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Keene Little : 2/14/2008 12:11:37 AM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Depending on the index, the market closed right at or slightly resistance as shown on the 60-min charts. The only one with room to run is the NDX and it has me wondering if it will pull the others higher as well. But take an early failure to rally on Thursday as a shorting opportunity since the potential bearish setup is very bearish. Watch for an attempt to close the Feb 5th gaps.
SPX: Link
DOW: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

The daily SPX chart is a good representative for what I'll be watching: Link

OI Technical Staff : 2/13/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 8:44:17 PM

BIDU traded $239.26 to $293.48 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 8:25:27 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $261.18 +6.41% ... Earnings Press Release Link

$280 was last tick in extended. Call underway.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 8:22:34 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 4:54:57 PM

Someone asked about the NYX stock so a quick look at the daily chart shows a very similar pattern as the other broader market indices (no surprise). But it's been weaker the past few days because it did not get the same bounce off last week's low as the others. In fact it made a lower low this morning, making it more bearish looking.

But the decline over the past few days hints of an ending pattern and it could bounce, especially if the broader market can continue rallying. Best guess on its daily wave count: Link

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 4:18:41 PM

It's important to understand the risk the market faces here, from an EW perspective. The bearish wave count points to some very strong and relentless selling is about to hit the market over the next several weeks. At least that's the setup. All it takes now is for someone to pull the trigger (usually a news event).

The dark red wave count on the SPX daily chart is the very bearish setup but if the rally can continue then the pink wave count shows the potential for a rally up to the downtrend line from October, currently up near 1460: Link

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 4:13:13 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Feb 9 Week. Expected: -3K. Previous: -22K.

8:30a.m. Dec Trade Balance. Expected: -$61.8B. Previous: -$63.1B

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 4:10:50 PM

It's do or die time for the bulls tomorrow. I like, make that really like, the setup for a short play from here, with a tight stop just above. Just be careful about a quick pop higher tomorrow to hit the stops just above the trend lines. If the bulls can charge higher tomorrow then there's a good chance we'll see the markets take out the Feb 1st highs so if resistance is broken then I'll switch to the long side. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 4:05:48 PM

OEX 631.39 +1.36% ... not even close to Qs1.

Strength must be broadening out. Weakness more narrow.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 4:04:18 PM

Correction to my 4:02:45 post: I had only 15 contracts of that bull put spread, not 25. I've been putting on fewer bull put spreads than bear call ones in this market. I've corrected that post already, but I'm used to entering in 25-contract lots on indices in that particular account, and I just typed 25 automatically.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 4:01:50 PM

SPY $136.70 +1.26% ... challenged QS1

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 3:58:41 PM

Remember that markets can change tenor completely overnight. Factor that in as you make end-of-day decisions. I don't like some aspects of this climb.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 4:02:45 PM

I've been able to use today to close out some of my March bull put spreads. I don't know if any of you are interested--perhaps you prefer to let them expire worthless, but I prefer to take some risk off the table if I'm offered that opportunity weeks before expiration. I just closed out 15 contracts of MAR 560/570 for $0.20. I don't remember what the CPTI portfolio has, as I tend to enter my own trades. If the markets drop, I'll be able to reenter a bull put spread.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 3:49:41 PM

QQQQ $44.83 +2.30% ... still alive and nearing $45.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 3:49:25 PM

And there's the SPX hitting that 1368.89 target that was set yesterday, but then erased as the SPX chopped around. If you were in a bullish trade yesterday you were likely stopped yesterday afternoon. If you were in a bearish trade this morning due to all the bearish signs, you were likely stopped. And what happens next? If these were normal times--and I keep repeating that they're not--one possibility would be an early push up to and perhaps through the 30-sma's on these indices, with a possible pullback below them before the close. Will that happen? You tell me, but first you have to tell me if there's going to be any negative or positive news about the bond insurers floated about before tomorrow's opening, as well as any other negative or positive news that might impact markets.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 3:48:00 PM

IWM $71.94 +2.17% ... getting close to the $72 strike.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 3:45:21 PM

No change yet in tenor. The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at about 1365.50; the OEX's, about 631.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 3:34:52 PM

I've warned of things all day that never happened, but do be aware of another approaching potential turning point for the day, the time when market-on-close orders are shown about 20 minutes before the close. These markets are not typical these days, so if you're planning to exit before the close and if you're in bullish positions, be tightening your stops just in case.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 3:27:15 PM

Bears aren't getting what they wanted. Neither the SPX nor OEX has yet been able to break back above those wedges, but neither have they dropped back from their tests of the former supporting trendlines. They're still testing. So far, the balance of the action would have to go to the bulls, of course, as is evidenced by the rising prices, but so be aware of the potential resistance being approached as you make your end-of-day decisions. For the SPX, add in the 30-sma at about 1370.50 and the midline of its big declining price channel (in place since October 2007) just above that. In addition, August's swing low was 1370.60.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 3:24:40 PM

Dendreon (DNDN) $5.60 -5% ... darts lower in "fast market"

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 3:23:32 PM

The RUT has a similar pattern to what I showed for the DOW and SPX on their 60-min charts. Price has been marching up along the bottom of the broken up-channel from the January low and is about 6 points away from the top of its parallel down-channel from October-December (currently near 725): Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 3:18:34 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $19.65 +8.74% ... has retraced just more than 61.8% conventional ($19.61) and correlative 200-day/150-day SMAs.

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 3:17:12 PM

The retest of the high is leaving bearish divergences on the shorter timeframe charts. And even the 30-min chart shows bearish divergence against yesterday's highs (except for the RUT).

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 3:13:50 PM

Dateline WSJ - News Corp. and Yahoo Inc. are in discussions about combining MySpace and other News Corp.-owned online properties with Yahoo, according to people familiar with the matter.

The discussions are aimed at helping Yahoo fend off Microsoft Corp's unsolicited takeover offer, which was initially valued at $44.6 billion. Under the deal being discussed, News Corp. would get a stake in Yahoo which could be more than 20%.

