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Keene Little : 1/2/2008 11:01:57 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

If the DOW drops a little further on Thursday I see potential support at a Fib projection at 12874 and then the uptrend line from August near 12800. The choppy price patterns continue for all of them so a rally to completely retrace Wednesday's decline is also possible from here. Daily chart: Link

The uptrend line from March 2003 for SPX near 1425 is not far away now. If we consolidate near the lows then another leg down is likely. Otherwise a rally back above 1470 would be at least short term bullish. 60-min chart: Link

The COMP and RUT look very similar as SPX and could press a little lower before at least a bigger bounce, or start to rally right back up to retrace Wednesday's declines. 60-min charts:
COMP: Link
RUT: Link

OI Technical Staff : 1/2/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 5:10:09 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

CLOSED out (bought back) the SPG-MP for $1.10 as SPG was trading $86.21.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 4:05:31 PM

Economic reports for tomorrow. It is Thursday tomorrow - correct?

7:00a.m. MBA Mortgage Application Survey. Previous: -8.5%.

8:15a.m. ADP/Macroeconomic Advisors Employment Estimate. Expected: +30K. Previous: +189K.

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Dec 29 Week. Expected: -4K. Previous: +1K.

10:00a.m. Nov Factory Orders. Expected: +0.4%. Previous: +0.5%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 3:55:59 PM

VIX.X 23.45 +4.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 3:50:48 PM

Swing trade covered put buy back alert! ... Let's buy back the one (1) Simon Property Group SPG Jan $80 Put (SPG-MP) at the offer of $1.10.

SPG $86.21 -0.74% ...

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 3:46:01 PM

This chart is making me a little green around the gills. I was long Gold a couple of weeks ago but closed the position based on what I thought the US$ would do. Link Here is the US$ Link

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 3:44:01 PM

Pretty impressive.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 3:43:47 PM

Finally have my NYMEX data back. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 3:42:28 PM

I guess there's two (2) trades of the year. For every buyer there's got to be a seller. Each with a ticket for $100.00.

Something to show the grandchildren for sure.

Steve Farber ... wherever you are, oil has traded $100.00!

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 3:40:05 PM

Nymex Crude Trades $100 Official Nymex Crude Futures review at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 3:35:23 PM

The bearish SPX head and shoulder pattern has not yet confirmed. Link

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 3:33:47 PM

The DOW head and shoulders pattern suggests the DOW will fall to about 12400.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 3:32:04 PM

The DOW's head and shoulders pattern has now confirmed, at least according to me to because I like to draw my neckline at lowest point of the pattern (magenta line) whereas some technicians will draw the neckline from the left shoulder to the neckline (blue trendline). Link

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 3:32:00 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1448.01. Bullish price/RSI divergence showed up at the just-touched new low of the day. That's a warning to prepare for a potential bounce, but not a promise of a bounce attempt, as I said earlier in reference to the USDJPY. The USDJPY is at 109.37, not having mounted much of a bounce.

It's time for those who jumped into a bearish SPX trade today to make a decision about whether they'll hold overnight. The Japanese markets will be open tonight for the first time since taking off for the New Year's holiday, so the USDJPY might move. Which direction, I don't know, so assess your risk and make your decision and then implement it.

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 3:28:23 PM

The big question here is whether or not we'll see one of those extra special jam jobs where they ramp the market up a couple hundred points in the last half hour. So far the bounce looks very wimpy (that's a technical term).

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 3:26:43 PM

Newspaper headlines showing DOW dropping below 13K on the first trading day of the new year wouldn't exactly inspire bullishness in traders.

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 3:25:43 PM

The bulls are working hard on defending DOW 13K.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 3:18:08 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1447.80, with the SPX at 1444.02 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 3:09:04 PM

YM 13,059 ... new low of the day.

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 3:03:13 PM

Back down for what could be a retest of the day's low and so far if it's a successful retest it will leave more bullish divergences.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 2:49:01 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 2:42:04 PM

And I have no Crude Oil charts.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 2:41:42 PM

The SPX's resistance at the breakdown benchmark has so far held at the first test. Bears need a new low to confirm that. In the interim, they need 15-minute closes beneath the 15-minute 9-ema again, with that now at about 1450.90. The SPX is at 1449.23 as I type.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 2:41:14 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures hit the $100 mark Wednesday, surging more than $4 a barrel on expectations that U.S. crude inventories fell for a seventh consecutive week and on concerns that violence in Nigeria may cut output from Africa's biggest oil producer.

Crude for February delivery rallied $4.02 to $100 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in early afternoon trading. With energy futures trading broadly higher, the benchmark crude contract was last up $3.52, or 3.7%, at $99.50 a barrel.

