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Keene Little : 4/14/2008 11:10:09 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Similar to the SPX charts I posted during the day on Monday, the DOW's daily and 60-min charts have a very similar pattern. Whether it means anything or not I noticed the DOW found support on Monday at the bottom of a parallel channel for price action since the March 24th high (60-min chart): Link

If the DOW drops much below the March 31st low near 12166 it will look more bearish although not necessarily immediately so (as depicted in dark red). Eventually the DOW could work its way lower to the bottom of its trading range near 11800 before the end of the month. But if it's able to rally from here then Fibs and trend lines in the 12800-12900 area by the end of this week or early next make for a good upside target.

While either the rally or the decline could keep on going, the larger price pattern has me thinking we're not ready for any longer term trending moves yet. The daily chart shows how we could see choppy price action well into May: Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/14/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 4:39:42 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/14/2008 4:11:28 PM

Tomorrow we have:

8:30a.m. Mar Producer Price Index. Expected: +0.5%. Previous: +0.3%.

8:30a.m. Mar PPI, Ex-Food And Energy. Expected: +0.2%. Previous: +0.5%.

8:30a.m. Apr NY Fed Manufacturing Index. Expected: -17.5. Previous: -22.23.

9:00a.m. Feb Treasury International Capital Flows. Previous: $47.2B.

1:00p.m. Apr NAHB Housing Market Index. Previous: 20.

Jane Fox : 4/14/2008 4:05:49 PM

Not many days when the intraday range is bracketed by the overnight range. Link

Jane Fox : 4/14/2008 4:04:39 PM

This is going to be one of those days that we call a throw-away day. It does not have much to tell us about support, resistance or which way we can expect that market to move. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 4:02:08 PM

Swing trade call option place order alert! ... Place a GTC order to sell the one (1) Petroleo Brasileiro PBR April $125 Call (PMJ-DE) ... for $7.00.

Keene Little : 4/14/2008 4:01:26 PM

Another plus for stocks (although not yet) is the selling in bonds today. That money could rotate into stocks. We've seen several times in the past where a down Thursday, Friday and/or Monday heading into opex week gets reversed and sets the bear trap. I still think that's a possibility here.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 4:01:25 PM

The setup this afternoon suggests that the OEX is going to have to maintain values above 615.04, at least on 30-minute closes, before it looks any better, even on the shortest-term status. For the SPX, that's about 1332.67.

Keene Little : 4/14/2008 3:50:48 PM

The SPX 30-min chart is also showing a big bullish divergence at this afternoon's low as compared to this morning's low.

Keene Little : 4/14/2008 3:49:38 PM

The banks (BIX) are dropping a little lower this afternoon and at a low of 222.69 the index is inching closer to the Fib projection at 222.12 for two equal legs down from the March high. It's also showing bullish divergence at this afternoon's low compared to this morning's low.

Be careful if you're short since a rally in the banks could ignite a broader market rally (since the reason the market is depressed today is because of fear of the banks' earnings this week). A rally will have the pundits out saying all the bad news is priced in. To which I say that's a bunch of donkey dust but hope-filled rallies will always happen.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 3:49:17 PM

PBR $121.35 +7.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 3:48:56 PM

Petroleo Brasileiro: More Data Needed For Estimate On New Field

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 3:46:28 PM

Into the close ...

TSO $26.09 -2.97%
TOL $21.79 -3.02%
PM/MO $47.79 -1.11%/$21.53 +0.75%
PBR $121.37 +7.54%
SWC $16.45 -3.06%
YRCW $13.41 +0.67%
BOOM $43.35 +0.16%

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 3:41:29 PM

We often expect to see a small-range day after a large-range day, so today shouldn't be a big surprise, but what comes after that small-range day can be more difficult to predict. I like writing Wraps on days when we've had a big-range day because it's easy enough to trot out that "small range days tend to follow big range days" truism, but if I were writing tonight's Wrap, I'd have difficulty predicting what comes next. The small-range day can be a reversal signal and the closer to a doji it is (open and close equal), the more persuasive of a signal it can be, but it's only a potential signal. The so-called oversold conditions can be worked off by a sideways move rather than a reversal. If sentiment is bad enough or the PPI tomorrow morning is bad enough or one of the reporting companies tomorrow morning reports something scary enough, the potential for reversal could be wiped away by the cash open.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 3:30:39 PM

