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Keene Little : 2/19/2008 11:42:32 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

With prices staying between last week's highs and Friday's lows we don't have any resolution yet as to which way the market may head over the next couple of days. Follow a break of that range:
SPX daily: Link
SPX 60-min: Link

As shown on the 60-min chart, SPX has not yet broken the short term uptrend line from Feb 11th but the DOW did break that by the end of the day. Confirmation of the break would be a break of Friday's 12278 low. The techs led the way down on Tuesday and NDX has already broken its Friday low of 1767. Based on this I'm guessing we're going to see a breakdown rather than a rally on Wednesday but that may come after a small bounce to correct Tuesday's decline.

NDX may be headed to the bottom of a sideways triangle pattern, currently near 1728, shown on its daily chart: Link . This triangle pattern (which fits in the larger EW pattern as a 4th wave correction in the decline from November) would likely see a continuation of the price consolidation into the end of the month before another leg down (dark red).

OI Technical Staff : 2/19/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 8:42:44 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 5:14:49 PM

Tesoro Restarts Hawaii Refinery After Fire ... Reuters Story (02/18/08 evening) Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 5:09:18 PM

Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) $10.67 -4.21% ... darts lower to $9.00 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 5:06:36 PM

Holly Corp. (HOC) $53.31 +12.23% ... strong day today on earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 5:02:11 PM

Crocs (CROX) $32.08 -4.03% ... plunges to $27.58 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 4:42:21 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 4:36:27 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include

7:00a.m. MBA Mortgage Refinancing Index. Previous: -3%.

8:30a.m. Jan Consumer Price Index. Expected: +0.3%. Previous: +0.3%.

8:30a.m. Jan CPI, Ex-Food & Energy. Expected: +0.2%. Previous: +0.2%.

8:30a.m. Jan Housing Starts. Previous: -14.2%.

2:00p.m. FOMC Minutes.

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 4:11:28 PM

If higher after-hours futures are any guide we've seen the low at the close and we'll get the bounce tomorrow morning. Then we'll find out if it's going to be a sloppy choppy bounce that leads to another leg down (which would give us an impulsive decline from this morning's high and indicate we'll get another leg down after being corrected) or if instead we'll start another rally leg. Too early to tell which it will be so we'll let price lead the way tomorrow morning and then jump aboard the first correction after that.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 4:04:48 PM

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $44.01 +0.31% ... called higher at $45.85 on headline numbers.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 4:02:17 PM

If these were normal times, today's candle would be a potential reversal signal, one coming just above the trendline off the 1/22 low. These are not, however, normal times, so we're going to have to start over tomorrow.

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 3:55:01 PM

Start pulling your stop down closer now with the new lows here. In fact I think covering before the close is probably a good idea. The 3rd wave down from this morning's high can now be counted as complete and we'll have to wait until tomorrow morning to find out if we're going to get another rally leg started or just another corrective bounce (as the 4th wave).

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 3:52:44 PM

The potential downside target for the SPX, as shown on the 15-minute Keltner chart, is 1341.30. For the OEX, it's 619.73.

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 3:42:05 PM

The small bounce over the past 30 minutes is the one that should lead to another low. At that point I would cover on a short play entered today since it will be possible to consider the pullback from this morning's high as complete and start another rally leg. If instead we get a choppy sideways/up correction then we'll know there's another leg down coming.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 3:39:37 PM

I started taking violin lessons a few weeks ago. I've never played any instrument, and instead of smooth strokes of the bow across the strings, I tend toward movements that make eek-eek-eek-eek sounds. This market today reminds me of that: eek-eek-eek-eek.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 3:34:16 PM

If you are long gold what is your expected target short and long term? The same for Oil. Thanks

Regan, these are intermediate term holdings so I do not have a target but certainly do have stops. Gold stop a close below $850/oz and Crude stop is close below $85.00/bl.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 3:30:46 PM

Nigerian Pres Spokesman: Okah "Alive, In Safe Custody."

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 3:27:59 PM

BLACKROCK DOESN'T SEE MORE SUBPRIME LOSSES

DJ- BlackRock says it has no material exposure or losses related to subprime assets or CDOs, responding to speculation of further such losses. It also denies any knowledge of a Department of Justice investigation.

BLK $187.77 -4.09% ...

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 3:19:29 PM

As long as the SPX can't break back above 1351-1353.50, then it's still got vulnerablility to about 1341.50. It's not a promise it will hit that level and particularly not that it will hit it this afternoon, but the charts show a potential target there.

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 3:16:39 PM

If today's decline is to mean anything more than just a correction to a bigger rally leg yet to come, SPX can't break Friday's low. If it's to be just a 3-wave pullback from this morning's high, the 2nd leg down this afternoon would achieve 162% of the 1st leg down at 1341.40. So that becomes an important level to watch if we get a little more downside. If that breaks then Friday's 1338 low will probably break and that would lead to a likely test of 1317 which remains the key level to the downside that I've had on the daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 3:13:39 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 3:10:01 PM

As you know Linda trades Iron Condors and I do as well - at least I have Mike Parnos trade Iron Condors for me. Since the daily action on the SPX daily charts shows it not breaking support or resistance and has very little power to do either, both Linda and I are quite happy. Iron Condors do will in sideways markets. ' Link

Jim Brown : 2/19/2008 3:07:04 PM

Leap Trader - USO - Oil Fund - Short Alert

I just sent this trade alert to the Leaps subscribers.

The expiration short squeeze today pushed oil back to $100 without any fundamental reason. This is just a short squeeze regardless of what the news sources are telling you.

There was a refinery explosion in Big Spring Texas that knocked 67,000 bpd offline for several weeks but that should have no real impact as we move into the low demand cycle between winter and summer. Refinery utilization was already down to 85% simply because refiners did not want to refine gasoline into a declining price market. There is plenty of available capacity to cover for the 67,000 bpd loss.

Venezuelan big mouth said he was "not serious" about cutting oil sales to the U.S. and said he may sue Exxon instead. He has no place else to sell his oil because it is a specific grade that can only be refined in at American refineries. Venezuela is not a problem but is being blamed for the spike.

OPEC is the only real problem and one spokesman said there would be no increase and no cut with production likely to remain the same during the decline in demand and that would allow inventories to rebuild.

