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Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 1:15:53 AM

IWM 15-minute interval chart (to cover 3.5 weeks time) with QCharts WKLY Pivot levels turned on Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 1:04:42 AM

QCharts' derived IWM weekly Pivot Levels are ... $62.19, $64.86, Piv= $66.89, $69.55, $71.59

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:51:56 AM

IWM Daily Interval bar chart with some of the same date benchmarks I've been mentioning. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:43:55 AM

Dang it! Just lost the QCharts WEEKLY Pivot Levels at the midnight hour. Mid-point of "Bailey Wave" right at $70.50 on IWM. Lower end at $66.00. 19.1% conventional at $68.14. 38.2% up at $72.097 (not willing to risk that this point, and INTERNALS are strong enough to get it there).

Again... dollar weakness and oil's rise enough of a reason.

IWM like the RUT.X resting on WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:38:14 AM

RUT.X NH/NL (since 2/01/08) Link

Explanation: "Revrs" would be a 3-box reversal lower from a higher inflection, or measure. At tonight's close (I don't get RUT.X until hours after the regular session close) the 5-day NH/NL ratio would be 50.6% (50.00% on a PnF 2-point box chart). It would take a 26.00% measure for the 10-day NH/NL ratio to reverse back lower from tonight's closing measure of 33.33% (32.00% on the chart).

"Buy" indicates that the 5-day NH/NL ratio EXCEEDED a prior high (see 2/29/08 33.2%, or 32.00% on chart). The 10-day NH/NL ratio also gave a "buy" on 3/25/08 as 28.6% higher than 2/27/08 inflection high measure of 27.3%, or 26.00 on chart.

Now, the "sell" would be a reading needed for each 5-day and 10-day NH/NL ratio to FALL BELOW a recent inflection low.

See HOW LOW they would need to go?

Remember! These charts are bound by 0% and 100%.

So, we can NOT currently DOWNSIDE TARGET a new low in the scope of this. Not with much reasoning anyway.

See column AU on 03/10/08 at a DAILY ratio of 0.5%? How much "lower" can you go to 0%? Very OVERSOLD and great time for BEARS to take profits.

Strong currently?

Yes! So tight stops.

Know where your LEVELS are at! (conventional and QUARTERLY, MONTHLY and WEEKLY Pivot Levels). Even you "Bailey Wave"

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:02:04 AM

Primary "reasoning" for a short on small caps is IF oil continues higher and dollar continues lower, small caps may be "hurt" more by higher oil. May not "benefit" as much from weaker dollar as the LARGER cap/multinationals.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 11:58:53 PM

Russell futures (mr08m) off $0.50 at $697.80.

DXY steady at 71.47.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 11:57:20 PM

ProShares products Link

RWM would be 100% "bear long" as another alternative too.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 11:53:41 PM

IWM $69.64 -0.82%

TWM $79.40 +1.59%

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 11:52:20 PM

Email Question: ... Iwm is a long RUT fund. Are you sure to short it? did you mean TWM?

Yes, short 1/2 position in the IWM.

I didn't think of it at the time, but a "long" on the TWM (200% inverse RUT.X/IWM) could have also been profiled for retirement accounts that utilize shorting. Since 200%, then "1/2 position = $5k" would be "1/4 * 200% = 1/2 position) for the TWM.

Should have profiled the TWM for those with retirement accounts that may not be able to short ETF's outright.

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 11:40:34 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

The stock market looked awfully weak today and gives me the impression it's getting ready for another leg down. But I'm still holding onto the idea that we're going to get another leg up, as long as Wednesday's low holds (or at least nothing more than a minor new low). The SPX 60-min chart shows another leg up to an upside target of 1380 before tipping back over: Link

As shown on the SPX daily chart, this fits in the larger sideways consolidation pattern that I think is playing out until proven otherwise (dark red): Link . The bad thing about this pattern is that it means more of the same ugly choppy no-follow-through price action that we've seen since January. Ugh.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:05:30 PM

DXY 71.35 and trading snug between WEEKLY S1 and MONTHLY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:02:58 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 3/26/2008 10:00:04 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 4:36:46 PM

IWM 1/2 position short is ... $69.82. Stop $71.00. Target $66.00.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 4:13:44 PM

USO $85.13 +4.49% ... "good gravy!"