If the SPX were to end the day near its current level, it will be ending the day with a small-bodied candle at the bottom of a decline. That small-bodied candle will be forming near the bottom but not at the bottom of a consolidation zone that it traded in from late January until early March. There's the potential, then, that the SPX bulls are attempting to steady the SPX here, although there's certainly no proof that they'll be successful. This possible attempt at steadying is occurring near the daily 30-sma, another of those averages that was once important but which the SPX has chopped across frequently in the last few months. This is all, of course, taking place just above the weekly 200-ema, now at 1322.89, and that average has been important, supporting the SPX on weekly closes all this year except for some very bad weeks in early March.

I've looked at all kinds of charts across all kinds of time frames, and there's just not any more information that that. We can all point to some signs that suggest a possible bounce attempt next and some that say markets are more likely to roll down. It's still all mixed up.

Keene Little : 4/14/2008 3:15:37 PM

Last week the semiconductors did a head-fake break out of the sideways triangle pattern but has since fallen back down. Nice bull trap. The price pattern since the January low has now taken on more of a bear flag appearance, the bottom of which is currently near 28.50. This is also where the top of its broken down-channel from last year's high is located (perhaps a bullish retest coming up?): Link

I have the bearish key level at the February low of 27.21 but a break below the March 31st low at 28.41 would be a heads up that we've got more than just a pullback in progress. But if the bulls can hold the semis above 28.50 there remains the potential to drive this index back up towards some upside targets near 32 and 34.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 3:04:22 PM

The tenor of equity trading sometimes changes, as I've often mentioned, when the bond market closes. In order for there to be a change in tenor today, all that would need to happen would be a movement one direction or the other because the tenor so far has been trendless.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 2:55:25 PM

The OEX has potential support on 15-minute closes that ranges down to 611.45, but equity bulls wish that support near 612.17 would hold on this 15-minute close. That would require a bounce in the next few minutes, of course.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 2:54:06 PM

The SPX has potential support on 15-minute closes at 1328.21. Potential resistance now converges with the 9-ema, now at about 1330.75 on 15-minute closes.

Keene Little : 4/14/2008 2:47:43 PM

Oil (USO) looks like it should head a little higher before potentially topping out for a while. Whether it heads higher from here or after a little more consolidation first is the question. I think it would look better (from an EW perspective) if it consolidates for another few days (maybe just another small pullback) before heading up. An upside target for a top could be in the 92-94 range. It could coincide with a high for the euro which I showed earlier (1:11 PM). Daily chart: Link

Keene Little : 4/14/2008 2:29:15 PM

Panning out slightly from the SPX 60-min chart I posted last night, this 120-min chart shows the price moves since March 17th: Link . It's getting a little busy with all the potentially important trend lines and Fib projections but I want to focus on a couple of levels that are most important for the short term.

To the downside, if the market drops below today's low, we'll have SPX 1323 for the 4/1 gap close and then the March 28th low near 1312. Just below that is a Fib projection just below 1309 where the 2nd leg down in the decline from last week's high would equal 162% of the 1st leg down. At that same 1309 level is the bottom of a parallel up-channel for price action since the March 17th low.

To the upside the bulls can't claim any kind of victory until the April 7th high near 1387 is taken back. But a rally above the bounce high near 1368 on April 10th would be a heads up as it would leave a 3-wave decline from April 7th. Hence the key level symbol at that level. Right now it's a very undecided market. Actually that's been true since the January low.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 2:23:46 PM

The SPX has traded in a 8.81-point range today. What was once a good range for the day, one that would have made many a day trader happy, now seems like a tight range. If course, this chop never would have made a day trader happy. A scalper maybe, but not even a day trader.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 2:15:23 PM

The SPX and OEX aren't the only things chopping around. The A/D line has been, too, in quite a narrow range. It's now dropping back toward Keltner support that it tested earlier today: twice. That support is now near -400 on 15-minute closes, but it's joined by a band of potential support lines, with those stretching from -290 down to -535. The A/D line is currently -213, still above the bullish/bearish benchmark.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 2:08:54 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 2:07:53 PM

