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Keene Little : 3/19/2008 11:18:31 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

SPX dropped back below its broken downtrend line from the end of February but is close to Tuesday's post-FOMC low which could act as support (1296). The price pattern supports the expectation for a bounce Thursday morning but because of the impulsive decline on Wednesday that bounce should lead to another leg down. So breaking below 1296 is something I expect to see. 60-min chart: Link

There is a more bearish possibility with Wednesday's price pattern that calls for a gap down on Thursday and hard selling from there so any gap down should be considered very bearish (don't be looking to buy the dip). Otherwise expect a bounce shortly after the market opens and then another leg down. After the 2nd leg down watch for potential support where the decline will have two equal legs down (for a potentially stronger rally as depicted in dark green).

That more bearish possibility (dark red) is shown on the daily chart with a sharp drop down to about 1150 before getting much of a bounce: Link . The light green wave count shows the possibility for a much choppier decline to about 1225 by the end of the month/early April.

OI Technical Staff : 3/19/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 5:39:48 PM

Don't be overly LONG unleaded into its expiration!!!!

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 5:35:31 PM

April Crude (cl08j) ... expiration settlement $104.48. Down $4.94, or -4.51%.

May Crude (cl08k) settled down $5.96, or -5.49% at $102.54.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 5:35:25 PM

Quote of the Day (commodity trader): "I sleep like a baby. I wake up every hour and cry." - Dennis Gartman

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 5:03:22 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 4:23:52 PM

DJ- CRB Spot Index Close 388.30 dn 16.47, high 405.99 low 388.30

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 4:22:56 PM

Chile Congress Approves Diesel Fuel Tax Credit Bill

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 4:19:25 PM

TSO $30.18 +2.09%
PBR $97.45 -8.63% (PBJ-OS) are $0.70 x $0.80. Expiration is Friday!
TOL $21.50 +1.41%
GG $38.71 -6.29%
MO $70.78 -1.08%
MBI $12.01 -2.43%
WHR $85.45 -0.02%
USO $82.29 -4.09%
SWC $16.19 -10.25%

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 4:12:08 PM

GOOG $432.00 -1.63% ... QCharts' WKLY Pivot $433.48. Conventional -38.2% at $431.86.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 4:11:22 PM

Without listening to bubble vision I can only imagine what the pundits are saying today. Let's see, the bulls are saying this was a needed correction day after a rally that went too far too fast but the worst of the credit problems are behind us and the Fed will continue to ensure the banks are able to fund growth. It's time to buy the dips.

The bears are saying the strong short-covering rally had no real buying behind it (again) and the fundamentals (credit collapse) haven't changed one iota just because the Fed is trying to plug the leaks (which are appearing faster than they can plug). It remains a short-the-rallies environment.

For now I continue to side with the bears (I know, that's shocking news to most of you--wink) but a new market low into the end of the month will have me looking for a bottom and a long play into May. That will of course depend on how fast we drop (a very fast drop would support the mega-bearish wave count in which case there's no way I'll step in front of it).

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 4:10:39 PM

DXY $72.197 +0.87% ... 30-minute delayed ... battle between buyers and sellers at WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 4:09:46 PM

SPY $130.24 -2.54% ... 7 minute until close. Battles to hold WKLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 4:06:34 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Mar 15 Week. Expected: +3K. Previous: Unch.

10:00a.m. Feb Conference Board Leading Indicators. Expected: -0.2%. Previous: -0.1%.

10:00a.m. Mar Philadelphia Fed Business Index. Expected: -19.5. Previous: -24.0.

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 4:03:40 PM

Well the MACD was not telling me the truth and the markets are now making new daily lows.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 4:01:55 PM

SPX is back down to its broken downtrend line from the end of February. It could be a good for the bounce tomorrow but if it gaps down tomorrow morning then we could be in a 3rd of a 3rd wave down and it will be strong.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 3:59:38 PM

Filled alert! with GOOG $432.78

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 3:58:29 PM

Yesterday's strong rally closed at its high and today's strong decline looks like it's going to close at its low. Think there's a slight battle of wills here? Capitulation of the shorts is followed the next day by capitulation of the longs, rinse and repeat. The lack of follow through is indicative of days of capitulation by one side but no real buying or selling by either side yet.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 3:57:57 PM

Swing trade SPECULATIVE CALL option alert! ... for three (3) of the Google GOOG Mar $450 Calls (GOP-CJ) at a LIMIT price of $0.20.

DAY order only.

Target(s) are $0.80 for two (2) and $3.00 for one (1).

GOOG $433.20 -1.37% ...

