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Keene Little : 4/16/2008 11:22:09 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

The market rallied when it needed to (to prevent a break of some key downside levels that would have turned the price patterns more immediately bearish) so now we'll need to see some follow through. We could get a pullback to correct Wednesday's rally but for obvious reasons the bulls do not want to see Tuesday's lows get taken out now. These 120-min charts show the key levels and some trend lines and Fib projections to watch for possible resistance if the rally continues:
SPX: Link
DOW: Link
NDX: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:30:29 PM

RUT.X NH/NL 51:39 . Today's 51 NH is most since 12/26/08 62:21

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:27:28 PM

SPX NH/NL 21:6 . Today's 21 NH for the SPX is most since 01/08/08 22:141

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:21:53 PM

Sector Bell Curve from my 04/06/2008 "The Tractor Tire And The Bottom" Link

Sector Bell Curve from 04/07/2008 to tonight Link

See NH/NL review in last night's MM Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/16/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 9:58:41 PM

Wednesday's 52-week High/Low Summary for Wednesday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 9:53:44 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

Today's 136 NH at the big board is most since 11/06/07 151:236.

Some debate on this evening's CNBC program "Fast Money." I too looked at a DJNewswire of NYSE New Highs intra-day and the list was notably longer that last few months. Most names were either oil/gas/oil service, or steel (includes ETFs).

Will check Dorsey's sector break downs.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 5:12:13 PM

Molson Coors (TAP) $54.21 -0.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 5:11:16 PM

Crown Holdings (CCK) $25.87 +3.27% ... ticks higher at $26.15 on headline numbers.

Volume rather heavy today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 5:08:09 PM

Live- Titanium Metals Op Chief Resigns ... TIE $16.70 +9.43% ... $16.85 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 5:04:50 PM

Currencies just before their daily settlement Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 5:03:26 PM

Euro at record close vs. $ ... 1.5946

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:51:02 PM

Live- Meritage Homes To Offer Up To 4M Shares

MTH $22.48 +7.61% ... $21.72 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:39:17 PM

DJ Live - Chile Stocks Close Higher On Lower Inflation Expectations

Chile's benchmark Ipsa stock index closed higher Wednesday on expectations inflation will fall in coming months and that the central bank will cut interest rates later in the year. The 40-share blue-chip Ipsa index ended at 3,027.10, up 1.0% from Tuesday's close. It's the first time this year the Ipsa surged past the 3,000-point mark. Volume jumped to 92.41 billion pesos ($202.5 million) from CLP57.15 billion the previous session. Central bank president Jose de Gregorio's recent comments that the central bank can't rule out a rate cut in the near term continues to boost investor sentiment, traders said. The lower inflation and interest-rate outlook again fueled strong gains in the retail sector, as falling interest rates will likely spark consumer spending, they added. Retail holding company Cencosud (CENCOSUD.SN) surged 3.8% to CLP1,929.90 while grocer D&S climbed 4.2% to CLP189.00. Department store Ripley (RIPLEY.SN) jumped 6.9% to CLP433.00. Other gainers included utility holding Enersis (ENI), up 2.9% to CLP177.49 in heavy trading, and Banco Santander Chile (SAN), up 2.1% to CLP23.49. Stocks will likely extend their gains in coming sessions, especially if other regional markets, including the U.S. and Brazil, continue to climb, analysts said. Local stocks usually take trading cues from both of these markets. On the local fixed-income market, yields on Chilean central bank bonds closed higher amid bond purchases said to come from managers of private pension funds, traders said. The yield on inflation-indexed five-year BCUs ended at 2.30%, up from 2.22% Tuesday, while the yield on 10-year BCUs closed at 2.73%, up from 2.70% Tuesday. The peso, meanwhile, ended practically unchanged against the dollar Wednesday after losing ground late in the session following the announcement of the central bank's daily intervention. The currency ended trading at CLP456.30 to the dollar, compared with CLP456.40 at Tuesday's close, after trading in a range of CLP455.00-CLP457.30.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:37:15 PM

IBM: Sees f708 EPS At Least $8.50, Up from Earlier $8.25 View

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:36:36 PM

LookSmart Expands Pay-Per-Click Network To UK, Australia ... LOOK $3.72 +1.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:29:38 PM

Avocent (AVCT ... 1Q Intl Sales Up 12.5%

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:28:46 PM

Avocent (AVCT) $15.73 +5.28% ... $15.79 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:24:15 PM

Actel (ACTL) $15.75 +5.70% ... $15.21 x $16.31 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:23:08 PM

Lattice Semi (LSCC) $3.16 +7.84% ... $3.42 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:21:49 PM

Altera Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:21:27 PM

Xilinx (XLNX) $23.85 +3.87% ... $24.20 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:20:59 PM

Altera (ALTR) $19.20 +6.01% ... jumps to $20.10 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:20:35 PM

EBAY Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:19:18 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $74.55 +2.82% ... $75.30 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:18:46 PM

eBay (EBAY) $32.12 +1.70% ... $32.10 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:17:59 PM

IBM 1Q Europe/Middle East/Africa Rev +4% adjusted for currency.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:17:19 PM

IBM 1Q US Rev +6%

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:16:06 PM

IBM Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:15:12 PM

IBM Ends 1Q With Services Backlog $118B, Up $2B

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:14:15 PM

IBM's 1Q Asia-Pacific Rev +3% adjusted for currency.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:13:24 PM

EMC Corp. (EMC) $14.63 +3.24% ... $14.85 extended.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 4:13:17 PM

Here are the economic reports for tomorrow.

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. Expected: +18K. Previous: -53K.

10:00a.m. Mar Conference Board Leading Indicators Expected: -0.1%. Previous: -0.3%.

