Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 11:38:53 PM

DJ (source)- Low Cost Carrier Skybus Airlines To Cease Operations

DJ- A spokeswoman for the Columbus airport says low-cost carrier Skybus Airlines is ceasing operations. Angie Neal of Port Columbus International Airport says the airline's goal is to operate all scheduled flights Friday night. Skybus spokesman Bob Tenenbaum would not confirm the airline was shutting down but said the company would make an announcement later Friday. The Columbus Dispatch reported on its Web site that the Columbus-based airline makes 80 daily flights to 15 U.S. cities. The airline operates hub with about 100 employees at the Piedmont Triad International Airport at Greensboro, N.C.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 11:28:33 PM

Last two (2) and upcoming WEEKLY Pivot Matrix at this Link

Note(s): For the first time this year, SPX/SPY, NDX/QQQQ and RUT.X see trade at WKLY R2. NDX/QQQQ see a CLOSE ABOVE!

The very narrow INDU/DIA did see trade at WKLY R2 the week of 02/25-02/29.

The RUT.X has now gone three (3) consecutive weeks without seeing a trade at a WKLY S1. My records show we would have to go back to the four (4) week's of 09/17-9/21, 9/24-9/28, 10/01-10/05 and 10/08-10/12 to witness such an event.

OI Technical Staff : 4/4/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 9:23:26 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 8:45:47 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 4:35:01 PM

BEA Announces Stockholder Approval Of Merger With Oracle

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 4:30:18 PM

Not seeing any financial terms of CPKI deal. Deals calls for at least three restaurants within next two years.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 4:27:09 PM

DJ- Report- Microsoft May See Less Value In Yahoo

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 4:26:04 PM

Clintons Report Total Income Of $109.2 Mln In 2000-07

Pay Total $33.8 Mln In Taxes In 2000-07

Give $10.26 Mln To Charity 2000-07

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 4:22:01 PM

Yahoo! (YHOO) $28.36 +0.81% ... slips to $27.14 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 4:19:51 PM

S&P Price/Earnings Ratio At 16.10, Up From 16.09

DJ- The price/earnings ratio of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index at the close of trading Friday was 16.10.

On Thursday, the ratio ended at 16.09.

The price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 measures the index's closing level divided by the index's total earnings, as reported under generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, for the most recent year.

In 2007, the most recently reported year, S&P 500 companies reported earnings of $85.12 a share.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 4:18:10 PM

National Jumbo CDs Down $20.9 Bln; Home Equity Down $100 Mln Latest Week

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 4:17:28 PM

US Bank Business Loans Up $8.2 Bln In Latest Week

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 4:13:42 PM

DJ Hedge Fund Strategy Benchmarks Link

Keene Little : 4/4/2008 4:07:15 PM

The SPX 120-min chart that I showed earlier ( Link ) showed another leg up (green) into next week and potentially topping out around 1416. The Fibs and trend lines actually cross on Monday April 14th. Another leg down to the uptrend line could finish the pullback correction from Wednesday which would set up that rally leg.

A Fib projection for the leg down is just under 1350 which crosses the uptrend line mid day on Monday and that becomes the key level to the downside, shown a little closer on the 60-min chart: Link . We could rally right from here but it would actually be more bullish (from an EW perspective) to get the pullback first. And then as long as 1350 holds we should see a bullish week.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 4:06:16 PM

California Pizza Kitchen Signs Franchise Deal With Gourmet Gulf Co. Of Dubai

CPKI $14.46 +2.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 4:04:54 PM

NYSE: Short Interest At March 31 Rises To 16.1B Shares; Equals 4.2% Shares

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 3:56:17 PM

Nymex May Crude Oil (cl08k) settled up $2.40, or +2.31% at $106.23.

Unleaded (rb08k) settled up $0.0327, or +1.20% at $2.7567.

My "crack spread" calculation comes out at 25.95.

