Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2008 2:15:44 AM

Last two (2) and current Weekly Pivot Matrix at this Link

DIA's high so far this week has been $126.10.

SPY's missed a kiss of WKLY R1 with a high of $135.81. Maybe enough humans to keep it from happening.

QQQQ missed its WEEKLY R2 with a high of $45.07. Enough buyers to exhaust a WKLY R1 though.

SMH gets a WKLY R1, but gives up the pivot. Humans and computers still selling $30-ish.

BIX.X have become internets of old. Up big, then back down. Volatile as can be!

Trade-off with some 10-year selling (yields higher) to WKLY R1, but dollar weak to WKLY S1. Almost a "zero-sum."

VIX.X ... nothing so far this week.

TRIN resets to 1.00 each day. Selling and buying pressure within last week's range.

Counting this week's trade to tonight's close, it has been three (3) weeks since a major has traded its WKLY S2. It has been four (4) weeks since a major has traded its WKLY R2 (INDU/DIA week of 2/25-2/29 at 12,696/$126.83)

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2008 1:42:25 AM

Each day, each week, each month and each quarter we can calculate new pivot levels. Do you see how institutional computers can then manage inventory of so many different securities based simply on each day's, week's, month's and quarter's regular session high, low and close?

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2008 1:34:33 AM

Beetle's Balanced at Thursday's close (dollar starts new day). Link

In recent week's, both Bill Gross and Warren Buffett have mentioned "value" in muni area.

See the -2.28% P/L%? That's so far this year. What is notable here is that on the scale of RISK, a longer-term Treasury portfolio's coupon should be SAFER than a muni bond (Federal vs. Municipality).

However, a municipality should be SAFER than a high grade corporate and there should be some TAX ADVANTAGE over corporate for an investor (after-tax yield).

Using the MUB and LQD as a "general observation" of a large basket of fixed income products, I could now see what Mr. Gross and Mr. Buffett are talking about.

Each day, each week, each month, each quarter the MARKET seeks out the most FAVORABLE risk/reward.

Since 12/31/08 we see that Silver as depicted by the SLV +24.65% has indeed offered the greatest reward. Broader commodities as depicted by the GSG next at +14.98%, then GLD +13.34% and USO +13.16%.

Excluding dividends of the various "fixed income" products SHY to TLT, these are all treasuries and they would have shown a gain. Add in some dividends and you've made some money.

High grade corporates as depicted by the LQD probably a gain with a quarter's dividends.

Yes, bonds pay "interest," but ETF's pay dividends.

DIA, SPY and IWM actually running neck-and-neck for the most part. DIA and SPY spit off better dividend though.

Over last 52-weeks, DIA down just -0.59%. SPY -7.05% and IWM -13.7%.

QQQQ beaten hard this quarter. 52-weeks holding tough at -0.63%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2008 1:09:56 AM

Being 1/2 position short the IWM, I would have to agree that PRICE action may suggests distribution, but the very important internals of the bullish % suggest divergence.

BULLISH divergence. (see 12:27:44 adjustment)

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2008 1:06:34 AM

Additional internals had today's RUT.X NH/NL at 21:14.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2008 1:00:45 AM

Bullish % Table that I keep each day at this Link

StockCharts' bullish % will be "close," but they adjust a stock's chart for dividend distributions.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2008 12:44:37 AM

$BPNYA Link

BPCOMPQ Link

$BPSPX Link

$BPOEX Link

$BPNDX Link

and the very narrow BPINDU Link

Doctor enters the room and tells the patient he looks terrible, but asks him how he feels on the inside?

Patient responds ... "Much better!"

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2008 12:27:44 AM

Swing trade short lower stop alert! ... to break even for the 1/2 short position in the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) Link .

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2008 12:25:47 AM

Bull Alert! ... Today's action has Dorsey/Wright & Associates' very broad OTC Bullish % (BPOTC) reversing back up to "bull alert" status at 28.00 (28.24% actual). It would take a measure of 30% for this very broad indicator of supply and demand to achieve "bull confirmed" status.

Here's StockCharts.com's BPCOMPQ Link which did achieve a "bull confirmed" status.

Keene Little : 3/27/2008 10:18:17 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Price action has been looking more like distribution than accumulation so there's a risk of a breakdown which should happen quickly on Friday if it's going to happen. In the meantime the choppy pullback since Monday's high has formed a potential bull flag which calls for an immediate rally on Friday. So we'll hopefully get some answers relatively early on Friday as to where this market is heading.

The SPX 60-min chart shows the bull flag pullback inside what might be a rising wedge from the March lows: Link . The daily chart shows how that rising wedge fits into the larger sideways consolidation pattern: Link . The choppiness makes the price projections more speculative than usual but based on the corrective price action that I'm seeing this scenario fits well.

OI Technical Staff : 3/27/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 8:02:35 PM

Bolivia President Sets April 30 Deadline On Nationalizing Gas Companies

DJ- President Evo Morales has set an April 30 deadline for Bolivian subsidiaries of British Petroleum (BP), Repsol YPF (REP.MC), and Ashmore Energy International to return to state control.