March crude futures cease trading today. This expiration short squeeze has given us a nearly perfect entry point in our USO short.

I am recommending we enter our put play today at the current levels. I am changing the strike to reflect the $4 move in crude. The USO is currently at $78.66. I am recommending we buy the April $77 put UNA-PY currently at $3.50.

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 3:06:33 PM

No little bounce yet so I'm still waiting for that. At this point it looks like we're in a small 3rd of a 3rd wave down from this morning's high which means we'll likely see some stair-stepping lower tomorrow. Friday's low will more than likely get taken out and that would mean at least a retest of the February lows could be next (e.g., SPX 1317).

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 3:05:49 PM

Bears did not have to worry much about that 1351-ish support as the SPX plowed straight through it. Next potential support on the 15-minute Keltner chart is shown at about 1341.28.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 3:02:03 PM

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 188.99 -2.18% ... probes morning low.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 2:56:04 PM

Now it's time for the bears to be careful. The SPX is testing potential support near 1351.57, support that often holds by the end of a 15-minute period, even if it's pierced during the intraday period. Of course, this is also near gap support. Realize that today is a choppy day with bulls seeing support and buying and bears seeing resistance and selling.

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 2:52:39 PM

The sharp drop in the last 30 minutes should be followed by a consolidation lasting about 30 minutes and then another push lower so from here it looks like we should sell off into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 2:45:53 PM

iShares UK (EWU) $21.85 +1.53% ... session lows.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 2:45:53 PM

Sometimes I feel like the little boy who cried wolf, but it's important for us to know how our trades could go wrong, and the potential for this setup was apparent from the first moment that I looked at the advdec line on a Keltner chart this morning.

SPX next potential Keltner support is at 1354 and then at 1351.49, with rising trendline (not best fit but the version including all candle shadows, too, off Friday's low) support converging in that same area.

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 2:45:35 PM

CME looks on track to give us at least a minor new low before setting up a larger bounce into March. It takes a break above 590 to put it into a more bullish price pattern so in the meantime look for bounces to short this stock. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 2:44:43 PM

BOE's Barker:
Big downside risk to GDP, CPI is "chief conver."
A bit less worried about big upside risk to CPI
Tighter credit policy more restrictive
Sharp slowdown in output growth is likely
Protracted period of low growth, inflation possible
Policy decisions now unusually dependent on risks
Can't rule out fall in house prices
Signs of marked weakening in property markets
MPC to monitor property, financial markets closely
Many CPI expectations indicators worrying
Wage inflation needs to be lower than average
Overall economic data still quite positive
No exlear signs of downturn, excluding property
Immediate case for more rate cuts not compelling

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 2:38:42 PM

Crude oil prices have passed $100 a barrel for the first time since Jan. 3.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 2:35:37 PM

Nymex Crude Hits Record Intraday Level of $100.10

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 2:35:34 PM

I had mentioned the mid-day low as being important and NDX broke that shortly before 2:00 PM and now has broken to new daily lows. NQ closed this morning's gap. Techs could be leading us to the downside here.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 2:33:12 PM

Head and Shoulders on the Gold chart has been negated. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 2:33:11 PM

Staples Makes Hostile $3.7 Billion Offer For Corporate Express ... Reuters Story Link

CXP $10.78 +33.25% ...

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 2:29:50 PM

Crude is almost back to $100/bl. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 2:30:00 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $79.11 +4.18% ... that's a new 52-weeker. WKLY R2 just ahead ($79.24)

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 2:27:50 PM

Gold and US dollar update: Gold has slightly departed the close inverse relationship with the US dollar the past month or so but as I've been showing for the past few weeks, it's looking like we should get a move higher. YG (April) daily chart: Link

An upside projection to about 975 looks possible from here but it needs to break its previous high at 942 to prove it's not stuck in a larger sideways consolidation. Looking at the US dollar for some clues, the sideways triangle pattern that I've been showing for the past several weeks continues to look like the more likely path, which points lower once it completes (and should help a gold rally). US dollar daily chart: Link

Since the euro typically trades inversely to the dollar (although that too has changed slightly recently) and directly with gold, I like to keep an eye on it. It too looks like it may have finished its consolidation pattern and could be headed for a final (5th wave) high. Euro (March) daily chart: Link

But the euro's bounce can't fail here otherwise it will look like a kiss goodbye retest against its broken uptrend line from August through its December low, right where it closed today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 2:26:16 PM

Monthly Cash Machine ... ALL, AXP, KLAC, IWM and EBAY ... All filled on gap opening.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 2:15:55 PM

DJ- Nigeria Info Minister: Unaware Of Incidents Involving Jailed Militant

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 2:14:27 PM

The next level to watch for the SPX comes from a 7-minute Keltner chart and from trendline support. A best-fit (cuts off some candle shadows) trendline drawn off Friday's last swing low shows potential support near 1356.20, roughly coinciding with Keltner support near 1356.80. If the trendline were drawn so that all candle shadows were included, it would cross much lower, toward 1352.50.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 2:12:19 PM

DJ- World Bank Taps Pimco To Manage Emerging Market Debt Strategies

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 2:00:17 PM

Toll Bros. (TOL) $20.90 +0.72% ...

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 1:58:39 PM

Take a look at last Tuesday's intraday chart on a 10- or 15-minute interval. That shape remains possible for today. On a Keltner basis, the setup is not exactly analogous because the Keltner channel line that's now near 1359 was then near 1354.60, and the SPX actually was holding onto its potential support a bit better until about mid-afternoon last Tuesday than the SPX has been doing today. I'm not suggesting that the SPX will repeat Tuesday afternoon's decline again this afternoon; I'm only suggesting that before you believe the bounce off the day's low promises that it won't happen, you reassess. You could be wrong. Don't make assumptions in this market. You'll want to see the afternoon set up differently than last Tuesday afternoon set up if you're bullish. For the SPX, that probably means that you want to see the 1359-ish level continue to hold as support.