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 4:12:37 PM

Pound/$ 2.0086

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 4:12:09 PM

Eur/$ 1.5836

Jane Fox : 3/26/2008 4:11:56 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow.

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. Expected: -8K. Previous: +22K.

8:30a.m. 4Q Final GDP. Previous: +0.6%.

8:30a.m. 4Q Corporate Profits. Previous: Unch.

10:00a.m. Feb Help-Wanted Index. Previous: 21.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 4:11:36 PM

$/yen 99.21

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 4:08:22 PM

If full position is $10K, then 1/2 = $5K.

$5k / $69.82 = 71 shares.

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 4:08:06 PM

My best advice is still to be long above today's low and short below. The sideways choppy price action for most of today sure looks like a bear flag to me.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 4:06:24 PM

Swing trade short alert! ... for 1/2 position in the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) at the bod of $69.92. Stop $61.00. Target $66.00.

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 4:04:47 PM

I have no firm opinion as to tomorrow's direction. This price action is just pure ugly.

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 3:50:32 PM

The DOW and SPX refuse to break below their broken downtrend lines from December. The bulls will say it's a successful test of the line and the bears will say it's just consolidating before breaking back down through it. I'm still hoping we'll get another leg up in order to finish the wave pattern for the rally from March 17th. A break to new lows would threaten that scenario but the bears wouldn't be back in control until a break below SPX 1295 (DOW 12097). SPX 60-min chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 3:42:27 PM

I'm just stopping in for a moment before I leave again. This reversal from the attempt to spike higher is, again, a bit concerning for those with bullish hopes. All day, the SPX has not behaved as the setup suggested it would, by reversing up within that possible bull flag, springing up from support that looked firm. Not sure what's going on, but I don't like it when the at-least-short-term bullish setup is there and it doesn't play out. Makes me think someone is dumping a bit of stock into any attempts to rise. I'm especially concerned when I see the similarities with the last time the daily triangle's upper boundary was approached, as set out in that 2:26:37 post. Those with bullish hopes don't want to see a repeat of that. We may have to wait until tomorrow's GDP and the reaction to determine whether we'll get sideways consolidation or that deep pullback that followed the February attempt. Make your end-of-day decisions accordingly, knowing you don't know yet what's going to happen.

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 3:32:10 PM

NDX and RUT holding up here (at least a little better) but DOW and SPX look to be in breakdown mode.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 3:19:04 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 3:15:33 PM

This market is just a stop-running machine.

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 3:14:39 PM

The bulls can't let this drop below the low near 2:45 PM otherwise the bounce is over.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 3:04:50 PM

Be long the "green machine!"

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 3:03:51 PM

Terex (TEX) $64.45 -0.86% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 3:03:28 PM

Caterpillar (CAT) alert! $77.45 +1.05% ... takes a look above its December highs.

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 3:03:11 PM

Now the bulls are talking. It's about time they kicked this into gear. The all-important test now--a program buying spike needs follow through. Without that it'll be back down to the lows.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 2:56:50 PM

I'm going to be gone the last hour of the day. My 2:26:37 post fairly well sets out my view. Remember the final GDP tomorrow morning, with its potential to move markets if it surprises big one direction or the other.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 2:54:58 PM

SPX potential resistance on 15-minute closes up to 1343.70; potential support, down to 1336. For the OEX, those numbers are 623.63 and 619.78. For now, both are just stuck between potentially strong support and almost as potentially strong resistance.

