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Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 10:37:41 PM

March'08 Lumber Link ... looks like it took about 2.5 months.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 10:35:54 PM

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) ... daily interval bar chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 10:32:41 PM

One reminder: Today's news out of S. Africa put a strong bid into many metals commodities. I might remind traders how the fires in N. Florida and S. Georgia put a strong bid into lumber several months ago. Keene noted the bid in lumber and mentioned higher lumber prices could be a sign of recovery in the housing market. Might have been 6/12/07? Link

I reminded traders/investors of the "fire news" and to rationalize the reaction in lumber markets.

Per my 2008 forecast regarding non ferrous metals, let's at least understand today's news regarding the power outages and impact on SUPPLY of metals out of that part of the world. Noted China also seeing impact of power demand.

OI Technical Staff : 1/25/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 9:42:20 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 9:37:25 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 9:31:52 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 6:12:19 PM

SPX was rejected at the August low near 1370 today so the bulls have to ask themselves if we saw a bearish kiss goodbye against previous support turned resistance. Without trying to make it look too confusing, my SPX daily chart shows the potential price action over the next couple of months. For those who are confused by the multiple scenarios that I place on one chart (rather than show multiple charts and having you go back and forth between them), I'll explain what I'll be watching for next week: Link

My best guess is that we're going to see price play out sideways in a triangle consolidation for a 4th wave correction that could take us into February opex. It means a drop back down to test this week's lows will be successful but resistance at or below 1370 will hold and price will bounce up and down a few times. After the triangle consolidation completes (which will work off the extremely oversold conditions), we'll see new lows into March before a much larger upward correction into early summer kicks off.

So the key levels now are 1370 to the upside and 1270 to the downside. If price rallies above 1370 after the current pullback completes, then we should see a rally potentially up to around 1450 and the downtrend line from October (pink wave count).

If price drops below 1270 from here then we should see price stair-step lower into April (grey wave count), staying within the parallel down-channel from October.

So rather than be confused by all the price depictions, and wondering if I'm confused, assume for now we will see choppy price action with lots of whipsaws between 1270 and 1370, probably narrowing as the bounces progress. There will be good price swings to trade but lots of opportunity to get whipped out of your trades as well. But if price breaks out the top or bottom of this range then we'll play that direction.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 5:35:14 PM

SPY goes out at $133.04 -1.44% ... so bullish bias within retracement outlined. Q S2 at $131.27. We'll again note that DIA never has CLOSED below its Q S2. WKLY Pivot Levels for next week will be ... $121.17, $127.11, Piv= $131.93, $137.87, $142.69.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 5:11:53 PM

Don't want to forget that 1/18/08 block at $121. It will be on the chart.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 5:11:01 PM

See the down trade possibility already on Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 5:09:57 PM

DIA goes out at $122.19 -1.00% ... so bullish bias within retracement outlined. Q S2 at $119.21. WKLY Pivot Levels for next week will be ... $112.12, $117.15, Piv= $120.93, $125.96, $129.74.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 4:55:40 PM

QQQQ goes out at $43.99 -2.04% ... so modestly negative bias within retracement outlined.

WEEKLY Pivot Levels for next wee will be $39.60, $41.79, Piv= $43.83, $46.02, $48.06.

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 4:29:54 PM

One possibility to consider for Monday is that we had an a-b-c move down to the low just before 2:00 (for a larger degree wave A) and then the bounce this afternoon was wave B. That wave count would say we'll decline first thing Monday morning and two equal legs down in that case would drop SPX to 1301. It won't be clear which scenario could be playing out until SPX drops below 1320 and keeps going.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 4:13:08 PM

We're at 4.215 billion shares at the NYSE.

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 4:06:57 PM

Looking at the SPX 5-min chart I posted, if the 5th wave down is to achieve equality with the 1st wave (typical wave relationship) then we get just below 1320 for a downside target first thing Monday morning. Then I'll be looking for a larger bounce that retraces some Fib portion of today's decline. And then another leg lower. But in this choppy volatile environment, take your profits when offered. If you're short I'd think seriously about taking some of those profits and decide Monday morning if you want to try to catch a little more downside.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 3:55:30 PM

The SPX is still just bouncing around in that chop zone it's been setting up. Keltner support now at 1327.96 on 15-minute closes and then at 1325.43. Resistance now at 1338.90 on 15-minute closes. Bulls really don't want it to give way here, though.

As I said earlier, a close near here sets up a pretty good looking weekly candle (for bulls) but a bad looking daily one, giving a mixed picture about what will happen next. Consolidation in a choppier, more volatile zone or a decline down to retest lows? Who knows. Assess your risk and decide what to do.

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 3:52:08 PM

Looks like the bounce finished and new lows on the way. Depending on how it finishes for the day we could be set up for a bounce first thing on Monday so be careful with any short positions you're thinking of taking home over the weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 3:49:57 PM

China having power outage problems too ... Link

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 3:43:30 PM

Today's candelsticks have the potential to be bearish engulfing candles which would support the EW count if we see another leg down now. After a little lower and then a bounce on Monday we would very likely see another leg down. But we need to see another leg down to set that up.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 3:41:32 PM

Anglo Gold (AU) $43.02 -4.75% ... S. Africa's biggest gold producer.

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $90.38 +0.33% ... ~$903.80 spot.

