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Keene Little : 4/24/2008 1:09:18 AM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

The 120-min charts of each of the 4 indices show similar setups and an expectation that we'll get a pullback into Friday that sets up another push to marginal new highs next week before rolling back over. The RUT looks the weakest in that it is the closest to breaking its uptrend line from March 17th. That one looks like it needs to rally right away otherwise is threatening to break down (and could be our canary).

It's possible a pullback and then rally into next week will have some indexes making new highs for the bounce while others, like the RUT, may not. That would be bearish non-confirmation and a signal that the top of the bounce is in (at least for now).
SPX: Link
DOW: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/23/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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James Brown : 4/23/2008 4:38:08 PM

Apple Inc. (AAPL) closed at $162.89. Just reported earnings. Estimates were for $1.07/share. Results were $1.16 a share.

AAPL trading $162.75 in after hours with a range of $161.00-171.00.

James Brown : 4/23/2008 4:20:31 PM

Starbucks is issuing an earnings warning of 15 cents versus estimates of 20-21 cents/share. SBUX says this is the weakest economic environment in the company's history.

James Brown : 4/23/2008 4:09:01 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) closed at $80.99. Just reported earnings. Estimates were for 32-cents a share. AMZN delivered 34 cents.

AMZN is down about 5% near $75.50-76.00 in after hours.

James Brown : 4/23/2008 4:00:28 PM

The Hong Kong Hang Seng index was up 1.4%

While the Shanghai Composite was up 4.1% today.

James Brown : 4/23/2008 3:58:54 PM

Chinese stocks are just on fire today!

FXI ishares +7.5% to $160 (near 200-dma)
SNP +7.5% to $107.18
PTR +7.9% to $148.00
LFC +10.4% to $63.75 near 100-dma and exp. 200-dma
CAF +11.9% to $44.93 near 100-dma and exp. 200-dma
HNP +15.1% to $30.00 near 50-dma
JRJC +15.1% to $17.09 near 100-dma and exp. 200-dma
CHA +6% to $70.53 breaking out over 50-dma and 200-dma
SINA +5.8% to 43.40 testing resistance at 200-dma.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 3:58:31 PM

Tomorrow's economic report docket includes:

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. Expected: 3K. Previous: +17K.

8:30a.m. Mar Durable Goods Orders. Expected: +0.6%. Previous: -1.1%.

10:00a.m. Mar Help-Wanted Index. Previous: 21.

10:00a.m. Mar New Home Sales. Expected: -2.5%. Previous: -1.8%.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 3:56:54 PM

I still have my stop at 12734 or EOD whichever comes first. I see now I asked this non-directional market to give me too much profit.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 3:54:11 PM

What happens tonight? Japan's February All-Industry Survey. The U.K. gets a whole slate of numbers, including April's Nationwide Housing Prices at 2:00 am ET, March's retail sales at 4:30 and April's CBI Industrial Orders. Germany's important and potentially market moving Ifo Business Climate comes tomorrow morning at 4:00 am ET. Then, before the market opens tomorrow, we get Durable Goods at 8:30 along with weekly jobless claims.

James Brown : 4/23/2008 3:54:00 PM

Lamar Advertising (LAMR) is showing relative strength today up 1.8% to $37.47. I don't see any specific news that might account for the rally. The stock is breaking out from its brief sideways trading and breaking out over its descending 50-dma. The stock has already broken through its trendline of resistance dating back to the early December 2008 high. This might be a new bullish entry point but keep in mind LAMR is still in some congestion in the $37.50-38.00 area. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 3:49:02 PM

Time to make end-of-day decisions, if you haven't already. Unfortunately, the daily chart shows the SPX where it's been for a number of days, coiling inside Friday's range. It's also coiling along the 38.2% retracement of its long slide down from last fall, with that Fib level at about 1378.80. It's also coiling just under one version (best fit version) of the descending trendline off last fall's high. Lots of uncertainty and not any clarity: that makes end-of-day decisions particularly difficult because there's nothing but your own biases to guide you as to what happens next.

