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Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 12:49:17 AM

$NIKK ... 3% box size chart Link where each box is 3%.

$SPX ... 3% box size chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 12:46:18 AM

That makes this Link look like a "walk in the park"

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 12:44:02 AM

Japan stocks extend gains, Nikkei up over 3% ... Reuters Story Link

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 12:29:55 AM

I hope so Keene! Jerry was wondering what happened with the 01/15/08 short. I couldn't see any updates either. Feared you and some others might still be short. (wink)

As you can see from my blotter, it looked like I might have dug a hole with the NAKED VLO-OJ. Couldn't leave that one hanging.

Has that "rat" turned into a "rabbit" with the VLO-FK entered yesterday at $48.79? Wasn't trying to "pick the bottom," but you just never know.

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 12:21:08 AM

Jeff, I promise to follow on the MM my attempts to short gold (wink).

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 12:17:20 AM

I'd love to see you follow your trade "mentionings" Keene! Get intimate with your signals. Make any needed adjustments. Pick up on "themes" as you attack a scenario that plays out. That's how institutional and pro-traders trade. They smell a scent, and those dogs can hunt when they get on a winning trade!

Hey! How about that recent CHA-NO put from 1/18/08. See that CHA-LT from 11/2/07 to 12/21/07? This dog can hunt! Found a rat, but turned it into a rabbit!

I get asked all the time by subscribers to profile and follow more trades. Educate on trade management. However, there's only so many I can follow.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 12:16:26 AM

Trade Blotter's like the one I utilize here in the MM Link allow me to review trades of days, weeks and months gone by.

I can sort by any column. What was I thinking, then DOING on 12/11/07? Selling long a QQQ-AX for a 13.33% gain. Underlying security entry (column T) was QQQQ $51.59. Exit (column Q) was QQQQ $52.20. All be darned! That wasn't "the top" but a pretty good exit!

Then I turned focus on a Permian Basin Trust (PBT) long at $15.09. 3-days later booked a decent 4.71% gain on 1/2 position. Today, PBT trades $16.76! I didn't "sell the top!"

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 11:58:54 PM

I don't do that (post trade signals) because then I'm obligated to manage the trade every step of the way. Reader feedback has been for me not to do that--most (not all) prefer I not get bogged down in managing trades, and having it color my bias, and instead want me to offer a broader unbiased perspective on multiple indices, sectors/stocks, currencies and commodities.

Hence the purpose of the EW roadmaps showing the key levels on the charts that determine whether we're in a bullish or bearish wave pattern. I like to show the key levels and potential support/resistance and let the traders decide for themselves how they want, or don't want, to trade the chart that I show them. I started as a subscriber with OIN and stuck with them because of their philosophy about teaching a trader to trade and not trading for him. It's what I wanted to "pay forward" and the reason I still contribute.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 11:51:19 PM

Keene! Great way for easy check is to use OI standard of ... Swing trade call alert!, or Swing trade put alert!

Or a Trade Blotter !!!!

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 11:49:33 PM

I completely agree with not averaging down in a losing trade. Rule #1 is don't do that. Rule #2 is see rule #1. It's the quickest way to blowing up your account. Soc General's rogue trader losing $7.1B is a good example. Or the Hunt Bros. in silver, or Amaranth, or... you get the idea.

But averaging up in a winning trade is arguably not a good idea either. But again, there are traders who swear by that technique (averaging up). To each his own--develop a technique and stick to what works for you.

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 11:44:30 PM

Yes, I had recommeded a short on AAPL around 193.50 back on Dec 7th ("a day that will live in infamy") with a stop at 200. I then lowered my stop to 188.50 on Dec 20th (just above the downtrend line) and got stopped out the next day on the gap up to 190 for a small profit. I then mentioned after Christmas (haven't checked my notes) as it traded around 203 that it was vulnerable to topping there but thought we'd get a pullback and then another push higher. When it broke its uptrend line on Jan 4th I wasn't paying attention to it and then was hoping for a bounce back up to retest the trend line. It never happened and I never got short again. I wasn't very happy about it but knew there would be another bus coming to take a ride.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 11:47:44 PM

Trading Basics: It's better to average INTO a WINNING trade than it is to average INTO an already LOSING trade.

Yep, averaging INTO a LOSING trade brings your cost basis down, but when do you admit the MISTAKE? When the account is dry and the MARGIN call comes?

I've NEVER been there and done that with a MARGIN call. Not with CLIENT accounts, or my own.

I've seen it done, and it isn't pretty.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 11:41:50 PM

Keene! On 12/12/07, my records show AAPL traded a high of $194.48. $200 was not traded until 12/26/08.

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 11:35:47 PM

That's definitely a good way to approach a trade. One could do the same thing with futures contracts--leg into a larger position as the trade starts working for you. But there are equally valid arguments for not legging into a larger position as your cost average climbs and you might have to stop out at breakeven after having had a very winning trade on a smaller position from closer to the top or bottom. Again, different techniques and what people need to identify is what works for them--what can you comfortably do and still get a good night's sleep.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 11:35:56 PM

One "reason" I find it difficult (I've been there and done that. I've gotten my share of tops and bottoms, but have gotten enough blown back in my face to learn) to try and short, or even put "the top" is AAPL Link

What I think, based on observation happened was that when the overleveraged April puts were stopped out as AAPL traded another all-time high to $200, confidence was lost to then PUT the breakdowns.

Lesson: If trying to "pick a top," do it with a put. Take one (1) to begin, so you don't "freak out!" Once the stock begins to prove that you have indeed "picked the top" then you can always buy more puts.

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 11:21:03 PM

Jeff, as to your statement about no overhead supply which makes shorting a top too risky, you said the same thing about my recommendation to short AAPL at $200. It's now down $65. My April 150 puts at 5.50 exploded to over $20. Too bad I wasn't still in them after getting stopped out on the late December bounce and then not following the stock closely enough after that.

