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Keene Little : 4/7/2008 11:36:41 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Four doji days since last Tuesday's big up day leaves us with very little that has changed on the SPX daily chart: Link . Price is basically consolidating at the top of the 2-month trading range and that could be considered either bullish or bearish, take your pick. Notice Monday's high stopped at the 38% retracement of the Oct-Jan decline (1386.96 and Monday's high was 1386.74).

The 60-min chart shows price remains in the middle of a potential rising wedge pattern with the top of the pattern nearing 1400 and the bottom of the pattern near 1354: Link . I show a pullback to at least the bottom of the wedge before potentially heading higher and that's based on what I believe is an ending pattern on Monday for the leg up from March 31st.

It takes a break below 1350 to give us a heads up that we've got something potentially more bearish starting and a break below 1312 to confirm it. In the meantime, expect more of the same--choppy whipsaw price action.

OI Technical Staff : 4/7/2008 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 5:57:37 PM

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $6.18 -0.80% ... has been released for trade. $6.15 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 5:55:17 PM

NYSE Amends Short Interest To 15.6B Shares At March 31 ... Alert! ... See this weekends wrap (correction here) and today's MM regarding Lehman Pfd.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 5:50:34 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 5:25:18 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 4:58:36 PM

Alcoa (AA) $37.44 -4.00% ... has been released for trade. $37.40 extended. After-hours low/high has been $36.22/$38.00

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 4:42:06 PM

SMH $30.23 -0.68% .... $30.27 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 4:41:23 PM

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) To Cut 10% Of Jobs, Expects Lower 1Q Revenue

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 4:40:36 PM

Brazil To Freeze BRL19B In '08 Spending To Meet Fiscal Target

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 4:37:52 PM

Alcoa (AA) ... Q1 Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for non-GAAP EPS of $0.48 On Rev of $7.18B.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 4:34:52 PM

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $6.34 +1.76% ... Halted; News Pending

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 4:34:20 PM

Alcoa (AA) $37.44 -4.00% ... Halted; News Pending

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 4:02:15 PM

Economic reports on the docket for tomorrow include

10:00a.m. Feb Pending Home Sales Index. Expected: -1.5%. Previous: Unch.

2:00p.m. FOMC Minutes.

Keene Little : 4/7/2008 4:00:24 PM

Looking at the updated SPX 60-min chart, the bulls will look at the consolidation around the Feb 1st - Feb 27th downtrend line, currently near 1374, as bullish while the bears will look at the inability to hold above it today as bearish: Link . Take your pick, especially since it looks like it might close right on it. I see downside potential at least to the uptrend line from March 17th near 1353 and I think it will take a break below 1350 to get this more bearish. Until that happens expect more of the same kind of chop and whipsaw price action.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 3:58:32 PM

Today's Global Economic Calendar Link ... German Industrial Production +0.4%, was stronger than the -0.4% forecast.

iShares Germany (EWG) $32.51 +0.61% ... do threaten to close above their 50% retracement today. Therefore (IF EWG can close >$32.34), using my 2-level rule, "should not" close back below 19.1% and $29.66.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 3:56:10 PM

Barring a strong move down in the last few minutes of the day, the SPX likely won't close beneath 1366.40-ish potential support on the daily chart. Does that mean that it won't drop back toward the 10-sma, now at 1350.77? It doesn't mean that it won't, but if the SPX had closed below that potential support, I would have felt more certain. A close above 1366.40 and particularly above 1371 leaves open the possibility that the SPX will complete this consolidation period without dropping to the 10-sma, but it doesn't prove that's the case. I still believe equity bulls have to factor in possible vulnerability to that level. Nothing's been proven yet except that a lot of people are getting whipsawed out of trades, a few adept scalpers are probably having lots of fun, and the rest of us are just bored to tears.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 3:47:05 PM

DJ- Petroleo Brasileiro: Japan Govt Worried About Ethanol Environment Impact

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 3:44:57 PM

NYSE: Incorrect Short Sale Data Reported For Lehman Pfd Shares (see 12:04:30 PM Post)

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 3:43:18 PM

The SPX's potential support on 15-minute closes is now 1368.01; the OEX's, 631.99-632.90. Both were just closely approached, and both indices attempt bounces now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 3:40:03 PM

Arch Coal Eyes Sharp Rise In 2008 Earnings ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 3:38:29 PM

Arch Coal (ACI) $47.96 -1.98% ... CNBC mentioning stock. Notable reversal from gap open high of $52.63.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 3:27:58 PM