Last Friday's tabulation was 25.69.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 3:45:28 PM

Can do some damage with just 100 shares in a minute or two. May the YM look like it is standing still.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 3:44:17 PM

It's a wild one isn't it? CME $514.07

Keene Little : 4/4/2008 3:43:51 PM

Next up (down) for support is the 62% retracement of today's bounce--DOW 12590 (SPX already broke its equivalent level at 1369.68).

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 3:39:07 PM

Barring a big move in the last minutes of the day, the SPX will end the day with another consolidation day. If you haven't already, begin making decisions about whether you'll hold over the weekend. My impression is the same as it was last night when writing the Wrap: it looks possible, at least, that the SPX will dip toward 1355-1356 and maybe even 1344-1345 over the next few trading days. I thought last night that a blip up toward 1378 first couldn't be excluded, and the SPX got higher than that, but the overall picture hasn't changed. Although the SPX can break higher at any time, even in the most bullish of rally times the SPX tended to rally, then move sideways while the 10-sma rose up underneath it, dip down to it when it got close enough and then rise from that test. The presence of any bounce attempt and the quality of that bounce attempt, if this unfolds, should tell us something about the markets, but right now, we just likely end the week with the SPX jammed at the descending trendline resistance (trendline off 2/04 and 2/26 and 2/27 highs) and the 38.2% retracement of its decline off October levels. If you think this absolutely guarantees a breakout, take another look at 2/04 and 2/26 and 2/27. One day, we'll get a breakout. Maybe next week. Who knows? But for now, my best guess is sideways consolidation until the 10-sma rises up beneath it and then a dip down to the 10-sma and who knows what after that.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 3:26:07 PM

US Says Net $3.96 Billion Treasurys Reconstituted In March

DJ- There was a net reconstitution of $3.96 billion of U.S. Treasurys in March, the Treasury Department said Friday.

That followed a net stripping of $1.25 billion in February and a net stripping of $4.83 billion in January.

By stripping the interest payment from the principal payment on outstanding Treasury securities, zero-coupon Treasurys are created. To reassemble, or reconstitute, a security, a financial institution or securities broker must obtain the appropriate principal component and all related unmatured interest components for the security being reconstituted.

A table of holdings of Treasurys in stripped form as of April 4, 2008, will be available Friday afternoon.

Keene Little : 4/4/2008 3:25:40 PM

If this pullback is all just part of a larger sloppy correction, watch for possible support where the pullback will have two equal legs down--SPX 1370.27 (ES 1372), DOW 12608 (YM 12602).

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 3:20:40 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/4/2008 3:06:09 PM

CME update: The other stock I've been following, somewhat irregularly, appears to be in a bear flag pattern since the March low, similar to the broader market (and GOOG). A Fib level at 524.85 crosses its downtrend line from December on April 9th, next Wednesday. The 50-dma is also very close to that level. Link

That would make a good place to test the short side. If CME rallies above 527.68, the January low, it would negate the bearish wave count (dark red) and suggest we'll see the rally push higher, potentially up to 600. That's where the broken uptrend line from April 2005 is located and it's slightly above both the 100 and 200-dma's.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 3:03:13 PM

The bond market is closing and that sometimes results in a change in tenor. Be watchful for that possibility, especially on a Friday afternoon. The A/D line's current setup doesn't show any kind of change as being likely but instead a chopping back and forth being more likely, but you never know.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 2:53:44 PM

The A/D line climbs again and now has potential resistance on 15-minute closes from 1018-1030. It's 772 as I type. Potential resistance on 15-minute closes gathers from 1380.23-1382.56 for the SPX and is nearer 638 and then 640 for the OEX.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 2:50:53 PM

GLD $0.40-box to match futures Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 2:47:31 PM

EUR/USD 1.5723

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 2:47:14 PM

Swing trade long alert! ... for 1/4 position in the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) at the offer of $90.16 +0.82%. Stop goes $88.00. Target $96.00.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 2:43:09 PM

