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Keene Little : 2/12/2008 11:40:27 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

The inability to finish today's rally with a 5th wave for the move up from Monday left another 3-wave move and the multiple 3-wave moves up and down since last Thursday's low leaves several possibilities on the charts. At the end of the day Tuesday I showed the SPX 30-min chart with an expectation for antoher 3-wave move up to the 1380 area: Link

On the daily chart that move, and how it would play out into March, is shown in dark red: Link . But I'm having trouble with this interpretation because it requires a move down that finds support above the January low and then a big rally leg into March.

I'm not sure what could get the market excited enough to rally more than 150 SPX points (1500 DOW points) from the February low. If price rallies Wednesday/Thursday then I'll have to respect that possibility but I'll let price prove it to me first.

The pink wave count will jump to my preferred count if price continues its decline on Wednesday, instead of pushing higher as shown in dark red on the 30-min chart above. So I added the pink wave count to the 30-min chart to show how it might look if the decline that started from Tuesday morning's high continues lower out of the gate on Wednesday: Link

So basically play the direction of the break of Tuesday's high or low.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 10:24:11 PM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix with updated levels of trade Link

OI Technical Staff : 2/12/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 9:51:31 PM

SPY, DIA, IWM, QQQQ 60-minute interval montage Link

We did see some intra-day weakness when MBI traded its convertible "discount" level of $12.15, but nothing I'd consider to be alarming to the downside.

Majors all hover at WEEKLY Pivots, which still suggests Op-Ex squaring.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 9:35:23 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 9:24:58 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 4:32:03 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 4:21:34 PM

We've got nothing but 3-wave corrective price structures since last Thursday's low and that says the current bounce is merely a correction to the downtrend. The question now becomes where the bounce will end not whether we're at the start of a new bull run higher (as so many on the Cheerleading Network are saying). This is a very whippy market and it fits the rising wedge idea I'm now thinking we're in.

I think we have another leg up to finish the corrective pattern for SPX and now I'm thinking we could see a rally this week that gets up near SPX 1380. That's "only" about 30 points higher than today's close. That would have ES closing its Feb 5th gap at 1379.25. This would then set up a big leg down into next week but it takes away the very bearish 3rd of a 3rd wave count to the downside. I'll update the daily chart with that idea but in the meantime this 30-min chart shows how it could play out this week: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 4:17:06 PM

Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) $23.43 -2.21% ... surges to $26.30 on headline numbers.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2008 4:15:00 PM

Economic reports for tomorrow include

8:30a.m. Jan Retail & Food Sales. Expected: -0.4%. Previous: -0.4%.

8:30a.m. Jan Retail & Food Sales, Ex-Autos. Expected: +0.2%. Previous: -0.4%.

10:00a.m. Dec Business Inventories. Expected: +0.5%. Previous: +0.4%.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2008 4:13:11 PM

These charts of the overnight market show how weak the NDX futures have been today. The big surprise is the strength in the DOW futures. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 4:12:12 PM

SPY $135.04 +0.96% ... 5 minutes to close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 4:09:58 PM

Intel (INTC) $20.90 +1.06% ... ticks higher at $21.02.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 4:09:22 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $18.07 -1.95% ... called higher at $18.54 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:57:56 PM

EIA Revised 2008, Not 1Q, Oil Consumption Forecast (Correction)DJ- Crude oil futures ended lower Tuesday ahead of a report expected to show U.S. petroleum stockpiles grew last week. Light, sweet crude for March delivery fell 81 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $92.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange settled at $92.86 a barrel, down 67 cents. A report due Wednesday from the Energy Information Administration should indicate U.S. crude stockpiles grew by 2.7 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 8, according to the average forecast by analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. It would be the fifth consecutive increase in crude stockpiles. Amid a softening U.S. economic outlook, another large stockpile boost could pressure crude futures. "The market is expecting the numbers to reflect continued weakening in U.S. oil demand," said Brad Samples, an analyst at Summit Energy in Louisville, Ky. "It's a sign that these economic concerns of the last few weeks are still present." The weekly data are also expected to show that gasoline stockpiles rose by 1.9 million barrels, while stocks of distillates fell by 1.2 million barrels. The prospect of a global economic slowdown has weighed on prices this year. In its latest short-term outlook, released Tuesday, the Energy Information Administration revised its 2008 world oil consumption growth forecast about 200,000 barrels a day lower to 1.4 million barrels a day, "due to increased risks of a global economic slowdown in 2008." The agency also lowered its U.S. oil demand growth forecast to 140,000 barrels a day, from 230,000 barrels a day previously. The day's price action snaps a three-day rally that lifted Nymex crude more than $6 a barrel amid worries about the stability of world oil supply. In Nigeria, as much as 1 million barrels a day in production could be lost amid unrest and production snags in the country. In Venezuela, President Hugo Chavez last weekend threatened to halt oil exports to the U.S. over a legal fight with Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM). Delegates to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries soothed supply concerns a bit Tuesday, suggesting the group may not cut output at its next meeting March 5. An OPEC delegate told Dow Jones Newswires that OPEC until now has been closely monitoring the possibility of a U.S. recession, a strong build-up in U.S. crude inventories and estimations for a seasonal drop in demand in the second quarter - all factors that would potentially support a production cut. "But now, it's not just that," the delegate said. "The market might face a shortage if the Nigerian output continues to suffer and if Venezuela actually cuts off supply to the U.S." Front-month March reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, fell 2.82 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $2.3680 a gallon. March heating oil dropped 1.33 cents, or 0.5%, to $2.5911 a gallon.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:54:30 PM

