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Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2008 12:19:50 AM

GG with a now "drag it up," but leave the Bailey Wave on it Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2008 12:09:51 AM

Notice where I profiled the GG April $37.50 put. The carnage that has taken place since. Especially for bears in the commodity.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2008 12:07:33 AM

Notice where current conventional 50% is on GG.

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2008 12:05:17 AM

Notice how GG is "coiling" ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2008 12:02:32 AM

DXY same chart we've been monitoring. Have added some additional QUARTERLY Pivot observations. Measured recent two (2) declines. Test of QS2 looks eminent and SIMILAR to prior two quarters. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2008 12:02:27 AM

Alert! DXY's last two (2) declines after breaking a 52-week low have been 3.01% and 3.62%. From recent 11/26/07 low close of 74.85, a decline to overlapping QS2/MS1 would be 3.00%. Should that give way, MS2 would be 4.74%.

May take notes here regarding today's IMF comments (3/6/07 11:27:02 MM)

Jeff Bailey : 3/7/2008 12:02:02 AM

Alert! DXY found notable support July'07 to early Sep'07 at Q S2. Gave way on 09/07 to trade MS2 by 9/20/07.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 11:26:52 PM

Alert! DXY's Nov'07 inflection low came at a QS2/MS2 overlap.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 11:04:29 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) at this Link

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 10:56:42 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

The market looks like it's in trouble. It's the proverbial cliff play to consider a long play after a day like Thursday but that's what I considered and suggested (for a small call options position and knowing it's a risky play in front of the jobs number). The descending wedge pattern that I started showing Thursday afternoon on the DOW 10-min chart may have finished with the classic throw-under at the end of the day: Link

If the bullish descending wedge is the correct pattern then we should expect an immediate rally out of the gates Friday morning (suggesting we could see a gap up after the morning's job report). Assuming we see a rally I will then be watching for signs for whether it's going to be just a bounce to correct the decline from Wednesday or a rally that could carry up to 12400, which is shown on the 60-min chart: Link

However, if the market opens down Friday morning it will be difficult to determine where it might find support. I would rather be on the short side if the market experiences further selling Friday morning and will be looking at bounces as shorting opportunities. We'll know at the bell.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 10:51:04 PM

BIX.X ... MONTHLY Pivot Levels (correction) ... as you know, QCharts has been having major problems with their data feeds. They look to have made corrections to the BIX.X Feb high/low. MONTHLY Pivot levels should be ... 213.82, 231.05, Piv= 264.13, 281.36, 314.44.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 10:26:58 PM

Then review the DXY chart I've shown you with its "Bailey Wave"

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 10:26:26 PM

Look for major inflection low in the S&P Banks (BIX.X) at ~193.

Take a conventional retracement from the Feb'07 all-time high to the recent (and today's) lows. Then edit your retracement preference for a -19.1% to give you a resulting 192.8. But note how the market has traded the BIX all the way down.

Then, take a "Bailey Wave" from 10/05/07 high, drag wave down to 01/09/07 low, then drag wave up to 2/01/08. Note how market has traded this wave.

More importantly, not where BIX.X quarterly S2 is. Not it is the ONLY Quarterly S2 (outside of the DXY) and VIX.X to NOT see trade yet this quarter.

Destiny for BIX.X and DXY?

OI Technical Staff : 3/6/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 9:44:52 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 4:54:56 PM

Arch Coal (ACI) $49.70 -4.69% ...

Consol Energy (CNX) $77.45 -0.19% ...

Massey Energy (MEE) $38.90 -2.82% ... Peabody Energy (BTU) $55.76 -1.58% ... James River (JRCC) $19.67 +2.12% ...

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 4:50:55 PM

Economic Reports out tomorrow are: 8:30a.m. Feb Unemployment Rate. Expected: 5.0%. Previous: 4.9%.

3:00p.m. Jan Consumer Credit. Expected: +$5.0B. Previous: +$4.5B.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 4:48:50 PM

Kansas Senate Passes Bill To Allow 2 Coal-Fired Power Plants

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 4:31:24 PM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $53.60 (unch) ... $47.50 extended.

Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was $0.57/share on Revenue of $48.05M

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 4:28:26 PM

Swing trade covered long alert! ... place an order to buy 100 shares of Dynamic Materials (BOOM) in tonight's extended session for $45.15.

If filled, would be covered by the QCB-OJ

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 4:11:27 PM

Of all the patterns tonight, the RUT gives me the strongest impression that the move down from yesterday is an impulsive move and that negates the possibility for another rally leg above yesterday's high. Its pattern looks like maybe a minor new low tomorrow morning and then a bounce to correct the decline from yesterday, which will then be an opportunity to get short again.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 4:07:02 PM

With the possibility that the move down from yesterday's high was an impulsive move down, a bounce tomorrow would only be a correction of it. That says we could see a relief rally tomorrow from a jobs report that is more a relief than anything else (but no surprise rate cut). But obviously we first need a bounce and then evaluate what kind of bounce it is.

Should the market drop any further than today's close then all bullish bets are off the table and I'll be looking at every little bounce as another shorting opportunity.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 4:03:53 PM

National Semiconductor (NSM) $16.34 -3.02% ... pops to $17.00 on headline numbers.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 4:02:16 PM

Tab, that would at least be in keeping with Bernanke's modus operandi--pre-market rate cut, flame the shorts, create a huge gap up, flame the shorts, big rally, flame the shorts...you get the picture.

Tab Gilles : 3/6/2008 3:59:39 PM

Keene, how would an intra-meeting rate cut play into the Jobs Report? If the report is bad tomorrow then Bernanke should cut before the open?