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 11:17:44 PM

SPX stopped at an interesting spot on Thursday. I often talk about watching for where a move has two equal legs. That's a common level where you will see a reversal. If it doesn't reverse there then the 2nd leg often travels 162% of the 1st leg. I also like to use parallel channels since these do a good job at showing where a measured move might get reversed. If two equal legs happens to land at the bottom of a down-channel or top of an up-channel then the likelihood of a reversal increases.

Look at the SPX daily chart here to see where price stopped on Thursday: Link . First of all, SPX did not make it down to the 162% projection at 1248.53, yet. It might not, that's just a target. But once price drops through the level of equality (at 1353.58 in this case), very often you will see price retrace to that level where it will find resistance.

Also, when price drops out the bottom of a down-channel (or blasts higher through the top of an up-channel) it's common for the broken parallel line to act as support/resistance (resistance in this case). Today the bottom of the down channel crossed the Fib projection for equality at 1253.58. Today's high was 1255.15 but it closed below it at 1352.07.

Will it do an about face and head south from here? We can't know that and with futures up this evening after MSFT's earnings report it's looking bullish so far for Friday morning (which could easily change by the morning). But I show this as a heads up for Friday since this kind of setup often marks a reversal (for at least a pullback).

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 11:17:45 PM

Buy strength, sell weakness.

At 52-week highs, or all-time highs, overhead supply is limited and "greed" among bulls can have them sitting on their hands. For a short, this becomes the most dangerous of conditions. Especially for commodities. What's the P/E ratio on an ounce of gold? What's its book value?

What does one do when "limit up" conditions exist?

These are the questions of RISK MANAGEMENT that must be addressed.

"It won't happen to me."

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 10:59:15 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 10:58:28 PM

Jeff has made repeated remarks about the foolishness of trying to pick a top, specifically referring to my attempt to short gold. There is no right way or wrong way to trade, even if it's not Jeff's way. What's important is risk management. So I thought it would be a good exercise to go through my recent attempt to short gold and why I think it is often less risky than shorting a breakdown as Jeff suggests, or to use options instead of futures. Again, what I'll take you through is just a different technique and I thought a good educational opportunity.

I suggested gold was a good short on Jan 15th (2:03 PM post) since it had tested the high on the 14th with negative divergence and was at the top of a longer term up-channel and at a Fib target. This was the weekly chart of GLD at the time: Link and the daily chart of the gold contract: Link

Shorting gold with a stop at a new high is the way to control your risk. Once the move starts down then you quickly get it down to where a new high would stop you out and then follow it down with a downtrend line to trail your stop (or moving averages or whatever technique you like to use). I didn't like the corrective way it was coming down and therefore got out Monday night after the world's stock markets had such a bad day (taking my own advice to take profits off the table when offered).

If you used a downtrend line you would have been out at the break of that line Tuesday morning near 881. Climbing above the gap at Friday's closing price of 883.80 would have been another exit point. Depending on where you entered the short play you would have had at least a $10 profit on the short.

Today (Thursday) I mentioned again (2:45 PM) that we could have a good setup for another attempt at the short side. I liked the looks of a rising wedge pattern and the negative divergence on the daily chart (GLD daily chart posted then: Link )

Gold then got another bounce back up to the top of the rising wedge this afternoon (shown on a 120-min chart this morning at 11:34 AM)) and I liked the short term negative divergence so I shorted it at 912.50 this afternoon with a stop at 915.50. I try to use $3 max for my stop if I can and that placed it a couple of points above the top of the rising wedge. This is how the wedge looked this morning when I posted it: Link and how it looks tonight: Link

Notice I'm still showing the possibility that we'll only get a small pullback and then another high within the rising wedge (but might not). So with gold (YG) down a little this evening (908.50 low so far), I've already lowered my stop to breakeven (using a conditional order to be sure it triggers during after market hours). Where's the risk? I had a tight stop at entry and I'm already at breakeven.

There's very little slippage with futures trades (as compared to options) and I can stop out overnight. With options I have to wait until the market is open. If I tried to stop in on a breakdown I'd have to worry about how high to place my stop and trying that during overnight while I'm asleep just isn't for me.

If I get stopped out on this trade guess where I'll be reentering it? Yep, at the top of the wedge again, maybe up around 920 or so. When gold breaks down it's going to be a fast ride and therefore I consider it less risky trying to find a top than to grab a potentially fast moving breakdown (where my order might get triggered but not be able to get the price I want) and possibly a whippy correction. Again, to each his own. Just be careful when you call someone else's trading technique incorrect or too risky. It's all in how you manage that risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:50:50 PM

Bull Alert! ... At tonight's close, Dorsey/Wright's NASDAQ 100 Bullish % (BPNDX) saw a net gain of 6 stocks to reversing higher PnF buy signal and that is enough to have this narrow major market bullish % reversing back up to 20% (20.00% actual).

Here's StockCharts.com's $BPNDX Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:05:42 PM

OEX Query of PnF signals at this Link

see also last night's MM comments. Link

OI Technical Staff : 1/24/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 9:42:09 PM

On January 15, the VIX.X closed at 23.34. Tonight's closing measure was 27.78. Put and call premiums still rather high relative to 1/15/08.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 9:42:00 PM

Does anyone NOT see the REASON it would have been LESS RISKY to buy a put on a PRECious metals STOCK Link (as stocks were being broadly sold at least SOME precious metals stocks were giving sell signals) versus trying to SHORT GOLD Link 01/15/08 MM?

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 9:17:21 PM

OK ... here's the Sector Bell Curve comparison shown in the 01/18/2008 Market Monitor. It was from 12/31/2007 to 01/18/2008 and would be equivalent to "student body to the left" Link ...

Here's tonight's Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 8:47:44 PM

Bull Alert! ... At tonight's close, Dorsey/Wright's S&P 100 Bullish % (BPOEX) saw a net gain of 7.00% and this was enough to have this narrower major market bullish % reversing back up to 20% (20.00 % actual).