The three companies each own former parts of Bolivian state energy company YPFB that were privatized during the 1990s. Morales' 2006 nationalization of Bolivia's oil and gas sector requires those subsidiaries be sold back to the state.

Morales announced the deadline late Wednesday in hopes of completing long-delayed talks over the sales by May 1.

The deadline affects gas production companies Chaco, controlled by BP; Andina, controlled by the Spanish company Repsol YPF; and pipeline company Transredes, controlled by Ashmore Energy International of Houston.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 7:58:43 PM

DJ- Strike Puts Argentine Grain Exports In Force Majeure

Argentine President Cristina Fernandez threw down the gauntlet to striking farmers in an ever-deteriorating crisis Thursday, vowing not to enter into negotiations over a new soy tax until they lift blockades that have blocked food flows around the country.

In a much-anticipated speech before a packed hall of flag-waving, left-wing supporters, at the end of a day in which food-hoarding worsened in the bigger cities, Fernandez said she wouldn't negotiate with "a gun to the head."

The president defended a recent hike in the export duty on soybeans, calling it an "absolutely rational measure," aimed at promoting investment in crops other than soy.

It is "impossible to negotiate with measures of force in place," Kirchner said. Later, toward the end of the speech, she added, speaking rhetorically to the absent farmers: "Humbly, on behalf of all Argentines, I ask that you end this strike so we can talk."

The speech was, in a way, an entrenching of positions between the government and the farm sector after hopes for a truce to resolve the 15-day crisis were dashed earlier Thursday.

Mid-afternoon, farm representatives said they were talking to government representatives about the prospect of a 48-day halt to the blockades in return for a promise to negotiate the tax hike. But some time later, a coalition of farm groups made a statement saying that they were disposed to end their strike only if the government entered into meaningful negotiations.

Argentina's grain exporters are defaulting on contracts, with the ongoing farm strike leading them to declare force majeure, Dreyfus Corp. spokesman Mike Mandl told Dow Jones Newswires Thursday.

"There isn't any grain to load in the boats," an executive from Dreyfus' Argentine unit said.

Farmers have been on strike for 15 days, blocking roads across the country and preventing the movement of agricultural goods.

There are 15 boats at dock and 20 anchored in the river awaiting loading, but no grain to fill them with, Rosario Grain Exchange Analyst Lorena D'Angelo said.

The boats that are moored at the Argentine docks will wait to be loaded, but other ships are being diverted, primarily to Brazil, D'Angelo said.

The trade director for a major U.S. multinational in Sao Paulo said his unit in Argentina was facing force majeure and the company was trying to step up shipments from Brazil.

However, Brazil's loading terminals are already operating at capacity.

"Our ports are mobbed," the trade director said.

With the soybean harvest kicking off, exporters had expected to start processing and shipping the first beans from the 2007-08 crop, committed to export and arranged shipping.

The problem is particularly serious with corn, which is in full harvest. Exporters already have declared commitments to ship 7.6 million metric tons of new-crop corn, according to the Agriculture Secretariat.

However, exporters have just 45 days from when they make an export declaration to when they actually ship the corn. The farm strike looks set to prevent the shipment of such a very high amount in such a short period.

When opening the corn export registry in January, the government shortened the period for shipping to 30 days plus a 15-day grace period, compared with the year that had previously been allowed.

In addition, there are no signs that an end to the farm strike is in sight.

On Thursday, President Cristina Fernandez said that she would not negotiate with farmers until they lift the strike.

The leader of a regional farm group in Entre Rios province shouted: "We won't give in," during a televised speech immediately following the president's comments.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 7:50:16 PM

Wow! Into Monday's expiration, April heating oil got squeezed big-time Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 7:36:49 PM

DXY 71.50 ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 7:36:22 PM

The IWM's "close" shown of $69.98 looks to be a "mark to market" type of print. There was a block of 1,003,100 printed at 04:34:02 at $69.98.

Again ... a lot of today's action looked end-of-quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 7:31:15 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/27/2008 4:04:07 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include

8:30a.m. Feb Personal Income. Expected: +0.3%. Previous: +0.3%.

8:30a.m. Feb Personal Spending. Expected: -0.1%. Previous: +0.4%.

10:00a.m. End-Mar Reuters/U Mich Sentiment Index. Previous: 70.5.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 4:02:55 PM

I do want to keep the tight stop on the SWC-PD though.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 3:59:43 PM

Add a little to the position, but roll out in time.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 3:59:00 PM

Swing trade put alert! ... for one (1) of the Stillwater Mining SWC April $17.50 Puts (SWC-QW) at the offer of $2.85.

SWC $16.06 -5.30% ...

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 3:55:40 PM

The SPX approaches one zone of potential support on its 30-minute chart. Time to make end-of-day decisions about whether you're holding overnight, if you haven't already. Important and potentially market-moving numbers will be released before the open tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 3:52:20 PM

SPY $132.49 ... another 50-cents to go?

