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Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 1:53:41 AM

Refineries added and additional 152,000 barrels/day of refinery operable capacity!

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 1:36:02 AM

Heating Oil (>500 PPM Sulfer) plunged by 2.67 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 1:34:47 AM

ULS Diesel was up 436,000 barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 1:33:46 AM

SPR added 622K barrels latest week.

Keene Little : 4/10/2008 12:03:51 AM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

If we get an early drop Thursday morning be careful of a potential bear trap since it's the "head-fake" day before opex. I still like the chances for a rally into opex but the price pattern can't tolerate much of a decline. These 120-min charts show some important levels and trend lines I'll be watching:
SPX: Link
DOW: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 11:16:43 PM

I'd say our retracement on the TRAN is currently "in play." 10-minute interval chart with QCharts daily and WEEKLY Pivot levels. May also pick up on 150-pd and 200-pd SMA action. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 11:07:39 PM

SPX Options Chain where the Apr 1350 Put stands out Link

Take a note of the SXY-EJ for May.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:50:18 PM

SPY Options Chain Link

#4 OI for April are the April $126 Puts (SPY-PV) and they're pretty far out the money and traded just 2,259 contracts.

SFB-DH looks like a premium seller. If so, then OI should be significantly higher tomorrow. If NOT, and more directional "not this expiration," then OI would fall.

The SFB-PC and SFB-PB action would represent a pretty good hair cut from these levels. Up and DnTick volumes are going to be CBOE only, not all exchanges.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:14:21 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

As I was updating the 03:00 and then 04:00 internals, gathering information of the 5-minute interval charts of price, the VIX.X action caught my eye as call buyers/put sellers really stepped up from 03:15 to the close with the VIX.X reversing course from 23.50 in rather quick fashion.

IWM went out at $69.81 (April "Max Pain" $70.00) and Tuesday's NH/NL 14:18 was first day since 04/01/08 25:16 that its NH/NL inverted, perhaps a read ahead of today's weakness. Tonight's tally was 22:34.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:06:05 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/9/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 4:01:03 PM

As I warned, we're coming down to the wire as to knowing whether or not the SPX will close above or below its 10-sma. It's cents above it as I type. However, this looks like part of pullback consistent with a right shoulder forming for that potential inverse or reverse H&S laid out in my 3:47:49 post, with perhaps another couple of hours of trading tomorrow morning needed to complete that right shoulder, before we see what happens next. Prices could just charge up or down tomorrow morning as a little formation on a 15-minute chart won't undo some big news, but that's what charts are currently showing as potential action.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 3:47:49 PM

I'm noticing a potential inverses H&S on the 15-minute charts for the OEX and SPX. What does that mean? Since it's still lacking a right shoulder in each case, it might mean that soon, perhaps in the 1357.60-1359.90, the SPX will stall, perhaps this afternoon and perhaps tomorrow morning, and then pull back, perhaps tomorrow morning, perhaps to about the 1351-1353 zone, and then we see what happens next. This is all just supposition, of course, but is a possibility. I don't count on H&S or inverse (reverse) ones to give me much information these days, but they do let me watch potential scenarios like this.

Keene Little : 4/9/2008 3:44:36 PM

Da Bears couldn't quite continue the selling pressure and now it looks like some shorts are running for cover. There remains the possibility we'll get another leg down to finish the decline from Monday since it does not look like an ending pattern to the downside to today's low. Maybe one more thrust lower tomorrow morning and a rally? SPX and DOW have not broken their downtrend lines from Monday yet (1358 and 12550).

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 3:40:03 PM

Another possible turning point approaches: the market-on-close orders at 3:40.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 3:38:49 PM

I see a possibility that the SPX could rattle around between 1330-ish support and 1380-ish resistance for a while, maybe even a month or two, and with the boundaries of that congestion extending every now and then to about 1318 and 1390. With that possibility in mind, another bounce up to that resistance zone seems possible after this 10-sma test, but the bad thing about chop zones getting set up is that the action is less amenable to technical analysis. That's why I kept saying that while I wouldn't be surprised by a 10-sma tset, I didn't know what would happen afterward. I still don't, but I believe there's a slight edge toward a climb to test the resistance over an immediate drop to test the lower support. Only slightly, though. Keep in mind that the SPX is back inside its big triangle on its daily chart and anything goes in there.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 3:34:21 PM

