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Keene Little : 3/25/2008 10:47:03 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

It wasn't much more than a doji day between the indices so the charts haven't changed much. Sticking with the DOW charts I posted during the day on Tuesday, the daily chart shows the potential sideways trading range that could continue into May (dark red price depiction): Link . The top of this pattern is near 12730 but it takes a break above 12800 to suggest the more bullish price path may be in play.

The 60-min chart shows the potential rising wedge pattern and calls for a rally up to the 12780 area: Link . A break below 12450 would be worrisome for bulls but it takes a break below last Wednesday's low near 12097 before confirming the top of the rally from last week is finished.

OI Technical Staff : 3/25/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 9:53:32 PM

YG up $7.30 @ $942.30 ... daily interval with the "Bailey Wave" (Andrews Pitchfork; Modified Schiff) and a conventional 11/20/07 to 3/17/08 retracement Link

Yesterday's MM I was looking for some downside follow through to $900-$882.50, but the dollar wouldn't cooperate today (Tuesday).

One thing could turn this around, and that's at 10:30 AM EDT with the EIA report.

Should crude oil show a build, might have oil falling, thus dollar rising.

If oil prices fall and unleaded steady, refiners could be a rock'n.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 9:45:37 PM

YM off 26 at 12,489

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 9:45:08 PM

$/Yen 99.82 -0.145%

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 9:41:41 PM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) ... down 111 points, or -0.88% at 12,634.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 9:23:48 PM

May Unleaded vs May Crude (relative strength/crack) Daily Interval bar chart with some TSO/VLO benchmarks Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 9:11:27 PM

$GASO vs. $WTIC ... 0.50 box chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 9:10:19 PM

Nymex Energy Futures at this Link

Today's trade and last couple have the look that traders are expecting steady, or inventory build for crude, but draw in unleaded.

5DyNet% unleaded/oil crack spread much improved and trending positive for the refiners. Has really closed widened at 20DyNet% from a week, or two ago.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 8:59:10 PM

Major Global Equity Indices, Currency, USO, GLD and $HUI.X at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 8:51:45 PM

Humph ... As of its Tuesday close, Nikkei-225 -16.7% YTD. Yen +10.5% YTD vs. $

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 8:49:39 PM

Japan: Feb Trade Surplus +0.9% Y/Y; Expected +16.8%
Feb Unadjusted Trade Surplus Y970.0B
Feb Exports +8.7% On Year
Feb Imports +10.1% On Year
Feb Asia Trade Surplus Y922.2B; +104.8% Y/Y
Feb US Trade Surplus Y696.9B; -13.3% Y/Y
Japan's China Trade Deficit Goes To Surplus In Feb; Y1.3B

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 8:32:23 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 5:06:13 PM

DXY 72.15 -1.09% (30-minute delayed) ... but a new session low.

Jane Fox : 3/25/2008 4:48:41 PM

Economic Reports on the docket tomorrow include:

7:00a.m. MBA Mortgage Refinancing Index. Previous: -4.6%.

8:30a.m. Feb Durable Goods Orders. Expected: +0.8%. Previous: -5.1%.

10:00a.m. Feb New Home Sales. Expected: -2.2%. Previous: -2.8%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 4:39:31 PM

CNBC guest mentioning US equity inverse tie with $/yen.

Even as "obvious" is the more negative impact on foreign bourses.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 4:29:08 PM

I'd say the major averages held up rather well today considering DXY off 1.00% from this time yesterday.

Keene Little : 3/25/2008 4:29:00 PM

The DOW 60-min chart on my last post (4:05 PM) isn't working so here it is again: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 4:26:30 PM

$/yen 100.11 ... ym 12,514

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 4:17:29 PM

Sounded like T. Boone changed his mind today. Just above where he was bearish several weeks ago.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 4:15:40 PM

TSO $29.88 -1.71% ...

VLO $48.10 -3.95% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 4:15:05 PM

May Unleaded (rb08k) settled up $0.0384, or +1.46% at $2.6710.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 4:11:42 PM

Nymex May Crude (cl08k) settled up $0.36, or +0.36% at $101.22.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 4:06:58 PM

Pretty tight range for the DXY today though ... 72.55-72.18.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 4:04:57 PM

When I profiled the YM short, the $/yen was under the 50-pd. Just had the stop a little too tight.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 4:04:01 PM

I'd cover it here at 12,525 ... daily pivot and 61.8% dynamic may hold.

