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OI Technical Staff : 4/11/2008 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 4:51:52 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 4:47:04 PM

Not that much ... SPY goes out $133.37 -1.94% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 4:08:30 PM

TSO $26.89 -3.23%
TOL 22.47 -2.34%
PM/MO $48.33 -0.67%/$21.37 -1.47%
PBR $112.85 -2.01%
WHR $82.73 -2.91% (CLOSED TODAY)
SWC $16.97 -3.35%
YRCW $13.32 -2.27%
CME $488.90 -2.14%
FXP $81.31 +2.96%

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 4:02:01 PM

SPY $133.27

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 3:56:32 PM

Should be some buy on close order impalance.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 3:49:55 PM

IWM $68.49 -2.80% ... battles to hang on to 0.32% Q2 gain.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 3:48:14 PM

Sector Winners ... Utilities +0.34%, Treasuries, Munis and high grade corporates.

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 3:40:09 PM

I've got to take off early again so I'll miss the close. Remember, this market has had the habit of reversing strong moves, especially ones that close at either the high or low of the day. It's also still possible this will turn into a head-fake day as we head into opex. In other words we could see a reversal of today's decline and rally next week. This market has proven the ability to do that countless times in the past three months. Have a great weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 3:25:37 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2008 3:15:58 PM

The bears have been relentless today and that makes me wonder if the swing low from March 31st will hold up. We will not get a test of that support today but we may next week. Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2008 3:15:43 PM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Frontier Airlines Holdings Inc. said Friday that it's filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection but -- in contrast to the rest of the recent spats of collapsed carriers -- hopes to continue operating normal service.

The low-cost airline, based in Denver, said the decision was taken after its principal credit-card processor unexpectedly said it would start withholding "significant proceeds" received from the sale of tickets.

Frontier joined a growing list of airlines filing for bankruptcy amid rising fuel prices and a slowing economy. In recent days, Skybus Airlines, Aloha Airlines and ATA Airlines have all shut down. Charter carrier Champion Air will cease flying at the end of May.

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 3:10:59 PM

SPX 1331 here we come. But if tagged will it hold? It would coincide closely with DOW 12300.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 3:10:00 PM

USO $88.44 +0.29% ... edges back green.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 3:05:28 PM

RUT.X 690.31 is lows of session here. Will they turn them on?

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 3:02:18 PM

Internals still burried

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 3:01:52 PM

$/Yen just above morning low. Still bearish and could remain directional to the close.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 3:01:04 PM

5-year off 8.5 bp at 2.574% ... 1-minute until close.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 2:59:47 PM

YM long stop exit alert! 12,346

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 2:53:44 PM

YM Long raise stop alert! to 12,346. YM 12,356

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 2:52:49 PM

$/yen 100.80

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 2:52:35 PM

YM 12,353

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 2:52:17 PM

YM Long finger on the button alert !

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 2:51:50 PM

YM long raise stop alert! ... to break even. YM 12,348

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 2:46:17 PM

The little bounces still look corrective and therefore it looks like new lows are coming (even if it bounces a little more first).

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 2:38:33 PM

YM long alert! ... here at 12,340. Stop 12,326. Target 12,380

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 2:30:14 PM

CME has a similar pattern to the broader market at the moment and the possibility from here is a continuation lower to a new low for the year (340 Fib target), shown in dark red on the daily chart: Link . If the bulls can turn it around and rally above Monday's high we could see a rally up to the 600 area.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 2:24:16 PM

IWM $68.85 -2.29% ... comes back 3/31 short cover level.

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 2:15:08 PM

It's not looking good for a bounce yet although there are still bullish divergences suggesting caution about the short side. SPX 1331 (for two equal legs down from Monday) is looking like a decent possibility at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 2:14:26 PM

Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $40.20 -4.69% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 2:13:28 PM

Alcoa (AA) $35.13 -2.71% ... probes its 38.2% conventional. Undercutting yesterday's post-earnings low.

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 2:07:50 PM

Using the same March 17th low for the DOW (it was a little higher than the March 10th low), it too has come within a few points of its 38% retracement at 12361.

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 2:06:08 PM

A 38% retracement for NDX is at 1803, also nearly tagged at this afternoon's low.

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 2:01:35 PM

A 38% retracement of the Mar-Apr bounce is at SPX 1337, less than a point from this afternoon's low so far.

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 1:56:57 PM

YM is already into its gap after dropping below the top of it at 12390. Gap closure would be at 12259. Another ouch.

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 1:55:19 PM

The top of the gap for ES on April 1st is 1338-1339 (depending on whether you use the 9:30 open price or the low) so that should be support. If not then gap closure is 1321.75. Ouch.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 1:50:12 PM

TYC's April "Max Pain" Theory value currently tabulated at $42.50 ... $2.50 inc.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2008 1:49:12 PM

Here is McMillan's weekly commentary. The strong upside breakout by the broad stock market on April 1st propelled $SPX (and other indices) to rally to resistance levels. That resistance has proven to be formidable, and the indices have fallen back from there. For $SPX, this resistance is the 1390-1400 area, while for the Dow, it is 12,800. Until that is overcome, there can be no new bull market.

