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Keene Little : 1/11/2008 12:07:18 AM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

I had mentioned during the day on Thursday that SPX had some tough resistance levels to get through and those levels are still ahead for the bulls to conquer on Friday. Thursday's rally moved up into the 30-min 100/130 moving averages (1424.65/1431 at the close) which often act as support/resistance the first time they're touched. The last time these averages were tagged were bounces back up to them on Dec 28th and Dec 31st: Link

The daily chart shows the broken uptrend line from March 2003 which is currently just above 1427. This trend line, which supported the declines in August and November and broke last Friday, is another resistance level that the bulls have to contend with. And there's Tuesday's 1430 high that needs to be broken in order to break the sequence of lower highs in the decline from Dec 26th. Link

It's anyone's guess about what happens on Friday. The price pattern does not suggest one way or the other and I see the possibility for a retest of Wednesday's low or just a pullback before breaking above the resistance levels or just rallying out of the gate and then pulling back to resistance-turned-support. Hopefully price action will clear up a little after trading gets started in the morning.

OI Technical Staff : 1/10/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 6:59:28 PM

I've got an Andrews Pitchfork on the DIA too! 10/11/07 high, then down to 11/26/07 low, then up to 12/11/07 relative high. (See yesterday's RISK to $124 comment)

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 6:55:38 PM

Or the USO!

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 6:53:52 PM

Check out cl08g with Andrews Pitchfork tool!

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 6:44:57 PM

Good Gravy! ... BOOM $52.71 +7.09% Link ... Those bearish triangles are something aren't they?

Back when I first alerted traders/investors to BOOM (about $5) they were a 1-trick pony. Explosives for mines. Recession had them "changing" and developing new products. That's what recessions do. They force change, bring about innovation.

Those than can't change, or refuse to change ... end up at the bottom of the barrel.

Tough to imagine that trade on 11/12/04 the "revalation" of what was about to unfold.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 6:24:48 PM

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) ... Daily interval bar chart with "Andrews Pitchfork (Modified Shiff) Link

Entered/exited on 11/06/07 and 11/08/07 an SIL-LD call.

Place pitchfork high at that 11/08/07 high. Now alert should SLV trade upper channel at $170.

Unfortunate we couldn't get known/confirm trigger on CDE day trade long today. I didn't get partial fill bid in personal account, so can't assume subscribers did either (see 12:14:52 and 12:31:43).

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 6:06:13 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) ... Daily interval bar chart with "Andrews Pitcfork (Modified Shiff)" Link

Exited GG-MZ puts on 12/12 as another "wave of bullishness" looked ready to take hold.

If looking to short gold, better see that action from 11/26 and 11/27 (mid-point of pitchfork). Overhead supply does not exist.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 5:49:38 PM

Continuous Silver $0.10-box Link

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) $160.61 +3.48% ... $1-box Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 5:38:45 PM

Continuous Gold $4-box Link

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $88.25 +1.96% ... $0.40 box Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 5:21:32 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 4:56:46 PM

Gold (YG) is now approaching its upside target, near $900, out of its triangle pattern. Could be an interesting setup again for a short play if it can rally about another $5. This one has some strong momentum so be careful with this if you want to try a short. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:53:37 PM

Canada GDP Forecast (update)

DJ- Canada's economic growth forecast for 2008 will probably be revised down to around 2% to 2.2% from the 2.4% predicted in the October economic statement, a senior finance official said Thursday.

The official was speaking at a briefing a day before Prime Minister Stephen Harper meets with provincial premiers to discuss the economy.

The government uses economic projections from private-sector economists. The October forecast was itself a downward revision from the 2.9% predicted in the March 2007 budget. Formal revisions for 2008 will be in the next budget, expected in the spring.

The finance official said key challenges for the economy include the risk of slower than expected growth in the U.S. and the strong Canadian dollar which makes it harder for Canadian goods to compete in the global market.

He said the outlook for the U.S. economy is worse now than in October.

The shortage of labor and an aging population are other challenges, the official said. He said productivity will be a key element in resolving these challenges.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:48:32 PM

Hmmm ... that would be "modest expansion" from our neighbors to the north.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:47:57 PM

Canada'08 GDP Seen Growing 2% to 2.2%: Financial Official

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:38:43 PM

DIA's DAILY Pivot Levels for Tuesday (using regular session high/low/close ... $124.79, $126.31, Piv= $127.81, $129.33, 130.83.

Note: Correlative WKLY S1 $126.26 and DAILY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:24:27 PM

Tough couple of days for YM shorts. Wednesday's 02:15 lows, today's 11:10 lows.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:21:01 PM

YM 12,829 ... if short the day's highs (near DIA $129) would look to cover here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:18:46 PM

AXP Consensus was for EPS of $0.87 on Revenue of $7.87B

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:16:44 PM

American Express Sees Weaker U.S. Economy ... AXP Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:13:40 PM

DIA $128.03

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:12:51 PM

American Express (AXP) $48.92 -0.32% ... darts to $46.24 extended. #15 weight in INDU/DIA/YM

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:10:17 PM

Remember! Next Friday is January Op-Ex

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:09:34 PM

Will check tomorrow's DAILY Pivot levels. Seemed important for RUT.X today.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:08:39 PM

Nope ... "no way" DIA gets $135.13. WKLY R1 $131.69 possible.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:07:27 PM

MO $78.82 -0.49% ... $80 strike. WKLY R2 $77.23.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:06:24 PM

MMM $80.21 +0.02% ... $80 strike. WKLY S1 $80.47, WKLY Piv $82.84.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:05:27 PM

BA $82.36 +2.56% ... WKLY S2 $83.96, WKLY S1 $84.82

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:04:22 PM

XOM $91.62 +0.06% ... WKLY Pivot $92.94

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:03:37 PM

IBM $99.92 +1.63% ... $100 strike, then WEEKLY Pivot $103.85.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:02:06 PM

