). Scalpers should look for a buying opportunity if a new low is met with bullish divergence (I'm not sure if we'll see an acceleration lower instead so look for those divergences). Assming we'll get a larger bounce to a lower high I'll then be looking for the next shorting opportunity to set up, perhaps later this afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 12:21:33 PM

Might have been some "genius" that's NAKED the $10.00 calls at less than $1.00?

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 12:18:16 PM

After an a-b-c bounce off the low on Nov 19th gold has turned back down and is in a tight parallel down-channel so that's our guide for the short trade (30-min chart of February contract): Link . I had recommended a long term short position in gold after it tagged its upside Fib target in early November (near 846 for the December contract, 855 for the February contract).

It has now broken its uptrend line from August (coinciding with the dollar's break of its downtrend line): Link . The 50-dma near 783 will likely provide some support (could do a throw-under). If so then watch for bounce to find resistance at its broken uptrend line, currently near 793.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 12:16:33 PM

Good gravy! CFC traded as high as $12.00.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 12:15:40 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 12:12:39 PM

Think of the trader still short the NQ from Tuesday evening's extended session.

In order to NOT be an "idiot," they could not have stopped out (according to some trader's thought process).

Perhaps the "greater fool" theory?(wink)

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 12:06:26 PM

Jane! I agree! However, there are some "idiots" that just don't understand that.

So, once a trader makes the call, they should at least benchmark the call. The if they're proven WRONG, even initially, they might want to wait until the market EVENTUALLY AGREES before making the same call again, and again, and again, and again.

Today perhaps GG -4.00% and SPX +0.82% is the 30%.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 12:06:18 PM

If we get the new low it's possible we'll see YM close its gap at 13334 but it could be a stretch to expect ES to close its gap at 1471.25. If it were to close its gap then getting a larger bounce from there would be questionable (might be a little more bearish pattern playing out in that case). SPX is holding up better today than the DOW. The techs are clearly the weakest.

Until this morning's decline drops below yesterday afternoon's bounce high (near 3:00 PM) it remains possible that this morning's pullback is only a correction for the move up from yesterday afternoon. What that means is we could still get a minor new high to finish the wave count. If we do get a new high (SPX 1490 maybe) it should be accompanied by bearish divergences and would be the next opportunity to short this rally.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2007 12:04:36 PM

So far, the SPX has been maintaining 30-minute closes above its 30-minute 9-ema, now at 1478.57. We've moving into the lunchtime lull period, however, when 9-ema's tend to flatten.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 12:01:06 PM

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) $35.50 +3.31% ... updated PnF chart and comments Link

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 11:51:49 AM

If we get another low for this morning's move down it could be counted as a 5-wave move from this morning's high. That would set up a larger bounce and then another shorting opportunity against this morning's high. I don't see enough evidence to suggest that I should be looking to buy this dip.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 11:46:29 AM

Jeff 70% of a stock's price movement, whether it is a Gold stock or an Oil stock, comes from the general stock market. So if you want to short Crude I would use USO which is futures based. (response as to why the idiots are not selling these stocks)

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 11:42:11 AM

Goldcorp (GG) $32.22 -4.05% ... PnF chart Link ... Before bears can even start to smile, we must see a 3-box reversal back lower to $31. You know what we did last time it traded there right?

Then there's work to be done with a reversing lower PnF sell signal at $30.

If the trade is EVER closed out for a PROFIT, then we can slap each other on the back!

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 11:31:07 AM

GoldCorp (GG) $32.29 -3.84% ... Looks like market participants have come to their senses!

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 11:30:21 AM

Anytime market participants don't agree with my analysis, well...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 11:29:33 AM

UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG) $42.15 -0.11% ... with energy commodities getting clocke, I don't know why the "idiots" aren't selling these stocks.

I'll change my view on market participants when DUG gets back above initial entry point.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 11:23:59 AM

Recent NASDAQ-100 buy and sell signal search ... quick look at some stocks where I query Dorsey's data base of NDX components only (what is impacting the BPNDX?). Link

Again, only the 1st, or reversing HIGHER/LOWER BUY/SELL signal impacts the bullish %. Each of the 100 stocks gets one (1) vote.

SHLD Link ... did give a reversing higher PnF buy signal at $116, but yesterday gave a reversing LOWER sell signal at $106. So, it counts -1.

GOOG Link ... I alerted traders here in the MM as to GOOG's 1st reversing higher PnF buy signal at $676 on 11/23/07. Yesterday GOOG generated another buy signal. However, yesterday's buy is 2nd. Only the 1st on 11/23/07 counts as +1 toward bullish %.

