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Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2008 2:47:15 AM

30-year Treasury Yield ($TYX.X) 0.25 box chart Link ... And the "riskiest" of the "safest" Treasury bonds.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2008 2:40:36 AM

S&P 500 Bullish % (BPSPX) 2.0% box chart Link .

Should we take the 500 PnF charts of the SPX components and stack them into two (2) piles, 40.04%, or roughly 200 would be in the PnF "buy signal" stack, while the other 300 would be in the PnF "sell signal" stack.

The BPSPX is currently in "bull alert" status (reversed back up to 'bull alert' at 30%) and would need a measure of 42% to once gain achieve "bull confirmed" status.

Here we also observe volatility and perhaps uncertainty.

So far in 2008, I count six (6) columns of alternating O and X. Were three (3) months into the year!

For 2007, I'd count eight (8) columns of alternating O and X.

For 2006, how about four (4) columns of alternating O and X.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2008 2:27:28 AM

S&P 500 Index (SPX) 10-point box chart Link

With a general perceptions that the weaker dollar is, or has been having negative impact towards broader equities, the SPX's chart may reflect some of the MARKET's uncertainty too.

A pattern of alternating "sell," then "buy," then "sell," then "buy," then "sell," then "buy" signals suggest confusion/uncertainty. Even at the institutional level!

The one techncial positive these last two consecutive "buy" signals at 1,340 and 1,350 is that they come AT, then ABOVE the BEARISH RESISTANCE trend.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2008 2:07:30 AM

Yen ... 0.005 box chart Link ... where if there is a currency I'm currently following would be "the currency" that would tie more directly with the weakness we saw for equities here in the U.S. beginning January 2008, it would be the yen's move above 0.92.

At this point, the yen's BULLISH vertical count to 1.08 is still in play and it would currently take a trade "way down" at 0.92 for the BULLISH vertical count to be NEGATED.

You can perhaps see how DIFFICULT it is to control RISK for any yen "bias" (bull, or bear) and this brings me, and other traders/investors some tough decisions on how to manage RISK in equity trades.

From the Major Globl Indices table I've posted, you can see the NEGATIVE impact the STRONGER yen (or weaker $/yen) has had on Japan's Nikkei-225.

The DIFFICULTY I (Jeff Bailey) am having holding onto many index trades (even some individual equity trades) is trying to weigh the "what if the yen continues to chug higher to 1.08," vs. the "what if the yen slips back to 0.95, 0.92?"

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2008 1:46:46 AM

Euro ... 0.01 box chart Link ... Just as the DXY has far exceeded it BEARISH vertical count, the Euro has far exceeded its BULLISH vertical count of 1.50. Just as the DXY has given several "sell signals" the last couple of years, the euro has given several "buy signals."

With the euro far exceeding its BULLISH vertical count, it becomes IMPOSSIBLE to ascertain further UPSIDE reward for this currency. First sign of any weakness would be a trade at 1.53.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2008 1:30:06 AM

US Dollar Index (DXY) ... 0.50 box chart Link ... Some of the primary observations that still have the "bullish" side of me cautious for broader equities is the DXY.

Now, the sell signals at 89.00, then at 88.50, then at 84.50, then at 84.00, then at 82.00, then at 81.00, and perhaps at 79.50 (though "something happpened" in October A) did not appear to have a MAJOR negative impact on the major U.S. Equity benchmarks (INDU/DIA, SPX/SPY, OEX, NDX/QQQQ and RUT/IWM).

It would currently take a trade at 73.50 for the DXY to give a reversing higher PnF "buy signal." Something the DXY has NOT been able to do in a couple of years!

The "Top" at 78.50 would be the top of a 10-week trading band. The "Med" at 74.50 would be the middle, and the "Bot" would be the bottome of a 10-week trading band. Similar to a Bollinger Band, or Keltner, this "band" would likely have been trending lower with the DXY's price.

Whenever we see any security exceed a vertical count (in the case of the DXY, it was 83.00) it often suggests BEARISHness greater than first thought when the BEARISH vertical count column (92.00 to 88.00) was constructed in late 2005-early 2006.

The most heavily weighted currencies in the DXY is the euro, then the yen.

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2008 1:01:56 AM

World Bullish % on 2/14/08, 03/24/08 and 03/31/08 at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/1/2008 12:46:14 AM

World Bullish % Bell Curve at tonight's close Link

From 03/24/07 Close Link

From 02/14/08 Close Link

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 11:38:48 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables (new monthly numbers): Link and Link

At the end of the day Monday I showed the SPX daily and 60-min charts showing the potentially important trend lines, channels and trading range. The DOW's daily and 60-min charts are similar: daily - Link and 60-min - Link

The continued choppy price pattern leaves open too many possibilities to get a good bead on this market. It's jumping all over the place with no follow through in either direction. Rallies that break resistance suck in the bulls, reverse and then break support which sucks in the bears only to reverse again. Both sides have been getting spit out with losses in the process.

A continued decline on Tuesday would turn the pattern at least short term bearish and as shown on the daily chart could mean a trip back down to the bottom of its 2-month trading range (back down to 11750). The bulls still need to get the DOW back above 12768, the February 1st high, to establish a bullish pattern. In the meantime expect more of the same--chop and whipsaws.

OI Technical Staff : 3/31/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 8:14:15 PM

Japan's Tankan Large Mfg. Index 11 (forecast was 13) vs. previous 19.

Large Non-Mfg. Index 12 (forecast 12) vs. previous 16.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 7:45:26 PM

Major Global Equity Indices, Currencies, USO, GLD and $HUI.X found at this Link

Note: 2007 Total % Gain/Loss represents 2007 only

Nikke-225 was down 11.1% in 2007. Falls additional 18.2% so far this year (2008 YTD).

