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Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2008 1:51:21 AM

e-mail from 7/16/2002 ... As you know, I'm a tracker things. Here I'd like to share with you an email I received way back in July 2002. The chart was actually saved with the name "Stool Pigeons On The Wire" Link

I'd like to run another contest here, but I know better. Can you guess what this "perma bear" was talking about?

Yep, the Fed and the carnage to come. Again ... 7/16/2002

Next day's email was ... 7/17/2002: Jeff, you're the best chartist I've ever seen. And a great trader, way better than I. In my very humble opinion, irrational exuberance is bidding on a tech sector sitting in a slow economy with no ability to issue anything more than positive guidance. The BPNDX is sending a clear signal, and I'm obeying by trading very cautiously, but I have to squint to find any reason beyond the BPNDX and the oversold ozzies to become bullish on the tech sector.

Thanks, I need that. :-)

What I try to get across to traders and investors is to FORGET what you BELIEVE. Trade what you OBSERVE.

Here's the $BPNDX dating WAY back to 1995. July 2002 would be a "red 7" between 2002-2003.

Now, on 12/30/2007, Jim forwards me this Link from the same "trader/investor" that emailed me on 7/16/02 and 7/17/02. Be very, very disciplined.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2008 1:24:24 AM

CME's Nov'10, Nov'11, Nov'12 Regional Housing Futures Table at this Link

While I believe (as do about 90% of market participants) that the MARKET is ALL KNOWING and sees the future ... not sure it sees more than 9-months out, but will want to monitor anyhow. Years from now it will be very, very educational.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2008 1:17:42 AM

CME's Feb'09, May'09, Aug'09, Nov'09 Regional Housing Futures Table at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2008 1:11:59 AM

CME's Feb'08, May'08, Aug'08, Nov'08 Regional Housing Futures table that I keep at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2008 12:26:19 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey (Table) that I track Link

I was thinking that last week's report and rebound was some "artificial gain" after some "artificial decline" during holiday period. Not so sure now.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2008 12:12:59 AM

A lot of refinances last week. May have been ignored by some.

Govt. index hits 15-month high!

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 10:39:26 PM

A subscriber wrote and asked for information on when Chairman Bernanke would be speaking tomorrow. I had mentioned that he would be speaking tomorrow, but the subscriber couldn't find a speech listed on the Federal Reserve's website. Neither could I, but Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to speak before the House Budget Committee on "The Near-Term Outlook for the U.S. Economy" at 10:00 am ET. Here's the schedule listing: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 10:13:14 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 10:06:34 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 10:03:51 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

For clarity in the EW pattern with little descending wedges I'm hoping we'll see the market chop its way a little lower tomorrow in order to finish the declines and set up rallies into next week and end of month (60-min charts):
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
COMP: Link
RUT: Link

And for perspective, this SPX daily chart shows what could play out into February if the short term wave count is correct: Link

OI Technical Staff : 1/16/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 6:02:59 PM

RGR $8.15 +9.24%, LFT $15.38 -9.04%, ARUN a bull's account $9.80 -14.78%

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 6:01:01 PM

SORC $2.16 +4.85% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 6:00:16 PM

ESMK $9.47 -7.06% ... young chart.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 5:59:12 PM

LDK 34.45 -5.84% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 5:58:50 PM

AIRM $45.48 +1.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 5:57:42 PM

EEB $47.29 -4.29% ... not bad.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 5:57:21 PM

Oh my ... FSLR -11.34% today.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 5:24:03 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 4:52:09 PM

Number of Public Bankruptcies Slightly Up In '07, 5th Lowest Ever, According To BankruptcyData.com

DJ (partial) - The number of publicly-traded companies filing for bankruptcy in 2007 was 78. This number reflects an increase from the 2006 figure of 66 but is way off the high of 263 bankruptcies recorded in 2001. The 2007 figure is the fifth lowest filing number since 1980--according to , a Boston-based website that tracks business bankruptcies.

The total pre-petition assets of publicly-traded companies in bankruptcy increased in 2007 to $70,525,653,392 in comparison to $22,257,549,333 in 2006. Although significant in comparison to 2006, the five largest filings were all in the mortgage and banking industry.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 4:36:07 PM

DIA goes out at $124.65.

IBM $101.63, XOM $86.53, BA $79.87, MO $77.91, MMM $77.30, UTX $71.04, PG $68.84, JNJ $68.31, CAT $64.27, KO $62.65

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 4:14:26 PM

That's often been good enough for me!

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 4:13:36 PM

Don't forget! Friday's is Op-Ex. OI subscribers on average think DIA settles $127.95 on Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 4:12:44 PM

DIA $124.71 ... should we close here, tomorrow's DAILY Pivot levels ... $122.74, $123.73, Piv= $124.92, $125.91, $127.10.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 4:01:31 PM

Swing trade SPECULATIVE Call Option Alert! for one (1) of the Dow Diamonds DIA Jan $126 Calls (DAW-AV) at the offer of $0.50. No stop, target $1.40.

DIA $124.62 -0.54% ...

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 4:00:04 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow.

8:30a.m. Dec Housing Starts. Expected: -5.0%. Previous: -3.7%.

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Jan 12 Week. Expected: +18K. Previous: -15K.