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 3:58:06 PM

Here's where I show the SPX ending the day, unless it moves big in the last few moments: Link It's ready to bounce from this support or fall beneath it tomorrow morning. Which will it be? Do you want to risk too much overnight to find out? Be careful here.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 3:57:07 PM

If Bernanke wants to nail the shorts, again, he's got a perfect setup for it here.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 3:56:01 PM

It's looking ugly into the close. Looks like a lot of traders just don't want to be long the market heading into tomorrow morning.

Tab Gilles : 3/6/2008 3:54:42 PM

Supports & PnF charts

$NDX Link Link

$SPX Link Link

$RUT Link Link

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 3:54:36 PM

This is not pretty. Link

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 3:44:28 PM

Yesterday I would have bet my bottom $ on the SPX ralling at least to 1380. It had tested 1320 with a nice bullish doji and started to move up. Then late in the day yesterday the bears took over (came out of the crevices, cracks and corners) and brought the market back to its knees. I still thought the bulls were strong enough to get back up but today I'm afraid it is becoming very obvious they will not do that. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 3:41:04 PM

Bigger 15-minute candles, alternating red and green, point to emotion-based trading here at the end of the day.

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 3:40:14 PM

Hopefully you have stayed short all day today Link

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 3:39:17 PM

Just a warning: some believe that it's possible that the Bank of Japan might name its successor to the retiring Governor Fukui tonight, at the conclusion of its two-day meeting. If that meeting is concluded with no rate hike and no hike in sight, and if Deputy Governor Muto, widely believed to be less hawkish than some others, is named, the yen could weaken against the dollar, sending the USDJPY higher and maybe U.S. equities with them. The opposite could occur, too. What I'm saying is that you should be aware that it's not only the non-farm payrolls that could impact your trades overnight.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 3:37:20 PM

We might now get it but a final low into the close could be the long play setup. It will have sucked in a lot of shorts betting on the downside tomorrow. But a lot of shorts here could be fuel for Bernanke's rate cut bear fry. That's all speculation of course but that's what I do. DOW 12050 continues to look like a good target for support. 10-min chart update: Link

Note the possibility for only a bounce to retrace a portion of the decline from yesterday before turning back down. There is a way to count that move down as a leading diagonal 1st wave so if we get a bounce tomorrow I'll be watching for evidence as to whether it's just a correction or something more bullish.

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 3:23:19 PM

I agree with everything Keene said in his 3:19:25 post.

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 3:22:41 PM

No change in tenor in so far as the 15-minute 9-ema providing resistance on 15-minute closes for both the SPX and OEX. That's at 1312.95 for the SPX and 605.36 for the OEX. Watch for that to change as a sign that the shorts may be covering into the close ahead of tomorrow's non-farm payrolls number. I'm looking at daily and weekly charts in preparation for tonight's Wrap and many of them are showing the indices at significant potential support. Begin deciding, if you haven't already, if you want to hold overnight or at least lighten up positions.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 3:19:25 PM

If there's disappointing news tomorrow morning (or no surprise rate cut with the disappointing news) this market could drop like a stone and shorts will be amply rewarded. But I consider the short side a very risky bet right now. Even if it flares up "only" 200 points on the DOW to correct the decline from yesterday's high, that would be a painful move to go against you. And if it doesn't stop there, double ouch.

Futures traders beware--I see a big move tomorrow and it's risky either way. Options traders at least know how much they're risking. Trade relatively light and only what you can afford to lose if you take a position this afternoon. Take some money off the table if you've ridden this down and give it to Momma for safe keeping. And if you are short now is the time to pull your stop down tight. This could take off to the upside at any time now.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 3:15:23 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 3:09:25 PM

No push up to the top of the smallest Keltner channels yet for the SPX and OEX. They're still getting squeezed between those 15-minute 9-ema's and Keltner support. That potential support extends down to 1309.63 for the SPX and 603.75 for the OEX. There's been no change in tenor yet, with the 15-minute 9-ema's continuing to be resistance on 15-minute closes, but bears haven't been able to break through the Keltner support either despite several hours now of testing it. It could go either way in this last hour as people position their portfolios ahead of tomorrow's important non-farm payrolls. Bears, guard your profits and begin making end-of-day decisions about whether you want to hold overnight, given that number tomorrow morning. Bulls, if you're thinking about stepping in, weight how much risk you're willing to take on this afternoon or carry overnight. Don't risk too much, so that you feel that you "have" to hold on if the indices roll south instead of bouncing.

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 2:55:18 PM

The top of the SPX's smallest channel is now at 1318.62 with further potential resistance on 15-minute closes at 1321.11. For the OEX, those numbers are 607.99 and 608.66. There's no proof these indices will get that far yet, but I wouldn't be surprised, given the flattening of their 15-minute 9-ema's, if they did. It would be only after such a test that we'd begin to get an idea of what happens next. Nothing yet, other than the flattening of the 9-ema, gives any more likelihood of the upside test over a renewed test of support, however.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 2:47:36 PM

Updating the SPX 60-min chart that I posted last night, I've removed the more bullish possibility for a rally up to 1433. I'm basing this on the RUT's break to a new low today, which may be premature for SPX but I like to show what I consider the most probable wave counts rather than every possible one).

A rally tomorrow should target the 1350 area for a test of its broken uptrend line from January. It could rally a little stronger than the DOW if shorts get squeezed in the banks. And if it doesn't rally out of this then get short and hang on for the ride. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 2:40:49 PM

Citigroup (C) $21.35 -3.56% ...