The deal under discussion, which would also include a contribution of cash from News Corp. and a private equity firm, is a variation of one that has been considered by the two companies several times over the past 18 months.

But discussions have previously fallen apart in disagreements over MySpace's valuation, which affects the size of the stake News Corp. would get in Yahoo. News Corp., whose other properties include the Wall Street Journal, is likely to push for MySpace to be valued at between $6 billion and $10 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. Reports of the talks have appeared on Web sites including TechCrunch and Silicon Alley Insider in the past couple of days.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 3:13:44 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 3:08:27 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 3:06:03 PM

Here's that rise to test the underside of the rising trendline off yesterday's low, the bottom trendline of the rising wedges that were broken earlier today. For the SPX, that's at about 1367, and the OEX, at about 631.80. Bulls, you want to see these indices break up through these trendlines and through the Keltner resistance just above them (1368.56 for the SPX). Bears, you want to see prices sharply repelled from either those trendlines or the potential Keltner resistance just above.

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 3:03:04 PM

So much for selling in the final hour, at least not yet.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 2:59:11 PM

Waiting for the 3:00 turn? I don't know if that's what all this sideways movement is about, but do be aware that the nature of trading sometimes changes when the bond market closes at 3:00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 2:59:00 PM

WSJ- News Corp In Talks With Yahoo On Combining Internet Operations

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 2:55:08 PM

Wellpoint (WLP) $74.60 -1.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 2:54:37 PM

Cigna (CI) $46.83 -0.46% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 2:54:07 PM

Aetna (AET) $49.23 -2.66% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 2:53:39 PM

United Health (UNH) $46.47 -3.72% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 2:51:53 PM

HMO Index (HMO.X) 1,866 -1.59% ...

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 2:51:23 PM

SPX is still hugging the underside of its broken uptrend line from this morning's pullback low. It looks like it will let go into the final hour of today's trading.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 2:51:13 PM

NY Attorney General Targets Health Insurers ... The Business Review story Link

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 2:49:48 PM

Bears would rather the SPX have dropped swiftly after breaking below the rising trendline off yesterday's low, rather than this sideways move. Bulls would of course rather that the SPX not broken below that trendline at all, but for the very short-term, I'd have to say that the sideways trading suggests a rise to test the former supporting trendline, something that seems to be happening as I'm typing. That's at about 1365.73 for the SPX and 631.64 for the OEX. Bulls, so be watchful for a possible failure there if that resistance holds on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 2:46:35 PM

As some say ... "If you lost your job and it went overseas, don't expect it barack anytime soon if US corporate taxes get hiked."

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 2:42:35 PM

Some also make the tie that so many US jobs went overseas as US Corporate Tax among the highest. (see 02:12:34)

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 2:41:01 PM

Iran Begins To Add Uranium Gas To Advanced Centrifuges

DJ- Iran's new generation of advanced centrifuges have begun processing small quantities of the gas that can be used to make the fissile core of nuclear warheads, diplomats told The Associated Press on Wednesday.

The existence of the IR-2 centrifuges was revealed last week by diplomats accredited to the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency investigating Iran's nuclear program.

Diplomats said at the time that the machines appeared to be running empty. On Wednesday, they told the AP that 10 machines were operating with minute amounts of uranium gas.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 2:40:02 PM

The top 5% of income earners pay 56% of all taxes and here we have someone saying they want to add more taxes. By the way I really like Obama and all candidates jump on this bandwagon. I just don't fall for it.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 2:38:21 PM

I just read Jeff's post about the comment Obama made concerning taxing high income earners. Now this is not a political comment about any party but here a few facts about taxing the "rich."

Top 1% of income earners pay 37% of the taxes
Top 5% pay 56.47%
Top 10% pay 67.33
Top 25% pay 84%
Top 50% pay 96%


Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 2:36:31 PM

Both the SPX and OEX closed at their 15-minute 9-ema's rather than below them. The support of their 15-minute 9-ema's held, but only tentatively. Given that both have traded below rising wedge formations, formations that are considered bearish, be watchful for further declines if in bullish positions. Just be prepared. It wouldn't be unusual for these indices to drop through their smallest channels to recharge by this point in the day, with those lower channel lines now at 1356.69 for the SPX and 627.21 for the OEX, but you then want to see bounces from those channel lines and prompt ones, if in bullish positions. We've had some similar natural, expected rechargings result in steeper declines lately, so just know where your stops should be if there should be drops through those channels and if the support then didn't hold.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 2:30:44 PM

The SPX and OEX are dropping below their 15-minute 9-ema's, although not far below them yet. They're at about 1360.80 for the SPX and 628.70 for the OEX.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 2:26:39 PM

Neither the VIX nor the TRIN has yet broken back above their respective 15-minute 9-ema's, but both are testing.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 2:26:25 PM

President Bush Signs $168 Billion Stimulus Package Into Law (02:05 PM EST)

Tab Gilles : 2/13/2008 2:26:16 PM

In reference to Jeff's post on "Green Collar" jobs....

Monday; Abu Dhabi's Masdar initiative broke ground on carbon-neutral city of the future. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 2:19:34 PM

The SPX traded sideways out of (and below) that rising wedge. Mildly bearish. However, it did sort of (closed a few cents below it) hold onto the support of the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1361.10. That's more bullish than bearish, but now we see what happens when or if the SPX rises to retest that trendline from the bottom. The trendline is now at about 1364.75, with the SPX at 1362.14 as I type.

Tab Gilles : 2/13/2008 2:24:26 PM

Weekly EIA Report Link

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 2:15:22 PM

After over-throwing the resistance area near 1364, SPX has pulled back and is now breaking its uptrend line from this morning's pullback low. We might have seen the high for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 2:12:34 PM

KPMG's Corporate and Indirect Tax Rate Survey 2007 Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 2:08:41 PM

Obama Offers $210 Billion Plan Involving "Green Collar" Jobs

DJ (partial) - Democrat Barack Obama said Wednesday that as president he would spend $210 billion to create jobs in construction and environmental industries, as he tried to win over economically struggling voters.