Shanghai was up 96.7% in 2007. Gives back some gain falling 34.0% so far this year (2008 YTD).

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 7:40:59 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 6:31:14 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

The NYSE's 61-day average a/d was 1,537/1,623.(48%)

The NASDAQ's 61-day average a/d was 1,359/1,614.(47%).

The NYSE NH/NL 61-day average was 38:211.

The NASDAQ's NH/NL 61-day average was 46:242.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 6:04:41 PM

There were 61 trading sessions during the 1st Quarter

The Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 737.35 +2.52% ... closes just below its 61-day SMA of 738.05.

The Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $28.72 +0.66% .... close just below their 61-day SMA of $28.86.

The Dow Transports (TRAN) 4,783.88 +0.62% ... close well above their 61-day SMA of 4,573.

The CBOE Oil Index (OIX.X) 808.36 +0.50% closes just below its 61-day SMA of 816.20.

The Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) 176.80 +1.51% close above their 61-day SMA of 171.83.

The AMEX Nat. Gas Index (XNG.X) 604.91 +0.90% closes above its 61-day SMA of 576.66

The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) 930.36 +1.04% closes just below its 61-day SMA of 932.

The Dow Jones Home Construction Index (DJUSHB) 375.16 +2.91% closes above its 61-day SMA of 338.26.

The US Oil Fund (USO) 81.36 -3.56% closes above its 61-day SMA of $77.53.

The StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $90.41 -1.59% closes just below its 61-day SMA.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index ($CRY) 386.89 -1.93% closes just above its 61-day SMA of 384.87, while the iShares S&P Commodity Index (GSG) $57.86 -2.36% closes further above its 61-day SMA of $55.55.

Major U.S. Equity Indexes with (61-day SMA)

Wilshire 5000 (DWC) 13,332 +0.57% (13,622)
NYSE Comp. ($NYA.X) 8,797 +0.40% (8,997)
NASDAQ Comp. ($COMPX) 2,279 +0.79% (2,334)
Russell 2000 ($RUT.X) 687.97 +0.70% (696.48)
S&P 500 ($SPX.X) 1,322.70 +0.56% (1,350.66)
S&P 100 ($OEX.X) 613.71 +0.55% (627.02)
NASDAQ-100 ($NDX.X) 1,781.93 +0.81% (1,807.80)
Dow Industrials ($INDU) 12,262.89 +0.38% (12,386.38)

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 4:38:42 PM

SPY goes out at $131.97 ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 4:37:24 PM

How'd they do that?

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 4:37:09 PM

S&P Price/Earnings Ratio At 15.00, Up From 14.92

The price/earnings ratio of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index at the close of trading Monday was 15.00.

On Friday, the ratio ended at 14.92.

The price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 measures the index's closing level divided by the index's total earnings, as reported under generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, for the most recent year.

In 2006, the most recently reported year, S&P 500 companies reported earnings of $88.18 a share.

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 4:20:28 PM

SPX has been pinched into the corner of the uptrend line from March 17th and the downtrend line from March 25th: Link . If it breaks lower tomorrow then the bottom of its down-channel near 1304 is the first target. That could have the DOW breaking its key level at 12097 which would indicate the market is heading lower. In that case we could see SPX head back down to the bottom of its trading range near 1275: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 4:10:42 PM

SPY $131.86 +0.26% ... 6 minutes until end of Q1.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 4:02:23 PM

Unfortunately, no answers into the close, making your decisions more difficult. It's consolidation on the daily chart, and so far consolidation on the weekly. We'll see tomorrow what the ISM brings.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 4:01:14 PM

Economic Reports tomorrow include

10:00a.m. Feb Construction Spending. Expected: -1.0%. Previous: -1.7%.

10:00a.m. Mar ISM Manufacturing Business Index. Previous: 48.3.

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 3:59:20 PM

Once again, no follow through to the buy programs. Worse, it looks like someone uses it to create liquidity to then sell into. This remains a distribution pattern until the bulls can prove otherwise.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 3:59:02 PM

DIA $122.92 ... 18 minutes. 18 minutes until end of Q1

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 3:58:14 PM

YM 12,300

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 3:55:09 PM

The home builders got a decent bounce today but gave a portion of it back, currently up about +2.5%. The rally was stopped today at its downtrend line from February 2007, which it almost broke above last week: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 3:53:13 PM

Here's the SPX back above the daily 10-sma, facing the Keltner and trendline resistance now from 1327.90-1331.92 on 15-minute closes. The daily candle is still a small-bodied one, but without much of an upper candle--at least for now--but it still speaks of consolidation if the SPX ends the day at or below about 1332.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 3:49:37 PM

SPY Weekly Interval bar chart from 03/10/08 wrap Link

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 3:49:01 PM

My SMH "indicator" is so far indicating nothing. It remains stuck in its sideways triangle that's been in place since the January low: Link

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 3:46:07 PM

SPX is about to tag its downtrend line from last week, now just under 1328. So far it's just more chop and whipsaw. After today's price action we have no real resolution to this mess, other than that we're still in a short term downtrend. Can the bulls break that going into the close?

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 3:43:33 PM

Nice end-of-day buy program to spook the bears.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 3:40:29 PM

How about $132.00 and "bias" level

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 3:40:08 PM

DIA $122.52

SPY $132.07

QQQQ $43.77

IWM $68.50

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 3:39:14 PM

22 to 37 minutes left in quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 3:36:31 PM

Certainly (in my opinion) today another "manipulated" trade.

Should "hang out" and monitor DXY action first couple days of new quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 3:35:23 PM

SWC $15.30 -4.37% ... session low has been, been, been ... $15.05.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 3:34:36 PM

TSO $29.87 +2.18% ...