James Brown : 4/23/2008 3:44:39 PM

I agree with Jim. I'm surprised that crude oil hasn't shown more weakness. The USO is up fractionally and fully recovered from its early morning weakness.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 3:44:31 PM

WHew that was close. I have my stop at 12734 and that little selloff hit a low of 12738.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 3:32:32 PM

Right on cue at 12782 (overnight highs) YM turns around a takes a dip.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 3:28:20 PM

This morning, the OEX attempted to break out above the then-current version of its descending trendline off Friday's high, but then it hit that Keltner resistance that is currently 639.95, and it couldn't maintain 15-minute closes above it. In fact, it couldn't produce any 15-minute closes above its then-current level. So, I would require sustained 15-minute closes above it before I thought the OEX had broken above its bull flag and then would require a new high of the day and next a high above Friday's for confirmation.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 3:18:41 PM

YM's overnight high is sitting at 12782 so expect resistance there.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 3:18:20 PM

Potential Keltner resistance for the SPX at 1385.55, but that potential bull flag's resistance is lower, now at about 1381. I wouldn't consider an upside break confirmed until there are consistent 15-minute closes above that Keltner resistance, so if you're buying the breakout, be aware of that resistance overhead. Then, if that's cleared, you need to start watching today's high and Friday's high as possible resistance levels. FWIW, I don't day trade except for rare every-few-months moments when I'm tempted again, so I'm not going to be buying any breakouts. Over the next couple of weeks, I'll be looking at entries for June credit spreads. I'm out of all of my May ones as of last week.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 3:15:06 PM

I am raising my stop to 12734.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 3:15:45 PM

12751 - 12694 = 57 so the target on this trade is 12751 + 57 = 12808 and once again I will not require this market to break 12800 again so will take profits at 12798. Deja vu all over again.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 3:11:28 PM

ES made a new daily low at 12:40 but the VIX did not and ES has been in rally mode ever since. Link

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 3:04:52 PM

Looks like I am going for the longest trade on record. :) Still loooonnnnggg YM from 12751.

Keene Little : 4/23/2008 2:53:23 PM

Yep, I agree with Linda--little bull flags on the 60-min chart since Friday's high. I'm thinking price will work its way a little lower in those bull flags before rallying again. The uptrend line from March 17th will be near 1350 by Friday and would make for a good launch point up to 1400 next week.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 2:47:24 PM

Keene just mentioned little bear flags on the intraday charts and I mentioned a potential bull flag, but we're not contradicting each other. I'm referencing the period from Friday's high. He's referencing a shorter time period.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 2:46:25 PM

The SPX is about where it was the last time I posted about it and the time before that. It's coiling in a small triangle shape on the daily chart, a shape that looks more like a potential bull flag on the intraday chart. It's right in the middle of that flag, and, on the 15-minute chart, RSI is about as neutral as it can get, at 47.74. As of this moment, it would take sustained 15-minute closes above 1385.84 and sustained 15-minute closes below 1368.54 to change anything in a major way. Between those values, it's chop, and right now, none of my charts are suggesting next direction.

Keene Little : 4/23/2008 2:45:12 PM

The rise off the mid-day low, particularly for the DOW and SPX, look like little bear flags.

Tab Gilles : 4/23/2008 2:19:16 PM

Weekly EIA Report Link

Jim Brown : 4/23/2008 2:05:06 PM

Crude appears to have run out of steam but I am impressed that it failed to collapse after moving to the June contract. I fully expected it to give back at least a couple of dollars. The morning dip to $116.45 was $2 but that has been completely erased. The next 30 min until the futures close should be interesting.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 2:03:14 PM

As I worried might happen, the SPX's bounce attempt hasn't gotten far yet as it struggles with next resistance up to about 1378.80. Just chop.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 1:59:32 PM

This may be a good spot to go long Gold with a stop just under the April 1st swing low at 876. Link

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 1:57:52 PM

I am now long YM from 12751 and have a stop at 12694 just below the daily lows at 12698. Once I move into profit I will reduce my risk (raise my stop).

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 1:23:24 PM

The SPX has been finding support on 15-minute closes at the 15-minute 120-ema, now at about 1374.60. That's about midway between support and resistance in the price channel in which the SPX has been descending off Friday's high. So, in about as neutral a position as it can be right now. Which way will it go next? It's becoming less than useless to try to predict short-term direction. I say less than useless because trying to make such predictions can even persuade someone sitting there, angling to get into a trade, any trade, to leap into one. Right now, these conditions are not optimum.

