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Keene Little : 4/10/2008 10:17:09 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

NDX is a good representative for the stock market since they all look roughly the same. I continue to expect more upside into next week but I have no idea how tortuous the path might be. The critical level for bulls to hold is the March 31st low (NDX 1764) but a break below Thursday's low would be a heads up that something more bearish is happening. So as long as 1815 holds I would look to buy the dips for now. The upside target is 1927-1945 by opex Friday (potentially sooner). Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/10/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 5:42:02 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 5:34:14 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 4:40:16 PM

YM 12,602

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 4:39:45 PM

pound/$ 1.9717 -0.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 4:38:57 PM

$/yen 101/94 +0.15% ... also quiet after intra-day rally.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 4:38:01 PM

Eur/$ very quiet on Fed update ... 1.5742 -0.56%

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 4:35:25 PM

Total Discount Window Borrowings Wed $33.838 Bln
Avg Daily Borrowings Week of April 9 $42.761 Bln
Primary Dealer Borrowings Wed $26.48B; Avg Daily $32.56B
US Primary Dealers Drop Borrowings At New Fed Facility.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 4:23:26 PM

Good gravy ... TRINQ was pinned below 0.50 almost entire day. Similar to 04/01/08.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 4:09:49 PM

BBH's April "Max Pain" theory $170.00 ... $5 inc.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 4:09:06 PM

Biotech HOLDRs (BBH) $175.44 +2.68% ... $174.00 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 4:08:25 PM

Genentech (DNA) $78.00 +0.37% ... slips to $76.00 extended on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 4:00:43 PM

WHR Daily interval bar chart Link

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 4:00:11 PM

Hopefully, we'll see this stalemate broken tomorrow, but that's not certain. Some charts are set up to show a bounce attempt, but those don't give that a probability but only a slight, slight edge over a daily close below the 10-sma and they don't yet give much imput as to whether prices will break above March highs.

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 3:54:24 PM

Another reminder: GE's earnings are to be released tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 3:51:34 PM

WHR $84.65 -2.75% ... probes its 150-day SMA. Has served support since close above on 3/18/08 at $85.47.

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 3:50:28 PM

Potential 30-minute support is at 1358.79 currently, so it's uncertain as yet whether the SPX will close above it or below it. Same goes for a close above or below the 10-sma, just below the current value now. I tend to discount these moves at the very end of the day or very beginning. Essentially, it looks as if we'll have a doji or small-bodied candle with long upper and lower shadows today. Bulls and bears were battling it out and neither one.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 3:49:03 PM

WHR $85.00 ... it is a "toss a coin" with just 6 days to expiration. See what, if anything we can squeeze out of the WHR-PP $0.45 x $0.55.

Keene Little : 4/10/2008 3:42:02 PM

I've got to get out of here a little early. So far the pullback from today's high looks corrective so I'm still leaning towards more upside. But this morning's low is now a must hold for the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 3:41:35 PM

RB ... In my email to you, I said I didn't see a "reverse H/S" ... wait ... I do see it. Neckline right here. I think I was looking at 60-minute interval. Not daily when I replied to your email.

Keene Little : 4/10/2008 3:39:47 PM

Adding to Jane's commentary, I was looking at CNQ as well (I received a copy of the same email question). My take on it is that it will head a little higher but in a choppy fashion. Draw trend lines along the highs and lows since the January low and it forms a rising wedge. It could top out around 80 and then ideally another down-up sequence to a retest of the November high (87.17) in May/June timeframe for an end to its rally.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 3:39:06 PM

PnF question regarding Canadian Nat. Resources (CNQ) ... Dorsey/Wright Chart Link

Bullish vertical count column under construction to $68 + ((11 * 3) * 1= $101.

It would take a trade at $79 to generate a spread triple top buy signal.

RISK to a sell signal currently to $66. Potential longer-term bullish reward is bullish vertical count. Risk/reward roughly 1:2.