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 3:55:22 PM

So much for the gap-them-higher theory mentioned earlier. You should know, however, that unless the SPX is driven significantly lower in the close, the day's candle is still a potential reversal signal. No promises with "potential" reversal signals, as should be evident with a look at the one produced on 1/03/08, but at least know what you're seeing as you make end-of-day decisions.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 3:51:12 PM

I just noticed on the DOW chart I just posted--the key level to the upside (which would say the bottom is in) should read 12790 instead of 12931.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 3:47:19 PM

The updated DOW 60-min chart shows one more drop lower should do it. It should be accompanied by beaucoup bullish divergences and will hopefully tap the 12375 level for an excellent long play setup. Interestingly it could bottom by the end of the day tomorrow as I've depicted (where the bottom of the descending wedge crosses the bottom of the parallel down-channel). And you thought I was kidding when I said Bernanke will surprise the market with a rate cut pre-market Friday morning? Link

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 3:43:26 PM

Doji springing up from daily support for the SPX, at least for now. Here's the chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 3:34:44 PM

If the SPX were to finish the day anywhere above today's open, it will have created a daily candle that sprang up from support. If it closes above 1382.07, it will also be closing the day above daily Keltner support at that level. Usually, after such a day, the pattern is for either continued gains or a sideways movement, which could include sideways within today's total range. Anyway, that's the usual pattern, but by no means a given in this weak market.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 3:20:11 PM

Pfizer (PFE) $23.59 (unch) ... no triggers.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 3:19:18 PM

FRX finding a bid ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 3:17:17 PM

Fed's Beige Book (Nov'07) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 3:16:32 PM

Fed's Beige Book (Jan'07) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 3:14:59 PM

Fed's Beige Book (prior to 01/07/2008) Link

Was released at 02:00 PM EST

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 3:12:57 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 3:09:15 PM

The SPX just tested its 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1382.28. It's attempting a bounce from it, but it did come back and close that gap from about 30 minutes ago. Bulls need a strong finish here, but you're going to have a quandary on your hands if the SPX closes right at that 1395-1397 resistance zone. In fact, you have a quandary on your hands wherever the indices close. We've seen big overnight moves in the futures again lately.

Tonight is Japan's important January Tankan Survey, reported at 6:30 pm EST, I believe. This survey absolutely can be a market moving event in Japan, and it can impact the USDJPY. November's Industrial Capacity and Production will also be reported, but the Tankan should eclipse those two. Then, before the market opens tomorrow, we have December's Housing Starts and Building Permits.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 3:06:15 PM

I just drew in a small parallel down-channel on the COMP using a downtrend line along the lows on Jan 11th and 16th and attached the parallel to the high on Jan 14th (trying to determine where a 4th wave bounce might stop). Price just came up and stopped at the top of this channel. As I've mentioned a couple of times, there's still the possibility we've got one more leg down to finish the decline from Jan 10th. But a rally above 2441 would likely mean we've seen the low for now. Link

Tab Gilles : 1/16/2008 2:57:12 PM

Could be Keene....Ben like to play with those short the market.

He did cut just prior to the market open, I believe back in August?

It would be nice if we had for a 1/2 point cut inter-meeting and a 1/4 on FOMC. Along with a stimulus plan around the State of the Union.

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 2:54:21 PM

Oh, Keene (see Keene's 2:49:15 post), that bear frying has happened a number of times lately, hasn't it, including one very painful opex week for many traders.

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 2:53:04 PM

Tab, Jim was thinking this weekend that Chairman Bernanke might even want to have that rate cut announced already by the time he speaks tomorrow morning. I don't want to put words in Jim's mouth, and I think he was just kicking around that idea.

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 2:51:43 PM

The SPX is charging right up to next Keltner resistance at 1394.42 and then 1396.93 on 15-minute closes. While nothing is guaranteed in this market, it looks as if Tom Williams' explanation of that tactic of big money (see my 2:35:35 post) might be working. He says if they've bought at lower levels and want prices to go higher, but don't want to spend huge amounts of money to do it, they gap prices above a key resistance level, enticing shorts and new bulls into helping them drive prices higher. If that's so, you must now factor in the possible intentions of big money to keep prices supported, at least over the short term. If you've been in a bearish position for a while, don't let a bounce get too big for you, whatever "too big" is in regard to your position, your entry level and time period, and the amount tied up in a trade.

If you're a new bull, you're glad to see this happening, but you still want to maintain good account management. Over the next hour, if not stopped out by market action, you're going to have to decide if you want to hold overnight, given the market uncertainty.

Tab Gilles : 1/16/2008 2:51:20 PM

Celgene (CELG) $55.78 +$2.30 (4.32%)

Nice move here...

Ready to test 50-ma Link Link Link

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 2:49:15 PM

Tab, I was thinking Bernanke might do a surprise rate cut pre-market Friday morning. That way he'd fry those who are short the SPX by getting the SPX to settle MUCH higher than Thursday's closing price.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 2:46:00 PM

With the DOW futures down well over 100 points last night following INTC's earnings, how many of you thought we'd see the DOW up +100 points today? As I mentioned in last night's Wrap, I have no idea why INTC in particular but I swear the best trade is to fade the after-hours INTC reaction. Almost without fail it works.

Tab Gilles : 1/16/2008 2:43:25 PM

Linda, I wouldn't be surprised if Bernanke does an inter-meeting rate cut just before the market close on Friday...going into a 3-day weekend. Another key date on the calendar is the 28th - State of the Union! Followed by the FOMC meeting on the 29th & 30th.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 2:41:59 PM

Two equal legs up now for the bounce off this morning's low for the COMP is at 2441, right at its downtrend line. Makes for a good upside target and a potential shorting opportunity for a pullback. There is still the possibility we're going to get one more new low (or a test of the low) this week before a stronger rally.

