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Keene Little : 12/19/2007 12:44:04 AM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

I had mentioned at the end of the day on Tuesday how close AAPL had come to overlapping the low on Dec 12th ( Link ) and that if it does overlap it could indicate a rally at least up to its downtrend line near 190 before selling off again (or not, as per the bullish green wave count).

The DOW and SPX are in a similar position and as the DOW 60-min chart shows, a rally above the Dec 12th low at 13325 (SPX 1469) would potentially put us on a bullish (green path): Link . The bearish pattern (dark red) suggests we'll see a consolidation inside Tuesday's trading range before dropping lower again.

Another option, shown on the SPX chart, is for a pullback and then higher high for the bounce but stay below the Dec 12th low (shown in pink) or the 4th wave finished at Tuesday's high and down we go towards 1420 (dark red): Link . I don't like the pink wave count because the 4th wave correction gets too large. It doesn't violate any EW rules if it stays below 1469 but it doesn't pass the smell test. We're at a point where we need to see more price action to help decide which way next. Trade carefully in the meantime.

OI Technical Staff : 12/18/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 9:58:12 PM

RUT.X 754.06 +2.01% ... big day for the small caps.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 5:12:22 PM

NYSE and NASDAQ Closing Internals Link

Do get an inflection low from NYSE and NASDAQ 5-day A/D ratio (Columns M and T).

NYSE's 10-day NH/NL ratio does reverse back lower at needed 34.00% measure (3-box reversal from 40%). NASDAQ's holding on with its 10-day NH/NL ratio. Bulls don't like those 347 new lows. Need something to spark some short covering.

ORCL tomorrow. RIMM on Thursday.

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 5:10:14 PM

Big day for AAPL tomorrow. Today's bounce got about as close as it could to the Dec 12th low at 185.77. Above that would negate the dark red wave count and then it'll be a choice between potentially rallying back up to its downtrend line (pink) or even higher (green). If it rallies immediately tomorrow and gets two equal legs up from this morning's low then we get 189.33 for an upside target. Any higher and I'll be stopping out at 190. Link

If it immediately turns back down then the dark red wave count continues to be the preferred (bearish) wave count. If it ultimately rallies above 190 then I suspect it will make another run for 200 and would make the next short play setup following the 5-wave rally from this morning's low. We've got our key levels and our roadmap laid out in front of us, a stop where price can't hurt us and now all we do is follow the signs.

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 4:25:18 PM

I corrected the label for the 4th wave in the CME chart and re-posted it.

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 4:24:28 PM

CME has an interesting setup. I've been expecting a 4th wave correction in the leg up from its November low. It appears to be hammering out a triangle pattern which is very common for a 4th wave, especially just before the final push higher. Because the 3rd wave in the move up from November was nearly equal to the 1st wave that often portends a 5th wave that is only 62% of the 1st wave. Link

As shown on the chart, if CME drops back down to the bottom of the triangle pattern near 686 that would set up the 5th wave to reach just above 722. That happens to land right on top of the Fib projection for the larger degree 5th wave in the rally from August. If it plays out as depicted into the end of the month it could be a real juicy short play.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 4:16:28 PM

Hmph .... Based on QQQQ close of $49.89, tomorrow's DAILY Pivot levels are ...

$48.70, $49.29, Piv= $49.78, $50.37, $50.86

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 4:13:32 PM

Let's set our QQQ-LY target at $0.80 in the options. Would look for a gap above WEEKLY S1, run to WEEKLY Pivot. Will check tomorrow's DAILY Pivot levels.

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 4:09:08 PM

It's a pretty good setup for a quick spike down at the open and we'll see if SPX 1450 holds for another rally leg (perhaps up to the 1470 area). The alternate scenario is that we're going to trade sideways inside today's range into the end of the week before continuing the decline.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 4:02:47 PM

Target(s) on the QQQ-LY are likely $0.40, or $0.90.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 4:00:06 PM

Actually, another would be a close above that volume spike's 5-minute close of $50.01.

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 3:59:46 PM

I say that because I have the same ones :-)

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:59:34 PM

About the only "test" I can have today is for QQQQ to close above $49.84 and 38.2% dynamic.

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 3:58:40 PM

You da man Jeff.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:58:20 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in QQQQ-like security.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:57:48 PM

Swing trade long alert ... for five (5) of the QQQQ Dec. $51 Calls (QQQ-LY) at the offer of $0.18.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:56:21 PM

QQQ-LY are $0.18.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:55:41 PM

QQQ-LX are $0.52 offer.

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 3:54:15 PM

Watch for SPX 1450 to be support for the start of the next leg up in the rally (tomorrow). Could start with another gap up tomorrow (knowing how this market operates). Lottery play anyone? Dec call option--it'll either work right away tomorrow (it's just a 1-day play) or die on the vine.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:54:11 PM

Wish I knew what was going on in NDX options.

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 3:52:55 PM

Well we were stopped on the YM long at 13304 or even a stop at 13298 didn't save us. AH gee!!

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:52:53 PM

What do you thing? Repeat of history?

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 3:48:26 PM

If the bulls don't keep this going right now then we could get the 2nd leg down in the pullback which would have it dropping just below the late afternoon low so keep your stops tight if you bought the break higher.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:47:11 PM

TRIN 0.78 ... NYSE A/D 2018/1172

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 3:46:43 PM

I almost posted a chart this morning, but it's not a regularly watched interval on a chart, so I didn't. It's a three-day Keltner chart, and the 120-ema on that three-day chart is now near 1434.50. One reason I was so diligently trying to get into a bull put spread the last couple of days is that this 120-ema has been support on a three-day close since the spring and early summer of 2003. The only exception was in August 2004, when there was a single three-day close just below this 120-ema.