Mexico Condemns Venezuelan Nationalization Of Cement Industry

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 2:30:29 PM

The A/D line dove right down to next potentially strong support, its breakout level from earlier this afternoon. That's near 450-500 with the A/D line now at 463. This is of course potential support, but potential only.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 2:28:08 PM

That news hit the wire exactly at 02:00. YM traders can tie to that "ca-chunk"

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 2:27:08 PM

MBIA, Inc. (MBI) $13.86 -3.00% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 2:26:44 PM

Fitch: MBIA Inc. Long-Term Rating Cut To A From AA

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 2:26:06 PM

Fitch: MBIA's IFS Cut To 'AA' From 'AAA'; Off Watch Negative

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 2:13:36 PM

Ca-chunk

Keene Little : 4/4/2008 2:12:20 PM

With the DOW still struggling below the 12700 level and SPX against its 1380 level, while VIX drops down towards its uptrend line from last June ( Link ) it's hard to feel bullish this market.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 2:00:19 PM

The A/D line is now pulling back after having hit that resistance that's now at 1000.27. It now has potential support near 745, however, but bulls should keep in mind that the resistance being tested often does cap or at least slow gains. Here's a chart that shows why I thought there might be resistance for the A/D line near 1000 and what's happened: Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2008 1:52:14 PM

Here is McMillan's weekly update - The broad stock market has a much more positive technical background. Our intermediate-term indicators are positive and on official buy signals. They had slipped some last week but never rolled over to sell signals. Then this week's strong rally brought them back from the brink, and they remain positive.

The $SPX chart has, in some respects, become muddled. But its general trend is now up, so that is positive. $SPX sliced back and forth through supposed support and resistance levels between 1320 and 1340 several times in the last two weeks. Thus, those levels are no longer significant as support or resistance. However, the chart clearly shows a higher high, higher low pattern, as marked in Figure 1. This is the sort of thing that is necessary as the first step towards building a lasting uptrend. This pattern remains positive as long as $SPX remains above the uptrend (blue) line on the chart. On the cautionary side, there remains heavy resistance at 1390-1400.

The equity-only put-call ratios had flirted with new highs at the end of last week, but have since backed off and are trending downward again. Thus, they are on (re)confirmed buy signals. These put-call ratios are one of our most trustworthy and long-term indicators. Market breadth has been relatively strong over the past few weeks. Last week's decline was accompanied by only modestly negative breadth. Breadth strengthened on this week's rally and has now moved to overbought status. That is bullish, as long as breadth continues to expand.

Finally, the volatility indices are bullish as well. They were the first to give intermediate-term buy signals, with their spike peaks back in mid-March (see Figure 4). However, $VIX had recently stalled near 25, but this week's drop below that level (re)confirmed the buy signals here as well.

In summary, the bears had a chance to regain control of this market last week, when $SPX declined about 50 points (from 1360 to 1310). However, none of the intermediate-term indicators rolled over to sell signals, which was a bullish divergence. And their refusal to do so was justified this week when prices moved higher again. So, at a minimum, we expect $SPX to test the 1390-1400 level. If it can close above there, a much stronger rally can take place.

But does this mean the bear market is over, and we can load up on bullish positions? Not really, because there was considerable damage done during the January and March declines, and it would not be out of the question to have yet another retest of the lows near $SPX 1260 -- much as there were three retests of the lows at the end of the 2000-2003 bear market. But for now, enjoy the bullish picture that has emerged.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 1:48:59 PM

YM 12,671 ... when initial profile, the short looked like a "slam dunk" to at least 12,614 and pullback to D Piv and its 5-min intrvl 50-pd.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 1:41:00 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/4/2008 1:37:27 PM

AAPL update: Bulls are enjoying the taste of the AAPL lately, currently printing 154 after dropping below 120 in February. But here's where I'd be a little cautious if long the stock. The 100-dma is at 151.66 and there's a Fib projection at 155 for the bounce off the February low. There is the potential for AAPL to turn back down from here and start another leg down. Link

