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Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2008 12:19:08 AM

Tonight's "Mad Money" had James Cramer issuing some very bearish scenarios near-term if a mortgage insurer or two were to go bankrupt in the near-term.

The most DANGEROUS trade I have seen mentioned is to be SHORT GOLD futures.

If something "bad" were to happen a PUT OPTION on a gold equity may be the lesser of two evils as losses limited with the option should the gold trade turn against the bear.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2008 12:06:34 AM

Forest Labs (FRX) $40.97 +2.09% ... weekly interval bar chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 11:53:38 PM

Biiiiig volume in Forest Labs (FRX) $40.97 +2.09% this week. 6-month closing high. Pullback near $39 should be good long entry.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 11:44:19 PM

12/31/07 to 01/18/2008 Bell Sector Bell Curve at this Link

PRECious Metals strongest, DRUGs steady.

SPX NH/NL at today's close was 0:104.

Last time I saw 0 NH for the SPX was 8/29/07. That day there were 7 NL.

This would also begin to confirm my "modest recession" for 2008 forecast.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 10:06:22 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 1/18/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 9:59:35 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Retail, Airlines, Home Construction were only equity-based indexes listed to finish up this week.

Tab Gilles : 1/18/2008 6:41:38 PM

NASDAQ 100 (NDX)1800 would put it at a bear-market 20% decline. Link

NASDAQ Summation $NASI at -1000 the last major extreme low was back in Oct of 2002 @ -1100 Link

$NALOW & $NAHGH Nasdaq New Highs weekly 10EMAS saw a low of 25 back in October 1998 and the NASDAQ New Lows at 350. Currently 35 and 269. Link Link

NASDAQ100 Bullish Percentage $BPNDX the lowest reading was back on Oct 2001 of 1 (extreme low) usually under 20 is oversold, currently 18! Link

Volatility Index NASDAQ ($VXN) I would like t see a spike to the 34/35 range for a bottom BUY. Link

For the $SPX.... Link $NYSI Link $NYHGH & $NYLOW Link Link $BPSPX Link VIX Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 5:34:32 PM

Question/comment: Jeff, Thanks for your reply regarding DIA Friday close contest. I read your post in the MM earlier where you said you thought it would cls at 121. Some time when you have a moment, would you tell me what told you that? I sure didn't get that (obviously)!!

Have a good weekend yourself and thks for sponsoring the contest.

Jeff's Reply: It is a secret I learned a long time ago. It's called a rear view mirror!

Heck ... I can't even guess $120.57 with less than an hour left in trade. Still too high! Do you really think my guess was $121.00? (see MM Profiles)

The winning guess for today's DIA Op-Ex close was $124.56

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 5:17:38 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

SWC-PB ... Splitting initial position in 1/2 for now. Will monitor Tuesday morning but looking to sell one (1) at $2.65. If for some reason stock is trading $7.50 or lower, I would suggest removing the $2.65 GTC order, wait for options to begin trading. Would hate for stock to open down at $7.00 and get filled with a GTC of $2.65. Other SWC-PB has me lowering target to $6.50 in the underlying.

The DAW-AV expire $0.00 with DIA $120.57.

WB-NZ have earnings Tuesday (time not specified)

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 4:31:29 PM

I've mentioned several times recently that the banks were giving me heartburn about thinking long the market as the pattern in the DOW and SPX suggested we could see a bottom (way back up at SPX 1350). The pattern for the banks (BIX) needed a 5th wave down in their decline from December and as I've said many times before, follow the money. The wave pattern is not yet complete for the banks and they look a little lower still. The downside projection to about 220 still looks good but at this point the wave pattern looks very close to complete. The banks should be ready for a much larger bounce to correct its decline from last year. Link

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 4:24:06 PM

One more leg down and maybe then rally. The sideways consolidation 4th wave might have finished just before the close today and if so then the 5th wave projects down to DOW 11736 (just below the 2000 high). Whether it drops that far is anyone's guess (or rallies instead), but it provides a downside target for now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 4:14:04 PM

50-points on many 5-minute intervals.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 4:13:30 PM

As much volume as there was in the YM today, choppy as all get out.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 4:11:53 PM

YM 12,113 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 4:11:16 PM

I'd think there were more swing trade shorts in the YM that might close out into weekend that any longs.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 4:10:20 PM

DIA $120.70

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 4:10:11 PM

YM 12,115 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 4:10:02 PM

With VXO slipping back toward the close, thought DIA up $121.00 at its close, then YM might come "unhedged" further towards its close ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 4:09:01 PM

DIA $120.65

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 4:08:48 PM

DIA $120.57

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 4:08:28 PM

YM exit alert! 12,112

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 4:06:49 PM

DIA $120.89 ... 10 minutes until close.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 4:06:20 PM

ECBOT and GLBOEX have merged now so the DOW futures trade the same hours as the other three.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 4:05:35 PM

Monday holday hours for Globex is a close at 10:30AM - That includes all the four futures markets I trade, S&P (ES), DOW (YM), NDX (NQ) and Russell (ER).

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 4:05:12 PM

IBM finished $103.40 ...

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 4:04:48 PM

Whether you made money or lost money this week, it's over. You have a three-day weekend in which to detox, and maybe to think about what your dreams are for yourself and your loved ones. If you've got too much risk, so much that you think you're going to be worried all weekend, then schedule a time to worry and do some thinking and planning during that scheduled time, but enjoy the rest of it.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 4:02:37 PM

VXO.X finished 29.99 ...