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 2:40:13 PM

No real change since my 2:31:18 post. For the OEX, the potential support extends down to 604 and the 15-minute 9-ema is just above at about 606.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 2:39:41 PM

Citigroup's Rhodes: Market Correction Far From Over
US Housing Crisis Far From Over

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 2:38:16 PM

The DOW's 60-min chart now reflects the two highest potential moves in my opinion. Either it will drop like a stone from here (pink) or it's setting up a strong rally tomorrow (dark red): Link

The Fib projection for two equal legs up off Tuesday's low lands it on top of the 50% retracement which crosses the broken uptrend line from January tomorrow. This line was tested yesterday morning. If the dark red wave count plays out it will be one of the better short play setups after the rally completes. In the meantime I'm still thinking bullish for tomorrow.

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 2:34:18 PM

The advance/decline line is still dropping.

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 2:31:18 PM

Potential SPX Keltner support at 1313.23 and 1310.13 on 15-minute closes is being tested again as the 15-minute 9-ema once again held on 15-minute closes. The SPX is begin squeezed between the two so the pattern (resistance at the 9-ema; support at the levels noted) has to change one way or the other.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 2:24:43 PM

One other pattern that is taking shape, which still has a bullish outcome, has been added to the DOW 10-min chart: Link . A bullish descending wedge, which calls for another leg down to finish it, could have the DOW hitting its 12049 target by the close.

The interesting thing about this pattern and how it might finish is that it calls for a spike up and strong rally (to completely retrace the wedge so back above Wednesday's high). This pattern, if it's the correct interpretation, says the market is going to be excited about something tomorrow morning. Maybe a couple of March call options before the close as a speculative bet if we see it play out this way.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 2:15:38 PM

Sector Winners ... Software +0.63%, Gold Bugs +0.01%, Treasuries

Sector Losers Home Construction -6.46%, Airlines -5.24%, Broker/Dealers -3.55%, Retail -3.34%, Regional Banks -3.11%

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 2:09:48 PM

The RUT remains the weakest of them all. It didn't get much of a bounce off Tuesday's low (didn't even retrace 38%) and now it has broken Tuesday's low. A 127% projection of the Tuesday/Wednesday rally is down at 666.36 and that's about as low as I'd like to see it go and still maintain the possibility for another rally leg. The low that was just put in is 668 so there's not a lot of wiggle room here.

If we do get another rally leg back up from here I will at least have a better idea that it will be just one more leg up (could get back up to 695 though) before setting up a very good short play. The new low negates the more bullish potential for a rally into the latter part of March, as shown in Wednesday's newsletter ( Link ). Here's the updated chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 1:59:56 PM

The SPX's and OEX's Keltner support did hold on 15-minute closes. Now they challenge their 15-minute 9-ema's. It should be about time for both the SPX and OEX to cross their smallest channels, with those upper channel boundaries now at 1319.93 for the SPX and 608.45 for the OEX, but so far, the 9-ema's are holding as resistance. This is a particularly dangerous time for bulls and bears alike.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 1:55:40 PM

VIX has bounced back up to the top of a flag pattern of its own, as shown on the daily chart: Link . If it turns back down here it would indicate an equity rally in progress so watch for confirmation. Conversely, a rally above Monday's high would likely be confirming a breakdown in equities.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 1:48:50 PM

EUR/USD 1.5369

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 1:47:13 PM

SLV $200.17

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 1:46:15 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in shares of CDE.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 1:45:39 PM

Swing trade long alert! ... for 1/4 position in shares of Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) at the offer of $4.84. Stop goes $4.71. Target $5.30.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 1:40:08 PM

The bottom of a similar flag pattern for SPX that I showed on the DOW chart is approaching 1309 now. There's a difference between where SPX is in relation to its downside Fib projection at 1311 vs. the DOW's at 12049 (SPX is weaker today). But we're now approaching a potential support zone so stay aware that a buy program could kick in at any time. Where's Charlie Gasparino? Maybe he has another breaking news story for us.

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 1:37:24 PM

The advance/decline line continues lower. That -2800 potential target mentioned earlier begins to look like a possibility, with the advdec line at -2284 as I type. The VIX continues higher, but currently its potential upside target near 28.00 doesn't look quite as trustworthy although that could change quickly. The TRIN remains high.

And, as I began typing, the SPX punched down below a Keltner support line that has been holding all day, currently at 1313.66, and is now between potential support lines on 15-minute closes at 1310.82 and 1313.66. This support has not yet been breached on a 15-minute close, but unless the SPX soon zooms above the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1315.38 and stays above that, it now risks setting a new downside target at 1297.43. I wouldn't consider it having done so yet. Bears, you still need to guard your profits closely as we're in a prime stop-running time of day, and it's possible for big money to be pushing prices down a little, to see if buyers will step in before stepping in themselves in a bigger way. Bulls, you also know better than to hang on when you shouldn't do so. There's currently nothing bullish about the day, although that can change in a heartbeat.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 1:12:09 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 1:06:03 PM

There's some similarity between today's decline and the one on Tuesday (fractal pattern). Ideally one more new low could complete it and set up the rally leg. Obviously a drop out the bottom of the little flag pattern would be just the opposite and would call for getting short and holding on. DOW 10-min chart: Link

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 1:02:30 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Considering the impact of higher prices, a bigger debt burden and sagging home prices, Americans were poorer at the end of 2007 than they were the year before, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday.

The net worth of U.S. households fell by $533 billion, or a 3.6% annual rate, in the fourth quarter of 2007, the first time total wealth had fallen since late 2002, the Fed said.

For all of 2007, household net worth rose 3.4% to $57.7 trillion, the slowest growth in five years. After the effects of inflation are included, real net worth fell for the year.