Keene Little : 4/4/2008 1:33:50 PM

The techs are strong but NDX is getting near the trend line along the highs since March 12th, currently just under 1894 (NDX printing 1884 here). Negative divergences are also showing up now at the new highs so the rally appears to be losing momentum.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 1:32:41 PM

The A/D line has now touched and even pierced by a small amount the next potential Keltner resistance. Keep those profit-protecting plans in place if in bullish trades, but so far, the SPX continues bouncing from its 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1376.07 and the A/D line gains. Potential resistance on the SPX's chart is now 1383.15-1385.83 on the 30-minute chart, just above 1381 on the 15-minute version.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 1:31:44 PM

Good gravy ... NYSE NH/NL 61:18

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 1:29:47 PM

USD/JPY 102.00 ... back above its 5-min intvl 21-pd SMA

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 1:29:15 PM

YM short stop alert! 12,681

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 1:28:29 PM

YM short finger on the button alert! ... 12,676

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 1:23:49 PM

Pivotal moment here.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 1:21:34 PM

The A/D line did break up toward next resistance, now at 979.40. In less volatile times, this channel's upper boundary usually holds as resistance, just as its lower boundary usually holds as support, as it did this morning. With the SPX also having hit that potential upside target zone and potential resistance I mentioned earlier, too, it's time to again watch for rollover potential. Watch the 15-minute 9-ema now at 1375.44 for short-term guidance.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2008 1:17:28 PM

AD line is now +912

Keene Little : 4/4/2008 1:18:03 PM

GOOG update: It's been a while since I've posted anything on GOOG. The choppy climb off the March low looks like a bear flag and it could continue chopping higher into mid April where it would meet the top of its parallel down-channel for price action since its November high, potentially right at 500. Link

But the bounce could end literally at any time and the wave pattern calls for a 5th wave down (which would then set up a stronger bounce into the summer) with a potential downside target in the 350-370 area, depending on where the bounce off the March low finishes.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2008 1:14:06 PM

Here are the overnight ranges. NDX futures (NQ) are trading above its ON high, Russell 2000 (ER) is testing its ON high and the DOW and S&P are barely above their respective previous day highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 1:09:12 PM

USD/JPY 101.96

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 1:08:21 PM

YM short alert! here at 12,667. Stop 12,681. Target 12,560.

Keene Little : 4/4/2008 1:02:55 PM

I'm not rure if we're going to get a bullish resolution out of this or not. If it's going to be part of a choppy climb higher then two equal legs up from this morning's now could lead to a deeper pullback. That's near SPX 1380 (ES 1381.75) and DOW 12686 (same for YM).

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 12:47:44 PM

Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 776.44 +2.31% ... 38.2% conventional. (October high to 1/23/08 low). BTK.X fell to -38.2% on 3/17/08.

Keene Little : 4/4/2008 12:39:34 PM

If the DOW can push above 12700 I think we could be off to the races. But if it drops back down again then we could instead be stuck in a sideways/down consolidation pattern. It takes a break below 12400 to turn it more bearish. 30-min chart update: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 12:29:24 PM

US Dollar Index (DXY) 71.95 -0.36% ... Need I post more? I think not.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 12:27:56 PM

Senate Moves Toward Mid-Week Vote On Housing Package

DJ- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., on Friday moved to end debate on legislation to help homeowners and businesses buffeted by home-mortgage woes, setting up a key procedural vote Tuesday.

Reid filed for cloture on the bill Friday morning, setting up a vote at 2:15 p.m. Tuesday. If the bill clears the 60 votes needed to invoke cloture, the Senate could take a final vote on the measure Wednesday.

The Senate Friday voted to add tax breaks for unprofitable businesses and Gulf Coast property owners affected by the 2005 hurricanes.

It adopted, by 76-2, an amendment from Sen. George Voinovich, R-Ohio, that would help unprofitable businesses benefit from accelerated depreciation provisions in stimulus legislation passed earlier this year.