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 3:51:47 PM

YM darts to session lows ... 12,300

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 3:45:22 PM

DXY 71.71 ... tough to say, but might put a little "bearish psychological pressure" on a mining bull.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 3:43:49 PM

Ah, a little bit there ... 99 contract so far today. All at $0.75.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 3:42:49 PM

SWC-QW are $2.70 x $2.85. Would be the next-month "roll" lower. No action. Any on the $15?

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 3:41:28 PM

CBOE has backed off tiwh 1,600 bid at 16.03. Also matching 1,600 at $16.30.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 3:40:42 PM

Just monitor it here ... SWC $16.19. See who is doing what on your level II

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 3:39:10 PM

Keltner channels flatten. Moves across benchmark levels, or what should be benchmark levels, mean little. The possibility for more choppy SPX consolidation was there at yesterday's close along with the other of the two most likely scenarios--a possible stronger pullback. So far, it's been the choppy movement in keeping with a sideways-to-sideways down consolidation on the daily chart. The possibility for a drop toward a lower Keltner target still exists, but this sideways stuff has allowed that target to climb to 1315, and there's potentially significant support in the 1325-1328 area.

Keene Little : 3/27/2008 3:32:22 PM

Well, I hate to leave all this excitement and torture but I must. I've got to run off to a meeting so I'll check back later to see if we get an exciting finish. After all this price action today, the DOW and SPX are still dancing on top of their broken downtrends from December. I could easily argue for a big move either way.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 3:32:18 PM

SWC and a 60-minute interval chart. Marking the recent "volume spike" (for SWC that's a notable spike). Link the look of "equilibrium" perhaps.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 3:19:09 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 3:18:15 PM

Another miserable day of consolidation. The consolidation has been prolonged long enough to flatten Keltner channels and other indicators, giving little indication of next direction.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 3:08:41 PM

CNBC mentioning some type of outage impacting heating oil prices today. Haven't been monitoring the wires all that closely. Heating oil is on fire.

Keene Little : 3/27/2008 3:01:37 PM

Today's price pattern looks suspiciously like a distribution pattern--price chops higher and then drops sharply lower. While it looks like a bull flag formation over the past few days, I'm reluctant to believe it. A breakdown at this point looks the more probable path. That and $2.50 will get you a Starbucks drink.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 3:00:20 PM

Now look at your 60-minute interval chart of SWC. See anything that you should be aware of? Look at the level, then look back to the 2/15/08 close and the next session's 2/19/08 open.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 2:58:25 PM

Swing trade put establish stop alert! ... for the one (1) Stillwater Mining SWC April $20 Put (SWC-PD) ... IF SWC trades $16.55.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 2:54:39 PM

Let's do this and I'll follow with a chart as to why.

Keene Little : 3/27/2008 2:54:30 PM

Let's see if we can get an even 4 times for a 100-point swing on the DOW with another move back up to the daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 2:47:44 PM

June Palladium (pa08m) ... here's an adjustment I've made with retracement. I want to mark that MARKET MOVING NEWS I caught on 1/25/08 with the now 100% retracement. For whatever reason the recent high of $595. Sure looks like market participants are trading it. Link

Note the 21-day SMA. Not just now, but a couple of weeks ago at 03/14/08 relative low.

I would think a SWC short/put holder wants a repeat performance of that action AFTER 3/14/08 for one more leg down.

450 could be a quarterly close.

Ah, but so could $500.

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 2:36:43 PM

So far, what we have on the daily SPX chart is another small-bodied candle falling in a sideways-to-sideways down consolidation formation. If the SPX continues to chop around in the day's range into the close, this will be the third day of consolidation, the sort of minimum amount of time that pullbacks usually occur before another attempted push higher, if that's going to occur. The close might be particularly important, then. If prices crater, creating the kind of day that was seen 2/29/08 after a setup similar to what was seen the last three days, then the nature of the market changes over the short-term, of course. If the SPX manages to stay relatively steady into the close, the possibility that this is just a small pullback to gain energy before another upside attempt increases.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 2:31:16 PM

Monitoring June Palladium and SWC a little closer here lately.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 2:29:15 PM

PBR $102.75 -1.95% ... as USO rockets +1.66%.

PBR's quarterly range finds it at our 61.8% retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 2:26:15 PM

Can't foget Long-Term Capital.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 2:26:01 PM

And this just in ...

DJ- A DECADE LATER, MERIWETHER SCRAMBLES AGAIN

Ten years after overseeing a hedge-fund collapse that buckled the world's financial markets, Long-Term Capital founder John Meriwether again is scrambling to stem losses and keep investors from jumping ship as his biggest fund plunges 28%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 2:23:15 PM

Remember Amaranth and the Nat. Gas trade. Was great while it was going up, but he bought it all the way down and blew up.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 2:21:53 PM

Looks like there are some that know what they're doing, or have been on the right side of the trade (as we've seen, the onese that know what they're doing will make gains should things turn as they make the adjustment). Must be some that don't with a 1.34% average.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 2:19:13 PM

I have the DXY falling 1.95% in February.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 2:17:33 PM