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 2:49:01 PM

Now this is where the bulls could take control. The quick pullback, if it's just a correction to the leg up the low just before 2:00 PM, should lead to another push higher which would be a very strong leg up. So buy any push back to a new high for this bounce. Otherwise the correction could be finished which will mean we'll head for new lows from here (so sell a breakdown to new lows). As always, watch out for whipsaws.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 2:47:19 PM

Remember as you begin making your end-of-day decisions later that we have the final GDP number tomorrow morning.

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 2:46:29 PM

NDX is a little stronger than the others here and it just tagged 1815.46 for two equal legs up in today's bounce. So be careful if you're long here--pull your stop up a little tighter now.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 2:36:37 PM

When I look at the daily chart and cast what's happening in the context of my expectations for today (consolidation with a small-bodied candle or an actual pullback), the action doesn't look too confounding. It looks to be about what would be expected. There a retest of the 30-sma (1334.19 currently) looked likely. What's next if the SPX should end up anywhere within the current range for the day by the close? If bulls are gaining strength, more consolidation appears most likely. If they're not . . . compare the three-candle setup now with that seen the last time the SPX approached the triangle resistance on the daily chart: Link

Tab Gilles : 3/26/2008 2:28:55 PM

Weekly EIA Report Link

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 2:17:36 PM

Got a nice little bounce going. This morning's lows have held so we've still got some bullish potential here. But watch for a minor new high above the bounce near 12:00 since we might only get an a-b-c bounce off this morning's low before turning back down and heading for new lows.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 2:13:54 PM

I'm confounded, because Keltner support still looks stronger than resistance on the SPX, which should have long ago suggested a pop higher. It was stronger on the OEX, too, or appeared so, yet the OEX was slipping below the 120-ema, with bulls not able or willing to capitalize on what looked to be firm support beneath them. Both are attempting bounces now, so we'll see what happens. Both test their 15-minute 9-ema's, with that at about 1340 for the SPX and 631.30 for the OEX.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 2:06:50 PM

The OEX is still looking worse than the SPX on a Keltner basis, which is a switch from the last couple of weeks. Although it's finding support at the descending trendline that's the bottom of the possible bull flag and barely above the low of the day, it's now forming 15-minute closes below the 120-ema, the bearish/bullish benchmark for the Keltner channels. That's a weakening. The OEX has not yet followed through by dropping hard to the downside, so perhaps we should consider the break of that support as tentative and not confirmed. Still, without a hard pop later, the OEX is beginning to look as if it's breaking through support that held earlier. That 120-ema is now 620.82.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 1:50:41 PM

TAKE-TWO REJECTS ELECTRONIC ARTS OFFER

DJ- Take-Two Interactive Software, publisher of the blockbuster 'Grand Theft Auto' franchise, tells shareholders not to back Electronic Arts' $2 billion takeover offer and says it would begin a review of alternatives that may include a merger.

TTWO $25.92 +0.38% ...

ERTS $49.00 -2.35% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 1:49:41 PM

HSBC Holdings (HBC) $81.13 -2.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 1:49:20 PM

DEUTSCHE BANK WARNS ON TARGETS

DJ- Bank issues a cautious outlook for the coming year, saying its ability to reach its pretax profit target this year could be threatened if market conditions and the global economy don't improve.

DB $113.39 -1.91% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 1:48:20 PM

SENATE PANEL SEEKS DETAILS ON BEAR DEAL

DJ- The top two members of the U.S. Senate Finance Committee have asked the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department for extensive details on JPMorgan Chase's deal to acquire Bear Stearns.

BSC $10.85 -0.82% ...

JPM $44.11 -4.23% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 1:46:51 PM

US HOUSEHOLD WEALTH RISES AS RETIREES AGE

DJ- Federal Reserve paper says retirees' age-adjusted wealth is increasing, not decreasing. Trend reflects precautionary saving and spending amid uncertainty about life spans, potential medical expenses and a desire to bequeath money.