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 4:00:18 PM

No surprise, the market is consolidating right into the close. Since the market is closed Monday (I think Globex will still be trading) we'll have to wait until Tuesday for resolution. I believe we'll get another leg down on Tuesday and that could finally finish the selling and set up a multi-week rally (but probably a choppy one).

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 3:56:54 PM

The SPX has potential resistance at 1329.87 on 15-minute closes. The descending trendline on the SPX's broadening formation at the bottom of its chart has now descended to about 1336.40, so you'll want to see 15-minute closes above that before you consider it confirmed. Barring a big push in a few minutes, that doesn't look likely to happen today. We start again Tuesday.

The SPX looks as if it will end the day with a spring up from support, if any such thing exists. That's a good thing to see if you have hopes that the markets will steady, but it's no guarantee that gains will follow on Tuesday. It at least provides some hope for those who hope to see that happen.

Remember that bounces should be suspect now, whether they take place over minutes, hours, days or even weeks. I'd have to see the SPX back above 1485 or so before I'd even consider changing that impression.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:52:43 PM

VXO.X 29.95 ... if it drops quickly be ready.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:51:34 PM

YM finger on the button alert! with YM 12,150 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:49:19 PM

YM Long alert! 12,143. Stop 12,112. Target 12,250.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:48:45 PM

On a hunch ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:46:55 PM

VXO.X 30.28 ... slips under WKLY R2 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:46:16 PM

IBM $103.22

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:45:29 PM

DIA $120.43 ... YM 12,086

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 3:43:39 PM

No change yet with MOC (market-on-close) orders. Maybe everything was positioned for opex anyway. The SPX's current support is very tenuous, but holding. So far.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:32:30 PM

CHA $82.31 ... sometimes $82.50

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:31:56 PM

YHOO $20.59

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:31:41 PM

SWC $8.05

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:31:32 PM

KSS $40.00

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:29:06 PM

QQQQ $45.22 -0.41% ... did take long for it to get pushed back below $46.00 this morning did it?

See yesterday's MM subscriber note.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 3:26:42 PM

No breakout either direction out of the little triangle the SPX has been building since about noon, with that triangle forming inside the broadening formation. Some days, you just pray for time to move faster and the trading day to end, to stop the carnage, and that's the way a lot of people might be feeling today.

The market-on-close orders will come in about 15 minutes. The tenor of the trading could change or weakness could be exaggerated. Think now about how you want to deal with either reaction.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:26:22 PM

Meanwhile ... SLV $160.53 +2.13%

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:25:45 PM

Apex Silver (SIL) $14.94 -1.58% ... under the $15.00 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:23:55 PM

TRIN 0.80 ... VXO.X 30.70 after kissing WEEKLY R2 (30.46).

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:22:25 PM

DIA $120.86 ... YM 12,127

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:18:29 PM

It isn't over until its over.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:17:40 PM

I'm think'n there were a lot of traders that didn't think $121-ish for a Friday close.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:16:26 PM


Keene Little : 1/18/2008 3:16:26 PM

Interestingly, if I count the move down from January 10th a little differently, and make the projection for the final 5th wave from the current consolidation then I get something closer to DOW 12750, right at the 2000 high. It would be about SPX 1290 which was an important level back in the first half of 2006 and is where its 200-week moving average is.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:16:00 PM

One-hour left for DIA Friday close. $121.00 -0.60% ...

My guess was $121.00 !!!!

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 3:14:51 PM

Here is the MACD divergence I was talking about. Keene is indeed right about how I read the MACD but the sideways consolidation is the key to reversing the thought process on the MACD and I just do not see this price movement as consolidating. Link

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 3:12:35 PM

Again, some slight improvement in outlook is seen on the SPX's 15-minute Keltner chart. Barring a strong whoosh that changes the shape of the move that's been taking place since about noon, though, that move is taking on the shape of a bear flag. Mixed evidence here. The SPX now needs a 15-minute close above about 1338.25 to confirm an upside break through that broadening formation that's been forming since yesterday morning. The SPX is at 1325.69 as I type. If the SPX should continue climbing, anticipate potential resistance at 1330-1333 and then again at that 1338 level.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:12:35 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 3:10:53 PM

The next leg down should be the 5th wave in the decline from Jan 10th, which should complete the 5th wave for the decline from the December high (as long as we're not in the middle of a crash leg lower). If the 5th wave down for the decline from Jan 10th equals the 1st wave then that gives us DOW 11953 for a downside target.

If it continues to chop its way lower to that level then it's going to look like an ending pattern (with bullish divergence). The equivalent downside projection for SPX is 1302 although its Fib projection has already been met at 1316.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 3:11:38 PM

Keene, the way I read the MACD is: At the top of a rally, if price consolidates sideways but MACD falls that is bullish even though you are getting, in essence, bearish divergences.

So the reverse is at the bottom of a selloff, if price consolidates sideways and MACD rises that is bearish even though you have MACD bullish divergences.

The problem here is that I do not see price consolidating or moving sideways so then I revert back to the orginal MACD divergence scenario.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 3:01:21 PM

IBM $103.52 ... afternoon low only went $102.92 (morning was $102.68).

YM 12,090 ... just a little trap low of 12,051. Might have been the low for the day.