10:00a.m. Apr Philadelphia Fed Business Index. Expected: -15. Previous: -17.4.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:12:24 PM

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $47.10 +2.79% ... $47.70 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:11:06 PM

QQQQ $45.37 +2.78% ... ticks $45.64 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:10:38 PM

DIA $126.46

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:10:22 PM

YM 12,647

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:10:01 PM

International Business Machines (IBM) $120.47 +2.81% ... jumps to $123.50 on headline numbers. #1 weighting in INDU/DIA/YM

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:09:08 PM

DJ newswires humming with earnings releases.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:08:36 PM

Gilead Sciences (GILD) $51.80 +1.42% ... jumpst to $53.25 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:05:57 PM

Pilgrim's Price: Homeland Security Took 400 Workers Into Custody

DJ (04:02 PM) - Pilgrim's Pride Corp. (PPC) confirmed the Department of Homeland Security took 400 employees into custody at five processing facilities across the South. The company said it is working to "prevent or minimize" disruptions in operations at the affected sites. "According to the U.S. Attorney's Office, these individuals have engaged in immigration-related crimes, including aggravated identity theft, in order to fraudulently obtain employment with the company," the company said in a statement. Pilgrim's Pride said no civil or criminal charges have been filed against the company in any of the cases. Officials from the Customs Enforcement division took into custody employees at plants in Batesville, Ark.; Chattanooga, Tenn.; Live Oak, Fla.; Morefield, W.Va.; and Mt. Pleasant, Texas. Pilgrim's Pride said it had terminated all employees who were arrested and would terminate employees found to have engaged in similar misconduct. The company said the employees taken into custody represent about 4% of the 9,400 people employed at the facilities. PPC $20.98 +3.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:03:12 PM

EPA: US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Fell 1.1% From '05 to '06

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 4:01:31 PM

Live - Simpson Mfg. Buys Assets Of Liebig Co. For $18.3M

SSD $26.16 +3.60% ...

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 3:57:19 PM

The bulls are in control today and, although they did give up a little of that control earlier, they are back in the drivers seat now. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 3:54:12 PM

Breakout on the SPX's 15-minute chart. Time for end-of-day decisions if you haven't already made them. It's not impossible but rare to have two huge days of gains follow one after another, so especially if you're in April calls, ask yourself what's going to happen to them if we get a choppy day tomorrow that ends up with a long-legged doji or other small-bodied candle.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 3:48:00 PM

SPY-QW are $0.71 x $0.72. Were $0.87 bid at beige book.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 3:47:24 PM

SPX Daily Intervals with your Q and M Pivot retracement as VIX trades its MS1. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 3:47:04 PM

I meant to type "SPX," not "OEX" in my 3:46:03 post. I've corrected that post. The OEX has not yet, of course, hit its potential Keltner target, now at 627.96. This is not a rally in which the generals are leading the way, is it? Hmmm.

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 3:46:03 PM

The SPX has now hit its upside target and potential Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes. It's going to be time sooner or later for the SPX to drop back again and retest its 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1358.09. If it doesn't happen soon, though, it might not happen at all today. Shorts who have been waiting all day for a pullback so that they can cover could finally give up and start doing so here, fueling a last-minute bump higher.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 3:41:19 PM

Utilities HOLDRs (UTH) $132.19 +1.65% ... at same time traded 50% conventional.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 3:40:44 PM

VIX alert! 20.77 ... M S1.

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 3:39:19 PM

Not that it always means anything, but the SPX has produced a marked tentative bearish price/RSI divergence as it rose to test the Keltner upside target and potential resistance. Sometimes in a trending market, you know that such divergences are only signs that some sideways consolidation or a small pullback within the rising configuration are likely, but still be on the watch in case it means more. Market-on-close orders are coming. I don't expect a big pullback in the last few minutes of such a strong day, but it's happened before and it can again.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 3:29:47 PM

Sears Holdings (SHLD) $102.07 +0.74% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 3:29:08 PM

Whirlpool (WHR) $81.32 +1.43% ... reversing losses.

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 3:26:03 PM

The SPX's 15-minute chart shows a potential target but also potential resistance now at 1362.41. More importantly, though, the daily chart shows potential resistance on daily closes (72-ema at 1363.09) and then former trendline resistance at about 1365-1366. So, the SPX is approaching a zone that has been strong resistance in the past, and it's doing it after producing a tall green candle today. You know what sometimes happens after big gains, don't you? We sometimes get a consolidation day with long-legged, small-bodied candles, such as those we saw after the 4/01 gain. A reversal down from resistance must be considered as a possibility, too, although nothing about the chart marks it as a probability rather than just a possibility. Factor all this in as you're making your end-of-day decisions.

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 3:20:02 PM

Some of you know that I mostly trade full condors and credit spreads, although my trading goal this year is to vary trades a bit to vary my vega risks. I don't like what happens to an account full of condors or just credit spreads when that volatility sprints higher.

Some of you have asked me to tell what I've been doing, but I always preface this by saying that I'm not in competition with Mike Parnos, who runs these types of plays for subscribers to the Couch Potato newsletter that's part of our group. I wouldn't set myself up that way anyway, but I especially wouldn't do it because in the course of meeting last year's trading goal, I suffered a big loss last summer in a failed hedging attempt. I don't want anyone following down that path with me, although I'm not going to venture down that particular one myself again.

If you've been following my posts for long, you know that in this particular market climate, I'm concerned about my risk. One of the ways that you incur more risk is by staying in the market longer, so I close out my credit spreads when I can do so for 60% of my original credit collected. For the May cycle (I've long been out of all April condors and am, as of yesterday, now out of all my May ones, too), I attempted to stay in some until I could collect a nickel more profit. I'll keep doing that, in an attempt to increase my earnings again to what they used to be, but I don't think I'll ever go back to just letting them expire worthless. It's just too difficult to do anything with a going-wrong condor in the last week of option expiration. I like this better for me. It's right for me, but perhaps not for you. It definitely cuts down on income, but I've made steady profits for the last eight months since that disastrous hedging attempt.