That average has been tested many times, too, in August 2004, April 2005, October 2005, June and July 2006, and August and November of this year. It's been pierced, but there haven't been any further three-day closes beneath it. Today's 1435.65 low was only a little more than a point above that moving average. Don't read me wrong: I'm not suggesting that traders use this as a buy signal. Today is the first day of the current three-day candle, so we have two more days before we see whether that support will be maintained on a three-day close, but I thought there might be a bounce attempt from this level. I didn't "think" it strongly enough that I wanted to risk getting too close to the action with my bull put spreads, though. I kept my orders where they were, deciding that they'd either go or I'd miss the opportunity to capture that extra profit this month by getting into bull put spreads a second time, after closing out my first set. Things are just too iffy for me to want to take too many chances. So, of course, the bounce occurred and the order didn't go again today.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:42:51 PM

Assisted Living (ALC) $6.86 +3.31% ... announces expansion of stock repurchase program.

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 3:42:11 PM

No additional pullback. Jane could have the right idea here.

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 3:41:15 PM

Long at 13356 if your stop is 13304 then your target is 13408 or since it is late 13400.

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 3:39:31 PM

Now long YM at 13356 so let's put a stop at 13304 or if you are more conservative 13298. Put your target at a 1:1 ratio to your stop.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:39:26 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 3:37:13 PM

Ok it seems the DOW bears are not very strong today and we may get a late day rally so take YM long at 13356.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:29:44 PM

CBOE's NDX option Montage but doesn't have UpTick/DnTick measures Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:23:35 PM

With WEEKLY Pivot at 2096.90 ... that's the place to be looking for unusual action (2,100)

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 3:23:26 PM

I still like the setup for a long play if we can get another leg down for the pullback from the 2:30 high.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:22:35 PM

NDX's session low 1,999.59 so far today.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:21:38 PM

Jane! Do you seen anything unusual at NDX 2,100 strike?

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 3:19:37 PM

Next Keltner resistance on the SPX's 15-minute chart is now at 1458.36, but the stronger resistance is a bit higher, at 1463.01 and 1466.73 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:16:23 PM

Craaab apples ... can't get an option montage of NDX.

See what doesn't make sense in QQQQ montage?

VXN -4.94%, yet CBOE action shows much greater call selling and put buying bias.

Something's "up" in the NDX, or other month options.

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 3:15:40 PM

Looks like the bears may be coming back to town. I see a short at 13298 with a stop at 13342. Wide stop so if it is too much don't take the trade.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:14:14 PM

Or $NDXX now for QCharts.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:13:32 PM

Doesn't make sense does it? Better check the NDX

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:11:45 PM

QQQQ options montage Link

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 3:09:35 PM

If we get another leg down for the pullback the Fibs are lining up for potential support around the 38%-50% retracement (DOW 13179-13200, SPX 1448-1450). Watch for an opportunit to buy the pullback for another rally leg into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:09:28 PM

Oh my ... uptick/dntick vol on QQQQ. Up 4.7 Dn 2.7 ... looking at an option montage. Remember what we saw in DJX that night. $1 out the money from $129.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:04:07 PM

Crude Oil Pressured As Turkish Troops Leave Iraq

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 3:02:22 PM

GM Cuts Deal With UAW On Buyout Plan

GM $27.03 +2.42% ...

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 2:58:31 PM

The fact that the SPX was able to retrace all the way back to the 76.40% fib level should have all us bulls worried. I am also wondering if 1490 will come back into play and make the right shoulder of a Head and Shoulders. If so then November lows are probably history. Link

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 2:56:24 PM

Here is McMillan's commentary from last week. I think it is interesting because he also believes SPX's 1490 is no longer useful.

Extreme volatility -- especially on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, has left many investors and traders not only exhausted but disgusted. While gyrations such as these might be fun for short-term traders, others view them as obnoxious. Let's see if we can make some sense of what appears to be random activity at best and carnage at worst.

First of all, the previous support/resistance level at 1490 on $SPX has been obliterated and is no longer useful as a guideline. Second, the $SPX chart is clinging to some vestiges of bullishness: the 20-day moving average is rising, and there is support at 1465-1470, which has been tested three times now. From a longer-range perspective, though, $SPX appears to be in a broad and volatile trading range, from roughly 1410 to 1560 (using closing prices).

The equity-only put-call ratios rolled over to buy signals late last week and are still on those buy signals. The negative day on Tuesday put a little "wiggle" on the put-call ratios charts (above), but not enough to cause them to cancel out their recent buy signals. Since these are intermediate-term indicators, this is perhaps the most encouraging bullish sign at the present time.

Market breadth has weakened considerably and is now on a sell signal.

The volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have diverged a bit, but both are still in downtrends, and thus we are interpreting them as bullish. The 20-day moving average of $VIX is declining and is near 24. Also, $VIX spiked up to about 24 on Tuesday, before falling back. So, if $VIX closes above 24, that would be bearish. However, unless that happens, it is conducive to the bullish case.

In summary, the bullish case can still be made. In that vein, a close below 1460 would certainly usher in some panic selling. But, failing that, higher prices should evolve during this bullish seasonal period.

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 2:47:20 PM

I would expect a 38%-62% kind of pullback now but will be watching the form of it to try to identify where support might be found. I want to see if we get a good setup for another rally leg.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 2:45:58 PM

SIMILARITY? or DIVERGENCE?