MBIA Inc. (MBI) Alert! $11.40 -16.5% ... gives up WKLY S2.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 3:46:55 PM

Bounce beginning on the SPX and OEX, but now that potential support from before may be resistance. In particular, there's resistance from 1344.50-1347.50 that might be significant. For the OEX, it ranges up to 621.75.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:43:35 PM

MBI and ABK refuse to give up WKLY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:40:50 PM

OXFORD FUNDING BUYS $2.7 BILLION IN LOANS

DJ- Oxford Funding buys a $2.7 billion portfolio of loans at a 70% discount, in an attempt to cash in on the subprime-fueled credit crisis. Assets are purchased from a national lender in bankruptcy. Oxford doesn't identify the seller.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 3:40:33 PM

There goes the bull flag interpretation as well as the potential Keltner support on the SPX's 15-minute chart. However, I still have to warn, with market-on-close orders approaching, that the SPX's 15-minute RSI is now below 30, at 27.78, so it's now no longer approaching but into the area from which short-term reversals sometimes occur. If you're in bearish trades that you intended to close out today, be aware of the bounce potential. I don't know if it will matter with today's gains so soundly rejected, but I don't discount anything these days, and you shouldn't, either.

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 3:39:40 PM

The COMP found resistance at its downtrend line from Dec 26th and has now broken down from what look like a rising wedge from last Thursday's low: Link . The rising wedge suggests a quick trip back down to the beginning of the pattern (near 2253), a bounce and then continue lower. It now needs to break back above today's high to get the bulls back in control. The daily chart shows downside potential to just above 2000 if 2200 breaks: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:38:03 PM

DIA, SPY slip under WEEKLY Pivots.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:37:45 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $142.91 ... 19.1% conventional.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:31:12 PM

SUN $35.95 -2.83% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:30:59 PM

FTO $35.95 -2.83% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:30:44 PM

TSO $36.47 -1.59% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:30:26 PM

VLO $57.68 -2.10% ...

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 3:30:19 PM

If this pullback continues, it will not leave a pretty candle on the daily chart. Instead, it will leave a candle that pierced the daily 10-sma's and then pulled back sharply. However, I still do have to warn bears that significant potential Keltner support has now been touched on both the SPX and OEX (about 1344.50 on the SPX) and RSI is at 32.88, approaching a level from which reversals are sometimes seen on the 15-minute chart. Sometimes RSI trends on this chart, but often reversals do come from the 30-ish level.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:29:54 PM

US GASOLINE DEMAND FALLS 3.5% ON WEEK

DJ- U.S. gasoline demand drops 3.5% to 8.863 million barrels a day, the lowest since the week ended March 23, according to MasterCard Advisors. Weekly demand is down 3.1% from a year ago, the biggest fall since Dec. 28.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:27:40 PM

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) $113.05 -1.78% ... 80.9% conventional.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 3:27:07 PM

Certainly no buying yet, is there? The SPX is now at the bottom of its bull flag, if that's what it is, and as I type, there's no sign of a bounce from the flag's support, now at about 1346.30. If you've entered a bearish play at some point today, though, do keep this as a possibility. The flag interpretation is a bit of a stretch, as I said earlier, but it's still not completely undone . . . although it's certainly getting there as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:26:56 PM

VIX.X 26.50 -3.98% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:26:32 PM

IWM $70.23 +0.93% ... checks WEEKLY Pivot. Session high was $71.00 strike.

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 3:25:53 PM

The NDX was our canary index after all. Rallies without the techs rarely do well.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:25:47 PM

QQQQ $43.88 -0.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:25:27 PM

NASDAQ Comp (COMPX) 2,323.54 +0.14% ... probes conventional 19.1% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:24:44 PM

US POSTS $17.84B BUDGET SURPLUS IN JANUARY

DJ- The U.S. federal government ran a monthly budget surplus of $17.84 billion in January, which is 53% smaller than a surplus of $38.24 billion in January 2007. Historically, January is a deficit month, and Treasury couldn't explain the surplus.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:23:09 PM

BLACKBERRY OUTAGE CAUSED BY CENTER EXPANSION

DJ- The massive email outage appears to have been caused by Research In Motion's attempt to expand its network operations center, the central hub through which all its emails flow, according to a person familiar with the situation.

RIMM $91.83 -2.79% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:15:53 PM

QQQQ $44.01 -0.15% ... the "generals" slipping below conventional 19.1%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:15:15 PM

NASDAQ Comp (COMPX) 2,330.88 +0.46% ... over 3,000 stocks sitting on conventional 19.1% on average.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 3:13:20 PM

Both the SPX and the OEX hit their descending trendlines off the day's two peak highs and were pushed back. Now both are at the rising trendlines off yesterday's lows, and perhaps even dropping just a little below them as I type. No breakout above the bull flags, if that's what they are, and the drops below the rising trendline off yesterday's low is certainly concerning. Both are bouncing back up to that trendline now.

About the bull flag possibility: the flag is a bit wide in relationship to the movement that preceded it, so in my opinion the flag interpretation might be a bit of a stretch, although I'm not ruling it out. In this market, I'm not ruling anything out. If this attempt to push prices lower is met with buying, we could still see at least another push up to test that trendline off the day's highs if not a break above it.

I still believe what I've believed all day. Those daily 10-sma's are giving these indices problems. I don't know how it will shake out by the end of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:11:16 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 3:08:59 PM

Getting whippy now--very likely opex related here.

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 3:05:01 PM

The wave pattern from yesterday's low is now getting difficult to define and I'll just let further price action clear it up. In the meantime, the sharp bounce back up maintains the possibility for a rally up to the SPX 1369 area, and who knows, maybe even by the close. That would surely get a lot of people feeling bullish after a big rally today (quite possibly inappropriately so).