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 3:40:40 PM

As shown on this SPX 5-min chart, the bounce get higher than the wave 1 low at 1347.22 otherwise it violates the EW rule that say wave 4 can't overlap wave 1. If it holds and turns back down then we'd get an impulsive 5-wave move down: Link

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 3:40:51 PM

If this market has taught us anything, it's taught us not to count our chickens before they hatch, so I'm still waiting to see whether the SPX's H&S is invalidated or confirmed. We should be getting the effect of market-on-close orders in a few minutes. My reseach in the past has told me that the effect of those MOC may last only a few minutes unless there are huge imbalances, so we'll see if it makes any difference in the price action.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 3:37:58 PM

Looks like Harmony, AngloGold, Impala, Gold Fields

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 3:37:50 PM

Ideally we'll see one more small push higher in equities to give us a small 5-wave move up from the low just before 3:00. That would finish the a-b-c bounce off the low just before 2:00 (for the 4th wave correction in the decline from this morning's high. Then another drop lower would give us an impulsive 5-wave move down and set the short term trend.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 3:37:26 PM

The Bullion Desk Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 3:33:54 PM

I don't see any "news" with SWC anywhere Link

Had to be that S. Africa news. Thanks CNBC.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 3:32:19 PM

Stillwater Mining (SWC) $10.60 +26.79% ...

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 3:30:44 PM

On gold, the broken uptrend line from Tuesday (YG, all-hours) is now nearing 919 which is also where a short term downtrend line from this morning's high is located. I see that as the upside risk for now (and a potential short entry if resistance holds).

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 3:26:33 PM

Potential H&S on the SPX's 15-minute chart means that those of you in bullish positions now want a strong push up through 1342 and beyond to invalidate the formation. I don't make trading decisions based on H&S formations, but I do use them to measure whether bulls are bears are able to succeed. They show that the bears had enough strength to set up the formation and now we'll see if they have enough strength to confirm the formation or if bulls are going to continue buying and invalidate it.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 3:24:42 PM

NASDAQ's 5-day NH/NL has "come together" with its 10-day ratio

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 3:24:32 PM

The little sideways consolidation over the past 90 minutes looks like a continuation pattern that needs a little higher in the current leg up from the low just before 3:00 PM. That should lead to another drop lower and if it does then we'll have a 5-wave move down from this morning's high. It would be an impulsive move and indicate that following a correction of it we'd get another one down.

But any rally back above this morning's low at SPX 1347 (ES 1348.75) from here would leave the pullback as a corrective 3-wave move and muddy the waters as to what's next. So at this point I'm waiting to see what develops after this current bounce finishes.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 3:23:27 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 3:19:02 PM

The SPX needs to clear 1337 on 15-minute closes to begin to improve the tenor that's been in place since about noon today. Then it needs to sustain closes above that level and climb high enough to turn its 9-ema higher again. Until then, it's just testing, caught between the 1329-ish support (layered down to 1326.94 currently) and 1337 (layered up to 1339 currently) support. SPX at 1337.36 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 3:05:16 PM

MGM Mirage (MGM) $70.80 -3.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 3:04:06 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $90.32 +0.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 3:03:43 PM

DJ- 4.6 Quake Hits Noto In Japan's Ishikawa Prefecture

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 3:03:01 PM

CNBC reporting fire at MGM hotel in Las Vegas

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 2:59:38 PM

I heartily agree with Jeff's 2:50:04 post. I've also been saying today that you need to assess how much risk you're taking home with you this weekend, and decide if you want to hold over or lessen that risk. If that's a difficult task to consider, just think back to when you looked at futures on Monday and discovered what was happening, and that might help prompt some risk adjustment if it's needed.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 2:56:33 PM

Keene may have a good explanation for the DJUSHB, at least. Sometime many months ago when everyone on CNBC was saying "bottom" with respect to the housing stocks, Keene warned us that the housing market wouldn't hit a bottom until the housing starts reached 1 million or under. I believe he thought it was between 880,000 and 1 million, and maybe lower in this market. So, when the housing starts did approach that level about a week ago (Was it just last Thursday? So much has happened!), I reminded subscribers in my Wrap of what he'd said and told them that it was time for them to begin reviewing charts, looking at the relative strengths of various builders, and deciding what characteristics they needed to see to believe that it was time to begin stepping into their favored ones. I didn't think it was "the" bottom necessarily, but they certainly have taken off, haven't they? I watched them during the downturns earlier in the week, too, and they outperformed.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 2:54:54 PM

SPY is on its way

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 2:54:41 PM

QQQQ $44.07 ... here's the working Link to my 02:29:01

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 2:50:04 PM

Friday's are a great "pulse day" into a weekend.

Do I hold short, or long at THIS IMPORTANT LEVEL over the weekend? Do I RISK it?

Closes above or below can hint of the true market bias.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 2:49:04 PM

I'm not liking the fact that the SPX can't get back above 1337. That makes this consolidation look just like the one at about 11:15 ET this morning, a possible bear flag. So far, no-harm/no-foul, as the SPX is holding 1329 Keltner support on 15-minute closes and is still well above the 1320-1322 level, so I'm not trying to scare anyone. I am trying to say that you should absolutely know where your stops are and honor them.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 2:47:41 PM

Can't figure out why DJUSHB and BIX.X up so much this week. Any news? (wink)

And has that "news" changed the scenario of SMART MONEY?