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 3:44:28 PM

Today's daily candle is not a bullish one, of course, but it looks as if the SPX could end the day very near the 50% retracement of yesterday's candle, with that at about 1303.95. The bearishness would be increased if the SPX ends the day far below that 50% mark but if it ends it at or above it, there's a bit more question. Tall candles sometimes provide support at their 50% levels. You take your pick for next direction and I could make a clear case for or against it, based on either the 15-minute or the daily candle (daily 10-sma support held, too).

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 3:44:01 PM

For the 5-wave move down, the 5th wave equals the 1st wave at DOW 12144/SPX 1303.42 so support for a bounce could be very close now (especially with the DOW tagging its projection).

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 3:42:48 PM

With the new daily lows it now looks like a 5-wave move down today. That suggests a bounce tomorrow morning and then at least another leg down. If you're feeling bullish about the market, that 2nd leg down will be a very good opportunity to test the long side. If you're feeling bearish about the market, tomorrow's bounce will be a very good opportunity to test the short side. See, it's a fair market--something for everyone.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 3:40:43 PM

Who knows what happens the next few moments due to the opex-related action, but here's the Keltner setup for the SPX: It's approaching lower support near 1304.20, having broken slightly below the support that held it up earlier. This is all a converging band of support, so this has the potential to hold the SPX up, too, and prompt another bounce, where it would again encounter resistance, now near 1312.90-1315.80.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 3:31:34 PM

New lows would obviously negate the potential for the little 5-wave bounce to turn into another leg higher for the bounce. As long as this afternoon's low holds we should get another leg up. And then watch for two equal legs in the bounce for resistance and another opportunity to short it for a 5th wave down for today's decline--not likely until tomorrow morning. NQ just made a minor new low as I type so holding the lows is questionable here.

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 3:31:06 PM

Each market is now testing its daily lows but their respective MACDs are not telling me the bottom is in for the day. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 3:29:12 PM

Speaking of weird settlement values, please factor in some of the weird settlement values we've seen in SPX and RUT options into your decision about whether to hold over your expiring March options or whether to close them. Remember recent times when we've woken up to have futures well above or well below the close and just imagine what settlement figures would have been like for those days. I don't know what's going to happen overnight that might change futures drastically--Japan's market is closed tonight--but nothing is impossible in this market. The OEX options do trade tomorrow.

Tab Gilles : 3/19/2008 3:28:01 PM

Weekly EIA Report Link

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 3:26:12 PM

The OEX's bounce did occur, and from above, not on, support, as I suggested it might, and now the expected stalling at the 15-minute 9-ema occurs, too. Will that hold into the close? I don't know because soon people are going to be scrambling to close March options that they don't want to carry overnight and risk one of those weird settlement values. The Keltner setup, however, shows the potential for chop into the close, with that chop roughly between 606.60 potential support and 611.90 resistance or perhaps resistance up to 615.64.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 3:22:24 PM

The expected SPX bounce occurred, and now we have the potential stalling near the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1315.53. What next? The Keltner setup suggests a period of chopping around is next, unfortunately. Support down to about 1304.69 on 15-minute closes is about as strong, perhaps slightly stronger than, the resistance up to 1315.53 or maybe 1322.40. Barring a strong surge, which most certainly could occur this time of day on the last day the March SPX options trade, I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPX chop around near here into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 3:21:33 PM

BIIIIIIIIG short-term test for the greenback.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 3:21:10 PM

US Dollar Index (DXY) alert! 72.23 +0.91% (30-minute delayed) ... WKLY Pivot and "now conventional" 19.1%

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 3:20:01 PM

With gold's sharp pullback the past two days it's a good time to update its daily chart. Gold dropped $90 from the Sunday night high of 1033.90. The gold fund, GLD, dropped from its opening high on Monday of $101.04 to a low of 92.57 today. It could head lower still but it's at potential support here: Link

GLD is attempting to find support at the bottom of a parallel up-channel for price action since December, which is also right at the top of a longer term parallel up-channel from 2005. Whether it holds here, or finds it to be resistance on a bounce back after breaking support, will go a long way towards telling us whether or not gold has found a signficant high (along with the commodity index).

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 3:19:53 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 3:15:44 PM

We've got an impulsive advance off the low (little 5-wave move) so if we get a pullback now, it should lead to another leg up in the bounce. If the bounce overlaps the this morning's pullback low (DOW 12327/SPX 1326) it will increase the likelihood that today's pullback is just a 3-wave correction to yesterday's rally.

A bigger bounce like that could be a signal that we're either going to head for new highs or we're going to chop lower instead of dropping sharply lower. It would mean a potentially difficult time for the bears at best. But I don't see a green light yet for the bulls so both sides need to continue trading very short term here.

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 3:02:57 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Visa Inc. surged more than 35% in their market debut Wednesday, opening at $59.50 as investor demand for the largest initial public offering in U.S. history drew spirited bidding.