The Fed's flow of funds report also confirmed a sharp slowdown in borrowing by households to the slowest growth in 10 years. Household borrowing rose at a 5.6% annual rate, less than half the debt growth seen during the credit boom years in 2003 through 2005

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 12:59:20 PM

So far, the SPX's and OEX's 15-minute 9-ema's are still providing resistance on 15-minute closes (with a minor exception on the OEX) while the underlying support is still holding, too. For the SPX, those values are at 1317.18 and 1311.26-1312.95, with resistance or support important on 15-minute closes. For the OEX, they're at 606.97 and 604.27-604.76.

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 12:40:18 PM

Internals remain in sync and very bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 12:39:28 PM

Merrill Modifies Notes To Retain Cheap Funding (update/details)

DJ- In a move that unnerved some investors, Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) increased the conversion rate on $2.2 billion of its liquid yield option notes (LYONS) by 17%, offered additional dates for holders to put the notes back to the company and extended the deadline for cash and other distributions.

The moves are aimed at persuading investors to keep the bonds in their portfolios rather than put them back to Merrill, analysts said. The LYONS have a yield of Libor minus 200, while low-grade securities are priced at a premium over the benchmark London Interbank Offered Rate.

Without the modification, investors holding the LYONS issue that mature in 2032 would have sold them back to Merrill next week on March 13, the next scheduled put date, because they are trading out of the money.

Shares of Merrill fell on the announcement, recently trading down $3.03, or 6.1%, to $46.29 on the New York Stock Exchange. They fell largely because LYONS investors typically short the stock to hedge their note positions but also because some investors worried that Merrill was trying to conserve cash it would have spent to redeem the issue.

"As part of our normal financing strategy we've chosen to amend the LYONS terms today, as we've done in the past, because we view them as an attractive source of financing in today's market," Merrill spokeswoman Jessica Oppenheim said. "We have ample liquidity of approximately $80 billion at year-end to fund any investors that may choose to still put these securities to us."

The changes make it more difficult for Merrill to call the notes away from investors - something it would do to retire the debt if yields rise. The firm extended call protection for six years at the same time that it added two put dates - Sept. 13, 2010 and March 13, 2014. By increasing the conversion ratio, Merrill also effectively gives holders more potential equity and thereby dilutes the value of the stock for existing shareholders.

Analysts said Merrill's mistake was in not explaining the reasons for its change, unnecessarily frightening investors who perceived the announcement as a way to deal with a liquidity problem.

"Cheap capital is hard to get, so they keep the puts from being executed by making the conversion rate more attractive," Brad Hintz, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, said in an email. "Merrill's action today reflects the very logical action of a management attempting to keep an attractive source of low-cost capital outstanding."

Merrill, he added, has more cash capital than other investment banks followed by Bernstein.

LYONs are a zero-coupon bond that is callable by the issuer, puttable by the investor and convertible at the request of their holders into shares of the issuing company.

Unlike other convertibles, the conversion ratio is not fixed, so that the effective conversion price increases each year as the bond appreciates toward its ultimate redemption price.

The product allows corporations to issue inexpensive debt while earning a tax break in the process. The prototype for the LYONs model was developed in the mid-1980s in part by former Merrill Lynch executive Thomas H. Patrick. Other Wall Street firms have their own brand of LYONs, which in total are said to account for about 11% of the convertible securities market.

The downside for buyers is that they are low on the totem pole if issuers get in trouble. Holders must await default at a put date, or at maturity, to gain equity if interest payments are missed. Merrill's stock also has been hurt recently by dilution related to billions of dollars of capital the company has been forced to raise to repair its subprime mortgage-stricken balance sheet. Merrill diluted shareholders by 12% through its agreement in December to issue $6.2 billion of stock to a Singapore government investment fund and a U.S. mutual fund company at a price of $48. It raised another $6.6 billion in January from Japanese, Korean and Kuwaiti investors through stock that converts at $52.40.

The capital raising followed about $25 billion of write-downs in the second half of 2007 on collateralized debt obligations and other mortgage-related securities that Merrill owns.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 12:28:27 PM

4-Chart Montage (DIA, SPY, IWM, QQQQ) on 10-minute intervals. BLUE retracement is conventional. Showing QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels Link

Support test "strongest" in DIA. Yesterday's highs look to have been marked by QQQQ at WKLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 12:27:06 PM

The bearish way to look at the NDX chart I just posted is to see a kiss goodbye at the broken uptrend line from Feb 7th. Even yesterday afternoon's and this morning's bounce high stopped at the trend line. From that perspective we have a bearish setup here.

But the price pattern in the pullback from yesterday's high hasn't convinced me yet that it's bearish. I'm thinking a pullback that will lead to another rally leg but clearly there's some significant bearish risk here.

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 12:22:42 PM

Slight bounce attempt. The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1317.85; the OEX's, 607.10. Both would have to sustain 15-minute closes (not just one slight one a few cents above it) above these levels to change the tenor in even the slightest way. Bears still need those profit-protecting plans in case that happens.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 12:22:05 PM

If NDX manages to find support around the 1729 area and launches another rally leg, two equal legs up from Tuesday's low would be near 1788 and back up to its downtrend line from Feb 1st. From there it could turn right back around and then head for new lows. Talk about a whippy market if this plays out (shown in pink): Link

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 12:21:14 PM

The SPX and OEX have approached their target levels (12:05:32 post), levels where significant short-term support might exist on 15-minute closes. The advance/decline line so far continues to drop, but it's in a potential support zone, too. It needs to hold up if equity bulls are going to see a bounce. Meanwhile, the VIX is attempting to break out above a resistance zone that I mentioned earlier today. With the setup--VIX still climbing and advdec line still dropping--it's possible that the support won't prove as strong as it looks, but the battle isn't over yet and bears should have those profit-protecting plans in place. Be very careful here that you don't let profits slip away from you if a big bounce should begin.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 12:17:10 PM

US Household Net Worth Down 0.9% To $57.72 Tln In 4th Qtr
US Nonfinancial Debt Rose At 7.7% Annual Rate In 4Q

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 12:16:48 PM

For NDX, two equal legs down from yesterday's high is at 1728.44 and the 62% retracement of its rally off Tuesday's low is at 1730.14. This provides a Fib zone of potential support for today's pullback.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 12:14:33 PM

While looking for SPX 1311 to be potential support, the equivalent level for the DOW is at 12050.