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 2:53:18 PM

Jane, one additional comment on your chart with MACD (2:39), and something you've oftened commented about as well. When MACD rises, as your charts show, while price consolidates sideways, that's bearish. In fact your SPX chart shows MACD not able to get above the zero line. When MACD "resets" itself by returning to the zero line it signals a potential resumption of the trend (down in this case).

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 2:53:11 PM

If you're in OEX bull put spreads for January, you might be sweating out this close today. For those of you who don't trade the OEX, its options settle on Friday at the close rather than at the open, and they trade all day Friday. I'm not in any OEX trades at all, but I took a look at it for you, based on the five-minute chart. There's just not much I can offer you, though. On a Keltner outlook, the OEX actually looks stronger than it did when it last tested this price level this morning. It's not in breakdown mode on the five-minute chart and its smallest channel has moved back up inside the largest one. Support at a Keltner line currently at 615.90 has been holding on five-minute closes over the last hour or two.

However, that Keltner line still slants lower, so the SPX could hold its support while sliding lower. And this is a five-minute chart and a five-minute chart is not going to stand up against the kind of onslaught we've seen lately. Anyway, that's what it's showing now, with the OEX dropping a little as I type to test it again.

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 2:43:07 PM

I have more than a few friends who were hurt by the tech dot.bomb disaster from the 2000 high but they've been stubbornly holding onto their portfolio (usually their retirement accounts) in hopes they'll recover. After retracing just over 38% of their losses the techs look lower now too: Link

The COMP has broken below its uptrend line from 2002 and it's looking like Bear Market Phase II has begun. The only thing that's been utterly amazing to me is how long it's taken for Phase II to kick off.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 2:42:47 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now just under 1322. SPX at 1318.37 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 2:42:18 PM

IBM $103.24

YM 12,084

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 2:41:36 PM

As Jane has mentioned, the USDJPY has dropped to new daily lows. That broke it below the triangle shape on its intraday chart, breaking it below a rising trendline off Wednesday's low. So far, it remains above that Wednesday low of 106.40, with the USDJPY at 106.54 as I type. Its low so far is 106.49. Those who hope for some improvement in the markets want a quick bounce from this equal low test in this currency pair.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 2:39:39 PM

I haven't talked too much about the MACD of late. This is an indicator that I really like but am finding it is more useful on the daily charts than the intraday, although it certainly can be of use intraday.

The DOW is now making a double bottom and the MACD is telling you it will stick because of the divergence. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 2:36:19 PM

IBM $103.43

YM 12,075

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 2:34:30 PM

Not good. Potential 15-minute support at 1314.23, but what does 15-minute support do against this? Do watch for the possibility of an equal-low bounce.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 2:32:01 PM

USDJPY - the US$/Yen currency pair is making new daily lows. It will be interesting to see if this "internal" will bring the rest of the market down with it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 2:30:33 PM

YM 12,109

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 2:30:11 PM

IBM 103.66

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 2:29:47 PM

Probably cover a day trade short back here at 12,105. If the up-trend breaks, probably YM 12,063, but then a bounce right back up to 12,105 and could decide if worth a short.

TRIN 0.79 doesn't want to get back above 1.00

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 2:28:28 PM

SPX has already made a clear break of its up-channel from 2002. Want an official sign of an end to the bull market? Here it is: Link . Now a bounce back up to the underbelly of the channel would be a superb long term short play setup (a MOAP).

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 2:27:38 PM

mini "triangles" ... kind'a like the PnF chart bullish/bearish triangles.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 2:26:40 PM

YM day trader's 5-min int. chart Link

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 2:22:44 PM

The significance of the 12080 level for the DOW, and the uptrend line from October 2002 is that it's the bottom of a parallel up-channel for price action since that 2002 low, as shown on this monthly chart: Link

Price has done a fast reversal from the top of the channel in October 2007 and it would be very typical for a bounce back up before breaking down from the channel. A break lower, if it doesn't recover quickly, could have the DOW testing its 2000 high at 11750 next.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 2:20:41 PM

Quite a few "bad ticks" to the downside last 30-minutes. MO $75.47 -1.70% ... "bad tick" to $73.50.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 2:18:30 PM

YM 12,155 ... wasn't going to risk more than 12,150.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 2:17:53 PM

IBM's mid-point dyanmic at $104.67

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 2:17:04 PM

IBM 104.03

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 2:16:34 PM

YM short stop alert! ... 12,146

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 2:15:07 PM

IBM $103.93

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 2:14:31 PM

YM short lower stop alert! ... to 12,146 (from 12,150) .... going to be close.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 2:12:49 PM

YM shorts don't want to see IBM $103.83 +2.70% ... much back abovee $104.00

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 2:11:50 PM

Instead of two equal legs up it looks like we're going to form a sideways triangle--possible 4th wave in the count for the decline from Jan 10th and then we'll get a 5th wave down to a new low. At this point it's looking like DOW 12K will break. If it happens quick enough today maybe then we'll get a v-bottom reversal and get back into the green by the end of the day. Hey, anything's possible.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 2:01:20 PM

YM short alert! here at 12,114. Stop goes 12,140. Target 12,020

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 1:54:52 PM

The bulls are working hard to hold onto DOW 12080 support at its uptrend line. The only trouble is that the longer it consolidates here (vs. taking off to the up side) the more bearish it becomes. If we get another leg up in today's bounce I'll be watching for what happens when it achieves two equal legs up. Could be a good short there. In the meantime watch out for potential chop.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 1:46:49 PM

The SPX is back to test the five-minute Keltner support now at 1317.51-1318.57. It's holding so far, but more needs to be accomplished than just these support tests. If they can't push prices higher, we're going to get these continued support tests. Eventually, the direction will be decided, but I don't think it is yet.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 1:36:58 PM

No new high yet on the SPX, and it's really needed to improve the confidence level of new bulls. Specifically, bulls need to see a 15-minute close above the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1324.31 and then above Keltner resistance now at 1326.38. SPX at 1322.66 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 1:30:31 PM

So far, the SPX's five-minute former Keltner resistance is tentatively holding as support. Those in new bullish positions want to see a surge higher now, to a new high of the day.