$/Yen just under your 50-pd SMA on 5-minute intervals.

Keene Little : 3/25/2008 4:05:04 PM

Heading into the close, here's an update to the DOW's 60-min chart: Link Unless it drops back below 12450 I'm leaning towards further upside tomorrow and hopefully see an eventual move up to the 12780 area now (little closer Fib correlation there). SPX 1380 remains the upside target. Much above DOW 12800 and I'd then say the bulls have taken the ball and are running with it.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 3:53:22 PM

There's nothing much more to be said. The SPX and OEX both appear to be producing either doji or near-doji at or just under significant resistance that has been in place most of this year. That means that some were selling into the gain. Buyers and sellers were about equally mixed, neither yet overwhelming the other. This is one spot at which we should all be watching for rollover potential. The OEX, leading the way, has already hit that descending trendline while the SPX is still under it. Be aware of the potential for either further consolidation or an actual pullback tomorrow. Nothing precludes a strong gain, either, and if you think something does, take a look at the last few weeks when strong gains follow big losses and vice versa. However, in more typical times, setups like this one are more likely to be followed by either that sideways consolidation or an actual pullback.

Jane Fox : 3/25/2008 3:51:24 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rallied nearly 2% Tuesday, gaining as weakness in the U.S. dollar boosted demand for the precious metal.

Gold for April delivery rose $16.30, or 1.8%, to end at $935 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"Some investors and speculators feel that the sell-off is overdone and the metal may have become oversold in the short term," said Mark O'Byrne, executive director at Gold & Silver Investments Ltd.

"While there may be further consolidation at these levels, gold will likely resume its upward march sooner than expected," he said in a research note.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 3:46:03 PM

You bugger you.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 3:45:10 PM

YM short stopped alert! ... 12,547

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 3:43:39 PM

YM short alert! ... here at 12,540. Stop 12.547. Target 12,500

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 3:38:29 PM

VIX.X 25.37

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 3:38:21 PM

VLO $48.09 -3.97% ... VLO-FX $2.60 x $2.70. VLO-IX $4.20 x $4.30

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 3:34:55 PM


DJ- Iraqi forces clash with Shiite militias in the southern oil port of Basra as a security plan to clamp down on violence between rival militia factions in the region began. Separately, a local official says fighting hasn't affected oil exports.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 3:34:06 PM

The closing of the bond market certainly didn't signal a change in trend this afternoon. Do remember the market-on-close orders coming at about 3:40, however, as that can be another turning point in the markets. If you've decided to exit all or a portion of your position by the close, begin tightening your stops.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 3:33:55 PM

FXI $134.04 +4.43% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 3:33:27 PM


DJ- Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, the country's biggest lender by assets, says its 2007 net profit rose 65% on rapid expansion in its intermediary business. Bank of China's 2007 net profit jumps 31% on higher interest and non-interest incomes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 3:31:56 PM


DJ- Chief Executive John Stumpf, who has helped the firm navigate the credit crisis in good shape, says the current environment presents opportunities and the firm would consider doing a deal in conjunction with the Federal Reserve, the San Francisco Business Times reports.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 3:31:17 PM


DJ- Botechnology company boosts its 2008 earnings guidance to a range of $3.15 to $3.25 a share from its previously stated guidance of $2.70 to $2.80 a share, citing seed sales and gains made by its herbicide business.

MON $114.53 +9.85% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 3:26:53 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 3:20:04 PM

Origin Agritech (SEED) $6.66 +40.88% ... alert!

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 3:13:40 PM

We're moving into the last hour of trading, so it's not too soon to begin thinking about your end-of-day decisions. The OEX has been outperforming the SPX by some measures over the last couple of weeks, so I thought I'd show a daily chart of the OEX rather than the SPX: Link That annotation was supposed to read "end-of-day run."