Currency Hedge Funds Up 1.34% In February - Parker Index

DJ- Foreign exchange hedge funds reported an aggregate gain of 1.34% in February, according to the latest reading of the Parker FX Index released Thursday. Year-to-date performance of the index is up 1.13%. Fund-of-funds manager Parker, which tracks the performance of around 80 currency funds, said the median return in February was 1.08%, while returns ranged from +6.80% to -4.94%. Excluding fees and interest, the Parker index was up 0.47% in February. Stamford, Conn.-based Parker said on an absolute returns basis, the top three funds in February were Alder Capital Global 20 Program of Dublin, Ireland (+6.80%), the Trigon FX Program of New York (+6.59%) and the ABN Amro Currency Fund of London (+6.52%). "Managers in the index benefitted from a down-trending U.S. dollar," Parker said in the statement. "Long emerging market currencies were generally profitable with the Colombian peso appreciating 5.4% versus the dollar, and the Slovakian koruna up almost 6% versus the dollar." Parker doesn't name the worst-performing funds.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 2:14:41 PM

IRAQ PIPELINE ATTACK TO 'HEAVILY' HIT EXPORTS (update)

DJ- The bombing of the key Zubair-1 crude pipeline, the largest pipeline to the Basra export terminal, will likely affect exports "heavily." Officials say it would take 72 hours to fix if security permits as military operations take a toll on oil production and exports. News sends oil prices higher.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 2:13:15 PM

DJ- Nymex Crude Up $2, Tops $108/Bbl; First Time Since March 19

Jane Fox : 3/27/2008 2:13:04 PM

Match the colors of the trendlines on the chart to the trendlines on the MACD and you will see three very nice MACD divergences.

It will be very bearish if the bears are able to negate all these bullish MACD divergences. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 2:10:51 PM

For the OEX, there's potential Keltner support at 616.05 on 15-mintue closes, but stronger support may lie at about 614.50.

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 2:09:32 PM

Potential support for the SPX on 15-minute closes is now at 1328.90, but a descending trendline off yesterday's and today's lows is lower, at 1325.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 2:09:50 PM

Don't think about quarterly rebalancing simply for a LONG only money manager's point of view. There's been a BIG growth in hedge funds (long and short) and SHORT only.

Keene Little : 3/27/2008 2:07:20 PM

Did you take your Dramamine today? That's 3 cycles of watching the DOW lose and gain 100 points today and we're still stuck in the trading range of the past few days. It certainly could be potentially bullish that it's consolidating following the rally to recent highs. But clearly it makes for some difficult trading right now if you're hoping for some follow through in either direction.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 2:05:52 PM

I jumped over to a different QCharts setup and got my "Beetle's Balanced Benchmark" from 12/31/07 closing values.

The YrNet% may not be correct for fall (these are the 52-week changes). Link

Jane Fox : 3/27/2008 1:54:03 PM

Internals are telling us nadda today. Well that is not entirely true because they are unclear and that tells us the market is unclear and will be hard to trade. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 1:51:53 PM

CDE making a move today ... $4.21 +6.58%

Jane Fox : 3/27/2008 1:51:19 PM

The DOW futures are now below its overnight low as well.

Jane Fox : 3/27/2008 1:42:06 PM

Markets are still within their overnight ranges. Well most are, NQ is below its overnight low and previous day low. Link

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 1:35:32 PM

The 15-minute 9-ema held . . . until it didn't. The SPX and OEX are both back below those averages. Don't count on anything today. Typical choppy stuff, but I don't see anything that precludes a steep drop, at least to 1330 or 1325 or a climb, at least to 1346 or maybe 1352. If you've got the crystal ball I lose, please send it back.

Keene Little : 3/27/2008 1:26:30 PM

DOW's 30-min chart update shows price stalled at the top of its potential bull flag pattern so an continuation of the rally could give us an early signal that the next leg up may have started. Otherwise a trip back down could take the DOW down to 12200. Link

Keene Little : 3/27/2008 1:24:40 PM

Price action is still not tipping its hand here and we remain inside the trading range of the past few days. After breaking its short term downtrend line from Tuesday, SPX is now dropping back down for what could be a retest, just below 1340. If it holds and then bounces above 1348 I'd say we have a bullish move. Right now the jury is still out. 30-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 1:21:31 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 1:16:08 PM

Assuming this week's high and lows have been make on the IWM .... IF the IWM were to go out here on Friday at $70.00, THEN next week's Pivot levels would be $66.99, $68.49, Piv= $69.46, $70.96, $71.93.

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 1:14:02 PM

Both the SPX and OEX test their 15-minute 9-ema's. Both still hold above them but there are still a few minutes left until the end of this 15-minute period.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 1:01:57 PM

Hmmm ... if VIX.X were to go out here at 24.99 on Monday, Quarterly Pivot Levels would be ... 13.11, 19.41, Piv= 27.95, 34.25, 42.79.

Only two days did VIX.X see a close above this quarter's R1.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:59:39 PM

Mid-point of VIX.X range for Q1 so far would be 29.06.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:57:40 PM

VIX.X 25.08 -3.83% ...