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 2:45:24 PM

BIX.X standing still compared to the DJUSHB though.

So, just because I "mention" don't take that as a trade signal.

Jane and I use "alert" for signals that will be followed.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 2:43:58 PM

02:39 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 2:38:59 PM

BIX +13.52% this week. That's roughly equivalent to a 26% SPX gain!

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 2:37:25 PM

It is kind'a like Kroger's grocery stores. If the baked beans start piling up in the stockroom and there's more on the way, time for a sale (lower price) to move that inventory. Once things get more even, then can take the baked beans off sale as supply gets eaten back up.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 2:36:23 PM

I really, really hope that the SPX hasn't already begun settling into that pre-FOMC chop in the middle of its Keltner channels. The central basis line (120-ema) for the 15-minute chart is now near 1337. After all the volatility this week, the last two days of consolidation have flattened that central basis line. Channels that were swooping every which way within the larger one based on that 120-ema have begun to behave themselves a bit better, too. They may be aligning themselves along that 120-ema, too. When that happens, we often see the SPX begin to trade back and forth across the 120-ema without the moves meaning anything much. The 9-ema will align itself along it, and crosses of it won't mean anything much, either. Prices will gradually tighten. I started to say, how can they tighten too much, but the extreme volatility fools me now when I look at a day like today, when the SPX has actually moved in a 41-point range, and think the range hasn't been all that big! Personally, because I don't want my mother-in-law to lose the little she's earning in interest rates and the little her investments are bringing her, and I don't want pension plans to suffer massive losses and all of that, I'd like to see the SPX settle into that pre-FOMC chop from a higher level. We knew all along that the 10-sma might be as good as it got for week.

If the SPX were to close here at the end of the day, the weekly candle actually looks pretty good. The daily chart would show a candle with a body that engulfed yesterday's candle, though, and that wouldn't be a cheering sight.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 2:35:02 PM

What we do learn from the MONTHLY and QUARTERLY pivot levels, and VIOLATIONS of those levels, is that institutional computers were exhausted from sellers. They've got inventory, and they should be set to sell it in a "leg out" fashion on advances.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 2:31:16 PM

Things are trying to settle in at some levels aren't they?

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 2:30:46 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $90.07 -0.01% ... know where you are.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 2:29:01 PM

QQQQ $44.22 ... here's an updated daily interval chart. Retracement set as discussed in other major indexes. Link you can see, MONTHLY and QUARTERLY of no help for support, and the 0% is an assumption low, just as my Andrews Pitchfork (modified schiff) 11/12/07 anchor point was assumtive.

What next week's WEEKLY Pivot Levels will do is give us some levels to begin "dividing" ranges from $41.61 to $41.18 and $46.75.

One thing we might want to begin considering is "what's inside" and "what is not inside" the QQQQ.

Dow is much easier.

SPX is largely financial, thus some major benefit vs. QQQQ this week.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 2:19:16 PM

I'm not too worried about this SPX today yet. My posts and Wrap have made it clear over the last two days that I expected some hesitation at the daily 9-ema (my Keltner charts) or 10-sma (more traditional moving average to follow). However, I will get more worried if the SPX drops much below 1320-1322 and isn't quickly reversed.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 2:18:18 PM

QQQQ $44.34

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 2:17:50 PM

I'm not certain, but yesterday I think there was mention that the QQQQ was a short at these levels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 2:11:28 PM

Assuming this week's highs and lows in the QQQQ are in, and assuming we close here at $44.18, then NEXT WEEK's pivot levels would be ... $39.66, $41.92, Piv= $43.89, $46.15, $48.12.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 2:10:35 PM

Potential SPX Keltner support at 1328.93 on 15-minute closes. (Is anyone else having trouble typing 13-something with respect to the SPX? My fingers want to type 15-something every time!)

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 2:09:35 PM

I follow the charts and find the news interesting but certainly do not take it into consideration when trading.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 2:08:34 PM

OK my turn to jump into this discussion now. Many traders with whom I work step aside from daytrading when economic reports are scheduled. I do not. I totally agree with Linda and Tom Williams in that the big money will move the marekt to their advantage and the move before that report will usually continue - not always but usually.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 2:06:45 PM

QQQQ $44.15 -0.76% ... slips juuuust under its 19.1% retracement.

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 2:02:39 PM

Support (the lows of yesterday's consolidation) broke so watch for a possible bounce back up to the line (on the DOW and SPX) for resistance and a short play setup (if it gets there). I'm going to be in and out for the rest of the day but will provide updates when I can.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 2:01:48 PM

I like to use "the news" for scenarios.

See, I look at a chart and if it looks bearish, or bullish (vertical counts, retracement, etc.), I try and figure out what the heck SMART MONEY knows that I don't know.

Then, when the "news hits" I can rationalize it.

Hey, if a stock has doubled in 6-months and the news hits, might be time to take some profits.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 2:00:02 PM

News versus charts? I'm obviously interested in what charts have to say, but the first time that I ever held over an FOMC meeting taught me that I want to be cautious, too, about big developments. Tom Williams, whose work analyzes volume patterns in association with how the markets move, disparages anything to do with news, though. His bio describes him as having spent 12 years with an "off-the-floor professional trading syndicate," so I guess he'd qualify as "big money" or "smart money," or would have during that 12 years. If he watches news, it's with a contrarian viewpoint, thinking that bad news is often spilled when big money wants to accumulate, and good, when it wants to sell.