Keene Little : 3/25/2008 3:00:14 PM

The bulls held the line, literally. This remains one ugly rally (very choppy with overlapping highs and lows) but so far the bears haven't been able to take the ball away from the bulls. But a break of higher lows would be a sell signal (just not sure for how much selling).

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 2:49:59 PM

Treasuries look to finish with yields fractions lower. 13-week the exception.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 2:48:43 PM

Euro, yen and pound all squared up at their 21-pd SMA's on 5-minute interval.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 2:35:28 PM

FXI $134.01 +4.40% ... FAH-DE are now $7.10 x $7.40

Keene Little : 3/25/2008 2:35:01 PM

The bulls need to hold it here otherwise they'll lose their uptrend line. DOW 12500 needs to hold or else we'll be into at least a pullback correction of the rally off this morning's low, possibly more.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 2:34:50 PM

Major Global Equity Index, Currency, USO, GLD and HUI.X as of last night's closes. Link

Hang Seng plays some "catch up" today, but I just don't like the lack of follow through with the green back.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 2:33:53 PM

So far, the USDJPY remains below the 100.37-100.50 potential resistance level mentioned earlier.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 2:30:35 PM

All three can tend to trade versus dollar action.

SWC less likely in my opinion, and maybe more with what is going on in S. Africa (power)

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 2:29:35 PM

PBR $102.79 +5.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 2:29:03 PM

GG $39.81 +6.72% ...

SWC $16.88 +2.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 2:27:37 PM

FXI's 21-pd SMA on 60-minute interval is down at $128.29.

Exiting at a $7.60 bid is a "when in doubt, get out" at take that gain.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 2:26:25 PM

$/Yen 100.25

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 2:26:13 PM

USO $80.79 +0.66% ...

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 2:25:12 PM

This has been such a labored climb off the low of the day for the SPX and OEX. Of course, if moves hadn't swung so far either direction across recent periods, the 15-minute charts would be showing this as a zoom up the 15-minute 9-ema. Instead, the recent moves have turned this into a labored-looking climb in perspective. Be watchful as there's the potential now for a climb up into potentially strong resistance by the close with a consolidation-type candle produced after the recent gains. That suggests either further consolidation or an actual pullback is next, if that should happen.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 2:24:23 PM

Swing trade exit alert! ... for the one (1) iShares Xinhua China 25 FXI April $135 Call (FAH-DE) at the bid of $7.60.

FXI $134.30 +4..63% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 2:21:44 PM

USD/Yen 100.26 ... 60-minute interval chart would have $/Yen challenging its 21-pd SMA (100.36) from underneath.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 2:20:15 PM

Somebody's crossing some FAH-DE at $7.60. Be alert as FXI approaches 0% conventional.

Jane Fox : 3/25/2008 2:20:02 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The long-term financial health of the nation's two biggest entitlement programs improved slightly from a year ago because of higher expected immigration, but remains very fragile, according to the annual report from the trustees of the Social Security and Medicare programs released on Tuesday. Despite long-term deficits, both programs will be able to pay all promised benefits for at least 10 more years without any changes in their dedicated funding source from payroll taxes. Because health costs are rising so quickly and because the program already relies on significant funds from general revenues, the Medicare program is in worse shape than Social Security.

Jane Fox : 3/25/2008 2:18:17 PM

Here are the jtHMA charts of the US $ against a basket of currencies (British pound, Yen, Aussie $, Etc). Both monthly and weekly charts are red so we are looking for a rally to sell. We identify that rally when the daily turns green and a sell triggers when the both the 120 and 60 turn back red. As you can see the daily has indeed turned green and the 60 minute has turned back red but you would not have entered a short because the 120 minute never did confirm the 60 minute. This is just as well because the 60 minute has now turned back green. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 2:14:23 PM

TRAN 4,925 +1.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 2:14:03 PM

Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) 951.96 +0.99% ... 38.2% conventional.

Jane Fox : 3/25/2008 2:13:36 PM

SPX has confirmed a 'W' bottom, which is bullish. However, earlier we saw a reverse head and shoulders form that did not pan out. Albeit the reverse head and shoulder never did confirm before it was negated. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 1:58:34 PM

Have just-in-case profit-protecting plans in place for an SPX test of the 1361.80-1362 region and an OEX test of the 633.07-633.15 region. I wouldn't be surprised to see those pierced, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see those indices close at or below those levels, and then we see.