Remember the A/D Keltner chart I posted a couple of times this morning, noting that the A/D line just wasn't breaking above resistance and wasn't confirming what was happening on other indices that were? The A/D line never did break resistance and did, in fact, roll over from that resistance. Here's an updated chart, and you should be able to see from that chart that the A/D line has reached potential support as of a few minutes ago. Link It may have seemed odd to pin so many concerns that I expressed about the sustainability of the rally on just this one measure, but I've learned to be wary when the A/D line was finding support or resistance but prices weren't yet. As I said earlier when worrying that indices had broken out but the A/D line hadn't, volume patterns tend to lead price patterns. When A/D appeared to be following, I was wary. In fact, it was leading, but in a different way: leading in showing weakness and then rolling down.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 3:26:50 PM

SUN $53.20 +1.79% ... bucking some refiner trend. It's 3/27 close was $50.91.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 3:25:11 PM

VLO $49.83 -1.58% ... 3/27 close was $48.47.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 3:24:27 PM

TSO $29.41 -5.88% ... 3/27 close was $28.87.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 3:21:08 PM

Nymex May Crude Oil (cl08k) settled up $2.86, or +2.69% at $109.09.

Unleaded (rb08k) settled up $0.0268, or +0.97% at $2.7835.

My May crack spread tabulation comes out at 25.516. Lowest since 3/27/08 25.24.

Keene Little : 4/7/2008 3:16:36 PM

If we've got more rally ahead of us into mid month, the DOW 60-min chart shows how it could play out (green): Link . A pullback to the bottom of its up-channel from the March lows coincides with a downside Fib projection for a larger sideways/down consolidation from last week's high at 12469. That could then set up another rally leg into mid April and top out around 13K.

It's somewhat arbitrary but a break below 12400 would suggest to me that we're going to see at least a deeper retracement if not a move back down to the bottom of the trading range since January (maybe 11800).

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 3:16:01 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 3:15:05 PM

Over the short-term, SPX bulls need a bounce back above about 1371 before the end of the this 30-minute period. It's currently headed toward potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes now at 1367.79. Bulls need that to halt any declines or the daily chart outlook begins to be impacted. See my 2:43:41 post for an explanation.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 3:05:56 PM

US Feb Consumer Credit Increased $5.2B

Jan Consumer Credit Revised To Up $10.3B From Up $6.9B

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 3:05:27 PM

Potentially strong support on the SPX on 15-minute closes is at 1367.92. On 30-minute closes, it's at 1371.45, now being tested. See my 3:03:12 post about the OEX to understand why these aren't necessarily contradictory.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 3:03:12 PM

Next potentially strong support on the OEX's 15-minute chart is 631.90-632.82. On the 30-minute chart, it's 634.07. These aren't contradictory. The SPX can fall through the 30-minute support, hit the 15-minute and bounce back to the 30-minute by the close of that 30-minute period. I'm getting ahead of myself, though, as we don't know if any of these will hold. I do know one thing, though: equity bulls certainly want them to do so, and they look strong enough now to prompt at least a bounce attempt, barring some kind of cascading lower setup.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 2:53:54 PM

NWX.X 217.24 -1.05% ... undercuts its WKLY Pivot 217.88.

Keene Little : 4/7/2008 2:53:30 PM

GOOG managed to climb up to the top of its bear flag pattern (from the March low) but is still shy of the top of its down-channel from December (currently near 510). Another down-up sequence is possible in order to tag the top of its channel (which the top of the bear flag pattern crosses on April 15th). But the risk to bulls here is that it could be ready to start its 5th wave down to a new low (354 Fib projection) and therefore, like the others, short against today's high is the recommended play for now. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 2:50:54 PM

Not that I have any confidence that any so-called support or resistance benchmark will prove predictive in this environment, but we should at least have something to watch as a guidepost. The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1378.47; the OEX's, 636.93. These have been serving as resistance on 15-minute closes for the last hour to 90 minutes.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 2:43:41 PM

If the SPX were to end the day today below about 1366.40, then I would be fairly convinced that my scenario--several days of sideways consolidation and then a dip to the 10-sma and then . . . then we see--would be on track. If it closes above that, I'm not as sure that the 10-sma test will be needed. The SPX might just try to take off to the upside again. It does, however, usually need such a test even in strong times and I'm not at all sure yet that this is a strong time.