VLO $48.95 (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 3:26:20 PM

April Heating Oil (ho08j) final settlement looks to be $3.0492.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 3:26:06 PM

It's not too early to start thinking about end-of-day decisions. If the SPX ends the day anywhere between the daily 10-sma and its low of the day, it will have created a consolidation candle with an upper shadow that pierced the 10-sma. While in normal times such a candle might have suggested that the SPX might be attempting to stabilize at the least, I'm not at all sure that's what it means today. RSI is currently 48.59, about as neutral as you can get. The SPX is almost equidistance between the support and resistance of its possible bearish triangle.

When I dial up to a weekly chart, it looks as likely that the SPX will roll down toward 1274-1276 as it does that it will burst up toward last week's high again.

This could as easily be consolidation before another downturn as a potential reversal signal in the making. I believe that we just don't yet know which it's going to be and won't know until tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 3:24:41 PM

April Unleaded (rb08j) final settlement looks to be $2.6163.

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 3:22:36 PM

Zooming in a little on the sideways consolidation pattern since January, you can see how the DOW continues to play around the long term uptrend lines from October 2002 and March 2003, today stopping at the latter: Link

This has been one ugly market to trade but then I know I don't need to tell you that. Just keep selling resistance and buying support for short term trades since that's all that's being offered at the moment.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 3:20:59 PM

It is always interesting to look at the overnight charts late in the intraday session. As you can see the Russell 2000's futures overnight highs are now support.

All other markets are now trading within their respective overnight ranges. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 3:20:13 PM

USD/JPY 99.71 ... 21-pd sma on 5-minute interval a smidge higher at 99.76

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 3:19:31 PM

YM 12,250 ... DIA $122.44

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 3:17:07 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 3:01:16 PM

IWM $68.61 ... low/high so far $67.81/$69.22. Darned near $0.20 either side of $68/$69

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 3:00:00 PM

DIA $122.50

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 2:59:31 PM

USD/JPY 99.76 ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 2:59:14 PM

YM a "toughy" for mindset of quarterly pinning ... overlaps at 12,345-ish and 12,080-ish

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 2:51:27 PM

The SPX has now, in the few moments while I edited the previous post, approached the 1321.40-ish potential support mentioned in my 2:15:47 post and attempted to bounce from it. I don't know if the bounce attempt is going to hold, but if it does and if the SPX should bounce up toward the day's high and all that grouped resistance shown in my 2:47:56 post, keep updating your profit-protecting plans for your bullish trades. Don't relax yet.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 2:51:04 PM

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) off 5.5 bp at 3.411% . Session low tagged WKLY S1.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 2:47:56 PM

I have more of a jaded approach to the markets than I once had. While I believe that technical analysis is both valid and helpful, I think markets are going to go where big money decides they are. If big money intends them to go higher, they're going to do it despite one bearish setup after another, as happened in early 2003, for example. If big money isn't going to support prices or is actively distributing stock into any rise, prices are going to go lower despite any bullish setups. All we can do is study, wait for the best trade setups we can find, and then be prepared for the possibility that we are wrong either in time or direction. So, with that said, here's the potentially strong SPX resistance that I've been pointing out all day: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 2:43:44 PM

USD/BRL Daily Interval bar chart with some USO and PBR benchmark notes Link

Will revisit. Trying to figure out what drives PBR.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 2:36:46 PM

Internals are bullish so I think the next move will be up however if you look at the AD line you will see it is still under +1000 and that is not where you want the AD line to see the kind of move that is tradable. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 2:28:28 PM

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) $100.63 -0.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 2:27:54 PM

Brazil's Central Bank Buys Dollars at BRL1.7503

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 2:15:47 PM

What if the SPX finds support now somewhere above about 1321.40 on 15-minute closes and rises again toward 1329-1330? I'm not sure it will, but let's just assume that it is for now. What happens then? So far, the resistance looks fairly strong in that zone and then up to 1333.28. We still have lots of pent-up energy from all this coiling within a descending price channel (not strictly a regression channel on my charts--one of the things I miss about QCharts), so it's entirely possible that the SPX could burst up through that resistance, some shorts could get surprised when the pop is sustained, and prices could charge up the test of the day and then tomorrow if the ISM pleases or at least doesn't surprise to the downside.

That's possible, but as I noted last week in comments that I acknowledge seem a bit simplistic, as long as support and resistance are holding, we should assume that they're going to continue to do so. That doesn't mean that you should assume to the point of plowing all your money in bearish trades. You should, however, assume that you're going to need profit-protecting plans in place if you've been in bullish trades all day. Assume that much and make those just-in-case plans. Be thinking already if you want to stay in trades overnight.

Oh, and maybe you just ought to have those plans in place already in case support doesn't hold and the SPX doesn't rise toward that resistance again. If it does rise, be cautious. I would not assume that resistance has been broken until and unless the SPX plows past that 1333.31 level and maintains levels above it on 15-minute closes.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 2:12:47 PM

Crude is trading back at $100/bl again. This is a very important retest of support. Link

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 2:12:03 PM

SPX has broken today's uptrend line and if it was the bottom of a rising wedge as I had shown on the 5-min chart then we will see a quick retracement of today's gains. That's the bearish side of things here. The bullish side is, well, I don't see any yet. Above 1330 would be bullish.