Keene Little : 3/25/2008 1:56:14 PM

The DOW is now 100 points off its low and back to the flat line. It seems like it's been a lot of work by the bulls to get it here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 1:47:13 PM

GBP/USD 2.000

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 1:46:55 PM

EUR/USD 1.5615

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 1:46:35 PM

USD/JPY 100.12

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 1:46:03 PM

13-week ($IRX.X) up 25.5 bp at 1.270%

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 1:45:30 PM

US 4-Week Bills: 1.500%; 23.30% At High

DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $24.00 billion in four-week bills at Tuesday's auction at a high rate of 1.500%. The Treasury received bids totaling $67.75 billion and accepted $24.00 billion, including $326.18 million of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 99.883333 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 1.523%. The Treasury also sold $1.00 billion of bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis. Tenders to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis totaled $1.00 billion. The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.82, Treasury said. Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 23.30%. The Federal Reserve made no purchases for its own account. When the auction was announced, the Fed held $10.61 billion of maturing bills, and in Monday's auction the Fed didn't buy any three- and six-month bills. The median rate was 1.280%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate. Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 1.150%. Accepted indirect bids for the four-week bill were 29.8% of the total competitive amount, down from 44.7% in last week's four-week bill auction. The high rate was up from 0.520% at the previous four-week bill auction. The high rate was the highest since the rate of 1.800% at the four-week bill auction on March 11, 2008. The issue is dated March 27 and matures on April 24, 2008. The CUSIP number on the four-week bill is 912795D99.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 1:41:59 PM

If the OEX continues climbing--not promised but possible--it faces potentially strong resistance at 632.84-633 on 15-minute closes.

Keene Little : 3/25/2008 1:37:55 PM

This morning's lows are key levels for now--any break below those and it could spell trouble for the bulls.

Keene Little : 3/25/2008 1:37:02 PM

It's ugly but it's still rallying. Short term you could probably short a break of the uptrend line from last Thursday but for now I'd stick with the bulls. I'm hoping we'll see the DOW make it up to the 12750 area by tomorrow. The Fib projection to SPX 1380 is still a good target for now, as long as the bulls can keep this ugly looking rally going.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 1:34:00 PM

If the SPX continues rising, it has potentially strong resistance now up to about 1361.50 on 15-minute closes. If it reached that and particularly if it pierced that, it would obviously be printing a higher high than yesterday's. However, if it can't maintain levels above that, then it actually looks a little weaker on a Keltner basis. Yesterday, it created a breakout situation.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 1:26:28 PM

The USDJPY is 100.10, moving sideways under resistance. No clues here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 1:14:36 PM

01:00 Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 3/25/2008 1:14:21 PM

The DOW and SPX are sliding up their uptrend lines from last Thursday's low. Today's price pattern is hardly inspiring for bulls but by the same token it's not breaking down, at least not yet. SPX 10-min chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 1:10:40 PM

Just as I suspected, as noted in my 12:35:04 post, the SPX's climb above the 15-minute 9-ema didn't mean much, at least so far. The SPX is still climbing off the day's low. However, it's doing it with small-bodied alternating red and green candles. So far, this climb isn't illustrative of wild bullishness, to say the least, but it is indicative of a need to digest already made gains and decide on next direction. Some are buying and some are selling, and we have to see who wins out. The SPX has the potential to rise to 1362.05 where next strong potential resistance is, if the 1354.50-ish resistance is breached. That resistance isn't breached yet, of course. If the SPX does rise toward 1362 and can't break above that level on 15-minute closes, it's actually weaker according to Keltner evidence than it was yesterday.

Jane Fox : 3/25/2008 1:00:08 PM

The jtHMA charts have given you a buy signal on the Gold futures charts. Link

Jane Fox : 3/25/2008 12:57:33 PM

Here is a link to the report. Link

Jane Fox : 3/25/2008 12:57:05 PM

Headlines on MarketWatch.com are, 'Consumer's economic expectations at low point since early 1970s.' Is it time to get the heck out of Dodge or time to load up the truck? There is a report you may want to read. It is called Consumer Confidence and Stock Returns done by Kenneth Fisher and Dept of Finance at Santa Clara University. For those of you who do not have the time nor the initiative to read the whole thing the summary is Consumer Confidence tells you how the stock market has performed in recent weeks but tells you little about the future. This study found, 'Low consumer confidence is followed by high stock market returns more often than was followed by low stock market returns.'