Huge MACD divergences are telling me the bottom is in for the day. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 3:33:29 PM

Okay, here's the problem for those of you making end-of-day decisions as the SPX hovers near its 10-sma: what if the SPX does manage that close at or above the 10-sma, or maybe even just below it? I've been saying for a week that I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10-sma test, but I don't know any more than you do what will happen if the SPX does manage that close above the 10-sma. This I do know, though: if it manages a close at or above it, then others have noticed the pattern and are willing to step in and try to buy ahead of the close on hopes that now that the test has completed, the SPX will spring higher. I still see significant resistance near 1366 and 1380 if the SPX does follow through and attempt to climb.

Your other dilemma is that you might not know until the very last moment whether that close is going to be above or below that benchmark.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 3:33:23 PM

Here are the overnight charts and as you can see all markets are well below their respective previous day lows and overnight lows. Link

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 3:31:55 PM

I am long GLD and my plan was to take 1/2 profits once Gold got to resistance and it is sure there now. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 3:25:44 PM

And there's the SPX back above the daily 10-sma. Whether it stays above it or not is of course uncertain, but as my 3:15:15 post made obvious, I'm not surprised to see this attempt.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 3:15:15 PM

I would not be surprised to see an effort made to drive the SPX back above its daily 10-sma, currently at 1353.02, by the close. Perhaps those earlier attempts were the only ones that will be made or perhaps the SPX will drop closer to its potential downside target of 1348.21 before any more are attempted, but I would factor in a possible attempt, at least. I'm not the only person who ever noticed the SPX's former pattern of rising steeply, consolidating sideways and then dipping to the 10-sma, from which it climbed.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 3:10:11 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now about 1353.60; the OEX's, about 624.95.

Keene Little : 4/9/2008 3:01:37 PM

NDX is making new lows and I see downside potential on that one to about 1790-1800 where it would tag the bottom of its down-channel from Monday's high, shown on this 30-min chart: Link , and the bottom of its up-channel from the March lows, as shown on the 120-min chart: Link . I've got the key level to the downside at 1790 because a break much below that level would suggest we've started a stronger decline.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 2:56:59 PM

Be aware that the tenor sometimes changes when bonds stop trading at 3:00 pm ET. The current movement can accelerate or there can be a complete change in tenor.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 2:55:56 PM

No confirmation of a double-bottom and the bulls who thought there might be one have been proven wrong. The SPX more closely approaches its potential downside target and potential strong support, now at 1348.20. The OEX's version is 622.93-623.51.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 2:48:29 PM

Some buyers decided that the SPX had hit an equal low (five-cent difference) and bought. Let's see if that potential double-bottom formation can confirm, however. Sustained values above the peak between the two lows, with that peak at 1357.65, would be needed. Between here and there is the 15-minute 9-ema, now at about 1354.15, and then there's the potentially significant resistanc at 1356.48 on 30-minute closes, a level that might hamper any efforts to keep the SPX above 1357.65.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 2:34:26 PM

Those making end-of-day decisions in the last 90 minutes of the day should be aware that both the Bank of England and the ECB will be making rate decisions tomorrow morning. The Bank of England is expected to lower rates to 5.0% from the current 5.25%. President Jean-Claude Trichet and the other ECB members are expected to keep rates steady. What's said at President Trichet's press conference, beginning at 8:30 am ET, could impact markets.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 2:24:09 PM

The potentially significant SPX and OEX resistance noted in my 2:00:55 post turned out to be too strong, and neither the SPX nor the OEX maintained their 15-minute closes above their 9-ema's. Now they probably need to hold above their lows of the day to avoid tumbling down toward targets now at 1348.37 for the SPX and 623.05 for the SPX. Although there's not usually a reversal when the day has been a down all day kind of day, I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't at least another attempt to move higher, whether or not it's successful.