Jim Brown : 3/31/2008 2:06:28 PM

Unbelievable drop in oil prices with Crude down -$5 at $100.50 as we head into the close of trading at 2:30 ET. I have been saying for weeks that the 15 year high in gasoline inventories was going to eventually pressure crude prices but they refused to fall. Looks like reality finally appeared.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 2:00:43 PM

The OEX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at about 615.35. Potentially strong resistance at 617.11 on 15-minute closes, at trendline at about 617.90, and further Keltner resistance at 618.53.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 2:00:37 PM

IWM $69.00

DIA $122.90

SPY $132.45

QQQQ 43.93

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 1:58:45 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema has now risen to 1324.70. Those who want further gains want to see the SPX find support on 15-minute closes at thst 15-minute 9-ema. Remember the strong potential resistance just overheld: Keltner on 15-minute closes at 1329.35, trendline now at about 1330, and further Keltner on 15-minute closes now at 1333.46.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:58:11 PM

CAC-40 ($CAC.X) went out at 4,707. Up 11 points, or +0.24%. -16.2% for Q1.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:57:12 PM

DAX ($DAX.X) went out at 6,535. Down 25 points, or -0.38%. -18.2% for Q1.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:56:04 PM

FTSE-100 ($FTSE) went out at 5,702. Up 9 points, or +0.16%. -11.7% for Q1.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:54:07 PM

Shanghai ($SSEC) went out at 3,472. Down 107.43, or -3.00%. -34.00% for Q1.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:52:44 PM

Hang Seng ($HSI.X) went out at 22,849. Down 436, or -1.88%. -17.8% for Q1.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:50:46 PM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) went out at 12,525. Down 294.93, or -2.30%. -18.2% for Q1.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:47:55 PM

USD/JPY session high as been, been, been 100.15

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:47:30 PM

A little "too much money" into Treasuries at this point.

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 1:40:51 PM

Did we just get the throw-over finish to the rising wedge pattern on SPX? Link Needless to say, the bulls need to keep the buying going here. A break above 1330 would be bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:40:37 PM

Possible YM long setup on any pullback near 12,270 with a closing target of 12,350

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:38:12 PM

SPX 1,326.48 +0.85% ... a bit tentative at WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:34:39 PM

01:00 PM EDT Energy Futures at this Link

April Unleaded and Heating Oil expire at today's close.

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 1:31:43 PM

I don't know if it will have much influence as resistance but SPX is back up to the downtrend line from December as it nears the downtrend line from last week: Link . At the same time the 5-min chart is showing a potential bearish rising wedge for today's rally: Link

Be careful if you're long here--we're still waiting for a break of resistance to show this is more than just another corrective bounce within a larger decline.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:21:47 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 1:13:44 PM

Creating a parallel down-channel for NDX from last week, based off the trend line along the lows, shows it hitting the top of its channel here at 1787: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:13:15 PM

QQQQ $43.94 +1.03% ... probes its WKLY Pivot ... again.

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 1:10:43 PM

NDX is at least now pushing to a new daily high.

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 1:10:05 PM

The same downtrend line for SPX is a little higher--1330.

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 1:07:51 PM

The downtrend line from March 25th for the DOW is about to get tagged (12310) so we'll get to see if the bulls can put something together here. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a pullback before continuing higher (if it's going to head higher).

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:07:43 PM

REGULAR session calculations of course.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:07:24 PM

Index bulls will be targeting DAILY R2's.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:06:57 PM

TRIN 0.74 ... below its DAILY S2 (0.80)

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:06:22 PM

IWM's Daily Piv= $68.52, R1 $69.08, R2 $69.96.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 1:04:38 PM

The SPX did bounce again from its 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1323.05. Remember that potentially strong Keltner resistance that begins at about 1329.50 currently, jointed by trendline resistance at about 1331-1331.50 (estimated) and by further Keltner resistance at about 1334.51.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:04:51 PM

IWM cut through its WKLY Pivot ($68.85) as if it were not there. WKLY R1 above at $69.76

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:02:21 PM

Green looks like the color today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:02:09 PM

Get out those paint brushes!

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:01:53 PM

DIA $122.84 +0.49%

SPY $132.40 +0.67%

IWM $68.95 +1.11%

QQQQ $43.85 +0.82% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 1:00:17 PM

NYSE A/D 1,892/1,126

NASDAQ A/D 1,664/1,142

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 1:00:07 PM

Thanks for posting the video, Jim. (Jim's 12:47:49 post.) Not being a particular fan of Cramer, I hadn't seen the original program, but I had caught his rebuttal.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:59:39 PM

Swing trade short stop alert! ... for the 1/2 position in the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) $68.82

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:48:32 PM

PAL $5.13 -8.39% ...

Jim Brown : 3/31/2008 12:48:24 PM

Jim Cramer on Bear Stearns
A reader sent me this video on Cramer and his coverup of his BSC recommendation the week before they imploded. You watch, you decide: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:47:44 PM

SWC ... some size from $15.00 to $15.10

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:46:41 PM

Stillwater Mining (SWC) $15.15 -5.31% ... undercuts month's low.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:42:33 PM

SPY $132.11 +0.45% ... AVG H/L/C currently $131.86.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:38:15 PM

Philip Morris (PM) $53.90 +5.56% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:37:47 PM

12:30 PM EDT Money Flow (Table) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:32:28 PM

VXO.X 27.02 -4.89% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:32:11 PM

VXN.X 28.92 +0.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:31:54 PM

VIX.X 25.67 -0.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:30:05 PM

DJ- US Welcomes "Positive Step" From Iraq Shiite Leader Sadr

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 12:29:28 PM

So far, the SPX appears to be holding the support of both its 15-minute 9-ema into this 15-minute close and its 30-minute 9-ema into this 30-minute close. The 30-minute version, more reliable, is now at about 1321.40.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:29:10 PM

Maybe just some end of quarter balancing.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:28:34 PM

Beetle's Balanced Benchmark Link

Subtotals of major equity trackers (-10.48% for quarter) rather similar to various commodity subtotals (+10.72%) for QTD.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:23:43 PM

GLD $90.70 -1.28% ... ~$907.00/ounce spot

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:22:55 PM

USO $81.89 -2.93% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:22:36 PM

EUR/USD 1.5796 (unchanged)

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:20:51 PM

Roughly 4 hours. 4 hours until end of Q1.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 12:20:46 PM

To put today's movements in perspective, the SPX has remained within a descending price channel that's been in place since late last Tuesday. Today's low pierced the support, but closed the first 15-minute period above it. So, this is still just chopping around within that channel, with the channel's boundaries now at about 1311.80 on the bottom and 1331.50-1332 on the top.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:20:09 PM

Call them $15.50 / $38.00 ????