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 12:57:15 PM

I've been researching for tonight's Wrap and didn't realize that I hadn't posted in a while because I was writing all the time. So, what's up now? As I mentioned earlier, it was important that you not draw too strong conclusions about what was going to happen as there was too much uncertainty about setups, One potential scenario for the day was choppy consolidation inside the former descending channel off Monday's high. Now it's possible to draw another descending channel off yesterday afternoon's late-day high, a more steeply descending one. The SPX just hit the top of that channel, now at about 1344.23, a few minutes ago. Is this channel valid or will the SPX's choppy price action just form itself into something else? Will Keltner benchmarks, once violated to the downside and now to the upside, mean any more than they did the last time they were tested?

I don't know. That's the nature of such choppy action: nothing can be trusted. For now, the SPX has been finding support over the last 90 minutes at its 15-minute 9-ema, with that now at about 1341.10. Bulls want it to continue doing so to maintain this short-term upward trend.

Jane Fox : 3/27/2008 12:57:06 PM

Here is a setup to take the MDY (Midcap SPDR Trust) short. Both monthly and weekly are red, daily has gone green so in a rally. Then we wait to sell the rally when the 120/60 minute to turn back red The way I would trade is to put an order under the lowest bar on the 120 minute, which would be short under 141.85. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:57:23 PM

Toll Bros. (TOL) $23.54 +4.25% ... TEP-FE $2.20 bid. TEP-ET $0.85 offer.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:55:12 PM

Lennar (LEN) $18.88 +7.33% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jane Fox : 3/27/2008 12:48:10 PM

Crude has reached a high of 107.70 so far today and I am not on board. Yesterday I put in a contingency order to buy USO (Crude's ETF) at 82.02 but for some reason I was not filled and when I realized what had happened it was too late. Call the broker and ask for restitution. Ya right. USO is now 85.54. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:44:38 PM

If the RUT.X were to go out here on Monday, its Quarterly Pivot levels for Q2 would be ... 579.87, 641.57, Piv= 705.01, 766.71, 830.15.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:41:40 PM

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) 131,200 +2.10% ... 19.1% conventional and mid-point of "Bailey Wave"

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:37:55 PM

Hey! 50% of DIA right in here at $124.23

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:36:29 PM

Hey! 50% of TYX.X right at 44.11

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:32:35 PM

All be darned ... do the same on FXI 1/10/08 to 3/20/08. Check out yesterday's low and its CLOSE. Smack to the penny at resulting 19.1%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:29:44 PM

Hey! IWM's 50% retracement of 1/02/06 high to 3/10/08 low (would be high/low so far this quarter) is at $70.30.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:25:18 PM

DJ- El Paso CEO Makes Largest Stock Buy By Co Insider

EP $16.05 +2.88% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:20:50 PM

DIA $124.04

SPY $133.97

IWM $69.93

QQQQ 44.39 (a little out of whack today). ORCL $19.44 -7.16%

Keene Little : 3/27/2008 12:18:25 PM

The choppy bounce off this morning's low hasn't exactly led to another leg down and in fact just the opposite. SPX is now running into the short term downtrend line from Tuesday's high (top of possible bull flag pattern) at 1341 so a break higher could be bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:17:29 PM

As good as a quarterly op-ex today. A lot of rebalancing looks to be going on.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:16:50 PM

IWM $70.00 +0.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:12:47 PM

AMERICAN EXPRESS TO BUY GE UNIT FOR $1.1B

DJ- American Express plans to buy General Electric's Corporate Payment Services unit for $1.1 billion in cash. American Express sees the acquisition lowering per-share earnings and return on equity in early years following the transaction.

AXP $45.19 -0.37% ...

GE

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 12:09:46 PM

If you're listening to CNBC, you know that two of the Fed speakers this morning included Minneapolis president Gary Stern and Cleveland Fed president Sandra Pianalto.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:06:30 PM

XAL.X 26.50 +0.34% ...

TRAN 4795 -0.35% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:05:44 PM

AMERICAN, DELTA CANCEL MORE FLIGHTS

DJ- American cancels 132 flights of its estimated 2,300 flights scheduled for today, as airline continues its inspections of wiring bundles on some of their planes. Delta cancels 275 flights through Friday because of an inspection of its MD-88 fleet.

AMR $8.52 -1.04% ...

DAL $8.50 -2.74% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:04:19 PM

CONAGRA TO SELL TRADING UNIT; 3Q NET CLIMBS 60%

DJ- Packaged-food company will sell its profitable commodity trading and merchandising operations to hedge fund Ospraie Management for $2.13 billion and boosts its outlook. Net climbs 60% to $309.1 million, or 63c a share, as sales jump 21% to $3.53 billion.

CAG $23.24 +6.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 12:03:07 PM

CLEAR CHANNEL GETS COURT ORDER TO FORCE BANKS TO ACT

DJ- Shares rally 10% after media company is granted a temporary restraining order against a number of banks to force them to follow through with funding its $19.4 billion buyout with two private-equity firms. The banks are expected to fight order.

CCU $29.57 +9.91% ...