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:00:46 PM

10-year YIELD $TNX.X ... juuuuust back tested its WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 3:00:13 PM

BIX.X 269.14 +2.56% ... only equity-based index/sector in Pivot Matrix to NOT trade WEEKLY Pivot this week.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 2:55:00 PM

Attempted SPX bounces from the rising trendline's off yesterday's lows. Draw a descending trendline off today's swing highs. Sustained closes above those trendlines will convert the pullback this afternoon into a bull flag type pullback. We would need to see a new high of the day to confirm that, however, with potential resistance at that high of the day.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2008 2:49:55 PM

Just as well we did not triggered into that long YM. Needless to say it is now off the table.

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 2:46:16 PM

NDX has pulled back to its uptrend line from last Thursday's low, near 1790, so if it holds here then the bulls are still hanging on.

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 2:37:45 PM

No surprise, NQ is the first one to go red.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 2:37:43 PM

Both the SPX and the OEX are now coming all the way down to test the rising trendlines off yesterday's lows. Again, you can't read too much bearishness into that, but it's certainly not the action that bulls wanted to see by this point in the day. For the SPX, both that trendline and potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes are at about 1351; and the OEX, at about 623.20.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 2:34:16 PM

Could be a "dinger" last hour of trade.

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 2:33:08 PM

From a daily perspective, the reason I want to test the short side soon, especially if the SPX can make it up to the Fib zone near 1369 (looking a little iffy here) is because of the potential pattern that is set up here. We could be on the cusp of a very strong move down as some 3rd waves start to unfold (dark red): Link

Will it start from some bad news somewhere? Geopolitical? Bond insurers? Fed rate INcrease? Who knows but this kind of setup, if it does start to cascade to the downside, is usually associated with some kind of catalyst that disappoints the market. In other words, the setup is there and then a news item will often be the trigger.

But also from a daily perspective, the bulls are not in trouble until SPX breaks below 1317, last Thursday's low. Until that happens there remains the possibility for a continuation of the rally up to the 1450-1460 area (Fibs and the downtrend line from October), shown in pink. We'll let price lead the way but be very careful of long positions if the market lets go to the downside.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 2:28:17 PM

QQQQ $44.21 +0.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 2:27:54 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $126.61 -2.19% ... sits on WEEKLY Pivot and "old" conventional 0%.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 2:26:17 PM

Another point of reference: For the SPX, the rising trendline off yesterday's low is at anbout 1351, with potential Keltner support now at 1350.94 on 15-minute closes. For the OEX, it's at about 623.20, the exact location of potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 2:23:27 PM

The SPX and OEX are back below their 15-minute 9-ema's. Sigh. This is not an easy market to gauge: hence, all my warnings about this and that, and where you need to have profit-protecting plans. On the short-term, SPX bulls would now like to see potential support just under 1354 hold on pullbacks, and OEX bulls would like to see analogous support near 624.56 hold on 30-minute closes. In both cases, of course, these numbers are close to the 10-sma's seen on the daily charts. I've been warning all day that the SPX and OEX could push up through these moving averages, but that they sometimes proved tough resistance on daily closes, so it's all still a bit iffy right now. Just know where your stops should be as appropriate for you. While realizing that nothing yet has precluded an afternoon rise into that 1368 level for the SPX, it's far from promised, either. Not in this market.

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 2:22:18 PM

Nasty little spike down. That needs to immediately reverse in order to maintain the bullish potential.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 2:13:32 PM

So far, the SPX and OEX are still maintaining the support of their 15-minute 9-ema's, and it looks as if they're likely to do so into the conclusion of this 15-minute period, too. Those are at 1356.15 and 625.61, respectively.

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 2:10:13 PM

With today's push above 1347, last Thursday's high, that level now becomes important as a key level to the downside since an overlap of it would leave the bounce off last Thursday's low as a 3-wave move (needs confirmation of that by dropping back below yesterday's low at 1320.55).

On the 10-min chart I showed the Fib projection to 1369.41 and on the 30-min chart there's the 1368.54 projection so I'm hoping the bulls can keep this rally alive this afternoon and achieve that target. If it drops from here and takes out the low near 1350 at 12:45 PM then the pattern will turn more bearish. Updated 30-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 2:08:49 PM

IndyMac Records First Annual Loss, Scraps Dividend ... AP Story Link

IMB $8.61 +13.28% ... off morning low of $6.80.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 2:06:49 PM

While the RUT may be serving in its sometimes role as an index that leads others, the TRAN isn't leading anywhere today. It's actually looking just slightly weaker from a Keltner standpoint than the SPX, if only a little. That's not what SPX bulls would prefer to see, however.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 2:04:09 PM

Just noticing that the RUT has broken through to a new high for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 2:01:41 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.55 +1.78% ... sitting juuuuust above conventional 61.8%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 2:00:22 PM

RUT.X 711.85 +1.72% ... best levels here after successful backtest of WEEKLY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 1:59:16 PM

Light Keltner resistance for the SPX has snaked just overhead, to 1350.30 on 15-minute closes. For the OEX, it's at 627.16. The 15-minute 9-ema's are now at 1355.71 and 625.43.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2008 1:58:47 PM

Ok the worry warts are starting to come out over the Gold chart - again. We have a head and shoulders building here and us Goldbugs don't like it at all. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 1:58:24 PM

Watch List at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 1:56:00 PM

The SPX and OEX are maintaining the support of their 15-minute 9-ema's on 15-minute closes, but now they need to do more. They need to climb high enough to turn those 9-ema's up more sharply than their gentle upslope right now.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2008 1:54:46 PM