Jane Fox : 3/26/2008 1:46:33 PM

AD volume is heading straight down and you never want to trade against this kind of trajectory but the VIX is not supporting the bearishness so the result is a very choppy market.

The markets will always be choppy when the internals do not match. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 1:46:04 PM

FGIC FALLS BELOW KEY CAPITAL LEVEL

DJ- After setting aside just over $800 million to pay expected subprime mortgage-related losses, bond insurer says it has fallen below legally required statutory capital levels, which means it must come up with a plan to raise money.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 1:45:04 PM

VIX.X 26.39 +2.60% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 1:44:51 PM

TOL $22.60 -5.63% ... TEP-FE $1.75 x $1.90 ; TEP-ET $0.55 x $0.65.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 1:43:31 PM

BEAZER SHARES FALL AS MOODY'S CUT CREDIT RATING

DJ- Builder's shares fall 10% as ratings agency cites lingering uncertainty over the extent of ultimate exposure to ongoing investigations of its mortgage-origination business, ambiguity over company's financial position, lawsuits.

BZH $9.06 -10.73% ...

Jane Fox : 3/26/2008 1:43:17 PM

Here are the overnight charts and as you can see all the markets are trading below overnight lows. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 1:42:40 PM

CITI SEEN TAKING $13.1B 1Q WRITE-DOWN

DJ- Oppenheimer triples its loss estimate for Citigroup 1Q to $1.15 a share, forecasting the bank could write down another $13.1 billion, and its outlook for the bank's assets remains grim.

C $22.00 -6.06% ...

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 1:41:13 PM

This morning's drop looked impulsive and it's been followed by a choppy corrective bounce (bear flag kind of thing) and that's what has me leaning bearish at the moment. But we could get another spike back up to complete a larger bounce. That's the reason I'm saying I'm not getting a strong sense about this market right now and that tells me to lay low until something clears up here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 1:37:32 PM

No thanks ... will stick with PHF from $7.40 on 3/18/08 and $0.075/month/share.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 1:36:36 PM

US 2-year Notes: 1.761%; 42.09% At High

DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $28.00 billion in two-year notes at Wednesday's auction at a high rate of 1.761%. The Treasury received bids totaling $68.41 billion and accepted $28.00 billion, including $567.74 million of noncompetitive tenders, up from $538.38 million in noncompetitive tenders accepted at the previous two-year note auction on Feb. 27. The Treasury received $125.00 million bids from foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis. The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.44, Treasury said. Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 42.09%. The dollar price was 99.978476 and the coupon rate was set at 1.75%. The median rate was 1.739%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate. Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 1.700%. Accepted indirect bids for the two-year note were 26.5% of the total, up from 19.7% in February. The high rate was down from 2.045% at the previous two-year note auction. The high rate was the lowest since 1.520% at the two-year note auction on March 24, 2004. The issue is dated March 31, and matures on March 31, 2010. The CUSIP number on the two-year notes is 912828HU7.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 1:23:37 PM

The SPX's and OEX's 15-minute 9-emas are still holding as resistance on 15-minute closes while support and resistance ring the SPX and OEX.

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 1:23:20 PM

I'm just not getting a strong sense about this market. While I'd like to see another rally leg I'm just not seeing enough evidence to give me a warm and fuzzy about it. If anything, today's price action is telling me we've got lower lows coming.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 1:21:18 PM

BIX.X 250.66 -4.30% ... sector loser ... WKLY Pivot here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 1:12:54 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 1:04:24 PM

The situation hasn't changed for the SPX or OEX in the last few minutes. Both are still being pressured lower by their 15-minute 9-ema's even while support appears to be firming beneath them. Typically when support appears to be this firm, prices break up through the 9-ema and test the next resistance, but that hasn't happened yet. That's a bit troubling for those with bullish hopes, but it's not conclusive yet.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 12:51:13 PM