Very good field position at 56%, so not "overbought" at >70%. Stock's relative strength (RS) vs. marker is outperforming near and longer-term.

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 3:32:21 PM

So boring, isn't it? It's worse than boring, however, if you're long April options as they're frittering away time value as consolidation continues. It's possible that this could continue into tomorrow morning, perhaps until the U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number at 9:55 am ET, before you know the ultimate direction, so evaluate whether you want to stay in overnight. The G-7 meetings begin tomorrow, too. Tonight in Japan, the March corporate goods price index will be released.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 3:15:55 PM

DNA showing heavy Call OI at $80 and $85 strikes. Equally matched at 15,036 and 15,703. Heaviest put is at $75 with 9,529

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 3:15:20 PM

I have had a question about CNQ and about this triple top. This is similar to the Crude pattern in that it is making a triple top but the MACD is telling me this resistance will hold and the stock will need to retrace before it breaks through. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 3:13:45 PM

Genentech (DNA) $78.57 +1.10% Link ... set to report after the close. Street looking for EPS of $0.82 on revenue of $3.11B.

DNA's April "Max Pain Theory" currently tabulated at $75.00 ... $5 inc.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 3:09:02 PM

Millennium Pharma Soars on Takeda Bid ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 3:07:15 PM

Volume rather average with an hour to go. NYSE has turned just over 2.6 million shares. New highs a modest 33 vs. 42 new lows with energy-related sectors resting with a fractional gain.

NASDAQ reports 31 new highs to 103 new lows.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 3:04:52 PM

NYSE has advancers outnumbering decliners by a 2:1 margin, while buyers hold their ground among 4 and 5-lettered stock symbols at the NASDAQ by a 17:11 margin.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 3:03:46 PM

Treasuries closed for the day with the 13-week lower by 4 bp at 1.235%, but sellers drove the 5-year yield up 7.7 bp at 2.659%, 10-year up 6.6 bp to 3.532% and 30-year up 3.6 bp to 4.342%.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 3:00:57 PM

VIX is telling me we have more upside to go before the day is done. Link

Keene Little : 4/10/2008 2:57:56 PM

The bulls are not in trouble until yesterday's lows are taken out but after today's kiss goodbye against the broken uptrend line from March 17th, it doesn't look good here for SPX (60-min chart): Link . But we've seen more than once how the bulls can keep pushing the index up underneath a broken uptrend line. It was maddening how long they kept doing that last year before the top.

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 2:56:38 PM

The bond market will be closing in a few minutes. Although we don't always see a reaction, it's still important to recognize that the tenor of equity trading sometimes changes as the bond market closes. Sometimes the previous move accelerates; sometimes there's a reversal. Will there be a breakout, out of this consolidation zone over the next few hours? Could be, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the markets continue to consolidate another few trading hours, into tomorrow, either.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 2:52:29 PM

DXY 71.17 +0.47% (30-minute delayed) .... juuuuuuuuuuust above your WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 2:51:49 PM

$/yen low was 100.02 ... high has been 102.04 ... 101.76 here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 2:50:41 PM

YM 12,601

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 2:49:57 PM

TRIN 1.01 ... "sloppy" around WKLY Pivot.

Just about every stock with a profile looking very round numberish here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 2:44:52 PM

VIX.X 21.85 -4.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 2:44:32 PM

Swing trade put cancel target alert! for the Whirlpool WHR April $80 Put (WHR-PP) of $85.00.

WHR $85.26 -2.05% ... session low has been $85.05.

WHR-PP are $0.40 x $0.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 2:40:44 PM

GLD and YG could be vulnerable back to WKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 2:39:13 PM

Swing trade long exit alert! ... for the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $91.54 -0.81% ...