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 12:05:32 PM

The SPX's and OEX's 15-minute 9-ema's have again held as resistance. The targets could well be hit, as noted earlier. Those are now at 1312.69 and 604.61. Potential support is also firming up at those targets, so watch for those levels to provide potentially strong support on 15-minute closes. If not, then there will be new downside targets. Do have profit-protecting plans in place for these tests, though, if in bearish positions. Do not let a profit turn to a loss.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 12:03:49 PM

GLD -1.58% ...

SLV -3.56% ...

USO -1.09% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 12:02:55 PM

US Dollar Index (DXY) 73.005 -0.64% (30-minute delayed) ... undercutting WEEKLY S2.

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 11:57:48 AM

The VIX has now risen into a test of potential Keltner resistance at about 26.41 and 26.65 on 15-minute closes. The VIX doesn't tend to follow these Keltner channel lines as closely as the equity indices do, but they still provide a good guideline. Yesterday's VIX bounce (and equity decline) began when a Keltner target was hit and a VIX bounce began. If the VIX should sustain 15-minute closes above about 26.65, then the potential for a VIX move up to 27.86 exists.

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 11:53:31 AM

As I've suggested at other times, if you're a person who likes to get out of credit spreads early--not all are, and that's okay--giving up some of your profit but locking in the rest, days like today are good days to look at exiting bear call credit spreads. I've been out of my MAR ones for a long while, but today I've been able to exit 25 APR SPX 1515/1525 credit spreads and, in another account, 5 of my 25 1505/1515 ones, locking in 60% of my original credit. On 3/04, as I think I've already mentioned, I exited 25 APR RUT 810/820's, keeping the same 60%. It's weeks before opex for April, of course, and I still have a chance, if we should get a big rally, to put on new bear call credit spreads. This method of doing things, as I've stated in the past, does cut down on my income. In this environment, though, I've felt safer eliminating risk whenever possible.

If you're in MAR bear call credit spreads, you might be able to exit and keep a much larger percentage of your collected profit. It's just a thought and it's not a tactic that's right for everyone, but others have asked that I talk about what I'm doing.

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 11:55:14 AM

This is one of those days where you have to take into consideration the trajectory of the AD volume. Fortunately though the VIX is supporting the bearishness and the AD ratio is not disputing it. This is about as bearish as it gets. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 11:46:22 AM

The advance/decline line has continued to drop, and it's now approaching potential historical support near -2000. It's at -1807 as I type. Watch for bounce potential any time now, but if it can't bounce or maintain a bounce once begun, there's potential for a bigger downside day with potential for a drop to -2800 or so.

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 11:43:51 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is at 1320.60; the OEX's, at about 608.30. These averages have served as resistance on 15-minute closes all day, but they're beginning to flatten a little, which slightly weakens their resistance. So far, though, they're still holding. Next support is near 1312.13-1313.18 on 15-minute close for the SPX and 604.38-604.94 for the OEX. Don't count on those targets/support levels being reached, as something just seems funky about today, but do have profit-protecting plans in place for a test of those zones, if they're tested.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 11:37:22 AM

If SPX can find support at or above 1311 and start another rally leg, there is still the chance we'll get another leg up in the rally off Tuesday's low. The upside Fib target becomes a little less clear but the potential levels would be the 50% and 62% retracements of the decline from Feb 27th, so back up to 1348-1357. Link

The a-b-c bounce off Tuesday's low could tolerate a minor new low, even as low as 1297, before turning the pattern definitely bearish. This is a very tricky pattern to decipher because of the multiple corrective moves. It remains one of the more difficult times to trade so stay on the cautious side.

What's interesting about this setup (for another rally leg) is that it calls for a euphoric response to tomorrow morning's economic reports (and/or a surprise rate cut?). Just the opposite could of course happen and since the bearish wave count is set up for several degrees of 3rd waves to the downside, a break below 1297 would confirm for me that we're going to see some hard and relentless selling for the next couple of weeks.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 11:27:02 AM

IMF: Euro Now On "Strong Side" Vs. Medium-Term Fundamentals
Dollar Closer To Fundamentals, Still On "Strong Side"
China Yuan Still Undervalued, Should Strengthen Faster
ECB's Steady Policy Appropriate; Should Remain Flexible
Oil Prices Should Moderate As Global Economy Slows

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 11:26:32 AM

US$ continues to fall as Crude and Gold rally. Link

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 11:24:53 AM

Crude is rallying to new all time highs and so far has hit a high of 105.97. My goodness.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 11:20:16 AM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 11:12:56 AM

The SPX's and OEX's 15-minute 9-ema's are so far holding as resistance. The SPX has potential Keltner support at 1316.24 on 15-minute closes, but it's sliding lower. Next support is currently at 1312.11, and it's certainly now a possibility that it will be tested. The OEX has slightly support at 606.20 on 15-minute closes, but it, too, is sliding lower. Next potential support is at 604.39, and it's certainly a possibility that it will be tested, too.

