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Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2008 12:49:35 AM

EIA's: Weekly Gross Inputs, Crude Oil Inputs, Refinery Op. Capacity, % Utilization, USO closes and US # Days Supply of Crude Table that I keep at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2008 12:21:47 AM

EIA's This Week In Petroleum Link

EIA's Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Ttl. Distillate and ULS Diesel Table that I keep at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2008 12:09:11 AM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

March Crude (cl08h) settled up $0.69, or +0.75% at $92.33.

March Unleaded (rb08h) settled up $0.0055, or +0.23% at $2.3770.

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 11:59:22 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Traders who bought the post-FOMC spike up got trapped if they didn't bail quickly. The candlestick patterns left on the 60-min charts are bearish reversal patterns so I suspect we'll see some follow through to the downside on Thursday. Wednesday's highs are important--as long as they hold then I believe the market will work its way lower. The only question is how much of a bounce, if any, will we get before heading lower.
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
COMP: Link
RUT: Link

Gold whipped traders Thursday afternoon just as badly as equity traders. I got stopped out for a small profit on my short as it spiked higher but then it collapsed back down and is currently trading below my stop level of 932 (April YG). Such is the life of a trader in a volatile environment, especially around FOMC. So now the question is whether or not gold will continue higher. Since gold is trading mostly in synch with equities, if equities are going to sell off then so too will gold more than likely.

The key level to the downside for gold is Wednesday morning's low at 920.80--break that and it will look like a top is in. Right now it's finding support again on the bottom of its parallel up-channel (using all-hours trading) from last week's low): Link

As shown with the Fib projection now for a 5th wave up, there is upside potential to 966.40 but I'm wondering if it will find lower resistance near 949 (assuming of course it rallies instead of drops below 920.80) where some trend lines and a 62% projection cross early tomorrow morning (pre-market).

Bottom line is my short didn't make much progress (but I pulled a little money out of it) and longs haven't made any progress since last Friday's high. We have to wait for what the market tells us on this one rather than relying on what you or I believe. I have to admit though that I'm having fun trying to find a top since it's driving Jeff to drink.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 11:54:52 PM

yg08j with a "just in case" new bull fit 38.2%. Wave perma-bear could change their anchor low of "wave" Link

By changing an anchor point, you can see how a trader can make the chart look "top is in" to match their bias. Even though the MARKET didn't agree with past "top is in" shorts.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 11:31:53 PM

yg08j with same "bull fit 38.2" shown in yg08g. Keep same Andrews Pitchfork (modified schiff) "wave" Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 11:06:32 PM

Subscriber email: It may be true that the second mouse gets the cheese. Keene might consider that a bear cat only has nine lives!

Jeff's Response ... Worth thinking about for sure. yg08g ripped higher by 10-points in 5-minutes (925.40-936.10) during regular session trade when there was some liquidity (80 contracts).

OI Technical Staff : 1/30/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 9:10:39 PM

I should also clarify comments regarding the mortgage brokers not being a focus of the FBI investigation.

I was thinking more along the lines of dealer-to-dealer activities.

I could see the FBI investigating a publicly traded mortgage broker's employees if they sold shares they held in personal accounts if they knew of NEGATIVE information not yet made public.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 9:10:35 PM

I see that OptionInvestor.com has ABK listed as a put (picked on 1/27/08 at $11.54. If you purchased puts on ABK, are you seeing the same thing as we see in the MBI-QU?

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 9:10:29 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Adjust stop for 3rd time today to try and compensate for tonight's extended. (see 10:20:04, 02:23:27)

Now, also draw your attention to MBI and MBI-QU. (see 03:31:16)

What is so "unusual" about this, that we don't see very often is that MBI at $13.80 is sill $1.75 above our "B"enchmark entry of $12.05 for the option we're trading, yet the OPTION is PRICED THE SAME as it was when MBI was down at $12.05. Back on 1/22/08!

As long-time subscribers know, I was a market maker, where you have to take some NASD/SEC written tests, pass them, to be a professional market maker.

Once you take the test and pass it, a GOOD firm puts you on a simulator for a month to see if you can trade the "fake money" and have anything left at the end of the month

If you pass that test, then they give you $1M and watch you like a hawk. See if you know how to manage RISK.

ONE OF THE RULES to be a market maker is that under ANY MARKET CONDITION, you MUST be WILLING TO PROVIDE LIQUIDITY, or STAND FIRM at a bid or offer in order to provide liquidity to market participants!

OK ... now ... the last couple of days I've mentioned what could be considered "insider information."

Let me tell you. There is ALWAYS somebody, or SEVERAL bodies that have insider information. MARKET MAKERS can have it too.

It is LEGAL to have INSIDER INFORMATION as a MARKET MAKER and still provide a BID/OFFER for a security, even if it is a bid/offer that offers SOME PROTECTION for your firm. (ie: inflated premium, higher implied volatility)

However, AS A person/trader/market maker that has what could be construed as "insider information" it would be AGAINST THE LAW to BENEFIT from that information.

You know (TV, Radio, Print) today's "news" regarding a potential bond insurance downgrade coming. One that could be damaging to the bond insurer.

Now, "pretend" you are a market maker of OPTIONS on the bond insurers. What are you doing with your PUT offers? YOU HAVE TO MAKE A MARKET for them. You registered to make a MARKET in options, then you have to MAKE THE MARKET in the options.

Analysis: ... It was either today's "news" or somebody knows something that has the PUT options suddenly "inflated." We watch them every day, and today was different.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 8:01:56 PM

Swing trade lower stop alert! for the QLD to $70.00 (I don't think it trades there, or lower at the open), but this gives you some guidance should I not be here (I fully intend to be here, but electricity out, or some other unexpected problem, I always plan for). We could have just sold the VYH-AE at this morning open too, but didn't.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 7:57:50 PM

Even if I go to my first raised stop (see 10:20:04 of $72.00, tonight's extended QLD would be below that. A "stop limit" order at $72.00 no help should QLD open $71.50. A "stop market $72.00" is a free-for-all for the market makers.