Here's StockCharts.com's $BPOEX Link

Note: StockCharts.com's PnF charts of dividend paying stocks may not truly reflect historical PRICE of the stock. They will "reduce" a stock's price history when the stock pays a dividend. For instance, if a stock did trade $79.00 a year-ago, but has paid a dividend of $1.00, StockCharts's charts (PnF, bar chart, etc) will look as if the stock traded $78.00. This "accounting method" will flaw the true supply/demand picture of a stock and is main reason why their charts look different (generate sell, or buy signals that aren't accurate).

If somebody paid $79.00 for a stock, then they paid $79.00 for it. Not $78.00.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 8:36:14 PM

Bull Alert! ... At tonight's close, Dorsey/Wright's S&P 500 Bullish % (BPSPX) saw a net gain of 3.82% and this was enought to have the major market bullish % reversing back up to 22% (22.49% actual). At a MINIMUM, bears should lock in some gains as some sign that demand is outstripping supply.

Here's StockCharts.com's $BPSPX Link

This would be a great time to now go down and review the SPY chart at the bottom of the MM 1/24/2008 12:59:31. Range of retracement already marked.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 8:21:33 PM

Keene! Gold is considered by most to be a PRECious metal.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 8:20:41 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Sold a COVERED call with the VLO-CZ for $1.30. This OBLIGATES us to be able to sell 100 shares of VLO at $62.50.

We currently hold the RIGHT to buy 100 for $55.00 with the VLO-FK.

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 6:56:45 PM

Jeff, just got back and caught your response to my question about the industry (your 4:55 response). Non-ferrous metals, eh? Hmm, gold? Good, I'm ready to short gold (wink).

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 6:51:35 PM

Valero shuts Corpus Christi refinery unit ... Reuters - Valero shut a compressor on a crude unit at its Corpus Christi, Texas, refinery following an electrical short, according to a Thursday filing with the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission.

VLO $55.33 +4.29% ... ticks higher at $56.30 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 6:45:17 PM

Did anyone look at yesterday's 5-year yield and think ... "who in their right mind would buy a 2.56% yield and hold it for 5-years?"

Not a lot of risk, but certainly not much of a reward either.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 6:40:17 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Anything stand out? Often-times, selling weakness when things turn higher gives a trader time to get covered!

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 6:25:38 PM

Let's take a retracement on FDO from the 09/19/07 high to recent low first. SPX high was 10/11/07. Take a look. FDO similar technicals to KSS in my opinion. FDO maybe more "lower income" than KSS is "upper middle to middle income."

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 6:20:37 PM

Family Dollar Increases Regular Qrtly Dividend (1/17/08) Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 6:19:03 PM

Question to Subscribers! ... Who do you think stands to "benefit" most from stimulus package?

1) Super Rich
2)Upper Middle Income
3) Middle Income
4) Lower Income

There's always a bull market somewhere!

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 6:00:52 PM

Now, get one on Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO) Link ... note though, that RIO did just recently achieve, then exceed its bearish vertical count.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 5:56:47 PM

FCX here's a bar chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 5:30:02 PM

MM trade blotter had us putting FCX on 10/30/07 at $114.50, but covering at $110.22 on 11/02/07 with FCX Dec $115 Puts.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 5:26:02 PM

FCX's PnF chart at this Link

Get those retracement brackets going!

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 5:23:08 PM

3.7 million shares blocked in FCX at $83.43.

Me thinks BIG short from several weeks ago locking in some gains. May be looking to revist ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 5:10:55 PM

Wilbur Ross in takeover talks with Ambac ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 5:05:19 PM

Excellent, excellent discussion taking place on CNBC regarding trader's mentallity.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 5:02:26 PM

MBIA Inc. (MBI) $14.40 -13.30% ... $15.08 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 5:01:42 PM

Ambac Financial (ABK) $11.33 -17.29% ... jumps to $12.90 extended on CNBC report company may be taken over/bought out.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 4:55:12 PM

Keene: Yes, but I'll be VERY general. While the stock's price certainly reflects MARKET knowledge, I'd be looking to sell into rallies some non ferrous metals stocks.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 4:40:45 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 4:37:07 PM

QQQQ $44.90 +1.99% ... $45.26 extended.

Note: 19.1% of recent 10/31/07 high to yesterday's low is $44.18.

(see my 12:53:09 perhaps)

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 4:34:58 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $33.25 +4.13% ... jumps to $34.57 on headline numbers.

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 4:25:15 PM

Jeff, can you share what business your contact is in? That's good feedback.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 4:21:49 PM

Quick Phone Call To Share ... Just talked to industrial business contact on phone. Said over the past week, roughly 7.7% of Q1 orders cancelled.

Not sure RUT.X can make it back to 750, but if it does ....

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 4:19:02 PM

MSFT must be saying some good things--stock is spiking higher after hours here--up about 1.50 to 34.70 as I type (although starting to pull back a little) and that's up from yesterday's 31.93 close.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 4:03:20 PM

Economic reports tomorrow include:

Initial Jobless Claims: -1K. Expected: +19K. Previous: -21K.

Dec Existing Home Sales: -2.2%. Previous: +0.4%.

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 4:02:31 PM

MSFT (and techs) got a nice little rally into the close. Hope Mr. Softee doesn't disappoint tonight.

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 3:56:04 PM

The COMP is approaching potential resistance at its broken uptrend line from October 2002, currently near 2375. The 30-min 130-pma is at 2377 so this is an area that could be tough resistance for the COMP (maybe tomorrow with a small push higher). For now I'm assuming we'll see a pullback from there before another leg up for a larger correction into February. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 3:55:38 PM

You don't need to short/put the highs. Simply wait for the breakdowns.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 3:53:45 PM

Gold ... what to watch out for! ... VERY SIMILAR TECHNICALS begin to unfold in gold as unfolded in Apple Computer (AAPL) on 12/24/07. At least this is what has been on my mind for "wave traders" the last week or so.