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 2:45:41 PM

What did the internals look like on 11/27?

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 2:44:21 PM

The RUT is currently testing the same 15-minute Keltner channel line that it was last testing just before the FOMC announcement. The line, of course, is at a different location, being now at about 752.50 on 15-minute closes. In addition, RSI has reached a similar level as the pre-FOMC level. What does it mean? Maybe nothing. Keltner resistance can and does fail. RSI can and does trend above 70 on the 15-minute chart. However, it signals that, unless momentum is strong enough to trend RSI and break through resistance here and again just above 756, gains could slow or the RUT could even pull back. Those who want to see further gains want pullbacks to take it no deeper than about 745 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 2:43:39 PM

That DIA trade back on 11/27 came ABOVE WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 2:41:06 PM

QQQQ 15-minute interval chart, same time interval of DIA chart shown and observation from 11/27/07. Here's the QQQQ Link

Here's that DIA Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 2:34:59 PM

Yesterday's VIX.X high was MONTHLY Pivot. Still in a range ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 2:33:59 PM

VIX.X Alert! 22.41 ... WEEKLY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 2:25:13 PM

Next Keltner resistance above this is at 1463.66 and then again at 1467.55 on 15-minute closes. The SPX is at 1454.52 as I type.

Comparing today's advdec line action with Wednesday's, using Keltner channel lines as benchmarks, helped us determine when the line was acting as it did on Wednesday and when its action was diverging. That gave us a heads up that price action on equity indices might diverge, too. It warned that the bounce could get going.

The absolute levels weren't the same. The advdec line stabilized near +642 last Wednesday, while the analogous stabilization zone today for the lunchtime lull was at about -670. It was only by comparing the Keltner channels that we were able to see the similarities and the divergences. Nesting Bollinger bands might have provided similar comparisons of benchmarks, but since I use Keltner channels and not BB's, I can't be sure.

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 2:22:55 PM

We've got a nice impulsive 5-wave move to the upside that followed the 5-wave move down this morning. That indicates a trend change to up for now. Look for a pullback to correct today's rally and then another rally leg to follow that.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 2:19:19 PM

Hmmm ... 11/27 was a Tuesday also (DIA 2 million shares at $129).

Pivot traders have observed Tuesday's as being a "key day"

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 2:13:39 PM

For the DOW the key level for the bulls is the Dec 12th low at 13325 since a rally above that level would potentially break the bearish wave count (needs a rally above the Dec 13th high at 13525 to confirm that). In the meantime the bearish wave count calls for a consolidation (dark red triangle 4th wave is depicted as an idea) and then continuation lower. Notice the break of the downtrend line on RSI, a potentially bullish development today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 2:10:10 PM

C'mon "Granny Smith!"

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 2:08:31 PM

2.5 million shares traded in QQQQ from 13:42-44 at $50.03.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 2:07:44 PM

Good gravy! There's another one.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 2:01:30 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $71.00 -1.23% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 2:00:18 PM

US House Approves Final Passage of Major Energy Bill
Raises Fuel Economy Standards to 35 MPG by 2020.
Raises Biofuel Mandate To 36B Gallons By 2022.


Keene Little : 12/18/2007 1:58:23 PM

The downtrend line at SPX 1451 has held it back so far. We know where resistance is and obviously the bulls would like to see it break and then become support on a pullback.

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 1:54:51 PM

Yesterday I thought a long in Crude would be a good trade but it is now breaking back below $90.00 support and not looking bullish at all. Link

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 1:51:50 PM

AAPL trade update: it has done a nice recovery off its low and has now retraced 38% of its decline from Dec 14th (184.18). A rally back above the Dec 12th low at 185.77 would be potentially bullish since it could signify that the pullback from the 11th is just an A-B-C correction of its rally (unless it's building an even more bearish wave pattern).

I'm lowering the stop on my short play to 190.00 as any higher than that would look too bullish for me to want to be short any longer. For those who have followed along on the short trade that lower stop should get just about everyone to at least a breakeven trade.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 1:48:30 PM

SPX bulls do not want to see a quick rollover (or a slow one, for that matter, I guess) here or at the resistance now at 1453.42 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 1:42:47 PM

The SPX has potential resistance on 15-minute closes at 1453.58 and then again at 1464.83-1468.32.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 1:41:20 PM

I'd say there's now some divergence, on a Keltner basis, in today's action and Wednesday's on the advdec line. This bounce is getting bigger than Wednesday's bounce about the same time of day. This isn't a be-all and end-all indication that equities are going to rally all afternoon. Instead, now that you know there's some divergence, you can plan how you want to deal with a potential rally, if it keeps going. If you're in bearish trades, you'll have a firm plan for protecting any profits you might have accrued. (Never let a profit turn into a loss in this kind of market.) If you're in or are planning a bullish trade, you'll plan what signs you'll want to see to encourage you to stay in it.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 1:38:07 PM

TRIN 0.88

TRINQ 0.62

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 1:38:01 PM

Getting a nice bounce off the low now. SPX will hit resistance at its downtrend line from Dec 11th just above 1451 (getting there now). If we're going to get a 4th wave correction then it could make it higher and/or stretch out sideways/up for a day or so. A 38% retracement of the leg down from the 13th is at 1456.79 and is an upside target to keep in mind for now.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 1:37:52 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,472/1,449

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 1:37:39 PM

Just about squared up again ... NYSE a/d 1,567/1,562.

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 1:37:19 PM

It has been an excellent day for trading.