It's those bull put credit spreads that give me heartburn in this market climate, so I haven't been doing as many full condors over the last few months. I tend to have some unmatched bear call spreads. For May, for example, I had only 45 contracts of full condors and 55 more unmatched bear call spreads for a total of 100 bear call spreads and 45 bull put ones. I started out with only 75 bear call spreads, but after I'd closed out 25 contracts of the SPX 1505/1515 ones for my typical 60% of the original credit (minus commissions, of course), I got another opportunity to put on that same 25 contracts again and closed that out in the last week, too. That's one of the benefits of doing things this way. You sometimes get to collect twice as you have time to do so.

So, am I just sitting around, twiddling my thumbs now that I have zero positions and it's too early to put on June ones? No, for the next two weeks, I'll be studying more about various types of butterflies, calendars, and double diagonals, some of the things I will try to a greater extent this year. I've done them all, of course, but now I want to do more than dabble here and there. I want them to be a more extensive part of my portfolio. Just this last week, I tried a couple of trades I wouldn't typically do, watching how they unfolded, making sure I wasn't risking much for my education.

What's your trading goal for this year? How are you working toward meeting it?

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 3:19:03 PM

INDU 12,575 +1.72% ... +180 from its Q Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 3:18:19 PM

SPX 1,359.57 +1.88% ... +9 from its Q Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 3:17:48 PM

OEX 625.06 +1.64% ... -3 from its Q Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 3:17:19 PM

RUT.X $710.53 +2.67% ... +10 from its Q Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 3:16:47 PM

QQQQ $45.41 +2.85% ... back for another look at Q Pivot.

Keene Little : 4/16/2008 3:15:37 PM

It looks like we're going for gap closure from the April 11th gap down. SPX close on 4/10 was 136.80 (ES 1363.25).

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 3:06:01 PM

Metals In the News ... DJ (earlier) - Shares of several metal producers rose sharply as gold and other precious metals surged after crude oil reached record highs. Freeport McMoRan Cooper & Gold Inc. (FCX, $111.55, $6.05, 5.73%), Titanium Metals Corp. (TIE, $16.49, $1.23, 8.06%), RTI International Metals Inc. (RTI, $48.65, $1.81, 3.86%) and Allegheny Technologies Inc. (ATI, $77.57, $3.09, 4.15%) are among those trading higher in the sector. In addition, Nucor Corp. (NUE, $72.12, $3.31, 4.81%) upgraded to buy from neutral by Longbow Research. The firm said price increases on steel products have more than offset raw material costs, and expects margin expansion through the first-half of 2008.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 3:01:41 PM

Materials SPDRs (XLB) $43.93 +4.09% ... after a new 52-week (10/31/07) peek at $44.03.

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 3:00:13 PM

There we go. I was beginning to wonder if the SPX was going to topple over again. The SPX now faces next potential resistance on 15-minute closes, being a little above that 1358.20-ish level as I type. Next potential resistance, if this is broken, is the upside target at 1362.64. If you're in bullish positions, be inching your stops up as the SPX moves higher and closer to that potential target and next strong resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 2:56:59 PM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $45.09 +3.55% ... study chart of ITW.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 2:55:53 PM

Illinois Tool Works Inc.'s (ITW) $52.30 +3.46% ... DJ (earlier) first-quarter net income fell 25%, hurt by impairment and European tax charges, which reduced profit from continuing operations to 57 cents. The Glenview, Ill., manufacturer said adjusted earnings rose 16% to 79 cents a share. Revenue rose 11% to $4.14 billion. Analysts projected earnings of 76 cents a share. The company sees 2008 per-share profit from continuing operations of $3.35 to $3.49 and revenue growth of 8% to 12%.

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 2:53:52 PM

This consolidation is all well and good, but it's gone on about long enough now or we need to start getting worried about a dip again. It's understandable that some time was needed to digest the morning's gains and then digest the Beige Book. However, if this sideways stuff goes on too long then a move across the 15-minute 9-ema begins to mean little and the natural-and-expected sideways movement becomes just a little more worrisome. The bond market closes soon and that sometimes prompts either another burst in the direction of an earlier trend or a reversal of that trend, so maybe we'll see then.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 2:50:40 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) Alert! 5,048.70 +3.39% ... sticks its head above its 10/05/07 relative high close.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 2:49:15 PM

YRC Worldwide (YRCW) $14.09 +5.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 2:48:54 PM

Is that diesel smoke in the distance?

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 2:47:58 PM

Fat fingered DSX $28.08 +7.25% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 2:47:37 PM

CSX Corp. (CSX) $59.61 +3.16% ... DJ (earlier) - reported a first-quarter profit of $351 million, or 85 cents a share, up from $240 million, or 52 cents a share, a year earlier. The railroad posted revenue of $2.7 billion, up 12% from the same quarter last year. Analysts were looking for a profit of 71 cents a share with sales of $2.6 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 2:46:20 PM

Adtran Inc. (ADTN $22.48 +9.12% ... DJ (earlier) - upgraded to strong buy from market perform by Raymond James. The firm said the digital-communication-products company should see increased demand for its TA 5000 product as carriers continue to migrate to Ethernet over copper.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 2:44:37 PM

Pozen Inc. (POZN) $13.47 +27.82% ... DJ (earlier) - Said its migraine pill Treximet - which was developed jointly with GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK, $42.56 +0.82%) was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. U.S. approval - which has the potential to reap more than $1 billion in annual sales - has repeatedly been delayed. Treximet is the lead drug for Pozen, based in Chapel Hill, N.C.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 2:42:54 PM

TLB opening tick was $12.00. That would have been a honey.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 2:42:17 PM

Talbots $8.98 -30.11% ... DJ (earlier) - disclosed that two banks canceled their letters of credit with the company, removing about $265 million of liquidity and raising concerns about the company's ability to access money.

