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Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 1:03:03 AM


Keene Little : 3/6/2008 12:44:09 AM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

The setups for tomorrow are very similar for the different indices. The SPX 60-min chart shows the possibility for a continuation higher (dark red) to a Fib target at 1357 for two equal legs up and a 62% retracement of the decline from last week's high: Link

If we instead get a pullback in the morning watch to see if support holds near 1314 to then start another rally leg. If SPX drops below Wednesday's 1307 low then all bullish bets are off.

NDX 60-min chart shows a bit of an opposite expectation with the dark red count showing a selloff on Thursday to new lows: Link . It takes a break of the 1707 low to say that's the correct count. Otherwise a pullback that finds support near 1733 could get another rally leg up to the 1790 area (pink). This market is keeping us on our toes.

OI Technical Staff : 3/5/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 4:21:02 PM

Economic Reports on the docket for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Mr 1 Week. Expected: -8K. Previous: +19K.

10:00a.m. Jan Pending Home Sales. Expected: -1.5%. Previous: -1.5%

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 4:06:53 PM

The small rally into the close keeps the door open to another rally leg out of the gates tomorrow morning. SPX has broken above its downtrend line from last week's high. But the first thing it will ned to do tomorrow is get above 1336 which is where this afternoon's bounce will have two equal legs up. If it fails at that level then we could get another leg down to match the drop off this morning's high. The choppy whipsaw potential in this market remains alive and well.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 4:04:29 PM

Crude hit a high of 104.95 today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 3:55:38 PM

VIX.X 25.08

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 3:54:23 PM

DXY's 03:00 tick was 73.47 ... after four (4) days close of 73.71, not the strongest of closes for the greenback.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 3:51:33 PM

CRB Index went out 419.75

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 3:51:12 PM

HUI.X 500.45

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 3:38:24 PM

I've got April Crude +19.78% last 20-DyNet%

April Unleaded +10.00%

Heating Oil +22.5% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 3:29:44 PM

Nothing like the 14 million in MO though.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 3:29:08 PM

PBR as an example

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 3:28:12 PM

As I look at several intra-day chart on 5-minute intervals, there were quite a few VOLUME spikes at/around 11:30 AM ESt.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 3:14:18 PM

Tesoro (TSO) $35.76 -0.05% ... battles back to 19.1% conventional.

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 3:14:30 PM

After briefly popping above the downtrend line from last week's high this morning (on another false hope for Ambac) SPX dropped back below the line. It has now bounced up to it again, currently 1332.40, still finding it as resistance.

It's dicey here--we could get another leg down for a deeper pullback from this morning's high or continue rallying. It needs to get above 1335 to suggest we're into the next rally leg (1357 upside target). But another leg down could have us testing yesterday's low (two equal legs down from today's high is at 1310).

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 2:59:32 PM

S&P Revises Pima County Industrial Devlp. Auth, AZ Bond Rating Outlook to "Stable"

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 2:55:58 PM

VIX.X 25.06 -1.80% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 2:54:41 PM

"If you can't beat'em, join'em"

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 2:54:22 PM

Swing trade long alert! ... for one (1) of the Petroleo Brasileiro PBR April $125 Calls (PMD-DE) at the offer of $4.30.

PBR $116.21 +3.25% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 2:48:55 PM

Philip Morris USA Takes Action Against Internet-Based Cigarette Vendors
Files Complaint With ITC
MO $74.40 +0.75% ... Biiiiiiiiiiiig volume spikes at 11:30 AM EST.

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 2:46:12 PM

I have to sign off, and I'm not certain that I'll be back before the close. So far, we're having another day of consolidation, but with an hour and 15 minutes to go, anything is possible. I'm beginning to wonder if markets are going to consolidate into Friday's Non-Farm payrolls. This consolidation is taking place at the bottom of a larger consolidation band, so it's difficult to draw many conclusions. Keltner channels just don't give a prediction for the end of day movements.

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 2:31:19 PM

Assuming for now that this afternoon's low will be the end of the pullback, a projection for the next leg up (for equality with the leg up off yesterday's low) would take SPX up to 1357 which lands it right on top of the 62% retracement of the past week's decline. 60-min chart: Link

Now let's see if the bulls can drive this back above the high just past 1:00 PM today (1337.53) to confirm that that is probably the likely scenario. If price instead drops to a new low from here (can't bounce much more) then the pattern turns more bearish.