YG $930.70 (+13.70 from 04/04/08 GLD entry)

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 2:32:27 PM

If this support breaks, next support for the SPX appears to be near 1358.60. This support looks relatively strong, but not so strong that the lower support can't be tested. As I noted earlier, I expected most consolidation to take place between 1361-1368, but thought it might extend to 1359-1369 or so, which complicates the picture if the SPX does move down to test 1358.60. Is that a true break of support or just a test of lower support, part of the consolidation. The 30-minute chart suggests it's just part of the consolidation, but . . .

Keene Little : 4/10/2008 2:29:27 PM

SPX is now leading to the downside in breaking the lows near 1:00 PM so the bullish upside pattern has been negated. This now makes the picture for price action into tomorrow muddier. I thought we might get some clarity today but nothing doing with this market.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 2:25:23 PM

USO $87.61 -1.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 2:24:41 PM

GLD $91.34 -1.02% ... $~913.40 spot

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 2:23:52 PM

$/Yen 101.83 +0.04%

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 2:23:15 PM

Eur/$ 1.573 -0.63% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 2:22:05 PM

US Govt. Posted $48.14 Bln Total Budget Deficit In March

Consensus was for a much larger deficit of $70.3B

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 2:21:44 PM

Why am I not listing the 15-minute 9-ema's for the SPX and OEX this afternoon? When choppy consolidation periods set up, the 9-ema flattens and the SPX and OEX chop across it with such movements meaning little.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 2:18:18 PM

Swing trade covered call cancel order alert! ... for the YUX-DC from 10:28:51 AM.

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 2:07:55 PM

What to say? The action is what I expected, as laid out in my 11:47:38 post. Currently, Keltner channels are lining up to validate that possible scenario, although it was derived from other information. Keltner charts are showing potentially strong support on 15-minute closes layering down to 1360.71 although bulls would prefer that the 1362.90-ish support hold. Resistance on 15-minute closes layers up to about 1367.25. For the OEX, potential support layers down to 629.18 although bulls would rather 629.90-ish support hold on 15-minute closes. Potential resistance layers up to 631.98.

The Keltner setup doesn't currently give a prediction of which way markets will break or when they will break. It could be later this afternoon or tomorrow, and could, worse case, not be until Monday.

Keene Little : 4/10/2008 2:03:47 PM

If the lows near 1:00 PM are taken out then we've either seen the high for the leg up from yesterday afternoon (with a very short, or truncated, 5th wave) or else we're going to stay mired in nothing but 3-wave corrective price action. Regardless, if the market drops below those lows then the high could be in for the day.

Keene Little : 4/10/2008 1:50:31 PM

For today's rally, the techs continue to take the lead and if the little consolidation near the high is complete it will lead to a 5th wave higher. Using NDX, if the 5th wave equals the 1st wave, which is the leg up from yesterday afternoon to this morning's opening high, then we get an upside target of 1875.76 (with a lower Fib target at 1867.26 which now coincides with the broken uptrend line from March 17th).

After the high we should get a larger pullback into tomorrow which will then lead higher into next week. I'll be watching for the wave pattern to either confirm or negate this count, depicted on the 10-min chart: Link

Tab Gilles : 4/10/2008 1:39:25 PM


Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 1:30:20 PM

Just more chop between 1361-1368 support and resistance on 15-minute closes.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 1:05:38 PM

I trade with a gentleman who is an AA pilot and he stated the shutdown was way overblown. All AA needs to do is replace some insulation around wheel wells.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 1:04:00 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- AMR Corp. said American Airlines canceled 922 flights Thursday but by Saturday night, all 300 MD-80s are likely to be back in service. By late Thursday afternoon, American plans to have 130 of the planes back in service with about 210 aircraft flight-worthy by Friday night. American also said customers scheduled to fly on canceled flights may request a full refund. The airline will hold a media briefing at 1 p.m. central time to discuss the status of the inspections for its MD-80 fleet.

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 12:54:49 PM

Chop, chop. Sorry, but as I said earlier, this could go on for up to a day or so. SPX bulls would certainly like for the SPX to hold above 1362.65 on 15-minute closes; OEX bulls, above 629.80 although they would prefer above 630.50.