MRVL Link ... gave a reversing lower sell signal at $16.00. So, counted -1 against bullish %.

JOYG Link ... has given four (4) buy signals. However, only the 1st at $47.00 attributes +1 back on 09/18/07.

LEAP Link ... has given four (4) sell signals. A powerful spread triple bottom at $60!. However, only the first reversing lower sell signal at $73 and also powerful "bearish triangle" counted as -1 toward bullish %. See that bearish resistance trend?

I outline in BLUE the action from 11/28/07. There were four (4) reversing higher "buy signals" and there was one (1) reversing lower "sell signal", so for that day, we would count +4 - 1 = +3 toward the BPNDX.

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2007 11:12:26 AM

Although the TRAN looked weaker than the SPX, OEX and Dow yesterday, it's playing catch-up today. Yesterday those other indices produced doji or near doji, but the TRAN pulled back strongly. Today, the TRAN has reached up toward a 50% retracement of its decline off the October high along with those other indices. That's a corroboration that bulls needed to see, but the TRAN, like the others, is so far pausing as this important level is tested. We know there has to be some selling as this level is tested; we just don't know yet whether there will be enough willing buyers to absorb all the supply or whether supply will overwhelm willing buyers. Logic has to suggest that a high today for the SPX and OEX will be somewhere around their current highs even if prices shoot up this afternoon, but common sense doesn't have much to do with markets sometimes, especially on a Friday afternoon.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 10:56:05 AM

The US dollar has broken its downtrend line from August this morning. The euro is dropping hard as are the commodities including gold and oil. The interesting thing about this development is that the dollar has been dropping each time the Fed has threatened another rate decrease (make the dollar less competitive). So why is the dollar rallying now? I wouldn't want to predict interest rate policy based just on the dollar but I do find it interesting. One can only imagine the pain in the stock market if the Fed decides to stand firm on rates on Dec 11th.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 10:47:47 AM

SPX has now tested 1490 (1488 actually) so this is where the bulls and bears are going to do battle. I believe the SPX will not get through here easily since it has had quite a run of late and this level has been hard to break in the past.

I believe the SPX will either consolidate or fall from here and then we will all be watching to see if the bulls can get a close above 1490 or if the bears can get a close below 1400. In the meantime I will be on the sidelines so I do not get hit with shrapnel. Link

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 10:45:16 AM

This being end of month (which could continue into the first couple of days of December) there could be an effort to hold the market up and then new-month money could continue to hold it up. So while I like the short side here I'm certainly not going to stand in the way of a further rally. SPX 1490-1491 should remain tough resistance but any rally above that level would have me joining the bulls to wherever it's headed next. However, right now I'd say the risk is on the bulls' side.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 10:36:52 AM

One point to keep in mind about the current credit crisis, which many market participants think the Fed can help with rate reductions, is that the credit contraction will be a result of lack of demand for credit. There is of course also a tightening in credit standards which will reduce the amount of credit that's made available and the Fed can help a little with that part. But as people become fearful of the future (part of the cyclical ups and downs in social mood) they will be less inclined to take on the risks of borrowing more money.

This has already started to happen and it's why I say the Fed will be pushing on a string if they think lowering rates will help the credit contraction problem (not to mention it was a bubble and will be corrected). The Fed can try to prime the pump with more liquidity and easier credit but they will be unsuccessful. They still have a crashing dollar and rising inflation to deal with and that makes an aggressive rate-lowering campaign much more difficult than 2000-2002.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 10:27:24 AM

StockCharts.com's $BPNDX Link ... not that many dividend payers, so usually matches Dorsey's pretty close.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 10:25:33 AM

Bear Correction ... when I was updating my major market bullish % yesterday morning, I swear Dorsey/Wright's NASDAQ-100 Bullish % (BPNDX) was still at 37%. However, today they show it had indeed reversed back up to "bear correction" from "bear confirmed" at 42.00 (actual 42.00%). Yesterday did see a net loss of 1 stock, or 1% to actual 41.00%. Link

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 10:22:00 AM

NDX has traded back into its previous day range. Link

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 10:16:46 AM

YM has just made a lower high so we could be in for a move down.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 10:16:11 AM

Bull Confirmed ... yesterday's action did see Dorsey/Wright's S&P 100 Bullish % (BPOEX) reverse back up to "bull confirmed" status from "bull correction" at 46% (47% actual). Link