Obama's investment would be over 10 years as part of two programs. The larger is $150 billion to create five million so-called "green collar" jobs to develop more environmentally friendly energy sources.

Sixty billion would go to a National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank to rebuild highways, bridges, airports and other public projects. Obama estimated that could generate nearly 2 million jobs, many of them in the construction industry that's been hit by the housing crisis.

"This agenda is paid for," Obama said as the Republican National Committee promoted an "Obama Spend-O-Meter" online to track his proposals and portray him as a tax-and-spend liberal. Obama explained that the money for his spending proposals will come from ending the Iraq war, cutting tax breaks for corporations, taxing carbon pollution and raising taxes on high income earners.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 2:08:04 PM

VIX at 24.96. The 15-minute 9-ema is at 24.06.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 2:03:53 PM

Rising wedge support for the SPX converges with the potential support of the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1361.33. Equity bulls want to see both maintained on 15-minute closes. The SPX is at 1363.12 as I type. A similar situation exists on the OEX, with the OEX currently testing the rising wedge support and with the 9-ema's possible support at 628.88 on 15-minute closes. The OEX is at 629.60.

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 2:03:36 PM

Correction to the DOW 60-min chart I just posted--the key level to the downside should read 12070 (Monday's low) instead of 12122. As a heads up before that, a break below yesterday afternoon's low (12307, SPX 1339) would be a strong indication that we've seen the high for the bounce off last week's low.

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 1:55:58 PM

The DOW looks similar to SPX in that it's facing potential resistance at the bottom of its broken parallel up-channel from the January low, and forming what looks like a rising wedge, shown on this 60-min chart: Link

Oscillators are back into overbought on this time frame at potential resistance. But if it can keep rallying then it should be clear sailing for another 100 points higher to close its gap from Feb 5th at 12631.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 1:54:06 PM

The SPX's rising trendline off yesterday's late-day low is now at about 1361.30, so bulls want to see that maintained on pullbacks. Be aware that the price action is narrowing into a rising wedge shape. I've seen price break to the upside many a time out of these supposedly bearish formations, but just be aware that it's there and use it to help you guide your decisions if in bullish positions.

If you feel that I'm warning of everything today and not certain of anything, you're entirely right. Decidedly bearish conditions are followed by decidedly bullish ones, and often there's no transition. Upside targets are set, as they were yesterday, but then there's a steep decline. Bearish targets are set, as they were this morning, but they're not met before markets climb higher again. I don't know what's going to happen, and I am warning of various things I see setting up to remind you to keep your account or trade management skills honed in this market.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 1:48:55 PM

VIX is rising a little. Not a lot yet. It's not above that 15-minute 9-ema, now at about 25.10, much less sustaining values above it, which would be needed to constitute a change in tenor, but it's now at 24.86.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 1:46:42 PM

VIX is bullish and you do not want to trade against the VIX so today is a buy the pullbacks. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 1:45:32 PM

The TRAN also has not yet reached a new high of the day. It is, however, still headed higher, but that TRAN divergence should just be kept on the radar screen if you're long the OEX or SPX.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 1:44:24 PM

Consolidated-Tomoka Land (AMEX:CTO) $53.74 +2.79% ... some volume on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 1:39:51 PM

Looks a bit like the QQQQ $0.40 box Link

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 1:38:44 PM

The TRIN has also been following its 15-minute 9-ema, but following it down, closing 15-minute periods below it. That average is now at about 0.77 for the TRIN, so sustained 15-minute closes above that would indicate a short-term change in the tenor for the TRIN, even though that value is still below the benchmark 1.00 that people use. So far, the TRIN isn't even rising back to test it, at 0.61 as I type. Just keep your eye on some of these indicators as early shifts in tenor might give you some insight into this ever-shifting market.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 1:38:34 PM

France's CAC-40 ($CAC) Link ... finished up 14 points, or +0.30% at 4,855. High/Low was 4,887/4,781.

X gets the square to 4,850.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 1:35:43 PM

German's DAX ($DAX) Link ... finished up 5 points, or +0.08% at 6,973. High/Low was 7,007/6,869.

X gets the square to 7,000.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 1:34:07 PM

The OEX hit the potential Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes that's now at 630.98 but was then just a little below that level. The resistance held on first test, anyway. However, the OEX currently remains above the 15-minute 9-ema on 15-minute closes, as it has since about 10:45 this morning, about the time when I was posting that the markets were chopping back and forth across it, and it had lost its value as a barometer! There's nothing like making a bald statement so that the markets can prove you wrong.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 1:32:17 PM

FTSE-100 ($FTSE) Link ... finished off 29 points, or -0.51% at 5,880. High/Low was 5,915/5,814. So no action.

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 1:31:16 PM

NDX had two equal legs up, from this morning's pullback, at 1815.88 (NQ 1820) which was missed by a couple of ticks. We could get one more minor new high to finish the 2nd leg up but it's risky to hang on long here. If we're going to get another pullback (probably back down to this morning's low near 10:45) then this is the place for the bounce to fail.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 1:29:58 PM

Remember this morning when all the "under the market" indicators were soundly on the side of the bears before they switched tenor. They can switch as quickly again in these market conditions. There was nothing in the setup of the markets earlier this morning (other than the suggested warning to heed the potential support of the daily 10-sma) to suggest that markets might turn around, and the climb didn't look particularly bullish as it was first occurring. It doesn't really look that way now, with the choppy back-and-forth action, but the SPX still climbed to a new high.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 1:27:21 PM

The VIX not only slides down descending Keltner support--it's in breakdown mode on the 15-minute chart. RSI is 21.81 with the VIX now at 24.71. Equity bulls don't want to see a strong VIX rebound from this level. You would have to see the VIX sustaining values above the 15-minute 9-ema, now at about 25.15, to see any change in tenor in the VIX, but do watch out if that should happen as the SPX approaches that potential resistance zone that Keene and I have been mentioning the last couple of days.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 1:23:31 PM

Neither the advdec line nor the USDJPY is anywhere near its high of the day: potential divergence. Keep a watch on them.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 1:21:40 PM

SPX previous high of the day: 1363.15, with the SPX just now punching above that, having been led higher by the OEX. The SPX is confronting potential Keltner resistance at 1363.50 on 15-minute closes with next resistance above that at 1366.95. I would have profit-protecting plans in place if in bullish positions in case this punch higher--coming during the lunchtime lull--is reversed either here or at that 1366-1368 range.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 1:20:17 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 1:19:21 PM

The OEX has been leading the SPX a bit today. The OEX is at a new high of the day, while the SPX isn't yet.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 1:19:14 PM

Here are the SPX jtHMA charts. I moced to cash in my intermediate term accounts based on the monthly jtHMA chart turning red, the first time since April 2003. I will not put that money back to work on the long side until I see the monthly and the weekly turn back green.