Today's Global Econ. Calendar Link

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 12:48:25 PM

The pullback in the past hour is about to achieve two equal legs down and should hold here if there's to be more upside. It won't take much lower to break this morning's lows in which case all bullish bets would be off the table for now.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 12:32:20 PM

Potential support on 15-minute closes for the OEX layers down to 620.07. Resistance is first at the 9-ema, now at about 622.50, with that average pressuring the OEX lower. Next resistance is 623.94-624.91. Currently, support still looks a little stronger than resistance, but OEX bulls haven't been able to capitalize on that any better than SPX bulls have been, and that's a bit troublesome. The firming support and the test of the possible bull flag's supporting trendline should have been enough to pop the OEX higher again, at least up toward 624, but that obviously hasn't happened yet. It may still, but sustained 15-minute closes beneath 620 would look more bearish than anything has yet this morning.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 12:26:52 PM

For the SPX, potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes now layers down to about 1335.50. Potential resistance on 15-minute closes is first at the 15-minute 9-ema now near 1342.20, which is pressuring it lower, and then at about 1345.50. Support has been firming, but the SPX bulls haven't been able to capitalize on that yet and now resistance begins to firm just a little, too. The punch up toward 1345 doesn't seem quite so likely.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 12:17:02 PM

TSO $31.21 +4.45% ...

PBR $103.90 +1.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 12:15:32 PM

VIX.X 26.38 +2.56% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 12:15:21 PM

Swing trade filled alert! ... on the VLO-IJ at $6.00. VLO $49.42

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 12:10:02 PM

So far, the SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is holding as resistance, but a punch up to 1346 or so looks possible, too. Support down to 1335.88 (currently) appears to be firming a bit, but all judgments right now are subjective.

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 12:09:05 PM

The rise off the low looks choppy enough to say it's a bear flag which says this morning's low will be broken. But I've seen enough of these choppy moves lead to stronger moves to the upside so this morning's low remains a short term key level.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 12:01:03 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in VLO.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 12:00:47 PM

Swing trade call option alert! ... for one (1) of the Valero Energy VLO Sep $50 Calls (VLO-IJ) at a LIMIT price of $6.00.

VLO $49.57 +3.05% ... VLO-IJ are $5.90 x $6.20.

VLO-IX are $4.90 x $5.10.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 12:00:04 PM

Here's the expected 9-ema test on the SPX (11:26:55 post). That's now at about 1343.30 and the SPX is currently above it and could end the 15-minute period above it or pull back to or below it. Next potential Keltner resistance is now about 1346.40 on 15-minute closes. As mentioned earlier, bears should be aware that the intraday pattern from the last few days could be a bear flag, so you want to watch carefully and not let a bounce get too far if that's what it turns out to be. Bulls need to be aware of rollover potential. Sustained 15-minute closes benath about 1335.50 could result in sharper downturns.

Jane Fox : 3/26/2008 11:56:02 AM

That last post had the Gold jtHMA charts. Here are the Crude charts. Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2008 11:54:11 AM

jtHMA charts got us long crude on March 24th. Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2008 11:51:20 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - U.S. crude inventories remained unchanged at 311.8 million barrels in the week ending March 21, U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by energy information provider Platts expected an increase of 1.5 million barrels. After the data, crude-oil futures for April delivery surged $3.28, or 3.2%, to $104.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures were up less than $3 before the report. Gasoline supplies fell by 3.3 million barrels in the latest week, while distillate stocks fell by 2.2 million barrels, EIA reported.