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 1:51:36 PM

This morning's lows are now important levels--if those are taken out then we should see a drop below Friday's lows. So far the bounce off this morning's low is only a 3-wave (corrective) move so even a drop below the pullback low just before 1:00 PM would be bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 1:52:54 PM

US NAHB Feb Housing Index 20 Vs. 19 in January

DJ- U.S. home builders gained a little more confidence in the market during February, but their mood remained subdued as they watched sales plunge.

The National Association of Home Builders' index for sales of new, single-family homes rose to 20 from an unrevised 19 in January, according to a news release Tuesday issued by the group.

While the gauge increased slightly, it is still far lower than its reading of 39 in February 2007.

"Some potential buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines are starting to at least research a new home purchase given improving affordability factors and the large selection of units on the market," said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. "That said, builders know there's a difference between people looking and people buying, and their current outlook remains quite subdued."

The latest government report on new-home sales in the U.S. showed demand in December tumbled by 4.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 604,000, the lowest pace in 12 years. Year over year, new-home sales were 40.7% lower than the level in December 2006.

Home builders seek government policy action to spur the moribund market. "Congress must follow up on its recently enacted economic stimulus program by passing legislation that will jump-start the housing market and keep the economy moving forward," said Sandy Dunn, the NAHB's president for 2008.

Within the NAHB's housing market index, the component for present sales of single-family homes was 20, up from 19 in January.

Expectations for sales in the next six months slid to 27 from 28 in January, the NAHB said.

The traffic of prospective buyers jumped to 19 from 14.

"While builders remain very cautious about the outlook for new-home sales given today's economic environment, the fact that more consumers appear to be checking out their options is a good sign," said Dunn, a home builder from Point Pleasant, W.Va.

The overall housing market index in February was based on a survey of 404 home builders, who answer questions about sales prospects now and in the near term. When the Housing Market Index exceeds 50, it means the number of builders who see "good" sales outnumber the number who see "poor" sales. The numbers used in compiling the index are adjusted for seasonal variations.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 1:48:46 PM

The TRAN is underperforming the SPX from a Keltner perspective. So is the OEX. The OEX hasn't really yet broken free of the resistance now at about 627.95 on the 15-minute chart, resistance that's analogous to the SPX's 1359 zone. So, doing a little reasoning (big caps underperforming), I wasn't surprised to see that the RUT also broke above the resistance that's analogous to the SPX's 1359 zone. That's at about 706.90 for the RUT. Then I noticed that the RUT has a nicely formed potential inverse H&S that's yet to be confirmed. It would be confirmed by sustained values above the current high of the day, at 710.48. The RUT's formation is potentially bullish, but the TRAN's version is sloppy with the right shoulder falling apart, so these two indices that I sometimes use as leading indicators are giving opposing views. The chop isn't surprising.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 1:47:19 PM

DJ- Nigerian Militants: Leader Possibly Killed In Military Hospital

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 1:46:32 PM

ACA Capital Holdings (OTCF: ACAH) $0.65 -7.14% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 1:45:27 PM

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) $65.31 -0.89% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 1:44:33 PM

Moody's Studying Bond-Insurer Woes On Finance Firms

DJ- Moody's Investors Service said in a new report that deterioration in the credit-risk profiles of bond insurers could result in some 20 banks and brokerage firms having to set aside tens of billions of dollars in reserve.

The credit-rating arm of Moody's Corp. (MCO) said its ongoing review of firms' public disclosure about their financial-guarantor exposures hasn't yet resulted in any firm conclusions about the banks' or brokerages' credit ratings.

But it has noted that the companies may be forced to set aside billions of dollars regarding their exposure to credit-default swaps on asset-backed collateralized debt obligations purchased from financial guarantors as hedges. Such hedges, said Moody's, total about $120 billion.

David Fanger, Moody's chief credit officer for financial institutions noted the risk analysis is looking at the loss potential on falling values of guaranteed assets or rising costs of swaps, as well as the likelihood a bond insurer can meet its obligations regardless of whether it loses its AAA rating.

Bond insurers guarantee payment of interest and principal on around $2.5 trillion in debt. Concerns their ratings may not hold - and actual downgrades for some firms - have roiled credit markets in recent weeks.

The companies have been around for decades but little noticed by the public until the recent turmoil. They built their business by guaranteeing bonds issued by municipalities. The insurance made the borrowing cheaper. Now, the insurers have become a linchpin of the financial system.

The industry plunged deeper into riskier business lines in recent years, including insurance for securities backed by subprime mortgages. The downturn in the mortgage market has exposed them to potentially sizable losses. That has, in turn, called into question whether they can maintain the AAA ratings that are critical to their business and has forced some to go looking for more money.

Fanger said lowered credit ratings for the guarantors could lead to banks and brokerages increasing their counterparty reserves on such exposures perhaps by as much as $10 billion. Counterparty risk is the danger one side of a trade can't pay its losses.

"But should both the market value of the hedged securities and banks' internal risk ratings for guarantors fall significantly lower than they are today, this could rise to as much as $20 or $30 billion," Fanger added. Moody's is in the process of evaluating the firms' individual exposure.

For the just-ended quarter, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) will take about $2.4 billion in write-downs, primarily related to securities hedged with bond insurer ACA Capital Holdings Inc. (ACAH). ACA's credit ratings were slashed to junk status in December.

Moody's went on to say securities backed by subprime, Alt-A and 2nd-lien mortgages or home-equity loans and wrapped by the bond insurers are also at risk, but the firm doesn't believe the risks to banks and brokerages are as severe.

"Nevertheless," said Fanger, "since the size of these holdings at individual banks is less clear, the extent of these charges remains more uncertain."

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 1:39:22 PM

DJ- Nymex Crude Clears $99/Bbl On Nigeria Jitters

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 1:37:42 PM

Suncor Energy (SU) $98.47 +2.18% ...