While that law allowed business owners to write off 50% of the costs of new equipment upfront, it is of no use to businesses that were in the red and therefore have no tax liability.

The Voinovich provision would allow firms to elect to offset the cost of new investments with a tax refund based on accumulated research and development or alternative minimum tax credits. To gain support for the amendment, Voinovich scaled back the amendment, reducing its cost to $1.4 billion from $3.4 billion over 10 years.

The Senate also accepted, 74-5, an amendment from Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., that lowers the tax bill of taxpayers who took both casualty loss deductions for property that was destroyed, and received rebuilding grants from Louisiana or Mississippi state programs. That amendment adds just over $1 billion to the cost of the bill.

Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., chief sponsor of the Senate Housing measure, pleaded with senators Friday to withdraw amendments that don't pertain directly to the housing imbroglio. Sens. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., and John Ensign, D-Nev., are attempting to attach $6 billion in tax breaks for wind, solar and other renewable energy sources to the bill.

"This is a housing bill," said Dodd. "All of a sudden I find myself dealing with every other issue in creation here."

The bill provides a combination of tax breaks for homeowners and businesses, money for states to deal with foreclosed homes, and improved disclosures for borrowers taking out a mortgage.

It also provides a temporary business tax break for net operating losses, and boosts Federal Housing Administration loan limits.

Keene Little : 4/4/2008 12:27:22 PM

I still want to see SPX climb above 1380 before feeling too bullish here.

Keene Little : 4/4/2008 12:20:47 PM

Techs and small caps to new highs above yesterday's and SPX is not far behind (the DOW is the laggard). This could turn bullish.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2008 12:19:43 PM

SPX support has held and it is thundering its way to test resistance. Next week I suspect we will get the "required" retracement and then another move upwards. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 12:17:38 PM

Next Keltner potential resistance for the SPX, beyond that currently being tested on the 15-minute chart, is 1377.33-1379, depending on the chart being viewed. The A/D line is still gaining, but not enough yet that I can tell whether it's going to finally break through that resistance that has held for three days and head up toward 1000. It's a possibility.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 12:15:46 PM

Strayer Ed. (STRA) $170.92 +5.87% Link ...

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 12:14:46 PM

The A/D line is approaching resistance that has essentially held each time it's been tested over the last three days. It's sometimes overrun it by a bit during those periods but it's essentially held.

What does this mean? This means that SPX bulls need to watch carefully for the possibility that the SPX could stall or move sideways again. Breakouts can and do occur, so if the A/D line continues climbing hard from its current 592 level, next potential resistance is near 1000.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 12:13:55 PM

Capella Education (CPLA) $61.20 +4.50% Link ... trades pretty "thin"

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 12:11:16 PM

Devry (DV) $47.41 +6.46% Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 12:05:48 PM

Industry Breakdown for Non-Farm Payroll (-80,000)

Private Sector= -98,000
Nat. Resources & Mining= +6,000
Construction= -51,000
Manufacturing= -48,000 (Durable Goods= -35K; Non-Durable= -13K)
Services= +13,000 (Wholesale Trade= -5k; Retail Trade= -12K; Transportation= -4K; Utilities= +500; Information & Media= -6K; Fincl Svcs & Real Estate= -5K; Prof & Bus Svcs= -35K; Education= +8K; Health Svcs= +33.5K; Leisure= +18K)
Government= +18,000

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 11:49:04 AM

Coach Inc. (COH) $33.51 +3.97% ... high-end retailer raised to "strong buy" from "neutral" at Buckingham.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 11:46:05 AM

US Education Co. Up; Congress Unveils Student-Loan Aid Bill

DJ- Shares of several education companies rose sharply Friday following news that congressional leaders introduced legislation that would allow the Department of Education to buy student loans from lenders in need of new capital.

The legislation, included in broader student-loan bills Thursday in both of houses of Congress, comes as several lenders have exited the student-loan market. Lenders have had difficulty raising funds as they face a credit crunch in the capital markets.

With the exit of these third-party lenders, there were concerns that students would face a shortage of loans available for the coming school year.