The OEX has potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes ranging down to 611.97. That support is a little firmer than it was earlier, but not firm enough that I can say definitely that it's going to hold.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 2:06:25 PM

The SPX has obviously lost the support of its 15-minute 9-ema. It's now still doing the chopping around I expected it be doing, but not exactly where I expected it to chop. I thought we'd have a bit longer below the 1332-1334 level before breaking above it, and then a bit more chopping between 1332 or 34 and 1336. The SPX is doing it in a bit more disorganized of a pattern than I expected, but why I expected any kind of organization is beyond me! There's potential Keltner support being tested now, near 1330. If that fails on 15-minute closes, next potential support is 1328.61 on 15-minute closes.

Jane Fox : 4/14/2008 1:59:16 PM

Here are your overnight charts and as you can see only the Russell 2000 futures is above its overnight highs. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 1:31:54 PM

The SPX has not only come back to test its 15-minute 9-ema (1:07:53 post), but it also pierced that moving average. It's at about 1332.75 currently with the SPX at 1332.84 as I type. It looks as if it will end the 15-minute period at that moving average.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 1:21:41 PM

The 23.6% retracement of the decline off Thursday's high into today's low for the SPX is at about 1336.16. The SPX has already approached it and pulled back. The 30-minute chart shows that potential Fib resistance joined by Keltner resistance on 30-minute closes from 1335.53-1337.56. I wouldn't be surprised to see this resistance eventually bested, but I would certainly be careful at each Fib retracement level now, watching out for rollover potential. The 38.2% level is at approximately (because it's a snapped bracket and not a calculated number) 1342.11 and the 50% is at about 1346.92.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 1:17:57 PM

Remember my 11:43:57 post about the Fib bracket fitted to Thursday's high and the then-current low? Turns out those were the lows. Now, for the OEX, a 23.6% retracement of the OEX's decline off Thursday's high into today's lows is at about 616.26. I would assume that could be strong resistance, especially as it coincides with potential resistance on the 30-minute closes from 616.08-616.53.

Keene Little : 4/14/2008 1:11:18 PM

If you're a currency trader you might want to take a look at the opportunity to short the euro soon. The price pattern since March looks like a rising wedge with confirming bearish divergence at the new highs. The pattern would look best with a little more rally and possibly a little throw-over above the top of the pattern before collapsing back down. Once this breaks down it could be a relatively swift decline: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 1:07:53 PM

The SPX didn't need as long as I expected to get through that resistance. In fact, it took only 30 minutes to complete this last push although it has been some time since I first started warning that it might take a few hours. The SPX has now closed a 15-minute period well above the resistance now near 1332.50. I would not be surprised to see it dip back down to retest the rising 15-minute 9-ema, now at about 1332.50, at some point, but whether that's immediately or after a test of next resistance near 1339.24, I'm not sure.

Keene Little : 4/14/2008 12:57:47 PM

We've got a clear break of the downtrends with new daily highs. Needless to say, today's low is now very important and being long against the low is the right place to be. Upside potential for SPX is to the downtrend line from October, currently near 1410 (maybe by Friday?).

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 12:56:53 PM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) $193.68 +2.90% ... retraces 80.9% of 10/15/07 to 1/23/08 decline.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 12:53:36 PM

Swing trade bearish long stop alert! ... for the FXP $82.90

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 12:35:11 PM

Should CNBC pick up the story on PBR ... Monthly R2 is $131.06. QTRLY R2 $142.22.

Keene Little : 4/14/2008 12:33:31 PM

Banks are down today, thanks to Wachovia and larger concerns about what the banks might report this week. BIX is now close to where the drop from the March high will have two equal legs down (at 222.12 and today's low is so far 223.37). If there's a more bullish pattern in play this would be a good place for bulls to step in. Otherwise a continuation lower to the bottom of a potential descending wedge pattern, currently near 212.50, could be in play here. Daily chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 12:33:35 PM