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 2:38:13 PM

Just to clarify my 2:35:35 post, Tom Williams says nothing about Keltner channels. I don't think, in fact, that he's a big fan of anything beyond trendlines in the way of technical analysis. When I said that this is a tactic he mentions, I meant merely the process of gapping prices above resistance, not above Keltner resistance in particular.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 2:36:31 PM

The RUT, which had been holding up better yesterday afternoon and which I suspected could lead the charge higher, has now broken its downtrend line from December 26th, the first to do so. This is a bullish sign even. The next one to hit potential resistance at its downtrend line will be the COMP at 2440 (currently trading at 2420).

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 2:35:35 PM

Between the close of one 15-minute period and the open of another, the SPX just vaulted over the Keltner resistance I'd been listing. According to Tom Williams of MASTER THE MARKETS, this is a favorite tactic of big money that has bought at lower levels and doesn't want to spend a lot of money to keep prices moving higher. They'll spring prices above resistance, causing shorts to cover and new bulls to jump on the bandwagon. Let's see if that happens this time, too. New bulls want 1384.50 to hold as support now on 15-minute closes. Watch for and prepare for potential resistance at 1392.50, of course, and then at Keltner resistance at 1395.40 and 1397.20.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 2:31:58 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy grew at a modest pace in most regions of the nation in late November and December, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday.

In its Beige Book report on the economy, the Fed noted that labor markets remain tight in most areas despite the sharp rise in the unemployment rate to 5% reported by the Labor Department in December.

"Economic activity increased modestly during the survey period of mid-November through December, but at a slower pace compared with the previous survey," the Beige Book reported. Of 12 Fed banking districts, five reported slow or slowing activity, five reported modest or slightly increasing activity, and two said conditions were mixed.

On balance, the Beige Book paints a slightly more upbeat view of the economy than most other recent reports have, particularly on the labor markets. There is little in the report that indicates an urgent need for aggressive Fed action to lower interest rates, as analysts and markets now expect.

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 2:26:10 PM

Just a thought to keep in the backs of your minds: Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on the economy tomorrow morning, and there will be a Q&A session, I believe.

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 2:25:16 PM

In the previous 15-minute period, we saw the typical lunchtime-lull cross to the other side of the smallest Keltner channel. What was atypical was the timing: it didn't actually cross during the lunchtime lull but afterward. Bears were not able to keep prices lower, so a test of 1384-1385 Keltner resistance may be next. Bulls need a 15-minute close above 1384.94, confirmed by a move above 1392.50. Unfortunately, possibly strong Keltner resistance is just above that, at 1395.44 and then 1397.13. Yesterday's most-of-the-day consolidation meant that a lot of potential roadblocks to a rally had time to be erected.

Tab Gilles : 1/16/2008 2:15:41 PM

Weekly EIA Report Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 2:17:44 PM

EIA: 01/06/06 to 09/08/06 Inventory Data at this Link

And then today's data Link (note Gasoline 2/09/07-3/30/2007)

Where at some point in time (usually Feb-early Mach), refiners "shut down" for switch of heating fuels to driving fuels.

As outlined for VLO being one of my "Top 5 Bull" picks for 2008, I outlined a couple different strategies, BASED ON MARKET CONDITIONS.

The strategy that I feel best at this point is to trade PARTIAL, but at this point, look to SELL OUT THE MONEY PUT, at the historical seasonality, where I would be WILLING and ABLE (if exercised) to take POSESSION of the stock.

We SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT (we are NOT at this point) in the CRACK SPREAD ahead of the "shut down" and "switch over" to summer driving blends.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 2:10:21 PM

No follow through in either direction right now and it's leaving a bunch of corrective 3-wave moves in both directions. Too choppy to follow right now. Put your mouse down and sit back and watch for now.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 2:04:02 PM

If we get another leg down now (starting as I type), two equal legs down from the mid-day high will be at SPX 1369.48 (ES 1374.25) and DOW 12444 (YM 12469).

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 2:01:50 PM

Let's see if the market reacts much to the Beige Book coming out.

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 2:01:37 PM

SPX bulls are not getting what they want. The SPX is consolidating along a flattening 15-minute 9-ema, not climbing and keeping the 9-ema rising. That congestion zone that I was mentioning earlier proved too tough for the SPX to bulldoze through. Nearest support is at 1369.60-1371.95 and nearest resistance is near 1385-1385.30. RSI is just below 50, in a neutral zone. No predictions here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 1:53:22 PM

Selling long some DUG $42.82 +5.59% in client/personal accounts today at 150-day SMA. Entered 01/07/08, but observing 11/27/07 action.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 1:44:40 PM

ENRON HOLDERS WHO SUED TO GET AVERAGE OF $6.79/SHARE

DJ- Investors who sued the company more than six years ago will receive an average of $6.79 per share for the common stock they owned. Those who owned preferred stock will get $168.50 a share.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 1:43:43 PM

BOEING PUSHES BACK FIRST 787 DELIVERY TO 2009

DJ- Boeing will move the first flight of its 787 Dreamliner jet program, already six months behind schedule, to the end of the 2Q and says the first delivery now won't happen until 2009. Delay isn't expected to have a 'significant' impact on 2008 earnings.

BA $80.28 +3.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 1:42:50 PM

NET FOREIGN BUYS OF LONG-TERM US SECURITIES FALLS

DJ- Net foreign acquisition of long-maturity U.S. securities totals $79.7 billion in November, following purchases of $101.5 billion in October, according to the Treasury Dept.