There's "now way" the DIA trades WKLY R2 tomorrow. But if it does ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 4:01:11 PM

Yahoo $24.14 +6.95% .. near-term observation after stock backtested WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 3:51:37 PM

Under the backdrop of a "moderate recession" in 2008 for U.S., looking to put RIO again, but closer to $35.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 3:50:31 PM

RIO was able to close above $32.50 last expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 3:50:04 PM

Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO) $32.46 +3.37% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 3:49:22 PM

Brazil Stocks Close Higher On US Rate Outlook, Merger Talk

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 3:46:13 PM

The overlapping highs and lows in the rally off yesterday's low is keeping me from getting real bullish on this bounce. It could certainly be the start of a larger corrective bounce but it has me still wondering if we might get another drop back down to at least test yesterday's low if not break it. The daily DOW chart shows the wave count for a move down that needs another low to finish the decline from Dec 11th (pink). Link

The dark red count shows we're in the beginning of a larger correction that will take us into February and possibly as high as 13300-13400. A pullback to correct the rally off yesterday's low followed by another high would confirm we're in the larger upward correction.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 3:39:20 PM

QCharts not showing OI for that $25 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 3:37:52 PM

YHOO $24.36 +7.97% ... near-term observation of kiss of WEEKLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 3:33:51 PM

DIA Options Montage ... CBOE Volume only Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 3:27:16 PM

NYSE NH/NL 41:212 ... so Daily 16.2%, 5-day still flat at 9.3%.

Toughy ...

DIA $128.92 ... can't leverage further long yet. Maybe a gap above WKLY Pivot tomorrow?

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 3:24:49 PM

How's that NL/NL test coming?

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 3:24:22 PM

You now want the SPX to find support at 1419.60 on 15-minute closes. It needs to do that to maintain its current 1448.61 upside target. In this climate, use such targets as planning tools, not as expected levels to be reached. What do I mean? I mean that if you're holding overnight, spend some time planning what you'll do if the SPX should touch 1448.61 tomorrow. What will you do if the SPX instead gaps lower, below 1419.61, for example, and erases that upside target?

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 3:21:41 PM

RUT.X 723.14 +1.54% ...

DIA $128.89 +1.52%

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 3:21:23 PM

If the TRAN ends the day anywhere near its current 4296.83 level, it will have confirmed a morning-star reversal signal, a bullish signal. It will have done it at the bottom of a descending channel in place since July, 2007, and it will have done so with daily RSI having pierced 30, a signal that usually accompanies successful tests of the channel's support. However, it will also end the day below November's 4346.39 low, a level it could test as soon as tomorrow. If you're in a bullish SPX, OEX or Dow trade, and if you've decided to hold it overnight, be watchful tomorrow as the TRAN approaches that previous low. All we've seen right now is an automatic and expected reversal from anticipated support. The TRAN doesn't have to climb all the way to the top of that channel before it reverses again, so be watchful of key resistance levels if it continues climbing.

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 3:20:19 PM

Just above the broken uptrend line near SPX 1428 is its 10-dma just under 1432. SPX is also running into potential resistance by its 30-min 100/130-pma's near 1425 and 1431. So there could be some tough resistance here for SPX to overcome. Maybe after a pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 3:15:57 PM

Yahoo! $24.40 +8.15% ... leading

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 3:15:21 PM

SOHU $48.93 +2.10% ... participating

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 3:13:45 PM

SPX has also made it back up to its broken uptrend line from 2003. Needless to say bulls do not want to see a kiss goodbye against this important trend line, currently just under 1428.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 3:13:19 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 3:10:46 PM

It'll look around ... prarie dog'n

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 3:10:25 PM

DIA $129.07 +1.66% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 3:09:36 PM

A little one ... just some arbitrage.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 3:09:10 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $128.92

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 3:00:09 PM

And DON'T be overleveraged!

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 2:59:35 PM

Then squint and plug your ears!

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 2:59:18 PM

DIA $128.92 +1.54% ... Know where we are.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 2:58:49 PM

VXO.X 24.89

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 2:57:23 PM

Yep ... check out CFC's chart.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 2:56:56 PM

Good gravy! ... Just looking at PREM.X ... had a "dinger" to as high as 16.15 at 02:15-20 PM EST.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 2:55:44 PM

Keene! That's correlative to that 11/27/07 trade too.

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 2:50:12 PM

The SPX closed a 15-minute period above the Keltner resistance that I've been watching, the first time it's done so in ten days. It has not, however, confirmed by creating a new high of the day, and you want that to happen if you're in bullish positions. Otherwise, the specter of an equal-high, a double-top formation, remains.

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 2:47:40 PM

The DOW is approaching its 30-min 100/130 moving averages which it hasn't seen since crossing below them on Dec 28th. They're currently at 12892 (100-pma) and 12952 (130-pma). The 10-dma is at 12950. So by these measures there's certainly more room for this rally leg. We could first see a pullback though since there's a small 5-wave move up now from this afternoon's pullback low.

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 2:43:32 PM

Let's see if the SPX can close this 15-minute period above the Keltner resistance this time, as it was unable to do the last time it punched above. That resistance is at 1417.70 on a 15-minute close, with further S/R at 1413.56. Those in bullish positions don't want to see a quick drop again as the previous high of the day is tested.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 2:38:42 PM

See the DAW-AY on your Level II ... in that "pocket" of trade where we don't see any trades.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 2:37:07 PM

Need more though .... DIA $128.24 +1.00% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 2:36:26 PM

Not what I'd have expected after Bernanke's comments ... 5-year Yield ($FVX.X) up 5.0 bp at 3.139%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 2:33:52 PM

CFC $7.32 +41.60% ... good eye Jane!