It took about 45 minutes to align buyers and sellers before the share finally opened Wednesday, as demand surged amid renewed interest this week in financial shares.

"We operate in a large global market undergoing a significant shift from cash and check to electronic payments. We believe Visa is well positioned to build upon our past success and take advantage of this migration to electronic payments," Joseph Saunders, Chairman and CEO of Visa said in a prepared statement Wednesday.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 2:59:20 PM

"search" for a long.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 2:58:19 PM

When you look at your 5-minute interval charts of the majors INDU, SPX, OEX, NDX and RUT.X, do it with 150-pd and 200-pd SMA turned on. Understand how these indexes are comprised.

1 oil-related in NDX/QQQQ. No gold/silver. This may be "the place" for bulls to focus.

Note your bullish % too.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 2:55:53 PM

With a just-reached low of 1306.37, the SPX hit its target squarely. Now what? If in bearish positions, I would be watchful for bounce potential now, but, if so, there's potential resistance at 1315.44-1316 on 15-minute closes. If the SPX sinks instead, it has potential support down to 1304.05 on 15-minute closes. If that's broken and not quickly reversed, it could get ugly, but the Keltner setup suggests that's the least likely event as of this moment.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 2:55:08 PM

Notice on the SMH chart how price consolidated sideways since its January low over to the top of the parallel down-channel (parallel line, blue, attached to the wave-2 high). This is typically an excellent short play setup.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 2:51:56 PM

I've shown some downside projections on the recent DOW and SPX daily charts and while waiting to see what kind of pullback we're going to get here (as far as providing some clues as to whether or not we should expect a continuation lower or not), the semiconductors could tip their hand first.

The sideways triangle pattern, what I'm counting as a 4th wave correction in its decline from July 2007, looks like it might have finished and that suggests the 5th wave down to a new low (target about $23) could get started. A break below 27.83 would be a bearish heads up for SMH: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 2:49:48 PM

Might get some fireworks when treasuries close.

April oil settling ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 2:47:26 PM

GBP/USD 1.9821 -1.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 2:47:02 PM

USD/JPY 99.17 -0.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 2:46:42 PM

EUR/USD 1.5606 -0.12%

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 2:32:17 PM

EIA's: This Week In Petroleum Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 2:31:09 PM

Will have to check, but might need to track 15-500 ppm sulfer.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 2:26:29 PM

I didn't know that.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 2:25:53 PM

Record End-Season Price Caps Costliest US Heating Oil Season

DJ- Residential heating oil prices in the Northeast U.S. - the world's largest heating oil market - averaged a record $3.876 a gallon in the latest week, a jump of 54.5% from a year ago.

The Energy Information Administration said the record price in the official last week of winter caps what's likely to be the costliest heating season on record.

Sustained crude oil prices at record highs above $100 a barrel and lingering winter weather pushed prices up. Prices of diesel fuel, the ultra-low sulfur cousin of heating oil, is selling at a record average or more than $4 a gallon nationwide.

"At the start of the 2007-08 heating season, total distillate fuel inventories stood at the upper limit of the average range, implying an adequate supply of heating fuels leading into winter," EIA said in its This Week In Petroleum report.

But inventories of high-sulfur fuel, used as heating oil, were relatively low even from the outset of winter, EIA said due to a change in regulations requiring railroads and other high-sulfur distillate consumers to use low-sulfur fuel.

Nationwide, heating oil prices set a record high of $3.852 a gallon, up 17.5 cents in the latest week and a jump of $1.357 a gallon from the last week of the season a year ago.

"With the spring equinox arriving (Thursday), heating fuels consumers may finally look forward to better weather before long, and along with it, some respite from record prices," EIA said. "However, heating needs particularly in the Northeast, can persist through April, keeping pressure on markets for a bit longer."

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 2:24:33 PM

The OEX's 15-minute 9-ema is 613.69 with other potential resistance on 15-minute closes at 611.70. That should probably hold on 15-minute closes if tested in the next few minutes to preserve the potential for the OEX to drop toward 606-607. As mentioned earlier, it's probably more likely for the SPX to touch or closely approach potential support than it is for the OEX to do so. The OEX is stronger on a Keltner basis. If either of them sustains values above that resistance mentioned in this post or the 2:19:51 one about the SPX, the targets are erased. As with the SPX, I would warn bears that the potential support for the OEX near 606-607 looks relatively firm, so have profit-protecting plans in place if it's tested.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 2:22:06 PM

02:10:02 Money Flow at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 2:19:51 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1319.34 with the 45-ema below that at 1315.05. These could form resistance on 15-minute closes, and probably should if the SPX is going to touch that 1305-1306 level. That 1305-1306 level (actually layering down to 1304.35 currently) could be strong short-term support, however, so bears should watch even more closely for bounce potential once it's tested.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 2:12:56 PM