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 1:37:25 PM

No outcome yet. If you're looking at the chart today, you see the SPX oscillating around a line at about 1359, above and then below and now above again. It's hard to determine where it will go next with such choppy action. Just be aware of where the near-term vulnerabilities are so you can make appropriate decisions as to whether you're willing to hang on for the ride if the SPX should head up toward 1365-1367.50 or down toward 1351-1354. Either remains possible.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 1:37:06 PM

Sunoco (SUN) $63.58 +3.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 1:36:48 PM

Frontier Oil (FTO) $37.95 +7.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 1:35:33 PM

Full Restart Of Alon Refinery May Take Over 6-Months - DJ Source

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 1:28:27 PM

While SPX bears are assessing vulnerability to 1351-1354, SPX bulls should be assessing vulnerability to 1365.95, depending on whether the SPX can sustain values above about 1363. Both bulls and bears should remember that we're in the lunchtime lull, when prices sometimes get pushed around as big or smart money tests whether a rise will be met with renewed selling or a dip will be met with renewed buying or whether the opposite is true. Those who are scalping or day trading are along for the ride.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 1:22:38 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 1:21:46 PM

The SPX closed the last 15-minute period at the Keltner resistance nea 1359, but now rises up to test next Keltner resistance, at the current 1361.55 level. The action still looks a bit iffy, but as long as it's backed by a recovering advdec line, it's hard to argue too much against it. If in bullish trades, however, I would continue to look at potential vulnerability to a decline toward the day's low, at least, and reassess my trading plan, incorporating ideas for what to do if the SPX does roll down again toward 1351-1354.65.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 1:14:34 PM

NDX futures (NQ) is the only market to remain below its overnight lows. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 1:04:10 PM

An SPX drop down toward 1351-1353.30 continues to look possible, if not yet promised. Similarly, an OEX drop down toward 624-625 begins to look possible, too. Bulls should factor in potential vulnerability to this level, knowing how they would react if those indices do drop. If these indices rise, potential Keltner resistance lies at 1359.24 for the SPX and 627.91 for the OEX, with the SPX looking stronger so far today than the OEX.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 12:59:09 PM

Here are the charts on the S&P futures and the VIX. They are in sync today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 12:51:46 PM

HSBC Holdings (HBC) $73.78 +2.07% ... a name known to some MM bears. #3 weighting in EWU at 1/31/08 benchmark. Couldn't quite get it done at 19.1% "drag lower" conventional ($75.05) this morning.

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 12:47:15 PM

I've updated the NDX daily chart to show the potential sideways triangle that could be playing out sinc the January low. If it turns back down after today's bounce then I think this is what will play out into the end of the month before heading lower again. The downside target would be about 1550 before getting a stronger bounce into April/May. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 12:47:49 PM

iShares UK (EWU) $21.90 +1.76% ... 19.1% conventional $21.58. 38.2% conventional $22.95.

BP $66.86 +1.79% ... was largest weighted holding (7.16%) on 1/31/08 benchmark.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 12:45:33 PM

A potentially important test is going on with the SPX. It's testing the 15-minute 9-ema at the close of this 15-minute period. That 9-ema is at about 1357.60. Bears want the SPX to lose this support on 15-minute closes, but I'm not sure that will happen this 15-minute period. It's looking entirely possible that the SPX could drop toward 1353.50 or so, however, if that support is lost.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 12:44:13 PM

iShares Germany (EWG) $31.50 +2.23% ... 19.1% conventional $29.66. 38.2% conventional $31.32. 50% conventional $32.34.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 12:42:27 PM

iShares France (EWQ) $33.80 +2.30% ... 19.1% conventional $32.65. 38.2% conventional $34.40.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 12:38:31 PM

CAC-40 ($CAC) Link ... Up 24 points, or +0.49% at 4,885. Session low/high 4,807/4,940. Since in a column of O Monday, no trade at 4,700. 3-box reversal higher would be 4,900. With session high of 4,940, X's get the squares to 4,900.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 12:35:19 PM

DAX ($DAX) Link ... Up 34 points, or +0.50% at 7,002. Session high/low 7,079/6,891. Since in a column of X Monday, X gets two (2) squares today to 7,050.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 12:32:54 PM

FTSE-100 ($FTSE) Link ... Up 20 points, or +0.34% at 5,966. Session high/low 6,033/5,884. Since in a column of X on Monday, X gets the square at 6,000.

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 12:32:48 PM

Last week GOOG almost broke its downtrend line from Dec 27th which would also have been a break above the mid line of its parallel down-channel for price action since its November high. The key level for the bulls is now last week's high at 541. It's looking like it could head to another new low before a larger sideways/up correction into March. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 12:21:03 PM

Permian Basin Trust Announces February Cash Distribution ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 12:19:50 PM

I'm not sure just how much crude flows out of the Permian Basin to the Alon Refinery, but may have modest negative price impact on crude out of eastern portion of the basin.

Permian Basin Trust (PBT) $18.48 +3.06% ... holding strong.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 12:19:40 PM

SPX bulls will be cheered by the SPX bounce from its gap test, and of course a bounce is better than no bounce. I'm not sure that bulls should be convinced yet that the worst is over, though. The VIX has dropped down to support and the advdec's bounce may be flattening. So, if you're bullish, remain aware that all is still a bit iffy and at one point where another rollover could occur.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 12:03:59 PM

Venezuela To Sue Exxon Over "Stolen Oil" - Venezuela Oil Minister

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 12:02:44 PM

SPX potential next resistance at just over 1359. For the OEX, it's 627.87. Late last week, the OEX was outperforming the SPX with respect to how quickly it climbed toward or through resistance, but today, it appears to be lagging by a bit.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 12:01:02 PM

Venezuela To Pay $700M To ENI For Dacion Venture

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 11:58:47 AM

Alon Refinery (update) ... DJ- Alon USA (ALJ) advised traders that its Big Spring, Texas, refinery is expected to be down for weeks or months following a fire Monday, a trader who supplies the plant with crude told Dow Jones Newswires on Tuesday.

The 70,000 barrel-a-day refinery shut Monday, after an early-morning fire tore through the propylene splitter unit. The fire was deemed fully extinguished late Monday afternoon, said Blake Lewis, a spokesman representing the Dallas-based refiner.

The company hasn't specified a timeline for restart, but refinery manager David Foster has estimated that the plant may be offline for weeks, according to Lewis.

The trader received a call from a refinery official Monday canceling future deliveries and estimating four or five days of downtime. The official called back Tuesday morning, changing the length of the outage to "weeks or months."

The fire began at approximately 8:15 a.m. CST Monday, according to the company.

"We're starting to plot what it's going to take to bring the refinery back online," Lewis said. The focus now includes determining whether there was damage to key units, including the fluid catalytic cracker, which produces gasoline, he said.