I say we do this ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 7:49:08 PM

QLD Update alert! ... $73.35 -0.12% ... Daily Pivot levels for tomorrow (based on regular session trade) will be $70.52, $71.93, Piv= $74.27, $75.68, $78.02.

QLD ticking $71.60 extended, and that would be BELOW our raised stop of $73.00.

Will monitor futures tomorrow morning. May make a pre-market stop adjustment. WILL NOT ADJUST BELOW initial PROFILE stop though.

QLD's WEEKLY Pivot is $71.66, WKLY S1 $64.89.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 7:33:33 PM

And that looks like that's about it.

Would take a computer to do that on 100 stocks every day. Let alone 500.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 7:33:29 PM

$NYA.X 8,994.45 -0.57% ... couldn't "get'er done" at 38.2%

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 7:33:22 PM

PBR $109.35 +0.75% ... "gets-er done" for a 3rd-straight session at 61.8%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 7:33:04 PM

YHOO $19.02 -8.60% ... held PRIOR 0% at the close, but would have to "drag it down" with another new 52-weeker at $18.58 today.

Once you start dragging in the opposite direction of your initial bias, better to either step aside, or reduce exposure at a minimum.

Rogue trader at 2:21:17 Link ... still can't figure it out. Maybe that was the "mouse" picture.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:53:25 PM

CSCO $24.36 +1.24% ... couldn't "get'er done" at 19.1%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:51:59 PM

Let's keep reviewing ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:51:28 PM

Pretty sure that "mouse" at 02:14:19 that shorted the 2nd high of the day got trapped with a YM short at 12,470. (wink)

Say cheese!

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:47:42 PM

SWH $39.81 +0.02% ... didn't trade 19.1% or 38.2%. Looks smack in the middle of both.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:46:37 PM

GLD $91.85 +0.76% ... that matches Monday's close.

"Wave hint:" If you use a CONSISTENT wave count and channel, don't keep changing it to fit your personal bias, you'll make some observations that things tend to "get overdone" at lower channel support for a couple of days. But there's usually a mysterious level that only pivot traders know of, that offer the support. Watch that DXY VERY closely the next couple of days if LONG gold. Keep ratcheting up those stops on the rest of what you haven't already taken some profit on.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:41:58 PM

Probably don't even need to look at gold. (wink)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:41:29 PM

DXY 75.11 -0.56% ... couldn't "get'er done" at 19.1% (from 10/09/07 inflection high to recent low).

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:38:51 PM

USO $73.08 +0.13% ... I see Jane sees what some of us have seen setting up. USO "gets'er done" above 38.2%

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:36:53 PM

MO $76.90 +1.02% ... "got-er done" above 61.8%. Couldn't get'er done at 80.9%. Stock has been "mentioned" and traded bullish here in the MM (see my MM trade blotter)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:35:27 PM

MSFT $32.18 -1.28% ... closed back below its 19.1%. Again noting last week's spike to 61.8%

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:32:28 PM

"Mentioned" SPG $86.85 -0.99% ... still "get'n it done" above 19.1%. Couldn't get'er done at 38.2%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:31:15 PM

Heck, let's throw "the Donald" in there for some realestate observation ... "got'er done above 19.1"

TRMP $4.31 -3.36% ... 19.1% at $4.04

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:29:13 PM

FLEX $11.60 +12.51% ... (See 10:33:07 AM EST)Got'er done above 50%, couldn't get'er done at 61.8%

Fibonacci say's anything more than 61.8% is an al_rt to change.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:33:32 PM

AAPL $132.10 +0.42%
MSFT $32.18 -1.28% ... closed below 19.1%
QCOM $40.28 -0.04%
GOOG $548.27 -0.40%
CSCO $24.36 +1.24%
RIMM $93.79 +2.89%
ORCL $20.27 +0.99%
INTC $20.69 +0.92%
GILD $44.00 +1.96%
TEVA $44.82 +0.96%

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:19:18 PM

Ok ... now go back and check all those other alerts you received today (above/below) the level. Where did those "key stocks" close? Did they "get'er done?"

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:18:03 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

As close as the NASDAQ's 10-day NH/NL ratio of 17.8% is to 18.00%, it isn't 18.00% so no X.

Couldn't quite get'er done.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:14:25 PM

Now say it ... "couldn't quite get'er done"

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:13:19 PM

QQQQ ... 60-minute chart we've been looking at for days. Can't seem to close QS2 on hourly basis at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:08:07 PM

See how these institutional computers work. They can take the heat, but they usually sell/buy on the retest of prior exhuastion.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:06:41 PM

QQQQ and QS2

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:06:28 PM

OK, there's are tie with the QQQQ

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 6:02:31 PM

DIA ... 60-minute interval chart (regular session only) with your conventional retracement, your QUARTERLY Pivot retracement, and QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot levels. Link

Note the QS1 and conventional 38.2% and WKLY R1 overlap at today's high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 5:51:10 PM

Oh yes ... so much sense ... check out your DIA.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 5:49:47 PM

INDU and conventional 50-point box Link

Since we were in a column of X, we chart more X's to today's regular session high, but then have to stop.

Note the close of 12,443.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 5:45:24 PM

YM ... 60-minute interval chart (regular session only) with your conventional retracement and QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot levels turned on Link

Further evidence to use REGULAR session?

That looks like the first time this year the YM has been able to trade a WEEKLY R1 too! Heck, if you've had to buy that many WEEKLY S2, you'd probably have to sell a WKLY R1 to get rid of some inventory.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 5:32:44 PM

Makes so much sense with your WEEKLY Pivot levels turned on too.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 5:30:16 PM

That's at least one "line in the sand" we can draw.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 4:25:19 PM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey ... earlier this morning Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 4:22:53 PM

It's a "jungle" in tonight's extended for AMZN

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 4:22:32 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $74.21 +0.35% ... $71.82 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 4:21:25 PM

I see a lot of bars today that look similar to 12/11/07 bars.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 4:19:36 PM

IWM $69.30 -1.14% ... at today's close, I see a daily bar that looks SIMILAR to its 12/11 bar.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 4:13:51 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $74.21 +0.35% ... $78.46 extended.

My 19.1% conventional at $75.89, 38.2% at $81.85.