The chart setup suggests it's possible that the SPX will attempt a bounce, perhaps during the typical stop-running time of day that comes from about 1:35-1:55 pm ET, but whether that bounce will actually appear or get anywhere, if it does, is in question. There's potentially strong resistance up to about 1378.80.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 1:22:05 PM

Typically if you fade short you will take some heat but the retracement should be a higher low and why you need to have your stop just below the daily lows.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 1:15:54 PM

We are very oversold and I expect a reactionary bounce. Technicals are still bearish but I am going fade the YM and see if I can take advantage of any bounce. This is a tricky trade because you don?t want to get in too soon and get caught in the noise but soon enough to get at least part of the bounce. The other tricky part is the stop needs to be under the lows of the day and makes the trade profile large.

I will go long YM at 12751 with a stop just under the lows at 12698.

Keene Little : 4/23/2008 1:11:03 PM

Seems many are looking for oil to rollover here and I agree. Looking at a 2 year chart of USO and SPX, the last time we had a major correction in USO, the SPX rallied significantly. Could we be setting up for the same trade? Would appreciate your always insightful comments. Thanks.

Barry, this is a very good question and I think many are thinking the same thing. The normal intermarket relationship between stocks and commodities is for commodities to lag stocks in their cyclical movements. Stocks topped in October 2007 and I believe we're in a topping pattern for commodities now. Stocks will likely bottom before commodities. Therefore one could argue that stocks are getting ready to turn back up as commodities turn down.

But I think we're due for a much more protracted bear market in stocks and commodities and both will decline together for a while. While I watch the intermarket relationships for guidance on long term market moves I trade each chart individually since we can easily get multi-month divergences between markets. The chart for the stock market looks lower, either from here or after a down-up sequence into May (similar to the retail sector I posted earlier). Commodities look like a topping pattern and therefore my expectation over the next several months is for both to drop together.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 12:45:57 PM

The A/D line just dropped and touched the same Keltner support that it tested and bounced from early this morning. That particular configuration has now risen to -245.70 with the A/D line having dropped to -247 a few minutes ago. It's at -158 as I type, trying to hold that support. As it is configured now, it looks strong enough to provide continued support, but we should start being less trusting of any setups these days.

Keene Little : 4/23/2008 12:45:15 PM

For a great example of a large sideways triangle playing out since January, take a look at the one for the retail SPDR, XRT: Link . It has remained inside its parallel down-channel and is forming a sideways triangle for what could be the 4th wave correction in the decline from June 2007.

The January low was exactly at the Fib projection at 28.62 where the 2nd leg down was 162% of the 1st leg down (the June-Aug leg down). The triangle pattern since then should get another leg up, as depicted, before finishing. So we could see a very good short play in this sector setting up later in May. In the meantime stay aware that the choppy environment we've been in will likely continue.

As for downside potential, once we get the next leg down, if it's to be a 5th wave (dark red wave count), it projects to 24.60. But if the pink wave count is correct, calling the sideways consolidation wave B, then wave C projects down to about 16.78 (two equal legs down from October. That would be about a 50% haircut from an expected $33 price at the end of the triangle.

The retail sector could very well be telling us what's going to happen in the broader market. I know a lot of people expect an election-year rally but I'm thinking there are going to be a lot of disappointed people this year.

Keene Little : 4/23/2008 12:26:05 PM

No bounce and it's unfortunately just another sign of the lousy trading environment in this market. The strong leg up this morning has once again received no follow through. This is getting old. As Linda just commented on the triangle pattern, and we're in some very large ones, these are horrible to trade. It just means much more patience is required while we wait for it to end.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 12:23:59 PM

The worst thing about triangles like this on the daily chart is that, eventually, as the triangles narrow down, it becomes difficult and sometimes even silly to try to predict even short-term direction as prices ping-pong back from the narrowing barriers.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 12:21:57 PM

Although the markets did make a surge higher they have retraced and NQ (NDX futures) is the only market trading outside its overnight range now. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 12:21:33 PM

If you take a look at a daily chart for the SPX, you see a nice little triangle setting up, all within Friday's range. I'm giving short-term guidance, but nothing beyond that because such triangles tend to be neutral consolidations and the eventual breakout direction out of them is unknown. We can presume, becuase it's forming on top of the rise off March's low, that prices will break to the upside, but that is a presumption. I try not to make any assumptions at all when I see a triangle like this.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 12:13:13 PM

If the 15-minute 9-ema's don't hold as support on 15-minute closes, as they may not, next potential support is 1378.20-1378.50 for the SPX and 636.80 for the OEX. Bulls definitely want this to hold.

