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Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2008 1:58:58 AM

MM Profiles Trade Blotter (March to date) at this Link

I've been trading some smaller positions buying time, trying to not use stops on the options and look/plan for more volatile conditions. Other than the occassional day trade, no margin utilized.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 11:13:28 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 11:03:48 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 3/20/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 5:02:37 PM

I'm working on charts for the weekend newsletter (it will be out Sunday instead of tonight). In the meantime, I'll show what I'm thinking. The SPX 60-min chart shows a break above Wednesday's high near 1342 would also be a break of the downtrend line from December and would therefore be bullish by both accounts: Link

Until that happens I continue to believe we'll get another leg down in the decline (so another reversal of Thursday's reversal of Wednesday's reversal of Tuesday's reversal). What's not clear yet is whether the decline will lead to a choppy move to a minor new low by the end of the month (light green) or a harder decline that takes us much lower into April. These scenarios are shown on the daily chart: Link

I hope everyone has a great long weekend. Happy Easter.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 4:14:03 PM

Oooeeeee .... SPY $132.05 ... since 04:00 tick ... $132.83 to $130.72.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 4:10:44 PM

Well, had I played the GOOG $410 puts yesterday, their high would have been $1.15 this morning.

Went with what I thought would be market direction today, but GOOG gapped the wrong way.

Several weeks ago there was some bullish comments for GOOG regarding possibility of FCC licenses. Didn't get a one.

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 4:04:12 PM

Today closed at its high again. It seems lately that's an omen for a reversal the next day. Short covering into the close leaves noone else to buy come the next day (or just the opposite). Each side has so little conviction that they're not willing to hold over to the next day. If see a little pop higher on Monday it could have the DOW tagging its downtrend line from December again near 12420 Monday morning so about 50 points higher (which it can cover in a couple of minutes the way this market is trading).

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 4:02:24 PM

Here comes the volume ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 4:02:04 PM

SPY $132.61 +1.75% ... 15-minutes. 15-minute call.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 4:00:07 PM

Now that I've cheered everyone, I hope you all have a great three-day weekend! I'm headed off for a long weekend holiday with my family in which we'll celebrate the fourth birthday of a granddaughter who wasn't expected to live past two, so we have much to celebrate.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 3:58:35 PM

So far, the body of today's candle fits entirely inside the body of yesterday's. Although it's not a classic inside day, it very nearly is.

The week's candle will be a tall green one follow last week's doji, which follows a long red candle. Although this week's lower low means that this, too, is not a classic form, it is an approximation, however, of a morning star pattern, a potential reversal pattern.

Great news, right? It would be, except that the weeks of 1/14, 1/22 and 1/28, the SPX produced a classic morning star reversal signal. The next week saw a sharp reversal all right, but a reversal the wrong direction as the SPX began the process that resulted in this week's low. I mean it when I say that you can't count on anything in these markets. Make your hold-over decisions accordingly.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:58:23 PM

OEX 620.56 +2.70% ... more than a smidge above WKLY R1. A smidge below MONTHLY Pivot 623.67.

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 3:57:34 PM

Looks like shorts are more nervous about the weekend than longs. Or it's just opex pinning. Regardless, I'll just wait until Monday to see if we get another reversal of a reversal of a reversal.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:56:53 PM

Not sure what OEX settle was last expire, but OEX went out a smidge above its WKLY Pivot of 622.55.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 3:50:37 PM

If you hold March OEX options, remember that they'll settle at the close. They do not settle at the closing OEX price, but at a price computed from the closing price of each OEX component. If the OEX is headed up into the close, that could be higher than the closing OEX value; if the OEX is dropping into the close, that could be lower than the OEX close, but you just never know. Make your decisions in the next few minutes about whether you'll close those options or just let them expire.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:49:51 PM

SMH $29.07 +1.25% ... right at previously noted "Max Pain" $29.00. Any bias? Even a smidge?

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:45:43 PM

Into the close ... SPY $132.40 +1.59% ... going to be a battle at the $132.00 overlap?