My longer term accounts 401(k)s are still invested and those are based on Bob Brinker, who is still bullish. Link

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 1:16:34 PM

The top of a little parallel up-channel for price action since the low near 10:30 is currently near SPX 1364 which matches the downtrend line from Dec 26th so watch for a potential top to form there (for another pullback before rallying again).

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 1:13:57 PM

Ok you have to endure through another Gold chart but I am a Goldbug remember and I am getting pretty excited that Gold is probably building another higher high. I am long Gold now and used the jtHMA charts to time that long. Link

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 1:11:41 PM

There is no doubt as to who has the ball now. The internals are very bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 1:06:24 PM

PHF $8.50 +1.19% .... trying to steady.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 1:05:49 PM

RUT.X 715.81 +1.46% ... spent a little more time above QS1 than it did on 02/05/08. Bulls looking for a pullback. Maybe next Wednesday.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 12:46:31 PM

Denver, Boston, Chicago are "bright spots"

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 12:45:42 PM

Miami has been pounded into the proverbial "swamp" the several weeks. Las Vegas into the desert.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 12:43:41 PM

CME's Feb'08 regional housing futures will expire later this month. On 1/25/08, San Diego was 206.80 and 2/08/08 fell to a benchmark low of 205.20. On 06/01/07 San Diego was 225.60.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 12:43:03 PM

Fifteen-minute 9-ema Keltner support maintained again on that last 15-minute close. Just about the time I concluded earlier that the 15-minute 9-ema had lost its relevance as any predictor of price action, those small-bodied candles started stair-stepping higher with that average as the staircase. Those candles are small-bodied, though, and resistance approaches, so you want to see that 15-minute 9-ema support maintained if there are pullbacks from resistance. Those averages are now at about 1357.30 for the SPX and about 626.90 for the OEX. Now that the SPX and OEX have been climbing these averages for a couple of hours, a close beneath them would signal a change in tenor . . . . for whatever that means in this market.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 12:41:13 PM

S. California Regional Home Sales Plunge In January

DJ- New housing data show home sales in a six-county region of Southern California plunged in January to the slowest pace for any month in more than 20 years.

DataQuick Information Systems said Wednesday a total of 9,983 homes were sold in Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties last month, a drop of nearly 50% from January last year.

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 12:37:46 PM

The possibility for a choppy climb up to near SPX 1380 over the next 2 days remains a possibility, as shown on last night's 30-min chart and updated here: Link

I removed the pink wave count calling for an immediate decline because today's wave pattern does not support that. This morning's initial decline was only a 3-wave move and therefore points to more highs. But we could first see just a choppy sideways consolidation, a brief pop higher followed by a pullback before rallying again, a deeper pullback from here before climbing again, or... You get my drift.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 12:33:12 PM

Argentina January Power Demand +4.9% On Year Despite Energy Plan

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 12:32:20 PM

The advdec line is turning down a little again. It's at 732 as I type. If bullish, you don't want it drop below about 400 and you certainly don't want to see it sustain values below about 250. So far, the drop is within a building consolidation zone, but let the advdec line give you a heads up on market demeanor.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 12:31:57 PM

Morgan Stanley To Cut US Mortgage Ops, Get Out Of UK (updated)

DJ- Morgan Stanley (MS) will cut its U.S. residential mortgage operations and close its U.K.-based residential mortgage lending business, Advantage Home Loans, in response to continued deterioration of the mortgage markets.

About 1,000 employees in the U.S. and U.K. will be affected by the changes.

The cuts are on top of the 1,000 layoffs set in motion several weeks ago. People familiar with the plans told The Wall Street Journal at the time that the cuts, which consisted of 2% of Morgan Stanley's work force, would take place in the brokerage firm's wealth-management unit and primarily affect U.S.-based back-office employees.

The New York investment bank will continue to service U.S. mortgage loans through its Saxon Mortgage Services business and still offer residential mortgages to its retail brokerage clients.

"Given the continued dislocation in the mortgage markets, we have restructured our residential mortgage business to ensure we are appropriately positioned for the environment going forward," said Anthony Meola, chief operating officer of Morgan Stanley's U.S. residential business.

The cuts are the latest mortgage-related layoffs some of the big Wall Street firms have undertaken the past year as the credit crunch has worsened. For example, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH) recently announced it would "substantially" reduce its U.S. residential-mortgage lending. To date, some 3,800 mortgage jobs have been lost at the firm.