They don't want to see resistance at five-minute closes at the five-minute 9-ema at 1322.56 or then at fifteen-minute closes at the fifteen-minute 9-ema at 1324.65. Those are exactly the things that those in bearish positions do want to see happen.

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 1:28:21 PM

The bounce is confirmed corrective. Even if we get another leg up in the bounce now, it's very likely we have not seen the lows yet.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 1:23:59 PM

Yep. The SPX is dropping back to recharge. Rolling back to the five-minute chart we used earlier to identify the first tentative changes in tenor, I see that 1319.60-1319.94 support on five-minute closes is being tested and even exceeded by a little. Only a little, however, on a five-minute closing basis. A retest of this former resistance is not surprising, but bulls need to pull this up pretty soon or this will amount to more than a recharging. This is coming just ahead of a typical stop-running time of day when big money returns from lunch and tests, to see if support or resistance will hold, so this is our test. Big money isn't going to pile into big bullish positions if the support test fails in a big way.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 1:22:46 PM

Might just have to take back my earlier "crack spread" comment/observation.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 1:18:21 PM

Reminder: Bond market is closed.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 1:16:42 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 1:16:40 PM

We're seeing some tentative good signs, but early ones. I do have to note, however, that bulls would have more confidence if there had been more follow-through after the first surge higher about an hour to forty-five years ago. Bulls would like to have seen shorts rush to cover, adding to the upside, but either this morning blew out a lot of short positions or else shorts are just in no hurry to cover. Fifteen-minute candles are showing upper shadows, and that's just not something that bulls want to see as it suggests that there may need to be a pullback to recharge.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 1:12:53 PM

Maybe, maybe. The SPX is above the 15-minute 9-ema, now at about 1325.90 as I type. It's also testing further resistance at 1329.50 on 15-minute closes. Remember that descending top trendline for the broadening formation that I mentioned earlier? That's now crossing just under 1345, with Keltner resistance now at 1339.40 on 15-minute closes. So, it would require sustained 15-minute closes above that Keltner line and then above 1345 to show the SPX breaking out of that broadening formation to the upside. For now, if you're in a bullish position and the SPX keeps climbing, use the time to decide how you'll deal with a test of that 1340-1345 zone.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 1:02:25 PM

The SPX has not been able to maintain 15-minute closes above the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1326.24. Until and unless it does so (and maybe even then), it retains vulnerability to another downturn, at least to 1314.99, so new bulls would like to see 15-minute closes above that 9-ema.

Dialing back down to the five-minute chart, I see support beginning to look slightly firmer in the 1319-1322 zone. That may be about to be tested, and new bulls want it to hold on five-minute closes if it is tested.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 1:00:15 PM

Well so much for sustainable buying. It will happen at some point but I guess we are not there yet.

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 12:55:05 PM

So far the bounce off the low is just a little 3-wave move which is a correction. If it can push back up for another high right here then we'll get a small 5-wave move and indicate that a bottom is in for now.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 12:46:06 PM

Thanks Linda.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 12:43:35 PM

The SPX now has a broadening formation at the bottom of its decline, forming beginning yesterday morning through this morning. When we see such a broadening formation, we know it's indicative of emotion-based trading. When this occurs at the top of a rise, such as happened with the RUT on its weekly chart, we deem that likely a bearish formation. I've searched all sorts of tomes and gotten mixed information about whether we should consider it bullish when it forms at the bottom of a decline. The possibility exists that we could although some technical analysis experts are mum on the subject. We know this at least: emotion-based trading means that fear was prompting some bailing of positions and we know we want to see fear when there's a short-term bottom being put in. We also know that it's difficult in a broadening formation to determine when support or resistance has been violated. Currently, the resistance at that broadening formation looks to be at about 1345, so the SPX would have to sustain values above that before it's doing anything other than churning around in a broadening formation. Do be aware of possible strong resistance in that zone if the SPX could bounce that high.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 12:38:52 PM

I'm rolling up to the SPX's 15-minute chart now to get a longer-term look than that on the five-minute chart. The SPX has just tested its 15-minute 9-ema, with that at about 1327.12. This 15-minute period is far from concluded, so we'll have to see if the SPX can push above this resistance. So far, it's having a bit of trouble with it, but it's not falling back far yet. SPX at 1324.88 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 12:36:38 PM

Hey, congrats, Jane!

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 12:35:48 PM

An SPX five-minute close above the five-minute 9-ema, and one at the breakdown level, too, now at 1324.37. Remember earlier when I italicized the word "sustained" when referencing what bulls want to see? A pop above a benchmark doesn't mean anything but that a test was going on, if it's not sustained.