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 12:46:44 PM

A bounce off the rising 15-minute 9-ema for both the SPX and OEX. That's what bulls want to see, but there's still that upside resistance that could stall them. That's at about 1366 on daily closes for the SPX, and about 633.60 for the OEX.

Keene Little : 4/10/2008 12:39:48 PM

If we see price consolidate near the highs, for maybe another 30 minutes, it should press higher again and give us a 5-wave move up from yesterday afternoon's low. The new high would then set up a deeper pullback correction but would tell us the trend is back to the upside.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 12:25:59 PM

VIX continues to make new daily lows so this is not a time to fade this market. Link

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 12:23:46 PM

AD line hit a high of +1030 and is now at +887.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 12:21:59 PM

Looks like the SPX bulls have taken back control but they need to break resistance at 1390-1400 before they can breath easy. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 12:14:05 PM

Equity bulls want to see the SPX maintain 15-minute closes above 1362.15. That's 629.72 for the OEX. Remember that this could be part of a protracted consolidation that could occupy hours or even a day or so. That's not proven, but it's certainly a possibility.

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 12:06:32 PM

Now you SPX and OEX bulls need to be asking yourselves some questions. What if the SPX and OEX do consolidate for up to a day? What does that mean if the SPX ends the day somewhere between 1361-1368 or maybe 1359-1369?

What it will mean is that we don't know what's going to happen next, that we just saw the anticipated bounce attempt from the 10-sma, but that the climb was stopped at/below the triangle and other resistance. If that happens, the SPX could just as easily tumble back through that triangle on the daily chart ad it could break above it and charge up toward 1378-1382, where the next level of potentially strong resistance lies, the 38.2 percent retracement of the long slide down since last fall.

So, what do you want to do with your positions, particularly if they're April calls? For starters, if you're used to making your exits contingent only on SPX or OEX price, I'd begin thinking about how much premium decay I'd be willing to accept in those expiring-next-week April options. There's the possibility that you could even go into the weekend with the SPX or OEX still in that range. At this point, a day's worth of relatively tight consolidation would adversely impact your option's values. Plus, the net effect would be indecision about what happens next.

Of course, perhaps the SPX will just continue gaining all day and you won't have to face this possibility, but I suggest that you do some just-in-case thinking and planning, too.

Keene Little : 4/10/2008 12:02:32 PM

SPX is also approaching its broken uptrend line from March 17th, near 1367.50, and it's short term overbought so at least a pullback from that level should be expected.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 11:48:33 AM

Internals are very bullish so I would not try fading this market. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 11:47:57 AM

The SPX is approaching and the OEX has hit a level at which we might expect strong resistance. Barring a strong whoosh higher, which could of course occur, what looks most likely is--I hate to say it--consolidation. Maybe a day's worth. Maybe between 1361-1368 or 1369. This isn't a promise, and the 30-minute chart argues against it, but is a definite possibility.

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 11:30:56 AM

I'm back. I wanted to mention that my information shows that at 1:00 pm ET, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will participate in a forum in Richmond on the President's Working Group, the PWG, and financial stability. Bullet points issuing out of that forum could of course prove market moving. I read last night that representatives of 10 large financial institutions across the globe have been invited to address the G-7 forum that begins tomorrow, with their input designed to address steps that might be made to prevent a financial crisis. Not a cheery thought, is it, that this is still at the forefront.

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 11:20:49 AM

I'm having some difficulties with my brokerage's platform that I must resolve. Be back soon. SPX bulls want to see continued 15-minute closes above about 1362.75, but the 15-minute 9-ema is now about 1359.30.

Keene Little : 4/10/2008 11:16:58 AM

NDX is nearing a potential retest of its broken uptrend line from March 17th, currently near 1862 and only 5 points higher. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 11:15:23 AM

For the last few minutes, the SPX has been testing that presumably strong resistance level that I mentioned earlier, with that level near 1362.45. As I type, it's pushing above it, but it has of course completed neither a 15-minute nor 30-minute close above it. Still, this is good news for the bulls as far as it goes. Next resistance on the 15-minute chart is 1367.31, but do be aware of daily resistance near 1366.