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 2:30:16 PM

If the WEAKEST market can rally further, then that bodes well for the STRONGER.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 2:29:06 PM

RUT.X 15-minute interval chart with QCharts WEEKLY Pivot Levels turned on Link

When a technician like myself sees "resistance broken; becoming support" that can signal a near-term change in direction.

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 2:27:54 PM

Dateline WSJ - Bank of America Corp. is in advanced talks to acquire struggling Countrywide Financial Corp., according to people familiar with the situation.

It isn't clear how quickly a deal might be struck, but two people familiar with the matter said it could occur very soon. It also is possible that an agreement could be delayed or fall apart altogether.

The market value of Countrywide has plunged to about $3 billion, which represents about two months' profit for Bank of America. The Charlotte, N.C., bank paid $21 billion cash over the summer for LaSalle Bank of Chicago.

Countrywide's stock has plunged in recent days amid intensifying anxiety among investors over a continuing surge in defaults and foreclosures afflicting the Calabasas, Calif., lender and others in the mortgage industry as home prices fall and the threat of a recession grows.

Bank of America last August propped up Countrywide by buying $2 billion of preferred shares convertible into a stake of about 16% in the lender.

Since then, Countrywide's default problems have continued to grow, sparking speculation that the company could face bankruptcy. Countrywide was forced to deny earlier this week that it planned to file for bankruptcy.

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 2:27:33 PM

The news about BofA buying CFC has sure boosted the price of CFC, approaching $9 now after dropping below $5 yesterday. I know a few of you who tried a long play on CFC and I think it would be a good idea to peel a little money off the table here.

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 2:26:13 PM

Just in case you were thinking the bulls had a chance, keep in mind if January closes with the jtHMA red it will be the first time since April 2003.

Sobering I know. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 2:24:16 PM

RUT.X ... 716.53 +0.61% ... encouraging "bounce" after backtest of downward trend from 12/26/07 releative high, all the way down to 08/08/08 inflection high.

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 2:23:57 PM

Dateline WSJ - Bank of America is in advanced talks to acquire Countrywide Financial

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 2:21:51 PM

Looks like another buy program but the techs and small caps still look to be on the weaker side. This could be more evidence that the PPT is at work and is doing the buying in the bigger indexes.

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 2:21:20 PM

Although the NDX futures (NQ) did break its overnight high it fell back into the abyss (overnight range) and has not been able to break out of it again. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 2:20:07 PM

SOHU Link ... still holding that spread triple bottom at $48.00

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 2:20:02 PM

Another test underway of the SPX Keltner resistance now at 1413.42 and then at 1416.63 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 2:17:08 PM

A little nervous with SOHU after seeing CHA at post bullish profile high (11/02/07 CHA-LT @ $80.52).

Is "China Premier" changing his mind?

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 2:13:17 PM

BIDU $336.66 -2.16% ...

CHA $89.55 +5.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 2:12:43 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

CLOSED out the UZK-NI at the bid of $2.70 with SOHU trading $48.75.

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 2:03:41 PM

It would appear the market is hanging onto hopes that the Fed will cut rates before the end of the month. If they do then it will probably be timed to inflict the most pain on shorts. It's another reason why I do not like the idea of carrying any shorts overnight. But at any time between now and the end of the month if we get a nasty decline I wouldn't be surprised to see the Fed make their announcement (along with the PPT coming in and start some massive buying of the futures).

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 1:58:42 PM

Sector Losers ... Oil Service -2.46%, CBOE Oil -2.10%, Semiconductor -1.38%, DiskDrive -1.24%, Nat Gas -1.24%

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 1:57:11 PM

Sector Winners ... XAL.X +10.33%, Homebuilders +2.15%, Broker/Dealers +1.21%, Transports +1.46%, Gold Bugs +1.16%

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 1:54:53 PM

DIA 127.09 +0.10%

RUT.X $71.74 -0.19% ...

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 1:49:29 PM

This drop has brought the SPX back below the 15-minute 9-ema again, dropping the SPX back to test the neckline of its inverse H&S. That neckline is a descending one, now crossing at about 1403.50.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 1:50:08 PM

Certainly a "school" of equity shorts that fear Fed rate cuts, but growing smaller in number.

Get's the "knee-jerk" reaction, then calms down.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 1:44:03 PM

NYSE and NASDAQ Internals Table at this Link

Still don't have a 3-box reversal higher on the NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio, so no "inflection low" at this point.

Yesterday's NYSE Daily NH/NL ratio similar to 11/21/07.

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 1:34:15 PM

Stepping away for about 30 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 1:23:05 PM

The SPX is triangling up (new term, smile) at the top of its climb. That's typically bullish. I'm listening to Fed Chairman Bernanke, however, taking notes for tonight's Wrap, and it's hard to feel anything but worried.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 1:18:57 PM

One "test" I set for the NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio was to at least see its %change rise 3.2% today.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 1:15:43 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 1:15:39 PM

There are several possibilities for price action from here and in fact too many to make for any good trade setups at the moment (so flat is a good position). This is an update to the SPX 60-min chart I posted last night showing a couple of thoughts: Link

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 1:13:10 PM

If you draw a descending trendline from the SPX 1/8 10:00 am high to the 1/8 2:30 pm high and then through this morning's early high, you see that the trendline describes a neckline for an inverse H&S. So, it's been confirmed when pricees spiked higher as the prepared statement was released. That confirmation is on the bullish side. Candles are forming now above that trendline. That's on the bullish side. They're still not able to break above the Keltner resistance being tested nor to a new day's high, much less above Tuesday's morning or afternoon peaks. That's a bit troublesome and shows some effort to sort out whether Fed Chairman Bernanke's news is market friendly or not. Just keep an open mind and keep protective stops set at account-appropriate levels, whichever side of a trade you're on.