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:19:50 PM

GG $37.95 -3.92% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:19:32 PM

SWC $15.49 -3.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:17:21 PM

NYSE A/D 1,802/1,201

NASDAQ A/D 1,566/1,204

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 12:17:11 PM

Maudlin thinks we are still in the early innings of the bursting housing and credit bubbles.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 12:17:29 PM

Maudlin says nationwide resale stabability will return 2011 - yet that's only 5 years away.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 12:15:05 PM

But please remember there are parts of the country where homes are quite affordable. I live in Franklin county and it is the fastest growing (yes I said GROWING) county in Washington and 21st nationwide. We never saw a realestate boom so we are not experiencing the realestate bust.

We also have very nice weather here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:14:57 PM

IWM's session low/high has been $67.82/$68.74

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:13:58 PM

Swing trade short lower stop alert! ... for the 1/2 position iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) $68.55 +0.52% .... to $68.82 (from $69.82).

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 12:12:49 PM

John Mauldin, author of "Just one Thing", does not think housing has reached a bottom yet. He does not think we are anywhere near a bottom. He thinks Seattle has another 16% to go, LA another 21% to go and Riverside CA another 36% yet to fall. WHY?

First of all we simply built more homes than the nation could absorb. In 2005 alone, there were 48% more housing-related transaction than there should have been.

Secondly the dramatic drop in the availability of subprime mortgages has reduced the number of potential home buyers. In many markets, the affordability of housing simply prices out many potential middle-class buyers. And potential buyers of rental properties have not seen prices drop to where they can make a profit by buying and renting the homes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:10:10 PM

12:00 PM EDT Currencies (screen capture) with quick USO and GLD benchmarks Link

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 12:06:26 PM

The DOW and SPX made it above this morning's early spike high but NDX has not been able to do the same. It always concerns me when tech stocks are lagging. But if the bulls can keep this going, the DOW is closer than SPX to the top of its down-channel, currently near 12314 which coincides with the 30-min 100/130 moving averages: Link

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 12:04:39 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema has now turned higher. It's 1321.47, so bulls want to see that maintained on 15-minute closes if there are pullbacks. The OEX's is 614.16.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:00:31 PM

PBR $102.31 +1.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 12:00:17 PM

TSO $29.07 -0.54% ....

VLO $48.28 -1.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:59:28 AM

Currencies look relatively quiet ... EUR/USD 1.5801

USD/JPY 99.85

GBP/USD 1.9856

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:57:33 AM

DJ- Nymex Crude Plunges Amid Commodity Selloff

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:56:41 AM

I haven't seen any breaking news alerts to explain oils decline.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:55:57 AM

DJ- Nymex Crude Drops $4 To $101.59/Bbl

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 11:55:23 AM

For the first time since midday on 3/27, the SPX has produced a 30-minute close above the 30-minute 9-ema. Now it's breaking above the next potential resistance that was near 1322.50. First, we saw signs of stabilization and now an improvement in tenor. If the SPX should continue to climb, watch potentially strong resistance near 1330.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:53:07 AM

USO darts below 3/19/08 expiration close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:52:32 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) Alert! $82.23 -2.57% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:50:14 AM

iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) $68.66 +0.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:49:37 AM

Russell 2000 (RUT.X) 688.65 +0.80% ... 19.1% conventional here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:45:59 AM


DJ- Vacation-home sales drop 30.6% to 740,000 in 2007, with the median price slipping 2.5% to $195,000. And speculators continue to exit the market: Homes bought purely for investment plunge 18.1% to 1.35 million last year.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:45:11 AM


DJ- Gerald H. Silk, a partner at Bernstein Litowitz Berger & Grossmann, says his firm is advising a number of investors in auction-rate securities market who are considering either pursuing arbitration claims against their brokers or taking the firms to court.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:44:36 AM


DJ- UBS, using an internal model to value the securities, will mark them down this afternoon and inform clients via their online statements shortly thereafter. The markdowns will range from a few percentage points to more than 20%, sources say.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:41:10 AM


DJ- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services cuts Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. to junk, saying the company "has failed to implement a strategic plan to re-establish itself as a viable operating entity."

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:39:28 AM


DJ- Citigroup and Wachovia will likely have to announce dividend cuts next month, as shrinking earnings will make it hard to support current payouts, Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney says in a note to clients.

C $21.23 +1.96% ...

WB $27.00 +3.88% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:37:40 AM


DJ- Australia and New Zealand Banking Group and Merrill Lynch move quickly to start to recoup more than $917 million owed to them by failed stockbroker and margin lender Opes Prime, say people familiar with the situation.

MER $40.36 +1.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:35:27 AM


DJ- The Department of Agriculture says farmers will be planting significantly less corn and more soybeans this year than was forecast in February, but corn planting will stay at historically high levels and prices will stay strong.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:34:49 AM


DJ- Credit Suisse Group is looking to expand into Vietnam's share underwriting market, and plans to decide on joint-venture plans by the end of this year, according to its chief executive for Asia Pacific.

CS $51.10 +2.01% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:33:53 AM


DJ- Gold Fields, the second-largest gold producer in Africa, says Nick Holland will become chief executive from May 1, replacing Ian Cockerill. News of Cockerill resignation weighs on Gold Fields' shares, which decline 2.3%.