The SPX is now above its 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1330.71. It's moving up into the resistance zone that I've been mentioning, with that at 1332-1334 on 15-minute closes. A typical thing to have happen now is for the SPX to spend a little time chopping around until it begins sustaining 15-minute closes above the 9-ema, now at 1330.88. In a typical case, while doing this, it might actually pierce that resistance, but, barring a strong surge that catches shorts off guard, it doesn't usually immediately sustain closes above resistance that looks this strong. Nothing about these markets is usual or typical, but that's how it usually works out. Of course, the other alternative is that this attempt will be knocked sharply back and prices will trend lower again, but I'm operating under the possible "short-term low" theory.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 12:30:41 PM

Patroleo Brasileiro (PBR) (update) ... DJ- Shares in Brazil's state-run oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), or Petrobras, surged Monday on a report about a gigantic new discovery in Brazil's ultradeep pre-salt oil area.

Petrobras soared 6.05% to 83.30 reals ($49.52) at 1603 GMT Sao Paulo.

The Pao de Acucar field could contain up to five times as much oil reserves as the nearby Tupi field, the Estado news agency said, citing Haroldo Lima, the head of Brazil's National Petroleum Agency, or ANP.

Petrobras in November said Tupi could contain up to 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent, or BOE.

Preliminary reports from Petrobras and its partners in the field said Pao de Acucar could contain up to 33 billion BOE, Lima is quoted as saying on Estado.

"If this were to be confirmed, its would be the biggest discovery ever made in the world," Lima is quoted as saying.

A press official for Lima told Dow Jones Newswires that estimates for the Pao de Acucar field aren't official and that Lima was only referring to reports.

Credit Suisse analyst Emerson Leite in January reportedly said that the fields of Pao de Acucar and Carioca in the pre-salt area could have up to 24 billion BOE in reserves.

A Petrobras press official had no comment on the reports.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 12:22:16 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/14/2008 12:15:20 PM

I've redrawn the parallel down-channel for the decline in SPX from Friday morning (using this morning's high) and it's attempting to break it again near 1330. Another drop to the bottom of it would have SPX dropping to 1323 (or lower as time progresses today). Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 12:08:31 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1330.33; the OEX's, 612.81.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 12:06:56 PM

Swing trade bullish call cancel target alert! ... With PBR $120 +6.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 12:06:12 PM

Reuters- Brazil ANP Says Carioca Find May Have $33 Billion BOE ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 12:02:17 PM

Petroleo Brasileiro: Surges On Report Of Gigantic Oil Discovery

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 12:01:44 PM

Petroleo Brasileiro: Brazil Oil Agency Don't Confirm Discovery Report

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 12:00:43 PM

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) $118.96 +5.52% ... reverses losses. On volume.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 11:52:23 AM

The OEX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 612.91. So far, the OEX has not been able to maintain 15-minute closes above that average, so the tenor has not changed yet, but keep watching for the possibility as some other signs point to a possible (but not proven) short-term low. Further potential resistance on 15-minute closes spans a zone from 614.51-615.89. It isn't grouped quite as tightly and so doesn't look quite as strong as the analogous resistance on the SPX's chart. However, I expect that the top of that zone might still be strong resistance on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 11:49:57 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1330.40. So far, the SPX still has not been able to maintain 15-minute closes above that moving average. Above that, further potentially strong resistance gathers just over and just under 1333.80.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 11:43:57 AM

FWIW (and that's very little except as a warning), a Fib bracket anchored to Thursday's high and today's current low fits quite nicely with the consolidation zones that were produced along the way. When that happens, I start watching for signs that a short-term bottom has been reached or closely approached, but I certainly don't count it as proof that one has been.

Keene Little : 4/14/2008 11:38:19 AM

SPX 1327 is near the high on March 31st, the high before the big gap up and strong rally on April 1st. That defines the breakout level so that remains potential support. But if it breaks then certainly gap closure just under 1323 would be next and potentially down to the March 31st low near 1312.

Keene Little : 4/14/2008 11:35:46 AM

It looks like the bulls blinked.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 11:31:29 AM

As I suspected (10:54:12 post), that SPX overhead resistance is so strong that the SPX hasn't even been able to rise up and test it. That resistance is now about 1334.50-1336 on 15-minute closes. I suspected earlier that, even if the underlying sentiment became less bearish, the SPX would need either a surge higher or else some time, perhaps hours, spent chopping sideways before it could soften that resistance.