Keene Little : 4/7/2008 2:41:45 PM

It seems to be a common pattern today--AAPL also gave up today's rally and is leaving a potential shooting star doji today, this after almost tagging its 50% retracement of the Dec-Feb decline: Link

The wave count on this is very bearish since the bounce can be considered complete and a 3rd wave down to new lows is next. That's the potential anyway. I'll have a better sense of that after a pullback and see whether it could instead lead to another higher bounce. Short against today's high is the right place on this one.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 2:33:17 PM

SPX bulls need the SPX to find support on 30-minute closes at potential Keltner support at 1371.45. That hasn't been broken since the SPX leaped above it the morning of 4/1. Analogous support for the OEX is 634.08.

Keene Little : 4/7/2008 2:32:53 PM

CME has given up today's rally after coming very close to the top of its down-channel from December: Link . Like the broader market, the new highs since last Wednesday have left bearish divergences on the 30 and 60-min charts.

Therefore short against today's high looks like a good play on this one too. If the price pattern needs a 5th wave down, as labeled in dark red, the downside Fib projection for it is to 337. A push back up and above 527.68 would negate that bearish wave count (today's high was 526.68).

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 2:29:49 PM

M, m, mmmm ... USO $87.32 +2.87% ... looks well overdone to the upside relative to today's euro/$ action. Suggests at a MINIMUM some major short trouble.

Keene Little : 4/7/2008 2:26:47 PM

SPX 1377-1378 should be defended by the bulls (the highs of last week's little consolidation) but if not then it will just add to the bearishness of today's high. Short against today's high is the right place to be so if we do get a bounce, use that as your stop.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 2:20:51 PM

If the OEX closes this 30-minute period beneath the 30-minute 9-ema at 637.50, there's the potential for it to drop toward 635.55 or perhaps even 634.05.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 2:19:26 PM

The SPX not only dropped toward 1380, but it also dropped below it. The 15-minute 9-ema has now been resistance on 15-minute closes, with that average now at 1381.34. I know I sound like a broken record, but this is still just chop within a rising price channel, one that may now be narrowing into a wedge if the channel is started at Wednesday's high, rather than Thursday's high. If the SPX closes this 30-minute period below the 30-minute 9-ema, now at about 1380.50, the possibility of a drop to 1375.60 or perhaps even 1371.40 exists, although I hesitate to call anything a target at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 2:09:55 PM

TRAN 5,011

SMH $30.47

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 2:09:07 PM

DIA $126.66

SPY $137.86

QQQQ $46.02

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 2:08:34 PM

IIX.X, DDX.X and RLX.X slip fractions red.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 2:07:36 PM

pound/$ ... 1.9852 -0.40% ... hasn't been much of a driver (equities or commodities) ... WKLY's are 1.958, 1.976, Piv= 1.990, 2.008, 2.022.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 1:59:59 PM

Euro/$ ... 1.5703 -0.21% ... WKLY Pivot Levels are 1.533, 1.553, Piv= 1.571, 1.592, 1.610.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 1:55:16 PM

$/yen 102.57 +1.09% ... WKLY Pivot Levels are ... 96.93, 99.20, Piv= 101.06, 103.33, 105.19.

Keene Little : 4/7/2008 1:42:38 PM

SPX did in fact pop above its trend line along the highs since last Thursday and then dropped back down, giving us what looks like a throw-over finish to a potential rising wedge pattern with the requisite 5-wave move up from Thursday morning. The bearish potential here is for a move back down at least to Thursday's low just under 1359.

If the bulls manage to turn this back around and drive it higher then upside potential is first to the top of the larger rising wedge pattern from the March lows, nearing 1400 now. Then higher potential is to the 1416-1420 area. It's the negative divergence at the new highs the past few days that has me thinking the bulls are running out of steam here (60-min chart update): Link

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 1:38:42 PM

Markets were a little late to react to the bullish VIX but they did eventually and have now made new daily highs. My reputation has been saved, at least for today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 1:39:32 PM

Asian Markets: ... were broadly higher to start the week. Japan's Nikkei-225 was up 157 points, or 1.18% to finish at 13,450 (-12.1% YTD). In China, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 314 points, or 1.29% to close at 24,578 (-11.6% YTD). Mainland's Shanghai Composite started to play some catch up, surging 153 points, or 4.45% to close at 3,599 (-31.6% YTD).