Recognize the pattern.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 3:50:13 PM

Valero (VLO) $55.27 +4.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 3:49:11 PM

Trading is all about MANAGING RISK and making adjustments. Then reviewing in hopes of not repeating mistakes time and time again.

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 3:48:16 PM

GOOG is working on follow through to yesterday's bullish hammer candlestick and has managed to get back above its uptrend line from March 2005 near 554 (yesterday's intraday break looks like a bear trap if it continues higher) and it's working on holding above its 200-dma at 569. Link

Today's pulback found support on its uptrend line. I see potential resistance near 600 if it pushes a little higher and then bulls will want to see nothing more than a pullback before heading higher (pink wave count) while bears will want to see it continue lower after this bounce completes (dark red count).

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 3:47:29 PM

01/15/08 Energy Futures screen capture Link

This was the day we SOLD NAKED the VLO March $50 Puts as VLO traded $56.30!

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 3:43:30 PM

Various Energy Futures "Watch List" in my Qcharts at this Link

Long VLO June $55 Call and COVERED CALL March $62.50 Call

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 3:34:42 PM

Yahoo! (YHOO) alert! $21.66 +8.24% ... retraces 19.1% of its recent 10/29/07 relative high to 01/23/08 52-week low. (see MM below)

Linda Piazza : 1/24/2008 3:33:57 PM

Barring a strong move into the close which of course could happen, the SPX will produce a small-bodied candle at resistance near 1340. This is the 23.6 percent retracement of the decline off the October high. The day's high was just beneath the daily 9-ema at 1356, which I watch closely, and further Keltner resistance at about 1361.80 on daily closes.

So, what do you do about holding or closing positions? It's natural to see a consolidation day after such a big move off yesterday's low. It's natural to have that consolidation occur at or slightly below resistance. In normal conditions, we might predict another day or two of consolidation before an attempt to rise toward the descending 10-sma, without being entirely sure whether the attempt would be successful. But as everyone knows, these aren't normal times.

The 15-minute chart suggests that as long as the SPX maintains support above about 1345 on 15-minute closes, all it's doing is consolidating. It suggests that may be true even if it maintains 15-minute closes above about 1338.90. Below that, the conclusion is kind of iffy between 1332 and 1338.90 because the SPX remains in the upper "bullish" half of the 15-minute Keltner channels, but perhaps doesn't truly maintain its upside target. A drop and close below 1332 or so definitely erases that upside target on the 15-minute chart, at least for the time being.

All I can tell you is don't take home more risk than you're comfortable assuming. Taking on too much risk means making emotional decisions about your trading and that's not the best way to make decisions.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 3:21:02 PM

March Crude Oil (cl08h) settled up $2.42, or +2.78% at $89.41.

March Unleaded (rb08h) settled up $0.0355, or +1.56% at $2.3169.

Question: Did March crack improve, or deteriorate today?

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 3:19:43 PM

I just took a look at CME and zowie! When that stock moves it can really move. I had posted this chart on Tuesday showing the completion of 5 waves down and an expectation for a bounce: Link

And bounce it did: Link . It has already achieved a 62% retracement (nearly on the nose) in a total of three days. It took 28 trading days to the Jan 22nd low and only 3 days to retrace 62% of it. The shorts got flamed in this stock. So price has met its objective for a 2nd wave correction but time has not. Also, the pattern for the move up from Tuesday looks like it's going to head a little higher before pulling back. Therefore it would make sense to see some more time spent correcting the decline and that's what I'm showing (dark red).

But as the green wave count shows, the decline from December might have been wave C of an A-B-C pullback from October (similar correction, but in reverse, to the A-B-C bounce off Tuesday's low I showed on the SPX 30-min chart). That would mean we'll only get a pullback (possibly after a little higher first) and then head higher again as CME makes its way to new all-time highs. That would be a bullish heads up for the broader market.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 3:12:40 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/24/2008 3:05:38 PM

The SPX is retesting Keltner support just below 1345, with that support important on 15-minute closes. Below that is support (Fib and Keltner) near 1338.50-1339 on 15-minute closes. Bulls of course want an upside break through the day's high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 2:59:53 PM

GLD's WEEKLY R1 $89.70, WEEKLY R2 $92.02.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 2:58:49 PM

US Dollar Index (DXY) 75.68 -0.94% ... (30-min delayed) ... WEEKLY Pivot violated (76.04). WKLY S1 at 75.55. Note overlap at MONTHLY S1 (75.52)

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 2:55:51 PM

I had mentioned yesterday that the rally off yesterday's low has the potential to be wave C of an A-B-C upward correction from Tuesday morning's low. That's still possible and it's why I think the long side is risky. We're due either a pullback (and in this volatile environment it could easily mean a few hundred DOW points) or another new low. This updated SPX 30-min chart shows it stalled around the Fib projection for the move (1347) and inside the resistance zone from the 30-min 100/130 moving averages (1346-1356) so the more bearish possibility still exists: Link

Assuming we start a pullback, the bulls will want to see it find support around 1320 (broken downtrend line from Jan 14th), and certainly no lower than about 1300 (1303 would be a 62% retracement of the rally from yesterday).

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 2:55:34 PM

Egads the high so far as been our target on the long trade. Now that is really cool!

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 2:55:01 PM

I just got an email from a fellow in Saudi Arabia asking me to use the alert function. Isn't the internet wonderful that we can have people from all over the world trading with us.

Oh and yes of course I will use the alert.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 2:50:43 PM

Jerry! I guess the gold short closed out from 01/15/08

Linda Piazza : 1/24/2008 2:47:59 PM

The SPX needs to break out above 1355.15 or so as a next step in improving its outlook on the 15-minute chart.