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 12:00:32 PM

A speech for Fed governor Randall S. Kroszner before the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals Legislative Conference has been posted on the Federal Reserve's site. He provides a history of the subprime crisis and its importance in the Hispanic community, "given that the subprime market was the source of home purchase loans extended to many in the Hispanic community."

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 12:01:32 PM

Denise has written to note that several Fed officials will be speaking beginning at noon ET. I don't know of any other than the deputy treasury chief, but I'll try to find out who they might be.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 11:55:54 AM

Swing trade short lower stop alert! ... on the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) to $70.60.

IWM $69.72 +0.11% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 11:53:41 AM

iShares Xinhua China 25 (FXI) $134.98 +2.76% ... back to 0% conventional.

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 11:47:15 AM

Both my computer's time and the time when my charting service changes 15-minute candles are behind the MM's time stamp, so I'm often posting about a "few minutes left" when the time stamp on the MM says the 15-minute period has just concluded. I don't know which is wrong. If it were my computer alone, I'd blame that, but my charting service appears to agree with my computer.

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 11:45:44 AM

The SPX is now back to test Kelnter resistance, being above that 1336.25 potential resistance as I type but with a few minutes left to go in the 15-minute period. Remember that the SPX needs sustained 15-minute closes above these Keltner levels to change the tenor or else it's just testing. I don't see a strong conclusion yet, but what strong conclusion has been possible today? I know suscribers must get impatient and want some prediction, any prediction, but, really, isn't it good to know that the trade you're considering might not go anywhere? I certainly can think of times when I'd rather have not entered a trade if I knew that I was going to have to endure hours of chop before it either performed as expected or stopped me out.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 11:26:29 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/27/2008 11:25:14 AM

The bounce off this morning's low looks like another correction and should lead to another drop lower. At that point it will be possible to consider the move down from yesterday afternoon as complete but whether it will lead to just a larger bounce or something more is hard to say.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 11:23:23 AM

In Monday's Wrap, I'll re-visit the "Beetle's Balance" portfolio. Long-time subscribers know what that is.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 11:22:25 AM

One thing a trader/investor might want to do in next couple of days is simply take a look at the major indices, as well as some various bond ETFs. Take a conventional retracement and place it from this quarter's high and low. Make some observations. Then apply some basic economic theory to what you see.

Always ask "why have market participants done this?"

Then check against your 2008 forecast.

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 11:17:04 AM

The Keltner setup for the SPX still shows the potential for a slide down toward 1308 although we know there are potential support levels between here and there. The OEX's chart still shows the potential for a slide down toward 608.80 or so, although we also can recognize that there are potential support levels between here and there. Remain on watch for a potential sharp rise if this is just some kind of brief blip under support that big money will then reverse.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 11:12:02 AM

30-year Yield ($TYX.X) up just 0.8 bp now and backfills morning gap higher.

That pop to 4.417% and your PINK 38.2% (44.175) had me thinking we were going to get stopped on the IWM short.

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 10:56:54 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now about 1337.30. Bulls need to see values above that sustained to wipe out that potential downside target now just above 1308. The OEX needs to maintain 15-minute closes above about 620.60.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 10:56:54 AM

CNBC guest mentioning NVR. This is indeed a very good performing high-end home builder. Good one to keep an eye on for a "pulse" on a stock like TOL that does trade with options.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 10:51:56 AM

Anyhow ... some "economic thoughts" based on technical observations.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 10:50:52 AM

Larger cap indexes, with stock composition that can benefit of weaker dollar down, but not nearly the tie with the dollar's decline.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 10:49:30 AM

DXY 71.64 ... still noting very similar % change 52-week with the RUT.X.

As we near end of quarter DXY -13.69% and RUT.X -13.45%.

Both might be a bit of a "reflection" of how market participants see U.S. economy.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 10:45:07 AM

MEMC Electronic (WFR) $74.87 -7.56% ... darting lower.

Keene Little : 3/27/2008 10:42:34 AM

The DOW 30-min chart shows a potential bull flag pattern for the pullback from Monday, the bottom of which is currently near 12300: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 10:35:29 AM

Without a strong bounce back above about 620.15, the OEX has set a potential downside Keltner target of 608.61. Don't count on that target being met, but do factor in potential vulnerability to that level into your trading decisions.

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 10:34:11 AM

If the SPX can't quickly bounce back above about 1338, the potential downside Keltner target for the SPX is now 1308. Do not count on that target being met, but do factor vulnerability to that level into your trading decisions, especially if you're tempted to jump into long trades somewhere along here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 10:34:09 AM

EIA: Weekly Nat. Gas Storage Link .. Draw of 36 Bcf

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 10:32:04 AM

The SPX tests potential Keltner support that now extends down to about 1334.50 on 15-minute closes, with more important support a bit higher at 1336.40. The outcome is not yet determined as the SPX is just testing. As in my 10:22:48 post, I again caution that you not draw too strong a conclusion about what might happen next as there's still the potential for a climb from this being-tested support, at least up through the descending price channel. The current climate is more bearish than bullish, but that can shift quickly in this climate.