Okay, bears, you've gotten your first most tentative of tentative signs that the shortest-term tenor is changing. There's no proof yet that a bounce will be sustained, but that doesn't mean that you don't have to have a plan and adhere to it. Earlier, I detailed what happened on the Nikkei last night as an example of what can happen on our markets. There's no proof that we're going to see something equivalent, but the Nikkei's pattern last night should be proof that you absolutely must know your get-out points and adhere to them. If they're being hit or if you took on too much risk and absolutely cannot afford to lose money, then you need to put your plan into effect.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 12:35:09 PM

Ok this buying looks like it may be sustainable at least for the rest of the day.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 12:31:54 PM

Ya didn't think it would make heh?

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 12:31:27 PM

Out at target

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 12:31:33 PM

BIG push higher in the TRAN . . . at least, when you're looking at it on a five-minute chart. Smile.

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 12:29:59 PM

Of course when I say short the bounces that could be as difficult as buying the pullbacks (that never came) during relentless rallies. Right now though it looks like today's decline might have completed a 5-wave move down (difficult to tell since it's so sharp with practically no bounces) and if so then we're due at least a larger bounce to correct the move. Then we'll see how it sets up for either another shorting opportunity or if it's something more impulsive to the upside then I'll look to buy a pullback. Tricky spot here.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 12:28:55 PM

TRAN still bouncing from its five-minute 9-ema. This is the most tentative of tentative signs, but keep a watch on this behavior. The USDJPY is also attempting to break above the five-minute 9-ema, although it hasn't yet confirmed by a close above it. Again, the most tentative of tentative signs.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 12:26:54 PM

The SPX's resistance at 1323.50-1325.50 (five-minute chart) looks strong enough that it's going to take a strong punch to get through it. In this context, it's not as bearish that the SPX is consolidating just beneath its five-minute 9-ema as it would be otherwise. With that strong resistance layered above, it should be dropping harder, and maybe it still will. If it does, those hoping for recovery want 1313.50 or so to hold as support on five-minute closes. Those hoping for more weakness want a new low, and particularly want a movement below about 1310, where a descending supporting trendline crosses.

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 12:23:02 PM

On the daily SPX chart I had shown what a crash might look like if the market continues to break down. One other possibility, which calls for a continuation lower but then find support for a larger bounce, is shown with the dark red wave count on this updated SPX chart: Link

For the move down from December, the 5th wave would equal 162% of the 1st wave (typical when the 5th wave "extends") at 1286. That's still a long ways down and it would likely stair-step lower from here (so it could take a few days). It would be the next potential support level if the decline continues since there's not much in the way of support between here and there. At this point this morning's high has to be taken out in order to tell us a meaningful bottom is in. Short the bounces until that happens.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 12:22:43 PM

Where the TRAN leads, the SPX, OEX and Dow sometimes go. The TRAN has begun forming five-minute closes above the five-minute 9-ema. Just a heads-up. The TRAN's Keltner setup is completely different than the SPX's. It's stronger on a Keltner basis, not in breakdown mode on this 15-minute chart. It's coming back now to retest the 9-ema to see if it holds as support. TRAN at 4143.25 as I type, just above that 9-ema.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 12:18:44 PM

Now long from 12136 with a stop at 12097 and target at 12175.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 12:17:41 PM

Stop will be 12097 and target 1:1 ratio to risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 12:17:08 PM

Swing trade put adjustment alert! ... for the two (2) Stillwater Mining SWC Apr $10 Puts (SWC-PB)

Let's place an order to sell 1/2 of the position and sell one (1) for $2.65 with SWC-PB $2.35 x $2.65. SWC $7.99 -4.42%.

Hold the other 1/2 position with revised lower target of $6.50 in the underlying.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 12:17:06 PM

I see a YM long at 12136.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 12:16:04 PM

No SPX five-minute close above the five-minute 9-ema yet, but the drops have slowed so that moving average is beginning to flatten. If this continues, the SPX might punch up toward 1324-1326 (Doesn't that sound strange--up toward that level?) where resistance currently looks strong. So, there are some very short-term things to watch, but no real change in tenor yet, even on the five-minute chart. The SPX is at 1319.90 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 12:03:22 PM

If you're trading the SPX on the bearish side and looking for a benchmark to test when the tenor might be changing, you need something faster than that 30-minute or even 15-minute 9-ema. Try the five-minute chart. The SPX has pretty much been following it lower since about 10:35 this morning. What you want is the opposite of what bulls wanted this morning. You want to see the SPX bounced back every time it hits this average, currently at 1321.55. You want the SPX to continue moving lower fast enough to keep the 9-ema turned down. At some point, there's going to be some consolidation long enough to flatten that five-minute 9-ema and to allow the SPX to move across to the other side of its smallest channel, with that other side now at about 1327.63, but you want five-minute closes beneath it, if that happens.