The decline has been choppy, presenting the possibility of a bounce occurring at any time, but so far, none has. Stay aware of the possibility and be particularly aware of that potential support.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 11:03:19 AM

SPY $132.51

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 11:03:05 AM

iShares S&P National Muni Bond (MUB) $99.33 +0.23% ... 38.2% conventional here.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 11:02:49 AM

At the same time it's looking like several commodities could be peaking we've got the US dollar tagging potential support at the bottom of its parallel down-channel at 73. The dollar could be getting ready for a bounce (which would depress commodity prices). Link

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 11:02:07 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1323.32; the OEX's, 609.39. The SPX and OEX were trading back and forth across these at will yesterday afternoon without the movements meaning much, but if a new downtrend is beginning, those should be resistance on 15-minute closes. I'm not at all sure that a new downtrend is forming, however.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 10:58:10 AM

As shown on the daily chart for the silver IShares (SLV), the uptrend lines have become steeper and steeper and the rally has clearly gone parabolic. Looking at the move up from August, the 2nd leg up has now achieved 162% of the 1st leg (206) so I'm watching for signs of topping here. These parabolic rises never end well but the hard part is figuring out where the blow off move will end. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 10:45:05 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1324.62; the OEX's, 609.92. The current Keltner setup on the advance/decline line and the VIX hint at more possible weakness, but that can be undone in a moment, as it has been at various times already this morning. The advance/decline line is attempting to rise, but it will not be rising into resistance. I'm not refusing to climb out on a limb, I'm saying there's no limb to climb out on, no guess to make right now, but there's currently just the slightest weighting toward more weakness.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 10:33:09 AM

EIA: Weekly Nat. Gas Storage Table Link ... Draw of 135 Bcf

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 10:28:19 AM

Annaly Cap. Mgmt (NLY) $15.93 -17.37% ... notably weak.

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 10:23:24 AM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- More foreclosure records were broken in the fourth quarter of 2007, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Thursday.

The rate of mortgages entering foreclosure was at it highest level in the history of the MBA's quarterly national delinquency survey and the percent of loans somewhere in the foreclosure process also hit its highest level. The delinquency rate of loans past due but not in foreclosure was at its highest since 1985.

"Declining home prices are clearly the driving factor behind foreclosures, but the reasons and magnitude of the declines differ from state to state," said Doug Duncan, chief economist of the MBA, in a news release.

"In states like Ohio and Michigan, declines in the demand for homes due to job losses and out-migration have left those looking to sell the homes with fewer potential buyers, particularly with the much tighter credit restrictions borrowers now face. In states like California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, overbuilding of new homes created a surplus that will take some time to work through."

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 10:21:08 AM

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 172.17 -2.76% ... giving up its January lows.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 10:21:06 AM

If the little bounce off this morning's low turns back down from here to a new daily low it should set up a larger bounce at a minimum and possibly a new rally leg. SPX 1311 and especially Tuesday's 1307 low are the important levels to keep an eye on.

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 10:20:36 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- In a sign that home sales may be stabilizing, an index of sales contracts on previously owned U.S. homes was flat in January, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday, though the level was down almost 20% from the prior year.

The index is considered a leading indicator of existing home sales.

By region, January's pending home sales index fell 4.1% in the Northeast and 6.1% in the South. The index rose 13.0% in the West and 0.6% in the Midwest.

In December, the pending home sales index fell 1.2% from the prior month, compared with the prior estimate of a 1.5% drop.

"This additional sign of a stabilizing market is encouraging, and our members are telling us there's been a pickup in shopping activity," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, in a statement. "Our hope is that the increased traffic of buyers looking at homes will translate soon into more contract offers." NAR sees existing-home sales remaining flat, close to an annual level of 4.9 million, in the first half of the year. The group expects total 2008 sales of 5.38 million.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 10:19:51 AM

Home Foreclosures Hit Record High ... AP Story Link

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 10:18:29 AM

Well I guess the new trading simulator for Tradestation will be rolled out in bits and pieces and I do not have access to it yet. So my promise that I would report on it will have to wait.

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 10:17:31 AM

So far, the Keltner support looks as if it will hold on 15-minute closes for both the SPX and the OEX, but it's a tentative hold and the support lines now cycle lower. In addition, the advance/decline line lost its Keltner support, so the picture is a little weaker there, too, although historical support near -2000 still exists. Both the SPX and OEX need a big bounce now and I'm not sure they'll get it.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 10:16:42 AM

BOE LEAVES BANK RATE UNCHANGED

DJ- The Bank of England leaves its key rate on hold at 5.25%, following a two-day monthly meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee. Decision was expected, with 22 of 23 economists surveyed tipping the central bank to hold.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 10:15:58 AM

EUROPEAN GROUPS SAY HIGH EURO HURTING TRADE

DJ- German industry members and Europe's biggest business lobby say that the surging euro, nearing $1.54, is causing them to lose orders to U.S. and Japanese competitors, as it undermines euro-zone exporters' competitiveness.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 10:15:02 AM

AGENCY MORTGAGE BONDS HIT AFTER CARLYLE MARGIN CALLS

DJ- A wave of selling of agency mortgage bonds amid margin calls pushes risk premiums up to their widest levels in more than two decades as the credit crisis ensnares another area that had been deemed "safe" just a few months ago.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 10:14:06 AM

THORNBURG DEFAULTS AFTER MARGIN CALL

DJ - Shares plunge 58% after the home-mortgage lender says its failure to meet a $28 million margin call caused a series of cross-defaults. Lender may exercise rights to liquidate collateral backing loans.