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 12:23:10 PM

The bounce off the low near 10:30 is just another corrective bounce (one of many lately). It could certainly chop its way higher still but I do not like the upside for a trade. These kinds of choppy bounces tend to let go in a hurry and figuring out where the top of them will be can be an exercise in frustration. Trade very lightly or not at all. Some days are not good trading days and so far this is another one.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 12:22:55 PM

The TRIN is at 0.82. Equity bulls want to see it stay there or head lower. Equity bears want it back above 1.00, but specifically, according to Keltner charts, they want it to close 15-minute periods above 0.94.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 12:21:08 PM

The VIX is sliding down along descending Keltner support. I warned of this possibility in my 10:12:40 post, saying this is what equity bulls wanted to see. Bulls want this to continue, while equity bears want the VIX to bounce above 25.50 and sustain values above it. The VIX is at 25.18 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 12:19:13 PM

SPY $136.00

DIA $125.00

IWM $71.50

QQQQ $44.41

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 12:16:43 PM

SPX high of the day at 1363.15. Potential resistance on 15-minute closes is now at 1362.12 and then at 1364.71. The SPX is at 1359.75 as I type. Bulls are certainly trying to confirm that inverse H&S. Will they do it? Currently, the Keltner setup suggests that there might be a confirmation but that the SPX will face resistance immediately afterward, resistance that held this morning. Keltner channels have suggested a whole lot of things, as have a whole lot of other forms of technical analysis, lately, without those things necessarily happening. Be aware of the possibility of a confirmation that is quickly reversed, though, and if in bullish trades, keep on your toes.

As a reminder, almost every "beneath the market" look we took this morning, with the exception of the USDJPY action, soundly supported the bearish side, but that hasn't made much difference so far, and those indicators changed directions in many cases. If you're finding that your usual trading tools aren't working and you're being stopped out of trades, you haven't suddenly lost all trading skills: market conditions have changed.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 12:16:08 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $29.36 +2.29% ... "ditto" 12:14:41.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 12:14:41 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 716.90 +1.61% ... takes a look at QS1.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 12:11:22 PM

Morgan Stanley To Continue To Service Mortgage Loans In US
To Lay Off 1,000 Mortgage Employees

MS $42.21 -1.7% ... notable new 52-weeker.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 12:09:15 PM

For the OEX, next potential resistance on a 15-minute close is near 629.20-629.60. For the last hour or so, the 15-minute 9-ema has held as support on 15-minute closes, with that average now at 626.54. The climb has been choppy, with red and green small-bodied 15-minute candles lining up along that 15-minute 9-ema, so the climb is not completely trustworthy. While a drop toward 624 is not predicted, it certainly wouldn't be surprising.

Remember, that we've been seeing a period when neither upside nor downside targets are being met. It's just chop so far.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 12:04:00 PM

You have to be VERY aware of economic reports because the moves you see in reaction to them in the indexes is amplified in the forex.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 12:03:04 PM

Forex trading is not for the faint of heart but they do have minis that trade for like $1.00/pip so you can reduce your risk somewhat. I just find Forex a very fast moving market and too fickle for me.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 11:59:01 AM

Good day Jane

I wonder about getting some more charting help and info about the forex trading. I would like to learn more more more. If possible.

I could certainly give you assistance with charting and I could help with the symbols on the Forex markets but that is as far as I could go because I am futures trader and have never traded Forex.

If you want to trade Forex I think you need a really good charting platform, like Tradestation, that will give you tick charts. I trade with many who do trade currencies pairs and they have all gravitated to tick charts, as I have as well to trade futures.

Forex trades 24/7 whereas Futures close for a brief period each day and do not trade over the weekend. There is three timeframes that most trade, the Asian session, the European session and the American session and each currency pair trades differently in each session.

I think the biggest challenge is trading Forex is finding the currency pair that trades in the timezone you can trade. Then once you find that you need to find the tick charts that fit your trading style. I use the 377tick for trading YM because it is slower and gives me time to breath throughout the day. By the way most traders are now using tick charts in multiples according to FIB numbers - and 377 is a fib number. The next lower down is 233, etc.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 11:58:20 AM

It's easy now to point out a potential continuation-form inverse (or reverse) head-and-shoulders formation on the SPX's chart. The SPX would need a sustained punch to a new days high to confirm it, I would think, while a sustained drop below the day's low would invalidate it. I don't trust H&S formations (either regular or inverse) these days, and continuation-form ones can be even less trustworthy. However, watching this play out or not gives us some insight into whether bulls or bears have the most strength. Right now, the Keltner channels would suggest they're about equal in strength, with the possibility of a drop toward 1350 looking about as likely as a climb toward 1361. RSI is right back near 50.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 11:57:52 AM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 119.00 +2.02% ... having spent the last 5 days closing below its conventional 19.1% (117.73), DDX moves above today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 11:51:46 AM

Spot Platinum At Record $1,970/Oz On S African Power Shortage

DJ- Spot platinum has spiraled to a fresh record high after news that South African power shortages are set to continue until 2012. Spot platinum jumped to a record $1,971 a troy ounce as news broke, up 4.5% from the session low.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 11:51:27 AM

Internals have become a lot more bullish now with the AD line and VIX in sync and both bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 11:48:10 AM

Global Gold Demand Hits Record $79.2 Bln In 2007

DJ- Global gold demand hit an annual record in dollar terms for the fourth straight year during 2007, when it reached $79.2 billion, according to the "Gold Demand Trends" report released by the World Gold Council Wednesday morning.

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 11:31:52 AM

Looking at SPX, after the January low I drew a trend line along the highs and then a parallel line attached to the January low. This identified where support should be found in a pullback if the rally was to progress higher. But SPX instead broke below the bottom of its channel and has found it to be resistance on the bounces, including yesterday's. 60-min chart update: Link

Another push up could find resistance at the bottom of that up-channel again and at the top of its parallel down-channel that it's been in since the October high. Those trend lines cross just under 1370 at the end of the day tomorrow.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 11:30:22 AM

VIX is headed down again, toward 25.25 potential support.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 11:27:53 AM

Excruciating, isn't it? I can point to some concern for the bears among our subscribers, in that the SPX is in fact clinging to the potential support of the daily 10-sma, as I mentioned that it might do. Bears weren't able to produce follow through. However, we expected some stalling, so it's difficult to assign how much we should trust this bounce attempt, either.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 11:26:48 AM

Swing trade put raise bearish target alert! ... Raising bearish target on the one (1) Dynamic Materials BOOM March $50 Put (QCB-OJ) to $51.10 (from $42.00).

BOOM $59.06 +0.99% ...