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 4:12:18 PM

The daily candlesticks on the DOW and SPX look like shooting stars and are potential reversal signals. A red candle tomorrow is needed to confirm the signal.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 4:12:00 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Recently completed forecast was $0.23/$5.37B.

Next quarter was $0.35/$3.92B

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 4:08:18 PM

For gold I just realized I was drawing all that information on the February contract for gold instead of April. It looks the same of course but the upside target should be about 943, possibly as high as 950, for the April contract.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 4:05:04 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $74.21 +0.35% ... slips to $73.97 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 4:05:03 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $74.21 +0.35% ... slips to $73.97 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:59:51 PM

DXY 75.05 -0.65% (30-min delayed) ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:59:27 PM

From what I can see, based on observation, it is the weakness in the mortgage insurers creating jitters. Perhaps the dollar's weakness (Treasury Secretary Paulson's comments from days ago).

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 3:59:09 PM

As for gold, the wave count has now at least cleared up some with this afternoon's rally. It fits well as the 5th wave up in the rally from Jan 22nd. Ideally we'll get one more small push higher to complete a 5-wave move up from this morning's low so as to complete the larger 5th wave: Link . An upside target near 940 (YG, April) now looks good for a top (which could get hit overnight after the international markets react to the Fed rate cut). If you're watching the market overnight, watch for the setup.

This is the way I hunt for tops (and bottoms). When I think the end of the run is near and consider it risky to trade with the trend, I start taking stabs at where I think the top (in this case) will be. After an entry I then pull my stop down as soon as I can and let the market tell me if I'm too early or not. Small wins, or losses, make it relatively painless and then when you do catch the reversal it can be a great ride. It's a way that I can control risk tightly instead of waiting for the breakdown and then wondering how high to place my stop. It works for me but not for everyone.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:58:12 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

One (1) of the VYH-AE stopped/closed at $1.80 after FOMC.

RAISED stop further on QLD to $73.00. Can still get gapped below a stop.

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 3:53:40 PM

So was the sharp SPX decline the true post FOMC action? It certainly shows some sellers waiting ahead, but I don't yet see any kind of trade-worth formation yet that's been broken. If the SPX were to close right here or down to 1354 or so, it will have created a doji at the top of its choppy climb off last Wednesday's low. That's a potential reversal signal, of course, but only a potential one, not a confirmed one. If the 1554 level holds as support on the daily close, the SPX will be maintaining an upside Keltner target and will be closing above its daily 10-sma for a third day, too. The possibility would remain that the SPX could as easily chop its way up toward 1395-1405 as it could fall back toward 1343-1348. It looks to me as if you've got to make your carry-overnight-or-not decisions tonight based on a doji at resistance in a probable bear flag climb, a difficult decision to make. Don't risk more than you can afford to lose on this decision.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:46:49 PM

PBR $109.00 +0.43% ...

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 3:45:50 PM

It looks like a bull trap after all. There were a few who bought that spike up and suddenly decided to bail. Either that or short covering inspired the rally and when that stopped there was no follow through. Regardless it runs the short term bearish now. I expect to see downside follow through tomorrow.

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 3:43:16 PM

Here's a Keltner chart showing what happened this afternoon: Link Sometimes you don't get a chance to think once a level is hit, and you have to have a plan in place before it is. For now, bulls would prefer seeing this 15-minute close back above 1369-1373 or at least see the 1358-1360 support hold.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:41:28 PM

PBR $110.00 +1.35% ...

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 3:40:50 PM

Time for the Boyz to step back in the ring and loose some buy orders and save the market from giving up all of its post-FOMC gain.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:41:08 PM

PBR $110.28 ... if you shorted and didn't like what you saw at 80.9% conventional, then do something about it.

But understand how the options have us unemotional with RISK already defined.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:39:12 PM

I fear that some "mentionings" have some subscribers not fully understanding RISK management. I have profiled PUTS on PBR.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:37:42 PM

PBR alert! $110.86 +2.14% ... after check back at "doji"

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:31:16 PM

Unusual Option Activity alert! ... with MBI $13.56 -15.14 ... the MBI-QU are $2.20 x $2.30.

Unusual as MBI benchmark is +1.50 from entry.

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 3:26:57 PM

Based on daily charts, at this point I think I could make a reasonably sane argument for the SPX to either punch up toward 1395-1405 or drop back toward 1343-1348. Today's closing values--whether pulling back sharply off the high or not--might sway the argument one direction or the other, but the difficulty in making predictions is always there when we see the kind of choppy rise we've seen since last Wednesday on the daily chart. This looks, so far, like a bear flag rise into resistance, but which resistance will matter even if that's true?

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:20:41 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 3:13:18 PM

The SPX is now hitting the Keltner target and potential resistance at about 1384.30 on 15-minute closes. (Pulled back while I was typing and editing.) Other important levels are being tested or approached, such as the 38.2% retracement of the drop from October's high into January's low, with that Fib level near 1386.25. I noted earlier that you should have a plan about how to handle this zone if it was tested today and if one had bullish profits. There's no right or wrong answer, but some might have elected to take immediate partial or full profits, for example, then waited to see what happened next. Some would have decided that they were closing out part or all of their positions by the close today, now that the Fib level had been hit, but would hold on for now, snugging stops up underneath the SPX's current level as it climbed. Some might have taken other steps to hedge their risks.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:12:31 PM

check out that action in the RUT.X with your daily pivots turned on.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:08:07 PM

DIA $126.50

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:07:48 PM

YM alert! 12,669 ... 38.2% conventional. Regular session range of course.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:05:40 PM

VIX.X 24.98 ... gapped to MONTHLY R1. WKLY S1 just below.

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 3:04:00 PM

There will probably be high level interest (PPT) in making sure the market doesn't sell off today. That would completely ruin the effect the Fed is trying to achieve with the additional rate cut (to buoy the stock market to keep people hopeful and willing to continue borrowing and investing). What happens tomorrow will be more telling.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:01:44 PM

XLF $29.20 +2.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:01:27 PM

IUX.X 345.87 +0.57% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:01:13 PM

XBD.X 206.32 +3.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:00:54 PM

BKX.X 93.74 +2.57% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:00:40 PM

BIX.X 286.36 +1.90% ..