Meanwhile, the budding uptrend in $SPX that began with the March lows, has matured into a series of higher highs and higher lows. As long as this remains intact, the chart of $SPX (FIg. 1) can be given a bullish interpretation. Something will have to give soon, though, for the resistance level and the uptrend are destined to meet shortly, at the current rate.

The equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals (Figs 2 & 3) They will do so as long as the ratios continue to decline on their charts. These are strong, intermediate-term buy signals from indicators with a stellar track record.

All of our indicators had been bullish to one degree or another for a couple of weeks now. However, the first set of sell signals has arisen from breadth -- just this week. Last year, we wouldn't have given much thought to a leading breadth signal, but in recent months, these signals have been strong and accurate. So, this indicates some caution should be observed now.

Finally, the volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) continue to remain subdued. Both are still in downtrends, and that is bullish.

In summary, the indicators are mixed. The equity-only put-call ratios are clearly bullish, while the breadth is clearly negative, and $VIX is in a downtrend (bullish).

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 1:45:41 PM

One of the two (2) of these seems very "overdone" at this point.

GE $32.20 -12.35% ... to the downside

or TYC $44.43 -3.18% ... to the upside.

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 1:42:44 PM

This is about it. We should be bouncing soon, preferably now, if we're to get any bounce at all today. If you're short, suck your stop in tight now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 1:40:35 PM

FXP $80.49 +1.92% ... "all over" the board this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 1:29:52 PM

YM 12,400 ... $/yen 101.00

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 1:28:38 PM

This NDX 5-min chart shows the wave count for the move down from yesterday's high and it calls for one more new low to finish the 5th wave of wave 5, perhaps bottoming out around 1810: Link . A rally above 1821.35 (NQ 1826.50) would be an indication the bottom is probably already in. A drop much below would be potentially much more bearish. But so far the bullish divergences support the wave count calling for an end to this leg down. What becomes of the bounce can't be known yet.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 1:22:33 PM

$/yen's 150-pd SMA on 5-minute interval is currently correlative with Daily Pivot.

Not sure it or YM can get their daily's, but if they do ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 1:20:01 PM

Ym 12,413

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 1:19:52 PM

$/Yen 101.14

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 1:19:30 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 1:04:57 PM

YM long stop alert! ,,, 12,402

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 1:03:44 PM

YM Long raise stop alert! ... to 12,402. YM 12,407

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 1:01:51 PM

C'mon YM ... should at least go 12,422

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 1:01:28 PM

$/Yen 101.01

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 12:54:17 PM

$/Yen 100.95

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 12:53:36 PM

YM Long raise stop alert! to 12,397

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 12:51:22 PM

$/Yen 100.94

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 12:50:57 PM

YM long finger on the button alert! ... with YM 12,403.

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 12:44:59 PM

Jane, you and I were referring to different time frames so in effect, yes, we are in agreement. I'm just thinking a little lower this afternoon (to complete a 5-wave move down from the high near 11:00 AM) to set up the long play.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 12:43:48 PM

$/yen 100.94 ... 5-minute interval chart at correlative 5-pd and 50-pd SMA

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 12:43:06 PM

YM Long raise stop alert! ... to break even ... YM 12,401

Jane Fox : 4/11/2008 12:40:59 PM

Here are you overnight charts. All markets are below their overnight and previous day lows. Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2008 12:39:49 PM

Actually Keene I was thinking you were supporting my statement because you said a new low would finish off a 5-wave mvoe down from yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 12:33:48 PM

YM Long alert! 12,394. Stop goes 12,385. Target 12,428.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2008 12:33:30 PM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Ongoing weakness in the market for previously owned U.S. homes is a signal the key spring sales season is off to a poor start and a reminder that softness in residential housing is still spreading, analysts said Thursday.

"Overall, it illustrates just how much more national this housing downturn is than any other in recent memory," Deutsche Bank wrote in a research note.

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 12:33:09 PM

Sorry Jane, didn't mean to jump on your post which I didn't see until after posting mine.

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 12:32:22 PM

It's too early to be thinking long--I'd like to see a little stair-stepping lower and it might be around the 2:00 PM turn window that we'll see something set up. But it's definitely a good time to lower your stop if short--no higher than the high before 12:00 PM for now. Or draw a downtrend line from yesterday afternoon since a break of that would be an indication a bottom is probably in.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2008 12:30:04 PM

MACD is telling me have bottomed. Notice how the markets are making new daily lows but MACD is not. This is a huge bullish divergence.