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 2:30:36 PM

SPX Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes, up to about 1329.27, is holding so far. The Keltner picture is currently unclear. According to the current setup, the SPX could as easily fall toward 1310-1312 as it could push up toward 1337-1338.

Tab Gilles : 3/5/2008 2:19:57 PM

Weekly EIA Report Link

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 2:17:32 PM

That 1328-1329.50 zone may now provide resistance for the SPX. The Keltner channels suggest that it could, but the SPX moved so swiftly down through that zone that it could move as swiftly back up through it.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 2:16:31 PM

Swing trade cancel order alert! ... to sell the MBI-EC for a LIMIT of $1.35.

MBI $12.63 -2.69% ...

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 2:14:20 PM

The little consolidation near the low looks, again, like another leg down is coming. The correction is getting large enough now to be considered the 4th wave correction in today's decline. Another new low would would give us an impulsive decline and would say shorting the bounce following the next low will be the right play.

But if the bulls can save it here and drive it back up above the highs just past 1:00 PM then we will see another rally leg. The next move from here will be the telling one.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 2:03:52 PM

TNX.X 3.645% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 2:03:43 PM

DIA $121.80

SPY $132.60

IWM $67.62

QQQQ $42.76

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 2:03:01 PM

Fed Beige Book (Prior to 2/25/2008) at this Link

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 1:53:01 PM

While preparing charts for tonight's newsletter I've got the 3 futures charts up on another screen and I'm watching to see if they might find support where the 2nd leg down equals 162% of the 1st leg down from this morning's high--ES 1318, YM 12132 and NQ 1736.75.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 1:51:20 PM

My goodness this is not looking good is it? Link

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 1:50:14 PM

The VIX is not supporting S&P futures (ES)'s new daily lows, in order to support those lows the VIX would have to make new daily highs. This tells me the new lows will NOT have follow through. Although you can say anything will not have follow through lately and you would be spot on. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 1:46:49 PM

If the SPX does not steady near its current 1322-ish level, then this drop begins to look more serious. As of now, it's certainly serious to those who did not take the opportunity to make profit-protecting plans for their bullish plays, but not serious in the scope of what's going on in the chart. The drop just looks as if it got a little deeper than expected, but that could change.

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 1:44:12 PM

I'm battling a slow connection here working from out of town. I've been trying to add a post for the last couple of minutes to say that the advance/decline line has now erased its breakout status and has been falling fast. That, of course, changed the outlook for what would happen on the SPX, but I couldn't get the post added quickly enough. The advdec line is now attempting to steady at possible support near -178, but this development does change things.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 1:42:31 PM

Ambac (ABK) $9.37 -12.59% ... released for trade.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 1:41:57 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 1:39:20 PM

We have a while to go before the release of January's Beige Book at 2:20, but don't forget that's coming up.

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 1:38:28 PM

It's dropping through the Fib levels that should have provided some support if there was to be a bullish resolution to this pullback. This signals something at least a little more bearish here so don't be trying any long plays for now--shorting the bounces is still the preferred trade (trade with the trend).

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 1:37:13 PM

10-year 3.655% ... edges back under WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 1:36:40 PM

DXY 73.409 -0.34% (30-minute delayed) ... probes recent low.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 1:36:00 PM

IWM $67.80 -0.02% ... darts back under conventional 19.1%

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 1:35:07 PM

The SPX has dipped a little lower than the 1329.12 Keltner vulnerability that I had mentioned in my 12:52:24 post, but it's testing the same Keltner level that I had been referencing. The drop pushed it a little lower, currently to 1328.24, but it's dropping below it, back down into a test of the 1326.66 level that's the 23.6% retracement of the decline into yesterday's low. This is not consolidation, but not yet terribly convincing of weakness for the rest of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 1:34:36 PM

I'm going to have to agree with "perma bear" Gasparino that the mortgage insurers are either dead money, or risk to downside for several months.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 1:33:30 PM

Swing trade call exit alert! ... for the one (1) MBIA Inc MBI May $15 Call (MBI-EC) at a LIMIT of $1.35.