As I type, that's still my impression. Of course, if sentiment hasn't really begun to change, steeper declines that turn the 15-minute 9-ema lower again are possible. For now, there's potential support at about 1326.90 on 15-minute closes, first potential resistance at the 15-minute 9-ema now at 1331.40.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 11:29:17 AM

VIX.X 24.17 +3.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 11:29:04 AM

Swing trade covered call target alert! ... with TOL $21.89 -2.58% .... TEP-ET $0.15 x $0.20.

Keene Little : 4/14/2008 11:20:46 AM

Both sides are waiting for the other to blink first. A break of the lows near 10:30 AM could usher in more selling (new daily lows) so the bulls need to hold it here.

Jane Fox : 4/14/2008 11:03:07 AM

Russell 2000 futures are now breaking above their overnight highs.

Jane Fox : 4/14/2008 10:59:54 AM

All markets are still within their overnight ranges. This is has not been a good session for trading, at least on the lower timeframes like the 233Tick. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 10:59:15 AM

Table Of Data On Inventories From Commerce at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 10:54:12 AM

The SPX ended the just-concluded 15-minute period at its 15-minute 9-ema. It hasn't broken free of that potential resistance yet, but it's still trying. Potentially strong resistance gathers overhead, though, if it makes above the 15-minute 9-ema. That further and potentially strong resistance is at 1335.50-1338.70 currently. It looks so strong right now that I'm not even sure the SPX can rise up to test it, even if the underlying sentiment begins to change, unless there's a true surge that breaks the SPX higher. Instead, it might need to do some more sideways chopping. That's just a subjective take, but do be aware of that potentially strong resistance. If the SPX begins producing 15-minute closes above the 15-minute 9-ema now at about 1332.2, that would be an early and tentative sign of a change in tenor, but it's still got some work to do before it can charge much higher.

Keene Little : 4/14/2008 10:46:43 AM

Techs and small caps could be leading the way to the upside again--NDX and RUT are the first to make new daily highs. SPX is attempting to break out of its tight down-channel.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 10:44:25 AM

Swing trade bearish long raise stop alert! ... for the 1/4 position in the ProShares UltraShort Xinhua China 25 (FXP) to $82.90. (from $82.20).

FXP $83.33 +2.08% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 10:39:10 AM

The TRAN has just hit a new high for the day.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 10:34:59 AM

The A/D line still maintains that Keltner support now near -453 on 15-minute closes. See the chart linked to my 10:06:16 post to see the support I'm referencing. The A/D line is currently -279.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 10:33:55 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1332.22; the OEX's, 613.97.

Keene Little : 4/14/2008 10:27:27 AM

SPX remains in a very tight down-channel since Friday morning so the trend is clearly down until it breaks (a move to a new daily high today would confirm a break). 10-min chart: Link

A continuation lower could have SPX heading down to close the April 1st gap (1322.72).

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 10:26:47 AM

KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) 76.31 -3.30% ... trades 1/18/08 low.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 10:24:59 AM

VIX.X 24.12 +2.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 10:24:45 AM

Swing trade covered put buy back alert! ... Place an order to buy back the one (1) Toll Bros. TOL May $27.50 Call (TEP-ET) for a LIMIT price of $0.20.

TOL $21.98 -2.18% ... TEP-ET $0.15 x $0.25.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 10:23:19 AM

While the Dow, SPX and OEX linger near their day's lows, the TRAN is not so far off its day's high and is positive for the day. That's not usually a divergence that continues, but will the others bring the TRAN down or the will the TRAN haul the others up? Just be aware there's a divergence.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 10:20:43 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 10:20:13 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1332.84; the OEX's, 614.28. Both held as resistance on the 15-minute period that's just concluded. If the SPX should make it above that resistance, it will soon slam into what appears to be stronger resistance from about 1336.50-1338.40. It looks as if either a strong surge or else an hours-long period of bouncing around will be needed to break up that resistance, but let's see.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 10:17:54 AM

A/D line support, now at about -455, held again on that 15-minute close, but so did the resistance, now at about -98. The A/D line is currently -331.