There was a swing high made at 12456 (time was 13:28ET) and this last push upwards was stopped at 12456. This happens all the time on the YM.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 1:53:34 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Note: Option bids may not be accurate.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2008 1:52:30 PM

The stop on the long from 12461 will be 12424

Jane Fox : 2/12/2008 1:52:01 PM

I believe the trend will continue upwards so I want to take advantage of it. I will take YM long at 12461. Be aware daily highs are at 12471 but I think we will break that high. alert

Jane Fox : 2/12/2008 1:50:05 PM

The selloff I saw on the DOW futures looked to be pretty hard but then I stepped back and took and second look. I put fib retracement bracket on the daily range and saw the sellof didn't even reach the 38.20% level of that range. That is not a hard selloff.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 1:42:11 PM

Does it seem like a long, long day already to anyone else but me?

Jane Fox : 2/12/2008 1:35:15 PM

The DOW's reverse and head and shoulders has a ways to go to confirm but I think it will. Link

Jane Fox : 2/12/2008 1:34:13 PM

So far the SPX is trading according to Hoyle. I suspected it would find resistance at 1400 then retrace and find support at the January 28th lows. Now I suspect it will break the 1400 resistance and make a higher high. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 1:33:48 PM

Looking better. The SPX is back above its daily 10-sma, but do keep in mind that propensity for it to sometimes move through that moving average in intraday trading but then to retreat by the close, so that only a candle shadow pierces it. I'm not promising that will happen, but only suggesting that it does sometimes happen and that you should be thinking about what-if scenarios in case it does again today.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 1:25:14 PM

Looking a little better. The SPX and OEX have both made it through the resistance bands that were showing up on their 3-, 5- and 7-minute charts. Now, the next task is for them both to maintain the support of their 15-minute 9-ema's, at 1354.68 for SPX and 624.92 for the OEX. Then the next task is to rise quickly enough to turn those 9-ema's higher. Then both have to get through their previous highs of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 1:20:05 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 1:16:48 PM

If the bulls can keep this bounce going, this updated SPX 10-min chart shows the projection at 1369.41 where the 5th wave would equal the 1st wave in the rally from yesterday's low: Link . It should have bearish divergence against this morning's high and it's where I'll be looking for a short play to set up. If it instead turns back down before making a new high then the wave pattern would become less clear and I'll have to wait for some further clarity.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 1:14:30 PM

Shorter-interval charts such as the 3, 5 and 7-minute charts suggest considerable potential resistance now in the 1355.76-1357 zone for the SPX and 625.75-625.90 zone for the OEX. Now that the indices have dropped below those zones, it may take some time and some conviction on the part of bulls to push prices back above them. In the meantime, SPX bulls want the SPX to maintain the support of the 9-ema now at about 1354.40 (624.80 for the OEX) on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 1:04:40 PM

Here we are again with 15-minute 9-ema tests on the SPX and OEX, except this time they're occurring as the SPX and OEX rise to test them. The SPX's is currently at about 1354.30, and the OEX's, at about 624.80. Both indices need to clear these numbers, then maintain 15-minute closes at or above them to stabilize. Then they need to begin climbing high enough to turn those averages higher again.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 1:02:53 PM

SPY $135.50 +1.30% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 1:02:26 PM

MBIA (MBI) $12.15 ... checks back after session low of 11.58.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:58:16 PM

EIA: Drop in 2Q Global Oil Use Vs. Q1 33% More Than Yr-Ago

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:57:34 PM

EIA: 2Q Global Oil Use Seen -1.13M B/D Vs. Q1

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 12:53:02 PM

In my 12:52:22 post, the OEX number should have been 624.60, not 625.60 as I first typed.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 12:52:22 PM

SPX and OEX bulls need to see a bounce. I don't really know what to tell you about what's happening. While bulls would have preferred to see the SPX and OEX steady at higher numbers, these markets remain volatile and perhaps we should give some leeway due to that volatility. However, the SPX now needs to bounce above and stay above about 1353.90, and the OEX, about 624.60. Soon.

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 12:51:00 PM

The uptrend line from yesterday morning, currently near SPX 1348, is the last line of defense for the bulls. If that line breaks then it's going to start looking a lot more bearish, especially with NDX leading the way to the downside since today's highs.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:46:32 PM

VIX.X 26.28 -4.78% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:45:49 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bearish position in MBIA, Inc.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:45:33 PM

MBI $11.92 -12.29% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:45:05 PM

Swing trade put alert! ... for an additional MBIA Inc. MBI May $7.50 Put (MBI-QU) at the offer of $1.50.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:43:28 PM

Would be a negative to see majors back under WEEKLY Pivots.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:43:01 PM

SPY $135.28 +1.14% ... benchmark.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 12:42:34 PM

One thing that's not so cheering for bulls is to see the VIX climbing since about 11:00 am ET. The Keltner setup suggests that it may be aiming toward 26.70, being currently at 26.24. Equity bulls would like to see it drop below about 26 instead and stay there. Sometimes the movements of the VIX are a little goofy during opex week, though, so it's not always easy to determine whether its movements are predictive of equity movements. Maybe Jane has some observations to offer.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:42:10 PM

MBIA (MBI) Alert! $12.15 -10.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:40:45 PM

CSCO $23.57 +0.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:40:31 PM

GOOG $524.90 +0.71% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:40:14 PM

QCOM $41.77 -0.21% ...