For the OEX, next potential resistance on the 15-minute chart is 631.37.

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 10:52:21 AM

The SPX is pushing above the 1358.02 resistance on 30-minute closes, but of course has not yet closed a 30-minute period above that. This, however, is within the hour or so time frame that I thought an attempt to push higher might occur, so we'll see if it holds. Watch potentially strong resistance now near 1362.45. That may be strong enough to knock the SPX back or stall it, barring a whoosh higher. If so, equity bulls want to see the SPX stay above 1358-1359.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 10:44:51 AM

At 10:04 ES (S&P futures) made a new daily low but the VIX did not make a new daily high telling me the downside had little chance of follow through. Link

Keene Little : 4/10/2008 10:42:50 AM

Techs continue to look strong this morning and that should keep you cautious if you're thinking about the short side. The potential for a broader market rally remains good. The DOW has broken the downtrend line from Monday's high and that could be the signal that the pullback is finished. If true then we should see the DOW now hold above 12520 in another pullback. 60-min chart update: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 10:34:18 AM

BTK.X 786.23 +5.53% ... looks like MLNM $24.44 +49.48% buyout.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 10:33:09 AM

EIA: Weekly Nat. Gas Storage Table Link ... Draw of 14 Bcf

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 10:32:07 AM

I have a morning meeting downtown at 09:30 MDT. A spring snowstorm has come into Denver and I'd better get a move on. Should be back by 01:30-02:00 EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 10:28:51 AM

Swing trade covered call setup alert! ... Please place an order to sell covered ... two (2) of the YRC Worldwide YRCW April $15 Calls (YUX-DC) for $0.60 (currently $0.20 x $0.25) as YRCW $14.00 +5.10% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 10:27:33 AM

The SPX needs a 30-minute close above 1357.96 and 15-minute closes above 1358.60 before we can consider the current consolidation period concluded, but then it's going to hit presumably strong resistance at about 1362.30-1362.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 10:26:03 AM

$/Yen 100.54 -1.23% ...

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 10:25:41 AM

Very clearly you would not want to be long Crude here. When trading you are playing a game of probabilities and the probably that Crude will break $110/bl resistance is less than the probability it will not break this resistance. Why do I say this? Simply based on the MACD. The double top at $110 was not confirmed by the MACD. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 10:25:39 AM

GBP/$ ... 1.9803 +0.23%

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 10:23:34 AM

Eur/$ 1.583 call it unch.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 10:22:05 AM

Central Bank Interest Rates ... The Bank of England (BOE) cut interest rates by a quarter-point to 5%, citing "disruption in financial markets."

The European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates steady at 4%, while Iceland's central bank hiked rates by a half-point.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 10:16:11 AM

TRAN 4,831 +0.58% ... edges green.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 10:15:09 AM

YRCW $13.78 +3.45% ... checks back at WKLY Pivot. 10-minute interval chart has 150-pd at $14.11. 200-pd at $14.19

Keene Little : 4/10/2008 10:05:46 AM

Techs are holding up while the DOW and SPX give up their early-morning bounce. So far it's a recipe for more chop. I continue to see the possibility for SPX to drop down to the 1340 area before finding a low.

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 10:05:30 AM

The USDJPY pulled back after our open. At 100.45, it still maintains a rising trendline off this morning's 100.01 low. Good news/bad news is mixed here.

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 9:57:06 AM

According to the possible scenario laid out late yesterday and this morning, I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPX chop around near the current level for an hour or more before we know final direction.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 9:54:09 AM

S&P futures are making new daily lows but the VIX is NOT making new daily highs so do not expect follow through.