Jane Fox : 4/14/2008 10:16:40 AM

SPX bulls were really hoping Friday's lows will hold and so far they have but the bulls are hanging on my their fingernails. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 10:12:08 AM

It's too early in this 15-minute period to draw any conclusions, but both the SPX and OEX zoomed up to their 15-minute 9-ema's during this period and were knocked right back. So far at least, those are still holding as resistance but we don't know how this 15-minute period will end. No change in tenor yet, though. Counter that with the TRAN's slightly higher value, the A/D line's maintaining of support, and a bunch of other mixed signals and . . . you have a bunch of mixed signals.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 10:10:55 AM

Swing trade bullish stop alert! ... for the 1/4 position in shares of CME Group (CME) $480 -1.90% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 10:09:51 AM

TRIN is 1.03. Although currently rising, it's still in a neutral zone.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 10:06:16 AM

Want to see what I'm seeing the A/D Keltner chart? Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 9:58:49 AM

SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1334.24; the OEX's, 615.09.

Jane Fox : 4/14/2008 9:56:29 AM

You can just feel the Gold bulls getting ready for the charge. Their heads are down, they are snorting and they are pawing the ground. DO NOT be short Gold here. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 9:53:55 AM

Everything still looks very tentative to me, including the A/D support. It's still holding, but the A/D line certainly isn't able to capitalize on that support and maintain any gains above it yet.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 9:52:01 AM

Currently 100.93, the USDJPY has been climbing since about 8:00 am ET from its overnight low of 100.28. It's climbing just underneath potentially strong resistance from 101.03-101.25. Until it breaks above that resistance and sustains values above the resistance, it's just chopping around.

Keene Little : 4/14/2008 9:51:28 AM

GOOG has now dropped down to the bottom of its bear flag pattern near 453 so today will provide some clues about this stock. Like the broader market this is an important day in helping determine whether or not the bulls have some life left in them. For GOOG there remains the potential for one more bounce leg within the bear flag pattern (pink) but it will need to hold here: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 9:49:43 AM

The TRAN isn't really dropping this 15-minute period. Instead, it's going sideways. There's not much information there except that it's not corroborating weakness in the other indices.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 9:48:33 AM

As noted in my (revised from original) 9:41 post, I'm not surprised to see the A/D line dipping back to potential support now at about -470 on 15-minute closes. The A/D line is now -421. So far, support is still holding, as it did into that just-completed 15-minute close, but as I noted in that post, it's still early in the day. If the A/D line loses this potential support, next potential support is from -966 down to -1276.

Jane Fox : 4/14/2008 9:43:31 AM

AD line did make a low of -466 (according to Tradestation), improved to -90 and is now falling again.

Jane Fox : 4/14/2008 9:42:15 AM

AD line is a neutral -90.

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 9:41:15 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: As I've mentioned before, Jane and I are not in competition with the A/D line studies. We look at different measures using different tools, and we hope our two outlooks give you perspective. Here's what the Keltner charts show. Despite the negative number (currently -448), the A/D line opened in and stays in the upper or bullish half of the 15-minute nested Keltner charts. It has potential support at about -460 on 15-minute closes and potential resistance at about -15 on 15-minute closes. Which will win out--the support or resistance--is as yet unknown as it's just too early to tell on a Monday morning of opex week, but the picture so far isn't as bleak as the markets feel. As I've been typing, it's risen to -85, and if it can maintain that support in the upper or bullish half of the nested Keltner channels, there's a chance that equities can maintain support, too. I would not be surprised to see that support tested once more, but that's not a given.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2008 9:32:17 AM

Swing trade bearish long raise stop alert! ... for the 1/4 position in the ProShares UltraShort Xinhua China 25 (FXP) to $82.20.

FXP $82.79 +1.39% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/14/2008 9:30:10 AM

Futures are slightly below fair value this morning, so I'm looking at the 30-minute Keltner charts to see where support might lie, with the emphasis on "might." For the SPX, that's at 1328.06 on 30-minute closes, and the OEX, 614.20 on 30-minute closes. Those numbers will turn down slightly if the opening is lower. Watch for potential support in that area. Obviously, the OEX is going to be impacted by GE more than the SPX and it approached closer to its potential target and support on that 30-minute chart.