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 2:45:36 PM

GLD has bounced back up to the top of its long term parallel up-channel near 90.36. Whether it stops here is anyone's guess but that's the setup for a short play on gold. Upside potential is the top of its shorter term up-channel from August, currently near 92.50. I think Jeff had identified that level as well. So far there's a glaring negative divergence at the test of the previous high and that would confirm the likely failure of this rally if it holds. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 2:45:24 PM

Tax Rebates Deal Announced ... AP Story Link

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 2:42:11 PM

Hit our target of 12398 - betcha didn't think it would make it heh?

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 2:41:35 PM

Ok that is good enough for me. Let's get out here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 2:38:41 PM

Treasury's Paulson:
Rebates should begin with 60 days of package enactment.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 2:37:24 PM

DJ- Energy futures higher on weather, economic stimulus plan

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 2:36:51 PM

President Bush:
Stimulus package is effective, temporary, robust
US economy structurally sound, but dealing with challenges
Urges senate, house to enact package as soon as possible

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 2:36:30 PM

Let's raise the stop to 12359 so we will at least get some profit if it turns on us.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 2:31:20 PM

We are in a dance with the market that changes daily and changes with each market.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 2:30:14 PM

Raise stop to 12334. We have a nice profit now so you don't want to see it wilt away but this is a choppy market today and you have to be especially careful not put the stop too close.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 2:26:50 PM

200-day SMA alert! ... OIX.X 778.44 +3.99% ...

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 2:26:46 PM

Since we have a large traget on this trade I will continue to raise the stop and reduce the risk but the Dance we do with the Market is to make sure we do not raise it enough to get stopped out in the noise and then see the market take off.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 2:25:26 PM


DJ- The U.S. economy will likely experience "below-potential" economic growth this year, but the International Monetary Fund says it still doesn't anticipate a recession. IMF Director of External Affairs says risks remain to the downside.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 2:24:00 PM


DJ- The world is more dependent on the continued growth of developing markets, where many emerging markets have become creditors of the developed markets Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein tells the World Economic Forum.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 2:23:05 PM


DJ- Auto maker halves its loss to $2.8 billion and says it is still on target to return to profitability in 2009, but more job cuts are needed amid slowing U.S. market sales. Will start two buyout programs aimed at North American workers.

F $6.17 -2.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 2:22:09 PM

10-year Yield up 22.7 bp at 3.653%

30-year Yield up 18.7 bp at 4.362%

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 2:21:33 PM

Long from 12336 and the stop is now at 12324 so not a lot at risk anymore. I like a trade when I can reduce my risk like this. Of course I like it better when I get to full profit.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 2:21:19 PM


DJ- Treasury receives bids totaling $14.30 billion and accepts $8.00 billion at a high rate of 1.807%, including $37.51 million of non-competitive tenders, up from $27.16 million at the previous 20-year inflation-indexed bond auction.

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 2:19:36 PM

I want to see a breakdown instead of looking to short a potential top because the sideways consolidation today still holds the potential for another rally leg out of this, with upside potential to SPX 1368 where its downtrend line from Dec 26th is located.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 2:19:35 PM

Raise the stop to 12324. Almost to breakeven.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 2:18:22 PM

President Bust To Make Satement On Stimulus Package At 02:30 PM EST

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 2:17:40 PM

If price were to break below the trend line along today's lows (different picture for the RUT), with confirmation by a break below this morning's first pullback low, I would consider that a signal to get short. If this continues to chop its way higher then it will reinforce my belief that we're in an ending pattern for the leg up from yesterday.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 2:14:37 PM

Raise your stop now to 12304.

Linda Piazza : 1/24/2008 2:09:03 PM

The SPX has been building a nice consolidation zone mostly just above 1339. If the SPX is building this consolidation zone at the midpoint of the eventual move, then the eventual target would be about 1407-1408. This is above the 1380 projected target on the 15-minute Keltner chart, with that target maintained as long as the SPX maintains 15-minute closes above a channel line now at 1341.70. That target is also well above resistance in the 1359-1364 zone that's seen on the daily charts. I would suggest that you not consider the 1370-1380 or the 1407-1408 targets as possibilities until and unless the SPX clears the 10-sma on daily closes.

That's one set of possibilities. The other is that the SPX is consolidating prior to a rollover and drop back down to test that broadening formation that it broke through yesterday morning. That doesn't currently look like the most likely outcome, but you certainly should factor vulnerability to a 1292 test into your trading decisions. You shouldn't hang onto a losing bullish position too long if the SPX rolls down too far. What's too far? That depends on your entry, your time frame and a dozen other factors. Bulls would certainly like to see the SPX maintain 1328-1331 support on 15-minute closes.

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 2:02:54 PM

Correction to my previous chart--just noticed that I left the dates as the week-of dates (I had been looking at a weekly chart first). The actual dates of the lows noted on the SPX chart should be 3/14/07, 8/16/07, 11/26/07 and 1/23/08.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 1:58:22 PM

BIX.X 275.01 +2.93% ... takes a look above WEEKLY R2.

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 1:57:33 PM

Big move in Treasuries today. I would think from a money rotation perspective (out of bonds and into stocks) that this is bullish for the stock market. The returns on Treasuries dropped so low that many will feel equities will have a better return. For the short term that may very well be true.

And who knows, if we're into a large corrective bear market decline it's always possible we'll make another run back up to test the October highs as part of the correction. That's pure speculation on my part but as oversold as the market was, measured by several things such as bullish percents and sentiment, we've certainly got a bullish setup similar to the past.