(see also 01:32:35)

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 1:41:29 PM

TRAN 4,239.55 +0.51% ... 150-day SMA 4,838, 200-day SMA 4,909.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 1:40:27 PM

AMR SWINGS TO 4Q LOSS ON FUEL COSTS

DJ- American Airlines swings to a loss of $69 million, or 28c a share, a year earlier, due in part to fuel costs and challenging weather. Revenue rises to $5.68 billion.

AMR $13.44 +1.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 1:39:36 PM

CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS FOCUS IN ON STIMULUS PACKAGE

DJ- Despite the bipartisan agreement on the need for a stimulus package, putting together a legislative package could be difficult as Democrats seek tax rebates and assistance to low-income families while Republicans push for extension of current tax cuts.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 1:38:19 PM

AMBAC DROPS ON 4Q LOSS VIEW, DIVIDEND CUT

DJ- Shares slide 27% after bond insurer unveils plan to strengthen its capital base by issuing at least $1 billion in equity and equity-linked securities, as it expects a $5.4 billion pretax write-down in 4Q and will cut its dividend by two-thirds.

ABK $15.44 -26.96% ... new 52-weeker ... very low volume.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 1:38:40 PM

Dang it out at 12531.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 1:38:57 PM

Dancing with stars has nothing on us, we are Dancing with the Markets.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 1:36:33 PM

SCHWAB 4Q NET FALLS 34%; REVENUE JUMPS 23%

DJ- Charles Schwab's 4Q net falls to $308 million, or 26c a share. Earnings from continuing operations, which exclude the impact of U.S. Trust, are also 26c a share. Analysts predicted earnings of 27c a share. Revenue rises to $1.34 billion.

SCHW $22.73 +1.20% ...

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 1:36:33 PM

Looks like 12508-12507 is support so put your limit order to get you out here.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 1:34:33 PM

Actually I would want a little out of this trade and would put my stop at 12531.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 1:34:26 PM

WELLS FARGO NET FALLS 38%, HURT BY RESERVE BUILD

DJ- Earnings fall to $1.36 billion, or 41c a share, even with analyst views. Net includes a 27c a share hit from adding $1.4 billion reserve for credit losses. Sees higher losses on loans in 2008, a year described as 'challenging.'

WFC $27.20 +2.68% ...

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 1:34:01 PM

Had a nice little 3-wave pullback but now it's turned into more of a 5-wave pullback. That could indicate a deeper retracement after the next bounce. Take nothing for granted here since the overall price action could be as I warned about earlier--choppy and full of whipsaws.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 1:33:47 PM

WE have made a low of 12508 so within 6 ticks of profit and here once again we need to dance the dance and say do I take profits here or wait for the 12502. In any case stop should be at least at breakeven. I will be waiting for the full 12502.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 1:33:29 PM

FLORIDA SUSPENDS ALLSTATE LICENSE

DJ- Baising the stakes in the battle between insurance regulators and property insurers in the influential state of Florida, the state's insurance commissioner suspends Allstate's license to sell home and auto insurance policies there.

ALL $51.07 -0.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 1:32:35 PM

NET FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOWS $149.9B IN NOVEMBER

DJ- Net foreign capital inflows into the U.S. jump 62% in November, reaching their highest level since January 2006. The boost signals a revival in foreign demand for U.S. securities and is a stark turnaround from August and September.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 1:31:54 PM

SAP $49.09 +0.49% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 1:31:35 PM

ORACLE TO BUY BEA SYSTEMS IN $8.5B DEAL

DJ- Oracle agrees to buy the business software firm for $19.375 a share in cash. Deal is valued at $8.5 billion, or $7.2 billion net of BEA's cash on hand. Oracle sees buy adding 1c to 2c a share to its adjusted earnings in the first full year after closing.

ORCL $21.65 +1.59% ...

BEAS $18.56 +19.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 1:30:19 PM

JPMORGAN 4Q NET FALLS 34% ON $1.3B WRITE-DOWN

DJ- Financial-services giant's net income drops to $2.97 billion, or 86c a share, on a $1.3 billion write-down on its subprime positions as home-equity and subprime loan portfolios perform worse than expected. Revenue increases 7% to $17.38 billion. Analysts, on average, expected earnings of 93c a share on revenue of $17.05 billion. Credit-loss provisions more than double to $2.54 billion.JPM $41.90 +6.96% ...

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 1:28:17 PM

Once we break 12516 lower the stop to 12541.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 1:25:19 PM

This is the dance I do daily; where do I put my stop once I am into profit. This is the part of trading that I don't think can be written into a rule set. It comes with knowing a market and how it trades. I get it right sometimes and other times I am very wrong.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 1:22:20 PM

Well into profit so I want to lower the stop but I cannot find a clear level to use. We are too close to put it to breakeven yet enough into profit that you want to lower your risk some. Let's put it to 12556, not much but some.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 1:17:55 PM

We are now short at 12534 with a stop at 12566. Target is a 1:1 ratio to the risk so at 12502.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 1:15:37 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 1:12:23 PM

Watch for a pullback to SPX 1374 (ES 1379) for support and an opportunity to buy the pullback for another run higher.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 1:03:40 PM

From a very short term perspective, watching this morning's bounce and now a little pullback, ideally we'll see the pullback become a 3-wave move (so far it looks like only wave-a of an expected a-b-c move down) that retraces something in the neighborhood of 50%-62% of this morning's rally. That should then set up a rally to new daily highs so watch this pullback for a buying opportunity.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 12:58:51 PM

So we have a long at 12602 and a short sitting at 12534.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 12:57:39 PM

Leave the short at 12534 with the same stop

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 12:52:51 PM

The SPX has risen high enough to begin turning its 15-minute 9-ema higher. It's been testing that 9-ema and finding support on tests of it, on 15-minute closes. So far, so good, but the SPX has now moved into the bottom of that congestion zone from yesterday. It's going to take a strong thrust up through that congestion zone, confirmed by sustained 15-minute closes above 1386.15 as well as a high above 1392.50, to break above that congestion. A buy program that prompts shorts to cover could provide the needed thrust, but shorts haven't been too ready to cover in this environment, have they?