Keene Little : 4/9/2008 2:13:40 PM

The downtrend line for SPX from Monday's high is now near 1360 so that's what the bulls need to break through to reverse the short term downtrend we've been in.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 2:10:31 PM

I have a house inspection I need to get to. Will update things after the close.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 2:09:30 PM

Intel (INTC) $21.26 +0.85% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 2:08:57 PM

SMH $29.79 +1.12% ... buyers look like they're going to press the issue. $29.00 was in the cards at $29.26, or so it looked.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 2:05:41 PM

Two 15-minute closes above the 15-minute 9-ema's for the SPX and OEX, but now they each face signficant resistance, as pointed out in my 2:00:55 post. On pullbacks now, if they should occur, bulls want to see the 15-minute 9-ema's hold as support on 15-minute closes. Those are now 1356.02 for the SPX and 626.02 for the OEX.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 2:05:30 PM

GLD should feed off of both USO and eur/$ based on weeks of observation. Any follow through on gold without further USO and euro strength will like find staunch resistance at $93.25.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 2:03:26 PM

USO bulls will be monitoring QR1 ($89.90) "resistance" until eur/$ confirms.

Should be some "fundamental" bears crunching numbers, wondering what went wrong.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 2:00:55 PM

If the SPX continues rising, as it appears it might, watch for potentially strong resistance near 1357.33 on 30-minute closes and then again at 1360. A sustained move above 1360 would signal a more significant change in tenor. For the OEX, these numbers are 626.88 and 629.20.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 1:58:33 PM

I'd have to think it best the YM day trade shorts really tighten down stop after trade at DAILY S2. $/yen juuuuuust above its DAILY S2 and not yet confirming.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 1:53:54 PM

The SPX and OEX both produced their first 15-minute closes of the day above their 15-minute 9-ema's. Now both have to sustain 15-minute closes at or above those averages to truly start changing the tenor. Both are currently below those averages, at about 1355.30 on the SPX and about 625.70 on the OEX.

Keene Little : 4/9/2008 1:49:35 PM

Semiconductors (SMH) have rallied a bit since the mid-day low which could add some bullish bias to techs and then the broader market if it keeps up.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 1:45:04 PM

The SPX and OEX are again tseting their 15-minute 9-ema's, with that at about 1355.30 on the SPX and 625.70 on the OEX. If these manage 15-minute closes above these averages, it will be the first time today, but then the indices still have a lot of work to do to look less bearish. That would be just the first tentative sign of a change in tenor, and one that comes right in the middle of the typical stop-running time of day, so still somewhat suspect.

Keene Little : 4/9/2008 1:31:33 PM

I haven't given up hope for the bulls yet. While I see downside potential to SPX 1340 now, I'm thinking it will take a break below that level to suggest we could see a move back down to the 1270 area over the next couple of weeks. But it now takes a move back above 1370 to put the bulls back in control. SPX 30-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 1:30:56 PM

Big test for the eur/$ today. Matching its 3/26/08 settlement.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 1:25:42 PM

At 11:00 ... Eur/$ was 1.5777 ... Eur/$ 1.5838 here, and off the high of 1.5864.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 1:21:47 PM

At that time ... GLD was trading $91.41, or ~$914.10 spot.

YG was $929.60 (see your volume)

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 1:20:22 PM

Will make note that at 11:00 AM on the button, the DXY fell below its correlative WKLY Pivot and Daily S2.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 1:18:55 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 1:11:56 PM

SMH $29.53 +0.23% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 1:11:32 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now near 1355.75; the OEX's, 625.80.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 1:11:30 PM

IWM $69.99

Keene Little : 4/9/2008 1:11:28 PM

We've got a slow bleed kind of day. From a Fib projection and retracement perspective I see the next support level for SPX near 1340. That's also near the bounce highs on March 5th and 19th. Basically there's a lot of air between here and the last low at 1312.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 12:52:09 PM

A new low of the day for the SPX and OEX will confirm that, once again, the 15-minute 9-ema's have held as resistance on 15-minute closes. The SPX is back testing the daily 10-sma, though, so I'm watching to see if the SPX will instead form an equal low and attempt to bounce. It still maintains a potential downside target now at 1348.24. The OEX's is 623.09.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 12:28:53 PM

Sandisk (SNDK) $26.85 +5.12% ... Has DDX.X +0.67% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 12:28:13 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now about 1357.70; the OEX's, about 626.60. This average so far has been resistance on 15-minute closes all day today, so watch it now to see if there's a change in tenor or the same pattern reinforced.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 12:27:54 PM