Stocks rallying on the news include: Corinthian Colleges Inc. (COCO), which surged 18% to $9.29; Apollo Group Inc. (APOL), which gained 4% to $48.35; DeVry Inc. (DV), up 6.5% to $47.44; ITT Educational Services Inc. (ESI), up 13% at $59.57; Career Education Corp. (CECO), which added 7.9% to $16.59. In addition, Universal Technical Institute Inc. (UTI) increased 3.5% to $12.86, Capella Education Co. (CPLA) traded up 4.6% at $61.23, and Strayer Education Inc. (STRA) rose 6% to $171.07.

Sponsors of the proposed bill include Sen. Edward Kennedy (D., Mass.), who is chairman of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions; and Rep. George Miller (D. Calif.), chairman of the House Education and Labor Committee.

Under the proposals, the department would use Treasury funds to purchase loans so lenders could, in turn, make new ones. In recent years, many lenders have bundled loans into securities and sold them to investors but that market has seized up amid credit concerns.

Robert W. Baird analyst Amy Junker said the proposed legislation "essentially would solve the liquidity problem" for these lenders.

She added, however, that the proposal "does not solve the private lending issues that have occurred from parties with subprime loans."

Keene Little : 4/4/2008 11:36:50 AM

The bears have not been able to capitalize on the bad jobs number and that could embolden the bulls today. If the shorts start covering and the bulls start buying there is the possibility for a strong rally today. Obviously a break above yesterday's high would be bullish. In the meantime I think we could be setting up for another day of consolidation.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 11:26:31 AM

I'm here and I'm watching, but on days such as this one, I try to refrain from micro-analyzing everything. As we know, I'm a serial poster (LOL), but I purposely try to limit my posts on days like these. I know from experience that if I post something about resistance holding, someone who is anxious to get into a trade might think I'm suggesting that it's time to plow into bearish trades; if I note that support is holding, wanna-be bulls might conclude it's time for an entry. Or worse, someone who should and hasn't yet exited a losing trade might take my comments as encouragement to stay in that trade just a bit longer. The truth is that I don't see anything yet other than chop, chop that fits in with the possibility of another day of consolidation.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 11:20:57 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2008 11:19:09 AM

VIX to new daily lows so expect the S&P futures (and of course the Cash index) to make new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 11:04:41 AM

VIX.X 22.64 -2.45% ... undercutting DAILY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 11:00:48 AM

TRINQ daily pivot at 0.70.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 11:00:28 AM

QQQQ $45.63 +0.08% ... decent volume spike ... TRINQ falling from 1.80 to 0.95.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 10:57:37 AM

The A/D line dropped again toward, but not to, its downside target and has bounced sharply again. This is just churning and there's really not much to say or many predictions that can be made.

Keene Little : 4/4/2008 10:57:47 AM

For a couple of weeks now I've been showing on the DOW and SPX daily charts an idea for a sideways consolidation that could play out into May. This calls for a drop back down to the lows of its trading range since January (near 1275). A slightly more bullish possibility is a rally up to the downtrend line from October by mid April (near 1416). Both are shown on this updated daily chart: Link

The 120-min chart shows how each could play out. The key level, assuming we'll get a pullback, is near 1344 which is the uptrend line from March 17th. Based on the choppy price pattern I'm leaning towards the bullish price path (green): Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2008 10:53:27 AM

SPX continues to tease us but I think it will reach 1390-1400 before it does its required retracement. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 10:44:54 AM

USD/JPY 101.66 -0.57% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 10:44:36 AM

Forex Currencies Link

EUR/USD 1.573 +0.33% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 10:43:30 AM

DXY 71.92 -0.41% (30-min delayed) ... With USO $84.68 +1.23% ... thinking euro strong against the dollar.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 10:42:21 AM

5-year is down 13.5 bp at 2.618%

10-year down 11.8 bp at 3.473%

30-year down 7.6 bp at 4.311%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 10:41:15 AM