Both the DOW and SPX have now reached their potential Fib support zones. The bulls will want to see a rally back up towards the highs and the bears will want to see a sideways/up consolidation at the most (or of course straight down from here). A consolidation would fit as a 4th wave correction in today's decline and that would be followed by a 5th wave down and indicate there will be lower lows after an upward correction of the 5-wave decline. Based on the next bounce, assuming one is coming, I should get a better sense of what we can expect for tomorrow.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 1:57:51 PM

On a Keltner basis, the SPX now looks vulnerable to 1305-1306 and maybe even 1301.50, but of course, it's testing the congestion zone pre-FOMC decision yesterday and that could hold as support, too. The OEX, however, is holding up fairly well near the 15-minute 45-ema at 611.80.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 1:45:35 PM

Please take any potential targets with a grain of salt today due to the often-mentioned opex activities and the other points mentioned, such as the uncertainty about the USDJPY due to upheaval in Japan, etc.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 1:44:16 PM

The OEX is also approaching potential support, at about 611.75 for the OEX. On a short-term Keltner basis, the OEX has been a little stronger than the SPX over the last week. It is holding up a little better above these potential targets but then it succumbs, too. Bears should watch for bounce potential, with the 15-minute 9-ema now presumed to be resistance. That's now at 616. If the OEX loses that 611.75 level as support on 15-minute closes, it's vulnerable to 605-606.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 1:44:14 PM

The DOW has dropped through support at yesterday's pre-FOMC high (12280) so the next potential Fib support zone is 12198-12214 where today's 2nd leg down will equal 162% of the 1st leg down and a 38% retracement of the rally off Monday's low. For SPX I get an equivalent zone of 1309-1312. It has not yet tagged its pre-FOMC high just under 1316 so is showing more relative strength.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 1:40:26 PM

The SPX approaches the 1316 level that I mentioned in my 1:03:25 post. This is also potential support on 15-minute closes, so bears should be watchful for a potential steadying. If this support is lost on 15-minute closes, the SPX is then vulnerable to about 1305-1306.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 1:34:47 PM

That quick little spike down to new daily lows for the DOW and SPX resulted from a break of the uptrend lines from Monday. A bounce back up to the broken trend line could be an opportunity for a bearish kiss goodbye.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 1:31:48 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 1:30:23 PM

New daily lows but bullish divergences on the short term charts. Hard to trust the downside right here, especially with support so close at this point.

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 1:23:54 PM

Linda, I have been trading for many many years and have made many more mistakes. I love trading with all my heart and would go to almost any extent to make it work. Through that process of making it work, I have learned a lot and feel so privileged that I can share my experiences with other traders.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 1:23:30 PM

Right after I posted MER being down -8% it spiked up and is now climbing. Shorts be careful here.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 1:19:53 PM

In case the DOW and SPX find support at yesterday's highs just before the FOMC announcement (not much lower now), I'm lowering my stop now to just above the last bounce before 1:00 PM. I'd rather take money off the table and miss a continued move down than give it back at this point. If it spikes up and then heads for new lows again I'll probably jump on the breakdown. Take profits often, that's the mantra.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 1:16:46 PM

And Mother is not happy today--MER is down 8% today.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 1:16:15 PM

Mother MER is making new daily lows.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 1:09:36 PM

The a-d lines (issues and volume) have turned negative on the day so the sellers are becoming stronger. But that doesn't preclude a bounce right back up again (this is opex week after all, a shortened one at that).

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 1:07:38 PM

You know, even if Jane did nothing else on the MM, and of course she does, I think her discussions about her efforts to fine tune her trading plan each year are valuable. Jeff also offers many discussions on his way of managing trades.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 1:04:27 PM

The OEX has also been finding resistance on 15-minute closes at its 9-ema across several 15-minute periods. It's vulnerable to a test of 611.60. The 15-minute 9-ema is now 617.24 and might continue to be resistance on 15-minute closes.

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 1:05:35 PM

The last part is psychology and the hardest part of trading however, if you have the other two parts in place the psychology is a whole lot easier. You also need to read Mark Douglas's book, "Trading in the Zone" a zillion times. I have almost read it that many. :)

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 1:03:25 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now holding as resistance on 15-minute closes across several 15-minute periods. The action hasn't yet turned the 9-ema lower, so whether the SPX will continue to trend lower is somewhat more questionable than it would be otherwise. However, it's now vulnerable to about 1316.

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 1:02:43 PM

The next part is money management and I talked about that yesterday..