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 1:05:28 PM

Fifteen-minute SPX candles are stacking up one after another at the resistance now near 1415.50 on 15-minute closes. They're maintaining support at the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1408.54. That's all good. RSI isn't looking too great, though, now at 65.17 and so far producing a lower high when price produced a higher high. This is just a small and tentative bearish divergence so far, so nothing upon which to hang a bearish trade, certainly. Just something to watch. Basically, we can say that resistance is holding, but that bulls are still managing enough strength to keep testing it.

After surging up to resistance near +700, the advdec line is consolidating there, too. It's at +661 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 1:03:13 PM

Still a lot of work to be done for short-term bulls.

DIA $128.03 +0.84% ... DAW-AY $1.05 x $1.08

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 1:01:54 PM

Encouraging action in YM on re-test of early morning highs.

See 11:08:21 as it appears shorts took oppurtunity to cover on backtest.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:59:32 PM

CDE $4.81 +2.77% ... if partial filled at $4.64, then lock in Day Trade gain.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:58:56 PM

Earnings: 31 S&P 500 Companies Reported (Table) at this Link 12:54:24

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:57:08 PM

CDE's WKLY R1 just ahead at $4.83. DAILY R2 $4.87

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:56:22 PM

CDE Alert! ... $4.80

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:54:38 PM

I'll follow with Table in a moment.

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 12:54:26 PM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke opened the door to aggressive interest-rate reductions, saying downside risks to the economy "have become more pronounced."

His remarks support Wall Street's expectation that officials will lower the fed funds rate by as much as one-half percentage point when they meet at the end of this month.

"In light of recent changes in the outlook for and the risks to growth, additional policy easing may well be necessary," and officials "stand ready to take substantive additional action as needed to support growth," Mr. Bernanke said in prepared remarks to the Woman in Housing and Finance and Exchequer Club.

Mr. Bernanke's message provides clarity at a time when economic data, Wall Street and pronouncements by Fed officials have sent mixed messages about the outlook for growth and monetary policy.

Last month, the Federal Open Market Committee cut its primary instrument, the fed funds rate at which banks lend to each other, by 0.25 percentage point to 4.25%, its third-straight reduction totaling one percentage point.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:54:24 PM

US Earnings: Q4 Results Down 60.7% Vs. 2006, Dn 43.8% Vs. Views ... The earnings of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index that have issued fourth-quarter reports are running 60.7% lower than year-earlier results, according to Thomson Financial. Of the 500 companies, 31, or 6%, had reported earnings for the quarter as of Thursday. So far, fourth-quarter earnings have come in 43.8% lower than analysts' expectations. Compared with a year earlier, earnings of S&P 500 companies are expected to fall 11% in the fourth quarter. That figure reflects actual earnings for the companies that already have reported and average estimates for the rest. For the first quarter, analysts, on average, expect earnings of the S&P 500 companies to rise 5.6% from the year-earlier period. The following table shows how the 31 companies that have reported performed in the fourth quarter, compared with analysts' average expectations. Thomson Financial said 74, or 54%, of the 138 companies in the S&P 500 that provided previews for the first quarter as of Thursday will miss analysts' mean expectations; 22, or 16%, expect to meet analysts' expectations; and 42, or 30%, anticipate they will beat the projections. At a comparable time last year, 92, or about 60%, of the 154 companies in the S&P 500 that provided first-quarter previews warned of shortfalls; 27, or about 18%, anticipated on-target results; and 35, or about 23%, projected higher-than-expected earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:52:32 PM

UN: Africa Will Sustain 6.2% Econ Growth Rate In 2008

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 12:52:23 PM

Think we're mixed up? We're not the only ones. I've been reading a report that noted that the immediate reaction in the treasuries was to see short-term bonds spike higher (and their yields lower) on hopes that a rate reduction might be in the works while long-term bonds fell (and their yields went higher) due to inflation concerns.

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 12:49:32 PM

Well, the only question that surge answered was that there's a lot of uncertainty in the markets and that Fed Chairman Bernanke's statements have the potential to move markets. On the SPX, resistance held on 15-minute closes. It looks as if the SPX may be headed back to the zone in which it consolidated most of the morning, with potential support at 1402 and again at 1406 on 15-minute closes. Resistance still looks as firm as it did earlier, but we've gotten a look at how markets might respond if Fed Chairman Bernanke gives them the least bit of reason to rally.

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 12:46:20 PM

The inability to hold onto the gains following the leaked Bernanke speech is saying the market is perhaps worried about Bernanke being so worried. Past rate cuts have not helped this market and future rates cuts won't help (certainly not for the short term). It continues to make the price pattern very choppy that's for sure.

A downtrend line on SPX drawn from the Dec 26th high through the Dec 31st high stopped that spike up. If it now drops back below this morning's pullback low it will leave a 3-wave bounce in its wake and that would be a signal that we haven't seen the low yet. So that's the level the bulls need to defend (SPX 1398).

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 12:44:28 PM

The USDJPY is dropping hard but remains above that 108.90-109.00 tentative support zone. It's at 109.15 as I type. It's dropped steeply from its 110.10 overnight high, dropping from 109.64 less than 30 minutes ago.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:41:52 PM

Dollar Slips On Bernanke Comments

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:41:23 PM

DJ- Oil Futures: Nymex Crude Jumps On Bernanke Comments

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:37:36 PM

SOHU $47.93 -1.98% ... not participating ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:34:48 PM

DJ- Spot Gold Hits New Record Above $891.50/oz On Rate Cut Talk

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 12:34:14 PM

Here's what I'm seeing on the SPX's 15-minute Keltner chart, so you have a picture to go with my words: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:32:49 PM

Apex Silver (SIL) $15.61 +1.62% ... SIL-BC $1.35 x $1.60

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:31:43 PM

Day trade long cancel order alert! ... for the Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) $4.74 +1.28% ... can't be sure we got filled at $4.64 (12:14:52).