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 3:43:02 PM

If you shorted near the high it should work from here, stop at a new daily high. Even tighter, have your stop just above the last little bounce at 3:30 PM. We should get some selling into the close now but if it turns back up then I'll simply step out of the way.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:39:21 PM

VIX.X 26.40 -11.52% ... sit'n at WKLY S1 after tap of MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:38:07 PM

TSO $29.79
TOL $23.00
GG $37.50
MO $70.20
MBI $12.50

PBR $95.87
WHR $87.50
SWC $15.97
GOOG $433

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:34:50 PM

03:00 tick on the DXY was 72.73.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:33:39 PM

30-minutes to stock option expiration.

45 for trackers.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:31:50 PM

Things just seem to get a little more active after the bond market closes. Don't they?

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 3:28:00 PM

Buyers not letting up yet. The downtrend line from December, which stopped the rally yesterday morning, is currently at DOW 12426 so that's upside potential. But the price pattern is looking like an ending pattern and bearish divergences are showing up. It could be topping right here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:23:26 PM

VZ $36.26

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:23:11 PM

Big buyers/close outs at the open though. As if they "knew" it was coming.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:22:32 PM

It may not be soon enough for those DIA $124 long put holders. A little "Max Pain" today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:21:40 PM

GOOG $432.50 +0.12% ... 40-minutes, 40-minutes until expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:21:01 PM

VZ $36.22

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:20:26 PM

VZ $36.19

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:19:59 PM

Day Trade long exit alert! ... the VZ at $36.15

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 3:18:15 PM

If any subscribers are cutting out early to get a start on your three day weekend, have a great weekend. Relax, take some deep breaths and remember that there is a world outside this crazy market environment these days.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:16:51 PM

DIA daily R1 and Monthly Pivot overlap too. (see your pivot matrix)

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 3:16:18 PM

The SPX continues to climb, of course, with the 15-minute 9-ema climbing with it. That's at 1320 as I type. If in bullish positions, your only decision now is where to place your stop and whether to carry your position over the weekend. If you look at a daily chart, you see the all today did was reverse yesterday's action. What gets reversed one direction one day can get reversed the other the next, and vice versa.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:15:18 PM

Finger on the button alert! ... VZ $16.16 +2.93% ... with GREEN #4 and DAILY R2 overlap at $36.27.

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 3:15:16 PM

This one day rally one day selloff then the next day rally is getting kind of old and I, for one, would like to see some kind of follow through. Of course you know that will happen - at some point this will all stop and we will get a fantastic rally or a fantastic selloff. I think it will be a fantastic rally though. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:10:51 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 3:06:19 PM

Drawing parallel up-channels for today's bounce shows the tops of the channels near DOW 12350/SPX 1328.60 (the DOW is tagging it as I type) so this is another potential level to top out. Much higher than this and I'd prefer to see if it tips back over and then try shorting a bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 3:00:38 PM

Swing trade call target adjustment ... cancel all prior target orders for the GOP-CJ.

REPLACE with orders to sell the GOP-CJ should they trade $0.20 (make sure it makes sense with your commission schedule).

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 2:56:43 PM

BIX.X 264.42 +6.75% ... takes another look at 19.1% conventional.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 2:52:24 PM

NYSE A/D 2,209/925

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 2:52:01 PM

BKX.X 84.97 +6.30% ... takes another look at 19.1% conventional.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 2:47:37 PM

Off to the races: Be aware, however, that the SPX has just hit its weekly 200-sma. This can be and has been important on weekly closes. Throughout the early part of the year, it was tested many times and was support on weekly closes. Will it be resistance now?

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 2:43:48 PM

It's too wide of a stop for me, but the important high for bears is yesterday's. If that high is exceeded then we have something more immediately bullish. As long as that high holds then we should see another strong decline following this bounce.

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 2:41:12 PM

Coming up on those upper targets. It's a good setup for a short play so watch for failure to start nibbling.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 2:38:17 PM

DJ- FCC: (from 02:20 PM) Verizon Wireless Biggest Winner of 6 C-Block Spectrum Licenses. Has National License In C-Block.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 2:35:45 PM

Day trade long raise stop alert! for the VZ $35.91 +2.22% ... to even.