Load the truck up - just kidding. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 12:27:35 PM

$/Yen 100.85 -1.06% ... as YM undercuts morning low.

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 12:15:53 PM

Still waiting for a new low. A new low will be a good finish for a 5-wave move down from yesterday so if you're short it would be a good time to pull your stop down close. If you're looking to test the long side look for bullish divergence at a new low to help confirm potential bottoming. We should be due a larger bounce at a minimum after the low and it might even turn into something more. SPX 1340 continues to be a level to watch. If that breaks then 1331 is the next level (where the decline from Monday would be two equal legs down).

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 11:36:53 AM

SanDisk (SNDK) $27.28 +2.09% ... reversing losses ($25.64) with Broadpoint Capital initiating coverage at "neutral"

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 11:34:00 AM

General Electric (GE) $32.48 -11.64% ... downgraded at Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs to "neutral" from respective "outperform" and "buy"

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 11:32:14 AM

Northwest Airlines (NWA) $11.25 +3.49% ...

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 11:32:04 AM

GOOG remains inside what looks like a bear flag since the March low, the bottom of which is near 455. Whether it will get another leg up (and tag the top of its down-channel from November), shown in pink, or break down (dark red) is the question. Based on the choppy pullback from Monday I'm thinking it could get another leg up but will not be able to get above 500. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 11:31:40 AM

Credit Suisse upgrading DAL and NWA today; both to "outperform" from "neutral."

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 11:25:57 AM

Japan MOF Nukaga: Discussed Forex With Treasury's Paulson
"No Comment" On Specifics Of Talks.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 11:22:02 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Note(s): It would take a closing session measure of 64.00% or lower for the NYSE's 5-day NH/NL measure to reverse lower. It would take a closing session measure of 30.00% for the NASDAQ's 5-day NH/NL measure to reverse lower.

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 11:19:24 AM

Even though SPX had the strongest bounce off the low it's only a 3-wave bounce and that makes it a correction. New lows are likely across the board. Then we'll see if SPX 1340 holds.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 11:07:41 AM

RUT.X 697.74 -1.36% ... session low has been 695.06.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 11:06:31 AM

BIX.X 239.24 +0.60% ... just off highs. Session low (234.96) found some buyers at WKLY S1.

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 10:54:33 AM

With banks, brokers, housing and trannies in the green we see SPX getting a bigger bounce off this morning's low. The DOW has barely budged off its low.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 10:53:16 AM


DJ- Delta Air Lines pilots agree to contract revisions, clearing the way for Northwest Airlines and Delta to announce their long anticipated merger, The Detroit News reports.

DAL $10.47 +7.38% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 10:51:22 AM

JBHT $29.84 -0.73% ... has retraced 38.2% of its 01/09/08 low to recent 3/24/08 52-week high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 10:49:50 AM

YRCW $13.50 -0.95% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 10:49:23 AM

XAL.X 25.72 -2.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 10:48:35 AM

TRAN 4,881 +0.27% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 10:48:20 AM

Continental Airlines (CAL) $22.17 +3.79% ... notably strong.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 10:36:04 AM

VIX.X 22.98 +4.54% ...

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 10:35:21 AM

With today's sharp decline the possibility for the market to drop back down towards the 3-month trading range has increased. The DOW is once again dropping back down towards the uptrend lines from Oct 2002/Mar 2003, the first one near 12360. Daily chart: Link

The choppy price pattern of the rally off the March low means we could easily see a turn back up in which case I like an upside target near 12865 in the next week or so. That possibility would be negated when the DOW drops below the 12166 March 31st low. It continues to be a market that requires caution from both sides.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 10:35:13 AM

Swing trade put exit alert! ... for the one (1) Whirlpool WHR April $80 Put (WHR-PP) at the bid of $0.80. WHR $82.89 -2.72% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 10:25:26 AM

Whirlpool (WHR) $82.31 -3.40% ... morning low has found buyers at its 12/31/07 close. Session high is 50% retracement of the 01/16/08 low to more recent 02/06/08 relative high. (see yesterday's MM) Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2008 10:17:06 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. consumer sentiment index fell to 63.2 in April from 69.5 March, according to a Friday report from University of Michigan/Reuters. Sentiment fell to its lowest level since March 1982. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for an April result of 68.8.

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 10:15:49 AM

SPX is working its way lower towards potential support near 1340. So far there's no sign of a tradeable bottom.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 10:15:23 AM


DJ- International Energy Agency makes its biggest cut to world oil demand growth in seven years, underlining the extent to which weaker U.S. and European growth prospects are eroding crude consumption in the world's wealthiest nations.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2008 10:11:47 AM

VIX is now making new daily highs but this is a very choppy move and hard to trade.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 10:10:17 AM


DJ- American Airlines cancels 595 flights as the company works to complete inspections of its MD-80 fleet. AMR adds that 226 of its 300 MD-80s were back in service.