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 12:43:47 PM

Let's try a YM long at 12602. STop will be 12559.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 12:37:01 PM

Lucky we didn't get triggered on the short from 12534. A trade that you miss that turns into a loser is just as good as a winner.

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 12:37:55 PM

The SPX is positive by a few cents as I type. On the last little pullback, it found support on a 15-minute close at its 9-ema, and it needs to do so again if it's to maintain strength to challenge next resistance, at 1382.42 and then at 1386.23 on 15-minute closes. The 9-ema is now at 1377.23.

The next tasks that short-term bulls want are for the SPX to push up through at least one of those resistance levels, and to push up quickly enough to keep turning that 9-ema higher. What you want to see eventually is the SPX bouncing from a rising 9-ema.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 12:36:39 PM

The semis have bounced hard off this morning's low and might have put in a tradeable bottom. SMH dipped a little below the downside Fib projection at 27.67 (5th wave = 1st wave) and the wave count is looking good for the completion of the leg down from July. It should set up a rally to correct that decline before turning back down into the summer. Link

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 12:26:39 PM

Stop on this trade is 12566 and target is the 1:1 risk to reward ratio.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 12:26:28 PM

After a minor bounce off this morning's low INTC needs another minor new low to finish a 5-wave move down from Monday's high. It might not happen until tomorrow. At that point a larger 5-wave move down from the December high would also be complete and INTC will be ready for a large rally to correct the decline from December. A downside target in the 19.00-19.50 range should set up the long play into February.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 12:25:46 PM

I see YM short at 12534. I will not be taking this trade however because I have my quota for the day. The money tree in the back yard has given me all I need for the day. LOL

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 12:22:16 PM

This morning's bounce is still just a 3-wave move and that leaves it as a corrective bounce so far. If we see a little consolidation here followed by another push higher then it will create a 5-wave bounce and that would be impulsive and indicate a bottom is in for now. Buying the pullback following a 5-wave move would be the suggested play. But for now be wary of another deep pullback.

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 12:12:13 PM

Those in short-term bullish trades on the SPX want to see the SPX maintain 15-minute closes above the 9-ema, now just under 1376. If in those positions, I'd be particularly watchful of how the SPX acts around 1387-1392.50, as that pretty much defines yesterday's chop zone.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 12:12:26 PM

UTX's Bar chart with H/S top pattern (ascending neckline). Using retracement for pattern objective (place top at head, 50% as neckline) to get pattern objective result at 0%. Link

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 12:08:59 PM

The USDJPY has continued charging higher. It's currently at 107.48, charging up toward potential resistance near 107.80.

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 12:06:42 PM

Here's what I've been seeing on the SPX's 15-minute Keltner chart, for those of you who want to put a picture with my words: Link

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 11:59:51 AM

Those trying a bullish trade or just hoping for at least a short-term recovery in our markets want to see the SPX close this current 15-minute period above 1376.40 and maintain levels above that.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 11:56:59 AM

Nice bounce. Two equal legs up off this morning's low for SPX is at 1380.17 so watch to see how it handles that level.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 11:54:59 AM

UTX's PnF Chart at this Link

Can see the "bearish triangle" (MINIMUM 5 columns of alternating X, O with lower highs and higher lows, resolution to DOWNSIDE with "sell signal" at $74).

Bearish vertical count column still under construction. Would take a 3-box reversal higher to complete the column.

PINK dots would be the "bearish resistance trend" only if the "bullish support trend" and RED dots are violated.

Will show bar chart in a second.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 11:46:24 AM

It's still very early to tell what kind of bounce we're getting (in hopes it will provide some clues as to what's next) but so far it looks corrective and that could indicate we haven't seen the low for the day yet (although one more low would look good for finishing the wave count to the downside for now). The other possibility, as I've been warning about, is that we're simply going to see a very choppy rally before getting a final low later this week. Stay cautious either way.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 11:45:27 AM

VIX.X 23.58 +1.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 11:45:11 AM

VXO.X 26.11 (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 11:44:46 AM

Swing trade put alert! ... for one (1) of the United Tech UTX May $70 Puts (UTX-QN) at the offer of $4.20. No stop for now, target $61.00 in the underlying.

UTX $70.75 -0.85% ...

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 11:37:33 AM

SPX support looking as if it's firming now from 1364.75-1365. Firming support does not mean that it won't be tested again, but short-term bulls would prefer to have the SPX either trade sideways here at the 9-ema it's currently testing just under 1374 or else charge up to 1378 next resistance and only then come back to test the 9-ema's support. SPX at 1373.11 as I type.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 11:36:00 AM

Hopefully John is saving up his money. (John is the fellow with whom I have a bet that Gold will reach $850 before $1000). Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 11:34:27 AM

iShares Silver (SLV) $157.07 -0.80% ... 60-minute interval chart (updated) at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 11:30:46 AM

Here is the chart of the US$ showing the very nice bounce off support. A bearish pattern like the head and shoulders that does not confirm is considered bullish but we have to break the swing high from January 10th before we can say it did not confirm. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 11:27:07 AM

SLV $156.24 -1.32% ... bulls should cut back to 1/4 positions on close/trade BELOW $155.50.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 11:23:08 AM

BIG move in currencies today--euro is down and the metals also are down hard. The gold short from yesterday is looking a little better now.