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 2:35:22 PM

AD line is now talking. +1177 and heading straight up.

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 2:34:28 PM

A little bit lower upside targets for the DOW and SPX are where the 5th wave will equal the 1st wave in the 2nd leg up. Those are near 12303 and 1321.78 so not much higher.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 2:32:21 PM

DJ- FCC: Echostar Nearly Has National Reach For Wireless Broadband. Wins 168 Spectrum licenses in E-Block

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 2:30:42 PM

Google didn't win any licenses in spectrum auction.

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 2:27:59 PM

It's now looking like we're getting a small 4th wave correction in the 2nd leg up from the mid-day low. If true then we should get another push higher in the 5th wave to complete the a-b-c bounce off this morning's low. Two equal legs up for the a-b-c bounce is at DOW 12336/SPX 1325.48, both of which are a little more than a 62% retracement of yesterday's decline. The completion of this bounce is what should set up the next big leg down.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 2:24:45 PM

Day trade long alert! ... for full position in shares of Verizon (VZ) at the offer of $35.78. Stop goes $35.68. Target $36.25.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 2:21:02 PM

NY Fed: To Offer $75B In Tsys For 28 Days March 27

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 2:12:14 PM

PBR $96.00 ... PMJ-OS now $0.40 x $0.50.

Thought hard about selling NAKED to today's close. Closing out at $1.40 after $3.70 entry enough pain.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 2:10:44 PM

As of the close of the last 15-minute period a few minutes ago, the breakout still looked iffy. The SPX continues to build on previous gains, but it's certainly not an exuberant breakout. Just as this morning, my gut reaction told me that the extreme downside target was unlikely to be met, my observations of the way this is happening tells me to remain cautious, so bulls should keep their stops moving up with the SPX. The 15-minute 9-ema is now about 1313.20.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 2:08:57 PM

Not a lot of CALL OI to trigger NAKED buying.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 2:07:45 PM

GOP-CF $1.35 x $1.40 ... OI at last night's close was 6,778. They've traded 29,692 so far today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 1:52:19 PM

iShares S&P Natl. Muni Bond (MUB) $100.25 +0.19% ... sticks its head back above 50% conventional.

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 1:52:10 PM

NDX just tagged the Fib projection for two equal legs up from this morning's low (1736.64) and just past its 38% retracement of yesterday's decline. This could be finishing its corrective bounce so be careful if you're long. It's also a good place to nibble on a short to see if it drops back down now.

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 1:52:07 PM

AD line breifly made it above +1000 (+1038) but has retreated and is now +920

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 1:51:32 PM

So far, the SPX is holding above what appeared to be Keltner resistance now at about 1316.34, but barely. It has not yet, however, produced a 15-minute close above that level, so the breakout is still a little iffy.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 1:50:01 PM

VXN.X 29.19

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 1:49:34 PM

Do I hear harps?

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 1:49:01 PM

GOOG sticks its head above $430 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 1:48:45 PM

QQQQ comes to daily Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 1:41:17 PM

It would be a last-day Op-Ex trade of "biblical proportions" if GOOG were to go DAILY R2 and Green #6.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 1:39:17 PM

GOP-CJ $0.00 x $0.05 ... 1,998 traded so far today.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 1:38:45 PM

This is a prime stop-running time of day we're entering, from about 1:35-1:55 pm ET. This isn't a malicious thing but rather a testing of whether an up move will be met with selling or a down one with buying before big money commits itself. Just be aware that this isn't the result but the test, and we don't yet know the result.

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 1:38:27 PM

Then again, maybe not. Pushing to a new daily high so it needs to hold the new high now in order to maintain the bullishness. Another leg down as part of a larger pullback is still possible.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 1:37:23 PM

GOOG $427.60 -0.99% ... edges above GREEN #1.