TMA $1.40 -58.23%

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 10:12:04 AM

US JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 24K IN WEEK

DJ- Initial claims for jobless benefits decrease by 24,000 to 351,000 in the week ended March 1, beating expectations for a decrease of 10,000 claims, however, claims for benefits lasting longer than one week rise to a fresh two-and-a-half-year high.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 10:07:52 AM

MERRILL LYNCH DROPS ON CONVERTIBLES

DJ- Shares slide 6% after brokerage increases the conversion rate on some of its option notes by 17%, adds to the dates holders may require the firm to buy back the notes and extends their deadline for cash and other distributions.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 10:07:04 AM

WAL-MART LEADS SURPRISINGLY STRONG RETAIL SALES

DJ- Retailers are posting February same-store sales above weak expectations, allowing at least a temporary sigh of relief on worries about slowing consumer spending. Wal-Mart posts a 2.6% increase in U.S. same-store sales for February excluding fuel sales, on strength in grocery sales, topping firm's projection last month of flat to 2% growth. It also raises its dividend. Target reports a 0.5% increase for February, slightly better than expectations.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 10:05:42 AM

This morning's pullback leaves yesterday afternoon's bounce as just a correction. There is the possibility that a further drop this morning will create a larger 3-wave move down from yesterday's high in which case Tuesday's low should hold. Two equal legs down from yesterday's high is at SPX 1311 (essentially a retest of Tuesday's low). Support there could launch the next rally leg. But if Tuesday's lows break...

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 10:04:42 AM

Canada: Ivey PMI At 62.0 In February

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 10:04:01 AM

VIX is now supporting the bears with new daily highs.

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 10:03:47 AM

Here's the Keltner support and historical support being tested for the SPX and OEX, with that extending down to about 1320 on the SPX and 607.87 on the OEX. The advdec line has lost its support for now. Without a quick bounce, the SPX and OEX are vulnerable to those Keltner levels I mentioned earlier, now at 1311-1312 for the SPX and 604-605 for the OEX.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 10:03:11 AM

Toll Bros. (TOL) $20.60 -3.10% ... slips back below its trying to round out 150-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 10:02:15 AM

NAR: US Pending Home Sales Index Unchanged In January

January Pending Home Sales -19.6% From Jan'07

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 9:57:40 AM

Be forewarned that we have January's Pending Home Sales at 10:00 am ET. In this climate, anything to do with home sales might be good for at least some volatility.

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 9:56:04 AM

For OEX traders, the OEX's next potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes is now at 608.59, but it's light support on a Keltner basis. There's light historical support nearby, too, which will join it, but that the OEX not only needs to hold that nearby zone as support but also probably to rise from it fairly quickly. Otherwise, it risks a drop to the next Keltner target at 604-605 and perhaps even to 600-601. I don't see a strong prediction as yet, as the outlook on the equities charts is different than the outlook on the advance/decline chart. Equities are slightly weighted toward more weakness while the advance/decline line's is slightly weighted toward a steadying, at least, if not a bounce.

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 9:51:59 AM

The advance/decline line is attempting to bounce from that support I detailed. It's at -1036 now with that support (potential, still) now at -1165 on 15-minute closes. As expected, although there's sometime a delay, the SPX is also attempting to steady and bounce. I honestly don't see a resolution as yet, with it being just as possible that the SPX could drop at least to 1320-1322 and maybe even to 1312-1313 as to climb to 1334-1335. The steadying of the advdec line just where it looked as if it might steady gives some hope to those who want markets to steady and rise, but it certainly gives no proof yet.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 9:51:40 AM

iShares Taiwan (EWT) $16.06 +0.81% ... retraces 61.8% of its Oct-Jan decline.

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 9:51:34 AM

VIx is not committing to either side yet.

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 9:51:06 AM

AD line is a bearish -1095

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 9:40:23 AM

The advdec line is now at potential Keltner support. It's pushed that support down a little with the advdec line now at -1216 and just below the current -1173 level of the potential support on 15-minute closes. The advdec line tends to overrun these potential support or resistance lines a bit, but traders should be aware that it's at a place (Keltner support) at which it usually at least attempts to steady, even if it eventually can't hold onto the support. So, watch carefully, as there's potential to steady here (therefore, steadying equities) or even bounce. That's not a given, of course.

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 9:34:56 AM

Keltner outlook on the advdec line. As I type, the advance/decline line is between potentially strong support at about -1150 and potentially strong resistance at about -450. It's headed down as I type and is currently at -958. I would watch for a potential steadying in equities or even for bounce potential as it approaches that -1150 zone.

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 9:33:04 AM

First potential support for the SPX exists down to 1329.06 on 15-minutes closes. Nearest potential resistance is 1334.44-1350.20 on 15-minute closes. The SPX is at 1330.35 as I type.

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 9:32:03 AM

Crude is in full rally mode as well. It hit 105.97 overnight. Geesh!!!! Link

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 9:30:52 AM

Here is your daily dose of Gold.

It is still in that upward channel and looks like it has no intention of taking any kind of needed break. I am looking for a spot where I can add to my long position. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 9:29:36 AM

I had to take off early yesterday afternoon, saying at the time I was leaving that the Keltner setup didn't really give a strong prediction of next movement. Neither did the SPX's current price. I had mentioned earlier that I wasn't too concerned about the action as long as the SPX held the 1320-1322 zone. This morning, it not only needs to hold that approximate zone as support, but it also needs to bounce rather quickly from it or the chart setup suggests that a dip down to 1312-1313 could be possible and a trip to 1304-1305 if that doesn't hold. I'll let you know if that setup changes, but that's where it is at the moment.