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 11:28:02 AM

As long as this morning's low holds I like the upside potential. Break this morning's low and I like the short side.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 11:26:55 AM

We're in wait-and-see mode right now. The SPX is holding above support (1335.53) but also struggling with nearest resistance (1339.40) on 15-minute closes. The 9-ema is now 1343.12 and I do expect either sideways trading into that or else a pop up to test it at some time or another this weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 11:25:49 AM

XAL.X 25.93 -7.59% ... stuck its head above 0.00% conventional yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 11:25:16 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 4,778 -2.51% ... reverses back below 200-day SMA (see Monday's Wrap)

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 11:22:31 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2008 11:20:40 AM

5 minute MACD on the cash indexes shows bullish divergences; price making new daily lows but the MACD is not. It is always a good (if you are bullish that is) sign that all markets are building these divergences. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 11:04:54 AM

Got an upside alert on April unleaded at $2.78

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 11:03:05 AM

Getting a small bounce off potential support so the bulls need to make something of this. A turn back down to new lows could get nastier. One thing to keep in mind as we get closer to the end of the month is either window dressing (driving the market higher to make it look good for funds' books).

But we could see just the opposite due to hedge fund liquidations. There are rumors of a number of hedge funds in trouble who have to meet margin calls by the end of the month. Those margin calls would be met with lots of selling.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 11:02:03 AM

Various Refinery data, USO Price, DXY prices at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 11:01:08 AM

The OEX also held support near 620.68 on 15-minute closes and is attempting to rise up from that support. It's got potentially strong resistance at 622.90 and again at the 15-minute 9-ema now at 623.88.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 11:00:17 AM

The SPX closely approached that Keltner support now at 1335.38 and is springing up from it. Next resistance is now about 1340.58 on 15-minute closes, and that could be strong. The 15-minute 9-ema is now 1334.82. Bulls want the SPX to spring higher and start sustaining 15-minute closes above that 9-ema. Bears prefer that resistance, or, even better, the resistance at about 1340.58, hold on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:56:28 AM

EIA: Various Inventory Levels at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 10:51:54 AM

If we're going to see any kind of bull flag interpretation continue to have any validity at all, the SPX needs to hold support near its current 1337.72 level or at least at Keltner support now at 1335.35 on 15-minute closes. For the OEX, potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes and bull-flag trendline support converge at about 620.60, near the OEX's 620.41 current level. Too much below those and we have to give over to the pullback interpretation of the "consolidation or pullback" prediction for today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:50:34 AM

Last Friday (3/21/07) ... USO $81.30 ; DXY= 72.75

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:49:42 AM

On 08/03/07 USO= $56.44 ; DXY= 80.17

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 10:48:49 AM

Not holding yet. Next possible support is at the broken downtrend lines from December at 12377/1338.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:48:37 AM

That's the most since 08/03/2007.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:47:28 AM

My calculations have # Days Supply Crude Oil inching up to 21.5 days.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:44:42 AM

EIA: SPR no real change down 1,000 barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:43:45 AM

EIA: Heating Oil (>than 500ppm sulfer) down 1.29 million barrels.

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 10:42:55 AM

We did get a minor new low and the first downside price targets (for two equal legs down) were almost tagged by the DOW and SPX so it's possible we're about to put in a bottom here. Consider nibbling on a long if it looks like 12397/1339 will hold.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:42:22 AM

EIA: Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel down 1.367M Barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:41:37 AM

EIA: Weekly ULS Diesel Stockpiles down 1.068M barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:37:02 AM

EIA: US Refineries Ran At 82.2%

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 10:36:44 AM

Do remember the possibility that what we're seeing on the intraday charts this week is the formation of a large bull flag. I'm not suggesting that this is even a probability much less a certainty, but only that it's a possibility. If it is, then the channel trendlines would suggest that the 1338-ish level for the SPX and the 620.00-ish level for the OEX might be a level from which a bounce might be attempted. Just keep this in mind if you're in bearish positions.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:36:29 AM

EIA: US Distillate Stockpiles down 2.141M Bbls; Seen -1.6M bbls

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:35:42 AM

EIA: US Gasoline Stockpiles down 3.285M barrels; Seen -800K

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:35:06 AM

EIA: US Crude Oil Stockpiles up 88K bbls; Seen +1.7M.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 10:34:21 AM

The OEX is dropping toward potential Keltner support at 620.68 on 15-mintue closes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:33:22 AM

USO $83.41 +2.38% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:33:11 AM

XOM $86.17 +1.13%
CVX $85.05 +0.63%
COP $75.60 $75.51 +1.31%
SLB $85.00 +2.94%

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 10:32:02 AM

The SPX was stopped at that Keltner resistance that was 1346-1349.50, as I suspected it might be. It now has potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes now at 1341.45. If that doesn't hold, the next support is now at about 1335.20.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:31:51 AM

TSO $36.61 +2.44% ...