If you got filled, would raise stop to assure profit.

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 12:30:19 PM

I am not liking this quick reversal back below Keltner resistance. However, the 15-minute period is still not concluded.

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 12:29:58 PM

The euro has spiked higher, as have the metals, and the dollar has dropped. Bernanke's comments about throwing more money at the market (through the PPT) has stock traders excited. Obvioulsy concerns about inflation have been thrown out the window.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:29:31 PM

10-year ($TNX.X) up 3.6 bp at 3.827% ...

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 12:29:03 PM

The SPX's resistance is at about 1416 on 15-minute closes, with the current 15-minute period not yet concluded and prices dropping quickly back toward that Keltner line. The advdec line's action offers us proof that the surge we needed was offered, so there's first corroboration from this breadth indicator, at least. An obvious effort is being made to spike prices higher ahead of Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech. Do be cautious going into that speech, beginning in about 30 minutes, and make sure you protect profits.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:28:55 PM

Fed's Bernanke ... "Open Door" To Aggressive Rate Cuts.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:27:21 PM

RUT 719.28 +1.00% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:26:41 PM

NYSE NH/NL 23:191

A/D 1,679/1,381 (see Monday's Wrap) Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:24:26 PM

VXO.X alert! 25.36 -2.79% (see yesterday's MM notes)

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:23:29 PM

Swing trade put exit alert! for the UZK-NI at the bid of $2.70.

SOHU $48.75 -0.30% ...

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 12:23:23 PM

The SPX is at Keltner resistance now, testing it. In the last five minutes, the advdec line has surged higher, breaking through analogous Keltner resistance and surging all the way up to approach next resistance at 635.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:21:47 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $127.86 +0.70% ... know where we are.

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 12:19:35 PM

Looks like the PPT is going to get active prior to Bernanke's speech to ensure the market doesn't blow him a raspberry.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:19:30 PM

Good gravy! CHA $90.50 +6.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:19:08 PM

RUT.X 713.26 +0.16% ... 11:09:01 and 11:10:00

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 12:18:41 PM

Big buy program just hit across the board.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:18:09 PM

Buy Program Premium DIA $127.76

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:15:44 PM

Shoot! ... CDE $4.66 by time I got typed. Bidding $4.64.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:14:52 PM

Day trade long alert! ... for 1/2 position in shares of Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) at the offer of $4.64.

Stop goes $4.56. Target $4.80

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 12:07:34 PM

In my previous post, I cautioned subscribers to do everything they could do to keep losses small. If your trading account is small, say $5,000, and you're an active trader, that might not be enough. A number of small losses in a row can still be much more significant to you than it would be to a trader with a much larger trading account, and there absolutely are going to be losses and often several in a row. Sometimes you get those several-in-a-row losses as market conditions change, and it's the multiple drawdowns that show you that conditions have changed. What was working before isn't working now.

If you're trading with a small account, you must exercise even more discipline than those with a larger account, although a larger account doesn't give one a license to be careless. A trader with a small account must absolutely decide that some times are just not trade-worthy. Make sure that each trade's setup is stellar.

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 12:03:50 PM

With price consolidating near the highs of yesterday's late-day rally, and just underneath the downtrend lines, it looks bullish. That's why a break to a new daily high will be bullish. The flip side is if the bullish consolidation pattern fails to the downside it could be a swift decline. Maybe Bernanke's words of wisdom, or announcement that the PPT is going to flood the market with buy orders, will break this log jam.

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 12:00:46 PM

Sideways into Bernanke's speech at 1:00 pm ET? The sideways consolidation after the rise off yesterday's low is somewhat encouraging.

However, resistance from 1409-1415.40 continues to look firm. Support, however, may be weakening, which is a bit worrisome. It's softening and drifting downward, the lines separating. There's light support at 1396.19 but then below that, it's a steep fall to 1380.94 and then 1376.72. This is not definitive evidence of anything other than corroboration of what you already knew: in this market environment, do everything you can to protect your trading capital. Once a trade is a winner, don't let it turn into a loser. Try to keep losses as small as possible.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 12:00:13 PM

"Bearish signal reversed" ... Purdue University study of equity charts showed this pattern profitable 92.0% of the time for an average gain of 23.2% in 2.5 months time on average. It is considered the most powerful of bullish patterns.

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 11:58:19 AM

AD ratio is below 1 so it is bearish but it is not making new daily lows.
AD volume is below 0 so it is bearish and is making new daily lows.
VIX is neutral
DAX is making new daily lows so bearish
USDJPY is testing daily lows but not making new daily lows so I will have to put this in the bearish category. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 11:58:19 AM

iShares Silver (SLV) $157.34 +1.38% Link ... edges to new 52-weeker.