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 12:40:06 PM

NDX looks like it's intent on closing this morning's gap up. It's relative weakness today continues to be a caution flag for the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:39:59 PM

MSFT $28.13 -0.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:39:34 PM

AAPL $127.45 -1.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:39:08 PM

QQQQ $44.18 +0.25% ... back to check 19.1% conventional.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:32:27 PM

MBI's session low has been, been ... $12.20.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 12:32:13 PM

Next support for the SPX, support that should be stronger, is at 1350.36, important on 15-minute closes. Short-term bulls didn't want to see the SPX drop that far, though. A 15-minute close below that questions that upside potential target. For the OEX, the next support below that being tested currently is at 622.90 on 15-minute closes.

So far, the SPX and OEX are just testing the bottom of their smallest channels and, while it's uncomfortable to endure for those in bullish trades and maybe triggering stops for some of you who can't afford to let them drop too far, the action isn't particularly alarming. Too much further of a drop and it will certainly become so, though.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:31:55 PM

GoldCorp (GG) $36.31 -2.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:31:34 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $89.43 -2.08% ... how much concern?

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:30:49 PM

MBIA Inc. (MBI) $12.40 -8.68% ... some concern here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:30:17 PM

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) $115.00 -0.08% ... slips red.

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 12:29:00 PM

I was just going to post the same thing as Linda--the pullback needs to find support around here if there's to be a 5th wave up to a new high.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2008 12:28:04 PM

Here are the overnight charts and interestingly the NQ (NDX futures) is the weaker market. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 12:24:15 PM

Here are the anticipated 15-minute 9-ema tests. In fact, the SPX, at 1355.40 as I type, is just a little below its 15-minute 9-ema, but still testing. A drop to the bottom of the SPX's smallest channel is not uncommon during the lunchtime lull, with the bottom of that channel now at 1354.20, but bulls want the SPX to steady in this zone and then begin a bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:22:56 PM

MBIA Inc. (MBI) $12.52 -7.80% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:22:28 PM

US PRIME DELINQUENCY RATE RISES

DJ- At the end of September, nearly 4% of prime mortgages were past due or in foreclosure, the highest rate since the Mortgage Bankers Association started tracking them separately in 1998, The New York Times reports.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:21:42 PM

MOLSON COORS 4Q NET JUMPS 72% ON TAX GAIN

DJ- Beer maker's 4Q net rises 74% to $173.2 million, or 95c a share, amid income tax benefits while Canadian volume fell markedly. Excluding items, net was 73c a share, compared with analysts' views of 65c.

TAP $48.45 +6.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:18:11 PM

MONSANTO BOOSTS VIEW ON ROUNDUP, CORN SALES

DJ- Agribusiness giant boosts its fiscal 2008 per-share earnings estimate by 20c a share to $2.70 to $2.80 a share. Wall Street expects $2.81. Hike comes on a 'revival' in its Round-Up business and strong early-season corn orders.

MON $116.24 +1.93% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:09:40 PM

GM SWINGS TO 4Q LOSS, IN UNION BUYOUT PACT

DJ- Auto maker swings to a loss of $722 million, or $1.28 a share, as the slowing U.S. economy challenges its turnaround. Excluding charges, adjusted 4Q profit is 8c a share, which includes a $1.6 billion tax benefit.

GM $27.48 +1.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:08:39 PM

ECONOMISTS DON'T SEE RECESSION, FED SURVEY SHOWS

DJ- The U.S. economy is likely to escape a recession, a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia survey of economists shows. On an annual average over annual average basis, U.S. GDP is seen rising by 1.8% in 2008 and by 2.8% in 2009.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:07:14 PM

Schering Plough (SGP) $21.78 +5.57% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:06:43 PM

Qwest Communications (Q) $5.42 +5.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:06:12 PM

US STOCKS UP AFTER FED SURVEY, EARNINGS, BUFFETT

DJ- U.S. stocks make further gains after Philadelphia Fed survey says economists don't see a recession, Warren Buffett helps calm investors on an offer to reinsure $800 billion of municipal bonds, and a slew of positive earnings news from Qwest, Schering-Plough and others add to positive sentiment.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 12:05:18 PM

Fed's Yellen:
Clear Fed Objective To Avoid Negative Feedback In Econ
Fiscal Package May Help Econ in 2H08, Early 2009
Fiscal Package May Help Econ At Weakest Poin
Fiscal Package Won't Have Permanent Impact on GDP
US Election Year Shouldn't Affect Economy
Fed, And Other, Have Plenty Of Soul Searching To Do
Fed Not Entirely Immune From Blame For Subprime Mess

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 11:54:22 AM

PdVSA Faces More Trouble Ahead As Exxon Turns Up The Heat

DJ- A court-ordered freeze on $12 billion in assets of Venezuela's state oil company likely signals larger problems ahead for Petroleos de Venezuela.

Exxon Mobil Corp's (XOM) legal maneuver represents yet another challenge to the 33-year-old company since President Hugo Chavez took power nine years ago.

Under Chavez, PdVSA has lost thousands of qualified personnel, sacrificed investment for social spending, seen its meritocracy replaced by politization of workers to align them with his socialist revolution and suffered a handful of corruption scandals.

Widespread industry estimates put Venezuela's oil production about 25% below the government's figures.

Now, PdVSA's high-profile faceoff with the world's largest private oil company is a signal to investors and potential PdVSA partners that the Andean country's oil firm has yet another nagging problem to deal with.

"For the market this means that the probability of Exxon winning an arbitration against PdVSA is high," said Alberto Ramos, an analyst with Goldman Sachs in New York.