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 3:00:18 PM

CNBC ... James Cramer "raising numbers for all financials"

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:52:32 PM

Remember Treasury Paulson's test regarding the dollar!

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 2:52:22 PM

The COMP bounced up and banged its head on its broken uptrend line from October 2002, near 2380. The short term bullish price pattern needs a rally above last Friday's high near 2407 otherwise I see a drop back down in its near future. Link

If it does drop back down, and assuming today's high is in (by no means assured on that yet), then two equal legs down from Friday gives us 2283 and a 2nd leg down equal to 162% of the 1st leg down gives us 2220. A drop back below the pre-FOMC low near 2345 would suggest the top of the bounce is in. If this afternoon's rally makes it a little higher then those downside projections will be higher as well.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:52:07 PM

DXY alert! 75.26 -0.40% (30-minute delayed) ... slips below your MONTHLY 19.1% retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:51:05 PM

Apex Silver (SIL) $14.63 +0.20% ... just sitting here.

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 2:50:42 PM

The SPX did maintain support above Keltner potential support now at 1369.40 on that last 15-minute close. For those with bullish trades, that was somewhat reassuring, but I wouldn't be so reassured that I didn't exercise good trade and account management skills. The current upside target on the 15-minute chart is 1383.26, so I would certainly know how I'd treat a test of the 1383-1390 zone if it should occur this afternoon. I've been pointing out potential targets and also potential resistance in that zone, so if you're in bullish positions and have a good bit of profit in your pocket, you might want to decide soon whether you want to carry it all overnight.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:50:30 PM

SLV $167.23 +1.14% ... holds another 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:50:04 PM

GLD $91.83 +0.73% ... "ground hogged" yesterday's all-time high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:46:32 PM

FOMC statement Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:43:09 PM

Will also "mention" that the benchmark 10-year Yield ($TNX.X) traded its DAILY R2. Long-time subscribers will know what to be looking for in the days, week, months and quarter's ahead.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:37:33 PM

QLD $74.33 +1.21% ... DAILY R2 is $75.49, DAILY Pivot $73.46.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:36:56 PM

Negative daily action in the QQQQ would be a decline BACK below the DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:35:55 PM

QQQQ $44.75 ... session high pegged DAILY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:34:47 PM

VIX.X 28.15 ... edges back under MONTHLY R2.

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 2:34:33 PM

The SPX did maintain its 15- and 30-minute closes above the resistance that it punched through, resistance that is now presumed support. While I would still maintain some skepticism this afternoon, that's at least a better step for bulls than an immediate sharp downturn from the high of the day. Now the SPX has a potential Keltner upside target of about 1382.70, but it's not a trustworthy one, not in this climate. To have that target maintained, this next 15-minute close needs to be above 1369 at a minimum.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:33:31 PM

Swing trade filled alert! ... on one (1) of the VYH-AE at $1.80.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2008 2:33:09 PM

Interesting that the VIX is not making new daily lows in support of the markets new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:31:52 PM

Short squeeze alert! ... PBR $110.87 +2.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:30:41 PM

NYSE Comp. ($NYA.X) alert! 9,130 +0.80% ... 38.2% conventional retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:29:11 PM

TRIN alert! 0.74

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 2:28:52 PM

Interesing reaction out of the bond market. They sold off hard at first (raising yield), recovered back to pre-FOMC and now they're selling off again. It seems the bond market may not be sure about further rate cuts.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:28:46 PM

QLD alert! ... $75.79 ... 19.1% of its own conventional retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:25:48 PM

Currently observing/experiencing some DIVERGENCE to 12/11/07 post-FOMC announcement. see QQQ-AX trade stopped from MM on 12/11/07.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:23:27 PM

Swing trade long raise stop alert! ... to break even ($73.00) in the Ultra QQQQ (QLD) $74.94 +2.04% ...

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 2:23:07 PM

The SPX clearly breaking higher, currently well above the 1368.76 upside target on the 15-minute chart and 1369.08 on the 30-minute chart. However, we haven't seen either a 15-minute or a 30-minute close and lots can happen. So far, so good if you're bullish, but absolutely you need those 15-minute and 30-minute closes to be solidly above that resistance. SPX is now at 1372.69.

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 2:22:59 PM

The top of the bear flag for NDX is currently near 1840 so that's the upside potential I see for this afternoon. But beware the bull trap on this move. The market has not been able to hold gains on ANY of the Fed cuts and I doubt this one will be any different.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2008 2:22:25 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by a half-point and signaled that the door remains open for more cuts.

The central bank lowered the federal funds rate by a half of one percentage point to 3.0%. Financial markets were hoping the Fed would cut decide to cut rates by this amount.

The Fed also announced that it was cutting its discount rate, the interest it charges on direct loans it makes to banks by a half-point to 3.5%. The move signals that the Fed is concerned about the economic outlook.

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 2:21:17 PM

I got stopped out of my gold short--gold spiked up on the news of the cut as did the euro (so the dollar dropped but my feed is 30 minutes delayed on that). The lower rate makes the dollar less competitive so traders will sell it and the inflationary concerns will have traders wanting gold. We'll see how these moves hold into the close and early tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:18:18 PM

CSCO alert! $24.58 +2.16% ... 19.1% conventional

Jane Fox : 1/30/2008 2:17:22 PM

Market is taking off.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:17:05 PM

DIA alert! $125.00 (see recent MM large block comments)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:16:37 PM

On the offer alert! ... with YHOO $19.00 ... VYH-AE are $1.70 x $1.80.

Over the years, we've traded/profiled and monitored so many options, we see a 90

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 2:16:02 PM

I agree with Keene's 2:08:23 warning about the cha-cha-cha dance. Frequently we see a violent expansion of price action that's tamped down, and it's not until late in the day or early the next morning that we get the break from that formation. Not always. Sometimes if you hesitate, you're going to miss the real movement, but wouldn't you rather miss an occasional good move than to enter a trade that can't be considered a quality trade by any stretch of the imagination since we just don't know what the Fed will do and how the market will react? Another good trade will come along. I promise. If you've got some lottery money available, then by all means trade your gut instincts, but otherwise, I'd stay out. Some people are about to make a lot of money: some, lose a lot.