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 1:31:38 PM

The current bounce look corrective and I think we'll get another leg down as part of a larger pullback before proceeding higher again.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 1:28:28 PM

The OEX churns between potential resistance on 15-minute closes near 613.90 and potential support near 606.50.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 1:27:46 PM

Just churning. While between potential resistance on 15-minute closes near 1315.60 and potential support near 1300.90, the SPX is just churning with little prediction of next direction. This could continue into the end of the day although symmetry suggests that the SPX has churned enough that it could break any time and still look symmetrical with Tuesday's period of consolidation.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 1:21:30 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 1:15:32 PM

YM 12,206 ... DIA $121.97

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 1:12:07 PM

Reminder ... bond market is now closed.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 1:01:01 PM

Me thinks there may well have be some shorts of the TLT on the h/s pattern. Maybe some NAKED call sellers. Pattern breaks into expiration and the trade unwinds.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 12:58:55 PM

See the PRICE gains for the TLT 5-day and 20-day? Now think of those short (don't just think about longs) that pay some dividend on their positions.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 12:56:53 PM

iShares Lehman 20-year (TLT) ... options montage at this Link ... about as close as we can get with an ETR to the 30-year bond's price.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 12:49:40 PM

I like, or find interesting the interpretive headlines ... One could say ... "Copper Tumbles as Chile Peso Closes 2.5% weaker"

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 12:48:02 PM

DJ- Chile Peso Closes 2.5% Weaker On Copper Tumble, US Concerns

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 12:43:41 PM

BIDU $205.46 -6.69% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 12:43:20 PM

My GOP-CJ "lottery play" isn't looking very good today. GOOG $423.89 -1.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 12:38:33 PM

30-year ($TYX.X) down 4.5 at 4.176% ... tests and sits at its DAILY S1.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 12:37:55 PM

Factor in that possible scenario I've been mentioning, that move back down toward 1299.80 or maybe even the day's low and then . . . . Nothing has happened that argues against that possibility yet.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 12:30:43 PM

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) with some trade reviews Link

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 12:30:43 PM

I'm studying the SPX's consolidation period on Tuesday near the current consolidation period, trying to figure out if charts predict whether there will be a break one direction or another today or if prices will just chop around until Monday. Symmetry suggests that there could be a break this afternoon but doesn't promise it, of course. The setup I'm watching may just fizzle out in the typical opex action. For now, the SPX is tangled up between support and resistance, with both looking about equal in strength but with the resistance pressuring the SPX down toward support near 1305-1306 and then 1299.25 if the first support fails.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 12:25:41 PM

Jane, you are absolutely asking the wrong person. (Your 11:58:18 post.) Ask me about what I think about Einstein's research toward the end of his life as opposed to the early papers, but not about the ins and outs of this. I can't figure it out.

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 12:21:49 PM

Here are the overnight charts and as you can see the NDX futures (NQ) is the only market that is trading within it overnight range. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 12:09:50 PM

US Oil Fund $80.55 -2.11% ... I like to have at least one chart with some futures expiration benchmarks. Link

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 12:00:32 PM

Gold has finally taken the needed dip as well and the daily jtHMA has turned red. Link

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 11:58:18 AM

Tks Linda. But what has changed? I have always used Word but only lately have I been having this issue.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 11:56:15 AM

Jane, I think you have to turn off all auto-formatting. You don't want "smart" quotes, but instead want the . . . unsmart (?) ones, for example.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 11:54:35 AM

Now here's the downturn back toward SPX Keltner support. That begins at about 1306.80 and extends down to 1299.35 on 15-minute closes. If that support is lost on 15-minute closes and the day's previous low exceeded, then I'll come closer to believing in that potential downside target if it's reset gain. It would now be at about 1252 if reset. We still don't know the outcome yet, but so far, the scenario is playing out as it appeared it could.

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 11:53:31 AM

If SPX pulls back to its broken downtrend line from yesterday it should find support at or above 1300.

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 11:49:26 AM

Why are my Word documents getting all messed up on the monitor nowadays? I have always (well almost always) used Word to build my posts because it has a spell checker and grammar checker but now all the characters like apostrophe, brackets, etc are converted to question marks. ARFGGGG!!!!