"This is a bullish extravaganza," said Phil Flynn, vice president of futures brokerage Alaron Trading. "The market wants to believe that everything is bullish."

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 2:41:08 PM

CNBC reporting that indeed, there was one (1) trader than did pay $100.00/barrel of oil today.

That could be this year's "Trade of the Year."

For $100.00, that ticket may someday bring thousands, if not millions at auction.

Might rival Dow 10,000

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 2:28:12 PM

SPX has stalled at its broken uptrend line from Nov 26, now near 1454.60. Obviously the bulls want to see this trend line recaptured while the bears would like to see a bearish kiss goodbye here.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 2:22:41 PM

The SPX's breakdown benchmark is now at 1458.82, so a move above that on a 15-minute close would erase the breakdown status. Until then, however, that benchmark should be presumed to be likely short-term resistance on 15-minute closes. The USDJPY is trying to play catch up a little, but its bounce is still far from as exuberant as the SPX's on a Keltner basis, so I'm not sure what to make of this action yet. Just honor your profit-protecting plan.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 2:20:13 PM

This SPX bounce of course got bigger than bears wanted it to get. I warned earlier today that the release of the FOMC minutes could change the pattern of the USDJPY pair, thus impacting U.S. equities, but it honestly hasn't made much of a difference in the currencies. The USDJPY is now at 109.50, so it's bounced some off its day's low, but on a Keltner standpoint, it's not doing nearly what the SPX is doing. Are SPX traders a bit overzealous here in bouncing the SPX so hard? I don't know yet, but such speculations absolutely should not encourage you to stay in a bearish trade if your profit-protecting stop has been hit.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 2:19:38 PM

VIX.X 23.06 +2.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 2:19:16 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in SIL.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 2:18:59 PM

Swing trade call option alert! ... for two (2) of the Apex Silver Mines SIL Feb. $15 Calls (SIL-BC) at the offer of $1.45. No stop for now, target $19.00 in the underlying.

AMEX:SIL $15.50 +1.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 2:06:00 PM

FOMC 12/12/2006 Minutes at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 2:04:34 PM

FOMC 12/11/2007 Minutes at this Link

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 1:55:26 PM

SPX and NDX have broken the string of lower highs today and the DOW is not far behind. So that could be our signal that the bottom is in, at least for now. I still harbor thoughts of today being a bear trap that will either be sprung this afternoon or in an overnight jam of the futures to the upside. I'd be very cautious about being short overnight. Today's market internals are not fully supporting today's decline (such as the NYSE adv-decl line and new highs vs. new lows).

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 1:41:13 PM

With the SPX now at 1447.70, the 15-minute 9-ema is now at about 1449.05. Bears would like to see 15-minute closes beneath that, but it would not be unusual to see the SPX rise into a test of the other side of its smallest channel, with that channel now at 1452.69. We're now moving into a stop-running time of day, the RSI is finally picking up above 30 again and we just don't know what's going to happen as big money tests the waters and sees if any bounce is greeted with renewed selling. Just honor your profit-protecting plan, whatever it was. Unless you're psychic, that's all you can do. If you're stopped out of a bearish play with a chunk of your profit and then the thing turns around and rolls over and you could have made more, oh well! If you don't maintain good account-management practices, you're going to lose lots of money sometime or another, so it's better to miss part of a move than it is to hang on for dear life on a rocket going the wrong direction.

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 1:14:03 PM

There's a Fib projection at DOW 13007 for two equal legs down from Dec 26th and of course 13K could be psychological support. The bears are clearly ruling though.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 1:12:42 PM

Monday's volumes at both the NYSE and NASDAQ looked "heavy" considering 1/2-day session.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 1:12:35 PM

The USDJPY is now at 109.37, not having been successful in springing back above 109.50. Some bullish value/RSI divergences are now showing up on the 15-minute chart, however, warning us to be watchful for a bounce in this currency pair but not guaranteeing one by any means.

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 1:09:23 PM

So far price action is bearish in that it looks like a consolidation near the lows so new lows are entirely possible (dropping as I type). The bullish divergences indicate a slowing in the selling momentum so it's getting riskier for shorts here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 1:09:06 PM

NASDAQ may depict some "tax gain selling" as NH slightly below Monday's, but looks on target.

Today's NL of 171 less than than Monday's and may suggest bulk of "tax loss selling" completed.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 1:07:26 PM

NYSE may depict some futher "tax loss sell" carrying over, but today's NL look on target with Monday's. NH's a bit surprising and stronger than I would have thought.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 1:06:06 PM

NASDAQ NH/NL 55:171. Last day of 2007 was 55:171.