And, you want to keep in mind that on a five-minute chart, you'll see an early warning, but you'll also may get false ones. With any indicator, whatever it is, you pay for quickness with some false indications.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 12:00:24 PM

Here is the Nasdaq composite. Link

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 11:58:46 AM

Ugly. The DOW is now 300 points down from this morning's high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 11:57:50 AM

UTX $68.05 -0.05% ... slips red.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 11:56:43 AM

Russell 2000 is already into a bear market. Link

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 11:55:03 AM

The DOW is only 726 points away from an "official" bear market Link

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 11:52:42 AM

The DOW is now approaching potential support near 12080 at its uptrend line from October 2002 through the July 2006 low. If that doesn't hold then it's a quick trip down to 12K. And if that doesn't hold then batten down the hatches because it could get rough.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 11:52:41 AM

The S&P is just 58 points away from an "official" bear market. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 11:51:26 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 11:50:06 AM

Here's an example of why I keep warning that you need to be prepared in case a relief rally begins. Last night the Nikkei 225 dropped 418.13 points from the previous day's close. Then, it started bouncing. At its high of the day, it was 537.32 points off the low of the day. It didn't hold onto all of its gains, but it did close in positive territory, up 77.84 points. Things like that can and do happen. No promises, but you absolutely have to know the risks you're accepting when in the market in times like this. Markets also crater and keep cratering.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 11:48:19 AM

DAteline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- President Bush on Friday called for about $145 billion worth of tax relief to stimulate a sagging economy and fend off a possible recession.

Mr. Bush said that to be effective, an economic stimulus package would need to roughly represent 1% of the gross domestic product -- the value of all U.S. goods and services and the best measure of the country's economic standing. White House advisers say that, in current terms, 1% would amount to around $145 billion, which is along the lines of what private economists say should be sufficient to help give the economy a short-term boost.

"Letting Americans keep more of their money should increase consumer spending," he said.

Mr. Bush said that Congress should work as soon as possible to send him legislation to "keep our economy growing and creating jobs."

The president and Congress are scrambling to take action as fears mount that a severe housing slump and painful credit crisis could cause people to close their wallets and businesses to put a lid on hiring, throwing the nation into its first recession since 2001.

Congressional leaders, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat, have discussed wrapping up details of their stimulus plan the week of the State of the Union address, which falls on Jan. 28, though procedural hurdles in the Senate could delay final action for weeks

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 11:41:42 AM

Here's where the TRAN is in relationship to its weekly 200-sma and -ema's: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 11:34:25 AM

Swing trade put alert! ... for one (1) of the China Telecom CHA Feb $75 Puts (CHA-NO) at the offer of $3.10. ($2.60 x $3.10) ... just saw 10 crossed at $2.80. No stop for now. Target $70.00 in the underlying.

CHA $82.32 +5.38% ...

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 11:34:16 AM

A minor new low or the DOW and SPX could set up a big reversal back up if some buy programs trap the shorts. So laying in some buy stops above could work nicely. That may be a better way to try the long side rather than picking a bottom.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 11:33:54 AM

Here's where we are on the SPX weekly chart, with the neon-green line the 200-ema: Link Please don't take this approach to an important marker as a license to stay longer than you should in a losing trade or as a promise that a bounce will start right here. When markets are cascading lower, they cut through everything. However, do take this as a warning if heavily bearish that you do need to have your plan prepared in case this is "the" turnaround point.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 11:27:50 AM

The USDJPY has now dropped down to test the rising trendline off the Wednesday morning low. I believe it would take sustained 15-minute closes beneath 106.75 to violate that trendline. The USDJPY is at 106.92 as I type. So far, the USDJPY hasn't been corroborative of this equity weakness nor predictive of greater strength to come. It's jsut not giving us any signals at all on an intraday basis, at least.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 11:22:07 AM

The SPX approaches the 1326.70 level that was the May 2006 high. When you've seen markets slash through all kinds of support levels, it's difficult to find anything that you think may hold, but several charts corroborate potential support here. It was one level I suggested in last night's Wrap that might be watched for bounce potential without promising that a bounce would begin from that level. In addition, the weekly 200-ema is at 1321, the weekly 200-sma at 1291.45. The potential daily Keltner support is at 1315.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 11:19:08 AM

Unbelievable weakness.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 11:18:46 AM

The only market that has not broken its overnight and previous day lows is the NDX. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 11:18:19 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 11:08:09 AM

The SPX was not able to maintain 30-minute closes above its 9-ema, so that's not what new bulls want to see. Let's examine the other evidence. The breakdown level on that 30-minute chart is now at about 1338.10 on 30-minute closes. The SPX is just below that now, but it closed the last 30-minute period at or maybe only slightly below that breakdown benchmark. While the SPX isn't sustaining early strength, it's also not sustaining yesterday's late-day breakdown mode on this chart or it hasn't been until now. If the SPX could manage another 30-minute close above this benchmark, the suggestion would at least be made that it's stabilizing. For now, we just don't have anything yet that proves to us that the SPX won't head back down to test yesterday's low or the next potential support on that chart near 1328.45. My gut impression is that there's an attempt to stabilize it without my having any evidence at all as to whether that attempt will be successful.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 10:53:56 AM

For the SPX, that 30-minute 9-ema is currently at 1344.31. For the OEX, it's at 629.71.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 10:49:33 AM

IBM $104.43 +3.29% ... challenged that overlap from dual retracement (see Monday's Wrap) at $106.38.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 10:48:21 AM

Don't think Art will be looking for more than that today.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 10:48:03 AM

DIA's DAILY R1 at $124.19 ... about 2.18 million shares of OI at that $125 strike.