Keene Little : 4/23/2008 12:11:55 PM

Got another leg down and now it fits well as a larger 3-wave pullback so it could be a good buying opportunity, but it needs to reverse higher from here (DOW 12770 area and SPX 1380 area).

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 11:55:49 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1382.42; the OEX's, 638.64.

Keene Little : 4/23/2008 11:48:20 AM

The pullback, espeically for NDX, looks like a little bull flag so even if it drops a little lower I'd be looking for more upside. Look to buy this rather than short it. But upside potential could be limited so don't fall in love with the trade.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 11:34:41 AM

Sideways movement over the last hour while the 15-minute 9-ema rises beneath it. That's one scenario that I mentioned in my 11:15:17 post as desirable for short-term bulls. It is desirable as long as the SPX finds support on 15-minute closes at that 15-minute 9-ema and then rises from it into a new high, breaking above that Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes at 1387.02. The 15-minute 9-ema is now 1381.76, and the OEX is 1384.41.

Keene Little : 4/23/2008 11:25:42 AM

Price has stalled but so far the pullback looks like just a correction which points us higher. but it means the pullback should be ending near here (slightly lower would be two equal legs down in the pullback) and start back up. The only problem, as far as trying to figure out where prices are heading, is that we're continuing to get 3-wave moves in each direction and that makes for a trendless market (i.e., chop).

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 11:23:45 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- U.S. gas refiners last week increased their production sharply, after operating at the lowest level since Hurricane Katrina in the previous week, a government report showed Wednesday. U.S. refineries operated at 85.6% of their operable capacity in the week ending April 18, up more than 4% from previous week's 81.4%, the Energy Information Administration reported. Refiners had slowed their production as their profits were crimped by hiking crude oil prices.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 11:23:05 AM

The VIX has been very useful this morning and helped us identify the bottom. It doesn?t always but it has a pretty good track record so far. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 11:15:17 AM

The SPX's potential resistance on 15-minute closes has risen to 1387.01, with the SPX currently below that. I don't know what's going to happen by the end of today, but this is why I warned to be watchful if the SPX popped above that descending trendline off Friday's high, that it could then stall at this Keltner resistance. Other than a pop through this resistance, what SPX bulls want to see now is sideways trading while the 15-minute 9-ema rises up beneath the SPX. That's now at 1379.45, with the SPX at 1385.72 as I type.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 10:54:27 AM

Here is a chart of the Euro/Bristish pound currency pair, the one I profiled yesterday. I use the daily charts for my Forex Swing trades and have my orders placed Order Send Order (OSO) so I do not have stay up all night monitoring it because once my entry is triggered my stop and limit are triggered as well. My long entry is above the highs made April 17th so I have a ways to go before I get into this trade. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 10:53:22 AM

The SPX's 30-minute chart is showing a potential target of 1390.41, so if the resistance now at 1386.82 on 15-minute closes does not hold, then I would start watching for next potential resistance at that higher 30-minute level. I would not count on that target being achieved, but I would have profit-protecting plans in place if it is, just in case.

As I type, the SPX is hesitating at/slightly above the descending trendline off Friday's high, just below that potential Keltner resistance on the 15-minute chart. The outcome is not known yet, at least in my opinion, and I'm trying to remain guarded about my expectations with the SPX still within Friday's range.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 10:43:34 AM

Out at target 12798. Love trades that go quickly.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 10:42:39 AM

A/D line just hitting a new high of the day.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 10:42:27 AM

stop to 12779 and locking in some profit.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 10:42:16 AM

The OEX is also approaching next Keltner potential resistance, at 640.14 on 15-minute closes. If the OEX pops above the descending trendline off Friday's high, as it appears to be doing as I type, watch for the possibility that it could stall at that Keltner resistance, if not at the trendline. I don't know whether that resistance will hold or not, but it's certainly a possibility.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 10:41:07 AM

High of 12790 so stop at least to breakeven.

Keene Little : 4/23/2008 10:40:51 AM

The same downtrend line for the DOW is at 12800 so both should be hit together.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 10:40:00 AM

Target is 12761 + 45 = 12806 but I will not make YM break the 12800 area so have it placed at 12798. I will be raising my stop again soon.