The blast helped drive up crude prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange, sending them surging to $98.41 a barrel, up $2.91.

West Texas Sour, the crude blend used at the refinery, is trading about $1 weaker than before the explosion, at $5.75 under March futures. Most of that oil will be routed to other refineries and terminals in West Texas, though some will make its way to the storage hub at Cushing, Okla., the trader said.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 11:53:30 AM

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) $174.24 +2.78% ... matches 52-week high from 2/12/08.

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 11:51:46 AM

This morning SPX briefly poked above the top of the parallel down-channel for price action since last October's high and failed just shy of last week's high near 1369. Friday's 1338 low is now very important since a break below that level, from an EW perspective, would usher in some very strong selling. But if the bulls can reverse this morning's pullback and drive it above 1369 we should see a run to 1396, the Feb 1st high. 60-min chart update: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 11:49:17 AM

Not to be confused with Big Springs Tx in east Texas. Big Spring just NE of Midland. Almost got on a flight to Big Springs years ago.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 11:48:57 AM

I was just talking to a Market Monitor subscriber, James, who uses the 155 and 233 TICK charts. It has amazed me how many traders have migrated to the tick charts without any prior decision to do so.

So if you are one of us who have migrated to tick charts here is something I have found out from Tradestation. The definition of a tick on a tick chart depends upon what market you are trading. For the emini's, a tick occurs when 50 contracts have been traded. If 30 individuals place 1 contract orders, a tick does not occur until another 20 contract orders have been placed. If one trader places a 100 contract order, 2 ticks occur.

In some markets, a tick is any order.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 11:47:48 AM

The advdec line is consolidating along the support level at which it usually consolidates for a few 15-minute periods before deciding next direction. We have to wait it out to see next direction. In the meantime, the VIX is pulling back from historical resistance that's held over the last few days. It's so far just pulling back to support, but we have to wait this out, too.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 11:47:32 AM

I know Alon Energy (ALJ) $16.53 -9.37% ... operates refinery at Big Spring TX.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 11:41:37 AM

Big Spring Refinery Down "Weeks or Months" - Crude Trader

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 11:39:39 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $77.69 +2.31% ... sits on WKLY R1 ($77.50)

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 11:38:42 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at about 1355.90, with the SPX attempting to push through it toward higher Keltner resistance just under 1359.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 11:38:26 AM

ENI Agrees To Suspend Arbitration With PdVSA ... Signs Settlement With ENI Over Dacion Field.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 11:22:17 AM

The VIX is approaching potential resistance, so those who have been in bearish positions and profiting need to be watchful. The 25.67 level was resistance a couple of times on Friday, and 25.64 was Thursday. The VIX is at 25.60 as I type, inching back a little from its just-reached 25.64 high of the day. I show potential resistance up to about 25.90, so if you're in bearish positions, you'd like that resistance to be cleared. Unless or until it does, you need to be aware that the VIX is at a level from which previous pullbacks have occurred and be particularly protective of your profits.

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 11:20:42 AM

My concern that the rally off this morning's pre-market low was "manufactured" turns out to have been legitimate. I've seen too many of those pre-market rallies used as opportunities to sell into once the cash market opens. ES 10-min all-hours chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 11:18:54 AM

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 189.26 -2.04% ... probes WKLY S1 here.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 11:18:01 AM

The advdec line is now approaching its 15-minute 9-ema. It's at or near its low of the day, at 632 as I type, with potential support near 600 and then near 470. The advdec line normally consolidates for a few 15-minute bars when it hits this particular level of support before heading its final direction, but if there's not a strong bounce at least by the lunchtime lull, then I'd think there's now vulnerability down to about -250 to -360.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 11:15:23 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 11:14:37 AM

YM did make it all the way to the original target so maybe this market is starting to now play a little more fair.

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 11:11:55 AM

ES has now retraced 62% of this morning's gap up. It's looking like there's a good chance for gap closure (Friday's close--1351.25) at this point. While NQ and ER have broken this morning's pre-market lows, ES and YM have yet to test their lows. If ES breaks below 1355.50 then gap closure is very likely.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 11:10:28 AM

As I type, the SPX is testing its 15-minute 9-ema, as well as dropping into the gap left this morning. The 15-minute 9-ema is now at just over 1356. If this support is lost, next potential Keltner support is near 1350-1352. The SPX needs to sustain values back above about 1358.80 to improve its tenor, but unless it does that, it looks as if it has some vulnerability to those lower support levels.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 11:09:55 AM

Volumes look anemic.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:58:11 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $91.37 +2.49% ... fractions above our bull entry right before the 02/11/08 close. That day, the close was suspicious on a down tick, and weakness was found from there. Gaps above WKLY R1 ($90.84) without a backtest suggest strong demand.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 10:55:27 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1356.03. Potential resistance is now at about 1358.75. For the OEX, those numbers are 626.39 and 627.84, respectively.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:53:21 AM

US Dollar Index (DXY) 75.96 -0.39% ... fractions low from Friday's close. Monday's action did see DXY trade as high as 76.41 and trade as low as 75.80 early this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:49:22 AM

QQQQ $44.05 +0.52% ... backchecks WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:48:54 AM

RUT.X 704.00 +0.35% ... first to backcheck WEEKLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 10:43:09 AM

The DOW just reached the level (12425) where it has two equal legs down from this morning's high (SPX 1356.21 is the same projection) so watch for a possible reversal. If it doesn't reverse then gap closure could be next.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 10:41:10 AM

12431 and full target reached. I think we will have to be happy with a reduced target today.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 10:39:43 AM

While the advdec line has been dropping, the SPX has, too. It's been testing the potential support of the Keltner line now near 1358. Further potential support is now at the rising 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1355.70, but equity bulls would rather that the SPX not fall back that far.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 10:39:01 AM

YM has not gotten to my targets of late and I do not want to take a loss on this trade because I was trying for too much profit.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 10:38:13 AM

Lower stop to breakeven. alert

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:38:04 AM

Staples (SPLS) $21.85 -0.86% ...