MBI $12.50 -4.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 1:32:00 PM

Ambac To Keep $100M In Proceeds At Holding Co

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 1:30:49 PM

The techs remain stronger today. Not only has NDX retraced nearly 62% of the past week's decline (while the RUT hasn't even retraced 38%), today's pullback is so far shallower. Two equal legs down would be at 1746.74 which is shy of a 38% retracement (1744.17) of the rally off yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 1:30:36 PM

Not seeing any details. Probably similar to MBI

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 1:30:11 PM

Ambac Files Prospectus For Offering Of Common Stock

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 1:29:17 PM

Ambac To Stop Underwriting CDOs, Mortgage-Backed Securities

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 1:28:33 PM

Ambac Doesn't Expect To Get "Stable" Outlook From S&P, Moody's

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 1:25:54 PM

For the DOW two equal legs down is at 12186, just below its 50% retracement at 12192.

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 1:22:44 PM

Now watch for where the move down from today's high will have two equal legs down for possible support. For SPX two equal legs down is at 1326.81 and that places it just shy of a 50% retracement of the bounce off yesterday's low which is at 1325.39.

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 1:08:37 PM

The decline from today's high was an impulsive 5-wave drop and now we've got a 3-wave corrective bounce (so far). The bounce should be followed by another leg down and then it will be time for the bulls to show us what they've got.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 1:02:19 PM

Crude high for the day is $104.56/bl. When crude was hitting $100/bl the price of gas was actually heading down but I see that the price of gas is now getting in sync with Crude and starting to really move up as well. I know the price of crude is only a portion of the price of gas (distilling and transportation are the bulk of it) but at some point the price of Crude will have an impact.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 12:59:17 PM

I think I will add Crude to my list of markets you should NOT short. Link

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 12:58:04 PM

Like I have repeated on many many occasions, short Gold at your own peril. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 12:52:24 PM

We're seeing the normal lunchtime lull cross of the SPX's and OEX's smallest Keltner channels. Will it go further? That's the rub. You don't know the results of consolidation or of a normal lunchtime lull move until after it's been completed. This is why I suggested in my 3:31:43 post yesterday that you evaluate your trades with a possible scenario that saw the SPX climbing into the 1337-1347 zone and then consolidating there, perhaps for maybe a day or even two. So far, the advance/decline line maintains its breakout status on the Keltner charts. As long as it does, then either continued consolidation or even a climb are possible and perhaps even more likely.

However, the SPX looks weaker now on a Keltner basis than it did earlier. It looks vulnerable to 1329.12-1331.45.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 12:37:34 PM

Stepping away for an hour ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 12:33:15 PM

VXO.X 26.82 -4.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 12:32:56 PM

DIA $122.78

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 12:32:44 PM

Swing trade call exit alert! ... for the one (1) Dow Diamonds DIA April $123 Call (DAW-DS) at the bid of $3.65.

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 12:30:27 PM

NDX retraced almost 62% of the decline from Feb 28th and that sets up the possibility that the bounce off yesterday's low is all there will be. The next move could be a swift decline to new lows (dark red). The intermediate bullish wave count (pink) will be looking for a pullback and then another push higher but that's where the bulls will need to prove themselves. The bears still control this market until the bulls can prove them wrong. 60-min chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 12:27:48 PM

Still consolidating. So far, the SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is holding as support on 15-minute closes, with that average now at 1336.39. We're approaching the lunchtime lull, though, so a drop to 1332.67 can't be ruled out. For the OEX, those numbers are 615.15 and 613.60.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 12:28:53 PM

Today's crude oil inventories certainly throw a "wrench in the engine" of the fundamental trader.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 12:26:06 PM

Computers still under control as tensions heat up for Q1 expiration.

Will institutional traders roll positions, or close them out on an outright basis into expiration?

Stay tuned and know where the OI is at.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 12:25:00 PM

Internals remain bullish but trading has been anything but easy today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 12:23:37 PM

10-year has see 37.02, or 3.702%

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 12:22:53 PM

DIA $123.06

SPY $134.06

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 12:13:34 PM

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Now we're getting somewhere.

The editor of the average short-term market timing newsletter over the past two sessions has become significantly more bearish. And that's bullish from a contrarian point of view.

In fact, a contrarian case can now be made that the Jan. 22 lows will not be broken.

This is a markedly more bullish picture than contrarians were painting as recently as a week or two ago, when there was little confidence those lows would hold. See Feb. 19 column What happened to make the contrarians more cheerful?