Exxon's move drew an angry response from President Hugo Chavez over the weekend. "Exxon Mobil is an imperialist bandit," Chavez said Sunday during his radio and television show. "If (Exxon) really freezes us...if you hurt us...We won't send any oil to the United States." Few believe the president will cut off the Andean country's main business partner, especially since most of the refineries outside Venezuela capable of processing its extra-heavy crude are located on U.S. soil. The Venezuelan government recognizes that the Exxon problem won't go away soon. Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez told reporters Friday, "I should tell the Venezuelan people that we will probably see more actions like this from Exxon in the future." PdVSA has vowed to appeal the decision. Exxon and U.S. ConocoPhillips (COP) have filed for arbitration against PdVSA, seeking compensation for the assets that Venezuela nationalized last year. Exxon recently secured court orders to freeze more than $12 billion in PdVSA assets as a preventive measure pending settlement of the arbitration. Last summer, PdVSA took majority stakes in four heavy oil ventures in the Orinoco oil region, the crown jewel of Venezuela's oil real estate. The state offered foreign partners the option of remaining as minority partners in the ventures, or walking away. Exxon and Conoco refused the new terms, but France's Total Oil SA (TOT) and Norway's StatoilHydro ASA (STO), opted to stay. PdVSA has already agreed to pay Total and Statoil for their reduced stakes, though the compensation falls far below market value. PdVSA's contingent compensation liabilities of former partners, however, is just one of the company's problems. The leftist president is pushing PdVSA to expand into businesses far from its "core" focus. He has been pushing PdVSA to establish an oil services unit, a household gas supply company and even a food distribution arm responsible for solving Venezuela's chronic food shortages. For those who follow the company closely, this means PdVSA may devote more money to social programs than it will on oil investment. Indeed, the company's latest public figures show PdVSA spent $13.8 billion on social programs in 2006, more than twice the $5.8 billion set aside for capital expenditure. Analysts estimate that PdVSA needed roughly $6 billion to keep production stable, but this may have gone up since oil prices hover close to $100 a barrel. Generous social spending has forced Venezuela to tap the international capital markets for needed investment capital. Last year, the company issued $7.5 billion in bonds and secured other loans, but many believe any future debt sales could become pricier for Venezuela if the spat with Exxon escalates. "The Exxon freeze reminds people there are liabilities that will materialize down the road," said Goldman's Ramos. In his view the market could charge a premium when PdVSA seeks additional funding. But PdVSA's Ramirez brushes off financing concerns. He told reporters Friday that business continues as usual and pointed out that BNP Paribas recently decided to renew a $1 billion credit line even in the face of the freeze order. More expensive financing and costlier oil services could further squeeze PdVSA's ability even to keep output stable. PdVSA claims to produce 3.2 million barrels of crude a day, but the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other industry associations put its production closer to 2.4 million barrels a day. PdVSA officials claim the company is on track to raise production, but its latest moves appear to reflect concern about its production capacity. In recent days PdVSA has struck new agreements with Total, Statoil and Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA) in a bid to expand production in mature fields across the country. Still, PdVSA has problems with aging oil infrastructure, and continues to struggle to secure needed oil rigs. Orinoco river belt production at the four oil ventures nationalized last year is nearing its 600,000 maximum capacity, meaning Venezuela has little room to maneuver if it wants to bring production to its targeted 5.8 million barrels a day by 2013. Under the circumstances "PdVSA's production goals are not realistic," said Mazhar Al-Shereidah, an oil economics professor at the Universidad Central de Venezuela. "Reaching that goal is impossible." Ramirez, though, made clear that despite the litigation cost and potential compensation claims, PdVSA is ready to fight Exxon for as long as necessary. "PdVSA won't be intimidated," he declared.

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 11:49:26 AM

ES gapped down big on Feb 5th and today's rally brought ES right up to the bottom of the gap at 1363.75. The gap wouldn't be closed until it rallies up to 1379.25. Gaps can provide some important clues for what's next.

The 50% retracement level of a gap is typically a key level to watch. For the Feb 5th gap that's at 1371.50. Very often you'll see a move into a gap but an inability to close it and the failure point is usually 50% or less. In this case a move above the 50% retracement of the gap would likely mean full closure is coming. But a failure at or below 1371.50 would be a bearish statement, especially if it's unable to break into the gap at all.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 11:41:35 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1355.41, the OEX's, 625.22. If that support doesn't hold on 15-minute closes, next support is at 1350.87 for the SPX and at 623.06 for the OEX. Bulls would prefer that the higher support hold on 15-minute closes, but this remains a volatile marketplace, doesn't it?

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 11:38:13 AM

CME is getting another leg up in its bounce off the Feb 6th low and potential resistance is near 552 (2nd leg up = 62% of the 1st leg up) and then just under 580 where it would have two equal legs up. A rally above 581 would negate the bearish wave count which is looking for another leg down once the current bounce finishes. 60-min chart update: Link

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 11:32:17 AM

Is now the time for the SPX's 9-ema test that hasn't yet occurred today? The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1354.42. Instead of dipping down to the 9-ema right now, the SPX may consolidate sideways for a while until the 9-ema has risen closer and then punch down to test it, bouncing from it. At least, that's what you hope happens if you're in bullish positions.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 11:27:30 AM

For PTR $146.34 +3.97% ... I'm still using the 12/06/07 relative high of $206.11 for 100% retracement. This would discount the "China Premier" action from $205 up to $266.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 11:23:39 AM

British Petroleum (BP) $66.22 +2.19% ... 38.2% conventional here.