Never heard of Mannkind (MNKD) $2.31 -60.51% ... #9 most active.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 12:27:11 PM

BIIB $64.30 -1.25% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 12:26:54 PM

Not AMGN $41.59 +0.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 12:26:37 PM

Biotechnology Index (BTX.X) $742.50 -3.12% ... standout sector loser. Didn't check BBH's $170.17 -1.60% "Max Pain". May be stock news also.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 12:25:58 PM

The TRAN has been absolutely diving. Its 200-sma is about 55-56 points below its now current 4836.08, with a possible support zone only about 10 points below the current value. I'm watching the TRAN as a type of early indicator, especially as it approaches this potential support, to see if there's any change in tenor.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 12:24:32 PM

5-year continues to rally (price) with Yield down 14.9 bp at 2.569%. FF target still 2.25% so may have a way to go.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 12:16:43 PM

iShares S&P Natl. Muni-Bond (MUB) $101.10 +0.47% ... retraces 61.8% of recent "credit crunch" decline.

Flight to some "safety," or recovery?

Have to think "recovery" of some sort as it sure wasn't "safety" down to $96.44 into late February.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 12:13:32 PM

VIX.X 23.46 +4.91% ... no trade yet at its WKLY Pivot

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 12:10:16 PM

Here's where we are on the SPX's daily chart, finally falling to test the 10-sma: Link There's been a tentative bounce from this moving average, but the day is far from over. In my MM comments and in last week's Wrap, I have been noting that even in the strongest of times, the SPX tended to gain big, consolidate 2-5 days, then dip to the 10-sma and bounce. The dip to the 10-sma doesn't surprise me, but I always said that we wouldn't know what was next if that occurred and it would be the results of that test that would tell us something about the near-term stability of the markets. A strong bounce means one thing: a cratering through this means that we should probably expect a test of the 30-sma near 1333 currently. If there's a bounce today that carries through, I would be watchful for potentially strong resistance near 1366.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 12:10:50 PM

Eur/$ high as been 1.58115 ... WKLY Piv 1.571 , WKLY R1 1.592

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 12:09:30 PM

$/yen low has been 101.78. WKLY Pivot 101.06

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 12:07:44 PM

EWJ $12.49 -1.49% ... approaches its WKLY S1 $12.45.

Keene Little : 4/9/2008 12:06:55 PM

The DOW is now approaching the bottom of its parallel up-channel for price action since the March lows, currently near 12470. This correlates with the Fib projection at 12469 for the leg down from Monday's high that I've been showing on the 60-min chart: Link

A break below 12400 would effectively negate the bullish setup (green) that calls for another rally leg up to 13K but until that happens I haven't seen enough bearish evidence in the price pattern to suggest the downside is the more probable path. In fact the pullback is looking like another bull flag.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 12:06:28 PM

SPX is breaking support here but it is still in an uptrend until the swing low at 1328 (March 31st) is breached. Bulls don't like the fact that support as broken but the doji right at resistance (April 7th) was ominous. Of course the bulls still have the MACD on their side. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 12:06:14 PM

Will check $/yen

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 12:05:45 PM

YM /DIA both test WKLY Pivots.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 11:59:06 AM

TSO $28.00 -4.00%

TOL $23.07 -2.57%

PM/MO $50.06/$20.86

PBR $113.97 +0.05%

WHR $88.16 -1.48%

SWC $17.85 +0.90%

YRCW $13.72 -2.00%

CME $502.64 -1.57%

GLD $91.39 +1.14%

BOOM $44.95 -0.70%

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 11:56:10 AM

IWM $70.06 -1.35% ... approaches April's "Max Pain" theory tabulation. (see yesterday's MM)

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 11:55:26 AM

QQQQ $44.80 -1.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 11:55:10 AM

SPY $135.35 -1.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 11:54:56 AM

DIA $124.95 -0.93% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 11:54:29 AM

5-year Yield ($FVX.X) alert! down 11.7 bp now at 2.601%.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 11:45:29 AM

The SPX has now set a potential downside target of 1348.07 on the 15-minute chart. The OEX has set a potential downside target of 623.12. I caution that not all targets are met and the close approaches to the daily 10-sma's make me particularly cautious about these, but you should now factor in vulnerability to those levels. You should also, if in bearish trades, begin thinking about how you'll treat a test of those targets, if they're reached. Those are sometimes also potential support.