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 11:19:02 AM

The TRAN finally dipped, but to a higher Keltner level than the SPX. That support, now at 4187.04, held on 15-minute closes, and the TRAN is now attempting to push higher again, now being just a few points beneath yesterday's close. The TRAN is at 4209.72 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 11:18:59 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 11:17:46 AM

The USDJPY has broken above that descending trendline that I mentioned earlier. It's at a new day's high, at 107.09 as I type. If the USDJPY's performance has the same correspondence that it's had over the last few years for the U.S. equities, something in question, and if it maintains values above about 106.84, this is short-term bullish for U.S. equities. There are a couple of "if" statements there, but just be aware that there's some improvement in the USDJPY at least.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 11:17:35 AM

Keene anytime you want to come over to the dark side I will be here waiting. In other words I will help anyone I can if they want to get started with Tradestation. I have used it for years and do support calls for software I run on it.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 11:13:52 AM

QCharts did start quotes back up after about a 15 minute gap (which is still on the charts). Reliable eSignals servers? Ha! Not from what I've been seeing. I was having no more problems before eSignal acquired QCharts.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 11:11:18 AM

Hit target - love trades like that!!!

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 11:09:55 AM

Raise the stop to 12434 now that we are into profit.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 11:09:29 AM

Now long from 12466 with a stop at 12419.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 11:08:22 AM

If you have a brokerage account with TS your charts are $99/mo. If you do more than 10 futures trades a month then charts are free.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 11:07:23 AM

Tradestation!!!

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 11:06:21 AM

Are you getting bad quotes on Qcharts? I am. I have changed feeds several times and the quotes don't match my brokerage account or the TV. I'm getting very tired of Qcharts. Is there any company I could change to that has such good charts?

My quotes also just stopped updating and even the Santa Clara server is not updating my prices. It was supposed to be better after eSignal acquited QCharts but as far as I'm concerned they've screwed it up each step of the way. I'm tired of the problem as well and am starting my search for an alternative. I may consider TradeStation more seriously. I will not use eSignal.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 11:05:33 AM

This trade will not have a 1:1 risk to reward because I don't have a lot of confidence in the upside so target will be 12490.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 11:04:20 AM

Or at least pare down the number of contracts.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 11:04:08 AM

Stop just under daily lows so if that is too much risk for you then don't take the trade.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 11:03:41 AM

I will take YM long at 12466.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 11:03:30 AM

S&P futures are making new daily lows but the VIX is not making new daily highs. This is all suggesting that we may be making a bottom here.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 11:02:39 AM

AD line hit a low of -546 and is now at -463 so certainly not as bearish as yesterday.

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 11:01:52 AM

At 106.84, the USDJPY is challenging a descending trendline that's been in place since about 8:00 last Thursday evening. That trendline now crosses at about 106.84, I believe, with today's high at 106.90. So, sustained values above 106.90 would violate that descending trendline and show the first improvement in the short-term tenor for the USDJPY. I'm not sure how much impact that has on U.S. equity performance any longer (Will anyone currently want to put borrowed yen to use buying U.S. equities?), but that might be worth watching.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 11:01:15 AM

On the DOW's 60-min chart I showed a bounce and then final low to finish its decline later this week which would then set up a rally. The SPX 60-min chart shows a possible wave count that calls the current leg down as the last one before setting up the rally. Whether we get one more up-down sequence or finish the decline here is the question. I think betting on further downside is the riskier play. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 10:58:02 AM

GLD $86.55 -1.63% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 10:57:32 AM

SLV $156.65 -1.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 10:57:11 AM

DJ- Euro Falls Below $1.47 As Lower Oil Prices Boost Dollar

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 10:56:11 AM

With SPX Keltner support now hit on the 15-minute chart, it's time to keep those profit-protecting plans in mind for your bearish trades. It's always possible for a breakdown situation to occur, as Keltners were developed for the purpose of identifying such situations. But targets are also often potential support. Potential support now at 1364.97 on 15-minute closes; potential resistance now at 1375.20 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 10:54:57 AM

EIA: US Gross Inputs, Crude Oil Inputs, Ref. Op. Capacity, % Utilization of Op. Capacity Table at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 10:53:13 AM

SPX target is now just under 1365 and is being hit on the 15-minute chart. Yesterday, I kept worrying about whether that target would be reached (then near 1367) because of the TRAN's relative strength, but I said then that Keltners had proven right before, and they certainly seem to have been this time. I "thought" there was support in the 1384 zone and again at 1370-1375, but the Keltners at first showed no support at all in those zones and then light support only developing. I've grown to trust Keltners enough that I would have believed in that downside target more strongly except that I've also found that the SPX, OEX and Dow don't tend to go too far in one direction without the TRAN at least going along, if not leading.

I guess the financials have changed that pattern for now. Because the TRAN is a gauge of the economy as well as how hard crude prices are hitting, I'm not going to discount it completely, though.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 10:51:48 AM

SPX has now dropped below the August low near 1370 and is close to the bottom of its parallel down-channel at 1363 (which would be a small break of the March 2007 low near 1364).