When discussing manipulation of the market, he warns that rumors can be deliberately released. Even when the news is not rumors and not from the big money, he says, "they [professional traders, MM's, syndicates, etc.] will use good or bad news to better their trading position and capitalize on known human weaknesses. If the news is bad and if, at that moment, it is to their advantage, the market can be marked down rapidly by the specialist, or market-makers. Weak holders are liable to be shaken out at lower prices . . . . Stop-loss orders can be triggered . . . . Many traders, who short the market . . . can be locked in by a rapid recovery. They then have to cover their position, forcing them to buy, helping the professional money, which has been long all the time. In other words, many traders are liable to fall for 'the sting.'

I'm not specifically referencing the news about the gold miners here. I don't trade gold (too much geopolitical stuff for my tastes) and so don't follow the charts or the news. However, it was Tom Williams' work that allowed me to meet Wednesday's downturn with some equanimity because I had seen signs of accumulation Tuesday (huge volume, big range, spring well off the low of the day). I mentioned what I'd seen Tuesday in a Wednesday morning (1/23/2008 9:27:38) post.

So, how do I deal with news? I look at where I think the markets were likely to be headed anyway, and I look at how that level is dealt with after the news supposedly caused it to be hit. I view news as a precipitate that causes the reaction the charts were showing as likely anyway. It's not always that way, of course, but more often than not. Williams asks what's the effect of the volume pattern on a given day, and I'd say the same about news: What's the ultimate effect of that news?

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 1:54:49 PM

Brazil 2007 Crude Steel Output Rises 9.3% Vs. 2006
December Crude Steel Output Rises 13.8% On Year

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 1:45:09 PM

$GASO:$WTIC ... yesterday's closing measure was 25.90.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 1:38:38 PM

01:00 Energy futures capture at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 1:36:39 PM

Watch out. We're entering a typical stop-running time of day, from about 1:35-1:55 pm ET. The SPX tests 1337.65 support on 15-minute closes with next 15-minute potential support below that at 1329.01.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 1:36:32 PM

That's why many traders and the floor of major exchanges have constant news feeds. Provides the INFORMATION to bring RATIONALIZING.

Some traders always talk about "fear" and "greed." News can actually bring about more rational behavior.

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 1:36:29 PM

Same for the DOW.

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 1:36:05 PM

The weakness in equities continues. SPX is down testing the lows of yesterday's consolidation. This should be support but if it breaks then there are likely many sell stops just below.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 1:34:42 PM

CNBC guest ... analyzing, or "rationalizing" today's news out of S. Africa. Notes that gold was rising BEFORE the government's action.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 1:29:11 PM

Societe Generale Apologizes Over Fraud ... AP Story Link

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 1:28:26 PM

More for general knowledge and heads up information, not for trading.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 1:25:48 PM

OK ... you seemed interested in knowing "the news" about industry of the stock that saw cancelation of orders yesterday though.

Tab Gilles : 1/25/2008 1:22:37 PM

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan suggested in an interview with the Financial Times that the US economy may not be entering a recession. "The reason we have had this extraordinary volatility in stock markets over recent days is that there is extreme uncertainty about the financial and economic outlook," he said.

But Greenspan was quick to add that you "don't gradually fall into a recession, you jump." He said the economy may not be growing, but he is seeing discontinuities in the data, such as manufacturing and jobless claims. And we are seeing "some evidence of potential stabilization in new home sales." Separately, Treasuries are mixed.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 1:21:57 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 1:16:01 PM

Jeff, if your question (1:08) as to whether I trade fundamentals or the chart, it's the chart everytime. News is noise.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 1:10:04 PM

Can't produce gold if you're shut down. Hit both the top and bottom line. Maybe less risky than shorting the commodity.

You still see massive bank failures?

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 1:09:43 PM

The SPX now tests Keltner support at 1337.22 on 15-minute closes. This is a benchmark level marking the upper or bullish half of the Keltner charts and the lower or bearish half. It's near the 1339-ish level that held on most 15-minute closes yesterday.

The SPX has now established a pattern of closing 15-minute periods below the 9-ema, so if you want to see improvement in the tenor since this morning's first rush higher, then you want to see the SPX begin closing 15-minute periods above that 9-ema again. That's at 1347.23 as I type, with the SPX at 1340.80.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 1:08:57 PM

Keene ... you see any gold stocks from S. Africa that might suffer from shut down? Meanwhile, taking some supply off the market?

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 1:08:22 PM

The risk for a gold short here is that it could still jump back up for another retest of its broken uptrend line, currently just above 916 now (on YG all-hours).

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 1:07:06 PM

Gold is breaking down a little with equities. Hmm, surprise surprise. It's still early for both since we don't know yet if either is the start of something bigger to the downside or just a pullback against an uptrend. The euro has continued lower this morning so gold looks to be getting in synch.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 1:04:56 PM

In normal times, the best-guess scenario for today would be kind of action we've gotten. We all feel a bit jittery, however. My best guess for today would not ordinarily include a big swoop lower and it's still not my best guess. Still, we must all factor in vulnerability to a retest of this week's lows, if not more, whenever we're trading in this environment. So, know where the support levels are that you need to see held and where your stops should be, and honor them.