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 1:06:04 PM

Lots of short term bullish divergences on the charts now so there is the potential for an afternoon reversal of this morning's decline. I'm just not sure if we've seen the final low for today's decline yet. Short term downtrend lines are breaking though so it's definitely possible we've seen the low for now.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 1:05:36 PM

NYSE NH/NL 52:206. Last day of 2007 was 37:264.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 12:54:41 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1451.38 with the SPX at 1446.94 as I type. The upper channel line that's sometimes tested during the lunchtime lull on declining days is now at 1455.50. (Remember that these lines are dynamic and will change a little in the direction of SPX movement.) Bears would prefer that upper channel line not be tested, but decide now if you want to weather a test of that Keltner line to see if holds as resistance, as that sometimes happens during the lunchtime lull even if the decline is going to resume from that or some other point. You just won't know until the test concludes, if it occurs. Bears would rather a drop to a new low instead.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 12:51:33 PM

Here are the previous day charts. This is not looking to bullish is it? Link

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 12:50:12 PM

VIX has been telling you all day to stay short. Link

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 12:46:14 PM

Certainly looks like the bears are winning this battle. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 12:44:25 PM

HEARD ON THE STREET ... General Re Trial May Put Buffett On Hot Seat - While the billionaire hasn't been charged with any wrongdoing, the Jan. 7 criminal trial of four former General Re executives could be as much about Buffett as it will be about a reinsurance transaction that prosecutors say was a fraud.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 12:42:37 PM

The USDJPY is now at 109.40, slipping below the 109.50 support that had been holding since about 9:45. The last 15-minute candle, the one that finally slipped below that support, shows a spring up from its low value, though, so I'm not sure if the USDJPY has lost this support more than temporarily. It looks as if it wants to spring right back up to test it again . . . and, yes, it scrambled back to 109.48 as I typed. Test going on now.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 12:42:00 PM


DJ- Armed militants attacked targets in Nigeria's main oil industry center of Port Harcourt yesterday, leaving 13 people dead, a military spokesman says. The Niger Delta Vigilante Movement, led by militia leader Ateke Tom, claims responsibility.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 12:37:22 PM

I would have to question it too. If my math is correct, and I believe it very close, it would take a trade at USO $79.33.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 12:35:37 PM

CNBC ... reporter now questioning trade at $100.00/barrel.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 12:34:17 PM

CNBC reporting that spot Crude Oil has traded $100.00/barrel.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 12:32:18 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema has now descended to 1453.54 with the SPX at 1446.40 as I type. So far, there's been no flattening of the descent, but be aware that a relief bounce could occur at any time. An average that I consider important on daily closes--the 72-ema--is at 1439.92.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 12:24:35 PM

DJ- Survey Reveals Nuclear Terrorism is America's Top Fear

DJ (partial) - The Saga Foundation today announced the results of a survey which revealed the top fear of Americans is nuclear terrorism. An overwhelming 74 percent of Americans believe that a successful terrorist attack on U.S. soil is likely to happen. Half (49 percent) believe an attack will include some sort of a nuclear device.

Those stark findings were revealed by a nationwide survey and in a series of focus group sessions conducted for the Saga Foundation by Luntz, Maslansky Strategic Research. The fear of another "successful terrorist attack" scares more Americans (35 percent) than anything else, including threats of an economic recession, global warming, natural disaster and a disease pandemic. In fact, nearly 50 percent of Americans fear al Qaeda acquiring a nuclear bomb more than they fear states that already have the bomb, including potential rogue nations with nuclear ambitions such as North Korea and Iran.

The survey found that nearly three out of every five Americans are convinced al Qaeda will acquire a nuclear weapon in the next decade. If that is the case, 73 percent say that al Qaeda terrorist cells would target its stated enemy, the United States of America.

Ironically, successful post-9/11 prevention has not increased the nation's comfort level. Of the respondents, 56 percent in the Saga Foundation survey said they believe America is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the next terrorist attack. That concern was echoed by the vice chairman of the 9/11 Commission, former Democratic House member, and Saga Foundation research contributor - Lee Hamilton, who stated: "Keep in mind, that there isn't any doubt here about the intention of the terrorists. They've made it very clear; they want to get hold of a nuclear weapon. So this is not an idle threat, it's a very serious one."

Saga Foundation President, David Bartoshuk, concurs, "The findings are clear. Americans - Republicans and Democrats - agree on at least one thing: terrorists are not going to differentiate between political parties. Both red and blue states are in the terrorists crosshairs. When exploring the possibility of another 9/11 - or perhaps, something much more horrific involving crude nuclear bombs - it is not a question of 'if,' but 'when,' in the mind of a terrorist."