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 10:47:56 AM

After breaking below the bottom of a parallel down-channel from October, the DOW bounced up to the bottom of it this morning and has pulled back. This is typical price action in a bearish breakdown. It's going to be very important for the bulls to make a new daily high now and hold it. If price instead breaks back down again then the next potential support level is the uptrend line from October 2002 which is near 12080. The market will be in trouble if the DOW breaks below 12K. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 10:45:42 AM

UTX $68.95 +1.26% ... did trade as high as $70.00 on the button.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 10:42:49 AM

GLD $87.01 +0.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 10:42:35 AM

SLV $160.85 +2.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 10:42:18 AM

Wachovia (WB) $31.91 -1.36% ... that's a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 10:38:55 AM

Halliburton (HAL) $31.98 -3.96% ...

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 10:38:17 AM

Art Cashin was on CNBC this morning. Whatever you think of CNBC, it's hard to fault Art Cashin and I always listen to what he has to say. He was saying this morning that it wouldn't be until about 11:00 (ET) before we knew whether there was any sustainability to the gains. We still have a few minutes to go.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 10:36:16 AM

The SPX formed a 30-minute close at the 30-minute 9-ema. This is the first time since Wednesday evening that it has formed a close at or above that moving average. Those of you who are attempting bullish trades today have gotten a first nod, but now these closes need to be sustained. The SPX has also held up well enough to flatten the 9-ema, which had been descending. Now the SPX needs to gain enough to turn that moving average higher. The average is current at about 1345.30 with the SPX at 1345.35 as I type.

As I said last night, if you're brave and trading the bullish side, keep thinking of this as a likely countertrend trade. Doing so will help you maintain good trade management practices. You've gotten evidence lately of how quickly markets can fall apart, so you absolutely do not want to stay in a bullish trade if that begins to happen. Better to take profits too quickly and miss out on the rest of the move than to have all profits wiped out and big losses created. Similarly, those in bearish trades should be aware that relief rallies can be sharp and painful if you hang onto a position too long.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 10:30:27 AM

Valero (VLO) $53.18 +2.03% .... steady.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 10:29:38 AM

Please remember that Feb. Crude Oil (cl08g) $90.75 +0.68% expires on Tuesday.

Gives the look that the crack spread is really narrowing if compared to the unleaded +1.32%.

March Crude +0.83%, March Unleaded +0.86%.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 10:25:47 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer sentiment improved in January, according to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday by UMich and Reuters.

The index rose to 80.5 in mid-January from 75.5 in December, the first increase since July.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected a decline to 74.3.

The current conditions index rose to 98.1 from 91.0, while the expectations index rose to 69.1 from 65.6.

Inflation expectations over the next year remained steady at 3.4%.

In a separate report, the Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators fell 0.2% in December, the third straight decline.

The private research group said the index suggests sluggish economic activity ahead. See full story.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 10:24:32 AM

Schlumberger Posts Weak US Results As Activity Levels Off

DJ (partial)- Schlumberger Ltd.'s (SLB) fourth-quarter results suffered from lower profits in North America, which combined with slowing international growth presented a difficult road for the world's largest oilfield services company. North American revenue dropped 7% from the fourth quarter of 2006, while operating income of $338 million plunged 23%. The results largely hinged on business in the U.S., which is by far the largest market on the continent. Chief Executive Andrew Gould said the region has leveled off after seeing declines last year. Natural gas production proved resilient, and LNG imports provided some of the supply that might once have come from U.S. and Canadian fields. Service companies had bulked up in expectations of a continued boom, resulting in fierce competition for work and, recently, a wave of price cuts. Schlumberger recently reduced its workforce in the U.S. and Canada to reflect the new reality, though Gould said the current activity level is appropriate for maintaining production. "I don't think you'll see another precipitous decline," he said on a conference call with analysts, adding "I'm probably going to regret this." Schlumberger reported a net profit of $1.38 billion, or $1.12 per share. That was up from $1.13 billion or 92 cents a year ago, but one cent below the average analyst forecast. Revenue of $6.25 billion was up from $5.35 billion a year ago, and slightly topped analyst forecasts of $6.14 billion. Analysts were surveyed by Thomson Financial. The company's stock was off 6.3% at $77.35 in morning trading. Complicating the outlook for the company is slowing international growth after several extremely strong years. Service work is increasingly shifting offshore, but the shortage of available drilling rigs places a cap on the jobs available to Schlumberger, Gould said. "I think expectations on international growth were too high," he said. The company awaits 160 new rigs expected to be delivered through 2011, he said, which will help service companies increase the share of their work conducted offshore and outside North America. "I see 2008 as a transition year into a cycle which is going to be dominated by offshore," he said. "There is no reason why we shouldn't see our margins reassert themselves."

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 10:24:17 AM

VIX was making new daily lows but as retreated as well and is now noncommital.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 10:23:15 AM

AD line started out at +1252 but has now fallen to +999.

Tab Gilles : 1/18/2008 10:20:00 AM

Celgene (CELG) $54.95 Hitting some resistance at the $55.50 gap/50-ma level. Forecasts call for its Revlimid cancer drug to more than double its sales in 2008.

daily chart: Link weekly: Link PnF: Link

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 10:18:54 AM

US$ is in a range now with resistance at 76.50 and support at around 75.50. Link

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 10:17:59 AM

The SPX has of course risen above the 30-minute 9-ema, so those of you testing bullish waters now want to see it maintain 30-minute closes above this moving average. That 9-ema is now at 1345.69, with the SPX at 1347.47 as I type.