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 10:47:38 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell on Wednesday for a second day as the dollar rose against a basket of other major currencies, reducing the appeal of gold as an investment alternative.

Gold futures for February delivery dropped $12.6, or 1.4%, to $890 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange in mid-morning trading. On Tuesday, it closed down 80 cents at $902.6.

The dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, rose for the first time in five days, up 0.1% at 75.655. Dollar-denominated gold tends to move in the opposition direction of the greenback.

"There has been a reversal of recent trends and the dollar has strengthened and oil and commodities have sold off from overbought conditions," said Mark O'Byrne, analyst at Gold and Silver Investments Ltd. "Corrections in most markets were expected as recent movements had been sharp."

Gold had been on the rise for five days through Monday, and surged to an all-time high of $916.1 an ounce on Tuesday, more than $50 higher than last Monday's closing.

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 10:46:42 AM

I show the SPX slipping beneath the rising trendline off the 3/14/07 and 8/16/07 lows. Those hoping that our markets are going to turn around certainly want it to be done by today's close. This sign is just another of the many troubling signs we've seen lately, adding to the "not since 2003" varieties with more recent developments. I haven't been sure the SPX will meet the downside target on the 15-minute Keltner charts, but I have other charts that say that the SPX has already set much lower targets. For that reason, I'm pitting any expectations for a relief bounce against the background of possible continued weakness, so trading a bounce expectation would be a countertrend trade in my eyes. For now, though, we must keep in mind the possibility that potential support in the 1363-1367 zone from various sources and of various types might hold if tested. If in bearish positions, know whether you plan to widen your stops (if you think there's more downside and wanted to stay in for a longer-term trade, but expect some volatility at that level) or narrow them (if you're in a short-term trade only, are on the lookout for a relief bounce, and want to be taken out near the low).

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 10:46:23 AM

Mark is a fellow who used to write for the Market Monitor and is a very good technician so I always listen to what he has to say. Here is his latest comments.

Bear flaggish looking bounces off the lows. This is about as weak a market as I've seen since the internet bubble popped but with the 1363.98 March swing lows just below I don't see us blowing past that level, especially with yesterday's volume washout. I'm sure a 10:1 down volume day has failed to produce a reversal somewhere in the past but I can't remember it happening. Yesterday was better than 12:1 so I'm still looking for a tradable bounce sometime today. Maybe they need to scare the daylights out of everyone first and suck in as many bears as possible. When the bounce finally starts it could be swift and brutal if you're on the wrong side of it. The tough part will be slogging through the SPX 1384-92 area of congestion, where the market traded for most of the day yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 10:44:27 AM

EIA: Crude Oil, Total Gasoline, Tot. Distillate, Diesel and Kerosene Inventory Table at this Link

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 10:40:17 AM

There's nothing bullish about the bounce over the past 30 minutes. It looks like it will head lower this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 10:38:22 AM

SPR added 1.52 million barrels.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 10:36:09 AM

U.S. gasoline inventories up 2.2 mln barrels in latest week

U.S. distillate stocks up 1.1 mln barrels in latest week

U.S. crude inventories up 4.3 mln barrels in latest week

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 10:35:27 AM

SPX Keltner support is trying to firm up near 1371.42. (Sorry for the anthropomorphisms, you who are grimacing at them, but that's the quickest way to describe the action.) However, until and unless the SPX begins sustaining 15-minute closes above a Keltner line currently at 1382.14 and especially the 9-ema currently at 1378.58, not even the short-term bearish tenor has changed.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 10:35:14 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- J.P. Morgan Chase said Wednesday its fourth-quarter profit fell 34%, driven down by a $1.3 billion write-down of subprime assets and deteriorating performance in its home equity business, and a big drop in investment-banking activity.

Net income dropped 34% to $2.97 billion, or 86 cents a share, from $4.53 billion, or $1.26 a share a year earlier, as the company recorded a $1.3 billion write-down on its subprime positions.

Most analysts expect subprime-related exposure will show up on most banks' balance sheets for at least another six months, as the housing market continues to implode.

J.P. Morgan shares rose 0.9% in pre-open trading to $39.53. The stock closed Tuesday down $2.19, or 5.3%, at $39.17.

The bad news may keep coming: both Merrill Lynch & Co., the biggest U.S. brokerage, and Bank of America, the country's second-largest bank, are expected to report record losses when they report earnings later this week.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 10:35:04 AM

EIA: Crude Oil Stockpiles up 4.2M barrels

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 10:33:19 AM

SPX has not hit its target from the Head and Shoulders pattern yet but I think there is a very good chance it will, maybe not this week but probably this month. I have sure started to grow bear claws these last few weeks. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 10:32:34 AM

CLB Alert! $114.00

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 10:32:11 AM

EIA: Gasoline Stockpiles up 2.2M barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 10:29:57 AM

VLO $54.65 -0.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 10:29:35 AM

EIA due out in about 2 minutes ...

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 10:26:58 AM

Once again today, the TRAN is confounding me. It's just not showing the same degree of weakness that other indices are showing. In fact, it shot into positive territory briefly this morning, only to drop back toward yesterday's closing value. It's essentially be trading sideways to sideways/down since about noon yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 10:21:13 AM

BIDU $302.43 -4.95% ... options have been priced VERY expensive in my opinion for weeks.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 10:20:51 AM

Linda I was wondering why I hadn't got an email from you yet!

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 10:20:15 AM

UZK-NI $5.30 x $5.50.