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 11:48:52 AM

The banks (BIX) are at an important spot here after rallying strong this week. BIX is back up to the top of its parallel down-channel from last year, currently near 261 and MACD is back up to the zero line. If the banks roll back over here and MACD curls back down, it will be a sell signal. But if BIX can continue its climb, especially with a break above 274, MACD will get above zero and we'll have a buy signal. Follow the money. Link

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 11:46:38 AM

Crude's daily jtHMA has now turned red telling us it has started the dip we need to, ?Buy the dip.? We now need the 120/60 minute to turn back green and that is our signal to go long. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 11:44:49 AM

Or ... sell COVERED some out-the-money puts against a position.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 11:43:51 AM

What the "Bailey Wave" and DXY trade would help with at this point is some trade management.

Multiple long put, or short commodity-related trader might take 1/2 of a position off the table, book some gain (or reduce a loss from several weeks/months ago). Sit things out for a bit and see if dollar won't rally further.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 11:39:54 AM

I've got PHF $7.60 x $7.70. Various QCharts servers "stuck" at a $7.81 quote. It's traded there today, but not right now.

A buyer of $7.81 was looking at an SEC Yield of 11.5%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 11:36:52 AM

Seems "crazy" to me to be buying 0.375% in 13-week.

Yesterday it seemed "crazy" that the 5-year got to 2.50%. Didn't last more than about 10-minutes though did it?

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 11:33:05 AM

DXY daily interval chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 11:29:54 AM

DXY in our little "triangle" of QS2 and mid-point of "Bailey Wave"

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 11:29:11 AM

SWC $16.17 -0.12% ... low has been $15.49.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 11:28:42 AM

PAL $5.41 -5.07% ... low as been $4.90.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 11:28:11 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1310.47. The OEX's is about 610.85. Bulls want any pullbacks to find support at those on 15-minute closes. I'm not certain that this current push higher isn't part of a sideways-sideways-up consolidation period, but that's perhaps just my expectation of consolidation here that's coloring my take on the what's happening. Bulls need to see the SPX and OEX continue to make gains strong enough to keep those 15-minute 9-ema's from flattening to maintain an upward trend, though, and bulls should remain aware of the potential for a rollover back toward this morning's support. That potential has not yet been undone, at least in my opinion.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 11:28:10 AM

June Palladium (pa08m) $-19.05, or -4.10%

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 11:28:51 AM

Notice also on the SPX 10-min chart that I just posted that the bounce up to a 50% retracement at 1318.55 would also be back to the previous 4th wave high (wave (iv) at yesterday afternoon's high). This is typically a good place to watch for a bounce to find resistance. So if it gets there more directly (instead of the pullback as I depicted) then it could still be the end of the upward correction.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 11:27:33 AM

SLV $-12.30, or -6.73% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 11:27:12 AM

GLD $-2.04, or -2.22%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 11:26:39 AM

Not seeing much sign of aggression from equity buyers.

Bulls got some further dollar strength, but the treasury trade pretty much flat.

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 11:20:11 AM

VIX is making new daily lows as the S&P (ES) is making new daily highs.

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 11:18:43 AM

To give a sense of what could play out today, this SPX 10-min chart shows the Fib retracement levels of yesterday's decline and a Fib time projection for the correction. The typical corection here will be about a 50% price retracement in about 62% of the time it took for the leg down and that's what I'm showing on the chart: Link

I'm expecting an a-b-c bounce and we might have completed wave-a. A pullback in wave-b and then the 2nd leg up as wave-c should set up the next larger leg down. Now I'm watching to see how this develops and will update as we move forward.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 11:13:05 AM

I'm not surprised to see the VIX steadying near its low of the day while the SPX steadies near its high of the day. No new information here. It's just corroboration. I'm also not getting any new information from the A/D line. It's not at historical or Keltner resistance, but also not at historical or Keltner support.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 11:11:06 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 10:59:39 AM

The SPX finally hits the 1313 level, being at 1313.24 as I type. Watch again for consolidation potential near this level, from 1313-1315.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 10:58:44 AM

The RUT has had its requisite four 15-minute periods consolidating near 673 and it may now tell us next direction for other indices. As I began typing this post, in fact, it began bouncing again and hit a new high of the day. I'm not certain that this higher move will hold as it could be just part of an attempted punch higher that gets reversed or stunted, but I am certain that we should watch to see if it does. The consolidation could actually easily go on another hour or two.