If you're in bullish plays, start thinking ahead about whether you'll carry those positions over the weekend. Next week includes an FOMC meeting. Markets may be particularly susceptible to emotion-based trading on any rumor associated with what the Fed may or may not do. Many of you already had a horrifying Monday last week, and you don't want a weekend when you obsess over the risk you have, either. If it's too much, consider whether you want to lessen it before the weekend.

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 12:53:45 PM

No bounce so this could become more bearish sooner than I thought. It needs to bounce from here (no more than a minor break) in order to keep alive the possibility for another leg up within today's bounce to correct the initial decline.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 12:50:53 PM

RUT.X +0.84% ... QQQQ -0.66%

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 12:37:19 PM

The pullback from the bounce high just past 11:30 AM looks corrective (unless it starts to drop hard to a new low) so I'm thinking another leg up is coming. The upside projection for two equal legs up (for a target) obviously changes depending on where the pullback stops.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 12:35:51 PM

One of the "basics" of technical trading is to have the trade setup as you will. Technicals stated and "levels" identified. THEN trade based on THOSE technical merrits.

If a security does SOMETHING that PROVES YOU WRONG, admit the mistake based on PRIOR technical setup.

Then, and only then, try and figure out WHAT WENT WRONG! Maybe make the adjustment to what the MARKET has had in mind all along.

Don't try and make the technicals confirm YOUR belief. Let the technicals shape your belief.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 12:35:26 PM

Stopped at 12354. WE had three winners in a row so were due for a loss. alert

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 12:33:57 PM

Here are the overnight charts. Not all that bullish heh? Link

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 12:33:34 PM

Jeff, make sure you understand something (EW) before you critique it and use the wrong terminology. You're not making any sense.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 12:30:58 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) ... now I'll "change" my wave a bit and make it look more bearish. Or did I actually make it more bullish? Link

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 12:28:19 PM

If we see equities make another run higher off this morning's low, two equal legs up would be at SPX 1358, in between the 50% and 62% retracements of this morning's decline. Equality in the move up for ES would be at 1361 which is close to a 62% retracement at 1361.50. That's where I'd watch for an opportunity to short it for another leg down to at least match this morning's first drop.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 12:22:25 PM

Now, I had a question as to "why so many different wave counts, so many different waves, and why are they always bearish?" Here, check this out.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 12:21:17 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) here my updated daily interval bar chart with the "bull fit 38.2%" I thought traders might need just in case gold broke to another higher. A little "wave" action with an Andrews Pitchfork (modified schiff) Link

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 12:21:13 PM

Only Russell 2000's MACD is above 0. This does not bode well for our DOW futures long. Link

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 12:19:23 PM

I was able to reduce the risk on the long YM trade because this market made a swing low at around 11:54 that was confirmed when YM made a new swing high at 12409. This told me there was support at 12366 yet I still put the stop well below that swing low because we have to be careful to not get stopped out in the noise.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 12:13:49 PM

I mentioned earlier that the AD ratio was telling us the AD volume was not as strong as it "looked" and sure enough it retraced to make a new daily low. Link

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 12:09:53 PM

Let's reduce our risk a little and move the stop up to 12354 - not much but each moves helps. alert

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 12:05:58 PM

UTX $74.16 +2.17% ... juuuuust about to trade its WKLY R2 (74.23)

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 12:04:50 PM

Note the sector action with the two (2) "AEROspace&Defense"

That would be the BPAERO from your sector bell curve.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 12:03:03 PM

HON might overtake KO for #10 at tonight's close.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 12:02:29 PM

INDU/DIA/YM Components at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 12:01:53 PM

Did I say this could be a long trade? :)

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 11:56:33 AM

Jane entered that YM long just after YM traded its WEEKLY Pivot and TRIN traded up to its WKLY Pivot.

Could be a dinger of a bull trade if TRIN will come back down to 1.00

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 11:54:49 AM

Notice too that YG's rally from this week's low was an attempt to retest its broken uptrend line from December. This is very common (also happened in AAPL at the end of December) and the bearish divergences at the retest help confirm the short play setup. Will it work? Who knows, but I like the setup. Link

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 11:53:24 AM

Me thinks this is going to be lonnngggg trade.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 11:51:52 AM

Next resistance for the SPX is actually just below the SPX's current levelat about 1352.50. How does that work? That's resistance on a 15-minute close and the SPX hasn't produced that close above it yet . . . and, oops, the SPX drops back below it as I type. Next resistance is at 1361.71 on a 15-minute close. Next support is at 1346.58 and then is layered down to 1336.45.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 11:50:23 AM

We are triggered into a long YM at 12406 with a stop at 12349. Target is 12463. alert

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 11:49:53 AM

United Technologies (UTX) Alert! $73.92 +1.87% ... this would 50% retracement of 10/02/07 high to recent low.