Keene Little : 3/25/2008 12:48:54 PM

Adding to Jane's post on gold funds, there are also new funds out for those who want to short gold. DGZ is a short fund and DZZ is a double short fund. Both have only been trading for about a month so you'll obviously want to do chart analysis on GLD or the gold futures contract.

Jane Fox : 3/25/2008 12:50:03 PM

Here is a picture of the Gold held in trust for GLD. Link

Jane Fox : 3/25/2008 12:44:16 PM

Just got an email from Denise.

Is there a gold etf one can go long gold on and just hold awhile?

Yup Denise the ETF I talk about all the time GLD. It is an ETF based on Gold Bullion. streetTRACKS Gold Shares ('Gold Shares') offer investors a new, innovative, relatively cost efficient and secure way to access the gold market. Gold Shares are intended to offer investors a means of participating in the gold bullion market without the necessity of taking physical delivery of gold, and to buy and sell that interest through the trading of a security on a regulated stock exchange. The introduction of Gold Shares is intended to lower many of the barriers, such as access, custody, and transaction costs, that have prevented some investors from investing in gold.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 12:35:04 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1349.87; the OEX's, about 626.50. Bulls want to see that hold as support on 15-minute closes, but I honestly don't know how good a benchmark that is today with the choppy price action. Isn't it strange that now we consider a day's range of about 13.60 for the SPX to be a tight range or at least that's how it looks even on our intraday charts?

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 12:32:31 PM

From what I saw in last night's session with dollar, oil and gold, was that gold certianly traded higher on dollar weakness, very much with $/Yen. Oil didn't, until today's regular session, but with $/yen hovering at session lows, oil traders didn't want to take a chance at the 02/20/08 settlement benchmark.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 12:31:43 PM

The USDJPY is now 100.21. Potentially significant resistance may exist at about 100.37-100.50, so equity bulls want to see that exceeded. Until it is, watch for rollover potential in that zone.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 12:25:28 PM

DXY 72.27 -0.92% ... has been sitting on its WKLY Pivot and 19.1% conventional (10/09/07 relative high to 3/16-3/17 low).

Then we had the USO $80.76 +0.62% trade as low as $79.40 and almost give us a look at that 02/20/08 Expiration close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 12:22:27 PM

Just noting from some intra-day charts that yesterday's regular session high for the YM was WKLY R1 (12,613).

Today's high for the FXI $133.40 +4.00% has been its WKLY R1 ($133.66).

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 12:18:46 PM

I'm glad I clarified my previous posts by saying there was no clarity! There still isn't as is obvious by the sideways trading. I learned long ago that when I couldn't find clarity on the charts not to try to push through to a prediction, because the prediction might be being made by that very lack of clarity. Tell yourself that it's not a failure not to find a prediction of next direction but rather a sign that there might not be a next direction that will quickly appear. Certainly hasn't this morning. We'll keep watching and see if something sets up.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 12:17:30 PM

Good explanation why Case-Shiller and OFHEO readings so different Link

Keene Little : 3/25/2008 11:48:43 AM

My previous DOW 60-min chart had the wrong EW label at the top of the rising wedge. This is the correct chart: Link

Keene Little : 3/25/2008 11:41:48 AM

Last night I posted a daily chart of the DOW that shows the possibility for a large sideways consolidation into May (dark red price path: Link ) and this 60-min chart shows the potential for a rising wedge that's playing out (it also explains why price action has been full of 3-wave corrective price action): Link

The Fib projections inside this rising wedge coincide with the top of the wedge pattern and the top of the sideways consolidation pattern, shown on the daily chart, in the 12730-12750 area. This is just speculation at the moment but it calls for another rally leg and if met with bearish divergences it would then set up a short play. A drop much below 12400 would negate the rising wedge pattern and be a break of mulitple support.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 11:37:57 AM