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 10:38:00 AM

Target is sitting at 12511 - 12459 = 52. 12459 - 52 = 12407. That may be a little more than YM is capable of today and since I lowered the stop quickly I will be raising the target to 12431. alert

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:37:46 AM

Office Depot (ODP) $13.90 -1.41% ...

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 10:37:42 AM

The advdec line is now dropping more heavily, now at 860, but the first potential support line has risen fast just underneath it, too. This is one important point for the advdec line. If it bounces now, it's showing more strength than the pullback from the early high would suggest, but it does now have vulnerability to about 500.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:37:23 AM

OFFICEMAX JUMPS AS 4Q NET CLIMBS 23%

DJ- Earnings rise to $71.5 million, or 92c a share, amid cost-cutting, as the office-products retailer posts declining sales and expects economic weakness to affect results. EPS excluding items is 65c; Wall Street expected 52c.

OMX $23.58 +6.50% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:36:25 AM

MEDTRONIC 3Q FALLS 89% ON WRITE-OFFS

DJ- Medical device giant's 3Q net income falls to $77 million, or 7c a share, while revenue rises 12% to $3.41 billion. Excluding items related to write-offs and settled lawsuits related to its Marquis line of defibrillators, earnings were 63c a share.

MDT $49.80 +1.38% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:35:21 AM

MGIC Invt. Corp. (MTG) $13.40 -0.59% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:34:58 AM

MBIA Inc. (MBI) $12.06 -1.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:34:26 AM

AMBAC HOPES CAPITAL INFUSION WILL SAVE RATING

DJ- Ambac Financial Group is discussing a plan to raise at least $2 billion in much-needed capital to help the world's second-biggest bond insurer retain its top-notch credit rating, according to people familiar with the matter.

ABK $10.30 +0.78% ...

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 10:34:01 AM

I feel the bulls are still lurking in the sidelines so lowered that stop sooner than I would normally.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:33:24 AM

GENERAL MILLS SEES '08 PROFIT $3.64-$3.66 A SHARE

DJ- General Mills raises its fiscal 2008 earnings projection to a range of $3.64 to $3.66 a share, including 19c of tax and market-to-market gains, from a range of $3.39 to $3.43 a share. Wall Street expected EPS of $3.45.

GIS $56.39 (unch) ...

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 10:32:58 AM

Lower stop to 12486. alert

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 10:32:37 AM

Which just broke to the downside.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 10:32:25 AM

YM is now in a range from 12484 to 12453.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:32:14 AM

FED'S STERN CALLS RECENT RATE CUTS APPROPRIATE

DJ- Fed's Gary Stern says recent central bank rate cuts were 'wholly appropriate' given the extent of strains now being suffered by the financial sector, and warns that the U.S. economy may be in for a period of weaker growth.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 10:31:39 AM

YM made another high at 12482 and was not able to break through. This is good.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 10:31:31 AM

Keltner outlook on the advdec line: The advdec line action is not looking great--still nearer the low of the day than the high--but it's so far hanging out high enough that it's still drawing potential support up beneath it. That support now ranges from about 400-625. If there's a stronger pullback, equity bulls would like to see that support hold, but they'd rally rather the advdec line hold on here until that support catches up. The advdec line is at 1100 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:31:18 AM

HUMANA GETS NY ATTORNEY GENERAL SUBPOENA

DJ- Humana says that it has been subpoenaed by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo in connection with a lawsuit his office is bringing against UnitedHealth Group regarding payment rates for hospitals and doctors.

HUM $69.48 +1.01% ...

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 10:29:32 AM

My impression here is that the market is going to press higher again but it needs to do it soon. So far it's a bit choppy at the highs and the short term direction is up for grabs.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 10:21:55 AM

YM is once again testing the 12484 area. Of course, I do not want it to break because I am short.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:21:54 AM

Stillwater Mining (SWC) $17.68 +9.81% ... that's a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:21:19 AM

Good gavy! ... N. American Palladium (PAL) $7.69 +13.75% ... retraces 80.9% of 10/11/07 relative high to recent lows.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:19:47 AM

PAKISTAN RULING PARTY CONCEDES ELECTION DEFEAT

DJ- Pakistan's ruling party concedes defeat after opposition parties route allies of President Pervez Musharraf in parliamentary elections that could threaten the rule of America's close ally in the war on terror. Pakistan stocks, rupee higher.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:19:17 AM

BP'S FINE FOR 2005 BLAST MAY BE AS MUCH AS $3.2B

DJ- Attorneys for victims of BP's deadly 2005 plant explosion in Texas contend the oil giant's fine could be as much as $3.2 billion, dwarfing the $50 million being proposed in a plea agreement.

BP $67.35 +2.54% ...

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 10:19:01 AM

Those with March bull put spreads and who share my intention these days to close out spreads as soon as I can lock in 60 percent of my collected profit might take a look at those spreads this morning after this climb. I just closed out 8 XEO 515/505. I've now closed out all March positions except 25 SPX 1520/1530 bear call spreads and 15 1130/1120 bull put spreads. (I'm not putting on full condors for all my positions these days, more worried about the downside than the upside when I put on those positions. I had the same 25/15 ratio for my RUT bear call/bull put spreads before I closed them out, and in my other account, I had only 20 SPX bear call spreads that I closed out some time ago and those 8 XEO bull put ones.)

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:18:27 AM

MICROSOFT TO PROCEED WITH YAHOO PROXY BATTLE

DJ via CNBC- Microsoft's board will move ahead with a proxy fight, which could cost $30 million, this week rather than raise its $41.74 billion bid for Yahoo, CNBC reports.

MSFT $28.77 +1.62% ...

YHOO $29.20 -1.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:16:50 AM

BOEING CAN'T EXCLUDE MORE 787 DELAYS

DJ- Boeing says it is confident in its new delivery schedule for its much trumpeted B787 Dreamliner after a number of embarrassing hiccups, but still wouldn't rule out further delays, writes Costas Paris.

BA $86.21 +1.20% ... has pressed its conventional 38.2% ($86.74) in early trade.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:14:28 AM

GE TO ADJUST ACCOUNTING IN BID TO END PROBE

DJ via WSJ- General Electric is expected to make changes to its accounting policies and procedures in an effort to end a long-running Securities and Exchange Commission probe, The Wall Street Journal reports.