GFI $14.09 -2.22% ...

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 11:32:26 AM

For once lately, a move comes when expected, but it's just a little move so far. As noted in my 11:17:58 post, it was time for the SPX to either attempt to rise above the 30-minute 9-ema or pull back sharply from that moving average. The SPX attempts to move higher. It has hit the further potentially strong resistance I mentioned, that at 1322.40, and it's stalling there. The outcome is not yet known, but at least all those efforts to stabilize did result in an attempted push higher. The SPX is at 1321.82 as I type.

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 11:18:42 AM

Last night I showed potential support for the DOW near 12150 at the bottom of a parallel up-channel. That support level is now closer to 12166 and matches the bottom of its down-channel from March 24th (similar to the one I showed on the SPX 30-min chart): Link . Like the NDX pattern it would be more bullish to see some bullish divergences at the new lows but the setup here, especially with the choppy pullback, continues to look bullish. However, a drop much below 12150 would be bearish.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 11:17:58 AM

It's getting to be about time for the SPX to either break up (or attempt to do so) through its 30-minute 9-ema, now at 1320.27, or to be pushed more strongly back from it. If the SPX does attempt to move higher, watch out for potential resistance on 30-minute closes now at 1322.44, as that could be strong, too. If it's pushed back, watch for potential targets near 1315.40 or maybe as low as 1312.30.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:17:52 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:13:22 AM

Volume looks anemic at the NASDAQ

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 11:00:50 AM


DJ- Intel and STMicroelectronics' flash memory chip joint venture aims to turn a profit within this year, banking on growth in demand for chips used in wireless devices, set-top boxes and data storage, says the venture's chief executive.

INTC $20.98 +0.96% ...

STM $10.70 +3.28% ...

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 11:00:47 AM

Another sign of an attempt to stabilize: the SPX has not yet dropped back toward 1312-1313.50 although the potential for it to do so had been set up. The SPX still has that potential resistance on 30-minute closes from just above 1320 up to 1322.50, however.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 10:59:30 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $28.59 +0.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 10:59:07 AM


DJ- Global semiconductor chip sales rise 1.5% in February versus a year ago, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association, which says prices continue to tumble for memory products despite a rise in total units sold.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 10:57:54 AM


DJ- AstraZeneca says it's stopping a clinical study of its blockbuster drug Crestor early after the cholesterol-lowering pill showed clear benefits over a placebo.

AZN $37.29 +2.05% ...

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 10:56:50 AM

NDX remains trapped in what appears to be a bullish descending wedge. One problem with this pattern is that there should be more evidence of bullish divergence as it drops lower and there isn't any. Needless to say it would be very bearish to see price drop out the bottom. Conversely, a break of its downtrend line, currently near 1780, should be a sign the pullback is finished. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 10:56:43 AM


DJ- Lehman Brothers files a lawsuit against major Japanese trading company Marubeni, demanding $350 million in an unfolding case of alleged massive fraud.

LEH $38.38 +1.34% ...

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 10:55:26 AM

Anyone hear about the show, "21"? It is about a group of MIT students in the early 90's who came up with a way to win at 21 in Vegas. When one fellow wanted to make changes to how they played Kevin Spacey says, "If you change the rules, you change the game." That is so true in trading.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 10:53:53 AM


DJ- A panel of cardiologists calls on physicians to sharply curtail use of blockbuster cholesterol drugs Vytorin and Zetia, marketed by Merck and Schering-Plough as benefits of both are questioned.

MRK $37.41 -15.90% ...

SGP $14.41 -25.98% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 10:47:05 AM

US Housing And Urban Development Secretary Jackson Resigns

DJ- U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Alphonso Jackson announced Monday morning that he would step down, effective April 18.

"There comes a time when one must attend more diligently to personal and family matters," Jackson said in a brief press conference. "Now is such a time for me."

Jackson's resignation comes at a sensitive time in the mortgage market as the housing crisis continues to weigh on the economy and threatens the strength of credit markets.

HUD, which aims to provide affordable housing and promote economic development, has lately been a high-profile agency in the Bush administration as homeowners try to weather turmoil in the housing market.

The FBI has been examining the ties between Jackson and a friend who was paid $392,000 by Jackson's department as a construction manager in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

A more recent problem for Jackson stems from a Philadelphia redevelopment deal. That city's housing authority has filed a lawsuit charging Jackson tried to punish the agency for blocking a deal involving a friend of his.

Earlier this month, two Democratic senators - Patty Murray of Washington state and Christopher Dodd of Connecticut - called for Jackson to resign. They argued allegations of cronyism were proving too much of a distraction at a time when housing issues are a top concern for the nation.

Jackson, who had previously served as president of utility American Electric Power-Texas, joined the Bush administration in June 2001 as HUD's deputy secretary and chief operating officer. The Senate confirmed him as secretary in March 2004.

"Seven years ago, President Bush gave me an extraordinary opportunity to serve HUD and the nation. I am truly grateful for the opportunity," he said, without mentioning any of the current controversies.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 10:44:05 AM

Treasury's Paulson (bullet points)
Regulatory Overhaul Will Take "Many Years"
Reform should start after market turmoil over
Fed needs "broad" powers over entire financial markets
Fed should go wherever "it thinks it needs to go"
Reform blueprint "will generate some controversy"
Don't assume permanent broker discount window access
Housing remains biggest risk and "highest priority"

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 10:37:31 AM

The OEX hasn't yet broken the support now at 610.97 on 15-minute closes, so watch for potential support from there down to 609.15-609.73.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 10:36:42 AM

An SPX drop back to 1312-1313.48 looks possible, but watch for potential support there on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 10:25:01 AM

So far, the SPX still attempts to stabilize on descending potential support on 15-minute closes, now at 1317.83. Although the support is descending, that's actually an improvement over late Friday afternoon. It had looked then as if the SPX was showing Keltner-style bullish divergences and would bounce from that support (as I posted it might do) but then the SPX keeled over again and broke through that potential support. Now it's holding again.