Strong bid for treasuries across the curve this morning. Not overly bullish for equities after this run.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 10:34:06 AM

The A/D line's action is more bearish than the price action, so there's a slight divergence there. The A/D line is currently -402 and it looks vulnerable to about -635.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 10:33:33 AM

Cemex Shares Off On Venezuela Takeover ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 10:32:51 AM

Cemex (CX) $26.93 -2.00% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 10:32:47 AM

I'm back. Prices are still just chopping around, aren't they? So far, the SPX maintains 30-minute closes beneath the 30-minute 9-ema and 15-minute closes beneath the 15-minute 9-ema, but it keeps challenging both rather than falling sharply away, so I'm not certain they will continue to hold as resistance. The 30-minute version is now 1368.43.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 10:31:22 AM

Cemex: Asking For Explanation On Venezuela Seizure Plans

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 10:30:31 AM

Asian markets put in a mixed-to-higher trade on Friday with Japan's Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link trading down 96 points, or -0.72% to close at 13,293.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng ($HSI) Link gained 392 points, or +1.64% to 24,264, while the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) Link finished up 98 points, or +2.94% at 3,446.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 10:20:53 AM

FED TO REPORT QUARTERLY ON BEAR LOAN PORTFOLIO VALUE

DJ- Federal Reserve says it will report quarterly the valuation of the portfolio backing its $29 billion loan to facilitate the bailout of Bear Stearns and any liquidations it has made.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2008 10:15:39 AM

Things are getting bearishier and bearishier but not yet bearish. AD line making new daily lows but at -333 the bulls are not too worried. VIX is trading mid range.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 10:05:58 AM

UBS SHARES RISE 1.5% ON ACTIVIST HOLDER CALL FOR BREAK-UP

DJ- UBS shares up 1.5% on news that an activist investor is pushing for change at the Swiss bank, which could result in a break-up of the firm. In a letter Luqman Arnold's investment firm Olivant Advisors appeals to the UBS board, urging the bank to separate and consider selling its investment bank.

UBS $33.06 +1.75% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 10:04:34 AM

US UNEMPLOYMENT HITS 5.1%, PAYROLLS DROP 80K

DJ- A third-straight sharp drop in U.S. payrolls confirms Fed Chairman Bernanke's recent warning that the U.S. economy may be in recession, as the unemployment rate moves up to 5.1% in March from 4.8% in February. Data suggest additional interest rate cuts by the Fed are likely, even though the already-aggressive response by officials doesn't leave them too much room for additional easing.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2008 10:03:50 AM

CANADA MARCH JOBLESS RATE UP TO 6%

DJ- Canadian employers add just 14,6000 jobs in March with all the hiring in part-time positions while the jobless rate creeps up unexpectedly from an influx of people into the labor market looking for jobs.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 10:03:16 AM

I need to step away for a few minutes.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 9:50:34 AM

The A/D line dropped all the way to that potential support now near -500 and bounced hard, but it's still vulnerable to another drop into that level. It's -67 as I type. There's some choppy behavior going on again today, however, so be careful not to make too many assumptions today. Another choppy consolidation-type is possible today, but as I said in last night's Wrap, I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPX drop to 1355-1356 or maybe even 1344-1345 sometime within the next few trading days and attempting a bounce from there, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see it bounce first before doing so. With charts set up with that much indecision, it's clear that market participants are feeling it, creating those mixed-up setups.

Keene Little : 4/4/2008 9:50:13 AM

With the drop this morning the price pattern turns potentially bearish. The DOW has broken its uptrend line from yesterday morning (shown on the 30-min chart in last night's post) as well as the uptrend line from Monday (shown on the 120-min chart) and that says the rally leg from Monday is finished. The potential now is for a drop back down to the uptrend line from March 17th (down near 12400).