For example, the ISEE call/put ratio reached a level (near 50) that has seen significant lows in the stock market (the recent low on Jan 17th was 60). I've overlaid the SPX chart with the ISEE chart going back to early 2006 to show previous lows in the ISEE index and lows in the stock market: Link

Is the stock market ready for another blast higher? I think you have to say we've got the setup for it. But equally possible, especially if I throw in some EW analysis, is for a large sideways consolidation between current highs and this week's lows before heading lower again. That would work off the oversold conditions in time rather than price. It would also be a period of significant choppy price action full of whipsaws. Right now it's too early to tell which scenario might play out.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 1:50:43 PM

This may be a very long trade folks.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 1:50:29 PM

Long from 12336 with a stop at 12264.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 1:47:18 PM

White House: President Bush To Comment On Stimulus Package Later Thursday

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 1:46:11 PM

WE got to a high of 12335 so we are not long yet.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 1:35:39 PM

RUT.X 689.72 -0.53% ...

Linda Piazza : 1/24/2008 1:33:44 PM

Potential support on 15-minute closes at 1337.15 and then at 1330.41. Resistance at 1349.02.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 1:33:41 PM

RUT.X 688.63 -0.69% ... probes 19.1% retracement of 10/11/07 relative high to recent lows. (see MM below)

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 1:30:25 PM

YM 12,304

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 1:29:58 PM

DIA $122.80 +0.08% ... trying to find its way around WEEKLY Pivot ($122.86).

TRIN 1.09

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 1:24:54 PM

DJ- Euro Extends Gains To $1.4750

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 1:21:34 PM

Thank you Mike.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 1:21:24 PM

Mike just sent me an email and sure enough I forgot the word "NOT" in my 12:47 post. The last sentence should read, "The little doji the SPX is forming today is very ominous and is telling me 1400 may NOT be in the cards.

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 1:20:01 PM

The consolidation continues more or less sideways except for the RUT which is pulling back a little more. So far both look constructive for another rally leg. But if the sideways consolidations break down instead then we could see a flush to the downside so don't hang on long if that happens.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 1:18:11 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 1:17:23 PM

If we put the target at the 1:1 risk to reward ratio that would be a target at 12408 but I will lower it to 12398.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 1:16:10 PM

I see a long YM at 12336. Stop will be 12264 so adjust the number of contracts if the risk is too much.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 1:01:16 PM

Fed: Did Not Know About Societ General When Making Recent Decision On Rates

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 12:53:09 PM

NASDAQ Comp. (COMPX) 2,334.82 +0.79% ... session ... sits on 19.1% retracement of November high to recent pullback low. (see MM below)

From a bearish perspective, I'd want to at least see PRICE below 2,328.

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 12:49:48 PM

From a slightly more bearish perspective, it's possible the rally leg from yesterday's low has already completed and we're at the start of a larger pullback (or more bearishly, the start of the next leg down). That's why I would want to see the levels where we'd have two equal legs down in today's pullback hold. If prices drop lower then I'd start to think we're into at least a larger pullback and long would be the risky side.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 12:48:28 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 12:47:18 PM

I suspected the SPX would rally and additionally thought the rally would have enough power to at least get back to around 1400. The little doji the SPX is forming today is very ominous and is telling me 1400 may be in the cards. Link

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 12:44:44 PM

Getting another leg down in the consolidation now. Two equal legs down from this morning's high is at SPX 1332.30 (ES 1332.50, YM 12203) so if those levels get tagged and hold then it will be a good setup for another rally leg. If it just bounces up from here instead of making a minor new low, then we're likely going to stay inside a trading range today before proceeding higher again.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 12:29:22 PM

Relative Strength ... VLO vs. SPY Link ... Tends to be WEAK from August (8) to end of a year. Then VLO strengthens early in year to mid-summer.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 12:26:52 PM

Markets are choppy today which is not surprising. It has not been a good trading day for me.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 12:26:04 PM

Relative Strength (Educational) ... Here's why institutional traders/investors focus so much on Relative Strength (Source: Dorsey/Wright & Assoc)
Page 1 Link
Page 2 Link
Page 3 Link
Topics include: Market, Sector, Capitalization, Fundamentals, Wave Counts, Investor Sentiment

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 12:19:49 PM

So far the consolidation in equities today looks bullish. If it pulls back again it could set up a long play for the 5th wave up in the rally off yesterday's low. If it chops higher from here then it would likely finish the rally leg sooner and set up a short play instead. We're in limbo here and I'm simply waiting for a trade to set up.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 12:08:37 PM

Relative Strength Chart of SIL vs. $SPX Link (weak longer-term; improving intermediate-term)

SIL Vs. $HUI Link (SIL a "dog")

Linda Piazza : 1/24/2008 12:05:32 PM

It may not happen this time, but since the SPX's 9-ema is flattening, I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPX drop all the way through the smallest channel to test its bottom support. It's a bit early yet, but that frequently happens during the lunchtime lull period. The 9-ema is at 1342.71, so support might be found there on 15-minute closes. The bottom-of-the-channel support would be at about 1335 on 15-minute closes. The top of the channel's resistance would be at about 1352.80 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 12:04:27 PM

Relative Strength Chart of StreetTracks Gold vs. $SPX Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 12:01:28 PM

Relative Strength Chart of BA vs. DIA Link (see 11:54:39 post)

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 12:00:01 PM

Relative Stength Chart of UTX vs. DIA Link (see 11:54:39 post)

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 11:54:39 AM

INDU/DIA/YM Components sorted by PRICE at this Link

Qcharts "portfolio" option allows us to display 5DyNet%, 20DyNet% and YrNet%(52-weeks). Great tool for quick look at RELATIVE STRENGTH to their index.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 11:45:14 AM

BA $78.13 +2.03% ... 19.1% of recent range at $80.55, 38.2% at $86.99 (see MM below)

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 11:44:05 AM

XOM $84.16 +0.85% ... 38.2% of recent range $84.32. (see MM below)

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 11:43:15 AM

IBM $106.68 +0.54% ... 38.2% of recent range $106.36. (see MM below)

Linda Piazza : 1/24/2008 11:41:25 AM

The SPX's potential 15-minute 9-ema support is now at 1340.52. Nearby resistance is 1354.01.