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 2:14:48 PM

Remember, the 2nd mouse gets the cheese.

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 2:14:19 PM

Ready? Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:14:32 PM

For those new to the MM, I should add that my MM Profiles "account" is based on a $10,000.00 trading account. This allows for MANY subscribers, regardless of account size to trade my profiles. Learn about TRADE and ACCOUNT management. RISK management a top priority.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:10:43 PM

Current OPEN MM profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Note: The one (1) PMJ-OS is "equivalent" to being short $10,771.00. That is "full position".

Too often I see less experienced option traders overleveraging. Then should trade move modestly against them, they panic (emotion) and blow out of trade.

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 2:08:23 PM

Keep in mind the cha-cha-cha dance before and after the FOMC announcement. There seems to be a high expectation for a market disappointment from the announcement. Therefore don't be surprised if we get a rally this afternoon (possibly with a helping hand from the PPT) but it could end up being a bull trap.

The smartest thing is to not trust any move this afternoon so if you're profitable in a trade, say thank you and take your money. If you're on the wrong side take your medicine and stop yourself out. Live to trade another day rather than let the higher volatility of this market really punish you if you're on the wrong side

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 2:01:33 PM

Software HOLDRs (SWH) $39.54 -0.65% ... I've got my conventional retracement from $46.04 to $37.20. The 11/02/07 high to recent low. QCharts users should know that the daily interval bars are not accurate.

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 1:57:12 PM

The flattening of prices gives us little to go by on intraday charts for the SPX, but currently, it would take 30-minute closes above about 1368 or below about 1346 to break out on the 30-minute chart. Rolling up to the daily Keltner chart shows that as long as the SPX is producing daily closes above about 1354-1355, it's set a potential upside target at 1383-1390. That's the question, though, isn't it: whether the SPX will remain above about 1354-1355 into the close, and I don't have an answer for that. Chairman Bernanke forgot to call me and let me know the decision and the accompanying statement. However, it's at least apparent to me that SPX investors have been successful in holding the SPX above that Keltner support on daily closes the last couple of days.

My longer-term view is that we're going to see another whoosh down to test support and the shape of the rise off the January lows does nothing to dissuade me from this view. But will it happen now, or soon? The traditional daily chart shows that the SPX has been consolidating a couple of days above the 10-sma, which is now near 1343.60. This is the first time that the SPX has closed above the 10-sma at all in 2008, much less three days in a row, so we should at least give this a little credence, but this steadying has been clearly based on expectations that the Fed will lower rates by 50 basis points.

Barring a strong whoosh down, I'd consider that 10-sma as potential support on daily closes if there's a downturn today. If the SPX climbs instead, I would certainly consider now how I'd treat a test of the possible resistance in the 1383-1390 zone.

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 1:52:54 PM

Gold found support at the bottom of a parallel up-channel from January 18th (parallel to the trend line along the highs since that low): Link . These channels are very effective in showing where potential support and resistance will be. The pullback since Monday still leaves open the possibility for another run higher so that's why I've lowered my stop to 932 (YG, April) to lock in a small profit but more to get out of the way in case it gets another leg higher.

A break below 920 would be a heads up that a breakdown could occur and below 912.30 would confirm a high is in. In the meantime, keep a tight leash on any gold trade here, long or short.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 1:45:04 PM

That recent relative high 01/22/08 was morning high. "News" was FOMC cutting rates 75 bp.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 1:43:49 PM

DXY your daily interval bar chart with MONTHLY Pivot retracement. Maybe a "wave" channel too Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 1:39:46 PM

DXY 75.44 -0.13% (30-minute delayed) ... at lower-end of my "wave" Andrews Pitchfork (modified schiff) channel.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 1:38:27 PM

GLD $91.02 -0.14% ... ~$910.20 spot

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 1:37:52 PM

Gold has been flat for last two hours. From what I see anyway.

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 1:29:13 PM

The natives are getting a little restless out there--got a quick little spike down and then back up. Some final positioning before the FOMC announcement.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 1:26:12 PM

GREAT SIMILARITY for 5-day A/D internal ratios as that found on 12/10/07

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 1:22:00 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 1:07:36 PM

SPX nearest Keltner support looks slightly stronger than resistance, suggesting that the SPX might be likely to climb up toward 1360.50, but does that mean anything? I wouldn't count on it.

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 12:51:59 PM

If NDX can hold inside its bear flag pattern (testing the bottom of it right here) then there is the chance we'll see a post-FOMC rally that could end up being a bull trap. First we'll see if it can hold here.

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 12:49:32 PM

The SPX comes down to test that 1355-ish support on 15-minute closes. Next support beneath that, if that fails, is 1346.40-1348 on 15-minute closes. Nearest resistance (not counting the 9-ema, which I'm discounting at this point) is 1360.94 on 15-minute closes with resistance above that at 1368 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 12:48:04 PM

PBR Candle chart with your conventional retracement. See some "dojis" and "hammers" Link

I am not a "candle sticker" nor do I portend to be one.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2008 12:46:24 PM

Another oh oh. VIX is making new daily highs so there is zero hope the markets will make new daily highs before the FED announcement. Link

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 12:43:27 PM

I've got two different impressions as to what could happen after the FOMC announcement, depending on which index I'm looking at. As already mentioned, the pattern in the techs looks like an upward consolidation since Monday that suggests a breakdown is coming. SPX and DOW have been consolidating sideways since yesterday and suggests a continuation higher, although this one is a little less clear in that regard.

So I've got a pattern for the techs that suggests lower and a pattern for the DOW and SPX that could go either way with a tilt towards the upside. Combining them all I'd have to say I'm leaning towards a downside resolution post-FOMC. Speculators could consider a couple of put options while volatility premium is lower and then take some money off the table quickly if we get a drop and VIX shoots higher.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 12:41:13 PM

PBR's PnF Chart Link ... some sign of "break down" and strong rally back. Looking for retracement as of the range. Excellent risk/reward based on RISK of $6 to a buy signal, and longer-term POTENTIAL downside REWARD of $48 to bearish vertical count. I really don't see PBR trading $48. If it does, it has to trade $95 first.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 12:25:59 PM

Swing trade put alert! ... for one (1) of the Petroleo Brasileiro PBR March $95 Puts (PMJ-OS) at the offer of $3.70 ($3.20 x $3.70)

No stop for now, target $95.