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 11:23:15 AM

GOOG continues to push up from its Feb 5th low but as long as it stays below 540 it should turn back down (dark red price path). Otherwise a continuation higher to the top of its parallel down-channel from November would probably mean a choppy rally over the next couple of weeks to the 575 area before turning back down (pink). Link

Jane Fox : 2/12/2008 11:21:34 AM

Here are the internals. Take a look at the trajectory of the AD volume - this is telling you the bulls are really strong today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 11:20:09 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 11:12:10 AM

The short term pattern of the raly off yesterday's low on this SPX 10-min chart shows how it might play out to a high near 1366 (if it pulls back and finds support around 1354-1355): Link . But the higher Fib projection near 1374 (equality with the 1st wave) would match the top of a parallel down-channel that I've had on the daily chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 11:06:52 AM

It interests me greatly that Keene and I use such different tools for our analysis and yet we're both coming up with potential targets for the SPX in the same zone. Because I'm so busy researching and then writing and editing posts, I often don't have time to go back and read what the other writers have composed until afterwards.

What's significant about that? First, you're getting correlation from two different sources that the 1366-1368 zone could be a potential target (1368-1369 for me, 1366-1368 for Keene), but there's something else to consider. If Keene and I are both looking at this zone, using different methodologies, you can bet that others are, too, and maybe some of those others have been looking for opportunities to close out positions. That's all the more reason for you to have that profit-protecting plan just in case.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 11:04:20 AM

Swing trade long alert! ... for 1/4 position in shares of PetroChina (PTR) at the offer of $146.00. Stop goes $134. Target $178.

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 10:53:53 AM

With the press higher it now looks good for the completion of a 5-wave move up from yesterday afternoon. That should be the completion of the 3rd wave up in the rally from yesterday morning. Ideally we'll now get a little larger pullback/consolidation (perhaps a 38% retracement of the 3rd wave up) that sets up the 5th wave to SPX 1366-1368.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 10:51:54 AM

The SPX's potential upside target has now lowered to 1368.72 according to the Keltner setup. It will get pushed higher again if the SPX starts gaining sharply. First light support is at 1355.15 on 15-minute closes, and 9-ema is at 1351.22. So far, there hasn't been a pullback to that support today, but it will likely happen at some point.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 10:47:11 AM

Germany's DAX ($DAX) Link ... Up 200 points, or +2.97% at 6,943. Today's low/high has been 6,747/6,954. Since no trade at 6,650, can chart 3-box reversal up to 6,850 and add two (2) more X to 6,950.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 10:43:28 AM

FTSE-100 ($FTSE) Link ... Up 157 points, or +2.75% at 5,864.

Low was 5,710. High has been 5,870.10.

Since no trade at 5,650, will chart 3-box reversal higher to 5,850 at this point.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2008 10:41:25 AM

YM retested the daily highs but was not able to make a new daily high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 10:37:34 AM

Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO) $33.00 +3.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 10:36:55 AM

Brazil Titans Index 36,597.54 p 1,319.21, or 3.74%

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 10:33:28 AM

SPX light support on 15-minute closes at 1352.98, but the 9-ema is now at 1349.14.

For the OEX, those figures are as follows: light support at 623.97 and the 9-ema at 622.21.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2008 10:32:55 AM

WE have a little weakness now but I need a confirmation the trend will resume before I take a long.

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 10:28:37 AM

We should see a small consolidation followd by a press higher and then a larger pullback before another high to finish the rally leg from yesterday (hopefully right in the 1366-1368 zone). The techs still have not been able to join the party today. AAPL and RIMM are in the red this morning.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 10:25:26 AM

The SPX is now above its daily 10-sma. So far, so good. Be aware that the SPX has been known to pierce that moving average intraday but then move back above or below it at the close of the day, showing that it's resistance (on declines) or support (on rallies) held. So far, I see no sign of a pullback and gains appear to be accelerating, but keep the possibility in mind.

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema has not risen to about 1347.40 and bulls now want that to hold as support on 15-minute closes if there should be pullbacks. There's lighter support now at 1351.06, and that's been holding on pullbacks so far this morning, but it's kind of extreme to see that particular channel line holding as support. We should expect a pullback to the 9-ema at some point. Not yet, it appears.

The potential upside target is now 1368.89. If you haven't already, start formulating your plans for how you'll deal with a test of that zone if it occurs. If you were just scalping, will you take off most or all of your position and then go about your merry way the rest of the day, trying to avoid the coulda-woulda-shoulda if the markets actually go higher? If you're in a day trade, will you also consider taking off part of the position or just snugging up your stop? If you're intending a long-term trade because you think this is "the" bottom, a view I don't share, although I do believe that we're going to get a monster relief rally at some point or another, will you actually widen your stop so that you don't get taken out on what you would consider just one of the jits and jots of the eventual climb? If you thought the bottom had been reached a while ago, and you bought February calls that are about to expire and then you started losing waaayyy more than you could afford to lose when the markets dropped last week and you're now at breakeven, will you use this opportunity to lower your risk? You can see that a plan isn't a one-size-fits all plan.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 10:22:29 AM

Swing trade put raise target alert! for the one (1) Petroleo Brasileiro PBR Mar $95 Put (PMJ-OS) to $104 (from $95) in the underlying. Link

Bears now need a "Bailey Wave" 4 (d4) and near-term reversal back below trend.