Keene Little : 4/23/2008 10:39:43 AM

SPX could find resistance at its downtrend line from Friday at 1385, 2 points higher.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 10:39:34 AM

As the SPX tests the high of the day, the A/D line hasn't quite done so. The divergence may mean nothing at all, but while the SPX is within this choppy zone within Friday's range and while it's rising to test the descending trendline off Friday's high, at just under 1385, I'm watching carefully.

The Keltner chart suggests next potential resistance a little higher than that descending trendline, at 1386.78 on 15-minute closes, so watch for the possibility of a pop over that trendline and then a stalling at that Keltner resistance. I don't know that is going to happen, but it's a possibility.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 10:39:18 AM

My stop is now at 12735.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 10:36:53 AM

Once YM breaks 12769 I will raise the stop to 12735 but it needs to break that swing high first.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 10:35:06 AM

I have a stop at 12716 so a 45 tick risk/reward profile.

Keene Little : 4/23/2008 10:32:58 AM

With the techs showing some relativel strength this morning I'm watching to see if it breaks above Monday's high near 1914. If it does then we could see a run up to its downtrend line from October, currently near 1946. Its 200-dma is slightly higher at 1959. But first it has to get through its broken uptrend line from October 2002 which is where price stopped on Monday (using log scale on this daily chart): Link

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 10:32:23 AM

That may be a little late.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 10:31:59 AM

I will be taking YM long at 12761.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 10:30:35 AM

The A/D line found support where Keltners said it might lie and now is bouncing. Link Whether that bounce will be sustained is unclear as yet, but if it is, that's good news for short-term bulls. Be particularly careful as the A/D line approaches the previous high of the day, 520.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 10:28:40 AM

TRIN is not telling us much today either at 0.99.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 10:27:32 AM

Bulls would really like to see the AD volume and AD line above 0 at least because without the AD line and volume partcipating we will continue to be choppy.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 10:25:55 AM

VIX is now testing daily highs so one would expect the S&P futures (ES) to do the same.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 10:19:57 AM

Another 15-minute close for the SPX above the 9-ema. We can at least note that. That's a tentative good sign for those hoping for a rise, but there's the resistance zone just ahead, now beginning at 1377.50 on 15-minute closes and extending up to about 1379 or perhaps a little under that.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 10:16:41 AM

Chop, unfortunately for those who want a trade today or, more unfortunately, for those caught in a trade and trying to will the markets to move.

James Brown : 4/23/2008 10:16:11 AM

Pretty clever... now they're calling it Gag-flation for gas and agriculture.

Yesterday there was some discussion on how the rise in gasoline this spring and summer will completely eliminate any benefit from the government's tax-rebate "stimulus" plan.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 10:09:53 AM

The S&P futures made a double bottom but the VIX did not telling me the double bottom will hold or at least any break will not have followthrough. VIx is heading down now confirming this analysis.

James Brown : 4/23/2008 10:06:05 AM

WellPoint (WLP) reported earnings this morning that missed estimates by 6 cents. The company also guided lower for 2008.

United Health (UNH) did the same thing yesterday. Missed and guided lower. Yet we're not seeing any follow through lower in the healthcare sector. The HMO index plunged toward the lows of its trading range yesterday and is actually trying to bounce this morning.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 10:05:49 AM

Ahead of the crude inventories report this morning, the TRAN is headed lower again, with a potential downside target of 4911.58-4923.55. Yesterday's low was 4921.80. Not all potential downside targets are met, and the TRAN has potential short-term trendline support a little higher, at about 4927. The TRAN sometimes rapidly switches direction after the inventories number but for now this isn't a good sign for the SPX, OEX and Dow. I like to use the TRAN as a sort of indicator index for those other indices. The TRAN is currently 4935.44.

James Brown : 4/23/2008 10:01:24 AM

The sell-off in gold has pulled the GDX gold-miner ETF down 3.2% to technical support at the 200-dma (around $46.25). If you were expecting a bounce I'd look for one here at the 200-dma or at the $45.00 mark.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 10:00:56 AM

As this next 15-minute period draws to a close, the SPX has maintained support on the close on its 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1375.40. It's rising up to challenge potential resistance on 15-minute closes near 1375.50 again. The A/D line is attempting a bounce from support, too, so we'll see how it goes, but I don't yet see a strong prediction of continued short-term strength.

James Brown : 4/23/2008 9:58:23 AM

Bond insurer Ambac Financial Group (ABK) is down sharply -29% to $4.27.