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 11:34:00 AM

Gold's pattern is giving me the impression it could make a minor new high above the Jan 15th 916.10 high but if the rising wedge pattern is correct then it will be the end of the rally. The negative divergence on MACD, if it holds, supports the bearish rising wedge interpretation. But first I'd like to see it pull back slightly and then press a little higher to finish the pattern: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 11:32:52 AM

Societ General Uncovers Massive Fraud ... AP Story Link

Linda Piazza : 1/24/2008 11:27:56 AM

Triangles everywhere. There's one on the advdec line, too, but that one looks a little like a bearish right triangle, with flat support at about 453. Hmm. The advdec line is now at 679 with potential support now at 472. Bulls don't want the advdec line to drop heavily.

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 11:27:41 AM

Not much to comment on. Both equities and bonds are consolidating. The bounce off the sharp pullback this morning looks corrective and therefore has me thinking we'll get a continuation of the pullback once the current bounce finishes. We might see a retest of this morning's high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 11:22:55 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: Lack of new lows. This STRONGLY suggest shorts turned to cover yesterday. They'll buy back some, then monitor and look for pullback to cover some more. Patient.

BULLS want to stay with RELATIVE STRENGTH! Market down 20%? STRONG stocks down less, say 15%, 10%.

Market down 10%? STRONG stocks down less than 8%.

Linda Piazza : 1/24/2008 11:15:05 AM

Still consolidating. The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1336.83. The consolidation at the top of the range is now taking on a triangular look, perhaps preparatory to breaking out again. The standard expectation after seeing a triangle at the top of the climb would be that the breakout would be to the upside, an expectation that's somewhat supported by where the SPX is located with relationship to the various Keltner channels on the 15-minute chart. I do have to warn, though, that such triangles can be broadened into rectangular consolidation patterns or even bull flags that pull back to some Fib retracement level. Or, they can break to the downside. For now, the standard expectation is higher, but you'd need a 15-minute close above the next resistance at 1352.38 to confirm that.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 11:10:25 AM

Refinance Mortgage Alert! ... strong selling in Treasuries this morning. Flight to safety trade last couple of weeks should provide EXCELLENT opportunity to refinance!

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:55:50 AM

June Oil -7.74% last 20-days ... June Unleaded -7.25% last 20-days. Slight bullish crack

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:53:43 AM

Benchmark VLO $55.00 with an (unch) 20-day crack

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 10:53:09 AM

As I have said I have a bet with a fellow who goes to my gym. I bet Gold would hit 850 before it hit 1000. Well the dang think made it down to 855 and turned around. Ah Gee!!! Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:53:06 AM

March Oil -8.28% last 20-days ... March Unleaded -8.76% last 20-days.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:51:44 AM

Valero (VLO) $55.02 +3.69% ... trades the $55 strike. WKLY Pivot just ahead at $55.30.

Linda Piazza : 1/24/2008 10:47:37 AM

The SPX bounced from just above the 15-minute 9-ema, but its bounce isn't particularly inspiring right now. Is more consolidation needed? Perhaps. The 9-ema is now at 1336.52 and bulls would like that or 1333.61 to hold on 15-minute closes. First resistance now at 1351.74 on 15-minute closes, but it's light. Perhaps not so light that it won't help create that consolidation period.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:48:36 AM

Refinery Level:
Gross Inputs fell by 105,000 B/D
Crude Oil inputs fell by 91,000 B/D
Operable Capacity unchanged at 17,436 B/D
Percent Utilization of Op Capacity edged lower to 86.5% from prior week's 87.10%. Well down from 01/04/08 91.31 (shut downs in progress)
# Day's Supply edged up to 19.0 from prior week's 18.7. Recent inflection low was 01/04/08 18.4.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:42:38 AM

Strategic Pet. Res. (SPR) added just 77K barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:41:26 AM

Heating Oil Stockpiles (>than 500 ppm) down 351K barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:40:16 AM

Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel down 300K barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:39:24 AM

ULS Diesel Stockpiles (0-15 ppm) down 554K barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:38:30 AM

Total Distillate Stockpiles down 1.3 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:34:40 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $57.67 +1.29% ..

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:34:01 AM

Frontier Oil (FTO) $32.28 +2.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:33:38 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $53.97 +1.73% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:33:10 AM

Refinery Op Capacity at 86.5%

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:32:36 AM

Gasoline Stockpiles Up 5 Million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:31:56 AM

Crude Oil Stockpiles Up 2.3 Million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:31:03 AM

MFE $32.85 +9.35% ... ditto

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:30:43 AM

SYMC $16.38 +7.33% ... hot early.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:27:47 AM


Linda Piazza : 1/24/2008 10:27:35 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema has now risen to 1331.90. Bulls would like to see that hold on 15-minute closes. The SPX is at 1340.48 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:27:33 AM

MBIA Inc. (MBI) $15.36 -7.52% ...

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 10:26:23 AM

NDX futures are now testing overnight lows.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:21:31 AM

MTG $16.50 +2.60% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:21:16 AM

ABK $13.18 -20.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:20:55 AM

MBIA Inc. (MBI) $12.85 -22.34% ... hold on!

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:18:48 AM

Bank of America Rumored To Close London Commodities, Energy Desks - DJ Source
Bank of America To Centralize Commodities Trading In New York.

Tab Gilles : 1/24/2008 10:23:24 AM

Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. (SNCR) $25.50 +$4.25 +20% - provides multi-channel transaction management solutions to the communications services, eg. Apple's iPhone. Scheduled to report earnings on Feb. 4th. Link

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 10:18:02 AM

So much for the big push up after the open--it's now been given back and ES and YM are back in the red. Volatility continues and this could be either the end of the rally leg or we'll now start a small consolidation before pushing higher again. The long side, at least from a short term perspective, is now the risky side.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:17:30 AM

White House: Deal On Stimulus "Possible" This Week

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:16:56 AM

Stimulus Plan Also Includes Business Tax Cuts - Aides

Linda Piazza : 1/24/2008 10:15:23 AM

First SPX potential support on the 15-minute chart has now risen to 1341.77. The 9-ema has risen to 1331.20.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:15:57 AM

Tentative Agreement Reached On US Stimulus Plan

DJ- U.S. Congressional and Bush administration negotiators have reached a tentative agreement on an economic stimulus plan they hope will head off, or dull the impact of, a possible recession, Congressional aides said Thursday morning.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson met throughout Wednesday to hash out the agreement, which includes an increase in the loan limits for the Federal Housing Association and government-sponsored agencies Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), the aides said.