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 10:54:51 AM

With prices stalled near this morning's highs we could see a bit more of a pullback before getting the 2nd leg up. This being "Friday" of opex week we might find price action goes real quiet on us as stock prices get pinned.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 10:40:55 AM

SPX's was 3:7

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 10:40:43 AM

RUT.X's NH/NL from yesterday was 25:39

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 10:40:16 AM

By the way I still monitor the DOW on the 377 because at some point I know this market will make a comeback at which point I may just start trading two markets. Ya right!!!

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 10:38:04 AM

I have been talking about my trading plan, money management etc the last few days so I would now like to update you all as to where I am currently. I traded the DOW futures (YM) on a 377 tick chart quite successfully from August to the middle of February at which point I noticed my account starting to slip away from me. I had about 3 daily circuit breakers in a 2 week period and although my account did not reach the 20% stop and reevaluate I decided it was time to stop and reevaluate. I continued to monitor (paper trade) the YM on the 377tick and it continued to be an underperformer so I started testing the Russell 2000 (my old nemesis) on a faster timeframe, the 233 Tick. (Notice the tick charts I use are all Fibonacci numbers.)

I trade with a group of people and they were all doing very well with the Russell on the 233 tick. This timeframe is fast for me but since it was the market/timeframe that was profitable I needed to make it work. I start my trading day with no distractions; email, IM, phone. I have two desktops open on two different monitors one with the charts and the other with my Tradestation Matrix (my trading platform). I close everything else down. So far I have been doing very very well and will be ready to start with real money next week. It is still fast for me and I do need to recognize how easily I allow distractions to overtake me but this is all part of the psychology we need to work through.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 10:37:02 AM

My SPX/RUT comparison from my 10:20:24 post was wrong. The SPX is moving up toward that potential resistance, although it's now at 1312.30. Remember that it could consolidate there for three or four 15-minute periods.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 10:32:51 AM

Daily, Weekly, Monthly Index Pivot Matrix Link

I quickly highlighted today's action in the Daily.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 10:26:47 AM

The VIX is dropping rapidly. It's well below potential Keltner support. Unless it bounces quickly, it's certainly changing its tenor since yesterday afternoon.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 10:20:24 AM

So far, the SPX hasn't even been able to rise up to 1313. I'm noticing that the RUT, however, has moved up in to the "669.30-670.20 or perhaps 673.17" level on 15-minute closes where I thought it might then begin consolidating, as explained in last night's Wrap. The RUT hit a high of 673.97 and closed that 15-minute period at 670.50. That presents the possibility that it will be the 1305-1310 level where the SPX consolidates for a few 15-minute bars since the setups were similar for all the indices. This is just speculation, but if this what-if scenario from last night plays out over the next few 15-minute bars, that means that we don't know final direction yet, and there's every possibility tht the SPX could roll down again sometime later this morning or afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 10:13:40 AM

Dollar Index (DXY) 72.78 +0.87% (30-min delayed) ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 10:12:32 AM

Treasuriex mixed-to-higher in price.

5-year up 1.6 bp

10-year down 0.6 bp

30-year down 1.8 bp.

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 10:08:33 AM

The Philly Fed index number, which wasn't great but is now past us, sparked the rally. It was ready to go so it's not really the news but the pundits will say it is. No matter, we should get a 3-wave bounce (this is only the 1st leg up) which will set up a shorting opportunity a little later. The DOW and SPX quickly made it up to the tops of their down-channels, the downtrend lines from yesterday morning so watch for a pullback before proceeding higher.