For the whole story here is the link. Link

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 12:09:18 PM

Is Charlie Gasparino at it again? One of these days CNBC is going to have a "breaking story" and everyone is going to ignore them. There's a reason I don't watch the cheerleading network.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 12:08:26 PM

MBIA Inc. (MBI) $14.25 +9.63% ... comes to near-term trend (1/24/08 relative high to recent 2/26/08 relative high)

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 12:07:15 PM

Ambac Financial (ABK) alert! $11.34 +5.78% ... halted. News pending.

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 12:06:52 PM

The consolidation has in fact resolved to the upside and the DOW is now into the potential resistance zone mentioned earlier this morning (12340-12360). The new high is also showing some bearish divergences so be careful if long--pull your stops up tighter now.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 12:05:52 PM

10 year up 12.3 at 3.702% ... tries to break free of WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 12:05:13 PM

QQQQ Alert! $43.523 +1.42% ... gets the trade at WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 12:00:03 PM

DIA $123.04

SPY $134.02

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 11:51:49 AM

With the consolidation near the highs I could certainly make a strong argument for another push higher. But I could argue equally strongly for the start of a deeper pullback from here. It's a tough spot to enter a trade. If it breaks higher it might only be good for a relatively minor new high before starting the deeper pullback so I think the long side is the riskier side at the moment.

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 11:51:22 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1334.97. It's beginning to flatten. When that happens, the SPX sometimes crosses all the way to the other side of its smallest channel, with that boundary now at 1332.40. Typically that happens later in the day, during the lunchtime lull, if it happens at all, but it's a possibility with the flattening 9-ema.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 11:38:47 AM

Swing trade put exit alert! ... the one (1) Stillwater Mining SWC March $20 Put (SWC-OD) at the bid of $1.00.

SWC $21.13 +2.37% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 11:30:40 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $81.83 +3.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 11:30:18 AM

DJ- Euro Rises Above $1.53 First Time Ever

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 11:28:25 AM

Consolidation continues. The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1333.76; the OEX's, 614.13. Bulls want to see that hold as support on 15-minute closes. Then they want the support confirmed by a bounce to a new high. Bulls should be spending this consolidation period thinking about how they'll treat a test of 1347-1348, if it's approached.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 11:24:03 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 11:20:21 AM

The DOW daily chart shows how price has found support at the long term uptrend line from October 2002, currently near 12185. It's been pierced 3 times now, the most significant time at the January low and yesterday being the 3rd time. A 4th drop through it would likely not get turned around and yesterday's low is a key level now. In the meantime, the bullish potential is for a rally back up to 13200 (pink count) which would obviously be a great trade. Link

That's the potential upside but there's a lot of work to be done before that scenario becomes a top choice from an EW perspective. First we'll need to see a pullback to correct the rally off yesterday's low and then another leg up. After that we'll get some clues as to what could be next. In the meantime we're still stuck in a trading range. Link

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 11:17:39 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures surged nearly 3% to trade above $102 a barrel Wednesday after data showed U.S. crude inventories fell unexpectedly and after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to keep its production levels unchanged.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 11:17:12 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- After dropping sharply in January, nonmanufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy rebounded during February, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday.

The ISM nonmanufacturing composite index rose to 49.3% from 44.6% in January. Read full survey. The increase was above forecasts. Economists had been looking for the index to increase, but only to 47.9%.

The index remains below the 53.2% level set in December. Readings under the 50% mark indicate most firms are contracting.

"Business activity is slightly better than we were last month, but we've slowed down considerably from where we were in 2007," said Anthony Nieves, chair of the ISM non-manufacturing survey.

Stocks traded solidly higher after the report was released.

Business activity, new orders and employment improved in February, the ISM data showed. Eight of the 18 industries were improving in February, while nine were contracting.

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 11:12:38 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1333.05; the OEX's, 613.79.

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 11:04:12 AM

I changed my 11:02 post to read "I would not be surprised." I had omitted the "not" earlier.