AMR $9.66 -2.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 10:08:54 AM


DJ- Carrier files for protection under Chapter 11 after an 'unexpected attempt' by its principal credit card processor to substantially increase a 'holdback' of customer receipts threatened to severely impact Frontier's liquidity.

FRNT $0.43 -72.61% ... so long old friend.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 10:07:38 AM


DJ- Overall import prices rise 2.8% last month, after increasing 0.2% in February. Wall Street expected a 2.1% climb. Excluding petroleum, which jumps 9.1%, import prices gain 1.1%, the largest one-month increase on record.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 10:01:50 AM

FXP Fact Sheet Link ... is a 200% leverage security.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2008 9:58:15 AM

Swing trade long alert! ... for one 1/4 position in the ProShares UltraShort Xinhua China 25 (FXP) at the offer of $78.66 with a LIMIT of $78.80. Stop goe 74.75. Target $89.00

Jane Fox : 4/11/2008 9:55:51 AM

VIX is not telling me a thing this morning - it is just moving sideways.

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 9:48:39 AM

NDX is currently back down to the parallel up-channel that supported price at the Wednesday low. Wouldn't it be something if today was the head fake day that sets a big bear trap and we get a rally from here? It's not something I expect at this point but I sure don't discount the possibility in this market. Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2008 9:40:04 AM

AD line is a very bearish -1844 but the markets are very oversold so we should bounce before we can continue to the downside with follow through.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2008 9:27:56 AM

Here is the way the daily SPX looked at the close yesterday. Futures are at 1346 so they will open very near yesterday's lows which were 1350. Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2008 9:25:24 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) - U.S. stock futures dropped on Friday as General Electric's quarterly earnings miss and slashed earnings forecast cast gloom around earnings season.

Futures that were stronger before the GE results were sharply lower about an hour before the open. S&P 500 futures fell 14.6 points to 1,348.20 and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 19.5 points to 1,839.25. Dow industrial futures fell 141 points.

GE reported a surprise 6% drop in first-quarter earnings and cut its 2008 outlook, blaming its financial services business. GE blamed much, but not all, of the below-forecast results on an inability to complete asset sales as well as higher mark-to-market losses.

Keene Little : 4/11/2008 9:25:22 AM

Well I guess we've got our answer as to which way this market is going to head. With equity futures down hard and below yesterday's low, that makes the price pattern bearish. There's always the potential for some intervention/opex shenanigans (which would really be a whipsaw event) but right now I'd say all bullish bets are off.

One last chance for SPX would be the bottom of a parallel up-channel drawn off the trend line along the highs since March 24th, currently near 1339. Before yesterday's rally I had been thinking SPX will drop down to around 1340 (some Fibs there) so that remains potential support. 60-min chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/11/2008 9:18:55 AM

I am taking a day off today, but I wanted to sign in for a moment. Clearly, the GE news has hit markets hard, although it merely confirms what we've been hearing for a while: there's been a sudden, sharp slowdown in the economy. Fed Chairman Bernanke has admitted it, and others have, too.

Although as I pointed out in my Wrap last night, the SPX's 15-minute chart projected a decline to 1346.14-1349.96, I somewhat discounted the end-of-day action that had set that potential downside target since the dip was immediately bought. I guess I shouldn't have discounted it at all, even "somewhat." SPX futures are currently a little more than 14 points below fair value, which would send the SPX down to test that zone. Be aware that this is also potential support, joined by two daily lows this week in the 1350-ish zone, one a little under and one a little over. Remember that potential Keltner support that's a little lower than this week's lows, watching for sustained new lows and not just a soon-reversed pop lower as a sign that things are going south. If the support doesn't hold and new lows are sustained, then you might watch for the possibility that the 30-sma will be tested, but be careful of forming too-strong opinions about direction too soon this morning.

Also, as you're planning your trades, remember that University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number due at 9:55 am ET.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2008 9:11:36 AM

You may think this drop was due to the news out at 8:30 but it started way before the news hit the wires. This drop started at 6:50EDT.

Not pretty heh? Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2008 9:03:50 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- American Airlines said 226 of its 300 MD80 planes were in service early Friday morning, with the carrier planning to operate about 50% of its MD80 schedule Friday morning.

The company said it'll be able to operate about 60% of its flights by 4 p.m. Central. There were 595 MD80 flight cancellations in place on Friday.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2008 9:02:56 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A surge in prices for imported petroleum pushed the prices of goods imported into the U.S. up by 2.8% in March, the most since November 2007, the Labor Department reported Friday. Imported petroleum prices jumped by 9.1% in March, their biggest increase since rising 12.4% in November 2007. The price of imported natural gas also surged, by 7.7% in March, after rising 9.9% in February. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting import prices to rise by 2.2% in March.

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