This does not mean that you should not form some sort of likely scenario against which to test action (mine is about equally split between more choppy movement within that channel and a steeper decline) and test the action against that (or those, in my case today) scenario. Just don't bet the farm on it . . . and, here goes that support giving way. Without a sharp and quick rise, the SPX has broken support.

Jeff Bailey : 3/27/2008 10:24:34 AM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) Alert! ... For those fixed income traders/investors that may have bought some PHF on 3/18/08 per my MM posting at $7.40, I'd suggest taking some position off the table here at $8.24 down to $8.17.

8.24 - 7.40 = $0.84/share. That's roughly 12-months of dividend's with very little time exposure. How I like to think about fixed income.

Keene Little : 3/27/2008 10:23:52 AM

SPX is again down to its broken downtrend line from December, here at 1335. Will it hold this time? I'm having my doubts about that.

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 10:22:48 AM

I can't emphasize enough how important it is not to jump too soon to a conclusion about where the SPX has to go next. One of the two most likely scenarios for the day is more consolidation after the steep rise, with the other being an actual pullback. At a distant third place in likelihood is a strong rise (sustained values above 1355) if consolidation has gone on long enough to digest gains, whatever "enough" might be. That possibility is viable, too, if in third place in my estimation. If it's going to be continuing consolidation then that could mean a choppy rise up through that descending price channel.

With that caution, however, the current setup looks more short-term bearish than bullish. If the SPX keeps battering at that potential support, as it's again doing as I type, it's eventually going to break through it.

Jane Fox : 3/27/2008 10:20:44 AM

The SPX remains in no man's land. Link

Jane Fox : 3/27/2008 10:15:32 AM

AD line is -72 so that is not telling us a thing.

Jane Fox : 3/27/2008 10:15:02 AM

The VIX is falling as the S&P futures fall so do not expect follow through here.

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 10:14:32 AM

The A/D line is so far dropping through mid-channel Keltner support, the same support that the SPX is testing. If the A/D line continues lower, this doesn't say good things for the SPX's ability to hold above that support. The A/D line tends to overrun support or resistance a bit so I'm giving it a bit of leeway before I decide that it's violated that support just yet. The A/D line is now 82.

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 10:05:12 AM

The A/D line has dropped into the potential Keltner support that I mentioned earlier today. That's now grouping at about 200 on 15-minute closes. It's been pierced already, but the A/D line is 293 as I type. The story isn't over here. This is short-term bearish that the A/D line dropped back, but since it's dropping into support as the SPX and OEX also test support, we really still do not know the outcome. Just know that, so far, there's still no capitalization on a potentially bullish short-term setup on the 15-minute SPX and OEX charts. Something is wrong. Will it get righted? Maybe, but this is how things are when prices chop around within some congestion or consolidation pattern. Things get scrambled and difficult to interpret.

Keene Little : 3/27/2008 9:59:02 AM

MER recovered from its gap down but is still negative and techs are negative. The price consolidation since yesterday continues to look bearish. The bulls have a lot of work to do to get out of this.

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 9:55:03 AM

For OEX traders: Potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes extends down to about 619.50 with trendline (descending channel since Monday) support is a bit lower, at about 618.90. Potential resistance on 15-minute closes, tested earlier today, is now at 623.22 and then 624.34. Above that potential Keltner resistance is now at 628.71 on 15-minute closes. As long as the OEX is between about 618.90 and 628.71, then, it's just chopping around within a choppy descending price channel.

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 9:51:50 AM

The TRIN and A/D line candles look similar (as seen on the 15-minute charts) this morning, and they shouldn't. They should look the opposite of each other. Whatever your trade, not all your ducks are in a row. Be careful.

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 9:48:03 AM

Prices seem to be firming a little, but the TRIN is rising and the VIX, although lower, has hit potentially strong Keltner support on 15-minute closes, at about 25.30. The VIX dropped to 25.29 and is now 25.41, but it's far to0 early to determine whether that support has really held and the VIX will bounce. Equity bulls want the VIX to fall below about 25.30 and stay there while equity bears want it to sustain support above about 25.30 on 15-minute closes and then bounce.

Keene Little : 3/27/2008 9:42:38 AM

I see MER is making new lows below yesterday's and that's another warning sign that the broader market could continue dropping.

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 9:41:34 AM

Still troubling SPX action. SPX bulls are still not able to capitalize on supposed early strength. Potentially firm Keltner support on 15-minute closes is now ranging down to about 1335.80. Potential Keltner resistance is now at about 1341 on 15-minute closes (the 9-ema) and then 1343.27. Above that is slight resistance at 1346.94 and then stronger resistance now risen to 1355.51. Resistance lines are scattered much more thinly than support lines, and that should enable the SPX to rise more easily than decline deeply. However, a similar setup was present most of yesterday, and the SPX bulls couldn't send prices higher and sustain them there.

Keene Little : 3/27/2008 9:38:44 AM

Tech stocks are not doing well this morning after the disappointing report from Oracle yesterday. That could be a drag on the market today.