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 1:05:09 PM

You need a trading strategy that you have backtested, tested in realtime and then tested with real money and you have found profitable. One that you have faith in to get you through the dreaded drawdowns when (notice I did not say "if") they happen. If you don't have a strategy you can hang your hat on you will not make it through the drawdowns. You have to have faith that it will come back and the only way I know you can test that is living through it - unfortunately.

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 12:52:56 PM

I talked about my trading plan yesterday and how I handle Money management. I sent an email to Linda and told her that I always thought I had my money management in place because I put stops on my trades but that was not enough. She responded that, ?Yes trade management was different from money management.? Indeed what I was doing was trade management which does not constitute money management.

Of course money management is very important but it is only part of your trading plan. I look at daytrading or for that matter all trading, as a three legged stool; money management, trading strategy and psychology. I put 10% to the strategy, 20% to money management and 70% to psychology.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 12:49:34 PM

Another potential support level is the high just before yesterday's FOMC. Once that level was exceeded, and tested with a quick pullback yesterday, it was off to the races again. Bulls will support that level--DOW 12280 and SPX 1316.

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 12:47:09 PM

Looks like the bulls cannot stay in control two days back to back albeit yesterday was quite a day. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 12:43:50 PM

DJ- Dollar Recovers Against Euro On Steep Selloff in Commodities

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 12:43:21 PM

With new daily lows, the potential support areas you'll want to watch are where today's pullback will have two equal legs down. If it's going to be just a small a-b-c pullback correction against yesterday's rally then two equal legs down is where it could stop (or at least bounce back up to the highs). For the DOW and SPX those levels are at 12296 and 1321.65. If prices continue to drop through those levels then we'll know it's getting at least a little more bearish in the pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 12:40:34 PM

Fascinating ... check out PAL and SWC.

Just notiing that both have seen session lows $1.01 from next strike lower.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 12:36:34 PM

Now the SPX and OEX are testing those levels mentioned in my 12:02:47 and 12:17:09 posts. These are potential support levels, but the possibility exists that the SPX and OEX will now start finding resistance at their 15-minute 9-ema's and start trending down. Bulls want them to again sustain values above those 9-ema instead of finding resistance at them on 15-minute closes, and bears want the opposite, of course. They're at about 1330.50 and 618.80 currently.

Remember that the opex action sometimes starts a pin-them-to-the-numbers action about midmorning the last day the SPX front-month options trade, which is today for this month. When that happens, chart setups are never fulfilled and prices just chop back and forth. Keep watching your front-month option prices because if that happens, they'll start decreasing rapidly.

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 12:32:07 PM

Here is your daily chart of SPX. As you can see that 1320 ?zone? is still acting as resistance. SPX needs to break through 1400 for me get back on the bulls side. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 12:17:09 PM

Watch for potential SPX support near 1327-1327.50 on 15-minute closes. On the OEX, watch near 617-617.20.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 12:13:49 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $73.60 +2.64% ... 19.1% up at $75.88

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 12:12:45 PM

Ebay (EBAY) alert! 28.88 +4.86% ... 19.1% conventional.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 12:09:00 PM

If you shorted the bounce then lower your stop to a couple of ticks above the high of the bounce. I want to give this a little breathing room but will be looking for another opportunity to lower my stop once we get another corrective bounce.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 12:02:47 PM

The SPX looks as if it might be vulnerable to 1327.33; the OEX, 616.60. Those aren't givens, but are possibilities.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:53:42 AM

HSBC Holdings (HBC) $81.85 +1.21% ... decent trade-off.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:52:52 AM

Stillwater Minings (SWC) $16.99 -5.82% ... 38.2% conventional.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:52:01 AM

Gold Corp. (GG) $39.11 -5.32% ... sits on its 50% conventional.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:50:53 AM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 455.92 -5.23% ... 61.8% conventional. 1/22/08 relative low to recent highs.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:47:22 AM

CBOE's IWM March Options with OI observations Link

Recent VIX.X action (surge higher,then plunge lower) and these OI suggest to me a "Max Pain" of $70.00. Give/take $0.20

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:38:09 AM

darned QCharts ... terrible, terrible options montage open interest. Simply terrible.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:36:37 AM

IWM's March "Max Pain" tabulation $74. $1 increments.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:34:07 AM

RUT.X 684.50 +0.37% ... did tap conventional 19.1%. Will check IWM's "Max Pain" again.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:32:41 AM

Yesterday's RUT.X NH/NL was 20:56 (see 03/18/2008 @ 03:38:42 MM post) and chart Link