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 2:34:20 PM

The OEX did not manage a 15-minute close above its 15-minute 9-ema, but it's testing it again as I type. Nearest potential resistance other than the 15-minute 9-ema is 624.48 on 15-minute closes. The possible target and next resistance is 628.22, but at this moment, until this 15-minute close, it still looks vulnerable to a drawback to 619.68-620.90.

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 2:32:45 PM

The SPX has managed a 15-minute close back above its 9-ema, even if the close isn't a strong one above that moving average. This maintains, so far, the potential upside target now at 1362.61. Next potential Keltner resistance is 1357.60 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 2:32:13 PM

ALFAC (AFL) $67.34 +1.24% ... notable new 52-weeker at the big board.

MOST NH at the NYSE since 12/26/07's 104.

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 2:27:37 PM

The VIX has a while to go to undo the breakdown status on its 15-minute chart (21.55) but it's been rising since the 12:30 15-minute candle, so keep an eye on it. It's 21.19 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 2:26:28 PM

The A/D line has not fallen steeply. It maintains its breakout status. So far, that's in favor of the bulls, but keep your eyes on the A/D line because for the first time today, it's starting to find resistance at the 15-minute 9-ema, and that's a negative sign.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 2:21:56 PM

iShares Brazil (EWZ) $86.08 +2.29% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 2:20:24 PM

The OEX has a current potential upside target of 628.26. However, as the charts are set up now, it needs to clear its 15-minute 9-ema now at 622.86 or it risks falling toward 619.60-620.60 instead. Other potential resistance exists at 624.52.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 2:19:56 PM

Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO) $37.30 +3.38% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 2:18:58 PM

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) $121.09 -1.63% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 2:19:09 PM

The current target for the SPX is 1362.68, but maintaining that target requires that the SPX bounce back above its 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1353.74. and maintain values above it. Then it faces new potential resistance at 1357.69 on 15-minute closes before moving up toward that target, if it does. Remember that such targets are also often areas of resistance on 15-minute closes. As I type, the SPX needs to clear that 15-minute 9-ema or else it risks falling toward 1347.70 instead.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 2:18:29 PM

DJ Live- Brazil Stocks, Real Trim Gains After Beige Book Release

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 2:16:40 PM

02:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 2:12:03 PM

There's that dip on the OEX, at least, although the SPX has not quite made it down to the 1352.20 level yet and may not. I said a few minutes ago that a dip to these levels would not surprise me, but now we have to see what happens next. If the SPX and OEX can steady here on 15-minute closes and then bounce, this just constitutes the often-seen move across a Keltner channel during the lunchtime lull or slightly after it, in this case. If, however, the dip is deeper, toward 1347.60 on the SPX, for example, or, even deeper, to 1344, the eventual outcome is a bit more in question. So, equity bulls want a steadying and then a bounce to a new high. Do be vigilant here, though.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 2:08:27 PM

Hit target ya!!!!

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 2:07:54 PM

Lower stop to breakeven

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 2:06:42 PM

We are within 6 ticks of target.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 2:03:48 PM

Live- Fed Beige Book (Up to 4/7/08) Link

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 1:59:10 PM

I'm back and I see that the SPX has consolidated the entire time I've been gone. It would not be surprising to see the SPX drop toward 1352.20 or the OEX toward 622.15 now, but the release of the Beige Book in a few minutes will trump anything we see on the chart setups.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 1:58:15 PM

30-year Yield ($TYX.X) Alert! up 11.1 bp at 4.516%. This is 50% retracement of 10/15/08 relative high (equity market "top") and 1/23/08 low (equity market "bottom")

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 1:55:21 PM

Once the YM breaks the swing low at 12529 I will lower my stop to 12551.

Keene Little : 4/16/2008 1:53:13 PM

The pullback from today's high looks more like a bull flag which suggests higher but with the potential end of a 5-wave move up from yesterday I'm a little hesitant to believe that. With the Fed Beige book coming out in 10 minutes we should get our answer. If it does continue higher then keep an eye out for how price behaves around SPX 1360. If we see a further pullback then a 38%-50% retracement of the rally off yesterday's low could have SPX finding support at 1340-1345.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 1:44:50 PM

These charts of the VIX and S&P futures tell me this little sell off will not last but my system did give me a short setup and I will play it out like the rules say. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 1:41:49 PM

Just thought I may as well throw in the chart - sorry.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 1:41:23 PM


Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 1:40:58 PM

Comment from Rick, I hope that you'll continue your running VIX/ADline commentary. I always find it very helpful.

Geesh Rick I sure will. Here is the AD volume, VIX and AD ratio combo. This tells me the bulls have the ball (and I am short:()

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 1:40:29 PM

Lower stop to 12561. Not much but at least it reduces your risk a tad.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 1:23:05 PM

VIX.X daily interval chart with your QUARTERLY and MONTHLY Pivot retracements Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 1:16:24 PM

VIX.X Watch Link ... with VIX.X nearing its MONTHLY S1, we'd have to go back to Dec'06 to find such an event.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 1:10:25 PM

Target on the YM short from 12544 will be 12517.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 1:05:47 PM

Just triggered into a YM short - stop is 12571 and target is 1:1 ratio to risk.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 1:05:00 PM

Ok I am going to try another YM counter trend trade at 12544.

Keene Little : 4/16/2008 12:48:30 PM

SPX is also nearing the mid line of its parallel up-channel from the March low, near the same 1360 level. This 120-min chart shows the possibilities from here as I see them: Link . A pullback should be followed by another rally leg. It will either rally up to the 1400-1415 area (green) or stall at or below 1380 and head back down towards 1275 by the end of the month (dark red). At least for now we should another leg higher this week after a pullback.