Since late Thursday afternoon, the SPX has been pushed back on each test of its 15-minute 9-ema, closing beneath it on 15-minute closes. Traders can watch this average as a guage of the short-term tenor as long as they remember that 15-minute closes above it (especially if during the first hour of trading) are nothing more than first tentative signs that the tenor might be changing. Those closes wouldn't be proof, but just a warning to get what-if plans prepared. That 15-minute 9-ema is at 1335.18 for the SPX, with a lot of further potential resistance converging over that. It's 615.69 for the OEX.

Keene Little : 4/14/2008 9:27:37 AM

Equity futures remained depressed during the overnight session but have climbed sharply from the 8:30 AM low with ES up about 8 points from the low. Whether that will hold after the cash market opens is the bigger question (it's certainly what the bulls need right now).

Jane Fox : 4/14/2008 9:25:29 AM

Just as the news from GE weighed the overnight markets down Friday, the news from Wachovia is weighing heavy on the markets this morning. However, the markets have all at least returned to their previous day ranges and the Russell 2000 futures is breaking to a new overnight high as I type. Link

Jane Fox : 4/14/2008 9:19:23 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- U.S. retail sales took a surprising turn upward during March, a promising sign for the economy given the punishment consumers have absorbed.

Retail sales increased by 0.2%, the Commerce Department said Monday. Sales went down a revised 0.4% in February. Sales that month were originally seen 0.6% lower.

Excluding sales of gasoline stations, which were helped by high energy prices, retail sales didn't budge in March.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires estimated a 0.1% decrease in overall March retail sales. The actual, 0.2% increase could be seen as bright news, considering many analysts argue the U.S. has gone into recession, which is defined as two straight quarters of economic decline. The sales report is a key indicator of U.S. consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up about 70% of gross domestic product, the broad measure of economic activity in the U.S. The Commerce Department next week releases its first estimate of first-quarter GDP, which will confirm whether the economy fell and began what could turn into recession.

GDP rose in the fourth quarter of 2007, but the crawling 0.6% increase was far below the galloping 4.9% pace in the third quarter. The economy is fighting higher food prices, surging energy costs, job losses, and a credit crunch. Financial market turmoil has sent stock prices down and the housing slump lowered the values of homes

Jane Fox : 4/14/2008 9:06:24 AM

DAtelin WSJ - Blockbuster Inc. said it has offered to acquire Circuit City Stores Inc. for more than $1 billion, an aggressive move to expand beyond its traditional movie-rental business.

Blockbuster said it made the offer in a Feb. 17 letter to Circuit City Chief Executive Philip Schoonover, but decided to go public with the offer Monday after Circuit City did not provide access to its books.

Blockbuster, which is based in Dallas, said it has offered to pay at least $6 a share in cash for Circuit City, which is a 54% premium to Friday's closing price.

The offer comes at a difficult time for Circuit City. The Richmond, Va.-based retailer, which operates about 682 stores in the U.S. and more than 700 outlets in Canada, has struggled with slack sales amid a prolonged turnaround effort. Its shares have slumped 80% in the past year and one of its investors has launched a proxy fight to remove Mr. Schoonover.

Jane Fox : 4/14/2008 9:05:03 AM

Dateline WSJ -

Wachovia Corp. said it will raise $7 billion in capital through stock sales and cut its dividend by 41%, a consequence of its ill-timed move into the mortgage industry, as it swung to a first-quarter net loss caused by $2 billion in "market-disruption" losses and sinking credit quality.

The common- and preferred-stock sales are "in response to unprecedented economic conditions," said Chairman and Chief Executive Ken Thompson. He added the company is "extremely pleased with the strong expressions of interest we've already received regarding these issuances, which demonstrate the confidence of investors in our fundamental strengths and long-term outlook."

Terms weren't disclosed in a press release, but The Wall Street Journal reported that Wachovia was expected to sell shares for $23 to $24 apiece, a more than 15% discount to Friday's closing price of $27.81. Wachovia shares fell 12%, to $24.48, in premarket trading Monday.

Jane Fox : 4/14/2008 9:03:26 AM

Dateline WSJ - Cash-strapped mortgage lender Fremont General, acceding to regulators' demands, has reached a deal to sell its investment and loan bank to a California industrial bank to be formed by CapitalSource.

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