11:00 Internals Link

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 11:36:04 AM

We've now seen two SPX 15-minute closes above the 9-ema, but they were so minimally above it that I waited until there were two. The possibility of a push up toward 1353.50 and maybe even 1357-1360 exists, but the SPX will encounter potentially strong resistance there on 15-minute closes if it does. I mentioned earlier the possibility that the SPX could just nudge that resistance higher all day as it pushed up toward 1369-1371, but nothing is clear right now. I'd consider the possibility that the 1360 level will hold for now on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 11:33:47 AM

USDJPY now 100.17, attempting to push up through gathered resistance. Let's see if it holds as I'm still not seeing a lot of clarity in the markets right now.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 11:23:24 AM

The USDJPY has been trending down since last night during the overnight session. As I type, it's at 99.91, testing former support on 30-minute closes. Without a strong push higher, the USDJPY looks vulnerable to lower prices again, perhaps as low as 98.48. That, of course, is higher than last week's low, but it wouldn't be good for U.S. equities.

Jane Fox : 3/25/2008 11:16:56 AM

Look at the bullishness first thing this morning and how the sellers have taken over this market. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 11:16:02 AM

The SPX tests its 15-minute 9-ema, now at about 1347.73. It's pierced it this 15-minute period, but it doesn't appear that it's closing much above it.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 11:10:02 AM

Japan has still not settled on a new leader for the Bank of Japan. That means that we could still seem some currency fluctuations.

In other news, the DBJ, the Development Bank of Japan, is in talks with EBank to help the bank, the third in Japan to approach the DBJ for help after suffering subprime losses. If the deal goes through, the DBJ may issue debt securities to the tune of 10 billion yen to help EBank boost its depleted capital base, reporter Kenji Kawase of Nikkei Net reports.

When the subprime crisis first hit, I heard reports speculating that Japan's institutions were more careful, stodgier, if you will, and unlikely to be greatly impacted by the subprime problems because they took fewer chances. That doesn't appear to be true.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 10:56:30 AM

The SPX is still hung up between the potential resistance on 15-minute closes at the 9-ema, now near 1346.70, and the potential support on 15-minute closes at the 45-ema, now near 1342. No outcome is predicted yet.

Keene Little : 3/25/2008 10:40:55 AM

Last Wednesday's high for the DOW, near 12460, is breaking but lower support exists at its broken downtrend line from December near 12400.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 10:37:18 AM

I'm not the only one who can't tell where indices are likely to go next, am I? Buyers and sellers appear to be stumped, too, with 15-minute candles moving sideways. However, as this happens, the SPX continues to print 15-minute closes beneath the 15-minute 9-ema. If the 1342-ish support is lost on 15-minute closes, that test of the next support level, currently at 1326.60-1329.94, increases.

Keene Little : 3/25/2008 10:37:08 AM

DOW dropping to new lows so it's not encouraging here for the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 10:36:42 AM

US Home Prices Drop 11.4% in January ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 10:34:42 AM

DJ- James Bullard Named New St Louis Federal Reserve President

Keene Little : 3/25/2008 10:29:16 AM

SPX has bounced at support but it's not that impressive yet. A break of this morning's low could be followed by stronger selling but so far support is holding.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 10:27:58 AM

DJ- Euro Strengthens Above $1.5600; Dollar Down More Vs. Yen

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 10:20:22 AM

Fitch - 99% Of Maturing Fixed-Rate CMBS Refinanced

DJ- Despite the credit crunch and liquidity pressures in the capital markets, 99% of maturing fixed-rate mortgages were refinanced in recent months, Fitch Ratings said.

The ratings agency said 3,354 U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities fixed-rate loans with a balance of $21.4 billion have been refinanced since Aug. 1, when the credit crunch began.

"The diversity of property type and geographic distribution of recent refinancing activity shows that debt capital is still widely available for commercial real estate," said Susan Merrick, Fitch's head of U.S. CMBS.

Fitch attributed the spate of refinancings amid a restrictive lending environment to "low leverage and high existing coupons." New lenders are typically insurance companies and regional banks, the agency noted.