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 11:02:58 AM

Looking at the SPX's chart again, in concert with the advance/decline line, I'm noticing that the advance/decline line is so far maintaining its breakout status. As long as it does, I would not be surprised if the current consolidation pattern on the SPX eventually moves toward 1347-1348, where the next Fib and historical resistance lie. Before that happens, however, the SPX might need to either dip to or move sideways into the rising 15-minute 9-ema. That's now at 1332.32 but the SPX could continue the consolidation until it rises a little closer before dipping to it. Bulls will want to see a bounce into a new high after testing that average, if it's tested.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 11:01:16 AM

Tesoro (TSO) Alert! $33.96 -5.08% ... breaks below 1/22/08 relative low.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:59:32 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Surve at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:53:17 AM

OPEC Holds Steady:

DJ- (Edited Press Release) ... In reviewing the prospects for the oil market, the Conference highlighted the economic slowdown in the U.S., which, together with the deepening credit crisis in financial markets, is increasing the downside risks for world economic growth and, consequently, demand for crude oil. The Conference observed that the market is well-supplied, with current commercial oil stocks standing above their five-year average. The Conference further noted, with concern, that the current price environment does not reflect market fundamentals, as crude oil prices are being strongly influenced by the weakness in the U.S. dollar, rising inflation and significant flow of funds into the commodities market. In spite of the seasonally low demand in the second quarter, the Conference decided to maintain OPEC production levels, emphasized that increased uncertainty and volatility call for continued market vigilance and reiterated the commitment of Member Countries to market stability and ensuring adequate supplies. The Conference was briefed by the Head of Delegation of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela on the ongoing legal dispute between ExxonMobil Corp., on the one hand, and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and its national oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA, on the other. The Conference expressed its support to the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and Petroleos de Venezuela SA, in the exercise of its sovereign rights over its natural resources, in accordance with international law, a right reiterated by the Algiers, Caracas and Riyadh Summit Declarations of OPEC Heads of State and Government. The Conference called for resolving any such disputes through good faith and amicable negotiations, and excluding ex parte prejudgement measures which will make finding fair solutions more difficult. The Conference welcomed the Yasuni-ITT Initiative presented by Ecuador and expressed its interest and support, considering that this proposal is consistent with the energy and environment-protection objectives. The Conference passed Resolutions that will be published April 5, 2008, after ratification by Member Countries. The Conference decided that its next Ordinary Meeting will be convened in Vienna, Austria, on Sept. 9 2008.

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 10:52:18 AM

SPX consolidation near the 38.2% retracement of the decline into yesterday's low is not surprising. This occurs in the 1337-1347 (and maybe up to 1348) zone that includes Keltner, Fib and historical resistance. What will the outcome be? Yesterday I mentioned that we might see some follow-through this morning, followed by consolidation and it wouldn't be until that was over that we knew much. Perhaps this afternoon's Beige Book might be enough to break the consolidation pattern, if it hasn't already been broken, but that would depend on what the Beige Book has to say.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:49:50 AM

Gold Fields: 100% Power At S. Africa Mines Highly Unlikely

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:48:25 AM

For those new to the MM, metals prices SURGED in early February on news of power outages in S. Africa.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:47:02 AM

SWC $20.64 (unch) ...

PAL $8.19 -3.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:46:22 AM

Gold Fields: S. Africa Miners Hoping For 5% Power Hike Friday

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:43:37 AM

Yesterday's April Crude Settlement was "smack on" March expiration's. Just as it looked like we might see some relief. Shorts under pressure again.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 10:43:01 AM

An AD line at +958 supports the bullish side as well. So I would be buying the dips.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 10:42:18 AM

Here are the charts of the S&P futures (ES) and the VIX. As you can see they are in sync and bullish. I would be very careful if short. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:41:25 AM

President Bush: "Obvious" That Demand For Oil Outstripping Supply

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:37:12 AM

EIA: US Refineries Ran At 85.9%

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:36:02 AM

"big 10" breadth positive at 8:2

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:35:40 AM

DIA's "big 3" ... IBM +0.08%, CVX +1.15%, XOM -0.03%

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 10:35:24 AM

The advance/decline line looks as if it's ready to either consolidate or perhaps pull back. If it does, the SPX is likely to go with it. The advdec line is at 1254 as I type, and next support is way down at about 635-735.