Keene Little : 4/16/2008 12:40:35 PM

With the push higher again, SPX (and the others) are making a nice impulsive climb off yesterday morning's low. The move up from the mid-day pullback should be the 5th wave and it projects to 1360 where it will equal the 1st wave (the bounce off yesterday's low to the high near 2:00 PM)--5-min chart: Link

It has already achieved the first upside Fib target at 1356.90 (62% of wave 1) so be wary of a top here for the day. The setup is for a pullback (for a day-trade shorting opportunity) but the trend is back to the upside with this impulsive rally.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 12:40:11 PM

Continuous Lean Hog Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 12:36:49 PM

Oh my! Hog farmers on fire!

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 12:36:37 PM

Needless to say the short is off the table, bulls are just too strong today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 12:27:18 PM

Live Slovakia Reports 2nd Outbreak Of Swine Fever In A Week

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 12:20:00 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 12:19:53 PM

I'll be away from my desk for up to two hours, but I hope to get back before the release of the Beige Book. Do keep that release in mind as you go through the afternoon, reassessing whether you want to stay in your trades over that release.

The SPX came back toward, but not to, the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1351.77. Potential support on 15-minute closes lies there. A potential target is 1363.37, but it's now got potential resistance before that, now at about 1356.98. Be a bit wary about those upside targets, but if this one is hit, do have profit-protecting plans already in place. The powers that be have obviously decided to try to get something going to the upside, and they might be successful this time, but a truly worrisome Beige Book report could undo that. For the OEX, the 15-minute 9-ema is now 622.34. The target is 628.75, but there's potential resistance before that now, at 624.65.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 12:16:28 PM

Rather surprised ... Before I looked, was thinking $81-ish.

WHR $78.84 -1.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 12:12:14 PM

Review: TYX's conventional 50% retracement (Oct'07 relative high to 01/23/08 low) is at 4.515%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 12:10:29 PM

30-year Yield ($TYX.X) session high and either side of WKLY R2!

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 12:10:04 PM

I will short YM at 12518 with a stop at 12552. Target will be 12552-12518 = 34 12518 - 34 = 12484.

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 12:01:02 PM

An SPX dip to test the 15-minute 9-ema and then a steadying from it before another bounce would not be a surprising thing to happen. Bulls just don't want values below that 15-minute 9-ema to be sustained. That's now 1350.15 for the SPX and 621.73 for the OEX. I see the potential for both to decline a bit deeper, but not yet a probability that they will.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 11:57:22 AM

USO $90.30 -1.23% ... just tested correlative WR1 and QR1. M R2 ($91.83) and upper-end of "Bailey Wave" found some technical selling.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 11:55:37 AM

30-minutes ago, DXY was trading at its WKLY S1 (71.38)

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 11:52:53 AM

Most Actives ... SPY $135.19 +1.46%, INTC $22.14 +5.88%, QQQQ $45.16 +2.31%, WM $10.78 +1.12%, C $23.35 +2.41%, MSFT $28.70 +1.59%, ORCL $20.78 +2.97%, CSCO $23.63 +2.25%, XLF $25.25 +1.85%, CFC $5.04 +6.10%

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 11:49:21 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1350.33; the OEX's, 621.73. Equity bulls want these to hold as support on 15-minute closes.

Keene Little : 4/16/2008 11:49:10 AM

The DOW tried breaking its downtrend line earlier and made it slightly above it (at 12550) but has since dropped back below it. SPX and RUT have easily broken their downtrend lines and are well above them. So that leaves us a bit of a mixed picture between the indices.

Keene Little : 4/16/2008 11:47:25 AM

NDX is pushing slightly above its downtrend line from April 7th near 1836. Bulls will want to hold this break to prove we've got a trend reversal back to the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 11:47:12 AM

AMR Sees 2Q Mainline Unit Costs Up 17.7%

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 11:46:23 AM

Live DJ- Brazil's Entral Bank Buys Dollars At BRL 1.6720

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 11:45:44 AM

AMR Sees 2Q Jet Fuel Consumption 771M Gallons

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 11:45:12 AM

DJ Live- AMR Has 36% 2Q Jet Fuel Consumption Capped At $72/Bbl

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 11:40:47 AM

DJ Live- AMR Sees FY Mainline Capacity Down 1.4% in '08 Vs '07

AMR $9.22 +7.35% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 11:36:21 AM

USO $90.61 -0.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 11:35:54 AM

PBR $122.13 -0.78% ... probes Monday's close.

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 11:34:42 AM

So far, the SPX has held above that 1349.50-ish area, but it remains vulnerable to a drop to that area. "Vulnerable to" and actually doing it have been two different things today, though. The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1349.76; the OEX's, 621.57.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 11:28:40 AM

$2,500 / $18.00 = 138 shares of SWC.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 11:27:57 AM

I will be out of the office next week. The SWC 1/4 position long would be "covered" by the one (1) SWC-QW from 3/27/08 entry.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 11:26:46 AM

Swing trade covered long alert! ... for 1/4 position ($2,500) in shares of Stillwater Mining (SWC) at the offer of $18.00 +7.91%.

No stop for now.

Keene Little : 4/16/2008 11:25:38 AM

A drop in the euro could take gold down with it and today gold tagged potential resistance at the top of its own rising wedge pattern off the April 1st low as shown on this 60-min YG chart (emini, June contract): Link . The 50% retracement of the March decline is at 957 so there's a little higher potential from a Fib perspective.