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 9:53:02 AM

The A/D line is now -453, actually dropping a bit lower than I expected it to drop. I thought the -230 level might provide support. Next support, if it doesn't pull up by the end of this 15-minute period, appears to be near -760 to -840, but there's still the possibility that it will bounce back to about -230 by the end of this 15-minute period. Meanwhile, the SPX is falling back into that 1351-1353 zone. Bulls want this to hold as potential support. Otherwise, the next support is near 1347.40-1348.80.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 9:44:57 AM

AD line is a neutral -21

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 9:39:18 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line. The A/D line can be volatile early in the morning, as we know from watching it often. Before I mention Keltner support and resistance, it should be noted that the A/D line had potential trendline resistance at about 250. It's pierced that but is pulling back to that trendline as I type. If it then continues a pullback below that, it has potentially strong Keltner support at about -230. If it continues climbing, there's historical resistance near +1400 and potentially strong Keltner resistance now at about 1600. The A/D line has still been pulling back as I typed, and is now back below that trendline, so I think that a possible drop to test that Keltner support must be considered. If it drops, that might bring the SPX back to test that 1351-1353 zone, too.

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 9:36:14 AM

No SPX decline to test 1351-1353 this morning, but the possibility of such a decline still exists. Factor in the possibility that the SPX could pull back from a test of 1357.20-1359.50. It's not yet a probability but is a possibility.

Keene Little : 4/10/2008 9:31:24 AM

We've got a little bounce off the pre-market lows in equity futures but we'll have a down opening this morning. Be careful about an early-morning low followed by a reversal.

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 9:24:55 AM

A big argument against that scenario laid out in my 9:21:25 post is the action of the USDJPY overnight and this morning. The USDJPY continued its drop, touching a low of 100.01 at 7:15. Neither the U.S. nor the Japanese markets were open at that time, so that move was a bit suspect. The USDJPY has been bouncing since then, but is still far below its levels yesterday. It needs to continue bouncing if the U.S. equities are to have any hope of rallying or sustaining a rally, if they attempt one.

Linda Piazza : 4/10/2008 9:21:25 AM

Futures are near the flat-line level this morning. One possible scenario as of the close yesterday was that the SPX might attempt to bounce this morning, but perhaps not until after an hour or two spent chopping around near 1351-1353. The futures action fits with that possible scenario but certainly doesn't prove it will unfold. We'll have to see how things fit in this morning, but factor that possibility into your trading plan.

If that occurs and then there's a bounce attempt, resistance might be strong near 1355, 1358.50-1359.50, again near 1363, and especially at about 1366. If would advise bulls to make advance decisions this morning about how they would handle a test of 1366 ahead of time because that's a likely point for many to start selling, if they're going to do so.

This is just a possible scenario. For a week, I've been advising that I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10-sma test, and, late yesterday, I warned that I wouldn't be surprised to see an attempt to close the SPX above that 10-sma. That all happened, but I was never sure what would happen next. What happens next is the whole point that helps determine whether this is just part of the chopping around within that big triangle on the daily chart or whether it's part of a up trending move that might continue for a week or two or maybe more. It will take a move above the week's high to suggest that it's part of a trending move to the upside. Sustained moves below yesterday's low would suggest it's just part of the chop.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 9:16:58 AM

It looks like Crude has found a higher support at $108.00. Funny but when Crude first hit $110/bl I was hearing about it all over the news now that it is back at $110/bl for a second time I have heard nothing. Are we getting used to crude at $110/bl now? Link

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 9:14:21 AM

Gold is bumping up against its resistance and I will be selling 1/2 my GLD position today. I didn't get a lot but I was not expecting too much since I put on the trade knowing full well Gold will come to a screeching halt at resistance. Link

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 9:12:01 AM

SPX broke support yesterday but the bulls are not too worried quite yet. They still have a higher high from April 7th so as long as the swing low from March 28th remains in tact the trend is up.