When I look at the 30-minute chart, though, the slight improvement in tenor is gone. The SPX still forms 30-minute closes beneath the 9-ema and the bullish/bearish benchmark at 1322.60.

My conclusion? We're seeing evidence of an attempt to stabilize, but we're not yet seeing proof of any improvement in tenor.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 10:21:29 AM

Option Symbol Change Alert! ... Those that took my Altria MO June $75 Call (MO-FO) trade from 2/07/08, you should have a Philip Morris PM June $75 Call (MZS-FO) in your account.

PM $53.05 +3.89% ... MZS-FO $3.15 x $3.45.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 10:16:23 AM

On the SPX's 30-minute chart, at least, nothing has changed since about midday on Thursday. The 30-minute 9-ema, now at about 1320.80, continues to hold on 30-minute closes. While those with bullish hopes are glad to see the SPX attempting to steady near the 15-minute version now just above 1319 and further potential support on 15-minute closes near 1318, the SPX needs to maintain values above that 30-minute version before anything other than attempt to stabilize has been seen.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 10:16:13 AM

NEW YORK(MarketWatch) -- Business activity in the Chicago region continued to contract in March, but the contraction was less severe than in February, according to a survey of corporate purchasing managers released Friday. The Chicago purchasing managers index was at 48.2% in March compared with 44.5% in February. Readings under 50% indicate overall business contraction. The prices paid index rose to 83.9% in March compared with 79.4% in February. The new orders index rose to 53.9% vs. 48.8% in July.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 10:12:09 AM

Reminders: ... Philip Morris Intl. (NYSE:PM) $52.97 +3.74% ... joins S&P 500; replaces Circuit City (NYSE:CC) $3.99 +1.26%.

PM also added to OEX; replaces Allegheny Tech (ATI) $72.12 +1.00%. ATI remains an SPX component.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 10:11:29 AM

Paulson: Market must recover before any changes are made

Paulson: Current regulatory structure didn't cause crisis

Paulson says it will take years to implement blueprint

Paulson: Wrong to say blueprint advocates less regulation

Paulson defends regulatory blueprint

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 10:09:04 AM

No follow through to the buy program and we remain stuck near the flat line.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 10:03:04 AM

The A/D line approached the 3/25 high of 1046, with a high today of 1025, and turned back. That's not good. Those with bullish hopes want it to consolidate near its current 755 level, perhaps down to about 550, but don't want it to drop much deeper before bouncing again. It's at 729 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 9:59:26 AM

The next potentially strong resistance level for the SPX is just overhead, from about 1322-1322.66 on 30-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 9:58:24 AM

North American Palladium (PAL) $5.47 -2.32% ...

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 9:57:53 AM

So far, the TRAN isn't looking too healthy. It did bounce from potential Keltner support now at 4709.85 on 15-minute closes, but it didn't get anywhere near its 15-minute 9-ema, now at 4753.37 or even above lower resistance at 4739.15. It may be headed back to retest that potential support instead. The TRAN is at 4724.79 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 9:56:34 AM

June Palladium (pa08m) $449.00 -1.29% ... off $5.90

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 9:55:15 AM

Continue to hold the SWC May $17.50 Put (SWC-QW) ... currently $3.00 x $3.20

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 9:54:27 AM

The OEX's 15-minute 9-ema is now at 612.24 with further potential support now at 611.63. The SPX is at 612.78 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 9:54:21 AM

Swing trade put exit alert! ... for the one (1) Stillwater Mining SWC April $20 Put (SWC-PD) at the bid of $4.40.

SWC $15.55 -2.81%.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 9:53:09 AM

The first 15-minute SPX close was at the 15-minute 9-ema, not really above it. The SPX is now above that moving average, but so far printing an unconvincing doji above it. Those with bullish hopes want a more convincing gain or at least a 15-minute close above the potential resistance-turned-support that now ranges down to 1318.73.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2008 9:51:14 AM

US Chicago Purch. Mgmt Adj Mar Index 48.2 Vs. Feb 44.5
Prices Paid Index 83.9 Vs. Feb 79.4
Supplier Deliveries 44.6 Vs. Feb 33.5
New Orders Index 53.9 Vs. Feb 48.8

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 9:47:49 AM

A big buy program spiked the indices higher. Now we'll see if there will be any follow through.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 9:45:56 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line is now 532, right at potential trendline resistance, with potentially strong Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes at 817. So, we'll go into this release with the A/D line at least right under resistance, ready to pop above or roll down under, depending on the response . . . . While I typed, the A/D line rose to 856, piercing it by a little. Same outlook, though.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 9:45:05 AM

Vix is making new daily lows so that is telling me the bulls are pulling ahead. I was just stopped on a short which is another indication the bulls are getting stronger.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 9:43:20 AM

If you didn't see my early post or Jane's, remember that the 9:45 am ET release can be and often is market-moving. If you've got too much money at risk, you might consider taking steps to remove some of that risk.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 9:42:14 AM

The A/D line has crossed the bullish/bearish benchmark during this 15-minute period, piercing it, but is back above it again. So far, we just don't know the eventual outcome, but this quick bounce from the day's low of -237 is at least more bullish than no bounce! The A/D line is currently +85 with potential support on 15-minute close now near -5.63.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 9:42:13 AM

AD line is paltry +88 so no one is in control this morning.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 9:34:54 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line opened barely positive, but on a Kelter basis, it's above the bullish/bearish benchmark on the 15-minute chart. Potentially strong support is now near about -5. Potentially strong resistance is near +740. The A/D line is 213, rising since the open. Bulls want it to continue to do so, but should remember that it doesn't have all that far to rise before it faces potentially strong resistance. Good old trendline resistance begins at about +550.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 9:33:12 AM

Economic Reports to watch out for today

9:45a.m. Mar Chicago PMI. Expected: 46.3. Previous: 44.5.