Pelosi is now reviewing the plan with fellow Democrats and could make an announcement with Boehner later Thursday.

The plan would provide tax rebates worth from $300 to $1,200. Negotiators hope the rebate checks could reach U.S. tax filers as early as this summer to help boost consumer spending.

The negotiators also agreed to allow business to immediately write off 50% of the costs of capital purchases and to allow small businesses to write off all of the costs of some additional purchases. The agreement would also allow businesses to increase the period of time they can carry back losses from two to five years. The provision would allow companies with losses this year to obtain refunds.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 10:13:11 AM

Dateline WSJ - Sales of existing homes fell 2.2% in December, with the median price dropping 6%. Full story to follow shortly.

. Congressional officials say leading lawmakers and the Bush administration have reached a tentative deal on tax rebates of $300 to $1,200

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:13:47 AM

US December Median Existing Home Prices -6.0% On Year To $208,400
December Existing Home Sales Down 2.2% To 4.89 Million Rate
US Inventory Of Unsold Homes at 9.6 Months Supply

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 10:08:12 AM

The COMP has rallied up to potential resistance at its 30-min 100-pma at 2358. But it has pushed marginally above its downtrend line from Dec 26th near 2354 and the next trend line resistance would be the broken uptrend line from October 2002 near 2377.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:05:32 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) Alert! ... $89.80 +2.17% ... has gapped its 1/14/08 close.

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 10:03:06 AM

If the market can push a little higher the DOW could run into resistance at its downtrend line from Dec 26th near 12400.

Linda Piazza : 1/24/2008 10:01:27 AM

The SPX's first potential support on 15-minute closes has now risen to about 1338. The 9-ema that we often watch is down at the 1327-1330 next potential support zone, but it's still climbing sharply. Bulls would like to see the first support hold, of course, but this is the perfect time (release of information at 10:00 ET) for a pullback to test support.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:00:40 AM

VIX.X 27.34 -5.78% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2008 10:00:25 AM

Swing trade sell covered call alert! ... Let's now sell one (1) of the Valero Energy VLO March $62.50 Calls (VLO-CZ) at the bid of $1.30. ($1.30 x $1.40)

VLO $54.00 +1.79%

Linda Piazza : 1/24/2008 9:55:15 AM

If the SPX keeps climbing today, it's about to face what might be fierce resistance on a daily close. Here's a chart: Link

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 9:50:44 AM

SPX has pushed up to potential resistance at 1347. This is where the Fib projection for the leg up from yesterday's low and the 30-min 100-pma. The 30-min 130-pma is another 11 points higher near 1358. And then above that is the downtrend line from Dec 26th, currently near 1373. So there's room to run but it first needs to get through this 1347 area so be careful if you're long.

Linda Piazza : 1/24/2008 9:47:19 AM

The TRAN is still zooming higher, leading the way higher for the SPX, OEX and Dow. It's in the breakout mode on its 15-minute chart, providing a visual demonstration of the strong upward momentum. However powerful breakout moves can be, however, they're also subject to frequent whipsaws, so keep an eye on the TRAN. It's been a good predictor lately, showing puzzling relative strength the end of last week and the beginning of this week. If there's a pullback in the SPX, OEX and Dow, watch the TRAN to see how significant its pullback is, too, if it's also pulling back. The TRAN is at 4513.75 as I type, just off its 4529.94 high of the day.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 9:35:42 AM

AD line is +850 so not quite to +1000 but it is climbing.

Linda Piazza : 1/24/2008 9:33:36 AM

On the SPX's 15-minute Keltner chart, the climb since about 1330 looks a bit unsupported, so it's possible that after some initial follow through, there could be either a sideways consolidation or a dip back to retest support. It's not happening yet, but keep that possibility in mind.

Linda Piazza : 1/24/2008 9:31:44 AM

Before you place trades this morning, or if you're already in them, remember December's Existing Home Sales at 10:00.

Linda Piazza : 1/24/2008 9:30:38 AM

If there's an SPX pullback early this morning, bulls would like to see support found near 1326-1329 on 15-minute closes. That's first support, with the 9-ema further down, at 1321. The former resistance trendline on its broadening formation, not yet retested, is down at 1305. Bulls would prefer the SPX not drop that far, of course.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 9:22:17 AM

Markets are consolidating at previous day highs so there is a very good possibility that we will break higher once the cash equivalents open at 9:30ET. I suspect the AD line to open above +1000. Link

Keene Little : 1/24/2008 9:22:13 AM

It was a downright boring overnight session in equity futures--ES only moved about 20 points from low to high (smile). It looks like we could open closer to the high end of the overnight range but look for the possibility we'll consolidate for just a bit this morning. There's been quite a bit of selling in bonds since yesterday afternoon (yields are higher) and that could free up some money to rotate into stocks.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2008 9:14:15 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Societe Generale has uncovered a massive 4.9 billion-euro ($7.1 billion) fraud linked to a single rogue futures trader, France's second-largest bank said Thursday.

The company also said it will post additional write-downs of 2.05 billion euros in the fourth quarter, and it's planning a capital increase on the order of 5.5 billion euros in the next few weeks.

The rogue trader, whose role at the bank was to make "plain vanilla" hedges on European stock-market indexes, used his knowledge of the bank's control procedures "to conceal these positions through a scheme of elaborate fictitious transactions," SocGen said in a statement.

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