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 1:37:06 PM

The AD line started the day with a high of +1559, then fell to a low of -778. It has now climbing back above 0 to +191.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 1:37:03 PM

Times have changed when a 15-minute candle on the SPX's chart has a range of almost 8 points and it looks like just a regular-sized candle, nothing special. It wasn't so very long ago, although it seems in the distant past, that would have been a decent range for an entire day.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 1:35:48 PM

iShares Silver (SLV) $139.42 +1.66% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 1:35:14 PM

CDE $4.06 -0.49% ... it did ring the bell at $4.01 this morning.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 1:34:10 PM

Advdec line now at -38.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 1:31:41 PM

QQQQ $49.84 +0.22% ...

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 1:32:01 PM

I'll go further than Jeff in his 1:16:40 post: When I'm writing my books, I don't type as I type here! In addition to novels, I write educational workbooks on reading comprehension and math, and you can bet I know when to use the possessive "its" and the contraction "it's," but I can't seem to tell the difference when posting!

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 1:29:21 PM

The advdec line is now at -24, so it's getting close to where it should top out for now if it's going to continue to follow Wednesday's example. We shouldn't be too exact about our requirements about how far it goes at what time, but we should be exact enough to begin to see some divergences. If the advdec line gets too far above the zero level, we may be beginning to see some divergences.

It moved to +48 while I was typing.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 1:22:52 PM

DUG $40.49 -0.24% ... $41.00 wasn't much fun.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 1:22:16 PM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) $176.78 -0.03% ... stopped dead'r than a drill bit hitting granite at $175 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 1:16:40 PM

I don't talk like I type.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 1:16:24 PM

"have the right" ... not "got the right."

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 1:12:44 PM

NYSE and NASDAQ Internals Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 1:03:11 PM

I'm thinking even if SPG does fall to revised lower target of $86.20, the SPG-MQ might add another $1.00.

With MONTHLY S1 finding some buyers, why not sell $1.75 premium at $80 strike?

Worst that can happen is we do NOTHING, and stock goes on another rocket ride to MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 1:00:31 PM

SPG's point and figure chart at this Link

Needs a 3-box reversal higher before the bearish vertical count column is fully established.

See 12:11:11 chart. Currently, a 3-box reversal back higher would be to $91.00. See that MONTHLY 61.8%?

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 12:56:46 PM

RIO $31.38 +1.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 12:56:01 PM

Paid $1.69 for the QQQ-AX too.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 12:55:13 PM

What that does near-term is OBLIGATE us to BUY $80 - 1.75 = $78.25.

We've currently got the RIGHT to sell at $81.30 (see 12:15:26)

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 12:53:59 PM

The advdec line is stabilizing, as the Keltner outlook suggested it might, in the stabilization zone that is currently marked from -179 to -658. As it did Wednesday from about 10:45 to 1:15, it's rising within that zone during the lunchtime lull. (Note: the stabilization zone was at a different location Wednesday.) If Wednesday's pattern will continue to be followed, we shouldn't see the advdec line rise much above the zero line over the next 30-45 minutes or so, and then the advdec line should start declining again. That gives you something to watch to see when there might be similarities or divergences.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 12:53:26 PM

VIX 23.76 -3.09% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 12:53:03 PM

Swing trade sell covered put alert! ... let's sell one (1) of the Simon Property Group SPG Jan $80 Puts (SPG-MP) at the bid of $1.75.

SPG $88.37 -0.41% ...

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 12:47:49 PM

Short term it looks like we should get at least one more new low to finish today's decline and then look for a bigger bounce. The key level in the downside patterns for the indices changes today. The bearish wave count now requires any bounce stay below the low on Dec 13th (1469.21 as shown on the SPX chart). Any bounce back above that level would violate the EW rule that says a 4th wave correction cannot overlap the end of the 1st wave (wave i on the chart at the 12/13 low). Link

The chart looks a little messy at the moment while I consider several possibilities here. The bullish (green) wave count says today's decline finishes the A-B-C pullback and get set to rumble to the upside for the late-to-the-party Santa Claus rally (a break above 1469 would confirm that count). The pink count says we should get a 4th wave correction (wave iv) to perhaps the 1451 area and then continue lower. The dark red wave count shows a continuation right down to support at the March 2003 uptrend line near 1420 before we get a larger correction.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 12:34:56 PM

Hmmm ... just reading 12/4/07 MM ... might be a little early to be ;) ing.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 12:31:06 PM

QQQQ $49.44 -0.58% ... has retraced 80.9% of its ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 12:29:57 PM

AAPL $180.45 -2.14% ... retraced 38.2% ($179.17) of its recent 11/12 to 12/11 rise.

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 12:25:29 PM

The pattern for the decline from Dec 14th (for the indices and AAPL) looks like it's completing a 5-wave move (might not be quite finished to the downside yet) and that should set up at least a correction of it. The correction might be a sideways consolidation or we could start another stronger rally so pull your stops down a little tighter again.

The overnight run-up in the futures was obviously just a manipulation to get the market to gap up so they could sell into it. Those maneuvers continue to make it very difficult to stay short.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 12:21:51 PM

Advdec line: -642. That's right at the bottom of the potential stabilization zone that I mentioned earlier, the one in which the advdec line temporarily stabilized on Wednesday during the lunchtime lull, so watch for potential stabilization here (and a let up in the selling on equities) over the lunchtime period. A big bounce in the advdec line would be a divergence from Wednesday's pattern. A big decline would be a divergence, but only a divergence in timing. About 1:45 last Wednesday, the advdec line began falling again.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 12:21:11 PM

Remember too! We sold covered a RIO-XT on 11/27 at these very levels ($30.28)

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 12:19:56 PM

That China Tel is a wild one isn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 12:19:15 PM

Here's how we stood at last night's close; trade blotter Link

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 12:18:26 PM

So much for gap support at 179.81 for AAPL. Bummer :-)

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 12:17:47 PM

Yeah ... I thought about it, selling the Dec $85.