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 11:32:35 AM

If the market manages to push a little higher, watch SPX 1350 where it will hit its downtrend line from December (its 50-dma is a little lower at 1344.31). ES is currently about a point higher than SPX. I suspect a new high would also be met with lots of bearish divergences and would set up the next shorting opportunity. This is just a 1 to 2-day trade recommendation until I get a better sense of what the pullback is going to look like.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:30:26 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: It would take a closing measure of 18.00% or higher for the NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio to reverse up 3 boxes.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 11:29:26 AM

The OEX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 618.57 with potential resistance at 622.56 and 623.96, with the higher of those two potentially significant resistance on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 11:28:31 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1330.44, with that potential support on 15-minute closes. Potential resistance is now at 1340.05 and 1347.04, with the higher of the two potentially significant resistance.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 11:26:49 AM

The bounce has now achieved 62% of this morning's pullback so I would expect it to roll back over here. Short against this morning's high is the recommended play.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:21:53 AM

5-year "taps" 2.498%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:21:11 AM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $7.68 +3.22% ... see yesterday's MM.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:20:37 AM

Ah ... and I would think ANY FIXED INCOME investor should be taking some PROFITS in shorter-dated maturities, rolling out to some LONGER-DATED, or corporate or some "junk" to enchance their income.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 11:18:35 AM

The A/D line is now 596. It still hasn't been able to maintain levels above that Keltner resistance that I showed in my 10:24:01 post. That resistance is now at about 740 currently. There's still the potential for the A/D line to decline toward the day's low or even toward -700. It's just potential so far and not a probability, but keep this on your radar screen.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:18:31 AM

I would think any person with an ADJUSTABLE RATE mortgage, current on payments, decent credit score should be REFINANCING THEIR MORTGAGE to a 30-year FIXED!

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:16:55 AM

As you know, the FOMC lowered its target on Fed Funds to 2.25% yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:16:17 AM

up 6.5 bp.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:15:27 AM

5-year Yield ($FVX.X) alert! 2.476%

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:08:33 AM

MBIA Inc. (MBI) 12.50 +1.54% ... probes $12.50 strike again.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 11:08:48 AM

I've stretched out the DOW daily chart, the one posted at the end of the day yesterday, to get a little closer look at price action around the longer term uptrend lines. I've added the longer term uptrend line from March 2003 along with the one from October 2002. It seems like such a small difference but it's interesting to see how traders have reacted around these trend lines (bolded): Link

This morning's pullback stopped right at the 50-dma at 12327 which is also where the uptrend line from March 2003 is located. Price action has been oscillating around these trend lines for two months now as the bull vs. bear debate rages on.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 11:02:58 AM

So far, the SPX and OEX are balancing on their 15-minute 9-ema's. The SPX's is currently about 1237.50 and the OEX's, about 617.15. The FNM and FRE news today--that they would be allowed to buy more mortgages and thus supposedly add liquidity to mortgage-backed assets--doesn't seem to have created as much excitement as might have been anticipated with both well off their day's highs but still well above yesterday's close. Visa's IPO (V) has been flatlining near 57.40-59.50 since about 10:45.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:03:23 AM

USO $84.13 -1.94% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:03:06 AM

USO was trading $84.10 30-minutes ago.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:03:01 AM

Good benchmark 30-minutes ago ... DXY 71.66, roughly unchanged from FRIDAY's close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 11:00:15 AM

EIA Gross Inputs, Crude Oil Inputs, Ref. Op. Capacity, USO Price, Day's Supply Crude and DXY price Table at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 10:52:30 AM

EIA's # Days of Crude Oil Supply should show unchanged from last week's 21.3 day's supply.

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 10:51:51 AM

All markets have retraced back to their overnight ranges. the NDX futures have even tested overnight lows. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 10:51:31 AM

Just up a smidge from 02/15/08 low of 83.52%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 10:51:04 AM

EIA: Weekly Pct. Utilization of Op. Capacity down to 83.84% from prior week's 84.99%.

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 10:50:41 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - U.S. crude inventories gained by 2.5 million barrels to 307.7 million barrels in the week ending March 14, the American Petroleum Institute reported on Wednesday. Distillate stocks fell by 1.5 million barrels to 112.7 million barrels in the same period, while gasoline stocks dropped by 768,000 barrels to 218.5 million barrels, the API said.

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 10:50:16 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell sharply early on Wednesday, as investors booked profits off recent gains in the precious metal after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.75 percentage point on Tuesday.

The expiration of options and futures was also cited as adding to volatility and liquidation of positions.

Gold for April delivery plunged $46.30, or 4.6%, to $957.90 an ounce. Gold also took its cues from crude oil prices falling more than 3% ahead of weekly data expected to show rising crude inventories.