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 11:21:53 AM

The VIX has dropped toward a 25.30-25.50 potential support zone. It's attempting a bounce as I type, but it would have to get to a new high of the day, with that previously at 26.06, for this bounce to be conclusive. The VIX is at 25.82 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 11:20:45 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 11:19:45 AM

So, okay, here's another instance of a potential Keltner target set and then not met, and then a new target set, this one the opposite direction. We're going to have to decide that the 15-minute 9-ema's on the SPX and OEX are not predictive right now. As I type, the SPX has resistance from 1361.62-1363 on 15-minute closes and support at 1348-1350, and it looks about equally likely to touch either. RSI is near 50, so it's not giving any clues.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 11:10:03 AM

The SPX closed that last 15-minute period at the 15-minute 9-ema or just a few cents above it. Normally, I would not consider that a sign that it had broken that resistance but rather a sign that the resistance had held, but we're obviously in a period of choppy price movement. In those periods, prices tend to chop across this key moving average without us being able to tell much about the significance of those movements. RSI has flattened near 50. There's a reason I warned to remember that anything can happen. The action is confusing. And, as is always true in periods of choppy price action, the normal indicators we use tend to get chopped up, too, so don't provide reliable information.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 10:59:51 AM

And we are stopped at 12446.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 10:57:18 AM

The SPX rose immediately to retest its 15-minute 9-ema from the bottom, with that average now at about 1353.90 and with the SPX at 1354.20 as I type. Bears want this resistance to hold on this 15-minute period, into the close, and bulls want the SPX to scramble back above it by the close, erasing that next downside target, now at about 1349.44.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 10:51:35 AM

Consolidating at daily lows so I think we have a good chance of hitting target.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 10:50:51 AM

Next potential target for the SPX is 1349.33; for the OEX, 622.86.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 10:49:44 AM

YM is right smack dab in the middle of this trade and it is playing with us. Or should I say dancing with us.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 10:48:32 AM

Got to a low of 12416 and we have our target at 12401.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 10:47:46 AM

Lower your stop to 12446 alert

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:47:11 AM

# Days Crude Oil Supply as I have tabulated looks to have risen to 20.6 from last week's 20.3.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:46:33 AM

EIA: Weekly Pct. Utilization of Op Capacity rose to 85.08% from prior week's 84.34%.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 10:46:21 AM

It looks as if the SPX might close this 15-minute period below its 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1354, and the OEX might do so, too, with its 15-minute 9-ema now at 625.35. The SPX will be closing a 15-minute period near its daily 10-sma, though, so still within bounce territory. Be careful if in bearish positions. The advdec line is still dropping, so that's still in the favor of bears, but these markets are crazy.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:45:55 AM

EIA: Refinery Operable Capacity unchanged at 17.43M b/d.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:44:44 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Inputs Into Refineries rose by 69,000 barrels/day to 14.561M b/d

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 10:44:08 AM

So far we have only a 3-wave corrective pullback from this morning's opening high. This is opex week and we're in a very choppy environment so don't underestimated the possibility for another rally out of this pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:43:48 AM

EIA: Weekly Gross Inputs Into Refineries rose by 129,000 barrels/day to 14.834M b/d

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:41:58 AM

EIA: SPR Stockpile added 95,000 barrels to 698.3M

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:41:00 AM

EIA: Weekly Heating Oil Stockpiles up 583,000 barrels to 36.72M

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 10:40:01 AM

The advdec line is still headed lower. It's at +693 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:39:56 AM

EIA: Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Stockpiles ... down 73,000 barrels to 41.09M

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:38:39 AM

EIA: Weekly ULS Diesel Stockpiles up 70,000 barrles to 69.6M

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:37:43 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Distillate Stockpiles down 166,000 barrels to 126.97M

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 10:37:12 AM

The TRAN rolled over hard, too. It just hit a new low of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:35:56 AM

USO $73.33 -0.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:35:43 AM

PTR $145.03 +0.67% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:35:27 AM

PBR $115.09 +1.17% ...

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 10:35:17 AM

The SPX is now back at the daily 10-sma, testing it. Bears, be aware of the potential support here: bulls, you don't want a second day when the SPX punches above it and then rolls back down into the close. Both need to be watchful here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:35:13 AM

TSO $36.68 +0.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:35:01 AM

VLO $57.96 +0.46% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:34:20 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Gasoline Stockpiles up 1.75M barrels to 229.23M

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:33:38 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles up 1.066M barrels to 301.07M.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 10:33:11 AM

Short from 12439 with a stop at 12481 so target is 12397 which I will put at 12401. alert

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 10:32:43 AM

TRIN and VIX headed higher, the advdec line testing the day's low: these are definitely so far corroborating the weakness. However, there's a wildcard: the USDJPY is zooming!

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:31:52 AM

US Steel (X) $101.15 +1.67% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:31:20 AM

Arcelor Mittal (MT) $68.64 -1.78% ... The world's No. 1 steelmaker, reported on Tuesday that fourth-quarter net income rose 2.7% on 21% higher sales. In 2008, the Luxembourg company plans dividends totaling $2.1 billion and stock buybacks totaling $1 billion. And for the first quarter, the company expects overall performance in line with that of the fourth quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:30:01 AM

Coca-Cola Co. (KO) $59.50 -0.70% ... Beverage giant reports fourth-quarter earnings of 52 cents a share, up from 29 cents a share in the year-earlier period. The adjusted latest profit was 58 cents a share. On average, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had been looking for 55 cents a share. Revenue reached $7.33 billion from $5.93 billion. The company sold 5% more cases of drinks in the latest quarter than it sold in the year-earlier period.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 10:29:42 AM

The day is far from over and days produce all kinds of quirky action these days, but this early action is so far exactly what short-term bears want to see and exactly not what bulls want to see. Remember that we've seen lots of action set up with lots of ducks-in-a-row corroboration these last few days, followed by reversals from nowhere. Don't count on anything. Absolutely protect your profits, if you have them, with everything in your skill set, and keep losses as small as possible.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 10:29:38 AM