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 1:37:45 PM

Support held again at the SPX's and OEX's 15-minute 9-ema's on that 15-minute close, although both pierced their 9-ema's. Another test of 1384.82-1386.38 resistance on the SPX and 639.46-640.27 resistance on the OEX could be possible. We're moving into that typical stop-running time of day from 1:35-1:55 pm ET, so it's also possible that the SPX and OEX could drop through that support and test next support, at 1380.56 on the SPX and 637.73 on the OEX.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 1:23:28 PM

Sector Winners ... Home Construction +3.63%, Money Center Banks +2.94%, Broker/Dealer +2.91%, Regional Banks +2.50%, Gold Bugs +2.08%

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 1:22:58 PM

I know the SPX and OEX have climbed and they've hit new highs of the day, highs above Friday's as they continue zigging and zagging upward inside a price channel. I have a couple of concerns. One of that not all the ducks have been in a row today. The other is that when I view the climb since about last Tuesday on a 30-minute chart, I'm now beginning to see a narrowing rising wedge rather than a more bullish rising parallel channel. Keene's mentioned the bearish price/oscillator divergences, and, if the SPX should drop back too far now, with sustained levels below 1380, it will have created Keltner-style bearish divergence, too. Such bearish divergences and bearish formations are proof of absolutely nothing except that you need to keep your profit-protecting plans in order so that you capture the profit you intended to capture.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 1:21:53 PM

Sector Losers ... Networking (NWX.X) 218.96 -0.27% and NASDAQ Telecom (XTC.X) 234.93 -0.17% as well as Treasuries.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 1:19:55 PM

Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO) $37.53 +2.34% ... #8 most active. Has probed its 52-week highs from Oct/Nov

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 1:18:36 PM

The SPX and OEX did hold above their 15-minute 9-ema's into the close of that 15-minute period, but they're lingering near those moving averages (see my 1:00:19 post for numbers) as I type, so the jury remains out.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 1:10:43 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 1:05:05 PM

5-year Yield ($FVX.X) up 15.6 bp at 2.789. Pressed against its WKLY R1 right here.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 1:00:19 PM

The SPX is still so far finding support at its 15-minute 9-ema. That's now 1382.17. The OEX's is 638.41. Equity bulls want to see the SPX and OEX continue to find support on pullbacks at these averages.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 12:58:02 PM

Well Crude did break resistance $108.00/bl and made a higher high but I suspect it will retrace to at least the downward trendline maybe even back to test $100/bl again. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 12:54:52 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in BOOM.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 12:54:49 PM

Swing trade call option alert! ... go long one (1) of the Dynamic Materials BOOM Jun $45 Calls (QCB-FI) at the offer of $5.70.

BOOM $46.47 +1.99% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 12:52:12 PM

Swing trade call option exit alert! ... for the one (1) Valero Energy VLO Sep $50 Call (VLO-IJ) at the bid of $5.95.

VLO $50.54 -0.13% ... and let's utilize that cash for this ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 12:49:00 PM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,385.67 +1.11% ... see this weekend's wrap

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 12:48:23 PM

Dow Transport (TRAN) alert! 5033.52 +1.15% ... see this weeken's wrap

Keene Little : 4/7/2008 12:45:12 PM

It's a difficult price pattern to decipher (from an EW perspective) for the "rally" higher since last Wednesday's high but the fact that it has overlapping highs and lows (lack of impulsiveness) and negative divergence against last Wednesday's high, it continues to have me thinking it's an ending pattern.

SPX is about to tag the trend line along the highs since Thursday, currently near 1385 (pushing above it as I type). Slightly higher, at 1387.86, is where the move up from Friday afternoon would have two equal legs up. If we get a small throw-over above the trend line and then back down that could be the indication the rally is over. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 12:44:51 PM

No breakout on the A/D line, and I'd certainly like to see that happening, as corroboration of what's happening on the SPX and OEX charts. The A/D line has been, however, like them, finding support on 15-minute clsoes at the 15-minute 9-ema. I like to see volume patterns leading and not following the indices, though.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 12:43:14 PM

The SPX and OEX are both breaking above Keltner resistance, although I again caution that a 15-minute period has not concluded and the breakouts are minimal so far. I'm turning to the 30-minute charts for next potential targets and resistance. That's at 1387.14 for the SPX and 641.29 for the OEX. Remember that's potential resistance, too.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 12:42:55 PM

Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) 986.43 +1.36% ... retraces 50% of its very TRAN-like decline. Sticking its head above 150-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 12:25:42 PM

CME Group (CME) 521.60 +2.16% ... Bulls looking good in here. Would like to see further demand build above $528 and pave the way for a test of upper-end of the still more bearish "Bailey Wave" near $550. Link

Still long 1/4 position from 04/02/08 entry of $512.50.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 12:16:02 PM

The OEX continues testing potential resistance on 15-minute closes at 639.13. If it can't soon push above this resistance and stay above it, then it might need to retreat back to the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 637.25, to retest the potential support there on 15-minute closes. The OEX is 638.70 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 12:14:30 PM