Then I thought about, and observe RIO $30.88 -0.57% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 12:15:26 PM

Paid $3.70 for the SPG $85 puts, so 85-3.70 = $81.30

Did sell covered a SPG-XP (Dec $80 Put) on 11/26 for $1.80, then bought it back for $0.25 on 11/30.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 12:12:11 PM

SPY $144.46 -0.42% ... not even close to its MONTHLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 12:11:11 PM

Simon Property (SPG) $88.21 -0.59% ... here's my 60-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement. Link

The upward trends were both taken from the 08/01/07 relative low.

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 12:08:28 PM

Obviously if the bulls can't get something going soon then it'll be one big lump of coal in their Christmas stocking this year. This year has been one of opposites where the typical calendar moves have been reversed.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 12:01:10 PM

We're lucky to have Jane always letting us know about the advdec line and other internals, because today's action has shown how important that can be. Here's the Keltner outlook: the advdec line has dropped straight to potential stabilization zone that I mentioned earlier. Last Wednesday, the advdec line stabilized in this zone during the lunchtime lull before falling further. The zone today is at -282 to -664, with the advdec line at -520 as I type. If today follows Wednesday's pattern, then, we might expect some stabilization to occur rather soon and to continue during the lunchtime lull, at which time we would then see if the pattern continued to follow last Wednesday's or if it diverged, giving us a heads-up that something is different today.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 12:00:28 PM

VIX's MONTHLY Pivot juuuust above at 24.58.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 11:59:50 AM

SPG probing its MONTHLY S1 $88.09.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 11:58:45 AM

VIX.X 24.04 -1.95% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 11:58:29 AM

SPG-MQ are $3.10 x $3.40.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 11:57:59 AM

Simon Property Group (SPG) alert! $88.11 -0.70% ... adjusted LOWER our bear target from this level of trade.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 11:57:00 AM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $198.75 -4.73% ... I added an "O" to $200.00.

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 11:56:47 AM

SPX has dropped to (and slightly below as I type) the trend line along the lows since Dec 11th. Watch for the possibilty for just a throw-under here. If the descending wedge pattern is correct then it's potentially very bullish. A break of this morning's high would be confirmation of a break out. But if the decline continues keep an eye on 1435 for potential support. Link

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 11:54:23 AM

Here are the charts of the cash markets' previous day ranges. As you can see the Russell 2000 ($RUT.X) is the only market to not break its previous day low. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 11:53:34 AM

QQQQ $49.55 -0.36% ... slips under its rising 150-day SMA ($49.63). Not a banker/broker/insurer in the bunch, but negative response to CNBC's comments regarding Goldman Sachs.

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 11:51:51 AM

The bulls needed to take back control today and so far they are just not doing it. Here are the charts of the overnight session, all markets have broken their overnight lows. Link

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 11:47:41 AM

Marginal new price lows in the indices continue to be met with bullish divergences which is signifying a loss of momentum in the selling. The trouble for the bulls though is that there doesn't seem to be any real interest in buying. It's hard to trust the downside at this point but obviously the bulls haven't shown enough strength to join them either. Chopping lower in an ending pattern could be in store for us today.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 11:39:03 AM

Advdec line now at 123.00. It continues to sink. Another potential stabilization zone is now located from -352 to -664. If the advdec line follows last Wednesday's example, it will temporarily stabilize in that zone during the lunchtime lull. We'll see. So far, the pattern continues to follow last Wednesday's, but keep a close watch on this as it's not guaranteed that it will continue to do so.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 11:34:45 AM

Here we go: equal low test coming up on the SPX. So far, on a Keltner 15-minute chart, the SPX actually looks a little stronger this morning than it did yesterday when this level was being tested, but we'll see if that matters. Potential Keltner support at 1440.70 and 1444.29 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 11:34:20 AM

CNBC guest Charles Gasparino of the Wall Street Journal saying one of his sources said Goldman Sachs (GS) just had a terrible month.

GS $200.41 -3.90% ... session lows now.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 11:28:44 AM

I just got filled and was able to close out my JAN RUT 870/880 bear call spread for $0.15. I closed out the bull put portion (590/580) in the pre-FOMC excitement. If you're in condors and are so inclined, you might look at whether you can close out some of your bear call spreads this morning for $0.10-0.15. If we get a huge relief rally in time, I intend to re-enter. If not, I've locked in my profit for that position and reduced my risk, with 30 days still left to expiration. It's your choice, and each of us will deal with this differently, but I happen to like reducing my risk in this crazy market. The deltas were really low on the sold 870 calls, and the probability that they would ever get hit was really low, but "really low" isn't zero.