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 11:17:17 AM

The OEX has already dropped to retest support on the 30-minute chart that's analogous to the SPX's 1348.06-1349.99 level. That's about 622.14-623 for the OEX. If this doesn't hold as support on 30-minute closes, dial down to the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 620.68, for a look at where next potential support might be. The 15-minute chart has set a potential upside target of 628.97 for the OEX, but be a bit wary of targets today with the Beige Book still ahead of us, and do have profit-protecting plans in mind for a test of that target, if it should occur. Such targets are also potential resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 11:13:56 AM

10:40 AM Energy Futures Link

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 11:13:42 AM

Watch for potential SPX support at 1348.06-1349.99 on 30-minute closes. I wouldn't be surprised to see that tested. If that doesn't hold, we turn to the 15-minute chart's 9-ema, now at 1347.55, for possible support.

On that 15-minute chart, a potential upside target of 1363.73 has been set, but with the Beige Book announcement ahead of us, be wary of trusting the targets today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 11:10:20 AM

13-week Treasury Yield ($IRX.X) unch at 1.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 11:09:41 AM

11:05 DJ- Quebec 3-mos T-Bil Avg. Yield Rises To 2.657% From 2.344%

Average yield on a C$175 million (US$172 million) auction of 91-day province of Quebec treasury bills was 2.657%, up from 2.344% at the previous auction of 91-day bills held April 9. Average price was 99.342 versus 99.419. The bills mature July 18, 2008. Average yield on a C$75 million auction of 182-day province of Quebec treasury bills was 2.740%, up from 2.320% at an auction of 183-day bills held March 19. Average price was 98.652 versus 98.850. The bills mature Oct. 17.

Keene Little : 4/16/2008 11:09:20 AM

If the euro does not hold its rally high today it will create a potential throw-over finish to the rising wedge pattern I've shown recently: . The bearish divergences continue at the new highs. Gold has rallied with the euro today but if the euro is topping here it's a signal for gold bulls to be cautious. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 11:06:42 AM

After looking at the Gold and Crude chart does anyone want to hazard a guess as to what the greenback is doing. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 11:04:44 AM

Crude hit a high of 114.53 on the surprise from the inventories data. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 11:02:53 AM

Here is the daily SPX chart. 1390-1400 remains resistance and until we get a close above this area the bulls will not be able to rest easy. It was very encouraging the swing low from April 14th was a higher low so the trend remains up. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 11:00:38 AM

Sector Losers ... 5 to 30-year dated Treasuries, Dollar -0.90%, HMO's -0.43%

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:59:30 AM

Sector Winners ... Gold Bugs +4.71%, Semiconductors +4.12%, Regional Banks +3.84%, Home Construction +3.31%, Money Center Banks +3.08%

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:48:24 AM

USO $92.04 +0.65% Link ... sticks its head above WKLY R2 ($91.62)

Keene Little : 4/16/2008 10:43:37 AM

While INTC was able to close the Jan 15th gap (at 22.69) in yesterday's after-hours rally it hasn't been able to achieve that yet today. Low VIX at support, GOOG not participating, INTC unable to match its after-hours high--just some signs that should have bulls feeling a little nervous here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:41:56 AM

WNR $12.27 +3.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:41:15 AM

VLO $50.35 +3.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:41:00 AM

TSO $27.03 +4.04% ...

Keene Little : 4/16/2008 10:40:47 AM

I'm not sure why but GOOG is not participating in today's rally--it's currently down -0.5% while the rest of the market is up strong. It's even threatening to break down lower.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:40:18 AM

EIA: US Refineries Ran At 81.4%; Seen 83.7%

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:39:13 AM

EIA: US Distillate Stockpiles +100K Bble; Seen -1.5M

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:38:27 AM

EIA: US Gasoline Stockpiles down 5.5M Bbls In Week; Seen -1.7M

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:37:50 AM

EIA: Crude Oil Stockpiles down 2.3 Mln Bbl at 313.7.

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 10:37:40 AM

This has proven to be a day when ordinary rules don't apply, so choose carefully if you intend to enter or have entered a trade. If you're already in a bullish trade, your task is easier. I should say "tasks," because you now have two. One is to follow the SPX or other trading vehicle higher with your stops. The other is to decide whether you want to risk all these nicely accumulated gains to the vagaries of what happens after the Beige Book is released. If you don't intend to do so, you should perhaps decide at what points you're going to start stepping out of partial positions, beginning to lock in some profit. At some point, markets are going to settle down into the midday lull--actually, I shouldn't say that because this is such an unusual pattern with lots of pent-up energy to expend--and premiums may settle, too.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:37:13 AM

Platinum Mkt 08 Deficit Seen At 360,800 Oz - VM Group

DJ- The platinum market will be in a deficit of 360,800 troy ounces in 2008, from a 412,400 oz deficit in 2007, VM Group metals said Tuesday in its biannual White Book.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:35:40 AM

Impala Platinum To Sell Stake In Aquarius Platinum For $744M JOHANNESBURG

DJ- Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. (IMPUY), the world's second-largest platinum producer, Wednesday said it has agreed to sell its 8.4% holding in Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (AQP.AU) to the smaller company for about $744 million.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:33:35 AM

Live- EIA: Crude Oil Stockpiles ... CNBC reporting data delayed.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:31:49 AM

USO $90.78 -0.62% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:31:12 AM

More Managers See Dollar As Undervalued

DJ- The number of fund mangers who believe the dollar is undervalued climbs to 50% in April, up from 41% in March, a Merrill Lynch survey shows. The number seeing the euro is overvalued moves to 71%, from 66% a month ago.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:30:18 AM


China's central bank will raise banks' reserve requirement ratio for the third time this year to curb excess liquidity and slow lending growth. Move comes as economic growth slows in 1Q on weather disruptions, but inflation remains stubbornly high.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 10:29:19 AM

Gold is making a bold move here and the higher low tells me this resistance will probably break. I am long GLD from last week. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 10:29:22 AM

A/D line now 1932. The "break through resistance" option, the most bullish possibility but "least likely" of the three possible actions mentioned in the chart linked to my 10:13:30 post, has happened. If the SPX can close this 30-minute period above that resistance now at 1349.62-1350.59, then it has potential support there and is no longer so unsupported.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:29:19 AM

DJ Top Stories (earlier)


Bank's net income falls to $2.37 billion, or 68c a share, as its total revenue falls 9% to $17.9 billion. Wall Street expected earnings of 64c a share on revenue of $17.4 billion. Bank adds $2.5 billion to its allowance for credit losses, and says its investment banking unit marked down $2.6 billion of assets. Firm sees difficult market conditions continuing. JPM $44.06 +4.60% ...