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2007 10:16:07 AM

The SPX closed its first 30-minute period beneath Keltner resistance on the 30-minute chart. Here's the chart as pictured last night in my Wrap: Link That means that the resistance held since it's the close that's important. So, what bulls want to see now is consolidation at the high of the day while the 30-minute 9-ema rises up beneath the candles, providing support for another assault at that resistance level. It's honestly going to take a strong move to push through such important resistance levels on a daily close. I'm not saying it can't happen.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 10:09:31 AM

Techs are really giving up today's gains.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 10:08:42 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Most firms in the Chicago region were growing in November, according to the Chicago purchasing managers' index released Friday. The index improved to 52.9% in November from 49.7% in October. Readings over 50% indicate that more firms were expanding than contracting. Wall Street economists were expecting a reading of about 50.5%. The new-orders index was steady at 53.9%. The employment index improved to 54.4% from 49.5%.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 10:07:37 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Spending on U.S. construction projects resumed a decline in October, reversing two months of gains as outlays on homes and other private building projects fell. Overall, spending on construction projects dropped by 0.8% in October, following a revised gain of 0.2% in September. September's gain was previously estimated to be 0.3%. Year over year, construction spending is down by 0.6%. Spending on private housing projects marked its 20th consecutive decline, dropping by 2.0% in October. That spending is down 15.8% from a year ago.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 10:05:35 AM

And Gold breaks its support - a day late though. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 10:04:16 AM

Altria (MO) $77.00 +1.34% ... X gets another square.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 10:02:40 AM

Countrywide Financial (CFC) $10.42 +12.04% ...

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 10:02:06 AM

OCT CONSTRUCTION SPENDING: -0.8% V -0.3%E - prior revised to 0.2% from 0.3%

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 10:01:35 AM

From a very short term perspective (5-min chart) I see the possiiblity for SPX and DOW to make one more minor new high (maybe have SPX tagging 1490). That's not a given but a possibility.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 10:00:31 AM

XLF $31.15 +2.97% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 9:59:52 AM

Morgan Stanley (MS) Alert! $54.15 +3.45% ... has moved above its 11/08/07 close ($53.68)

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 9:56:13 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Oil stocks rose along with the overall market on Friday even as crude prices retreated below $90 a barrel. The Amex Oil Index (XOI) rose 0.4% to 1,422.

This is an excellent example of how the stock market affects any stocks - oil or gold - more than the commodity.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 9:52:33 AM

GOOG gave us the one more leg up that I was looking for and it too may have finished its bounce. Same with AAPL--it has now achieved its Fib target at 186.27 for two equal legs up in its bounce from Nov 12th. That sets up a short play on that one with a stop just above its November high of 192.68.

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 9:49:41 AM

Poor DELL is not looking so good this morning. It has dropped well below last Friday's low which left this week's bounce as just a correction to the November decline. Could that be advance notice for what NDX is going to do?

Linda Piazza : 11/30/2007 9:49:36 AM

The SPX has reached that level so many, me included, have pointed out as potential resistance. On the daily chart, it hit the 72-ema at the high of the day (almost exactly), approached the 50% retracement of the decline off the October high, and pushed just past the 200-sma and is now falling back toward that important average. It also approached the 11/14 swing high. Last night in my Wrap, I advised those in bullish positions to have their plans in place for a test of this zone, if it occurred.

Tab Gilles : 11/30/2007 9:48:13 AM

We're starting to see costs being passed onto the consumer more and more now....

CHICAGO, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Package delivery company FedEx Corp said on Friday it would raise its standard list rates for FedEx Ground and FedEx Home Delivery by an average of 4.9 percent effective Jan. 7, matching a prior increase at its express delivery unit. FedEx also said it would make other changes to surcharges for the units. The FedEx Express average increase included a 6.9 percent rise in standard list rates and a 2 percentage point reduction in its fuel surcharge, also effective Jan. 7.

MORTON GROVE, Ill., Nov. 29 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Lifeway Foods, Inc., makers of a nutritious, probiotic dairy beverage called Kefir, announced today that it will implement a price increase of approximately 10-15% on it's full catalog of products. This price increase will go into effect in December 2007.

Nov 15 (Reuters) - Lifeway Foods Inc (LWAY) the largest supplier of yogurt-like dairy beverage called kefir, posted a quarterly profit that fell short of market expectations due to higher milk prices, sending its shares down more than 18 percent. The company said milk prices, which hit record levels in September, rose about 110 percent in the latest quarter from a year ago.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 9:48:07 AM

Nov. Chicago PMI vs. 52.9% vs. 50.5% expected

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 9:46:30 AM

Sector Status Changes ... yesterday's action saw Dorsey/Wright's MACHinery/tool reverse back up to "bull alert" from "bear confirmed" status.