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 10:06:34 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy may be "grinding to a halt," the Conference Board said Thursday, reporting that the index of leading economic indicators fell 0.3% in February, the fifth straight decline.

The coincident indicators - the best overview of the current economy - have been flat for three straight months, the private research group said.

"Growth will be weak this spring," said Ken Goldstein, labor economist for the Conference Board. "A small contraction in economic activity cannot be ruled out."

The leading indicators are designed to forecast economic activity six to nine months ahead. The last time the leading index fell for five straight months was in early 2001, at the beginning of the last recession.

The January leading index was revised lower to a 0.4% decline from a 0.1% decline.

The coincident indicators are the same four indicators used by the business-cycle dating committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research to judge whether the economy is in a recession or is expanding.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 10:06:05 AM

The SPX still struggles with Keltner resistance up to about 1306.34. If it can sustain values above that on 15-minute closes, still not guaranteed, it will be time to start watching for the potential scenario laid out in the chart linked to my 8:39:47 post and included in last night's Wrap, the one I thought the highest probability outcome. That suggested that the SPX could bounce and then find resistance strong enough to stall it for three or four 15-minute candles at least near 1313-1314 on 15-minute closes or perhaps as high as the next potential Keltner resistance near 1319-1320.

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 10:05:25 AM

U.S. March Philly Fed above consensus -18.0

March Philly Fed -17.4 vs. -24.0 in Feb.

Feb. coincident indicators flat for 3rd month in row

Economy 'grinding to halt,' Conference Board says

Leading indicators down 5 months in a row

Feb. leading indicators fall 0.3%

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 10:03:44 AM

Correction to my 09:54:33 ... ticker for the PBR Mar $95 Put (PMJ-OS) ... This put was purchased/profiled on 1/03/2008 as PBR was trading $107.71.

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 9:59:21 AM

Please be aware the Philly Fed is on at 10EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 9:56:22 AM

VIX.X 29.25 -1.97% ...

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 9:56:10 AM

The VIX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 29.01 with further potential support at 28.79. Here's a chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 9:54:33 AM

Swing trade put exit alert! for the Petroleo Brasileiro PBR Mar $95 Put (PMJ-OJ) at the bid of $1.40.

PBR $95.00

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 9:53:59 AM

The SPX was not able to sustain values above resistance on a 15-minute close, so the resistance held. While the numbers at 10:00 am could change the tenor of the markets, vulnerability to 1251.63 must be factored into your decision. Somehow I just don't believe that's going to happen, but the charts say it's a distinct possibility. I'd be leery of trusting any targets these days, but if you're in the markets or thinking about entering ahead of the 10:00 numbers, you should build some what-if plans around that possibility, just in case.

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 9:48:28 AM

SPX is testing the post-FOMC low at 1296 and is at the bottom of a parallel down-channel from yesterday morning's high so it's a good place for a stronger bounce to start: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 9:45:05 AM

VIX.X 29.53 -1.03% ...

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 9:44:32 AM

I see the VIX making new daily lows but then so is the S&P futures (ES) so they are not in sync. This tells me ES?s new daily lows will not hold.

Jeff Bailey : 3/20/2008 9:44:29 AM

Swing trade put target alert! ... for the US Oil Fund USO April $85 Puts (UNA-PG) at the bid of $7.10.

USO $79.99 -2.79% ...

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 9:42:58 AM

AD line opens at an anemic +210

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 9:41:22 AM

Although the VIX pulls back this morning, it's still so far above the 15-minute 9-ema, with that now at 28.95 and above other potentially important support near 28.78. Equity bulls want to see the VIX sustain values below those potential support levels but bears want bounces from them if they're tested. The VIX is currently 29.40, so be aware that the short-term trend that was put in place about noon yesterday on the VIX (bounce for the VIX up from the 15-minute 9-ema with a resultant decline in equities) has not yet been broken. Be careful if trying out bullish positions if the VIX should drop to that support and bounce or just bounce without dropping first.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 9:36:41 AM

Remember that we have potentially important numbers coming at 10:00 am ET. Those could move the markets. Make any early morning trading decisions with that in mind.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 9:35:50 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line is tangled right now in potential Keltner resistance, as are the SPX and OEX. For the A/D line, that extends up to about 275 currently, with the A/D line now at 281. Obviously, equity bulls want to see the A/D maintain levels higher than this while the bears want the A/D line to roll back down again.