The SPX continues challenging that potential Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes, now at 1382.65. I guess I shouldn't call it "potential" resistance any longer, as it's been resistance on two 15-minute closes now. However, it's potential resistance for this 15-minute period. The SPX is now at 1382.34. If it can't soon push above that resistance, then a retreat back to test the potential support of the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1379.68, may occur.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 12:04:30 PM


DJ- NYSE Regulation says it and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority are investigating the large increase in short interest data released Friday for Lehman Brothers' 7.9% preferred stock.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 12:03:06 PM

BIX.X 253.36 +2.09% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 12:02:51 PM


DJ- Shares jump 23% as TPG and other investors are close to a deal to invest $5 billion in Washington Mutual. Injection of new capital would allow the country's largest savings and loan to ease its pressing capital requirements.

WM $12.61 +23.99% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 11:54:28 AM

NASDAQ NH/NL ratio chart Link at Friday's close.

It would take a closing measure of 34% or higher to get the "f"ive-day ratio back on a "buy signal". It would take a 10-day (X and O) NH/NL ratio measure of 32% or higher to get back on a "buy signal."

Keene Little : 4/7/2008 11:52:45 AM

On the 60-min charts I'm seeing negative divergences at the new highs since last Wednesday and the way price has been chopping its way higher it looks more like an ending pattern to me instead of the start of a stronger rally. This is why I keep cautioning against expectations for more than relatively minor highs. The possibility for a stronger pullback remains high.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 11:50:26 AM

The SPX potential resistance noted in my 11:35:06 post did hold on the last 15-minute close, with that close at 1382.75, but the SPX is still challenging that potential resistance. The resistance has now been pushed up to about 1383.20, and the SPX is 1382.96 as I type. If the SPX should pull back from the resistance test, the 15-minute 9-ema is now at 1379.01.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 11:41:09 AM

Here are your overnight charts and as you can see overnight highs have not been breached intraday. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 11:35:06 AM

Watch for the potential for the SPX to find resistance on 15-minute closes at about 1383.15. Above that, the next resistance is now at 1390.12. For the OEX, these numbers are about 635.05 and 643.48.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 11:34:48 AM

NYSE NH/NL ratio chart Link ... at Friday's close. "f"ive day action, where the decline to 12% found an actual inflection low of 10.4% on 3/12. The "buy" signal (f above prior f) was 4/3/08.

10-day is X and O. It's "buy" signal (X above prior X) came on 4/03/08.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 11:33:30 AM

The A/D line has potential resistance now from about 1309.50-1435. This is the same resistance that stopped it earlier today, pictured on a couple of linked charts earlier this morning. The Keltner lines are dynamic, however, and will change value as the day progresses. The A/D line is 1104 as I type.

Keene Little : 4/7/2008 11:30:18 AM

Price pattern has been choppy to the downside and the bounce off this morning's pullback so far also looks choppy. I'm sure tired of using the word choppy but that's all we've got. And as long as that remains true I don't see a good trade setup. This is one lousy trading environment (at least for the indices). We could see a minor new high for the day but it's hard to trust with this kind of price action.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 11:30:24 AM

So, if there's mixed evidence, what do you do? First, the SPX has been finding support on 15-minute closes at its 9-ema, now at 1376.90. That's barely moving higher, so it's not a strong endorsement of strength, but its support is so far holding. As long as that's happening, you can probably count on more resistance tests, but unless some of these other indicators improve, I'm not sure if you can count on breakouts. I'm still a bit wary of this so-called strength.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 11:27:42 AM

If the TRAN is leading today, it's leading to the upside. It keeps reaching new highs for the day, and has in just the last few minutes moved above Friday's high. However, the A/D line is not at a new high for the day, and neither yet is the SPX or OEX. Neither, for that matter is the USDJPY, which has been trending down since about 8:45 this morning. The USDJPY has been finding resistance on 15-minute closes at its 9-ema, now at 102.50, but it just hit a potentially strong support zone from 102.22-102.35 a few minutes ago. It's at 102.53 as I type, trying to break above that 15-minute 9-ema.