VLO $48.70 +1.24% ...

PBR $102.11 -0.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:30:42 AM

Last Week's Various EIA Inventory Levels at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2008 10:23:26 AM

AD line has hit a low of -1196 but is now "only" -966.

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 10:16:20 AM

Getting a bounce right back up now which is giving me the impression that we could see a continuation of a sideways consolidation since Monday's high. However, a minor new low from here could finish a the pullback from Monday. Too many possibilities and not enough evidence yet which way this is going. There are much better times to trade so don't force trades just to trade here.

Jane Fox : 3/26/2008 10:06:41 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Sales of new homes in the United States fell to a 13-year low in February, dropping 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday.

Sales have fallen four months in a row and are off about 30% in the past year.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expected a drop to about 575,000 in February.

Sales in January and December were revised up modestly, with January now estimated at 601,000 instead of 588,000. Large revisions are common.

The figures likely overstate the number of sales, because they don't account for canceled sales, which have ballooned. The report is based on contracts signed, not sales closed.

The number of homes on the market dropped by 2.1% to 471,000, the lowest since July 2005, an indication that builders are trying to work off their bloated inventories of unsold homes. The inventory represented a 9.8-month supply at the February sales rate, unchanged from January and the highest since 1981.

Inventories are likely understated because of cancellations.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2008 10:05:04 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2008 10:03:40 AM

Feb. new-home median sales price down 2.7% in past year

Feb. new-home inventory 9.8 months supply, 27-year high

Feb. new homes for sale fall 2.1% to 471,000

New home sales down 29.8% in past year

Feb. new-home sales stronger than 575,000 expected

Feb. new-home sales lowest in 13 years

Feb. new-homes sales fall 1.8% to 590,000 pace

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 10:02:02 AM

The SPX attempts to balance on Keltner support now at 1342 on 15-minute closes. It may attempt a bounce any time, but, if it does, likely strong resistance gathers from 1346-1349.50. Right now, it's looking as if that might be strong enough to stall the SPX if a bounce attempt does occur, although I'm not sure it will stop it permanently.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 9:58:11 AM

Since the wee hours of the morning this morning, the USDJPY has been pressured lower by its 15-minute 9-ema, with all 15-minute closes below that average. That's now 99.14, with the USDJPY 99.05 as I type. Watch for sustained 15-minute closes above that as a signal that the market tenor could be changing. You need sustained moves above it and not just a quick pop up to 99.23-99.32 and then an equally quick reversal back lower again.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 9:55:44 AM

The TRAN drops heavily, as I suspected it might be doing even before I glanced at the chart. This action also should be considered a negative for OEX, SPX and Dow action. However, remember the crude inventories coming up at 10:30 am ET. Sometimes they do impact the direction of crude and the TRAN just turns around. That can be a tricky reaction to predict, though, since the TRAN is sensitive to crude and to the economy, and the economy-sensitive reaction may be ruling today, no matter what the crude inventories do.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 9:51:40 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line created a breakdown mode this morning, breaking beneath Keltner support now at about -550. There's perhaps historical support at Wednesday's -1289 level, but all the A/D line has to do now is remain in breakdown mode and that presents a negative drain on the equity action. The A/D line is -1105 as I type, so watch for bounce potential as the -1300 level is approached.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 9:48:00 AM

Remember the possibility of a consolidation day as you're planning trades. If that kind of day is produced, early losses might be reversed and a choppy price pattern begin. There's no proof that will happen with either consolidation or an actual pullback the most likely actions predicted yesterday, but keep it in mind as a possibility.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 9:46:20 AM

Still, the OEX looks weaker on a Keltner basis than the SPX, which is the opposite of what we've seen over the previous couple of weeks. The SPX balances just above the potential Keltner support now at about 1342.50 on 15-minute closes while the OEX has dropped (at least temporarily) below analogous support for it, now at about 623.87. Further potential support is now 1334.80 for the SPX and 620.53 for the OEX.