Keene Little : 4/9/2008 11:40:17 AM

SPX has now dropped through potential support that stretched down to 1357 and the price pattern has turned more bearish.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 11:35:19 AM

The SPX closed the last 30-miute period on the lowest Keltner support line in a support zone on the 30-minute chart; the OEX, the same. Both are below the wished-it-had-held support levels for those who wanted markets to steady. However, with the OEX having touched or closely approached its daily 10-sma, bears need to be watchful of bounce potential. So far, no bounces have held, but there's now an established pattern of resistance on 15-minute closes at the 15-minute 9-ema, so that can now be watched for a first change in tenor. That's now at 1360.98 for the SPX and 628.06 for the OEX.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 11:27:21 AM

Time to start looking at those daily 10-sma's again. Those are currently 1353.82 for the SPX and about 626.30 for the OEX.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 11:23:06 AM

Currently, potential SPX support on 30-minute closes extends down to about 1357.80, but those hoping for a steadying would prefer a 30-minute close above about 1360.48. OEX potential support extends down to 626.77 on 30-minute closes, but those who want to see a steadying would prefer a close above 627.47 and actually would prefer a bounce back above 629.39.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 11:15:43 AM

I should have gotten back into my USO OTM option. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 11:14:54 AM

So far, no real changes. The SPX again attempts to bounce from that Keltner support on the 30-minute chart, but it again hasn't gotten far, pausing at/beneath the 9-ema's on the 15-minute and 30-minute charts. It's at least attempting to steady at the 15-minute 9-ema, but this isn't much of a change to hang one's hat on. If the SPX continues battering at the support, it's going to weaken it and eventually break through, but so far, it's holding.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 11:12:49 AM

TRAN 4,890 -1.77% ... have slipped under their WKLY Pivot 4,900.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 11:12:17 AM

Chips "firm" ... SMH $29.52 +0.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 11:11:47 AM

5-year Yield's WKLY Pivot untested (26.11, or 2.611%)

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 11:10:37 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 11:04:27 AM

GLD does not have options so your stops are very easy to place. When using options (like I do with USO), in particular out of the money options, you can get hurt with the spread when placing a stop at market.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 11:02:44 AM

OK I have to fess up I am long GLD now but I have a stop very close and will probably be taking 1/2 profits when/if Gold reaches its resistance. Link

Keene Little : 4/9/2008 11:00:12 AM

NDX has led to the downside this morning but it's showing bullish divergence against yesterday morning's low. Semiconductors have been holding flat if not slightly positive. I'm not seeing a lot of bearish confirmation in today's decline, at least not yet.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 10:59:26 AM

This is why I never short Crude. Finds resistance, moves sideways and then takes off. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:53:51 AM

$/yen 102.25 -0.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:53:28 AM

EUR/$ 1.577 +0.37% ...

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 10:50:11 AM

VIX is spiking to new daily highs so this is a rally you can sell into.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 10:49:06 AM

Here's a shorter-term benchmark than the 30-minute ones I've been posting: the SPX's 15-minute 9-ema at 1362. So far, that's been resistance on 15-minute closes all day. The OEX's version is 628.80.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 10:47:13 AM

When you see the VIX and AD line moving in opposite directions you have what I call clear direction. If the AD ratio is moving against the trend then I will use that as a heads up to a possible trend change but that is not the case here today.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 10:45:30 AM

Internals are bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:43:53 AM

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) $115.85 +1.71% ... its 80.9% of recent decline is at $119.30.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:42:26 AM

CBOE Oil Index (OIX.X) 869.88 +1.62% ... retraces 80.9% of its recent Dec/Jan decline.

Keene Little : 4/9/2008 10:42:20 AM

That last little drop has SPX down to its uptrend line from March 17th and into the potential support zone provided by the 30-min 100/130 moving averages (1357-1361).