Stop will be different though. Put the stop at 12481. alert

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 10:29:08 AM

Actually that short at 12439 looks good. Alert

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:28:27 AM

Deere & Co. (DE) $85.20 -1.48% ... Farm equipment and heavy machinery maker said fiscal first-quarter net income rose 54% on 18% higher sales. Earnings were 83 cents a share, up from 52 cents a year earlier. On average, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial were projecting 78 cents a share. Revenue came in at $5.2 billion, against the estimate of $5.07 billion.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 10:28:22 AM

I will setup another one.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 10:28:03 AM

The short at 12439 is off the table at this point alert

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:26:55 AM

Jones Apparel Group Inc.'s (JNY) $16.28 +5.30% ... retailer's fourth-quarter loss narrowed to $89.8 million, or $1.06 a share, from $269.5 million, or $2.51 a share, a year earlier. Excluding the results of the sale of Barney's New York, the impact of activities related to restructuring and other items, the latest earnings were 9 cents a share. The Bristol, Pa., apparel and footwear company's revenue fell to $839 million from $1.01 billion. On average, analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected earnings of 7 cents a share on revenue of $875 million. Jones Apparel also said Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) will begin carrying the l.e.i. brand for juniors, junior plus and girls in Wal-Mart stores nationwide this summer.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 10:26:04 AM

You know, I have to warn bulls that the advdec line is just not looking good. It's retraced more than 50% of the day's range, and it's now below the 15-minute 9-ema, although that could of course be rectified by the close of this 15-minute period. Bulls shouldn't feel entirely comfortable with the advdec line acting like this. Next potential Keltner support, if the advdec line should not bounce back above about 1140 by the close of this 15-minute period, is at about 880, and as I type, the advdec line is fast approaching that. Bulls most certainly don't want that support lost.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:24:48 AM

Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM) $93.93 +2.60% ... said early investigation of Monday's Blackberry service disruption indicated a problem with an internal data routing system within the a recently upgraded service infrastructure. The upgrade was part of RIM's efforts to increase capacity, the Toronto company said.

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 10:24:25 AM

The DOW pushed to another marginal new high but it's not being joined by anyone else, including the banks which are in the red today. We've seen time and again how the market can keep chopping higher but the price pattern is clear--the bounce off last week's low is a correction of the decline and when it tips back over it could be swift.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:23:22 AM

MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG) $12.06 -14.95% ... Company set aside funds to cover a reserve deficiency as home values fall and clients default on their home loans. The move resulted in a net loss of $1.47 billion, or $18.17 a share, compared with profit of $121.5 million, or $1.47 a share, a year earlier. Revenue rose to $399.1 million from $367.2 million. The company booked a $1.2 billion reserve for likely losses ahead and a $33 million charge related to losses at its C-Bass joint venture. The Milwaukee mortgage insurer said it is hiring an advisor to help it evaluate it capital-raising options and added it does not expect to earn a profit in 2008.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:22:10 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $73.42 -0.23% ...

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 10:22:05 AM

The advdec line is already testing its 15-minute 9-ema, with that average at about 1175 and the advdec line now at 1183.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:21:46 AM

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) $85.20 +0.97% ... Venezuela halted oil supplies to the company, the latest move by President Hugo Chavez in an increasingly bitter dispute over the country's seizure of the company's stake in two oil ventures.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 10:20:51 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1354.97. Bulls want that to hold on 15-minute closes. Bears want it to fail to hold on 15-minute closes. For the OEX, the 15-minute 9-ema is at 625.83.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:20:42 AM

Blue Nile Inc.'s (NILE) $45.10 -16% ... Fourth-quarter net income increased to $7.5 million, or 45 cents a share, from $5.8 million, or 35 cents a share, a year earlier. Analysts had expected, on average, earnings of 44 cents a share. The online jewelry retailer said net sales increased to $111.9 million from $90.7 million. For the first quarter of 2008, Blue Nile expects net income of 11 cents to 14 cents a share on flat sales. Separately, Blue Nile named President Diane Irvine to the additional role of chief executive. She succeeds Mark Vadon, who was named executive chairman.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:18:17 AM

Petrobras Argentina Unit 2007 Net ARS573M Vs. ARS1.06B In '06

DJ- Argentina-based Petrobras Energia Participaciones SA (PZE) reported Wednesday that its net profit dropped to 573 million pesos ($180 million) in 2007, down from ARS1.06 billion in 2006.

Net profit during the fourth quarter also slid on the year to ARS206 million from ARS214 million in 2006, the company reported in a filing with the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange.

The company is a unit of Brazil's state-run Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), or Petrobras.

PBR $115.69 +1.70% ...

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 10:17:44 AM

For reference, the SPX's high of the day has been 1363.15. The SPX is at 1360.26 as I type, challenging that overhead resistance but not yet through it, much less on a 15-minute close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:15:24 AM

MBIA Inc. (MBI) $11.47 -0.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 10:15:01 AM

MGIC Invt. Corp. (MTG) $12.10 -14.66% ... sellers seem to be taking turns any given day.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 10:14:59 AM

Resistance being tested again on the SPX and OEX, with that resistance at about 1361.30-1362 for the SPX, at about 627.70 and then 628.45 for the OEX.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 10:12:40 AM

I was just about to comment on the VIX climbing but I see that Jane has already done that. From a Keltner standpoint, the VIX pierced Keltner support at 25.39 this morning but then closed that first 15-minute period above it and has been climbing since then, breaking through resistance. It's got potential resistance at the 15-minute 9-ema at 26.12, and it may then need to drop back and retest support to see if it's still holding. Those who want equities to go down will want to see the VIX maintain 15-minute closes above about 25.70. Those who want the equities to continue gaining will want to see the VIX roll down toward 25.40 again and then just slide lower along the lower Keltner channel line.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 10:12:05 AM

AD volume and VIX are moving in the same direction and that is not the way they should be moving, to be in sync they need to move in opposite directions. Now look at the AD ratio and it seems to moving in sync with the VIX. Link

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 10:05:02 AM

Let's try a YM short at 12439 with a stop at 12485. alert

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 10:04:26 AM

VIX making new daily highs so these two are not in sync and that makes for choppy markets.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 10:03:51 AM

AD line is a bullish +1099 but did start the day at +1406 so it is moving down.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 10:03:45 AM

The advdec line dropped fairly significantly ahead of the 10:00 releases, retracing about 50% of the day's range. It's rising again now, but keep an eye on it. Bulls don't want it to drop below about +1150 and bears don't want 15-minute closes above about +1650.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 10:02:37 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales were better-than-expected in January, pushed higher by a surprise gain in auto sales and the rising cost of gasoline, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

Retail sales rose 0.3 % in January after sinking 0.4% in December.