Note "bearish signal reversed" at $148.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 11:55:33 AM

Thornburg Mortgage Corp. (TMA) $7.78 -10.13% ... Said it will sell 15.5 million shares in two public offerings to raise $200 million in additional long-term capital to finance the acquisition and origination of adjustable-rate mortgage assets. The real estate investment trust said one offering is for 4.5 million shares of its 10% Series F preferred stock. Thornburg said the other offer is for 11 million shares of its common stock.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 11:54:05 AM

Target Corp. (TGT) $50.84 +1.78% ... December same-store sales fell 5% from a year earlier, hurt in part by a decline in store traffic. On a calendar-adjusted basis, same-store sales increased 0.6% for the five-weeks ended Jan. 5 from the five-weeks ended Jan. 6, 2007. A Thomson Financial survey of analysts, on average, predicted a same-store sales decline of 2.5%. The Minneapolis retailer said sales for the five weeks ended Jan. 5 rose slightly to $9.26 billion from $9.25 billion for the five weeks ended Dec. 30, 2006. The company said it continues to expect that fourth-quarter earnings "won't meet last year's performance." In addition, Target is forecasting January same-store sales to be down 1% to up 1%. On Wednesday, Target named President Gregg Steinhafel chief executive, succeeding Bob Ulrich, who is retiring May 1.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 11:52:29 AM

NCR Corp. (NCR) $23.01 +9.72% ... Raised its 2007 estimate for its earnings from continuing operations and now expects them to be in a range of 87 cents to 92 cents a share. It said it expects earnings per share, excluding the impact of non-operational items, to be $1.35 to $1.40 per share, rather than the $1.20 to $1.25 per share previously expected.

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 11:52:25 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is investigating allegations that Intel Corp. coerced its customers into excluding products from rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc., the agency said Thursday.

Cuomo has served "a wide-ranging subpoena seeking documents and information" on Intel , which has been accused of violating state and federal antitrust laws, the agency said. Intel shares were off about 2% late Thursday morning.

The move is the latest legal antitrust challenge to the Santa Clara, Calif.-based technology giant, the world's largest maker of computer microprocessors, which has faced similar allegations from authorities in Europe and Asia.

Earlier this week, Intel said it sent a formal response to the European Commission, which has also accused the company of manipulating customers into excluding chips from AMD .

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 11:44:14 AM

PREM.X chart 5-minute intervals Link

QCharts users can set "alerts" each day at the given buy and sell program premium levels.

Right click you mouse in the chart, then "add alert" ABOVE $8.32 and one BELOW $4.62.

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 11:42:51 AM

The XAL, the AMEX Airline Index, has been shooting higher today on speculation that Northwest and Delta may merge. I've just been reading information that an Air Canada flight made an emergency landing this morning, with an unconfirmed report that as many as 15 passengers were injured seriously. Air Canada is not a component stock of the XAL, of course, but I just wanted to let subscribers know in case this news impacted your trades or positions in XAL component stocks, including NWA or DAL. Currently, all 14 XAL component stocks are higher. I don't trade on news, but that doesn't mean that I ignore it, either. My condolences go out, of course, to anyone injured on that flight.

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 11:29:17 AM

The SPX is steadying at 1400-1401.70 Keltner support, at least so far. That's a tentative sign in the favor of the bulls, as is the fact that RSI is cycling down and recharging while prices essentially move sideways.

However, as I and others have been noting since yesterday, resistance of many types exists in the 1406-1410 zone. On a Keltner basis, it doesn't appear to be softening, either. I thought earlier that breaking through that resistance was going to take either a strong thrust backed up by volume patterns to power through it or else some prolonged consolidation long enough to separate the lines and soften the resistance. I don't see anything that's changed my mind. So far, the advdec line hit resistance and promptly fell back.

The danger is that, despite a few tentative signs in the bulls' favor, markets are weak. Yesterday's volume was high, and so a lot of weak hands must have been flushed out, but not all have been. They'll dump stock in a heartbeat if they get scared.

What could scare them? Bernanke will be speaking this afternoon, if my calendar is correct. There's lots of opportunity to be scared.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 11:27:06 AM

Buy Program Premium ... RUT 706.44, DIA $127.15

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 11:15:16 AM

This is something you do not see often, the DOW the stronger market. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 11:13:38 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 11:10:24 AM

DIA $126.96 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 11:10:00 AM

If looking for any sign of short coverning to take hold, this would be it ... RUT.X has been the WEAKEST.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 11:09:01 AM

RUT.X 705.35 -0.95% ... backtests WEEKLY S1/DAILY Pivot overlap.

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 11:08:21 AM

For now I'd say you want to be short below this morning's high and then look to buy a breakout above (or buy a pullback that retests the broken downtrend lines). As long as the techs remain weak I would be very careful about the long side. So far the market remains bearish.

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 11:01:56 AM

Advdec line now -739 according to my provider. It's not steadying so far.

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 11:00:57 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema has now risen to about 1401.60 with further support at 1400.64 on 15-minute closes. U.S. equity bulls want this support to hold on 15-minute closes. I looked at the advdec line. It pierced the Keltner resistance I had been watching and has since pulled back sharply. It's at -618 as I type, below its potential -500 support on 15-minute closes. U.S. equity bulls wold like to see it steady here and climb back at least to -500 if not higher.

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 10:42:28 AM

DOW and SPX pushing higher. It would be nice to see the techs joining in. Without them it makes a rally in the large caps a little suspect.

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 10:35:14 AM

On the other hand the VIX is quite bullish so the pushing and pulling of the AD line and VIX will give us non-directional markets today. Link

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 10:33:47 AM

AD line opened a bearish -1450 but has "improved" to -497 now.

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 10:33:09 AM

The TRAN is already challenging Keltner resistance analogous to the SPX's 1415-1417 Keltner resistance. It may give us a heads up, too, as it appears to be leading the way this morning. SPX bulls would like to see the TRAN power up through 4248 on 15-minute closes. It's at 4213.41 as It ype.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 10:32:37 AM

EIA: Weekly Nat. Gas Storage Table Link ... Draw of 171 Bcf

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 10:30:55 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is still near 1400 with further potential new support at 1400.26 on 15-minute closes. U.S. equity bulls want that to hold. The SPX is at 1403.98 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 10:24:56 AM

Yahoo Shares Up On Report Microsoft Interested ... MarketWatch Story Link

YHOO $23.43 +3.85% ...

MSFT $34.10 -0.98% ...