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 12:20:23 PM

AAPL may have finished its rally at the high on Dec 27th but the decline since that high looks more corrective than impulsive. So watch the uptrend line from November, currently near 189, for support if it drops further. Link

It's possible we'll see 3-wave move up from the Dec 18 low as part of the ending diagonal 5th wave up from the November low and that interpretation calls for another leg up after the current pullback finishes (shown in green with an upside projection around 215). But a break below 189 would likely mean the high for AAPL is in and it will have a long decline in front of it.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 12:20:17 PM

For you OEX traders, the OEX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 678.89 with the OEX at 676.09 as I type. The same advice goes out to OEX bears as to SPX ones: you should be in profit-protecting mode now. Follow the OEX lower with your stops and don't let your profits turn into losses.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 12:17:47 PM


DJ- Bernstein trims 4Q and 2008 estimates on Citi, Bank of America, JPMorgan and Wachovia, citing 'write-downs, loan-loss reserve building' and fewer buybacks. Firm sees 4Q write-downs of $5.5 billion for Bank of America and $12 billion for Citi.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 12:16:33 PM

VIX.X 23.78 +5.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 12:16:21 PM

Kohls (KSS) $45.17 -1.37% ... KSS-BJ are $0.85 x $0.95.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 12:16:17 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1455.36. If you've been in a bearish trade all day today, keep profit-protection uppermost in your mind as the SPX drops further. The SPX is at 1448.62 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 12:15:33 PM


DJ- U.S. chain store sales fall 0.7% in the first four weeks of December versus the previous month, according to Redbook Research, which expected a 0.8% drop. Separately, ICSC-UBS sales index slips 0.2% in the week ended Dec. 29.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 12:14:17 PM


DJ- Banc of America cautions on the chip sector, saying a cyclical recovery that began early last year 'has run its course.' Advanced Micro, LSI, National Semi, Analog Devices, Intel, Power Integrations, Semtech and Texas Instruments all fall on downgrades.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 12:13:26 PM


DJ- Shares slide 7% after YRC says it expects to incur 4Q impairment charges totaling $650 million to $750 million, mainly related to a decline in the value of its 2005 acquisition of USF.

YRCW $15.80 -7.54% ...

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 12:13:20 PM

The DOW's pattern for today's decline is taking on a bit of a descending wedge look to it and the bullish divergences at the new lows supports the bullish interpretation of this pattern. I suspect we're either nearing a tradeable low or else it's going to really let go to the downside. I'm leaning towards the tradeable bottom.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 12:12:10 PM


DJ- Pakistan's elections will be delayed until Feb. 18 because of unrest following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, authorities say, and opponents condemn the postponement but say they will take part.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 12:11:25 PM


DJ- Mortgage originator blames the collapse of the $1.7 billion deal on Blackstone's inability to come up with the needed funding, adding that the private-equity group owes it a $50 million break-up fee.

PHH $17.44 -1.13% ...

BX $21.58 -2.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 12:09:45 PM


DJ- Ruling could force Qualcomm to pay royalties for the next 13 months to keep selling chips for cellphones that infringe Broadcom patents.

BRCM $26.52 +1.45% ...

QCOM $38.66 -1.72% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 12:08:14 PM


DJ- Crude oil futures surge to $99 a barrel, before retreating slightly, after militants launched attacks in a leading Nigerian oil-producing city and analysts forecast another drawdown in U.S. crude oil inventories.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 12:03:17 PM

The USDJPY is now at 109.64, consolidating just above 109.50 for the last hour.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 11:58:49 AM

Weight Watchers (WTW) $44.19 -2.19% Link ... not necessarily as "seasonal" as one might believe.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 11:48:50 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema has now descended to 1458.07. So far, there's been no abatement of the selling, but the lunchtime lull will soon be upon us. That's often a time when the prevailing trend slackens, the 9-ema flattens, and prices trade across it for the first time since early in the morning. They sometimes cross all the way to the opposite side of the smallest Keltner channel during the lunchtime lull, and it's only when that test occurs that anything is determined about the afternoon's direction. That channel line is currently at about 1461.40, and bears would really prefer that the SPX not bounce that far. The SPX is at 1448.90 as I type.

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 11:44:45 AM

The wave pattern can satisfactorily be called complete for today's decline (the 5th wave could extend lower though). Tighten up your stop if short and consider trying a long play now (relatively tight stop).

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 11:34:25 AM

At tomorrow's close, will get a read on "Santa Claus Rally" or "Failure to Show" ... SPX 1,452.60 -1.07% ... looking like a "no show" at this point.