"With gold already up by more than 19% so far this year, consolidation is healthy and to be expected," said Mark O'Byrne, executive director of Gold & Silver Investments Ltd., in a note.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 10:49:52 AM

EIA: Weekly Refinery Op. Capacity unchanged at 17.436 million barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 10:48:55 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Inputs down 195,000 barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 10:48:14 AM

EIA: Weekly Gross Inputs down 199,000 barrels/day.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 10:46:20 AM

In my 9:59:46 post, I mentioned that the VIX was approaching potential Keltner support from 24.30-24.90, with the VIX then 25.34. After hitting a day's low of 25.16, it has since been climbing. It's now 26.46, testing the 15-minute 9-ema. Equity bears want it to maintain current levels and continue to climb. Equity bulls want the VIX to find resistance here (actually at about 26.28 on 15-minute closes) and decline again toward that potential target of 24.30.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 10:43:07 AM

EIA: SPR Added 682,000 Barrels

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 10:42:18 AM

Good gravy!

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 10:41:31 AM

EIA: Weekly Heating Oil Stockpiles down 3.17 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 10:40:27 AM

EIA: Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Stockpiles up 448,000 barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 10:39:35 AM

EIA: Weekly ULS Diesel Stockpiles down 15,000 barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 10:38:58 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Distillate Stockpiles down 2.91 million barrels.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 10:36:09 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now about 1327.80; the OEX's, 617.25. Bulls want those to hold on 15-minute closes, but there's potential for a deeper decline toward 1319 on the SPX and 613 on the OEX.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 10:34:59 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Gasoline Stockpiles down 3.44 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 10:34:25 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles up 133,000 barrels.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 10:28:03 AM

The OEX maintains a potential upside target of 623.58 on the 15-minute chart, but it's approached that closely enough that you need to be wary if in bullish positions. I see a potential for another push higher if the A/D line tries to rise to test its resistance level again. Of course, this is opex week and anything and everything can happen. About this time on the day the SPX front-month options stop trading (usually a Thursday), we start getting weird option-related moves that aren't particularly amenable to predictions by what's seen on the charts. Be aware that some setups are there with the potential for pullbacks. If there is a pullback, watch for potential support at the 15-minute 9-ema now at 617.12.

For the SPX, the potential upside target is 1346.48 with the 15-minute 9-ema now at 1327.79.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 10:26:48 AM

30-year Yield ($TYX.X) alert! down 8.3 bp at 4.246%

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 10:24:01 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: Here's a chart that shows why I'm watching the A/D line closely, watching for a potential for it to drop toward -900, dragging equities lower, too. That possibility exists as long as the A/D line can't scramble back above about 700 at least and stay there. Another breakout above 1200 would be preferable. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 10:17:09 AM

MBA Application Survey (Table) at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 10:15:36 AM

The AD ratio (top chart) is heading down as the AD volume (middle chart) is heading up. This is not bullish and puts into question the bullish AD volume. The VIX is also not bullish. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 10:13:59 AM

USDJPY now at 99.16, down from the high earlier this morning at 99.83.

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 10:10:25 AM

Here is Gold testing the support zone I showed earlier. Link

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 10:09:35 AM

AD line did not open above +1000 as I predicted but is climbing to that level with a daily high at +860

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 10:02:36 AM

AMEX Interactive Index (IIX.X) 199.95 -0.50% ... slips back under its conventional 19.1% retracement.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 10:02:34 AM

The DOW dropping back down to 12K at a minimum is the kind of retracement I'm thinking. But remember, the rally off Monday's low might have been the completion of an A-B-C correction off the Mar 10th low and we'll now start back down to new lows (either pretty much straight down or in a very choppy fashion, and which way we decline will help me figure out what the larger wave pattern is likely playing out).

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 9:59:46 AM

Keltner outlook on the VIX: The VIX approaches potential support from 24.30-24.90. The VIX is 25.34 as I type.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 9:58:35 AM

Gold and silver (and oil) have both dropped to potential support so they could be getting ready for a bounce (while equities should be starting a deep pullback at a minumum).

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 9:56:44 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $83.95 -2.15% ... eases back below 19.1% conventional.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 9:56:21 AM

The SPX's current target has been pushed up to 1346.11 from its 1345-ish earlier target. Remain aware that there's potential resistance on a daily close near 1333-1335, so if you're in bullish trades, make some what-if plans in case the SPX has reached or is approaching its daily high and pulls back to that support by the close.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 9:56:42 AM

When the gold bugs run they run fast. Gold is down $50 this morning (-5%) to $954. Silver is down $1.50 (-7%) to $18.40.