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 10:24:31 AM

The SPX is testing historical resistance at 1406, facing Keltner resistance that begins at 1412 and extends up to 1417.18. That converging Keltner resistance looks strong, so it's going to take a powering through to break it or else consolidation just beneath it, continuing long enough to separate the lines. That's why I'm watching the advdec line so closely this morning, to see if it shows us a surge or else a strong rollover. It could give us a heads up.

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 10:21:15 AM

At -423 as I type, the advdec line hit a high of -258. It's now testing that Keltner resistance area that I mentioned earlier. U.S. equity bulls want consolidation or a minor pullback only, and would prefer to see the advdec line power right past about -200, while bears want to see a rollover from this significant Keltner resistance. See my 9:48:20 and 10:02:17 posts for background.

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 10:16:37 AM

This morning's bounce in the techs is weak and it looks corrective. So far I'm not seeing enough evidence that the bulls are going to carry the day here. We could see at least a morning of consolidation.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 10:15:32 AM

Kohls (KSS) $41.55 +1.66% Link ... exceeded its BEARISH vertical count of $44 on 01/03/08. Need bears to lock in gains into Valentines Day.

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 10:09:57 AM

Big push back to the upside here and SPX and DOW are testing yesterday's highs. The bulls need to keep this going but the downtrend lines are still resistance until they're broken.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 10:07:36 AM

December Retail Sales: Largest % Gainers/Decliners table Link

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 10:07:02 AM

For OEX traders, there's Keltner and trendline resistance at 661.50-661.60 on 15-mintue closes. Above that is likely significant resistance at 663.03 and 664.60 on 15-minute closes. Have profit-protecting plans for that area. What you want is to see minor pullbacks only once that is tested. The 9-ema is now at about 656.60 but is still climbing with the OEX. You would like to see any pullbacks find support on 15-minute closes at that 9-ema.

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 10:04:39 AM

The SPX produced a tentative 15-minute close above Keltner resistance from about 1397-1400. It's just tentative, though, and not too cheery yet. Next resistance is at 1409.01 but still rising. It's rising toward the 1416.40-1417.10 significant resistance, converging with it. Have profit-protecting plans for your short-term bullish trades in that zone, if it should be tested.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 10:02:57 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $126.90 -0.04% ... off lows of $126.30.

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 10:02:49 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Higher oil prices sent sales of U.S. wholesalers up 2.2% in November, the biggest gain in more than two years, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Inventories at wholesalers grew 0.6% in the month. With nominal sales rising much faster than inventories, the inventory-to-sales ratio fell to a record low 1.07 in November from 1.08 in October. The inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.17 a year ago.

The gain in wholesale sales was, in part, an illusion of inflation. Petroleum sales jumped 8.9% in the month, the biggest rise in two years. The figures are not adjusted for inflation.

The typical wholesaler has about 32.5 days' worth of sales on hand.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 10:02:11 AM

US November Wholesale Inventories +0.6% ... Consensus was +0.4%

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 10:02:17 AM

From a low of -1517 and close approach to the descending trendline mentioned in my 9:48:20 post, the advdec line has bounced hard to -1003, so the trendline has tentatively held again. From a Keltner standpoint, though, the advdec line needs to end this 15-minute period above -1250 to even begin to look as if it's stabilizing or slowing its descent. (It just did it.) If so, then watch for rollover potential or stalling potential in the line when the advdec line approaches -540 to -250. Those bullish U.S. equities want to see it power through that level instead or at least just consolidate there.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 10:01:31 AM

Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN) $12.00 -9.29% ... Expects a fourth-quarter loss of $239 million, or 65 cents a share. The Columbus, Ohio, holding company attributed the expected loss to charges and provisions totaling $1 a share in the latest period.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 10:00:26 AM

Hot Topic Inc. (HOTT) $4.36 -6.83% ... Reported December sales at stores open at least one year fell 6.2% from a year earlier. Analysts had estimated same-store sales to slide 6.5%. Sales in December totaled $123.1 million, down 6% from a year earlier, the specialty retailer said. It also lowered its fourth-quarter earnings outlook to a range of 25 cents to 29 cents a share from a previous estimate of 29 cents to 33 cents a share. Analysts are forecasting the retailer to report, on average, earnings of 29 cents a share on revenue of $232 million.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 9:59:21 AM

Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) $40.00, -7.82% ... Cut its 2007 earnings-per-share view to $3.97, below its previous forecast of $5, and said it expects fourth-quarter earnings of 60 cents a share. The McLean, Va., financial-holding company said the reduction was driven by increased provision expense and additional legal reserves established in the fourth quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 9:56:18 AM

S&P Monitoring Homebuilder Ratings On Future SFAS 109 Charges

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 9:55:26 AM

Apex Silver Mines (AMEX:SIL) $15.40 +0.26% ... SIL-BC $1.20 x $1.45

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 9:55:03 AM

The euro has shot higher this morning and the metals have also shot higher. It leaves the pullback in gold looking like a correction from Tuesday's overnight high so we may not have seen the high for gold yet.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 9:54:33 AM

iShares Silver (SLV) $156.78 +1.01% ... $15.67 spot.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 9:54:03 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $87.56 +1.16% ... $875.60 spot.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 9:53:17 AM

DJ- Euro Trades Above $1.4750

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 9:50:52 AM

One tentative sign for the short-term bulls: the SPX did manage a close at or slightly above its 15-minute 9-ema, with that now at about 1397.50. It's still tangled in potential Keltner resistance, though, at its current 1400 level (45-ema) and then at 1407.34. The stiffest resistance, however, from a Keltner standpoint, it at 1416-1417.47 on a 15-minute closing basis.