GE $34.50 +0.37% ...

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 10:13:31 AM

The advdec line is now at 1196.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:13:26 AM

CREDIT SUISSE TO TAKE $1B HIT IN 1Q ON MISMARKINGS, ERRORS

DJ- Swiss bank cuts the value of asset-backed securities by $2.85 billion, blaming the hit on mismarkings and pricing errors. This translates to a $1 billion hit on 1Q earnings. Separately, it suspends traders for overvaluation of assets.

CS $48.25 -5.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:11:53 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 262.36 -0.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:11:35 AM

KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) 87.15 -0.43% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:11:04 AM

US BANKS BORROW $50B FROM FED

DJ- U.S. banks have quietly borrowed nearly $50 billion in one-month funds from the Federal Reserve under its Term Auction Facility, reports the Financial Times. Move said to be sparking unease among some analysts about opaque loopholes.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:10:31 AM

WAL-MART 4Q NET RISES 4% ON GLOBAL SALES

DJ- Retailer posts profit of $4.1 billion, or $1.02 a share, which includes a net charge of 2c. Revenue gains 8% to $107.4 billion. Analysts expected EPS of $1.02 on revenue of $106.92 billion. Retailer offers cautious outlook.

WMT $49.55 +0.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:09:25 AM

CUBA'S CASTRO RESIGNS AS PRESIDENT

DJ- Fidel Castro resigns after nearly 50 years as president of Cuba, saying he won't accept a new term when parliament meets this week. U.S. President Bush says there is hope this will launch a transition to democracy in Cuba.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:08:50 AM

US State Dept.: No Plans To Lift Embargo Of Cuba

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 10:08:14 AM

US STOCKS JUMP AFTER MBIA, WAL-MART, CASTRO

DJ- U.S. stocks jump out of the gate after a long weekend, with the financial sector in sharp focus after a report that Lehman may be hitting a rocky patch, Credit Suisse takes a hit and MBIA's former CEO returns to the helm. Wal-Mart's earnings also are under the microscope. News Fidel Castro won't continue as Cuba's president also gives a boost.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 10:06:22 AM

So far, the SPX consolidates above Keltner support that's now at 1358.67. Equity bulls want that support to continue holding on 15-minute closes.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 10:04:24 AM

The swing high at 12484 is now a double top so all the more important and has become an excellent spot to use for stop adjustments. We are not into profit enough for that adjustment however.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 10:03:12 AM

Here's why I watch the advdec line on Keltner charts: Link The advdec line hit resistance and stopped there. See all that white space between where it is now and where the next lines course higher? That means that there's not much support beneath the advdec line and it could drop fast, with the emphasis on "could." What equity bulls want to happen instead is for it to consolidate sideways while those supporting lines course up closer under the current level. However, as I said earlier, this setup is similar to one seen when equities ended up dropping through the day, so you should be forewarned of that possibility, while keeping in mind that it's a possibility only. If you're an equity bull, you don't want to see either a sharp drop now or one after a second attempt at a new high with bearish value/RSI divergence.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 9:59:03 AM

The USDJPY pop didn't last long. It's back at 107.67 as I type, being pushed back rather quickly.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 9:59:03 AM

The CME is experiencing an industrywide outage that is affecting market data delivery for its S&P 500 Index ($INX). The ability of the CME to receive and process orders is unaffected by this outage. Furthermore, the CBOE's S&P 500 Index ($SPX.X) appears to be unaffected by this outage.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 9:58:11 AM

Since about 7:00 am ET this morning, the USDJPY has been bouncing from its 15-minute 9-ema as it rose off the early morning low. It's about to test that moving average at 107.67 or so, with the USDJPY now at 107.68. Further support ranges down to 107.63. Equity bulls would like to see the decline stop there on 15-minute closes, but some potential bearish value/RSI divergence showed up on the last pop higher, so it's possible the decline could be steeper. As long as it's not below about 107.50, the damage won't look too bad, but below that, and it might begin to add its own pressure or at least suggestion of pressure to equities.

Note: it popped higher again as I typed, bouncing after piercing that 9-ema. It's at 107.73 as I type, but still facing resistance from about 107.85-108.10.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 9:57:30 AM

AT&T (T) $37.08 -2.11% ... comes back to test its 38.2% conventional.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 9:53:58 AM

I am short YM at 12459.

I see a nice swing high at 12484 so I will use that high for my stop adjustment once we move into profit. alert

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 9:53:34 AM

The downtrend line from Feb 1st for NDX is currently near 1814. Until that level breaks there remains the possibility we'll see a large sideways triangle play out into early March (drawn on the 60-min chart: Link ). Techs have pulled back the most this morning but I think it would take a drop below this morning's pre-market lows in the futures before the gap up is in trouble (ES 1355.50, YM 12402 and NQ 1799.75).

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 9:53:07 AM

Tesoro (TSO) $38.84 +4.71% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 9:52:46 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $60.16 +3.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 9:52:05 AM

March Unleaded (rb08h) $2.60 +4.41% ... has matched its 1/03/08 high of $2.61 today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 9:51:10 AM

March Crude (cl08h) $98.30 +2.93% ... expires tomorrow.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 9:50:56 AM

The Dow futures (YM) got very overbought yesterday and then made a very nice overbought retracement. However, YM then traded to new overnight highs again so I am looking for a retracement off those highs and will try a short to take advantage of what I think will be a very quick move down.

I will take YM short at 12459 with a stop at 12511. alert

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 9:50:05 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $77.99 +2.71% ... challenges what could be viewed as a potential "right shoulder" of a h/s top. 52-week high was $79.09 from 1/03/08.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 9:47:53 AM

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) $120.02 +4.86% ... that's a new 52-weeker.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 9:46:57 AM

The advdec line is pulling back and so are prices. It's never good for the SPX to pull back so sharply from the first advance, but it does look as if the SPX will close this 15-minute period well above the (now current) 1358.45 benchmark resistance that it plowed through earlier this morning. I would think that, even if the SPX is going to continue to gain all day, either a pullback to that 1357-1360 level or else that some consolidation while the 9-ema rises beneath it might be in order soon. The consolidation would be the most bullish, of course.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 9:44:08 AM

I trade the DOW on the 377 tick and of late it has not been treating me well. I had a streak of trades that could not go bad then; of course, I had to live through the streak of trades that could not get to full profit. This is what trading is all about and you have to stick with your rules but yet have enough flexibility to realize you need to make some kind of change.