Fitch said refinancing activity has continued at a "strong and steady pace" in 2008, citing the payoff of 1,273 loans in January and February. "The fact that $8.2 billion of U.S. CMBS loans have already refinanced this year shows the commercial real-estate market debt continues to function so far this year," senior director Adam Fox said. The agency said it expects that $28.5 billion of CMBS fixed-rate loans coming due over the rest of 2008 "in the transactions it monitors will continue to be easily refinanced."

Most of the maturing loans were 10-year fixed-rate loans with the highest concentration in the 1997 through 1999 vintages. By property type, 927 loans backed by multifamily assets experienced the most refinance activity with $5 billion, or 23%, refinanced during the last eight months.

This was followed by 744 retail loans at $4.7 billion (22%), 218 hotel loans at $4.5 billion (21%) and 449 office loans at $3.3 billion (16%).

There were $3.7 billion of maturities in New York (18%), $3.3 billion in California (15%), $1.9 billion in Florida (9%) and $1.6 billion in Texas (7.8%).

Keene Little : 3/25/2008 10:13:41 AM

SPX has dropped down to last Wednesday's high (1342) which is also the broken downtrend line from December. A successful test here would be bullish.

Jane Fox : 3/25/2008 10:10:01 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Continuing its downward slide, U.S. consumer confidence fell in March, the Conference Board reported Tuesday, as expectations hit a 35-year-low, reaching levels not seen since the oil embargo and Watergate. The March consumer confidence index fell to 64.5 from a revised reading of 76.4 in February. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a March reading of 73.3. "Looking ahead, consumers' outlook for business conditions, the job market and their income prospects is quite pessimistic and suggests further weakening may be on the horizon," said Lynn Franco, director of consumer research at the private Conference Board.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 10:09:17 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1349.90. Those with bullish hopes want the SPX to spring back above that and start maintaining closes above it again. Potentially significant resistance layers above that, but it's possible for the SPX to continue climbing toward that 1369-1371 area underneath that resistance, nudging it gradually higher. It's also possible for the SPX to roll over here and drop down toward 1326-1326. I'm just not getting a clear picture of which is most likely, and I think that's because charts are illustrating the confusion that all feel, not because I'm unable to read them. When charts don't give us enough evidence, we need to be particularly careful about how much money we put down on our bets.

Jane Fox : 3/25/2008 10:08:52 AM

The VIX is supporting the bears and is making new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 10:08:30 AM

Richmond Fed: Mar Manufacturing Index +6 Vs. Feb -5
Mar Mfg. Shipments +13 Vs. Feb -4
Mar Services Revenue Index -5 Vs Feb +1
Mar Retail Revenue Index -30 Vs Feb -25

Jane Fox : 3/25/2008 10:08:28 AM

AD line is currently -171 but has got to a high of 836.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 10:05:14 AM

Below the levels mentioned in my 10:02:44 post, the next potential Keltner support levels for the SPX and OEX on 15-minute closes are 1326-1328.40 for the SPX and 617-619 for the OEX. Tests of those levels are certainly possible and maybe even edging toward likely, but we have to wait out this post-release reaction to see.

Jeff Bailey : 3/25/2008 10:03:50 AM

March Consumer Confidence 64.5 Vs. Feb 76.4

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 10:02:44 AM

Next potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes for the SPX is 1342.35. For the OEX, it's 625.55, with the OEX obviously just gapping beneath that. There are also obviously many minutes left in this 15-minute period.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 9:58:35 AM

The A/D line rose up to test that mid-channel resistance I'd mentioned earlier, reaching a high of 914 before being knocked back sharply. It's at 291 as I type. I'm not getting a strong prediction from this or other charts I'm scanning except that the A/D line remains in the bearish half of its channel and could not break through to create a more bullish aspect. It has not reached a new low yet, though, and so may mostly be presenting a picture of churning behavior.

Keene Little : 3/25/2008 9:57:22 AM

As I suspected, the spike up has now been reversed. It looks like someone was testing the waters to to see if follow-through buying would happen, or they spiked the market up to create some liquidity to sell into. Either case, it's bearish that it didn't hold.

Jane Fox : 3/25/2008 9:50:31 AM

Here are your overnight charts. I live on the West Coast so getting up early is very early here and I slept in a tad so these charts are late. Sorry.