PBT $107.71 -0.75% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 12:18:23 PM

USO $72.61 -0.50% ... slips under conventional 38.2% ...

Jane Fox : 1/30/2008 12:11:14 PM

You know the old saying sometimes you are the windshield and sometimes the bug. Last week we were long YM and took our profits at the daily highs, that's being the windshield. Yesterday made up for it and stopped us out at 12409 with a daily low at 12408, that's being the bug.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 12:05:30 PM

Energy Futures at 11:30 AM EST Link

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 12:03:41 PM

I'm not posting often because I don't want to give the wrong impression, that I think these jits and jots of movement mean a lot before the FOMC meeting. I am watching, however. Currently, the SPX has nearest potential Keltner support near 1355 on 15-minute closes. The 9-ema is near 1358.50, but the SPX has so far been chopping back and forth across it, a sign of choppy consolidation. So, movements above or below that 9-ema don't have the same significance they do at other times. Further resistance is at 1362.85 on 15-minute close and then at 1367.44. However, you don't need nested Keltner channels to tell you these things. At times like this, the historical levels already give you an idea. The SPX is having trouble maintaining 15-minute closes above 1362-1363 and it's mostly maintaining 15-minute closes above 1355 with these historical levels matching up fairly well to the Keltner ones now.

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 11:59:35 AM

The bottom of the bear flag pattern for NDX (the uptrend line from Monday) is just below 1803 (about NQ 1806.50) so watch to see if it holds for another bounce back up.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 11:51:41 AM

Altria (MO) $76.25 +0.21% ... 61.8% conventional. Almost got 80.9% this morning.

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 11:26:15 AM

I don't see anything that gives me a great sense of where markets are going. If you look at the intraday charts, the consolidation near the recent highs looks as if markets want to go higher, but if you study daily charts, the rise off the low looks like a choppy rise into resistance, likely doomed to fail. The advdec line turned back from resistance and still maintains a vulnerability to -1400 to -1450. So, what are you going to believe? I counsel that you not invest too much in trades based on what you believe as it's a tricky market to gauge.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 11:22:30 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: It will take a CLOSING session measure of 18.00% for the NASDAQ's 10-day NH/NL measure to see a 3-box reversal higher. (see also Monday's Wrap)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 11:13:39 AM

QLD $74.14 +0.95% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 11:13:10 AM

QQQQ $44.58 +0.38% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 11:12:49 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $32.28 -0.98% ... 19.1% conventional.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 11:05:38 AM

Simond Property Group (SPG) $88.80 +1.23% ... see 10:57:24

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 11:02:58 AM

EIA Inputs / Refinery

Weekly Gross Inputs -268,000 barrels/day
Crude Oil Inputs -302,000 barrels/day
Refinery Operable Capacity unchanged at 17.43 M B/D
Pct. Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity fell to 84.96% from 86.5%.
# Days Crude Oil Supply rose to 19.4 days from 19.0.

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 11:01:38 AM

NDX is getting close to testing yesterday morning's high at 1816.43. If it stalls there and pulls back we could see an ascending triangle (rising bottom, flat top) form as a continuation pattern rather than the bear flag I showed on its 30-min chart earlier (10:05). It continues to suggest we're going to see a downside resolution post-FOMC.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2008 11:00:46 AM

The mixed bag we saw overnight is continuing intraday. NQ was the weakest because it was the only market that tagged its previous day lows (PDL) but now it is the only market that is trading above its overnight highs.

ES is almost to its ON highs but the YM is not anywhere near its ON highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 10:57:24 AM

Trump Entertainment (TRMP) Alert! $4.70 +5.38% ... see 12/27/07 MM.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2008 10:56:01 AM

I see the VIX heading down but until it makes new daily lows I so not think the markets will make higher highs that will hold.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 10:49:20 AM

EIA US Stockpiles ...
Crude Oil Inventory +3.55 million barrels.
Total Gasoline +3.55 million barrels.
Total Distillate -1.54 million barrels.
ULS Diesel -751K barrels.
Heating Oil -145K barrels.

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 10:48:23 AM

The markets may remain this tough into the FOMC decision or shortly before, and then they may be just as tough, just in another way. Nearest SPX potential Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes is at 1356 and then 1366.33. Nearest support: near 1354.50.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 10:39:48 AM

Yahoo Tgt Cut To $21 From $29 By Canaccord

YHOO $18.99 -8.74% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 10:37:32 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $72.75 -0.31% ... $0.50 box to match futures Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 10:34:39 AM

DJ- Oil Futures: Nymex Crude Drops On US Oil Stockpile Build

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 10:33:07 AM

Flextronics (FLEX) $11.51 +11.63% ... not a big weighting in the QQQQ, but % gainer. Slap your same retracement on FLEX. Note where morning high stopped (61.8%). We noted that in MSFT (see You have your mother's eyes ... from last night's MM)

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 10:30:34 AM

An uptrend line from Monday's low for SPX was broken this morning and a retest of the trend line would also be a retest of yesterday's high near 1364 (ES 1365) so watch for resistance there if the current bounce makes it a little higher.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 10:28:32 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Should have order placed to sell one (1) of the VYH-AE for $1.80. Holding the other, but no new positions. "Dead money" for at least next quarter.