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 11:49:06 AM

Got called away for a bit and stepping back I see gold (YG) has broken its uptrend line (using all-hours trading) from Tuesday's low. That line is currently near 915 so watch for a bounce back up (currently trading 913) for a shorting opportunity, or short it here with a stop at 916 (just above its last little bounce high at 11:20 AM). These are attempts to find the top in gold so you must keep your stops tight. The winning trade (assuming it does top out) should be a real winner so a couple of attempts is worth the effort, but only if you keep your stops tight.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 11:42:54 AM

Stop will be 12349 and target is the 1:1 risk to reward ratio.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 11:42:23 AM

YM long at 12406 alert

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 11:42:05 AM

Another thing I'll be monitoring is to look to see if traders that were "waisting time, energy and money" shorting strength the past couple of weeks, that simply missed the move of shorting/putting weakness, get frustrated, and try the "short here" stop morning high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 11:36:10 AM

DIA $123.51 +0.06% ... yesterday it dilly-dallied either side of its WKLY Pivot. Today's gap higher has DIA edging back. WKLY Pivot at $122.86 in my pivot matrix. QCharts' $122.89.

BULLS and BEARS really want to see a test, get a read.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 11:33:23 AM

Now ... just as there are the "short the 52-week high" traders out there, and that's all they try and do (big risk, but look for big gain 1 out of 20) there's also the "buy the 52-week lows" traders out there.

While I was not trying to "buy the low" in VLO, understand yesterday's "sell out the money call" on the heft gain from entry.

Bottom line: I think we should expect SOME profit taking from bulls that "bought the lows" Tuesday morning and Wednesday noon.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 11:29:58 AM

Sorry, Jane, I had sound turned off, too.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 11:28:14 AM

The TRAN is holding up fairly well so far but the USDJPY is pulling back from the day's high. Mixed signals. However, we're just getting what could be expected from the various chart setups, from the expectations that there might be some consolidation of gains after the week we've had, and from the expectation that there might be some stalling ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. We'll have to see what happens this afternoon, but one characteristic of such consolidation is that it flattens oscillators and mixes other signals that people might be used to watching.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 11:28:05 AM

COMPX 2,364.86 +0.16% ... at the gap higher open, it peeked above WKLY Pivot (2,382.67) then consolidates lower.

I think the "come together" trade is now underway. That is ... things get squared up, get in equilibrium and begin to coil.

Monitor the NH/NL ratios next couple of hours, then into TUESDAY of next week.

Have some CONVENTIONAL retracements on your charts, KNOW those levels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 11:24:48 AM

The NASDAQ's 5-day NH/NL ratio of 15.3% ... that's right at the 01/08/08 15.7% "sell signal" for this short-term measure of bullish/bearish leadership.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 11:23:31 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 11:20:37 AM

Fair Value Premium on the DOW futures is 5.50.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 11:14:26 AM

The SPX is barely holding onto the lowest Keltner line support that might be considered as maintaining its upside target. It needs to bounce strongly up through its previous high of the day next, however, or at least continue bouncing up from the ascending trendline that began forming about this time yesterday morning. Remember, we expected a stalling at the daily Keltner resistance from 1359-1363 or perhaps at the daily 10-sma, although it had looked possible that the SPX could punch up toward 1379-1380 first, before pulling back. Possible but not a given, and it hasn't happened yet.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 11:05:06 AM

TRIN and TRINQ measures above DAILY R2s

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 11:04:49 AM

Jane, what is the YM premium to cash today?

Jeff do you have this handy?

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 11:03:55 AM

In any case my long from 12416 was not triggered and is now off the table - alert

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 11:03:34 AM

I showed you the advdec line on a Keltner chart in the link to my 10:05:45 post. The advdec line is now just above 600. See that linked chart for the significance. Basically, bulls don't want to see the advdec line close a 15-minute period below about 550 and certainly not below a line that was then near -200 but is now higher, near -100.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 11:03:28 AM

OK - thanks Jeff.

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 11:03:06 AM

After finding resistance at its downtrend line from Dec 26th, SPX may have topped out for the leg up from Wednesday. Assuming for now that we're going to get at least a larger pullback, it will either set up another rally leg next week (pink) or drop to a new low (dark red). For those who are having trouble following the multiple price paths that I put on my charts, use the key levels identified by the target symbols: Link

If we get a pullback that is then followed by a rally back above this morning's high near 1368 (pink target symbol there) then we'll be on the pink wave count. If price drops back below 1300 then the dark red wave count takes precedence. Notice for now that both wave counts call for a pullback. Hopefully these roadmaps, as I call them, will help you identify key levels to watch.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 11:02:38 AM

I heard that one Jane!

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 11:02:20 AM

I had a request from Saudi Arabia yesterday to do an alert on my YM trades and I guess I just forgot how to do it.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 10:59:07 AM

YM (DOW futures) give another try at daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 10:58:32 AM

Jane! I didn't have my speakers turned on. Trying to conserve as much electricity as I can for our good friends in S. Africa!

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 10:56:36 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

CLOSED out the two (2) SWC-PB at the bid of $1.70 as SWC traded $8.97.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 10:55:57 AM

Oh I need to do al_rt?

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 10:55:05 AM

Jane, I have to use the browser version of the MM (the standalone version won't update) and the al_rt feature doesn't work on the browser version.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 10:49:26 AM

Jeff - Linda - Keene did my alert sound?

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 10:48:58 AM

YM made a high of 12414 so we are not triggered into a long quite yet.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 10:47:40 AM

Stop on this trade will be 12374 and target is the 1:1 risk to reward ratio.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 10:46:30 AM

I have a long YM sitting at 12416 - alert

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 10:38:47 AM

March Palladium (pao8h) Link ... Today's trade above $390 now threatens confirmation of h/s bottom. Tried to close out portion of SWC-PB at $365 PA08h (see 01/22/08 MM at 09:42:24 and 09:44:07), then hold other 1/2 of SWC-PB should right shoulder fail. It didn't, move to sidelines.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 10:37:58 AM

So far, the SPX has maintained its potential upside target, but it's now testing the level that will mark whether it continues to maintain that target. That's at 1355.34 on 15-minute closes although perhaps a drop to 1346.40 will maintain it. The SPX is now at 1354.38.