Notice now most of the futures markets tagged their respective previous day highs overnight . Link

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 9:50:03 AM

The TRAN tends to be a good indicator index for the SPX, OEX and Dow. It, too, rose up to test yesterday's high but has not yet exceeded it. That high was 4898.38. The TRAN is currently 4889.76. Watching how it reacts after testing the high may give us further clues or at least corroborate what's happening on those other indices.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 9:48:28 AM

Studying the RUT as a barometer, I see that it's close to testing if not quite yet exceeding yesterday's high. That intraday high was 705.12. The RUT is currently 703.9. Watching this front-running index may tell us something about others.

Keene Little : 3/25/2008 9:46:17 AM

Getting another sharp spike back up, especially in techs. These always look manufactured to me--someone gooses the futures to try to stimulate some buying (short covering or otherwise) and if no buying follows the spike reverses right back down. Let's see if that's what happens here.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 9:42:54 AM

So far, the SPX still balances above potential support near 1348 (actually 1347.46 on my charts). So far, so good for those with bullish hopes, but I'd be careful about letting my hopes get too ebullient today. While I see the possibility of a gain, perhaps even up to 1369-1371, there's also the possibility of at least a stalling, if not worse, any time now. I'm not the only one who can spot that descending trendline off the 1/08, 1/10, 2/26 and 2/27 highs, and some market participants may begin bailing ahead of that trendline. We'll just have to see whether those who have faith that this is "it," the long-awaited relief rally, and who keep buying can buy up all the stock from those who are bailing ahead of that trendline.

Jane Fox : 3/25/2008 9:39:27 AM

Dateline WSJ - A closely watched gauge of U.S. home prices shows record declines continued into the new year as the nation's deep housing slump intensified.

Single-family home prices in 10 major metropolitan areas in January were down 11.4% from a year earlier and down 2.3% from December, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes, released Tuesday by credit-rating firm Standard & Poor's.

David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Standard & Poor's index committee, said, "Unfortunately, it does not look like early 2008 is marking any turnaround in the housing market" after a declining 2007. "No markets seem to be completely immune from the housing crisis."

The Case-Shiller data aim to track the price path of single-family homes located in a particular metropolitan area by matching price pairs for thousands of individual houses.

Charlotte, N.C., was the lone city in the survey in January to avoid a year-over-year price decline. Before January, Charlotte, Portland, Ore., and Seattle had been the only three metro areas measured by the index still not seeing drops.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 9:36:15 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line opens in the lower or bearish half of the Keltner channels. It's in the middle of that lower half, equally distant from next support and next resistance. It looks about equally likely that it will drop to about -620 as that it will climb to about +960 to +1150. It's dropping now and is +69.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 9:34:39 AM

Next support for the SPX below that being tested is potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes near 1342.

Linda Piazza : 3/25/2008 9:33:30 AM

The SPX is testing potential support near 1348 this morning, but those with bullish hopes want a 15-minute close above the 9-ema now at 1351.87.

Jane Fox : 3/25/2008 9:32:10 AM

Dateline WSJ - A glut of foreclosed homes of historic proportions is starting to drive down U.S. home prices faster as lenders put more properties on the market and buyers show signs of interest.

The ability of America's lenders to manage this fire sale will be crucial to determining how long the housing market stays in the dumps -- and how quickly blighted neighborhoods can heal. The oversupply is severe: In some major markets, including Las Vegas and San Diego, foreclosure-related sales have accounted for more than 40% of all sales in recent months.

On Monday, new data suggested that pressures like these are starting to drive prices low enough to attract some buyers back into the market. Sales of previously occupied homes jumped 2.9% in February from the month before, the National Association of Realtors said, the first increase since July.

The median price dropped 8.2% from a year earlier to $195,900, the biggest drop recorded by the Realtors in the current slump.

Keene Little : 3/25/2008 9:21:59 AM

Equity futures had a strong spike up (about 11 ES points) from the 6:00 AM low, peaking at 7:30 AM and then gave most of it back just as quickly. I'm not sure yet what news might have caused that. At this point it looks like the cash market will open up flat.

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