What am I getting at? We still have mixed evidence.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 11:24:38 AM

VIX to new daily lows so the bulls are now cooking with gas.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 11:19:11 AM

NH/NL ratio at the NYSE really accelerating today. 5-day NH/NL ratio reaching a more short-term "overbought" measure of 71.9%. NASDAQ may be the place to be looking for new bull entries.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 11:18:55 AM

Analogous numbers for the OEX to those mentioned in my 11:17:26 post for the SPX are as follows: potential resistance on 30-minute closes at 641.25 and then again at 642.71, potential support at 632.25, and the 9-ema at 635.34.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 11:18:06 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 11:17:26 AM

Here are the Keltner numbers that seem significant for the SPX: potential resistance on 30-minute closes now at 1387.48 and potential support now at 1367.90. Between those numbers, it looks like chop. So far this morning, all 30-minute closes have been above the 30-minute 9-ema, now at 1375.65, so a sustained 30-minute close beneath that would suggest more weakness than we've seen so far, but perhaps only enough weakness to send the SPX down to test that next support level.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 11:07:51 AM

CRB Index (CRY) 400.00 +1.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 11:06:20 AM

GLD $91.65 +1.55% ... sticks its head above that 38.2% retracement of recent decline.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 11:00:05 AM

PBR $112.94 +2.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:59:50 AM

YRCW $14.81 +5.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:58:59 AM

TSO $30.51 -2.36% ...

VLO $50.45 -0.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:58:17 AM

May unleaded has edged to a new contract high this morning. Oil not far behind.

Still, crack spread deteriorating some with unleaded +1.08% while oil is up 2.63%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:55:46 AM

Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly Index Pivot Matrix at this Link

At current trade, BIX.X juuuuust under QRTR Pivot.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 10:51:48 AM

The TRAN is at a new high for the day. The A/D line is not. One appears to be tugging the SPX, OEX and Dow one direction; the other, not corroborating the gains.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:49:51 AM

10-year ($TNX.X) up 5.1 bp at 3.532% ... has reclaimed both WKLY and MONTHLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 10:47:30 AM

Well the market of course could not do what I thought it would do and rally right after I said it would but first of all make new daily lows then start its move up.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 10:41:02 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line has been moving up in a channel of its own, chopping back and forth inside it since Thursday morning. While hitting Keltner resistance that I've shown several times today already, the A/D line was also hitting the top of that channel. I mentioned earlier a potential support level for the A/D line, now at 526.25, saying that equity bulls didn't really want the A/D line to drop that far. However, it's now not so far above it. Further support is now near 200, where further potential Keltner support converges with the channel's support, and equity bulls really don't want to see that broken. So far, we have a lot of chopping around on a lot of charts, including the A/D line's chart. No conclusion yet.

This actually fits fairly well with the premise, expressed last week, that even in its strongest rally days, the SPX tended to rally strong, move sideways for a few days until the daily 10-sma was fairly close below it, dip down to that 10-sm and then rise again. These are not yet strong rally days, although we all anticipate that a rally will get started some time or another and persist this time for a number of weeks at least. We don't know what will happen if the SPX gets driven into a repeat of that former pattern. Will it actually drop to the 10-sma? Will it bounce or fall through it? Would any bounce be sustained? However, another day or so of sideways movement and then a dip toward if not to the 10-sma, now at 1351.16 but still rising, wouldn't surprise me. A daily close much above 1382 would make me believe that the SPX was eschewing the 10-sma test this time.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:39:46 AM

GLD's session high has been 38.2% ($91.54) of recent decline.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:38:31 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $91.27 +1.14% ... QChart's WKLY Pivot Levels are ... $83.04, $86.63, Piv= $89.64, $93.24 (correlative with a 50% retracement of recent decline), $96.24.

Keene Little : 4/7/2008 10:38:23 AM

The pullback continues but it could hardly be called strong selling. Gap closures look possible at this point and basically price continues to chop around in an upward bias from last Wednesday.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:36:26 AM

US Dollar Index (DXY) 72.16 +0.19% ... up 0.14 points.

I will adjust Friday's close to 72.02 for the WEEKLY Pivot Matrix close (from 71.95). Not that much of a change.

WKLY's S2= 70.61, S1= 71.31, P= 72.06, R1= 72.76, R2= 73.51.

Low high so far since Sunday's open has been 71.94/72.43

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:31:34 AM

That downgrade on AMAT looks "stock specific" at this point and more tied to solar panel than anything.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:30:54 AM

Novellus (NVLS) $24.31 +3.44% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 10:28:49 AM

The A/D line now has potential support on 15-minute closes near 778. It's at 860 as I type, with the Keltner resistance having held. Next support is near 526, but bulls really don't want to see it drop that far.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 10:27:48 AM

The TRAN is just off a new high of the day. The A/D line isn't too far off the low of the day. Mixed-up stuff.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:26:48 AM

VIX.X 22.34 -0.48% ...