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 9:54:22 AM

Morgan Stanley (MS) $46.52 +8.53% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for EPS of $4.23 on Revenue of $9.8B

Jeff Bailey : 3/19/2008 9:50:33 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 9:52:39 AM

Japan's central bank is now being run by committee, with Governor Fukui having served his last day in office and no successor named. Articles on Nikkei Net begin to speak with alarm of the "leadership vacuum at the central bank even as concern over a financial crisis is escalating around the globe." As I've mentioned through the last couple of weeks, no one knows whether Governor Fukui's successor will be more inclined or less inclined to intervene in currency markets, more hawkish or more dovish about rates, less able or more able to work cooperatively with the globe's other central banks. That means we don't know what's going to happen with the USDJPY, although I would think that with the feeling that our Fed might be nearly through and the better-than-expected performance of some of the reporting financials this week, there might be at least some temporary strengthening. Do note that Japan has a national holiday tomorrow and we do, of course, on Friday, so the USDJPY might be a bit rudderless. Volume might be less than normal, swinging it back and forth.

As I've pointed out for more than a year, since the debacle that occurred in Feb 2007 with yen carry trades suddenly unwinding, the direction of the USDJPY has impacted our equities. Whether or not that intermarket relationship continues to be as strong in the future, I don't know, but today, be aware that many forces are working on that currency pair, many of which we can't predict at this time.

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 9:48:04 AM

The DOW is approaching its downtrend line from December (near 12450) at a time when the wave count from Monday's low looks complete (5 waves). To expect it to push through resistance would be a stretch--could happen but unlikely in my opinion. Instead I think we're setting up a short play here.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 9:42:23 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1322.18, with that potential support on 15-minute closes. Equity bulls would rather that lighter support, now at 1330.36 hold on any pullbacks.

For the OEX, those numbers are 614.48 and 618.14, respectively.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 9:41:06 AM

The A/D line climbed toward first resistance instead of sinking toward first support. With a high so far of 997, it approached the 1100 resistance and is backing off just a bit, to 861 currently. Equity bulls want to see it consolidate sideways or make another push higher rather than fall back toward support. Be aware that it has hit potential resistance.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 9:34:08 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: the A/D line is a modest 516 as I type. It's between potential Keltner resistance at about +1000 and then +1500 and potential Keltner support at -50, with the potential to go either direction.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 9:32:40 AM

The SPX's 15-minute chart shows a potential upside target of 1345.37, but I'd be wary of the 1333-1335 zone for potential resistance, at least on a daily close.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 9:31:07 AM

Today's task for the SPX, if this is to be considered anything other than more volatility within a two-week consolidation zone, is to maintain values above the 3/12 high of 1333.26 at the close today. That should also result in a close at or above the 30-sma. That's just a first step.

Linda Piazza : 3/19/2008 9:29:11 AM

Remember that this shortened trading week will result in an altered expiration calendar. Today will be the last trading day for March options on some indices, such as the SPX. Settlement values will be determined tomorrow morning.

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 9:27:00 AM

Crude is heading to test the $100/bl and I think that support will hold. Link

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 9:26:00 AM

Finally Gold is taking the needed retracement but coming up to a zone where I think the retracement will find considerable support. Link

Keene Little : 3/19/2008 9:23:09 AM

The spike up in equity futures in the past 45 minutes looks manufactured to me and turned what was going to be a big gap down day into something more positive. But will it hold this morning? I mentioned we could see a little more upside this morning but that we're due a pullback. As volatile as this market has been, even just a pullback could be a 200-point decline on the DOW.

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 9:23:13 AM

There can be only one way to describe this overnight session - bullish. The Russell 2000 futures (ER2) is testing its overnight high as I type. I suspect the AD line to open above +1000. Link

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 8:59:00 AM

Tuesday's action was strong enough to trigger a bullish technical event known as a "Double Nine-To-One" signal.

This indicator is based on the volume of all NYSE-listed stocks that go up on a given day, expressed as a percentage of the total volume of all stocks that rose or fell on that day. On a day when rising stocks' volume is the same as declining stocks' volume, for example, this ratio would be exactly 50%.

A single "Nine-To-One Up Day" occurs when this ratio is 90% or higher on a given day. According to Martin Zweig, who helped to develop this indicator several decades ago, such a huge imbalance of up volume over down volume "is a significant sign of positive momentum. In other words, when daily up volume leads down volume by a ratio of 9-to-1 or more, that tends to be an important signal for stocks." The quotation comes from Zweig's 1986 book, "Winning on Wall Street."

Jane Fox : 3/19/2008 8:57:08 AM

Visa (V) priced its IPO last night at $44 a share to raise nearly $18 billion.

The pricing came in above the previously estimated $37 to $42 range.

"Given overwhelmingly positive feedback we received from investors and the high quality nature of the issuer, we are not surprised that the deal was very well received despite tough market conditions," said Christopher Mammone, an analyst at Deutsche Bank in a note reiterating a buy on rival MasterCard (MA:

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