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 10:40:21 AM

The A/D line reached a new low as prices did: no bullish divergences there, were there? The other potential bullish divergences (price/RSI and Keltner) remain, however.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:37:51 AM

USO $88.77 +1.81% ... that's a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:37:12 AM

DJ- Oil Futures Surge Above $110/BBL On Surprise Draw

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:35:45 AM

EIA: US Refineries Ran At 83.0% Vs. 82.4% Week Ago

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:35:12 AM

EIA: US Distillate Stockpiles Down 3.7M barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:34:37 AM

EIA: US Gasoline Stockpiles Dow 3.4M barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:34:10 AM

US Crude Oil Stockpiles down 3.2M barrels

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:33:19 AM

Swing trade long raise stop alert! ... for the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $91.11 +0.84% Link ... to $89.55.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:28:36 AM

US Rep Frank: Mortgage Servicers Will Face Tougher Regulations

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 10:28:13 AM

Between 1358.88-1360.50 support on 30-minute closes and 1368.42-1369.55 resistance on 30-minute closes: more chop. The SPX bounced promptly where expected, but it's not getting far yet.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:22:47 AM

TOL $23.12 -2.36% ... if given a chance and at low enough price (say $0.25, or $0.30) will want to buy back the previously sold May $27.50 Call (TEP-ET).

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:20:30 AM

DJUSHB 379.63 -2.30% ... sitting on its 200-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:19:56 AM

MBA Application Table I track at this Link

Modest sign of some "stability" with the 4-week average of Seasonally Adjusted purchases edging above its 12-week average.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 10:15:42 AM

I am not a buyer of Gold until it closes above this resistance and negates the bearish head and shoulders. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 10:14:55 AM

Potential bullish divergences (price/RSI and Keltner) are beginning to show up on the SPX's 15-minute charts while prices test significant potential support on the 30-minute chart. I'm using the 30-minute chart to set benchmarks, but dialing down to the 15-minute one to more quickly spot any signs of change. Remember that these are only potential bullish divergences that can still be undone. In any case, such divergences mean only that one should be watchful for a bounce, not offering any proof that one will occur.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 10:10:49 AM

SPX's support is still holding but it looks like not for long. It seems this market needs to break this support then make a higher low before it will make another move upward. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:05:40 AM

As long as ANY homebuyer can do math, there should be no "help me" a year from now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:04:57 AM

Compare that to the 30-year fixed of 5.78%

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 10:04:06 AM

The one-year ARM's 7.06% average is above the week ended 3/21/08 average of 7.02%.

Keene Little : 4/9/2008 10:00:45 AM

SPX looks to be the next index to test its uptrend line from March 7th, now at 1359. The DOW's is lower at 12490. NDX has broken its uptrend line and yesterday's low and sets a more bearish tone this morning.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 9:59:47 AM

As has been true so many days lately, the OEX actually looks weaker from a Keltner standpoint than the SPX. Its potential support on 30-minute closes, now extending down to 627.84, does not look as firm. Keep an eye on the OEX, now at 628.22.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 9:58:36 AM

The current level of potential support on 30-minute closes for the SPX extends down to 1358.99. As I type, it still looks relatively firm. Although prices can of course cascade through this support, bears need to be aware that this support could hold on a 30-minute close and protect profits accordingly.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 9:55:46 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey Link

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 9:55:41 AM

VIX is very clearly bearish but the AD line is flopping around 0 so the markets are flopping as well. "Flopping" is my new technical term.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 9:53:02 AM

UPS Shares Fall After Cutting Outlook ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 9:51:57 AM

YRCW $13.69 -2.21% ... slips below recent congestion's range.

Keene Little : 4/9/2008 9:50:23 AM

The DOW is holding in the green and NDX is down 8 points. It's a recipe for chop this morning while we wait to see who is going to win the tug of war.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 9:50:18 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 4,907 -1.42% ...

UPS $70.90 -3.28% ...