METAls non ferrous reversed back up to "bear correction" from "bear confirmed"

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 9:42:43 AM

The 5th wave up for SPX has a Fib projection for it at 1487.45 (for equality with wave-1). The wave pattern from Monday's low is now complete and sets up a short play. The stop should be above 1491 though in case of a move higher to more solid resistance. Link

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 9:42:36 AM

Internals are bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 9:36:31 AM

No surprise here - the AD line is a bullish +1775.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2007 9:31:43 AM

Swing trade long stopped alert! on the US Oil Fund (USO) $70 19 -2.02% ...

Keene Little : 11/30/2007 9:31:32 AM

It looks like weak economic data is bullish this morning. Silly people. They just don't get it--the Fed is not going to be able to save the day. But hope springs eternal and all the signs of an economy grinding down into a recession (not good for the stock market) are being ignored in "hopes" that the Fed will be able to pull the economy back up with another rate cut. It's that slippery slope of hope that will take another bite out of the bulls. Now we'll see it how the gap up holds this morning since the move will complete the 5th wave up that I've been looking for.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 9:17:26 AM

I also posted yesterday that I thought Gold would break support. I believe it is a day behind but will break support today. I have really "thought" about shorting this market but do not have a vehicle to use. I don't want to short an ETF that is based on Gold stocks because 70% of their movement is from the stock market and I think the stock market is up up and away. I don't want to use futures because the leverage is more than my account or stomach can handle if I am wrong. So the only vehicle left to me if GLD but it does not have options so I cannot buy puts. I also cannot short GLD because I will be using an IRA account and you all know they certainly do not allow risky shorting in an IRA. Link

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 9:11:48 AM

Yesterday morning I posted that I suspected Crude would break support and that it had a very good chance of revisiting $80.00/bl. Link

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 9:10:18 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Growth in U.S. consumer spending ground to a halt in October, while inflation eroded households' modest gains in income, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

Nominal incomes rose just 0.2% last month despite strong job growth. But after accounting for a 0.3% rise in prices, October's real after-tax incomes fell 0.1%.

Meanwhile, consumer spending increased 0.2% in nominal terms and was flat after adjusting for inflation. Spending was the weakest since March. Read the full government report.

Both incomes and spending were slightly weaker than expected by Wall Street.

The weak report will put further pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for a third time this year when policymakers sit down for their Dec. 11 meeting.

Inflationary pressures were steady in October. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose, up 0.3% for a second straight month, and is now up 2.9% in the past year, marking the biggest year-over-year gain in 14 months.

Core prices, which by definition exclude food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the second straight month. Core inflation was steady at 1.9% over the past year -- just within the Fed's unofficial comfort zone.

Fed officials are frankly much more worried about signs of weakening in the nation's economy than they are about inflation moving higher. In a speech Thursday, Fed chief Ben Bernanke warned that consumers face "headwinds" that could crimp their spending and slow the economy

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 9:09:07 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The dollar strengthened against the yen Friday, but held broadly flat against the euro after a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke added to expectations of a further rate cut.

The dollar gained 0.6% against the yen at 110.46 yen. The euro edged up 0.1% to change hands at $1.4765.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 9:08:21 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures fell sharply to trade below $90 a barrel on Friday, coming under pressure on speculation that OPEC may increase production quotas next week as well as on easing concerns that a pipeline shutdown will disrupt U.S. supplies.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 9:08:06 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that economic data to be released over the next eight days may contain the answer to the key question: whether to hold rates steady or lower them for the third straight meeting.

In a speech after receiving the award of the 2007 "Citizen of the Carolinas" from the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce, Bernanke played his cards close to the vest about the upcoming policy decision on Dec. 11.

He neither ruled a rate cut in, nor ruled one out. "We will be receiving a good deal of relevant information in the coming days. In making its policy decision, the FOMC will have to judge whether the outlook for the economy or the balance of risks has shifted materially," he said.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 9:06:37 AM

Hopefully you don't have the same kind of beliefs that I do about shorting bullish markets because if you didn't you may have taken a Crude short when it was sooooo obvious it was up against resistance you could have made a bunch of de niro.

It is interesting the US$ and Gold are both moving together today whereas they "should" be moving opposite to one another. One will catch up with the other and since Crude and Gold are joined at the hip I think Gold will play catchup and break its previous day lows and the US$ will break its previous day highs. Link

Jane Fox : 11/30/2007 9:00:34 AM

All American index futures (well all the markets we watch here in the MM) have broken their previous day highs and have made a series of higher highs and lows telling me the bulls have control. Link

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