If the market instead rallies from here to a new high, or stays trapped inside yesterday's range, it would negate that bearish expectation and indicate we'll get some kind of choppier climb higher. For now I'd look to short bounces.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 9:41:26 AM

The OEX has potential support on 30-minute closes at about 630.40; potential resistance on 30-minute closes at 637.86. For now, it's best to assume that anything between the two is chop. We'll see if any pattern develops later.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 9:39:46 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: the A/D line opened beneath the bullish/bearish benchmark. It's +101 as I type, having bounced from just above an old trendline S/R now at about -120. Potential Keltner support is lower, at about -450. The Keltner setup suggests that could be hit, but yesterday Keltner setups just weren't working well on anything, showing a sort of chaotic, choppy mood prevailing. We should remain a bit skeptical this morning, too.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2008 9:38:40 AM

AD line at a very neutral +108

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 9:36:10 AM

Not much sense of direction yet. As mentioned in my Wrap last night, the SPX has potentially strong support on 30-minute closes near 1360.85 and potentially strong resistance on 30-minute closes near 1376.47. Between that, it's probably just chop that doesn't do much to predict next direction, unfortunately.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2008 9:22:34 AM

Crude is also not displaying any tendency to break above its downward trendline either and is in the process of building a bearish triangle. Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2008 9:21:14 AM

Gold is certainly not displaying any tendency to break above the head and shoulders trendline however, I do think it has a very good chance of at least retesting the 940-960 zone before/if it resumes it downward trend. MACD is saying it needs to retrace a tad before/if it takes another move down. Link

Keene Little : 4/4/2008 9:19:24 AM

Equity futures were ramped up from 6:30 AM after running flatter than flat all night and then tanked on the jobs number, dropping below where they were trading all night. Then a bounce and futures made it back to essentially where they were before the ramp up--flat. Gee, I wonder who knew what the number would be and drove the futures up so as to be able to absorb the selling. But it could be tough holding the cash market up.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2008 9:07:31 AM

The markets reacted quite violently to the employment data out at 8:30EST., however, they have all recovered and are trading back to where they started. I have often wondered if I should get up early (8:30EST is 5:30 my time) and try trading one of these reports that really move the markets. I traded the last FED announcement and it was quite profitable. Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2008 9:00:59 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. employers cut back their hiring in March for the third straight month, a clear sign that pessimism about the near-term economic outlook was justified, government data released on Friday showed.

Nonfarm payrolls fell by an estimated 80,000 in March, the Labor Department said. This is the largest decline since March 2003.

The nation's unemployment rate surged to 5.1%, the highest since September 2005.

The decline in payrolls was weaker than the 60,000 decrease that had been expected by Wall Street economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

Adding to the sense of weakness in employment, payrolls in January and February were revised lower by a cumulative 67,000.

Job losses have totaled 232,000 since the New Year, an average of 77,000 lost jobs per month.

Linda Piazza : 4/4/2008 8:36:51 AM

As anticipated, the Japanese government is finally escalating its attempts to find a new Bank of Japan head before next week's G-7 meeting. The Bank of Japan also has a meeting next week. The government has so far rejected two nominees because they were considered too well connected politically, alarming those worried about Japan's central bank's ability to coordinate with other central banks in the event of some global difficulty. Now the government is proposing that the central bank's current deputy governor and former executive director under Fukui, Masaaki Shirakawa, be named as Fukui's successor. Currently, most believe that he will be proposed as the successor on Monday.

I don't know much about Shirakawa and where he fits on the hawkish versus dovish spectrum. I know that some numbers in Japan are beginning to point to a slowdown there, too, and there's a growing clamor for something to be done about the strength of the yen, an effect that hurts Japan's exporters. All kinds of theories have abounded lately about what will happen next with the U.S. dollar versus the yen, but that's to be expected, don't you think, when we didn't know the identity of Fukui's successor and the stance of that successor, much less the skill of that successor in enacting his plans.

Just keep in mind that with this choice and the G-7 meeting (I believe on 4/11) ahead of us this next week, there's much opportunity for weird currency moves. Those can and do impact equities.

Market Monitor Archives