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 9:37:51 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: As Jane just mentioned, the absolute number gives a slight edge to bulls but is not particularly convincing yet. On a Keltner standpoint, different than Jane's valuable input, the A/D line moves toward potential resistance (historical) at about 1050-1100, but it's balanced about equidistance between next potentially strong Keltner support down at 200-330 and next potentially strong Keltner resistance at about 2000. It's difficult to impossible to guess next direction, but it's certainly not wildly bullish yet. The A/D line is currently 800 after having risen to 973 and then drawn back.

Jane Fox : 3/27/2008 9:33:34 AM

AD line opens at +423 so telling you neither side has control. The bulls have the edge but not control.

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 9:33:12 AM

Today's most likely outcome as shown on the daily chart is either more sideways consolidation or more pullback, but a sustained SPX break above 1355.20 on 15-minute closes, confirmed then by a break above Monday's high, would change that outlook, of course. Let's see first if bulls can do any better at capitalizing on a short-term bullish setup that should have sent it up toward 1345-1347 if not 1355.20 yesterday but didn't.

Linda Piazza : 3/27/2008 9:30:56 AM

The USDJPY has been rising since yesterday evening, but continue to be wary of rapid shifts. The Bank of Japan is under the temporary leadership of two deputy governors. Recent statements from the finance minister and others discount the ability or willingness of the central bank to intervene in currency matters as they blame dollar weakness rather than yen strength on the forces that recently drove the USDJPY so low. Most sources I study believe that the current rise in the dollar is due more to long-term dollar shorts locking in some profits than to any expected long-term move. They still believe the dollar heads lower again. With that background, remember the possibility that this could happen after a short-covering rally and make trading decisions, especially end-of-day decisions, with that in mind.

Keene Little : 3/27/2008 9:26:23 AM

The overnight climb in equity futures, and then the pop up on the GDP number, has us opening in the green this morning. The expected rally leg looks good at this point as long as it's not a gap n crap morning.

Jane Fox : 3/27/2008 9:17:50 AM

I had a contingent order yesterday to buy USO (the Crude ETF) at 82.02 but the order was not filled. USO made a high yesterday of 85.23. What a shame. Link

Jane Fox : 3/27/2008 9:14:20 AM

Gold sliced through 940-960 support on its way down but is now finding resistance there. Of course the US$ is in rally mode now so this is no surprise. Link

Jane Fox : 3/27/2008 9:12:36 AM

The markets were struggling overnight until the GDP data was released. Once it was released all markets made new overnight highs, all except the NDX futures (NQ) that is. Link

Jane Fox : 3/27/2008 9:09:53 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's suggestion Wednesday that the U.S. Federal Reserve play a greater role in monitoring investment banks places him in a growing chorus arguing that the central bank should have more oversight of Wall Street.

Mr. Paulson is the first Bush administration official to publicly endorse the idea, which has been gaining currency since the Fed announced an unprecedented policy to directly lend money to some of the world's biggest securities firms. The Fed already lends money to commercial banks, but it also regulates them.

Mr. Paulson stopped short of saying the Fed should be allowed to examine those firms or tell them how much money to set aside in reserves.

He also suggested that the new lending authority, and consequently the Fed's new powers, should be temporary while policy makers try to contain strains in credit markets that are roiling the economy.

Jane Fox : 3/27/2008 8:59:45 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- The U.S. economy slowed dramatically at the end of 2007, according to a government report Thursday that didn't alter previous estimates of growth during the fourth quarter.

Gross domestic product rose at an unrevised 0.6% annual rate October through December, the Commerce Department reported in its third and final estimate for the fourth quarter. The report also showed corporate profits strengthened at the end of 2007.

Meanwhile, the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for unemployment insurance fell last week but remained at elevated levels consistent with sluggish labor markets. However, jobless claims may have been reduced slightly by an Easter holiday in Puerto Rico that closed state offices and was not captured by the Labor Department's seasonal adjustments.

The new estimate for fourth-quarter GDP matched the two previous estimates. All showed that growth weakened considerably from the third-quarter pace of 4.9%.

Wall Street had expected no revision to GDP, a measure of all goods and services produced in the economy.

Despite that there was no change in the main number, components of GDP were revised. Inventories, for instance, were liquidated much more than previously thought -- a positive sign for the economy in the future. The selloff could lead to greater production down the road whenever businesses sense rising future demand and decide to stock up on goods. By keeping inventories lean, business will less likely have to cut production in later quarters.

Jane Fox : 3/27/2008 8:58:05 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell 9,000 to stand at 366,000 for the week ended March 22, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Initial claims for the prior week were revised to 375,000 from an initial estimate of 378,000.

The four-week average of initial claims rose 1,750 to 358,000. The Labor Department noted that Puerto Rico's office was closed for Easter and took no initial claims.

Economists see readings consistently higher than 350,000 as signaling significant weakening in the labor market. Initial claims ranging from about 300,000 to 325,000 are consistent with a healthy rate of U.S. employment growth.

For the week ended March 15, continuing claims for benefits fell 5,000, reaching 2.85 million. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 25,250 to 2.82 million.

Market Monitor Archives