Chip maker shares gain 6% on a rosier 2Q forecast even though 1Q profit slides 12% to $1.44 billion, or 25c, down from $1.64 billion, or 28c a year earlier, weighed down by a major restructuring charge. INTC $22.10 +5.69% ...


Bank posts net income of $2 billion, or 60c a share, as it reports $326 million in mortgage-related write-downs and nearly triples its credit-loss provision. Analysts expected EPS of 57c. WFC $30.00 +7.87% ...


Beverage giant's net rises to $1.5 billion, or 64c a share, which includes a restructuring charge of 3c a share. Wall Street expected EPS of 63c. Revenue jumps 21% to $7.38 billion. KO $60.74 -0.34% ...

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 10:25:56 AM

Q1 industrial production down 0.1%

March capacity utilization rises to 80.5% vs 80.3% Feb.

Feb. industrial production down rev 0.7% vs 0.5% prev

March industrial production up 0.3% vs down 0.1% est.

Keene Little : 4/16/2008 10:25:16 AM

We're getting a blast higher across the board, techs included this time. There's now a 5-wave move up from yesterday's late-afternoon pullback so we should get either a deeper pullback or a sideways consolidation. VIX did not drop to a new low on that burst higher so we've got a little non-confirmation there.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 10:24:42 AM

This was a very very good example of not letting your bias affect your trading and how important it is to stick to the rules. I am very glad I did stick to my rules but sorry I didn't profile the long here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:23:46 AM

Capacity utilization remains high/robust. Can be inflationary level without higher productivity readings.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 10:22:56 AM

And I just hit my long target. Who'd a thunk

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:22:28 AM

10:05 AM DJ- US March Ind. Production +0.3%; Capacity Utilization 80.5%

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 10:21:18 AM

Just as well we didn't get filled short because it certainly looks like the bulls rule today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:20:56 AM

10:06 AM - DJ- Johnshon Controls Shares Suge On FY2Q Net

JCI $34.40 +5.39% ... off highs of $35.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:17:22 AM

WNR's Book Value $11.16/share.

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 10:16:21 AM

A/D line now 1738. It's not pulling back hard, so far. So far, then, that's supporting the idea of sideways consolidation for a time, at least, but the A/D line and the SPX are both kind of hanging out there with no close support (see my 10;13:30 post about the SPX), so, barring the strongest of bullish conviction, they're vulnerable to a pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:15:17 AM

Live- Western Refining Cut to Mkt Perform at Tristone. Target cut to $9 from $14.

WNR $12.00 +0.94% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:13:36 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 10:13:30 AM

I don't know what's going to happen next. Here's an update of the SPX chart I posted earlier, saying that I expected the SPX to stall. It poses a few possibilities: Link

Keene Little : 4/16/2008 10:06:58 AM

I'd sure feel better about the upside if there wasn't so much complacency out there about the rally potential. The VIX is back down to its uptrend line from June 2007 and showing some bullish divergence at the low as compared to the April 7th low. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 10:05:18 AM

We're now getting the expected stalling. Equity bulls don't want it to be any more than that. I just took a look at the VIX, too, on the 15-minute Keltner chart. Like the A/D line, it created a breakout mode, but in the VIX's case, it was a downside breakdown. However, it sprang up from the low of the day. Equity bulls don't want to see it regain and then maintain values above about 21.80. For now, we should assume that the VIX will face resistance near there if it attempts to rise further. The VIX is 21.44 as I type.

The A/D line is 1765, off its day's high, but so far not far off. It's moving sideways, but I would expect a sideways/down movement to some degree due to the heighth it reached. Now we see if others join in with the original buying or if this ballooning value collapses. Equity bulls don't want to see it drop all the way to next support, now near 1050-1250.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 10:04:17 AM

OK I see a YM short at 12459 now. STop will be a few ticks above the high of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 10:02:20 AM

Dollar Index (DXY) 71.39 -0.88% (30-min delayed) ... notably weak.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 10:00:54 AM

I took the long YM because I take every trade my strategy gives me but since I do not post every trade here I will be a little more choosey.

Keene Little : 4/16/2008 9:55:59 AM

The DOW and SPX pushed to a new high this morning but NDX has held back. If this is to be a tech-leg rally that's not what we want to see.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 9:54:29 AM

Short YM entry is off the table but I will continue to recalculate and once I get a firm number I will post the short. My system is long but I didn't think it was a good trade so I did not post it.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 9:53:59 AM

YRC Worldwide (YRCW) $13.58 +1.95% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 9:52:38 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 4,981 +2.02% ... have reclaimed their UPS earnings price level.

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 9:51:19 AM

The A/D line did not pull back by the end of the first 15-minute period, as it did yesterday, so, as I suspected, it's acting differently this morning. That doesn't mean that it can't pull back the rest of the day, but we have a first divergence and a breakout signal. When I look at the equity charts, I see lots of possibilities that the SPX, for example, will soon steady and move sideways, if not pull back toward 1345, but the A/D line continues to gain as I type. It's at 1815.