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 11:33:52 AM

From a very short term perspective the price pattern would look potentially complete to the downside with another minor new low. That could have the DOW testing its Dec 18th 13092 low.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 11:33:34 AM

Russell 2000 (RUT.X) 753.22 -1.67% ... paces broader market declines. May confirm my "Moderate Recession in 2008" forecast.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 11:32:51 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1458.79. If there's a bounce, bears want to see 15-minute closes at or below that moving average. They would prefer not to see a bounce, but instead any breather in the selling to occur on a sideways movement that allows the 9-ema to catch up and then a new downturn. The SPX is at 1452.84 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 11:32:00 AM

Small Cap Most Actives @ 11:00 AM EST at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 11:26:54 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $84.57 +2.55% ... (~$845.70 spot)

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 11:26:08 AM

Spot Gold At Record High On Strong Oil, Weaker US Dollar

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 11:25:34 AM

Comex Feb Gold Breaks $855 Life-Of-Contract High

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 11:22:24 AM

Techs are really starting to lose it here so that keeps the market bearish for now.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 11:21:11 AM

The SPX has now moved into that target zone that I mentioned earlier this morning. Remember that the Keltner setup shows this also to be potential support on a daily close. Other charts show lower targets. The idea now is that you protect your bearish profits and don't let them turn into losses. The Keltner target allowed you to formulate a profit-protecting plan for a test of this zone well in advance.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 11:20:13 AM

VIX.X 23.29 +3.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 11:20:00 AM

SPG-MQ are $3.00 x $3.30.

SPG-MP are $1.30 x $1.45.

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 11:19:23 AM

SPX is now approaching its uptrend line from Nov 26th, just below 1454, and there are hints of bullish divergence so tighten up stops if you're short and watch for an opportunity to try a long play if support holds (be careful of the falling knives).

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 11:19:06 AM

Simon Property Group (SPG) Alert! $85.00 -2.14% ... trades the $85.00 strike.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 11:13:31 AM

Markets consolidating at daily lows tells me they will resolve lower. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 11:11:43 AM

10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX.X) down 10.9 bp at 3.926% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 11:11:08 AM

Newfoundland's 3-Mos T-Bills Avg. Yield Falls to 3.89%

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 11:10:28 AM

Here is the chart of USO, the ETF I use to trade Crude. I like this one because it has options whereas GLD (the Gold ETF) does not. I am long USO with an April call. Link

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 11:08:35 AM

Here is a chart of the Gold e-mini and as you can see it is to new yearly highs. AH Gee and I bailed on my Gold long weeks ago. Link

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 11:03:27 AM

If SPX continues sliding down the bottom of its parallel down-channel from Dec 26th, watch for support (or not) at its uptrend line from Nov 26th, currently near 1454. If the pullback from Dec 26th is wave B of an A-B-C bounce off the Dec 18th low then we'll be due a big rally, potentially up to 1516 as shown in dark red: Link . If it continues lower then a decline to the 1425 area could be next (light green).

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 11:01:00 AM

Bear Stearns Director Novelly Sells $4.34 Million In Stock

BSC $86.00 -2.54% ...

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 10:59:11 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema has now dropped to 1463.50. If there's a bounce, SPX bears want 15-minute closes to be beneath that average. The SPX is at 1457.36 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 10:53:31 AM

Wachovia (WB) $37.45 -1.52% ... (see also 10:49:15) ... One of my "Top 5" losers for 2008.

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 10:50:20 AM

After holding up better it looks like the techs (NDX/NQ) are doing a little catching up on the downside as the DOW and SPX consolidate (which currently looks like a bearish consolidation).

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 10:49:15 AM

Money Flow Table at this Link

Should still be seeing some "tax gain/loss" selling next few days. Usually see more "tax gain" than loss early in the year. Don't have to pay capital gain until April 15, 2009.

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 10:42:18 AM

SMH remains in a bearish wave pattern. After bouncing up in December and retesting its broken H&S neckline it dropped back down and then bounced at the end of the month to retest its broken uptrend line from October 2002 (and 50-dma). Today it has now dropped to a new low for the decline from the December high. A move down to 30, or a H&S projection near 28, looks to be next. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 10:42:10 AM

China To Hold Hearings To Discuss Roaming Fees Cut

DJ- China is to hold public hearings into cutting domestic cellphone roaming fees, two ministries stated on their Web sites Wednesday.

In a statement dated Dec. 29, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry Of The Information Industry said participants would include representatives of consumers, operators, experts and other related authorities.

After the hearings, the proposals for the lower roaming fees will be circulated amongst the participants and later released to the public, the statements said.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 10:40:06 AM

USDJPY now at 109.98. This thing is positively diving.