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 10:25:26 AM

I see the market moving up from here.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 10:24:45 AM

From a purely technical standpoint this triangle is called a continuation triangle and suggests the US$ will break out to the downside. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:24:57 AM

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) $42.21 +5.07% ...
KCQ-PH $0.40 x $0.50
KCQ-PU $0.10 x $0.15

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 10:16:49 AM

If I am reading the VIX correctly then we should have a very nice move upward from here. The AD line supports that scenario at +1047.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 10:15:45 AM

Egads the VIX is all over the map today. It is now making new daily lows telling me the bulls do indeed have the ball but the S&P futures are hugging their daily lows as well. This is not making any sense at all.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:15:10 AM

BASE METALS:China Copper Futures Settle Up,Tracking LME Gains

DJ- Copper futures traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange settled higher Monday, tracking Friday's rally in three-month London Metal Exchange copper, but were still traded at a large discount to their LME counterparts.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:14:29 AM

BASE METALS:LME Copper Near Record High But Stock Rise Weighs

DJ- Base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are trading near last week's close, having retreated slightly from overnight gains in Asia as warehouse stock increases weigh on some of the metals.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:12:29 AM

Devon Energy raised to "top pick" at Tristone; Tgt raised to $140 from $85 ... DVN $110.31 +2.76% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:12:23 AM

Newfield Expl. Raised to "Top Pick" at Tristone; Tgt raised to $78 from $68 ... NFX $55.99 +2.33% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 10:10:15 AM

Here's an update of the A/D line on the Keltner chart: Link No breakout yet. In fact, this seems to confirm that the resistance is holding. Notice, though, that support along the upper blue channel appears to be holding, too, so further challenges of resistance may yet be in store. No predictions here. Resistance seems firm, but . . . well, you can see the "buts" for yourselves.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:09:25 AM

Apache Corp. Cut To "Outperform" By Tristone was at "Top Pick," Tgt raised to $148 from $122 ... APA $130.02 +2.85% ... that's another 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:07:28 AM

Brazil Posts April 1-6 Foreign Trade Surplus Of $842 Mln

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 10:04:57 AM

All I know for sure yet this morning is that the choppy conditions from late last week persist.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 10:04:27 AM

The A/D line has just closed a 15-minute period above a Keltner channel line now at about 1190, but the A/D line didn't close much above it, closing that last period at 1263 and now being at 1169. This isn't yet an impressive break of resistance, of course, and the A/D needs to start gaining and avoid dropping back below that resistance line for any lengthy period to convince me that it's broken it. In this environment, I need lots of convincing.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 10:02:01 AM

Ceradyne (CRDN) $35.50 +3.04% ... edges above last week's congestion highs.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 9:58:51 AM

SPX potential resistance now at 1379.40, 1382.12 and 1386.85 on 15-minute closes. For the OEX, those values are 636.80, 638.71 and 642.21. The action today doesn't give good feelings about making any predictions. The A/D line doesn't want to meet downside targets, but the SPX and OEX seem to have trouble making upside headway. The TRAN is doing a whole lot of jumping around.

Keene Little : 4/7/2008 9:58:02 AM

The initial pop higher in the cash market immediately stalled and it's currently unclear whether we're going to pull back further or continue higher.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 9:56:04 AM

Here is Crude tagging resistance and I am out of my USO position. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 9:55:53 AM

As I mentioned last week in connection with something else, I'm always watchful when a potential target is set and the entity being watched makes no moves toward that target. When that happens, something else is going on beneath the markets. That's what's happening with the A/D line currently. I noted that it had vulnerability to lower levels but that it wasn't dropping toward them. Now it is in fact rising to test potential resistance on 15-minute closes again. A/D line at 1182 as I type and that resistance is now near 1190.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 9:53:43 AM

As I think Jeff just noted, the TRAN moved into negative levels for a time this morning. It sank toward potentially strong Keltner support at 4948.80 on 15-minute closes. I would expect at least a bounce attempt soon, and it appears to be starting as I type this post. There's potential resistance on 15-minute closes at about 4981 and then again at 4989. It looks as if it's possible it could just chop around a little while deciding on direction, but we'll see.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 9:52:13 AM

Intel (INTC) $22.05 +0.82% ...

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 9:51:48 AM

VIX to new daily highs so the bulls do not have control of the ball yet.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 9:51:36 AM

SMH $30.53 +0.29% ...

AMAT $20.59 -1.43% ... Downgraded at Credit Suisse to "Neutral" from "Outperform" Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2008 9:49:26 AM

SPY $137.60 ... after a tap at 38.2% ...