With a breakout signal in place, would be bears should be ready to jump right back out of trades if they don't work.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 9:45:33 AM

Toll Bros. (TOL) $22.62 +1.61% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 9:45:00 AM

Pre-market release- Housing construction falls sharply in March ... AP Story Link

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 9:41:41 AM

Here's where the SPX is currently, as shown on a 30-minute chart: Link I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPX stall now or near 1350(actually, I expected it a point lower, nearer 1346) or even pull back. The depth of the pullback, if there is one, or the absence of much pullback at all, will tell us much.

Jeff Bailey : 4/16/2008 9:41:09 AM

Pre-market release - MBA's Weekly Application Survey Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 9:40:47 AM

Short now at 12432.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 9:40:29 AM

I see a YM short at 12427 and the stop will be a few ticks above thedaily highs at 12471 so this trade has a large profile.

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 9:36:59 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line jumped above the trendline that we were watching early yesterday morning, too, and is now headed toward the potential Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes that stopped the A/D line yesterday and showed us something was going on. That resistance is currently at about 1065, with the A/D line currently 1511. Remember yesterday morning that a breach of this line did not last through the first 15-minute period. We'll watch to see if this morning is different, as I suspect it could be, but the possibility that this resistance will hold on the 15-minute close cannot yet be discarded. If the A/D line closes this first 15-minute period without a significant pullback, it will have created a breakout signal. That means it's vulnerable to pullbacks, but that the upward momentum is currently strong.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 9:33:44 AM

AD line opens at +711 but we are very overbought so I am looking for a short reversal on the Dow futures (YM).

Linda Piazza : 4/16/2008 9:30:40 AM

As you're making trading decisions this morning, remember the Beige Book release still ahead of us at 2:00 pm ET. That definitely can be a market-moving release. Decide now if you want to hold positions open during that release and plan accordingly.

SPX futures are currently almost 12 points above fair value, which would bring the SPX up to about 1346.40 or so if the cash markets follow suit. The 38.2% retracement of the slide off the Thursday high last week is at 1342.18 and there's potentially strong Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes that's now at almost 1341 but will get pushed higher, so I'd be careful in that zone, watching for the potential for markets to stall or roll over.

Keene Little : 4/16/2008 9:29:41 AM

Equity futures had given up their INTC after-earnings rally by the 6:00 AM low and then rallied strong from there. It looks like another one of those manufactured rallies so my caution still stands--watch out for the possibility of a gap n crap this morning. But that's only a possibility. Obviously we've got a very bullish start to the day.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 9:14:47 AM

The overnight session was mostly above the previous day range and all markets are making new overnight highs as I type. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 9:07:27 AM

Did I just read that right? China's GDP "slowed" to 10.6%. Whoa!!!

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 9:06:18 AM

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China's economic growth slowed to 10.6% in the first quarter of 2008 from the year-ago period, reflecting the impact from adverse weather conditions in the first two months of the year, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday. Thomson Financial had estimated an expansion of 11%. The Chinese economy accelerated 11.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2007. Data released separately by the government showed the country's consumer price index rose 8.3% in March from the same month a year-earlier, in line with expectations, according to wire reports.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 9:04:54 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. on Wednesday said its first-quarter profit was halved as the company booked higher provision for credit losses and wrote down the value of mortgages and leveraged loans.

The Wall Street giant said first-quarter net income fell by 50% to $2.4 billion, or 68 cents a share, from $4.8 billion, or $1.34 a share in the year-ago period. Revenue fell to $17.9 billion from $19.7 billion.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast earnings of 61 cents a share and revenue of $17.4 billion, on average.

Shares of J.P. Morgan rose nearly 2% in premarket trades. Also see Indications. The component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average added $2.5 billion to its allowance for credit losses. J.P. Morgan's investment banking unit took mark-downs of $2.6 billion, including mark-downs on leveraged lending and prime and subprime mortgages.

"Our earnings this quarter were down significantly as market conditions and the credit environment remained challenging," said Chief Executive Jamie Dimon in the earnings release.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 9:03:13 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Intel Corp.'s first-quarter profit fell 12%, weighed down by a major restructuring charge, but the chipmaker's shares surged in premarket trades after the company issued an upbeat forecast for the current period. The rosier second-quarter forecast had a soothing effect on investors and eased concerns, at least temporarily, that the impact of a weaker U.S. economy would spill over into the computer industry.

Shares of Intel jumped as much as 8% in preopen Wednesday trades. U.S. stock futures also rose.

"Overall, Intel delivered exactly what the market needed: a calming reassurance that macroeconomic weakness was not having an accelerating affect on PC, and by proxy, technology demand," analyst Cody Acree of Stifel Nicolaus wrote to clients.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 9:01:39 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home builders started the fewest homes in 17 years, as housing starts plunged 11.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 947,000 in March, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

March's rate was the lowest for housing starts since March 1991. Starts were down 36.5% compared with March 2007.

Also, building permits dropped 5.8% to 927,000 in March, 40.9% below the same month a year ago. The starts figure was much lower than expected on Wall Street, where economists were looking for a drop to 988,000 annualized units.

The stunning drop in home construction indicates that there is still no end in sight to the housing downturn, with the excess inventory of unsold homes on the market.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2008 9:00:14 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Inflation rose in March, the Labor Department reported Wednesday, as energy and food prices gained.

After virtually no change in February, the consumer price index in March rose 0.3%, matching estimates from analysts surveyed by MarketWatch.

Energy prices in March rose 1.9%. In the prior month, these costs declined 0.5%.

March food prices gained 0.2%, compared with 0.4% in the prior month.

The core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2% in March - matching analysts' estimates -- after no growth in the prior month. Prior to the release of the data, analysts had been expecting higher headline numbers due to gains in food and energy prices.

"The overall CPI likely re-accelerated in March after no change in February, reflecting renewed strength in energy prices as well as a trend-like rise in core prices," wrote Sam Coffin, an economist for UBS.

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