Do remember that the FOMC minutes this afternoon at 2:00 pm ET can totally change what happens with the USDJPY, so be on guard, deciding before that release if you want to stay in your trade.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 10:38:02 AM

The SPX's 9-ema has now turned down to about 1465.80. Bears would prefer that the SPX consolidate sideways while the 9-ema continues descending rather than that the SPX bounce up to test it at its current level, however. A 15-minute close above that 9-ema would also erase its breakdown status, so then all bets would be off for a test of the 1454-1456 zone. The SPX is at 1459.31 as I type.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 10:36:15 AM

Internals are about as bearish as they can get except the AD line which is still above -500. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 10:34:52 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $77.31 +2.04% ... did see an all-time high briefly above 11/21/07 high of $77.59.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 10:33:15 AM

Euro Climbs To Intraday High Above $1.4700

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 10:27:23 AM

GOOG is showing the potential to drop back down at least to its short term uptrend line from November, currently near 670. If that is the bottom of a sideways triangle (green wave (4) on the daily chart) then it should get another rally leg to follow: Link

But if the bearish (dark red) wave count is correct then the decline is about to kick into gear and accelerate to the downside in a 3rd of a 3rd wave down. So far the decline from the Dec 27th high looks more corrective than impulsive and at the present time that supports the bullish wave count but it's still very early in its pullback from the 27th.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 10:26:59 AM

The USDJPY has now dropped to 110.52. Unless it bounces strongly by the end of the day, this is not good. This is below a 50% retracement of its climb off its November low. It's below the November 12 gap.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 10:27:36 AM

US ISM (Aug-Dec) Manufacturing Table at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 10:22:15 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. factory sector contracted in December for the first time in nearly a year, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday.

The ISM index fell to 47.7% from 50.8% in November.

Readings under 50% in the closely watched gauge indicate that more manufacturing firms were contracting than were growing in December.

It's the lowest reading since April 2003 and the first sub-50 reading since January 2007.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected the index to slide to 50.5%.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 10:21:10 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Spending on U.S. construction projects hit a two-month high in November, rising by 0.1% on strong outlays for public, state and local construction projects, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

Spending on home construction, meanwhile, continued its slide, falling by 2.5% in November following a drop of 2.3% in October. It's the 21st consecutive decline.

The overall number was a surprise. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been expecting construction spending to fall by 0.5% in November.

On a year-over-year basis, however, construction spending is down by 0.1%.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 10:20:20 AM

SPX bears should remain protective of profits and should have a profit-protecting plan in place for a test of the 1454-1456 zone. They want to see the SPX maintain breakdown status first of all. That currently requires 15-minute closes beneath about 1464.43 or perhaps as high as 1466.50. They would then like the SPX to continue dropping enough to curve the 9-ema down more steeply. It's currently at about 1467. Rather than bounces up to that moving average, they'd like for any pauses in the downturn to result in sideways consolidation until the 9-ema starts to catch up to the SPX's then-current location, then perhaps a brief punch up to that moving average before being repelled and starting down again. The SPX is at 1458.86 as I type.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 10:19:36 AM

Both the AD volume and AD volume Ratio are making new daily lows supporting the VIX's new daily highs.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 10:18:23 AM

VIX is now making new daily highs so according to the VIX the bears have the ball and are running with it.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 10:16:39 AM

December'06 ISM Marks End of 10 Straight Months Of Expansion ... Measures above 50.0 represent expansion. Measures below 50.0 are considered contraction.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 10:15:01 AM

VIX is telling me that the bears have control though. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 10:14:41 AM

Construction Spending (Sep-Nov) Table at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 10:12:54 AM

The RUT is testing the neckline of its big H&S formation on its intraday chart, forming since Wednesday of last week. That's at about 761.60.

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 10:12:17 AM

Bulls are liking the techs this morning--NDX is holding onto the green while the DOW gets hit harder, which is interesting because it's INTC and IBM that are hurting the DOW this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 10:11:54 AM

US ISM Dec. Mfg Business Index 47.7 Vs. Nov. 50.8 ... Consensus was 51.0.
Prices Index 68.0 Vs. Nov 67.5
Employment Index 48.0 Vs. Nov 47.8
New Orders Index 45.7 Vs. Nov 52.6
Production Index 47.3 Vs. Nov 51.9
Inventories Index 45.5 Vs. Nov 46.9

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 10:10:51 AM

The SPX is in breakdown status on the 15-minute Keltner chart, so I have no short-term targets to give you for now. However, the daily Keltner chart suggests that a target might be near 1454, with presumed support there also on daily closes. The daily chart's targets are sometimes a little off, so assume there's potential support at and potential vulnerability to a zone near 1454, not that there's an exact target there. No all such targets are met anyway, but now you should factor in vulnerability to that area.

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 10:09:33 AM

The DOW is also hitting the bottom of a parallel down-channel from the Dec 26th high so it might find support near here (about 13167). Otherwise a drop to the Nov 18th low near 13092 will be next.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 10:08:56 AM

AD line is now -217, a little more bearish than earlier but the bears still do not have firm control of the ball and certainly do not have field advantage. That may change but for now the AD line is not giving us a clear picture.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 10:07:40 AM

The USDJPY and TRAN have always been my friends, as they often tell the truth when the advdec line and other indicators are not. They've been indicating that something was wrong all day long.