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 9:43:14 AM

The DOW has now broken yesterday's low so the first downside target is where we'd have two equal legs down from Monday's high (DOW 12396/SPX 1339) and then where the 2nd leg down would be equal to 162% (DOW 12291/SPX 1327.59). The broken downtrend lines from December are at DOW 12379/SPX 1338. So those are levels to watch if this morning's decline continues.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 9:36:09 AM

Hmm. The OEX is diving deeper than the SPX this morning on a Keltner basis. It's currently testing potentially strong support on 15-minute closes at 624, with further potential support at 620.55. That 624 level is equivalent to the SPX's 1342.50-ish level, which the SPX hasn't yet touched.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 9:34:22 AM

I omitted the potential SPX support at about 1348.60 on 15-minute closes. The SPX is obviously well below that currently, but the first 15-minute period has not concluded.

Linda Piazza : 3/26/2008 9:32:36 AM

Late yesterday, I noted that although these markets are crazy enough that we could get an atypical reaction, the most likely follow-up to the action was either consolidation or else an actual pullback. The SPX is thickly ringed with both support and resistance on the 15-minute chart. Barring a strong push down, then, consolidation remains a possibility. There's potentially strong support on 15-minute closes at 1342.50 and then again near 1334.80.

Keene Little : 3/26/2008 9:30:34 AM

Equity futures are down but it was more of a chopy slide lower overnight. It's possible we'll see a drop and pop. At least that's what I'm hoping we'll see. If the market drops back down below yesterday's low it will make the price pattern a little more confusing. I'll get some downside targets if that happens but I'd prefer to see the rally and potentially finish the rising wedge patterns to then set up a better shorting opportunity. The bottom line though is that we remain in a very choppy price environment so trade accordingly.

Jane Fox : 3/26/2008 9:19:20 AM

Crude found support at $100/bl which was a no-brainer. Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2008 9:18:37 AM

SPX is back in no-man's land and in the sideways zone that has captured most of the year's move. In light of all the bad news swirling around, I think this is very bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2008 9:06:13 AM

Although Gold broke through its support at 940-960 on the way down, it may find this zone as resistance on the way up. The jtHMA charts are now long Gold but this resistance is one that I am keeping an eye on. Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2008 9:01:43 AM

Neither bears nor bulls won during the overnight session. No previous day highs or lows were breached, there was no discernable trend, just a muddle through sideways move. Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2008 8:50:43 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- Demand for expensive goods took a wrong turn in February and unexpectedly dropped, while a barometer of capital spending by businesses tumbled a second straight month.

Orders for durable goods fell 1.7% last month to a seasonally adjusted $210.65 billion, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Durables, which are manufactured goods designed to last at least three years, decreased 4.7% in January, revised higher from a previously estimated 5.1% decrease.

Wall Street expected an increase in durable goods orders during February, with economists forecasting a climb of 0.8%. The data contained in the durables report are seen as volatile month to month.

A key report released early this month on U.S. manufacturing showed the sector contracted during February. The Institute for Supply Management's index of manufacturing activity moved to a reading of 48.3, from 50.7 in January and 48.4 in December.

Wednesday's durables data showed a barometer of business equipment spending -- orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft -- decreased in February by 2.6%, after falling 1.8% in January. February shipments for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft fell by 2.1%, after decreasing 0.4% in January; the shipments are used in calculating gross domestic product, which is the barometer for economic activity in the U.S.

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