Excluding autos and gas, sales were flat in the month.

Economists expected a 0.3% decline in January sales.

Retail sales are up 3.9% in the past 12 months.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 9:58:43 AM

Here is a daily chart of the SPX. If seems to be running out of steam and certainly does not look like it will break the 1400 resistance from this rally. It may need to retrace and take another run at it. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 9:55:09 AM

Choppy markets make fools of us all, and it would just be typical if the SPX headed straight down after my 9:51:27 post, but let's look at some other things. The SPX's rising 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1352.92. Those of you who want the SPX to continue rising want that support to be maintained on 15-minute closes. Those who want a rollover want to see the resistance now from about 1360.20-1362 to hold on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 9:51:27 AM

RSI on the SPX's 15-minute chart is only 60, so it's not yet at an extreme. While RSI isn't always reliable--gives early signals that are sometimes false ones, and isn't a particularly good tool in a trending market--it can be a good indicator to study in a range-bound one. I don't use it to set up trades, but I do use it to warn me. What it's telling me now is that the SPX may not be through challenging resistance. We of course have some reversals lower from this range, as we did yesterday afternoon, but if I were setting up a sterling trade and looking for rollover potential, I'd want all the ducks in a row, and this one hasn't quite lined up yet.

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 9:49:00 AM

So far the DOW did a little better by jumping slightly above yesterday's high, and SPX marginally so, but the techs still lag. NDX failed to test the high. Even the RUT has managed to break yesterday's high and so far is the only one to hold onto it.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2008 9:46:08 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 9:44:42 AM

The SPX is doing what bulls didn't want it to do: it's pulling back to and slightly below the Keltner resistance now at about 1359.50 on the 15-minute chart. It looks as if it might close this first 15-minute period beneath that. That means that this resistance held, and that prevents a new resetting of an upside target on that chart--a target that was never met yesterday anyway. If the SPX ends this first 15-minute period beneath 1356, it has also closed beneath that rising trendline off Monday's low, a trendline that it was rising up to test this morning.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 9:39:57 AM

With both the SPX and advdec line testing Keltner resistance and yesterday's highs, all I can say is that we don't know the outcome of that test yet, only that it's going on. Please attempt to keep an anything-is-possible outlook, whatever side you're taking this morning.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 9:38:14 AM

Keltner outlook on the advdec line: the advdec line tests analogous Keltner resistance to that being tested on the SPX's 15-minute chart. That's at about 1500 for the advdec line with the advdec line now at 1629. The advdec line has not yet matched yesterday's high, however, although it's still climbing toward it. Again, bull don't want to see a sharp pullback during this 15-minute period, below that Keltner resistance. That will mean that it's held.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 9:36:09 AM

SPX potential resistance at about 1359.50 and then again at just over 1361 matches fairly closely historical resistance from yesterday's high at 1362.10. The SPX, at 1362.01 as I type, is testing that historical resistance and is above that Keltner resistance, but the first 15-minute period hasn't ended yet. Bulls don't want a sharp pullback.

Linda Piazza : 2/13/2008 9:27:14 AM

Here we go again on the zigzagging ride these markets have been on for a while. Futures are higher as I type. If the cash market action trades in accordance with the futures action, the early move should bring the SPX back up to the daily 10-sma again, with that average at just under 1353 as I type. It might even punch the SPX up to the descending trendline off yesterday's highs, wtih that trendline now crossing just over 1355.

In other words, if the SPX trades in accordance with the futures, the early move will bring it right back into that area that gave it trouble yesterday. We're going to have to see how the day sets up to form any judgments about whether the SPX is going to be able to maintain values above its daily 10-sma and break out above that resistance. We're due a rousing relief rally at some point or another, but we're also due, in my opinion to at least a retest of lows if not new ones, and that's the battle going on in the markets. It's resulting in all this difficult-to-predict markets. While I have a view for the intermediate and longer term, I don't have a strong prediction for the order in which those events might occur, and I'm having trouble reading what's going to happen on a shorter-term. Over the last few days, setups for downside targets and upside ones, both, are not being met. In the past, I used to chastise myself for my inability to determine what was going to happen, as perhaps some of you do, too. Then I began to realize that what was happening wasn't always a failure to recognize the "right" signs, but instead a picking up of signals that there wasn't any "right" sign.

Keene Little : 2/13/2008 9:23:47 AM

Equity futures spiked up on the retail sales numbers (probably more out of relief than anything else) and ES spiked up near yesterday morning's high. As a reminder, that is the bottom of the gap from Feb 5th.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 9:21:10 AM

What is encouraging to me (as a Goldbug) though is that Crude's head and shoulder pattern was negated when the swing from January 30th was breached. This also confirmed the slight high lower from February 7th.

MACD supports the price and that is always good. Link

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 9:18:36 AM

As you all know I am a Goldbug but a Goldbug who is getting worried about the bearish head and shoulders pattern forming on the daily charts. The selloff yesterday made a lower high - not good. Now I need to see the swing low from February 5th hold up or the H&S will confirm - another not good. Link

Jane Fox : 2/13/2008 9:15:18 AM

All markets except the NDX futures (NQ) tested their previous day highs overnight giving us a very good idea where resistance will be today.

Notice the selloff the markets experienced yesterday brought NQ to new daily highs whereas the other markets did not make new daily lows. NQ is certainly the weaker market of late. Link

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