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 11:29:15 AM

AAPL dropped to a new low this morning and has now reached a potentially critical point for its pattern. The move down from its Dec 11th high has now achieved two equal legs down (182.16) and hit the bottom of a parallel down-channel. As the bullish wave count shows, this could be the completion of an A-B-C pullback which will be followed by a new rally leg. The key level (and our stop on the put play) remains at 193.20 although a break of its downtrend line, currently near 190, would be a heads up that the bulls are back. Link

But the bulls need to prove themselves here and until they do I am looking for for a continuation lower as per the bearish wave count. The next support level is the gap close at 179.81 but we could first see a bounce to correct the leg down from the Dec 14th high.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 11:25:02 AM

Altria (MO) $75.81 -0.27% ... probes its rising 21-day SMA.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 11:24:30 AM

As a reminder, yesterday's SPX low was 1445.43. with the SPX at 1447.97 as I type, an equal low test may be approaching.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 11:22:31 AM

The advdec line is still dropping, just as it did last Wednesday, so there's still correspondence in its pattern. That's no guarantee that it will continue to do so. Another potential Keltner stabilization level, at just under +300, approaches. It's at 424 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 11:21:59 AM

There is NO better assessor of RISK than a free market based on capitalism.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 11:20:20 AM

RIO $31.71 +2.09% ... session high has been $32.45.

At $31.71, the RIO-XZ are $1.20 x $1.30.

Is it worth the RISK (of potentially having to exercise the RIO-MG $4.00 x $4.10.

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 11:19:15 AM

Linda mentioned that she uses the $TRAN as a leading indicator so I thought I would slap a fib retracement on it so I could compare it to the SPX and the DOW. As you can see $TRAN has retraced exactly 50% of the range from November lows to December highs. Link

And the SPX and DOW have retraced to their 61.80% levels, approximately . Link Link

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 11:15:39 AM

I'll tell you something else anecdotal that's keeping me watchful for a potential bounce. I noted that vulnerability to 1456-1457 in my posts last week. I said that I'd already used the pre-FOMC pop to exit the bull put portions of my January condors, locking in the majority of my profit, with the idea that if there was a drop after the FOMC meeting, I'd still have plenty of time to re-enter bull put spreads and fill out my condors again. I was using the knowledge that there was vulnerability to 1456-1457 to time when I would try to re-enter those bull put spreads. Well, that's exactly what I did yesterday. I kept putting in orders for JAN SPX bull put spreads yesterday at levels where I previously would have been able to get the order filled. They weren't touching those orders with 10-foot poles. Neither were they touching my orders to close out the bear call portions of my condors and lock in most of my profits for those. I admittedly was trying to get between the bid and the ask, but typically with the SPX bid for a bull put credit spread at $0.15 and the ask at $1.15, I would have been able to get filled for $0.50, which is what I was trying to do yesterday (1260/1250), and I never got filled on anything yesterday. I sometimes find that happens at turning points in the market or at least at moments that others think might be a turning point, too. It's just an anecdotal impression, but one that has me wary this morning. I'll be unhappy if the markets run away higher, and I didn't get another try at bull put spreads for Jan, but I've already collected profit once. I don't know about you, but in this climate, I don't want any higher than 1260/1250 if I can get it. Even then, I'm not filling out all my condors again, but instead am probably only doing about 20 contracts. My previous bull put spreads, the ones I've already closed out, were at 1185/1175, and I felt far more comfortable with them than I do with anything over 1200 in this climate.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 11:16:48 AM

NYSE and NASDAQ Comp. Internals at this Link

At yesterday's close, the NYSE's 5-day A/D ratio was 29% (column M) and I've highlighted it in dark red to depict a "sell signal" as it would violated the 11/21/07 relative low measure. Can see a decent reversal so far at 38%. Again, levels below 30% rather "oversold." TEST going forward is to see if buyers enought to carry not only a 3-box reversal back up (to 36%), but give a "buy signal" at 64% measure (above 62% from 12/3/07).

NYSE NH/NL observation is that 5-day NH/NL ratio still falling. Monitor that 10-day NH/NL ratio (column AF) as it is close to seeing a 3-box reversal back lower with a 34% measure (see inflection high from 12/12/07 of 40.1%, or 40.00% on PnF chart). A trader can begin to envision, or say "need a heck of a rally to keep it above 34%, when 5-day NH/NL is down at 22.8% at last night's close).

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 11:04:29 AM

I took a look at my preferred "leading indicator index," the TRAN. It's not leading anywhere. It's going sideways, with RSI on the 15-minute chart near 45, near the neutral 50 zone.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 11:02:05 AM

All I can tell you today is to remain on guard. I've noted the similarities in the advdec line today and Wednesday, but that doesn't mean they'll continue. Keep watching them. The SPX is getting pressed back toward yesterday's low, but it's doing it with small-bodied alternating green and red candles, and that looks like a choppy pullback that could still get reversed. The USDJPY is trending down today, but trending down within a congestion zone, so I don't know how much credence to give to it.

Don't believe too strongly in any one thesis today. Keep on your toes. Not all the signs look exactly right. It looks as if prices could just crater, but, if they don't, a relief rally could be massive. I'm not being wishy washy: this is absolutely the evidence the charts are giving. They're wishy washy.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 11:00:50 AM

On Friday, a CNBC guest was noting how the technicals of a stock usually lead, or tell investors about a stock's forward earnings.

GS was the stock of topic.

Guest analyst said he thought, based on observation, that GS was "topping out" technically, and that he thought earnings would be "blow out," but that this quarter's earnings probably near-term peak (based on stock's technical action last couple of months).

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 10:56:58 AM

Both the DAX and the USDJPY (the US$/YEN currency pair) are making new daily lows - this is bearish. VIX is making new daily highs - this is bearish. AD ratio is making new daily lows - this is bearish.

I totally missed this bearishness this morning and thought the bulls would rule today.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 10:56:32 AM

GOLDMAN SACHS 4Q NET CLIMBS 2.2%, TOPS ESTIMATES

DJ- Investment bank caps another record-breaking year with a 2.2% increase in net income to $3.22 billion, or $7.01 a share, as it benefits from bearish bets on housing, allowing it to avoid the subprime-related damages many rivals have seen. Net revenue jumps 14% to $10.74 billion. Wall Street expected earnings of $6.61 a share on revenue of $10.16 billion. However, return on equity, a key profit measure, drops to 34.6% from 41.5%.