The bulls do have another thing to worry about and that is the ominous double top (which is actually a triple top) made on April 7th. Double (triple) tops are bearish and suggest the bulls are not strong enough to break through this resistance. What is keeping me bullish is the MACD. It has not made a triple top but a higher high so I think the trend will remain up. Link

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 9:02:46 AM

A rather uneventful overnight session but the lower lows do tell you the bears had control most of the night. Of course, the 8:30 reports did not help the bulls wrestle any of that control away from them. Link

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 8:55:07 AM

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (in a regulatory filing late Wednesday said three investment funds formed with third-party investors were liquidated due to "market disruptions that occurred in the second half of the 2007 fiscal year and further deterioration in the 2008 quarter." The company said investments held by the funds were hit by downgrades from the ratings agencies and saw their market values fall. The funds' assets were moved onto Lehman's balance sheet and were valued at roughly $1 billion as of Feb. 29, the filing said

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 8:54:02 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. trade deficit widened unexpectedly in February, painting an even gloomier picture for the economy.

The increase was not even caused by the two usual culprits for the deficit, imports of oil from the Middle East and imports of cheap goods from China.

The nation's trade deficit expanded 5.7% in February to $62.3 billion from a revised $59.0 billion in January, the Commerce Department said.

This is the largest trade gap and the one-month worsening in the deficit since November. The widening of the deficit came from record imports of food, industrial supplies, capital goods and consumer goods.

The widening of the deficit was unexpected. Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch had expected the deficit to narrow to $57.5 billion.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2008 8:53:05 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5 fell 53,000 to 357,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday, easing back some recent gains.

The four-week average of those claims rose 2,500 to 378,250 -- the highest level since October 2005. The prior weekly result for initial claims was revised to 410,000 from a first estimate of 407,000.

Economists see readings consistently higher than 350,000 as signaling significant weakening in the labor market. Initial claims ranging from about 300,000 to 325,000 are consistent with a healthy rate of U.S. employment growth.

For the week ending March 29, continuing jobless claims rose 3,000 to 2.94 million - the highest since July 2004. During the same period in the prior year, the level reached 2.51 million.

The four-week moving average of continuing jobless claims gained 36,500 to 2.9 million - the highest level since August 2004.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 6:04:40 AM

Shanghai up 57, or 1.69% at 3,471. Link . Low/high so far has been 3,345/3,474

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 6:04:37 AM

Hang Seng up 202, or +0.84% at 24,187. Link

Low/High so far 23,906/24,214 ... no chart action on 100-point box.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 6:04:32 AM

Nikkei-225 down 166, or -1.27% at 12,945. Link

Low was 12,899. So two (2) "O" to 12,900. That's where $NIKK recently gave a reversing higher dt buy signal.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 5:49:25 AM

YM off 66 at 12,506

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 5:49:08 AM

$ getting whacked against the yen ... 100.37 -1.39% as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 5:44:17 AM

Global Equity Benchmarks, Currencies, Oil, Gold and $HUI.X table at this Link

Note: The Beetle's Benchmark utilizes the bond market observation, but does not show individual currency impact. My GEBCOGH table above does not encompass bonds, but breaks out the three major currencies.

Shoot! The heading "4/4 to 4/9/08" should read "4/7 to 4/9/08".

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2008 5:05:08 AM

Beetle's Balanced Benchmark comparison Link

Top: Represents the rebalancing we did the evening of 03/31/07, and how each asset class has performed in the first seven (7) trading sessions of the second quarter. Muni bonds take top spot for price gain among FIXED INCOME and may suggest some of the log jam the Fed is working on is tarting to unjam.

Q1 action found EQUITY in needd of adjustment and the rebalance even after today, has shown some reward.

Hard assets had a FANTASTIC Q1 and that trend looks to persist with oil outperforming in Q2. Silver SURGED in Q1 and remains a favored shiny metal.

Total for Q2 with an overly diversified portfolio +1.95%.

Bottom: This would continue to represent a "buy and hold" from 12/31/07 close, and represent year-to-date performance of asset classes.

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