PMJ-OS $1.15 x $1.40

Jane Fox : 2/12/2008 10:21:31 AM

AD line is a very bullish +1571 and AD volume line has one of those tajectories today that you should not ignore. I have missed this move up but plan on buying any weakness.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2008 10:20:18 AM

Economists see small growth effect from stimulus: Philly Fed

Economists surveyed by Philadelphia Fed see no recession

Philly Fed survey says growth outlook much weaker

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 10:15:04 AM

For OEX traders, the 15-minute 9-ema is now just under 620, with slightly higher but possibly firm support at 620.43. Lighter potential support lies at 621.55. The upside target is now 632.22, but the OEX will soon do battle with its daily 10-sma, as the SPX is already doing. That 10-sma is now at about 626.90, and it does have relevance for the OEX on daily closes. The current 624-627 zone could be tough resistance for the OEX, as the 1350-1354 zone could be for the SPX, so you'll want to keep your profit-protecting plans at the ready just in case, if you're in bullish positions. If the OEX has significant difficulties with this zone, chopping around too long, that potential upside target will lower.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 10:10:53 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema has now risen just underneath 1344, with other potential support now at 1344.88. Bulls would prefer that higher level hold on any pullbacks. Lighter potential support now exists at 1347.63. The problem with a first quick rise out of a consolidation zone is that it leaves the likely support far behind, making it difficult to decide where stops should lie.

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 10:08:50 AM

The DOW and SPX continue to push a little higher but NDX is dragging its feet. ER, the small caps (RUT) futures, just made a new high above its pre-market high so NQ is now the only one not to take out its pre-market high.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 9:59:46 AM

The SPX has also pulled way ahead of its 9-ema, and is only now tugging that 9-ema higher. The 15-minute 9-ema is now at about 1341.40, so the SPX may have to consolidate sideways or else pull back to recharge while the 9-ema catches up. If there's a pullback, equity bulls would like to see it find support above about 1344.40 on 15-minute closes. The SPX is now at 1348.94. So far, the SPX is performing well, but as I predicted as the market was opening, the 1350-1354 zone proved problematic. The conditions I'm setting forth here are ones you want to see met for you to remain reassured that things are okay for the moment.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 9:56:15 AM

Keltner outlook on the Advdec line: The advdec line has now set a potential upside target of +2050. However, it zoomed way above its rising 9-ema. When that happens, there's typically either sideways to sideways up consolidation while the 9-ema rises and catches up or else a deeper, immediate pullback to the 9-ema. Equity bulls would prefer the sideways to sideways up version. The 9-ema is now at about +500; the advdec lie is now at +1195. If there's a deeper pullback or a long sideways consolidation, that potential upside target will lower.

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 9:54:24 AM

After leading the northbound parade yesterday, the techs are now lagging and not confirming this morning's new highs in the futures (above the highs just before 8:30 AM).

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 9:52:33 AM

With this morning's rally out of the gate it leaves the short term wave pattern that I was tracking on the 3-min chart unclear. It's just another example of the errors that show up on the short timeframe charts. The 30-min chart has been updated to show what the count could be: Link

The pink depiction shows price reversing at the top of a bull flag pattern where it will have two equal legs up at 1350.21 (hitting it as I type so watch it carefully here if you're long). If it can press higher then we could see a rally up to the Fib resistance zone of 1366-1368 which is also near the downtrend line from Dec 26th.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 9:47:29 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $74.02 -0.71% Link ...

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 9:47:12 AM

It looks as if the SPX is closing this 15-minute period above 1344, so is setting a potential upside target near 1368. If the SPX consolidates sideways a long time near 1350-1354 or even chops back and forth beneath it, it's going to lower that potential upside target. Be wary of trusting any potential target--upside or downside--too much in this market.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2008 9:46:35 AM

The SPX is consolidating sideways and it is not sure where it wants to go. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2008 9:46:08 AM

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) alert! $116.17 +0.92% Link ... today's trade at $116.00 triggers a triple top buy signal. This negates the bearish vertical count to $62.00. Bullish vertical count under construction to $138.

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 9:40:04 AM

With SPX rallying above the high on Thursday it now negates any further possibility for a sideways triangle consolidation pattern. Now I'm watching for potential resistance levels for the current leg up from yesterday morning. First one is at 1350.21 where it would have two equal legs up from Thursday morning.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 9:39:42 AM

Keltner outlook on the advdec line: The advdec line has also broken out above resistance that's analogous to the resistance that the SPX has broken. (Same Keltner channel line, etc.) As I type, it's pulled back some from the day's high, and bulls don't want to see it drop below about +450. It's at +1212 as I type. It's got potential to rise toward +2000 according to the setup, but we have to see how it behaves into the close of the first 15-minute period before we form any opinion at all on how likely that is to occur.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 9:35:37 AM

At 1346.49 as I type, the SPX has cleared the Keltner resistance just below 1344. It has not yet closed a 15-minute period above it, however, and those in bullish positions want that to happen to set that potential upside target mentioned earlier.

Linda Piazza : 2/12/2008 9:31:01 AM

Futures traders and currency traders both liked the developments this morning. If that carries over into the cash markets--doesn't always--the SPX is likely to either gap above or soon run above that 1343-1344 zone that was giving it so much trouble yesterday, further confirming its breakout above the triangle that had been forming. If so, and if that level is maintained on 15-minute pullbacks, the initial potential upside target suggested by that chart is about 1368. However, when looking at the daily chart, we discover that the 10-sma is currently at 1354.33 and there's also significant potential historical S/R in the 1350 zone, so traders should be wary of an early pop up toward 1350 that gets quickly reversed. If you're in bullish trades, stay on your toes this morning.

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 9:28:38 AM

Correction to the pivot tables (I had posted Monday's instead of Tuesday's): Link and Link

Keene Little : 2/12/2008 9:20:33 AM

So much for a quick pullback this morning before we rally again. With equity futures up this morning it looks like we'll start the day with a gap up and then the question is whether or not we'll see gap closure before it continues higher.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2008 9:16:24 AM

All futures markets we watch here in the monitor have broken their previous day highs and all have higher highs and lows so the bulls are in control. Link

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