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 10:34:17 AM

I wanted to let subscribers know that I do not have access to my email today, so if you've written me, I am unfortunately unable to respond. If you have a time-sensitive issue, you might try one of the the other writers.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:34:05 AM

EIA: Gasoline Stockpiles Up 1.657M Bbls

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:33:21 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) alert! $81.62 +2.79% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:32:48 AM

EIA: Crude Oil Stockpiles Down 3.05M Bbls

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:30:28 AM

Mexico's Cemex Says It Sees $400M Synergies From Rinker Buy ... CX $27.28 +1.11% ...

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 10:25:19 AM

So far, the SPX is powering past Keltner, Fib and historical resistance. The advance/decline line has now gained enough that it's set up a breakout mode. It is not, in fact, following Friday's pattern in reverse, clinging to resistance as Friday's candles clung to support, but is instead so far creating a real breakout mode.

Despite that, the most likely expectation is for the SPX to find a resistance zone somewhere at or before 1347-1348 and then consolidate, for a while, maybe for hours or even for a day. If not, the 1350-1351 zone may be next.

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 10:24:28 AM

The 10-dma and 20-dma for SPX coincide at 1347-1348. Sligthly lower are the 30-min 100/130 moving averages at 1344-1346. A downtrend line from last week's high is at 1343. So there's some tough resistance just above and will likely set up a pullback (from either here or a little higher first).

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 10:20:40 AM

A potential resistance level for the DOW is in the 12350-12365 area. This is where the 30-min 100/130 moving averages are located. On the daily chart we've got the 20-dma at 12368 and the 10-dma at 12376

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:16:25 AM

Today's Global Econ Calendar Link

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 10:10:29 AM

The 38.2% retracement of the SPX's decline off the 2/27 high into yesterday's low is at about 1338.44. The 50% retracement is at about 1347.96. Both retracement levels can be important enough to stall progress for a little while. The SPX is also still testing that potential Keltner resistance now extending up to about 1337.50 on 15-minute closes. Consolidation or a pullback toward the 9-ema at 1327.41 wouldn't be unexpected.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:09:54 AM

10-year yield up 5.5 bp at 3.634% ... moves into its recent down gap. WKLY Pivot key at 3.665%.

DIA $123.11 +0.58% ...

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 10:08:11 AM

A 38% retracement of the decline from last week is at DOW 12311 (just hit) and SPX 1338 (a little higher).

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:05:49 AM

DIA $123.18 +0.63% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:05:11 AM

DJ- Dollar Rises Vs Yen, Euro After ISM Data

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 10:03:57 AM

Big buying spike so it's not looking like there's going to be any pullback for now. Resistance for the DOW could be its broken uptrend line from January, currently near 12320 which is coming up.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 10:02:02 AM

Oh my! ... Big Lots (BIG) $21.27 +22.49% ...

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 10:00:55 AM

OEX traders: Potential Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes exists at 615.24 and then 615.98. The 15-minute 9-ema is now at 610.06.

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 9:56:35 AM

Keltner outlook on the advdec line: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 9:56:12 AM

SWC $20.00 -3.10% ... working on the $20.00 strike.

PAL $8.05 -4.84% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 9:55:33 AM

June Palladium (pa08m) 537.45 -5.78% ... off lows of $522.20.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2008 9:54:03 AM

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) $141.33 +4.48% ... breaks above conventional 19.1% (still using a 1/22/08 low)

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 9:49:28 AM

Everyone's waiting for the other side to blink. The market is stalled and I'm not sure which way it's going to go. I'd still prefer to see a pullback to set up the next rally leg.

Linda Piazza : 3/5/2008 9:45:11 AM

I've just arrived in Houston. I'll be working from out of town today but will attempt to sign on as often as possible. I'm looking at the SPX's chart, noting potential Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes at 1335.80 and then again at 1337.38. We know that there's potential historical and Fib resistance in a band from 1337-1347, and this 15-minute chart corroborates the potential resistance at the bottom of that band. If you're in bullish trades, formulate your plan for dealing with this potential resistance, as other chart characteristics show the possibility that the SPX might follow through on gains today and then, at some point, perhaps sometime this morning or this afternoon, begin consolidating again. That's just one possible scenario and not a given. At some point, we're likely to get a rally that lasts a week or two, and maybe this is even it, but even such a rally would likely be subject to some swift pullbacks occasionally.