10:30a.m. Mar Dallas Fed Mfg Production Index. Previous: 7.1.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 9:31:54 AM

The SPX ended the week last week sitting on potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes right about 1315. If there's an early downturn, that potential support will get tugged a little lower, but unless the SPX action is to create a breakout mode, the potential support could hold on 15-minute closes. Be aware that the SPX is between the weekly 200-ema and 200-sma, with the 200-sma now at 1302.09.

The weekly candle was not a bullish one, however. Neither was the daily candle, of course. The possibility of a further downturn through the bearish right triangle on the daily chart must be considered even while bears have to be aware of potential support, too.

If the SPX does a down-all-day ugly kind of day, where might it go? The 30-minute chart suggests a potential target now near 1276. If there's a steep decline, that target will edge lower. If there's a gentle stepwise descent filled with lots of pauses to consolidate, it will rise.

The early action might be important, then. Those who want bounces want to see the SPX stabilize in the first few minutes and then soon begin sustaining values above 1318-1319.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 9:28:05 AM

I will be taking a long position in Gold once we get a close above the 940-960 resistance area. That could be today. Link

Keene Little : 3/31/2008 9:26:57 AM

Equity futures had dropped steadily overnight to a 4:00 AM low and then rallied sharply (about 10 ES points) to about 8:00 AM. That rally looks a little suspicious and makes me think it will get retraced so a retest of the overnight lows would not surprise me (ES 1309.50, YM 12158). That could get the DOW down to around 12150, the level mentioned in the DOW chart posted last night. That's when the bulls will need to do their thing.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 9:23:59 AM

Here is McMillan's weekly commentary from last Friday. It arrived in my inbox about an hour AFTER the market closed on Friday.

When the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) closed above 1340 last Monday -- its second strong rally day in a row -- it turned a number of intermediate- term indicators positive. That's the good news. The bad news is that the market has not been able to follow through on that positive tone, and thus has already put a number of these indicators in jeopardy.

The upside breakout above 1340 turned the $SPX chart short- term bullish. After a brief move higher, the index fell back, testing the 1330-1340 support area. That test failed today, as $SPX closed at 1325. That's not good, but it's not a complete deal breaker either. A pattern of higher highs and higher lows can still be established if the next rally carries $SPX above 1350. However, if $SPX closes back below its 20-day moving average -- currently at 1320 -- then we'd downgrade the $SPX chart to bearish once again.

Equity-only put-call ratios turned bullish this week as well. Not only that, but the buy signals emanated from a very high level on the chart, which normally provides the buy signal with even more validity. Our computer analyses "called" these buy signals quickly, as you can see from Figures 2 and 3 that the averages have only just begun to curl over and head downward. They will remain on buy signals unless new highs are made in the ratios.

Market breadth turned positive with Monday's breakout as well, generating buy signals. In some ways, breadth is giving its best showing in quite a while, as it's actually stronger than price movement this week.

The volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) gave buy signals last week, when they spiked up during the retest of the $SPX lows, and then declined sharply that day and the next. Those spike peak buy signals are intermediate-term buy signals and they remain in effect.

In summary, this market is very skittish, and short-term indicators such as $VIX premium levels -- or the daily $VIX put-call readings, as explained in the feature article -- seem to be more important to market movement than intermediate-term indicators are.

Linda Piazza : 3/31/2008 9:22:46 AM

When making early morning trading decisions (whether to enter, whether to exit, whether to adjust positions), remember the Chicago PMI at 9:45 am ET. That number can and often does move markets.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 9:19:25 AM

All American Equity futures markets made a new overnight low around 4:00AM EDT but have now retraced their entire respective overnight range. Once again, I see the NDX futures (NQ) is the stronger market since it is the only market to not break its previous day low and the only to market to also break to a new overnight high. Link

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 9:11:43 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is calling for extensive, wide-ranging reforms to the way the government regulates financial markets, including proposals to give the Federal Reserve more power and create new bodies to monitor mortgages and other transactions.

Paulson is slated to formally present the Treasury Department's new plan in a speech scheduled for Monday morning.

Among the many items in the plan is a proposal to make the Fed "responsible for overall issues of financial market stability," according to the executive summary.

Paulson's recommendations come on the heels of the Fed and Treasury's dramatic bailout of Bear Stearns Cos (and other emergency acts, including allowing investment banks to borrow directly from the Fed.

In addition to the Fed's current powers to provide liquidity through its monetary policy tools, the central bank "should be provided with a different, yet critically important regulatory role and broad powers focusing on the overall financial system," the executive summary said.

The new role for the central bank would include "the responsibility and authority to gather appropriate information, disclose information, collaborate with the other regulators on rule writing, and take corrective actions when necessary in the interest of overall financial market stability," it said, adding that this was a "long-term" component of the plan.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2008 9:10:01 AM

A busy week full of economic reports starts with the release of a Chicago-area manufacturing poll, and ending with the monthly jobs report.

Also today is a report from the Agriculture Department on how much land U.S. farmers will devote to certain crops, which may move agricultural futures.

Markets will also get its first opportunity to react to a new plan to regulate financial markets, including proposals to give the Federal Reserve more power and create new bodies to monitor mortgages and other transactions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is due to announce the changes this morning.

Market Monitor Archives