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 10:06:36 AM

With the sharp selloff following the ISM report watch for the possibility of a retest of the overnight low for YM at 13234.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 10:06:00 AM

Oct. construction spending declines revised 0.4%

Nov. public construction spending rises 2.5%

Nov. residential construction spending falls by 2.5%

Nov. construction spending down 0.1% year-over-year

Economists expected 0.5% drop in Nov. construction spending

Nov. construction spending rises 0.1%

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 10:05:00 AM

ISM lowest since April 2003

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 10:04:44 AM

Dec. ISM 47.7% vs. 50.5% expected

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 10:03:33 AM

VXN.X 26.27 +1.42% ...

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 9:59:50 AM

I'm seeing a confusing mixture of indicators this morning: the USDJPY and TRAN remain relatively weak, and that's not good for sustained SPX, OEX and Dow rallies. The advdec line continues climbing, though, and I'm a strong believer that volume patterns tend to lead equities. The VIX has pulled back a little from Friday's late-day surge, but not much. So what is one to make of this mixture? I suggest that "one" not make too much of the mixture yet, keep an open mind, and not be too assured that any one conclusion is the right one. This will sort itself out, but until it does, there are some concerns about direction. If you're seeing a strong setup according to your own trading parameters, just keep on your toes, adhere to your trade management style and perhaps consider a smaller position than your normally would consider.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 9:59:24 AM

ISM will be released at 10:00 ET.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 9:58:35 AM

Swing trade LEAPs Alert! ... for two (2) of the Yahoo Inc. YHOO Jan09 $25.00 Calls (VYH-AE) at the offer of $4.05.

No stop for now, target(s) are $35 for one (1) and $50 for the other.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 9:54:13 AM

I like to read Mark Hulbert. Here is an article he wrote about Gold.


Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 9:53:22 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $394.19 +1.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 9:52:39 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $35.81 +0.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 9:51:54 AM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $24.11 +3.65% ... One of my "Top 5 Bull" picks for 2008.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 9:51:07 AM

Google (GOOG) $695.62 +0.59% ...

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 9:50:20 AM

Gold got a nice shot out of the cannon when it broke out of its triangle pattern that developed since the November high. At this morning's high it is less than 3 points from that 855 high. The projection out of the triangle is to 876 but the way the leg up from the Dec 17 low is developing I'm thinking it might top out closer to a Fib projection at 863. Link

The longer term wave count for gold suggests this rally leg from Dec 17th (not finished yet) could be it for its long term rally so I'll be watching those upside target levels for a short play to set up. Assuming we get at least a pullback from there I'll then get some clues as to whether it'll be setting up another rally leg (light green) or if it will be the start of a much more significant decline. For now though gold remains bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 9:50:17 AM

Internet Search Seen Driving 75% Of 2008 UK Ad Growth

DJ- Internet searches will contribute around three-quarters to the growth in U.K. advertising in 2008, according to an industry forecast.

Group M, a unit of WPP Group PLC (WPPGY), estimates that U.K. advertising will grow by 6% in 2008, but after stripping out the contribution from search engines, such as Google Inc. (GOOG), revenue growth will be around 1.5%.

Group M also said the value of the Internet advertising market will come close to that of the television advertising market in 2008, forecasting its worth at GBP3.4 billion, up from GBP2.6 billion in 2007. U.K. television advertising is expected to be worth GBP3.6 billion in 2008, a rise of 0.9% compared with 2007.

However, Group M said ITV PLC's (ITV.LN) ITV1 channel performed better in advertising revenue terms than the U.K.'s other commercial broadcasters.

Newspaper advertising revenue is expected to decline by 2.8% in 2008, after a 3.4% decline in 2007, Group M forecasts.

Radio, whose revenues contracted sharply in 2006, is expected to grow by 0.9% for 2007, and grow 2% in 2008, Group M says.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 9:47:00 AM

Fed Accepts $14.25 Billion In Overnight RPs

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 9:46:14 AM

The TRAN is now slightly positive. It's at 4570.74 after closing New Year's Eve at 4567.20. That's still not a strong endorsement of SPX, OEX and Dow gains, and neither is the USDJPY's minor gain to 111.15, but we have to see what happens. The SPX is still in that chop zone I mentioned earlier, between the strongest short-term support and strongest short-term resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 1/2/2008 9:45:31 AM

National City Cuts Quarterly Dividend To 21c from 41c

DJ- National City Corp. (NCC) cut its quarterly dividend 49% and plans to lay off 900 mortgage staffers.

The company also plans to raise new money to bolster capital ratios.