If the SPX pulls back now, the 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1322.65 and bulls would like to see that hold on 15-minute closes.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 9:35:20 AM

AD line opens at +799, respectful but not overly bullish.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 9:32:42 AM

Yesterday both Hillary Clinton and the SPX looked over the edge, almost took a tumble but were able to return from the brink. Link

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 9:30:45 AM

Looks like Crude will have just as hard a time breaking $100/bl as support as it did breaking it when it was resistance. However I still think it will before it makes new all time highs. Link

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 9:28:21 AM

Linda has been called out of town unexpectedly. She said she will try to log in and join us later in the day.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 9:27:10 AM

The needed retracement I have been talking about in the gold market needs to be a little deeper than this. If you review previous retracements you will see they last at least 3 days so I suspect Gold has further to retrace before it makes new yearly highs. Link

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 9:23:26 AM

Overnight the markets tested their previous day highs, all that is except the NDX futures (NQ) which was able to break those highs. the series of higher highs and lows tell me the bulls have control. Link

Keene Little : 3/5/2008 9:22:47 AM

Equity futures are set to open in the green this morning so it raises a question as to whether or not we're going to get a small pullback first thing this morning before rallying again. If it rallies first then it could set up a deeper pullback so be careful chasing an early push higher.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 8:59:38 AM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The volume of applications filed for mortgages went up a seasonally adjusted 3.0% last week, coinciding with a big drop in interest rates charged on fixed-rate mortgages, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's latest survey.

Applications to refinance existing home loans rose 4.5% for the week ended Feb. 29 compared with the previous week, the Washington-based MBA said Wednesday. The Feb. 22 week was shortened for the Presidents Day holiday.

Home-purchase loan applications were up a seasonally adjusted 1.4% on a week-to-week basis.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 8:58:55 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Planned corporate job reductions numbered 72,091 in February, down by about 4% from January's announced cuts and "well below" recessionary levels, outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas reported Wednesday.

The planned job cuts were down 14% from the 84,014 of February 2007. Through the first two months of the year, layoffs unchanged from last year, Challenger Gray's data showed.

In February, the government and nonprofit sector took over the top spot from the financial industry, cutting 10,870 jobs. Retail firms announced 6,918 job reductions.

"The fact that these two sectors topped the job-cut list in February is clear evidence that the slowdown has moved beyond the housing and financial industries," said John Challenger, chief executive of the firm that bears his name.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 8:58:06 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The productivity of U.S. nonfarm businesses and unit labor costs -- a key inflation gauge -- were revised just a bit higher in the fourth quarter than previously estimated, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

Productivity, which is defined as output per hour worked, rose at a 1.9% annual rate in the quarter, revised from 1.8% in the earlier estimate a month ago.

Unit labor costs rose 2.6%, revised up from 2.1%, the biggest increase since the first quarter. Read the full release. The estimates were largely in line with expectations by economists surveyed by MarketWatch, who looked for an unrevised 1.8% for productivity and 2.4% for unit labor costs.

In a separate report, ADP reported that private-sector payrolls fell by 23,000 in February.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 8:57:07 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The nation's private-sector employment rolls dropped by 23,000 net jobs in February, according to the ADP employment index released Wednesday.

Together with an estimated 25,000 or so government jobs that aren't included in the ADP index, the report suggests nonfarm payrolls likely grew a slim 2,000 last month. The government's monthly report on nonfarm payrolls will be released Friday morning.

The ADP survey came in weaker than expected. Analysts had been looking for job growth of about 20,000 in February, according to a survey of economists conducted by MarketWatch.

The ADP report is computed by Macroeconomic Advisers LLC using anonymous data provided by Automatic Data Processing Inc. , a leading payrolls processor.

Economists have become somewhat skeptical of the forecasting ability of the ADP index in recent months.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2008 8:55:08 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, convening in Vienna as oil prices stubbornly hold above $100 a barrel, decided Wednesday to leave the group's production levels unchanged.

The 13-nation cartel said the market was well supplied, pinning the steep run-up in oil prices on the weak U.S. dollar and big bets on energy futures by investors fleeing poor returns in the world's equities and bonds markets.

"The market continues to be well-supplied with crude oil. Commercial oil stocks -- crude and products -- are in line with the seasonal trend and are expected to remain within their five-year average during the traditionally lower-demand season," said Chakib Khelil, president of OPEC and minister of energy and mines in Algeria.

Crude prices were "detached" from the fundamentals of supply and demand, he said, calling it a "disturbing" development.

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