RAISED STOP on QLD to $72.00

Jane Fox : 1/30/2008 10:27:00 AM

How many of you are on the same page as me and think S&P has a good chance of reaching 1400 but finding resistance there? Link

Jane Fox : 1/30/2008 10:25:29 AM

OH oh look at this head and shoulders on the Crude chart. The support at ~85 looks to be setting up as the neckline. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 10:20:04 AM

Swing trade long raise stop alert! ... for the Ultra QQQ (QLD) $73.78 +0.46% ... to $72.00 (from $68.00)

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 10:17:39 AM

The advdec line zoomed up to test potential Keltner resistance that's now at about +100 with even stronger resistance near +500. The advdec line is now at -113. Although the lower line is lower than when I first mentioned this resistance in my 9:55:38 post, the advice is still the same. There's still vulnerability to a downturn to new lows in the advdec line until values above that lower resistance line, at least, are maintained.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 10:16:55 AM

LEGG MASON 3Q NET FALLS 11% ON CHARGE

DJ- Firm posts net income of $154.6 million, or $1.07 a share, which includes 16c in charges. Revenue rises 4.7% to $1.19 billion. Analysts expected EPS of $1.11. Assets under management falls 1% on quarter to $998.5 billion.

LM $71.35 +0.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 10:15:33 AM

BNP PARIBAS 4Q NET DOWN 42% French bank BNP Paribas reports a 42% fall in preliminary 4Q net profit to euro 1 billion, weakened by a write-down related to its monoline insurance exposure and against a backdrop of a deepening crisis. Shares fall 2.26% at 66.07.

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 10:14:49 AM

The RUT is moving higher again after coming down to retest the former resistance trendline off the 1/24, 1/25 and 1/28 highs. So far, this morning, it's held as support on 15-minute closes, but the RUT has not breached either Keltner resistance near 708 nor yesterday's 706.44 high, so the outlook is still mixed. It's at 706.38 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 10:12:13 AM

LEHMAN BROTHERS BOOSTS DIVIDEND

DJ- Firm hikes its annual dividend by 13% to 68c. Dividend for 1Q is 17c, payable Feb. 22 to shareholders on record Feb. 15. Lehman also authorizes a repurchase of up to 100 million shares, which supersedes a previous authorization.

LEH $62.70 +0.27% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 10:11:06 AM

UPS SWINGS TO 4Q LOSS ON PENSION CHARGE

DJ- Package delivery giant posts 4Q loss of $2.58 billion, or $2.46 a share, versus year-ago profit of $1.13 billion. Excluding the pension charge, it earns $1.13 a share, matching expectations. Revenue rises 6.1% to $13.4 billion.

UPS $71.37 +0.63% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 10:10:06 AM

BOEING 4Q NET UP 4%, RAISES OUTLOOK

DJ- Aircraft maker's net rises to $1.03 billion, or $1.36 a share, boosted by cost cuts which the company says are happening faster than expected and resulted in the aerospace giant boosting its 2008 earnings view despite the delay of its 787 Dreamliner.

BA $82.00 +1.35% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 10:08:18 AM

MERRILL, CITI, UBS COULD LOSE BILLIONS ON BOND INSURERS

DJ- Downgrades at major bond insurers could cause banks to take another $40 billion in write-downs, says Oppenheimer's Meredith Whitney, who no longer sees the bailout of monoline insurers MBIA and Ambac as viable.

MER $56.78 -1.20% ...
C $27.56 -1.25% ...

MBI $15.09 -5.56%
ABK $12.95 +0.15% ...

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 10:05:07 AM

While the techs look a little stronger than the others this morning, its price pattern for the climb off Monday morning's low looks very corrective (overlapping highs and lows) and gives it the appearance of a bear flag. It looks to me like we'll see another leg down to match the drop from Friday's high. I don't know how high it could bounce before turning back down but once it breaks down (assuming it will) I'll be able to get a downside target. For now watch for a break of the uptrend line from Monday morning's low. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 10:04:46 AM

MERCK SWINGS TO LOSS ON VIOXX SETTLEMENT

DJ- Drug maker swings to a 4Q loss of $1.63 billion, or 75c a share, hurt by a $4.85 billion charge related to its Vioxx lawsuit settlement and restructuring costs. Excluding items, earnings are 80c a share.

MRK $46.67 -2.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 10:03:50 AM

US GDP SLOWS TO 0.6% GROWTH IN 4Q

DJ- U.S. gross domestic product rises at a 0.6% annual rate October through December, pulling growth for all of 2007 to its lowest speed in five years as the housing slump takes a heavy toll. Slowing consumer spending, inventory liquidation and lower overseas sales also restrain the economy.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 10:03:11 AM

UBS TO POST HEAVY LOSS ON SUBPRIME WRITE-DOWNS

DJ- UBS expects to post a full-year net loss of about CHF4.4 billion, or about $4.02 billion, due to losses tied to the U.S. mortgage market. This will make it one of Europe's banks worst hit by the subprime crisis.

UBS $42.05 -2.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 10:01:57 AM

Fed Accepts $11 Bln In 2-Day RPs
Fed Accepts $6 bln In Overnight RPs

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 10:00:00 AM

The SPX's Keltner support mentioned in my 9:33:29 post did hold as support on the first test this morning. Repeating what I said yesterday, though, the Keltner charts are set up to show potential choppy trading conditions. Right now, potential resistance on 15-minute closes is just ahead, at just under 1359 and then at just under 1365, and potential support on 15-minute closes is just underneath, down to about 1353.40. RSI is near 46.30, in a neutral area, and the setup does not give any prediction as to next direction. I wouldn't necessarily bank on any prediction if offered anyway because setups are notoriously unreliable the day of an FOMC meeting.

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 9:55:38 AM

So far, the advdec line (advance/decline line) held at or near historical support. I see potential resistance massing near +200 and then especially near +500. There's still vulnerability to -1400 to -1450 until values above +200 at least are sustained.

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 9:53:06 AM

I know that at any given time, we have new subscribers, so today I'll be repeating some cautions such as those in the 9:29:47 post, cautions that experienced subscribers have heard many times in the past.

Also, because of the new subscribers, I wanted to reiterate that I concentrate on credit spreads these days. In the past, I day traded or swing traded, but a fragile family member dictated that I adjust my trading style so that I wasn't suddenly abandoning a trade when called away for an emergency. I have a lot of margin tied up right now in trades, so I'm definitely "in the market." However, I'm not setting up day or swing trades for myself either in concert with or in opposition to the comments I'm making on the MM. Those are for your sakes only, and I rather like giving unbiased opinions, something that's difficult at times if you're day or swing trading. If I'm heavily invested in a bullish option trade, for example, it's just human nature that I'd be looking for every bullish sign I could find in the charts. About every six months or so, I get bitten by the bug and will day or swing trade a contract or two of something just to get it out of my system, but my concentration this year is in broadening my repertoire of the types of combination trades in which I engage most frequently in order to moderate vega and theta risk. I was originally hired to represent the self-taught trader who is learning what to watch, and I still consider myself as representing that person.