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 10:36:18 AM

Steep drop so no question now. The top should be in for now.

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 10:34:14 AM

It's a difficult read on the indices this morning. The drop in the techs from this morning's spike high looks impulsive but the others a little less so. Any overlap of yesterday afternoon's high could be the signal that we've seen the top for now. Just dropped as I type and that gives us overlap on the DOW. Now let's see if we get confirmation from the others.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 10:17:48 AM

Mixed information: The TRAN is currently breaking higher, above yesterday's high. We have to see if it continues higher, but that's short-term bullish for the SPX, OEX and Dow. However, the advdec line is going down--not scarily so, but down--and that's not bullish. Bulls want to see the TRAN maintain its attempted breakout.

Tab Gilles : 1/25/2008 10:17:15 AM

SunOpta (STKL) $5.87 -$3.69 (-38.7%)

Jan 24 (Reuters) - Canadian organic food company SunOpta Inc lowered its 2007 earnings forecast, saying earnings within its fruits and bioprocess groups were hurt by "significant issues," that led to write downs and provisions. The company now sees 2007 earnings of 12 cents to 14 cents per share, compared with its previous view of 35 cents to 40 cents a share.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 10:11:35 AM

Currently, the TRAN is testing yesterday's 4550.34 high. The TRAN is at 4539.23 as I type, with a day's high today of 4548.66. What SPX, OEX and Dow bulls want to see is a push to a new high or at least moe sideways movement from the TRAN. What they don't want to see is a double-top (short-term) confirmation with sustained values beneath 4449.11, yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 10:10:50 AM

HONEYWELL 4Q NET UP 18%, SEES 'SOFTER' 2008 ECONOMY

DJ- Aerospace titan posts net income of $689 million, or 91c a share, as it continues to post strong sales growth though it warns of a 'softer' global economy in 2008. Wall Street expected EPS of 91c.

HON $58.15 +3.46% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 10:09:50 AM

CATERPILLAR 4Q NET UP 11% ON OVERSEAS GROWTH

DJ- Heavy-equipment maker posts net profit of $975 million, or $1.50 a share, matching expectations. Revenue rises 10% to $12.14 billion, beating forecasts of $11.79 billion. Dow component says recession-like conditions are developing in the U.S., but believes growth will hold up outside the country and affirms its forecast for a 5% to 15% increase in 2008 earnings.

CAT $66.11 +1.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 10:07:38 AM

N. American Palladium (PAL) $4.26 +7.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 10:06:59 AM

Stillwater Mining (SWC) $9.95 +19.01% ...

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 10:06:43 AM

Bonds continue to sell off this morning but that money obviously isn't rotating into stocks this morning if the opening gap continues to get sold into. SPX so far has found its downtrend line from Dec 26th, currently near 1367, to be resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 10:06:13 AM

PLATINUM AT RECORD ON SUPPLY CUTS

DJ- Spot platinum prices are rocketing to fresh record highs along with gold as electricity problems halt production in South Africa, and prices are expected to ramp even higher. Platinum is eyeing $1,700 an ounce.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 10:05:45 AM

I just realized that my post on the advdec line followed Jane's fairly closely. I agree with Jane's 10:00:33 post and was clearly thinking along the same lines, as I was looking at the advdec line and composing my post while she was already uploading hers.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 10:03:40 AM

Want to see the advdec line (advance/decline line) on a 15-minute Keltner chart? Fascinating, to me at least. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 10:03:22 AM

CNBC saying S. African Gold Miners asked by Govt. To Shut Down Operations to conserve electricity.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 10:01:11 AM

Citigroup Downgrades Brazil Steel Company CSN to "Hold"

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 10:00:33 AM

The bulls may look like they are not in full control but it is hard to argue with an AD volume that looks like this and when it does look like this I revert back to the old saying "Follow the AD volume and the money will follow you." Link

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 9:55:21 AM

The SPX is pausing, as anticipated and as warned (9:08:40 post this morning and posts yesterday), near the daily 10-sma after rising up through it. Turning to the 15-minute chart, I see that the upside Keltner target is now at 1380.18, and it's still preserved as a potential target on that chart. To keep it as a potential target on that 15-minute chart, the SPX needs to maintain 15-minute closes preferably above 1353 but at least above 1350.84. The SPX is at 1361.54 as I type.

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 9:53:14 AM

Sorry, meant 20 point loss on NQ (was looking at something else).

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 9:52:27 AM

So with that said, I see the bulls has in control but not overly strong. This is also supported by the VIX, which is bumping along the bottom of its daily range.