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 10:16:43 AM

Nice pop back up, even for the RUT. This should get some follow through to the upside for at least a little while. Then we'd get to see what form the bounce takes.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 10:11:15 AM

Here's why I'm saying that the leading indicators aren't all that "leading": They're compiled by the Conference Board from a number of previously announced economic indicators. That means that it's usually fairly easy to predict what the CB is going to say. Some say that this number can be predictive of recessions, so that's particularly important in this climate, but others argue that it tends to predict recessions that never materialize.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 10:10:57 AM

Crude has tagged its 76.40 fib level, which is the swing low from December 18th Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 10:09:09 AM

Sprint Nextel (S) $9.45 -18.4% ... notably weak.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 10:08:36 AM

Schlumberger (SLB) $76.50 -7.30% ... notably weak.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 10:05:59 AM

I'm kind of surprised that the U of Michigan's better-than-expected sentiment number isn't overcoming the bearishness of the "leading" indicators' apparent weakness, being that the leading indicators aren't really all that leading.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 10:03:50 AM

The SPX again found resistance at its 30-minute 9-ema on the just-completed 30-minute period. No trend change yet. We'll ahve to see what happens next.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 10:02:43 AM

U.S. leading indicators point to continuing slow growth

Dec. leading indicators down 0.2% vs 0.4% dip in Nov.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 10:04:31 AM

Univ. of Michigan Mid-Jan Sentiment 80.5; Dec 75.5
Current Index 98.1; Dec 91.0
Expectations 69.1; Dec 65.6
12-Mo Inflation Forecast +3.4%; Dec +3.4%
5-Yr Inflation Forecast +3.0%; Dec +3.1%

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 10:01:47 AM

Keene, I was also just noticing how weak the RUT looked today compared to some other indices--the SOX, for example. I'm getting a mixed picture when looking at the two of them and adding in the TRAN, which is holding up fairly well near its high of the day, at least as gauged on the 15-minute chart.

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 9:59:55 AM

Small caps are weaker today--back into the red so bulls need to exercise caution here. ES could be the first of equity futures to close its gap (which had closed higher than SPX cash yesterday).

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 9:58:14 AM

Swing trade call place order to sell alert! ... the one (1) Dow Diamonds DIA Jan $126 Call (DAW-AV) for $0.35 if traded.

DIA $122.27 +0.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2008 9:55:34 AM

DIA Options Montage at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 9:48:48 AM

Some traders will step aside for these reports but I trade through them for a couple of reasons. One is that I have found the move before the report is typically indicative of where the market will move after the report and secondly, I never know how to get back into sync.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 9:48:03 AM

For you OEX traders, here's a look at the OEX on a 30-minute Keltner chart, with the OEX also finding resistance all day yesterday on 30-minute closes at the 9-ema: Link

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 9:46:09 AM

If you didn't read my Wrap last night, here's a 30-minute Keltner chart of the SPX, so you can see that resistance on 30-minute closes at the thin red 9-ema. It's natural for the SPX to be pausing here--this has been resistance for a whole trading day--but those of you in bullish positions don't want to see a steep pullback here but rather a sideways consolidation or another gain. Link

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 9:45:15 AM

Remember the economic reports out at 10:00 today. The consumer sentiment will move the market for sure.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 9:43:47 AM

So far, the USDJPY has been maintaining a rising trendline support that began to be put in place Wednesday morning. That trendline now crosses at about 106.75, and the USDJPY is at 107.22 as I type. It's also, however, maintained resistance at a descending trendline, forming a triangle. That upper trendline is at about 107.42 if I'm eyeballing it correctly. So, there's no prediction of short-term equity direction being offered this morning by the USDJPY.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 9:41:18 AM

Gold has not pulled back enough for me to try to get long again. I think this market still needs more backing and filling. I am still looking for $850. Link

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 9:40:25 AM

If you're testing bullish SPX positions today--not something I tend to do on countertrend days, willing instead to let a good trade go rather than accept the risk of trying to catch the bottom--you first want the conditions in the 9:35:58 post to be met. Then you want the SPX to continue climbing fast enough that it turns that 30-minute 9-ema higher. The SPX has now charged up just under the 30-minute 9-ema, so now we begin to see what happens. It's not going to be unusual for a pause here, but you don't want too deep a pullback if you're testing bullish positions.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 9:39:28 AM

This is not what I expected to see overnight. I expected the buying that started right after the markets opened to continue but the sellers were able to overpower the buyers once again. Link

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 9:35:58 AM

I pointed out in last night's Wrap that the SPX found resistance all day yesterday on tests of the 30-minute (not 15-minute) 9-ema, so that will be our first place we'll watch for strong resistance today and the first benchmark we'll use to determine if anything has really changed. That average is currently at 1345.64, and those who want a change in tenor want sustained 30-minute closes above that average. Until then, we can't be sure that markets are doing anything other than what they did at least three times yesterday--rising up to retest the moving average. SPX at 1339.16 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 1/18/2008 9:32:41 AM

Here we go, and it looks as if we might have another one of those weird settlement Fridays again, if the SPX continues gaining strongly as its various component stocks open. Some of you who were prudent and took losses yesterday are kicking yourselves this morning, but it could have just as easily happened the other way.

Keene Little : 1/18/2008 9:26:38 AM

We've had a big pullback in equity futures since the pre-market high near 8:00 AM but will still have a big gap up to start the day. Will it hold today? Will it close the gap and then rally? Anything can happen but so far the important thing for the bulls is that the start is on the green side--this will be an important day for the bulls to rally.

Jane Fox : 1/18/2008 9:23:36 AM

And another chess piece falls.


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