TRAN 4,962.74 -0.27% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 9:49:01 AM

The A/D line's action on the Keltner chart has set up the potential for a decline toward 625 to 500. It doesn't seem inclined as yet to drop to that level, holding above about 900 and currently at 980. However, you should assess the potential for it to drop to that level and to bring equity indices down with it, thinking about how that might impact your trades. Potentially strong support lies in that 625 to 500 zone, if it's tested.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 9:51:31 AM

AD line a bullish +981 so the bulls have field position but the VIX is hovering at daily highs so I don't see that they have the ball. Not much use having good field position if you do not have the ball unless the bulls can get control of it.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 9:43:43 AM

Here's the Keltner chart of the A/D line this morning. I'd say the Keltner resistance was holding so far, wouldn't you? Link The danger, of course, is that it holds and then rolls down from this resistance, rolling prices down, too.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 9:41:00 AM

Both the SPX and OEX approached but didn't even quite touch potential Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes, and both have since pulled back before trying again, as they appear to be attempting now. So far, they're both remaining in a choppy rising price channel that was established the end of last week. No conclusion yet.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 9:37:59 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: the A/D line gapped higher and is currently testing potential Keltner resistance near 1140. At 1421 as I type, the A/D line is of course above that so-called resistance, but the first 15-minute period has not yet elapsed and the A/D line tends to overrun support or resistance a bit, especially first thing in the morning. If the A/D line ends this 15-minute period above about 1250, the chances increase that it has indeed truly broken above resistance, but let's see what happens. The next Keltner resistance is 2330.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 9:32:32 AM

The OEX has potential resistance on 15-minute closes at about 638.40 by the time it's tested and then higher, at about 642. Both the 15-minute and 30-minute charts show potentially strong resistance in the 642-643 zone.

Linda Piazza : 4/7/2008 9:31:26 AM

SPX futures are well above fair value this morning, of course. If cash markets trade in accordance with futures' values, something they don't always do, they'll be rising up again toward Friday's high and potential Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes that would be ata bout 1381.20 by the time it was tested. Further potential resistance is at 1385.90 now, but would be higher by the time it was tested if prices rise straight up toward it. Both the 15-minute and 30-minute charts show potentially significant resistance from about 1386-1388, so that level should be watched closely for rollover potential.

Keene Little : 4/7/2008 9:20:38 AM

Pretty steady ramp up in equity futures during the overnight session with only a relatively minor amount given up since the high. ES and YM rallied above Friday's mid-day high (not the spike high before Friday's open) but NQ and ER have not exceeded Friday's highs. We've had an overlapping move higher since Wednesday's high and the choppy rally looks to continue (key word is choppy).

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 9:19:52 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Beleaguered thrift Washington Mutual Inc. is in negotiations to receive a $5 billion cash infusion from private-equity firm TPG and a consortium of other investors, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

The funding would be structured as both a common and preferred stock offering, the Journal said, citing unnamed sources close to the deal.

In addition, TPG would receive a seat on Seattle-based Washington Mutual's 14-member board. .

TPG, one of the largest players in private equity, has holdings in companies as varied as MGM studios, Alltel Corp. and casino operator Harrah's.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 9:18:34 AM

Here is a quick update on the SPX daily chart. I say quick because this dang thing has not changed much for the last three days. Both support and resistance are holding but I expect we will see a break of one or the other this week.

Here I go out on a limb again. MACD is telling me resistance will be tested before support and if the bulls have enough gunpowder, they will be able to blast it through 1390-1400 resistance. Link

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 9:10:17 AM

This of course does not mean I will short Crude. Shorting Crude is an extremely dangerous trade IMHO.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 9:08:57 AM

Here is another reason I do not want to hold on to my long Crude position, Gold. Gold and Crude trade in unison most of the time and when they get out of sync, like now, they have a tendency to revert to the norm and get back in line with one another. This means either Gold will start to rally or Crude will falter. I think Crude will falter and follow Gold's lead. Link

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 9:05:19 AM

Crude is in rally mode and has broken through its downward trendline but I put much more emphasis on the resistance from the previous swing high at 108.22 made on March 27th (magenta line) so I will probably be exiting the long USO position I have at some point today.

Since trading is a game of probabilities I look for something that will tell me what the probability is that resistance will hold and I need to look no further than the MACD. MACD is telling me resistance at 108 has a greater probability of holding than it does not. Link

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 8:56:53 AM

Markets were quite bullish overnight making a series of higher highs and lows but have now slowed down and consolidated at overnight highs. The price patterns are almost identical on all charts so no indication as to which market was the strongest. Link

Jane Fox : 4/7/2008 8:42:07 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures gained 1% early Monday, extending their strong gains from the previous session, even as the dollar rose against most other major currencies. Crude oil for May delivery rose $1.16 at $107.37 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

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