Since my trades were not quite making it to full target I decided to start trading a lower timeframe, the 233 tick. (Notice the ticks I use are all Fibonacci numbers). That did not work out well so have decided to go back to the timeframe that I am most familiar with, the 377.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 9:43:30 AM

QQQQ $44.30 +1.09% ... strong gap well above WEEKLY Pivot had QQQQ as high as $44.49. Look for some early profit taking among bulls back to WEEKLY Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 9:43:59 AM

Keltner outlook on the advdec line: The early Keltner setup on the advdec line is similar to Wednesday, 2/6, but bulls want any similarity to stop there. The advdec line has zoomed up to and through the upper channel line, so into potential breakout mode territory. The benchmark is at about 1600 now, with the advdec line now at 1820 as I type with RSI at 94.80. On 2/6, the first 15-minute advance was sharply rebuffed, the advdec line then climbed to a new high and then rolled over, bringing prices lower with it. Bulls can watch the advdec line then for some clues as to likely next action. Bulls want the advdec line to stay in breakout mode all day, while bears want sharp pullbacks, hopefully into negative territory. Be aware that RSI is extreme.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 9:42:24 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $28.73 +0.52% ... gap open higher came at WEEKLY Pivot, subtle decline taking place here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 9:40:53 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $157.90 +4.28% ... retraces 38.2% of its 12/06/07 relative high to recent 1/22/08 relative low.

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 9:39:24 AM

MBIA's CEO Expects Restructuring Deal In Next 2 Weeks

DJ via CNBC- ... MBIA Inc. (MBI) Chief Executive Jay Brown is "optimistic" that he can achieve some sort of restructuring arrangement within the next two weeks, CNBC's David Faber reported Tuesday morning.

The deal likely will involve the New York State Insurance Department, but the bond ratings agencies are not currently at the table, Faber said.

In the future, Brown told Faber that MBIA "will not be financial guarantor in structured products market."

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 9:37:55 AM

That 1357-1360 resistance didn't prove to be a problem at all, did it? Or did it? The first 15-minute period has not yet concluded. Bulls don't want to see a pullback below 1358.50 by the conclusion of the first 15-minute period. There is absolutely no sign that a pullback that deep is going to happen after Wednesday's 1369.12 high has been approached, but just do not ignore the possibility that such things can and do happen.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 9:36:23 AM

AD line is a very bullish +1682

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 9:36:02 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The current economic environment is reminiscent of the early 1990s, when growth was held back by "headwinds" related to a lack of credit, said Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern on Tuesday.

"The possibility of a credit crunch, and its attendant effects on economic performance, cannot be ruled out," Stern said in a speech to a business group in Minneapolis.

Stern said his definition of a credit crunch was: "an environment in which quality borrowers find credit either unavailable or available only on very expensive terms."

This issue is weighing on monetary policy makers, he said

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 9:34:48 AM

By the way, SPX's MACD suggests it will be resistance that will break.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 9:34:11 AM

The daily chart of the SPX is very clear with support at 1320 and resistance at 1400. I would be on the sidelines until I see that support break or the resistance break and remember that break needs to be a CLOSE and not just a trade above or below. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 9:33:28 AM

Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly Index Pivot Matrix at this Link

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 9:32:10 AM

Another thing that makes me a bit watchful (other than the ignoring of the Northern Rock debacle) is the action of the USDJPY. From the moment currency trades opened last night, it dropped overnight into a retest of Friday's overnight low. It's been climbing ever since, but will soon face resistance of its own, just under 108 and then up to this morning's overnight high, at 108.09. It's at 107.73 as I type.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 9:31:22 AM

I am also long Crude so quite happy about the double bottom (we call this a "W"). There is now a high probability $100/bl will be tested again. Link

Linda Piazza : 2/19/2008 9:29:37 AM

Futures are higher, of course, a bit surprising given what's happening in England (nationalization of lender Northern Rock to keep it from failing and dragging down the banking sector). The first news of Northern Rock's problems temporarily swamped markets across the globe a few months ago, but perhaps there's a bit of the-worst-is-known and the-government-will-take-care-of-it reaction this morning.

If the cash market behaves in accordance with the futures' action, which doesn't always occur, then we may get a test of the 1357-1360 zone that was causing problems last Thursday. I show potential resistance now at 1357.41 on the SPX's 15-minute chart, but that will get pushed a bit higher if the SPX gains strongly in the first few minutes.

Watch carefully as this resistance is tested, if it is, with another resistance band continuing up toward 1370. There's no proof of any kind of pop-and-drop reaction, but remain aware that resistance is being tested.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 9:28:48 AM

Gold is respecting the upward trendline made from the lows on January 18th and February 2nd. I ignored the low made on January 22nd because it was a very quick move.

Needless to say this Goldbug is a happy Goldbug today. Link

Keene Little : 2/19/2008 9:26:09 AM

After pulling back most of the overnight session, equity futures were driven higher since the lows near 4:30 AM and briefly exceeded the Monday morning highs (except for NQ). The run up in prices since 4:30 AM this morning looks a little suspicious (easy to manipulate futures pre-market) so I'd be a little wary of a gap n crap this morning. But if the market can hold this morning's gains and get some follow through then there is the possibility we could see a bullish week ahead of us.

Jane Fox : 2/19/2008 9:24:19 AM

Good morning all and I hope you all had a relaxing President's Day weekend. Nice to have a long weekend in February isn't it?

Since the markets trade on most American holidays, albeit on very thin volume, I have a difficult time considering the ranges on these holidays as previous day ranges. These thinly traded days do not usually break any previous day highs or lows but yesterday's trading most certainly did. So I am using yesterday's range as the previous day range even though it holds less significance because of the low volume.

With that said, the only market that did not break those previous day highs, and make new overnight highs, was the NDX futures (NQ). Look for this market to the weaker market today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/19/2008 9:07:52 AM

Friday's Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Friday's Closing Internals at this Link

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