GS $202.82 -2.78% ...

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 10:53:08 AM

The advdec line attempted to stabilize at the Keltner line I'd been mentioning earlier, but then couldn't maintain that support. This is not a development that bulls wanted to see. I've been warning since a few minutes after the open that the Keltner setup for the advdec line was similar to Wednesday's, a performance that bulls didn't want to see repeated. Here's the chart so you can see the setup: Link

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 10:51:02 AM

There's a possibility that we're going to see a sideways consolidation today where price moves sideways over to their downtrend lines. That would be a bearish setup for a continuation lower if it happens.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 10:49:57 AM

So far I'm seeing some of the "just above" option strikes holding morning resistance.

SPG $89.89 +1.29% ($90 strike)

RIO $31.85 ($32.50 strike)

WB $39.46 +0.07% ($40 Strike)

QQQQ $49.80 +0.14% ($50 strike)

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 10:48:35 AM

VIX and S&P futures are in sync but I am not in sync with them. I thought the VIX was bullish this morning but it is following the futures now and I need to get into sync with it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 10:45:32 AM

Wachovia (WB) $39.49 +0.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 10:44:52 AM

S&P CDO Ratings (update)

DJ- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said it cut 156 ratings on 36 U.S. collateralized debt obligations, which have been at the heart of steep write-downs at big banks and brokerage firms.

The downgraded tranches of the U.S. cash flow and hybrid CDOs were valued at $6.84 billion, the bond-ratings agency said. "All are from CDOs of asset-backed securities (ABS) collateralized by structured finance securities, including U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS)," S&P said.

S&P also affirmed its ratings on 82 tranches from CDOs. It said it left the ratings on 57 of the downgraded tranches on "CreditWatch negative," meaning there is a significant likelihood of further downgrades.

S&P also said it placed ratings on 63 tranches from 13 other CDOs on "CreditWatch with negative implications."

CDOs, which use sliced-and-diced assets such as subprime-mortgage bonds to create customized products offering various levels of risk, have been at the heart of steep write-downs at big banks and brokerage firms. S&P, along with Fitch Rating, a unit of Fimalac SA, and Moody's Corp.'s (MCO) Moody's Investors Service, have been reviewing how they rate securities such as CDOs and mortgage bonds to better incorporate what has been an unprecedented decline in the value of mortgages - especially those originated during the housing boom when lending standards were loose.

Last month, S&P, a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos. (MHP), lowered its ratings on 46 tranches from nine CDOs. The downgraded tranches were valued at $1.92 billion.

So far in 2007, S&P has lowered its ratings on 991 tranches from 333 CDO transactions due to "stress in the residential mortgage market and credit deterioration" of U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities.

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 10:41:37 AM

This new low now gives us an impulsive 5-wave move down which means we may have seen the high for the day with that quick spike up.

Jeff Bailey : 12/18/2007 10:41:17 AM

S&P Cuts Ratings On Another $6.84B of CDOs

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 10:24:11 AM

Jane has a great grasp of the advdec line and how that relates to equity trading, so I'm certainly not trying to usurp her commentary. I employ Keltner lines, however, and I wanted to also give you a Keltner perspective. For example, how else would we have known to watch for a potential stabilization in the 850-900 zone? Keltners gave me that information, and this is part of their great value to me. Equity bulls want to see that stabilization and then another bounce. Bears want to see that potential support fail.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 10:21:46 AM

The SPX reversed right back below that Keltner lie now at about 1451.75. It's rising to test it again as I type. Mixed signals have predominated all day, and they continue. This isn't the early result bulls wanted to see--especially the diving of the advdec line, mimicking last Wednesday's early performance, at least--but it's still not definitive. For example, the USDJPY still trends down, but some stabilization may be occuring near 113.14. It's at 113.21 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 10:18:55 AM

Big drop in the advdec line. It's at 903 and at the (now slightly higher) Keltner line that I mentioned in my 9:42:45 post, when I warned that the advdec line might be setting up much as it did last Wednesday. This is not what bulls want to see, of course, and is what bears want to see. The advdec line is at 876 as I type, with some stabilization at the Keltner line that's now risen to about 900. Bulls want to see this support held on 15-minute closes.

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 10:16:31 AM

SPX is now approaching the 1449-1450 area I thought could set up the next rally leg up to resistance at 1460. Buy it if it holds (just beware those sharp falling knives).

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 10:10:08 AM

If I were to look only at the SPX and VIX, and I were bullish, I'd be pretty encouraged this morning over the short-term anyway. Add in the RUT (up, but not yet closing above first Keltner resistance) and the USDJPY (still in its congestion zone, so mostly neutral, but trending down since 6:15 am EST, which is short-term bearish), and the outlook grows cloudier.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 10:05:06 AM

I just took a look at the RUT. It has not closed a 15-minute period above the Keltner resistance that's analogous to the resistance the SPX just bested. That resistance is just a touch under 746 on the RUT, with the RUT now at 745.52 as I type. We need to see the RUT participate by breaking above this Keltner resistance, too.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 10:02:05 AM

The SPX closed the last 15-minute period above first Keltner resistance now at 1453.23. This was the first time it's closed above that resistance since Friday's close, so that's a small change in the bull's favor. Now they want to see continued 15-minute closes above that resistance and of course a break to a new day's high. The advdec line is pulling back, but not strongly. The USDJPY is attempting a bounce from Keltner suport at 113.15, with the USDJPY at 113.24 as I type.