Linda Piazza : 1/16/2008 10:18:53 AM

Here's the story. It's time to walk the dogs this morning before the market opens. I step into the garage to get their leashes, turn around, and find that I've locked myself out of my house. Of course, this is one of the weeks that my semi-retired husband is working out of town. My neighborhood has only twelve houses. I finally find a neighbor who has not yet left for work, but it turns out that the pet sitter I'd planned to call, since she has a key, isn't listed in the phone book. And of course her card is in my locked house.

Anyway, I'm finally at my office. I'm trying to get caught up. With the SPX testing the 1370-1375 zone that I (and others) have been mentioning as potential support, the 15-minute Keltner charts still show a lower target this morning, as they did all day yesterday. The SPX's short-term potential downside Keltner target has now drifted down to 1365.78. Don't count on it being met, but do factor in vulnerability to that level as you're making decisions and do plan a profit-protecting strategy for a test of that area if you're in bearish positions and that test occurs.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 10:17:25 AM

Getting the pullback to flush out weak holders and test the lows but I think they'll hold. But if the futures drop below last night's overnight lows it could get nasty.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 10:17:21 AM

Sohu.com (SOHU) alert! $$42.17 -12.01% ... shoot ..

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 10:00:18 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 9:53:16 AM

Got the quick spike down in the techs (still down but off the low) and they too would look best with another bounce back up and then one more new low after that to set up next week's rally: Link

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 9:50:29 AM

Quick update on the DOW's 60-min chart to show what could play out this week--perhaps a rally back up to the 12600 area before a drop down to the 12400 area which would finally set up a nice rally into February (at least this is what I hope sets up): Link

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 9:44:21 AM

Comment from Mark, "Still looking for a bounce today after yesterday's volume washout."

Looks like Mark may be right. Link

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 9:44:21 AM

While INTC is in the hurt locker (-11%) and after being so negative overnight, ES and YM are essentially back to the flat line and the DOW and SPX are in the green. Almost never fails after an INTC report.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 9:41:08 AM

Having said that about the H&S pattern on the US dollar, my daily chart shows the potential for a new low: Link

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 9:38:48 AM

The only trouble with a H&S pattern at the bottom of a decline is that it's not an accurate pattern. They're more effective at the top of a rally.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 9:22:58 AM

Here is the chart of the US$. It is testing support, which is also the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern. If this market breaks support then that should put some rocket boosters under Gold. Link

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 9:22:18 AM

Yes, I think the US dollar will find favor in 2008 as the global economy shrinks and people get worried. Whether it's got one more new low before it rallies is the question in my mind.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 9:21:00 AM

So Keene you think the US$ will rally?

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 9:20:44 AM

Equity futures got a nice lift after selling off from the 8:30 economic reports. I wouldn't be surprised to see the overnight drubbing get reversed higher this morning but I'm still thinking it could get whippy.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 9:20:24 AM

Well then Keene I guess I will be a whole $5.00 richer then. Smile.

Keene Little : 1/16/2008 9:19:14 AM

Jane, I'm betting gold will hit $600 before it hits $1000.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 9:18:37 AM

Oil is now testing a 61.80% retracement of the rally from $85.00/bl to $100/bl. Gold/Crude/US$ relationship will reassert itself at some point but it is taking a lot longer than I anticipated. Next up chart of the US$. Link

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 9:13:40 AM

I'm waiting for Gold to get back to at least $850.00 so I can get back on board. I have a bet with a fellow at my gym; he says Gold will hit $1000 before it hits $850 again. It will be interesting to see who wins. Link

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 9:11:43 AM

Taking into consideration the INTC disappointed and the CPI report disappointed, I think the overnight session doesn't look all that bad. All markets are now pressing up against overnight highs. Link

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 9:07:11 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Oracle Corp. said Wednesday it would acquire BEA Systems Inc., a company it has pursued since last summer, after raising its initial offer for the software developer.

Oracle agreed to lift its offer to $19.375 a share in cash, compared to the company's original bid last October of $17 a share. BEA had been holding out for $21 a share.

The new proposal reflects a premium of 24% over BEA's closing price on Tuesday of $15.58. The deal also values BEA at $7.2 billion, up from Oracle's initial bid of $6.7 billion.

Jane Fox : 1/16/2008 9:00:34 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- U.S. consumer prices soared at their fastest rate in almost two decades last year as higher energy, food and medical bills took a toll on consumers, suggesting that the economy faces a stagflationary mix of slower economic growth and rising price pressures.

Underlying prices that strip out food and energy prices crept higher at the end of the year as well, suggesting some second-round effects from higher energy and food prices.

Still, the inflation data aren't alarming enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from carrying out a fourth-straight interest rate reduction later this month amid signs that the housing slump has spread to the broader economy.

The consumer price index rose 0.3% in December, the Labor Department said Wednesday, down from November's 0.8% increase. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, advanced 0.2%. The data largely matched Wall Street forecasts.

Unrounded, the CPI rose 0.283% last month. The core CPI advanced 0.242% unrounded.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 3:16:52 AM

BA $77.86, but nearing its BEARISH vertical count of $75.00. UTX set to report on 1/23/08.

Jeff Bailey : 1/16/2008 3:14:31 AM

There's a good look'n one. UTX $71.36 ... Looks a little "head and shoulder toppy" too. Right shoulder grew a tad into the ear. Now a bearish triangle on 01/08/08 at $74.00, break of ascending neckline.

See 12/06/07 MM at 10:59:58.

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