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 9:47:17 AM

Yesterday we had the techs holding back while the DOW looked stronger. This morning we have the opposite situation. This continues to suggest we could see a lot of choppy price action.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2008 9:47:00 AM

Stop on this trade is a little harder to place but I see a swing high at 12444 so let's put it at 12446. Target is the 1:1 risk to reward ratio.

Please remember trading today will be very slow.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2008 9:45:29 AM

Let's try a YM short at 12398 alert.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2008 9:42:59 AM

This MACD divergence on the Gold has me convinced Gold will see a retracement, one more than this chart is showing, and will give me another chance at a long entry. Link

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 9:42:16 AM

My apologies on last night's pivot tables--I posted the previous day's so here are the tables for today: Link and Link

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 9:42:05 AM

Keltner and historical outlook on the advdec line: The advdec line has potential historical support where it is now, near -1000. Then there's potential Keltner support in the -1400 to -1450 zone. It's set a potential Keltner target near -1400, so you should factor in the possibility of further weakness in equity prices but watch for a potential bounce from that -1400 to -1450 zone.

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 9:38:03 AM

There's the TRAN again, going green. All it's doing right now is rising up to test the Keltner resistance that's analogous to the SPX's resistance just above 1364, though. If it's leading, it's only leading to another test of the SPX's chop zone resistance. The TRAN is at 4586.89 as I type, already pulling back just a little from its resistance test. Not a significant move . . . yet.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2008 9:37:57 AM

Swing trade LEAPs call sell partial alert! ... Let's sell 1/2 of the Yahoo! Inc. YHOO Jan'09 $25 Calls (VYH-AE) should they trade $1.80. Hold the other.

YHOO $18.84 -9.46% ... VYH-AE $1.58 x $1.65.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2008 9:35:17 AM

AD line is -679. bearish but not overly so.

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 9:33:29 AM

Potential support for the SPX at 1353.50-1355.25 on 15-minute closes. Potential resistance at 1364.17 on 15-minute closes.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2008 9:32:44 AM

The futures overnight were (are) a mixed bag. The NDX futures (NQ) actually tagged their previous day lows whereas the other three didn't. Then on the other hand the Russell 2000 futures (ER2) made a series of lower lows and highs so they are a little more bearish than NQ. The S&P futures (ES) made a new overnight high around 9:00ET but its counterpart, DOW futures (YM) did not.

This is all making a determination of which side won the overnight game very hard.

With that said I look at these charts and see the bears with the upper hand. Link

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 9:33:47 AM

How did currency traders interpret today's strong ADP and weak GDP? They appear to have decided that the Fed isn't going to lower rates too much, because the USDJPY currency pair zoomed up. What's "too much" in the eyes of currency traders and are they right? That, I don't know, but I don't think they're interpreting this as meaning any more than 50 basis points, certainly, and maybe not more than 25. Definitely just my opinion, though.

Keene Little : 1/30/2008 9:30:33 AM

Equity futures had a generally negative overnight session but off their lows. It was a choppy overnight session and continued the look of consolidation from yesterday.

For those who shorted gold with me, YG (April contract) has now broken a shelf of support around 926 so the decline could pick up some speed today. The pattern of the decline looks a little choppy and potentially corrective so I've pulled my stop down to 932, just above its last bounce high near 8:00 this morning. The Tuesday morning high of 939.20 is where you could leave your stop if you want to avoid a lot of chop but I like to reduce risk as soon as I can and then give it some breathing room once it starts to work. Link

Linda Piazza : 1/30/2008 9:29:47 AM

I urge caution this morning when making decisions ahead of the FOMC decision or even immediately afterwards. Sometimes the true direction is front-run just ahead of the FOMC decision, but many times there's just widening volatility after the decision. That volatility often gradually settles down into some kind of recognizable pattern, but sometimes the break from that pattern doesn't occur until the next morning. There are all kinds of variations on that scenario, of course, but it happens often enough that you definitely need to consider the possibility that it will happen when you make trading decisions today.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2008 9:21:34 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Employment in the U.S. private sector grew by 130,000 jobs in January, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday.

Adding in some 25,000 government jobs typically added but not covered by the ADP report, it suggests non-farm payrolls grew by about 155,000 in January.

This is much faster than the 70,000 economists expected before the report.

The Labor Department will report the non-farm payrolls number on Friday. Following the ADP data, U.S. stock futures moved off their lows of the session.

According to ADP, employment grew 141,000 in the economy's service-providing sector and declined 11,000 in the goods-producing sector. The drop in goods output was the 14th consecutive monthly decline. Manufacturing employment in January was flat after 18 monthly declines.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2008 9:20:27 AM

Wednesday's big event will be the decision from the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rates, with many expect a follow-up from last week's 75 basis point cut with a reduction of 50 basis points. That decision is due out at 2:15 p.m. Eastern.

"Given the fragile state of the markets, the Fed is unlikely to want to disappoint but how long this can continue remains to be seen," said analysts from the Bank of Scotland. "The Fed have clearly signalled that U.S. interest rates will fall as far as necessary to bring financial markets and the economy back onto a more even keel - even it is means taking risks with price stability."

Jane Fox : 1/30/2008 9:18:26 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy slowed sharply in the fourth quarter, growing at the weakest pace since the economy was pulling out of recession in 2002, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

The 0.6% annualized growth rate in gross domestic product was lower than the 1.1% expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

The economy grew at a 4.9% pace in the third quarter.

Consumer spending and business investments slowed slightly in the fourth quarter, while investments in houses fell at the fastest rate in 26 years. A reduction in inventories was also a major drag on growth in the quarter, with exports growing at a slower pace as well. Read the full government report.

For all of 2007, GDP grew 2.2%, the slowest growth since 2002. GDP increased at a 2.9% rate in 2006.

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