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 9:51:44 AM

The techs got sold hard right after the open with NQ dropping more than 80 points from its opening high. Looks like it could be headed for gap closure. Nice gap and crap setting up.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 9:50:28 AM

This sounds like reading tea leaves but it really does give me a sense of the market.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 9:49:56 AM

Ever since Linda talked about the AD ratio I have found it quite fascinating how it "tells" me where the AD volume may be headed. Notice here the AD volume (absolute) is moving upward but the ratio is heading down telling me the AD volume is not very strong today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 9:47:19 AM

Bull Alert Sector Status Changes ... Autos & Parts, Banks, Gaming, Leisure, Savings & Loans, Steel/Iron.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 9:43:20 AM

VIX.X 26.01 -6.37% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 9:40:53 AM

March Paladium (pa08h) $383.00 +1.84% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 9:38:14 AM

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) $136.56 +1.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 9:37:01 AM

Swing trade puts exit alert! ... for the two (2) Stillwater Mining SWC April $10 Puts (SWC-PB) at the bid of $1.70.

SWC $8.97 +7.29%

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 9:36:43 AM

The SPX is slowing but surely edging towards the 1400 resistance. Link

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 9:36:16 AM

While on ES, a Fib projection for the 2nd leg up in the bounce off Tuesday's low at 162% of the 1st leg up is at 1370.32 (this is different from the SPX projection which has already been exceeded at 1347): Link

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 9:35:27 AM

I am not going to tell that I missed the 855 entry on Gold. I am NOT going to tell you but I did. Darn anyway. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 9:34:57 AM

On 1,000 shares, that gap roughly $890.00

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 9:34:11 AM

VIX making new daily lows and is supporting the bullish AD line.

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 9:33:59 AM

The SPX's current upside target is 1379.75, but the SPX is now approaching its daily 10-sma, so be careful here. Bulls who want to see that Keltner target reached want the SPX to find support on any pullbacks hopefully near 1359 but at least near 1349.40.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 9:33:17 AM

AD line is a bullish +1005.

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 9:32:59 AM

In fact on the all-hours chart of ES you can see the rally since yesterday morning has formed a bearish rising wedge with the top currently near 1372 so watch that level for potential resistance. I'd be real careful about the long side this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 9:32:23 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $90.89 +0.89% ... gaps to a new all-time high.

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 9:30:52 AM

The only thing a little worrisome about the overnight rally in the futures is that it looks corrective--a lot of chop and just a 3-wave move up. Keep an eye on the uptrend line along the lows from yesterday (again the RUT looks different since it pulled back more) since a break of that uptrend line could usher in some strong selling. If you look at all hours on ES for example you can see a very choppy climb higher since early yesterday morning. This kind of choppy move higher is usually an ending pattern.

Keene Little : 1/25/2008 9:26:58 AM

Gold continued its rally last night, stopping me out at even at 912.50. No harm no foul. The dollar is bouncing and the euro is dropping so gold is out of synch at the moment and I suspect it's gold. Using regular hours I see that YG is finding resistance at the top of a parallel up-channel from Tuesday's low, shown on this 3-min chart: Link

So I'm tempted to just reenter a short here with a stop at a new high (which was 924.20 overnight) since the negative divergence on all time frames continues). But I'm watching for a little longer to see how it handles the uptrend line rom Monday's overnight low (using all hours) which is currently near 913.

As for equities, we've got a big gap up to start the trading day and it could be very bullish if we get another leg up to match the one from Wedesday.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 9:26:13 AM

For those long the YG, go ahead and raise your stops to $890 on remaining positions.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 9:24:50 AM

ER2 is now breaking out of its overnight range.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2008 9:23:45 AM

Mini Gold Feb (yg08g) up $13.80, or +1.52% at $919.20.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 9:10:57 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Societe Generale's shocking $7.1 billion fraud loss has reignited speculation that it will be bought, with the likes of BNP Paribas and Barclays floated as potential bidders -- though finding the cash for a deal could prove difficult, analysts say. SocGen's reputation has taken a massive knock after Thursday's revelations that a single trader was able to rack up the loss without anyone noticing.

The No. 2 French bank hasn't disclosed the full details, but analysts have speculated the trader -- thought to be Jerome Kerviel -- could have bet as much as 40 billion euros to 50 billion euros ($58 billion to $73 billion) on European indexes rising, which led to the losses as markets slumped at the start of the week.

Jane Fox : 1/25/2008 9:09:18 AM

It is very obvious from the overnight charts that the NDX futures (NQ) were the winner and the Russell futures (ER2) were the laggard. Mind you though ER2 traded exactly the same as the S&P (ES) and DOW (YM) futures it only closed midrange whereas those other two closed closer to their highs. Link

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2008 9:08:40 AM

The SPX's Keltner target on the 15-minute chart is now near 1379.50. The TRAN, BIX and RLX all hit or even exceeded analogous Keltner targets over the last couple of days. In addition, I have a fitted Fib target near 1407. I fitted it to the rectangular consolidation zone that we had yesterday. Such consolidation sometimes occurs about the midpoint of a directional move. So, those are numbers to keep on the radar screen.

However, we know from the daily standard and Keltner charts that there's resistance on daily closes near 1357-1362 and then again near the 10-sma near 1365. Further resistance is near 1384.

What does all that mean? Maybe nothing, but it suggests that there's a possibility of a punch higher and then a pullback below or to that daily resistance, creating a consolidation-type day. I mentioned the TRAN, BIX and RLX all hitting and even exceeding in some cases the Keltner target analogous to the SPX's at 1379.50. Once they punched higher, however, they began a sideways to sideways-down movement. The TRAN created a doji with a long upper shadow yesterday. Be aware of that possible scenario for the SPX today, too, as you plan your trades.

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