The firm cut its dividend to 21 cents from 41 cents.

"We fully recognize that the dividend is an important element of return for shareholders, and we did not take the decision to reduce it lightly," said Chief Executive Peter Raskind. "However, our board and management strongly believe that this action is necessary to help meet the challenges ahead and to continue as a strong competitor in the financial services industry."

The company has retained Goldman Sachs and Co. as capital advisor. It added that it anticipates mortgage originations in 2008 of approximately $15 billion to $20 billion.

NCC $15.95 -3.09% ...

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 9:42:09 AM

AD line is +139 so neither the bulls nor the bears are winning this morning.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 9:40:09 AM

It's getting expensive to trade, isn't it, Jane, paying all the different exchange fees?

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 9:38:49 AM

The USDJPY dropped to 111.03, but is now tentatively bouncing, up to 110.10.

Let's look at SPX short-term Keltner support/resistance levels. First potential resistance is at the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1471.24. Then it's layered up to 1476.25 on 15-minute closes, where it's strongest. Right now, support looks fairly firm on a Keltner basis, layered down to 1465 on 15-minute closes. So, to me, it looks as if the SPX is currently in a chop zone, with fairly strong support and fairly strong resistance up near 1476, at least. From a Keltner standpoint, it looks as if it's going to require a rather strong push to get through that strongest support or strongest resistance. If that strong push doesn't come, it looks as if we're going to see chop for a while as direction is decided.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 9:35:33 AM

I could show you the e-mini Gold markets but they trade on the NYMEX and it is the same story for NYMEX, data used to be provided for free but we are now been charged.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 9:34:30 AM

The TRAN isn't gaining this morning. Unless things turn around, that's two indicators of a sort that aren't supporting SPX gains. Something is wrong somewhere, and it's either the SPX or these other two.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 9:33:17 AM

Equities are gaining, but the USDJPY continues dropping. Be careful about trades in this climate. The USDJPY is at 111.10 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 9:31:09 AM

I show the USDJPY dropping to 111.16, a new recent low. Although we can't count on the intermarket relationship of U.S. equities to the USDJPY always working the same way it has in the past, this certainly would have been negative for equities in the past. Unless there's a bounce in this currency pair, it's not supportive of equity gains, so this is at least for the time being negative for equities.

Keene Little : 1/2/2008 9:30:26 AM

The DOW futures (YM) had a wild ride in overnight trading with a big rally off the low around 1:00 AM to the high before 7:00 AM. Equity futures have since pulled back to the flat line (dropping a little lower as I type). There is the possibility that we could see a decline this morning to test the overnight low at YM 13234.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 9:20:54 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose sharply to trade near $850 an ounce Wednesday, as rallying crude-oil prices, U.S. dollar weakness and rising global political tensions boosted demand for the precious metal.

Gold for February delivery surged $12.50 at $850.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It hit an intraday high of $852 an ounce.

The record high for Nymex gold was $875, set on Jan. 21, 1980.

"Gold prices celebrated the start of 2008 in high style, rising beyond the pinnacle they achieved last year," said Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, in a research note.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 9:19:55 AM

Same story for GOLD :( so here is GLD the ETF for Gold and the market I use to trade Gold. Link

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 9:18:05 AM

Unfortunately I cannot show you a chart of Crude because it is on the same exchange as the Dow futures but I can show you QM, Crude's electronic market on the NYMEX.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 9:14:53 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures rose as high as $98.29 a barrel, and in morning trade rose $2.02 to $98 a barrel, a day before the release of weekly inventory data. More violence in oil-producing Nigeria also contributed to the gains in crude.

Jane Fox : 1/2/2008 9:13:47 AM

Here are your overnight charts. As you can see I am not getting CBOT data for the DOW futures (YM) because, although I used to get this data for free, Tradestation is now charging for it. I am on the phone with them now trying to subscribe to the ECBOT (CBOT's electronic exchange) since the website where I use to subscribe seems to be in overload this morning. Link

Linda Piazza : 1/2/2008 8:10:48 AM

Happy New Year, Everyone! We have no more market holidays now until January 21. Volume will perhaps begin building again toward normal levels at the end of this week or the beginning of next week but be cautious again this morning.

When I went to sleep near midnight CST, futures were well below fair values and headed lower. When I woke, they were positive. The FTSE 100 and DAX opened in negative territory but then zoomed higher. The DAX couldn't maintain its positive levels, however, and quickly dropped back to the flatline levels where it's consolidated since midmorning in Germany. The USDJPY is at 111.40 as I type, continuing the sharp downturn that began on 12/27. A downturn in the USDJPY is not usually positive for U.S. equities. So, there's some confusing action still, proving that there's also still a need for caution when making trading decisions.

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