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Keene Little : 1/1/2008 11:59:37 PM

Welcome back and a Happy New Year to everyone.

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

If the DOW can rally immediately on Wednesday it will be able to maintain its uptrend from Nov 26th and if it can rally through its downtrend line from October, currently near 13600, then there are some upside Fib targets just above 13700 and then 14K. But if continues lower, especially below 13092 (Dec 18 low), then it could continue on down to 12800 before finding support. Daily chart: Link

Like the SPX daily chart that I showed last week, it will be interesting to see what the market is doing into a potentially important turn date on Jan 10th: Link . If the market rallies over the next week I see an upside Fib target at 1528 but if it declines then the downside target is the uptrend line from March 2003 near 1425 (nice little 100-pt spread there).

The pattern on the COMP still leaves just as many questions as the DOW and SPX but a rally above the Dec 26th high near 2727 could carry some to the upside. Otherwise the bearish wave count calls for the start of a stronger decline in a 3rd wave. Link

The RUT also has a few possibilities from here, none of which could be argued strongly over another. A continuation higher could see a push up to the 820 area while a decline below 735 could usher in some very strong selling. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/1/2008 10:10:32 PM

Had somebody told me on December 31, 2006 that oil prices would surge an additional 45% in 2007 and regional banks would fall 32%, but the S&P 500 would rise 3.5%, I wouldn't have believed it.

New Year's Resolution(s): Forget what you believe. Trade what you observe.

Jeff Bailey : 1/1/2008 10:05:20 PM

12/31/07 Closing U.S. Market Watch Link

S&P 500 (SPX.X) up 3.52% for 2007 (excluding dividends).

OI Technical Staff : 1/1/2008 9:59:59 PM

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