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 9:53:41 AM

This morning's big gap up just stopped and is now more or less stalled. If we're to get a clean 3-wave bounce up to SPX 1460 then we could see a pullback to about 1449 that sets up another equal up to 1460. A pullback to the 1449 area would also be a 62% retracement of this morning's spike up. It would make for a good long play from there if it happens.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 9:50:26 AM

The USDJPY is now at 113.15.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 9:48:42 AM

The SPX resistance mentioned in my 9:38:44 post held on the first 15-minute close. That first 15-minute close was at 1453.98. The SPX is above that resistance now (now located near 1453.50) with further resistance at 1456.86 and then at 1461.50. The outcome may not be determined yet. The advdec line continues to hold up pretty well on a Keltner basis. The USDJPY is at 113.20 as I type, still sinking off the day's high established before our markets opened. So, right now, some signs go to the bears and some to the bulls.

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 9:47:18 AM

S&P futures make new daily lows but the VIX does not make new daily highs so don't expect much follow through.

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 9:46:21 AM

USDJPY is making new daily lows so not is everything bullish this morning.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 9:42:45 AM

Currently, the Keltner look at the advdec line shows it setting up much as it did last Wednesday morning, breaking out above the upper Keltner channel. Last Wednesday, the advdec line then sank the rest of the day. Today, then, equity bears want to see that performance repeated, while equity bulls would instead prefer 15-minute remain in breakout mode. Right now, that requires 15-minute closes above about 850 on my version of the advdec line. That will change as the day goes on. Right now, my version of the advdec line is at 1572. Whatever version of the advdec line you have, you just don't want to see it continue to sink all day if you're long equities, and you do if you're in bearish positions. It's going to be natural to see some pullback, but not a continued sinking all day.

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 9:39:52 AM

VIX is hovering at daily lows supporting the bullish AD line.

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 9:39:18 AM

AD line is a bullish +1533.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 9:38:44 AM

The SPX has potential resistance on 15-minute closes (haven't had a close yet) just under 1454 and then again at 1457. Bulls of course want to see that resistance breached on a 15-minute close; bears don't. We don't know yet which will happen.

Linda Piazza : 12/18/2007 9:36:54 AM

The USDJPY appears to be carving out a congestion zone at the top of its rise since the FOMC meeting. Overnight, it climbed back to--exceeding by a few cents--yesterday's high. It's at 113.29 as I type, below this morning's 113.49 high. The bottom of the congestion zone is at about 112.80, above the 112.60-ish support zone. Its correspondence with U.S. equity action hasn't been strong over the last few trading days, so I'm thinking that we'll have to see that congestion zone broken one direction or the other before we see much reliable correspondence again, if we do.

Remember that it's possible for inter-market relationships to shift, depending on predominant worries in the markets. The correspondence of the USDJPY's action with that of U.S. equities depends to some degree on whether any borrowed yen would be put to work buying U.S. equities. What if the opinion of global big money investors is that the U.S. equities aren't going to see the kind of gains that they've seen since 2003? Would it make sense then to invest borrowed yen--for which one does have to pay interest, if a relatively small interest--in equities, if equities are no longer going to escalate at a faster rate than the interest that must be paid?

Keene Little : 12/18/2007 9:25:32 AM

The rally in equity futures will give us a big gap open (shock and surprise) so we could see the downtrend lines from Dec 11th tested sooner rather than later. Look to short the bounce at resistance but then buy it if it breaks the downtrend line and especially on a successful retest. For SPX the downtrend line is at 1460 which happens to be the the Dec 4th low and potential resistance as well. That could be a tough wall for the bulls to break through.

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 9:25:16 AM

US$ is still bullish and why I closed my long position in Gold yesterday. Gold can rally when crude is bullish but for only so long and then it succumbs to the weight of the $. Link

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 9:22:11 AM

And just like clockwork Crude is bouncing off $90.00 and the reason Gold rallying as well. Link

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 9:17:58 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Chain-store sales for the week ended Dec. 15 rose 2.1% from the year-ago period, according to a survey released Tuesday by the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS Securities. On a week-over-week basis, sales increased 1.4%. "Retailers were battered by several forces this past week, including storms and a procrastinating consumer," said Michael Niemira, ICSC's chief economist. "Consumers are completing their holiday shopping slower than they have in the last four years." ICSC still forecasts retailers' sales in December to rise 1.5%, hurt by a calendar shift.

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 9:17:30 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- New construction of single-family homes slowed to the weakest pace in 16 years in November as U.S. home builders scrambled to reduce their inventories of unsold homes, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Starts of single-family homes fell 5.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 829,000, the lowest since April 1991. Total starts, including the 0.6% rise for multifamily units, fell 3.7% to an annual rate of 1.19 million, the government said.

Total starts at 1.19 million were stronger than the 1.17 million pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

Total starts are down 24% in the past year, while starts of single-family homes are down 35%. Starts have fallen in four of the past five months.

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 9:14:33 AM

Wouldn't you just know it, Gold is in rally mode and I closed my long Gold position yesterday. Anyway based on the information I had yesterday I think it was good move. Link

Jane Fox : 12/18/2007 9:12:37 AM

Higher highs and lows tell me the bulls have had control during the overnight session. No market broke its previous day highs but there is a good chance at least one will intraday. The have not been real easy to trade of late, although these charts look like it was a piece of cake, it was a very choppy move. Link

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