The daily chart just doesn't give any clues. We've been consolidating a few days. The consolidation turns what looked like a possible reversal signal into just plain old consolidation before the next who-knows-where move.

Complicating this, at least in my opinion, is the upheaval and uncertainty going on in Japan right now over the choice of the next governor of the Bank of Japan. Who will that be and how will policy decisions be impacted? Those decisions will certainly impact the strength of the yen against the dollar and, therefore, likely will impact our equity action.

Keene Little : 3/6/2008 9:25:47 AM

Equity futures dropped steadily from their highs before 11:00 PM last night. At this point it looks like the market will open inside the range between yesterday's pulllback and closing high. Therefore the direction of the market is still up in the air. I'm going to give it some time to show me what pattern could be playing out.

Linda Piazza : 3/6/2008 9:20:42 AM

Amid inflation concerns, both the ECB and the Bank of England have kept rates steady this morning. As might be expected, that's not doing much to help the U.S. dollar. The ECB's President Trichet is speaking this morning in the post-decision conference. Recently he's spoken in support of a strong dollar, but many currency watchers predict that as long as our Fed is easing and Trichet and party are standing strong against inflation, there's not a lot that anyone can do to prop up the dollar.

Make no mistake: currency actions do influence equity actions, at least during certain periods. Over the past several years, until a recent period of disorganization, our equity movements have pretty well tracked the movements of the USDJPY, the U.S. dollar against the yen. So, what's happening with that? We may have a bit of a quandary in making any predictions there. The Bank of Japan has begun a two-day meeting that is the last for Governor Toshihiko Fukui. His successor has not yet been determined. Neither, in my opinion, has the direction of the USDJPY as a result. However, it's been dropping overnight. It's at slight potential (recent) historical support now in the 103-103.30, but if this fails, it threatens to fall again into a retest of this week's early low of 102.59.

There's another concern. Recently, the Libor rate has been of concern again, sending signals that credit might be tightening again. Some had wanted the Bank of England to ease in an effort to bring down the Libor rate.

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 9:18:19 AM

Here is the daily chart from Jane's Perspective (which is totally different from other perspectives). This is not looking bullish even though support has held the fact that we have not seen any kind of convincing rally with legs is very worrisome to us bulls. Link

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 9:15:03 AM

Looks like my install went OK. I will not take the time now to investigate the simulator but get right to the charts.

Whenever the buyers come back to town they never seem to have a story that convinces the sellers to leave town and they remain hidden in the crevices, the cracks, the creases, ready and willing to pounce at first sign of weakness. And that is exactly what the sellers did overnight, pounced and overtook the buyers, once again. Link

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 9:04:58 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures were stronger Thursday, having hit a record high of $105.97 earlier in the session, extending their incredible surge that has been fuelled in part by rising demand for commodities.

Crude oil for April delivery rose 38 cents at $104.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the session, the contract hit a record $105.97 a barrel.

"It seems that commodity markets are in the firm grasp of buyers seeking an "asset-class" with a positive return, and since our markets seem to fit the bill in this regard, declines are being used as buying opportunities," said Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global, in a note.

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 9:02:14 AM

I am installing a new version of Tradestation so it may be a while before I have charts. This version FINALLY has a simulator, something all TS users have been waiting for for ages. Later in the day I will go over why I like Tradestation, talk about their Ninja Trader like Matrix and report on the simulator.

Jane Fox : 3/6/2008 8:56:57 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Initial filings for state unemployment benefits fell to their lowest level since late January in the latest week, the Labor Department reported Thursday, even as continuing claims rose to their highest level in more than two years. Initial claims for the week ending March 1 fell by 24,000 to 351,000, hitting their lowest mark since Jan. 19. Continuing claims climbed by 29,000 to 2.83 million during the week ending Feb. 23. That was the highest since Sept. 24, 2005.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 4:32:28 AM

Yesterday's bullish profile of DIA calls and today's rather quick exit is/was two part.

One is that I'm still having some frustrating computer problems that I can't seem to resolve.

The other, and more important is that the only dynamic I have any bullish confidence in is for selling in Treasuries (to free up cash to rotate to equities) with a "stronger" or stable dollar.

From the internals snapshot, you'll notice the STEEPENING of the yield curve. While a STEEPENING curve often signals expansion, what bothers me is the CONTINUED decline in the very short-term 13-week yield.

What this suggests to me is that while indeed money is coming out of intermediate-to-longer-dated maturities, it is plowing itself into the short term.

Certainly a sharp decline in shorter-dated (13-weeks = 1 quarter) could be painful to the buyer of the paper, but in 13-weeks, the investor will still get back par plus the 1.48% annualized.

The continued WEAKNESS in the dollar appears to still be drawing the "inflation" analogy, where oil, metals find few sellers.

Today's intra-day action for the dollar would really suggest to me that the tight inventory and higher oil really had dollar buyers stepping away.

Even though I thought we could see some bullish benefit for equities on the benchmark 10-year YIELD rose (freeing up of capital), the weakness in the dollar draws a more cautious approach in my trading at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 4:10:34 AM

YM down 35 points, or -0.28% at 12,241

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 4:09:30 AM

CL off $0.24, or -0.22% at $104.28.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 4:08:58 AM

YI is up $0.30, or +1.46% at $20.99.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 4:08:29 AM

YG is up $4.90, or +0.49% at $993.10.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 4:07:56 AM

US Dollar Index (DXY) 73.208 -0.61% (30-minute delayed) ... getting hit some more this evening/morning.

Looked to be stabilizing Wednesday until the oil inventory report was released.

Jeff Bailey : 3/6/2008 3:55:37 AM

Closing Internals found at this Link

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