FDX $94.25 -1.87% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 9:49:44 AM

The OEX's daily 10-sma has now risen to 625.94.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2008 9:48:22 AM

Boeing 787 Launch To Be Delayed Again ... AP Story Link

BA $78.30 +4.42% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 9:48:12 AM

Try not to make too many assumptions with each jit and jot of the markets. The SPX is still chopping around inside the chop zone defined on the 30-minute chart before the market open. I repeat as I have so many times this last week that I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPX drop down to test its 10-sma, now at 1354.32, but that's not promised, and the SPX might keep on consolidating sideways until that 10-sma rises closer underneath.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 9:45:56 AM

The A/D line will not likely be closing this 15-minute period above that resistance being tested. Instead, we should now be looking at next potential support, now at -200 to -275. A/D line is now -151.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 9:44:50 AM

As stated earlier, I'm using the 30-minute benchmarks today, but it is perhaps worth noting that the SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now about 1364.80. The OEX's is about 630.15, with both currently being exceeded by a bit.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 9:43:42 AM

VIX is quite clear now.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 9:43:30 AM

VIX to new daily highs and the S&P futures spiked to the downside.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 9:38:09 AM

AD line is a neutral +308 and VIX is not doing much of anything. So just sit on your hands until you see a clear direction.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 9:37:26 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line jumped up to challenge significant potential resistance on 15-minute closes at about 210. The next resistance is near 610. If that 610 level is approached, equity bulls should be aware of pullback potential from that level and make efforts to guard their profits, just in case. Don't assume, though, that the A/D line will get that far immediately this morning as it has not yet closed a 15-minute period above the line now near 210. The A/D line is 336 as I type, down slightly but not significantly from its day's high.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 9:27:58 AM

'The bull never left' Commentary: Russell now says bull market that began in early 1980s still alive."


If you are a bear - DO NOT READ THIS ARTICLE!!!

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 9:23:45 AM

This was quite a volatile overnight session, about as many trading opportunities as there were all day yesterday.

The patterns on all markets were almost identical and all markets are now trading back into their respective ON ranges. When you have a very obvious ON high and low like this it is worthwhile to take note of those levels because more than likely they will be support/resistance intraday. Link

Keene Little : 4/9/2008 9:20:21 AM

Equity futures sold off steadily during the overnight session and then got one of those manufactured rallies from the 6:00 AM low, half of which has been given up. We've got a negative start to the day and based on the price patterns that could set up a negative day if it doesn't get turned around quickly.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 9:14:53 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve is considering contingency plans for expanding its lending power in the event its recent steps to unfreeze credit markets fail.

Among the options: Having the Treasury borrow more money than it needs to fund the government and leave the proceeds on deposit at the Fed; issuing debt under the Fed's name rather than the Treasury's; and asking Congress for immediate authority for the Fed to pay interest on commercial-bank reserves instead of waiting until a previously enacted law permits it in 2011.

.No moves are imminent because the Fed still has plenty of balance sheet room for additional lending now. The internal discussions are part of a continuing effort at the Fed, similar to what is under way at foreign central banks, to determine its options if the credit crunch becomes even more severe. Fed officials believe the availability of such options largely eliminates the risk of exhausting its stockpile of Treasury bonds and thus losing its ability to backstop the financial system, as some on Wall Street fear.

British and Swiss central banks also are contemplating contingency plans. For now, the European Central Bank is reluctant to consider options that require substantial modifications of its standard tools.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2008 9:11:45 AM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Mortgage application filings rose a seasonally adjusted 5.4% last week compared with the last week of March, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Wednesday.

Interest rates charged on fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgages increased across the board.

Applications for the week ended April 4 were up 10.9% compared with the same week a year ago.

Both applications for mortgages to purchase homes and to refinance existing mortgages rose on a week-to-week basis, according to the Washington-based MBA's weekly survey.

Refinancing filings rose 3.4%, while home purchase applications increased a seasonally adjusted 8.1%.

The number of applications for Federal Housing Administration-backed loans also went up last week. The seasonally adjusted government index, which includes mostly FHA loans and covers both purchase mortgages and refinancings, increased 12.9%, the MBA's data showed.

Linda Piazza : 4/9/2008 9:09:06 AM

SPX futures are down but are slightly above fair value. Other futures are mixed, as are European markets this morning. Gains aren't too big; neither are losses. The SPX has presumably strong support on 30-minute closes at about 1359.50-1361.20. I'm going to use the 30-minute chart for my benchmarks this morning, and that shows potential resistance on 30-minute closes at about 1369.25. That means there's a 10-point range that's essentially a chop zone. For the OEX, that somewhat smaller zone is marked by potential support on 30-minute closes at 628.10 and potential resistance on 30-minute closes at about 632.25.

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