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 9:48:20 AM

This isn't trading information but just a benchmarking of something I'm observing. The advdec line is now approaching a descending trendline that I've had on my chart since 12/28. On 1/3, it popped above that trendline. It's since approached it twice from above, early on 1/7 and the late on 1/8, and it's bounced both times. Will it this time? The trendline is now at about -1750, I believe, if I'm eyeballing it. The advdec line is at -1421 as I type, having closely approached it. So, I'm watching for the possibility of a bounce in the advdec line sometime soon. If it does, that may produce a steadying or bounce in equity prices. If it falls beneath that trendline, I don't see next support until -2110 or so.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 9:46:42 AM

Affymetrix (AFFX) $21.17 -10.90% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 9:46:11 AM

Affymetrix, Illumina Settle Litigation ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 9:45:01 AM

Illumina (ILMN) $73.02 +20.79% ... suging.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2008 9:43:51 AM

IHOP Cut To Netural From Accumulate At C.L. King

IHOP $44.64 -5.16% ...

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 9:40:26 AM

Yesterday's late-day SPX climb pushed the SPX up into the 1406-1410 resistance band, but that might have been just an overrunning of resistance produced by the momentum and aided by some short-covering. Although it's natural to see a pullback and another attempt, that's not definitely guaranteed. As I said yesterday, you still have to factor in vulnerability to 1370-1375. That doesn't mean that it's a current target or that the SPX is definitely going there, but it does mean that the possibility hasn't been ruled out. You shouldn't hold onto bullish trades gone bad if your stops get hit.

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 9:38:41 AM

I saw the reverse head and shoulders on the US$ daily chart and really thought this market had seen it lows for a while. Then when it retraced, it retraced further than I expected and now it is not recovering anywhere near as fast as I think it should. So if it plans on breaking the swing high made on December 20th it better hurry up or I will not be so bullish on the US$. Link

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2008 9:35:58 AM

This SPX drop is straight down to the 15-minute 9-ema near 1396.75, not tested since the SPX sprang higher yesterday afternoon. Watch for the potential for this support to hold on this first 15-minute close. If you're bullish, that's what you want to happen. Below that, next Keltner short-term support is way back down near 1381.50-1383.

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 9:23:36 AM

Crude is breaking out of the upward channel and breaking through support. Gold and Crude usually trade in sync with on another (although not as closely as Gold and the US$) but lately they have broken that synchronization so I suspect Gold will follow Crude to get back in sync. Link

Keene Little : 1/10/2008 9:21:18 AM

Equities had a stead and somewhat choppy decline during the overnight hours. It looks like more or less a lack of buying instead of concerted selling. Still, the morning will start with a gap down and it will take a rally above yesterday's highs, and hold above, to turn the charts bullish.

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 9:18:08 AM

Here is the daily chart of Gold. The doji yesterday was a very good clue that this market would be taking a rest (retracement) and since retracements can be quite violent, this little selloff is nothing Goldbugs should worry about. Link

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 9:13:42 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures declined 1% to trade near $872 on Thursday, as traders locked in some gains after the precious metal's record-breaking run-up this week.

Gold for February delivery fell $9.70, or 1%, to $872 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"While gold's fundamentals remain very sound in the medium to long term, in the short term we may be overbought and thus we could experience a healthy short-term correction," said Mark O'Byrne, director at Gold and Silver Investments Ltd., in a research note.

On Wednesday, gold futures finished up $1.40 at $881.70 an ounce. Earlier in the session, gold soared to a new record high of $894.40 an ounce, beating the previous record of $883.80 an ounce set Tuesday.

Gold will likely find support at previous resistance levels around $840 to $850, O'Byrne said.

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 9:14:23 AM

I certainly expected the bulls to give a stronger showing overnight based on how strongly the bulls came back to the table late in the day yesterday. But these lower highs and lower lows mean the trend is down and the bears won the overnight battle. Link

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 8:54:49 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The latest data on claims for unemployment benefits painted a mixed picture of the nation's jobs market, with weekly initial filings dropping to a two-month low even as the smoothed average of continuing claims rose to a two-year high, showing a decline in layoffs alongside weak job growth.

The seasonally adjusted number of people filing for the first time for state unemployment benefits fell to 322,000, down 15,000, in the week ended Jan. 5, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

The 322,000 figure is the lowest seen since Nov. 3. Initial claims have fallen by a total of 35,000 over the past two weeks.

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 8:51:36 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shoppers rushing at the last minute to purchase Christmas presents or redeeming gift cards after the holiday season were likely not enough to help U.S. retailers cash in on a lackluster December, their largest sales months of the year.

U.S. retailers on Thursday are forecast to report a gain of about 1% in December sales at stores open at least a year, compared with a 3.3% gain a year earlier, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

ICSC lowered its forecast from an original estimate of 1.5% after witnessing "early month softness" in December, said Michael Niemira, its chief economist. A 1% gain would register the industry's weakest December since 2002, Niemira said.

Concerns about higher gasoline prices and food costs as well as declines in the credit and housing markets have reduced shoppers' mall trips and made them more conscious of their budgets, analysts said. Lack of must-have fashion items also didn't help to motivate buying, they said.

Retailers, while trying to keep inventory lean, may have been forced to give more discounts to clear unsold merchandise, pressuring profit margins.

Jane Fox : 1/10/2008 8:49:58 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Wall Street giants Citigroup and Merrill Lynch & Co. are both negotiating further capital injections from overseas investors as they continue to suffer from the credit market crisis, according to a published report Thursday.

Citigroup could get as much as $10 billion from foreign governments and Merrill Lynch is expected to receive $3 billion to $4 billion, with much of the cash coming from a Middle Eastern government investment fund, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Both firms are rushing to finalize the deals before they report earnings later in the month, which will likely include further losses stemming from their exposure to mortgage-related investments.

Citi is also expected to consider slashing its dividend in half in a move that would save it around $2.5 billion a year, the newspaper reported.

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