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 9:34:28 AM

Here we go. I'm watching to see if the SPX can climb back above a Keltner channel level now at 1305.85 and then the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1308.57 or if it gets turned back there or at the lower Keltner resistance now being tested near 1302.

The OEX has already pushed above potential Keltner resistance analogous to the 1305.85 level on the SPX, with that near 606.20 for the OEX, but it of course has not closed a 15-minute period above that yet. The 15-minute 9-ema is now at 608.98.

Keene Little : 3/20/2008 9:25:35 AM

Equity futures had a nice recovery off the overnight low which currently has the DOW futures (YM) about 100 points up off the low. SPX futures (ES) are up an even stronger 17 points. Both will start mildly bullish this morning but those lows will be a magnet. If we get the bounce as I projected on last night's charts it should be a good setup for a short play back down to those lows, and potentially lower.

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 9:17:46 AM

Crude is finding support at $100/bl which was to be expected. Link

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 9:16:59 AM

Gold has sliced through a support zone and in three days has fallen from a high of 1033 to a low of 904.70, over $100/oz. This is just the way Gold works rally hard but selloff harder. Link

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 9:14:10 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Continuing to signal a weak labor market, the Labor Department reported Thursday that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose 22,000 to 378,000 for the week ended March 15.

Economists see readings consistently higher than 350,000 as signaling significant weakening in the labor market, and this level has been breached since late January. Initial claims ranging from about 300,000 to 325,000 are consistent with a healthy rate of U.S. employment growth.

The four-week average of initial claims gained 6,000 to 365,250. Initial claims for the prior week were revised to 356,000 from an initial estimate of 353,000.

For the week ended March 8, continuing claims for benefits rose 32,000 to 2.87 million -- the highest since August 2004. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 19,750 to 2.83 million -- the highest since September 2004.

Initial claims represent job destruction, while the level of continuing claims indicates how hard or easy it is for displaced workers to find new jobs.

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 9:15:21 AM

Here is a look at the SPX's daily chart, it is a chart of rally one day and then selloff the next. This may go on for some time yet but in the meantime take a look at the MACD divergences. The swing highs at February 4th and February 26th were lower highs but the MACD was a higher high. The swings lows at January 23rd and March 17th were lower lows but the MACD was a higher low. This has to tell you there this buying pressure and the next move will be up. I don?t think 1400 will break anytime soon but I think the yearly lows are in for now, barring any more near global financial meltdowns. Link

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 9:01:49 AM

Overnight the markets broke their previous day lows but have recovered enough to regain their previous day ranges. This is a pretty tepid start to the day. Link

Jane Fox : 3/20/2008 9:00:00 AM

Dateline WSJ - PARIS -- The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Thursday downgraded its economic forecasts for the U.S., euro-zone and Japan for the first half of 2008 and warned Europe and Japan that they don't have room to ease fiscal or monetary policy.

"As concerns the real economy, near-term global growth prospects have weakened more than projected in the December 2007 OECD Economic Outlook," the 30-nation economic think tank said in an interim update, saying the factors at play are unlikely to fade soon.

The OECD revised its growth forecast for first-quarter gross domestic product in the U.S. to 0.1% and predicted GDP would be to flat in the second quarter. The assessment only covers the first two quarters of the year, and the OECD didn't provide comparative figures.

"The U.S. economy is now essentially moving sideways, if not contracting outright," the OECD said. "It may be premature to declare a recession, but with the pace of activity so far below potential, economic slack is widening rapidly."

Linda Piazza : 3/20/2008 8:39:47 AM

For those who didn't read the Wrap last night, here's the annotated 15-Minute chart for the SPX with some levels to watch this morning: Link

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