The company reported earnings this morning. Wall Street was expecting a loss of $1.51 a share. The company delivered a loss of $6.93.

ABK has been an OI put play for weeks and shares are hitting new all-time lows.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 9:55:48 AM

AD line is a neutral -284 and I think this is going to be another battle with no clear direction.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 9:55:08 AM

What happens next? I can only repeat what I said early yesterday. A close above about 1378.80 appears about as likely as a close down near the 10-sma and 72-ema, now ranging from 1361.72 to 1365.31. Oh, and anything in between is possible, too. That doesn't give much guidance, but it's all the charts are showing me right now.

James Brown : 4/23/2008 9:50:33 AM

United Parcel Service (UPS) reported earnings this morning. The company had already warned back on April 9th. This mornings results were inline with those adjusted numbers. The stock isn't moving much on the news, down just 15 cents.

The Dow Transportation average is down 0.4% and testing its two-month trendline of higher lows.

Keene Little : 4/23/2008 9:49:23 AM

Sure enough, the rally off the pre-market low did not hold and the drop from the cash open has been sharp. Now we'll see if the overnight lows hold (assuming they'll be tested).

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 9:46:17 AM

The A/D line drops heavily toward potential Keltner support now at about -330. It's at -153 as I type. Short-term bulls want that support to hold on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 9:45:33 AM

As the SPX's first 15-minute period draws toward a close, the resistance zone now from 1377.70-1379 appears to be holding. If there is now a further pullback--not a given yet--short-term bulls want to see 1374.94 hold as support on 15-minute closes.

Although the OEX is stronger by some Keltner measures, it's also pulling back strongly. Short-term bulls want 635.06 to hold as support on 15-minute closes.

James Brown : 4/23/2008 9:43:06 AM

VF Corp. (VFC) is down 2.88% to $75.61 after reporting earnings last night. The company beat estimates by 4 cents.

VFC has been bouncing around the $75.00-80.00 zone for weeks. While the selling is picking up speed watch for a potential bounce near $75.00.

James Brown : 4/23/2008 9:40:15 AM

I see Jane and Keene already talking about Gold today. The GLD ETF is down 1.8% to $88.73 and trading near its 100-dma. The MACD on the daily chart just confirmed a new sell signal. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for the GLD points to a $79 target. Coincidentally the 200-dma is near $80.00.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 9:37:18 AM

I neglected to mention in my 9:30:32 post that those resistance levels were potential resistance on 15- and 30-minute closes. So far, of course, the SPX is well above those first potential resistance levels. What does the A/D line say about the potential to fall back or climb further?

Unfortunately, not much. At +509 as I type, the A/D line is stranded well away from next potential Keltner support, now at -320 and next potential Keltner resistance, now at +1191. It's in the bullish or upper half of the Keltner channels this morning, but RSI is already at 92.67. RSI sometimes does trend for a while, perhaps up to a day, on the 15-minute chart, so this can't be taken as a definite signal that the A/D line will turn lower, but it certainly issues a warning to watch for that possibility. And, as I typed this post, the A/D line dropped to +413.

James Brown : 4/23/2008 9:35:59 AM

Ouch! Daktronics (DAKT) is down 22.8% to $14.57 after issuing an earnings warning this morning. Company sees earnings in the 5-to-9 cents a share versus estimates of 19 cents.

James Brown : 4/23/2008 9:31:34 AM

Dept. of Energy is due to release the weekly oil inventory numbers at 10:30 a.m. ET. The market expects a build of 1.5 million barrels of oil.

Linda Piazza : 4/23/2008 9:30:32 AM

The SPX's daily chart shows the SPX contained within last Friday's range, with that range between a long-term descending trendline that now crosses at 1380 or about 1415, depending on the version (best fit or along candle shadows) and the 72-ema now at 1365. Anything that says within that range and particularly within last Friday's range, is consolidation.

Futures are higher this morning, so the SPX may begin moving up within that range. Where's resistance? One possibility might be the 1377.60-1378.80-ish range, perhaps extending up to 1379.60 or so. Barring a strong surge, watch for potential resistance in that area and then we'll see how internals look.

Keene Little : 4/23/2008 9:29:55 AM

The sharp selloff in equity futures into the 7:10 AM low has been largely reversed but once again I have to wonder about the rally off the low. It's relatively easy to force the futures higher which is why I call them "manufactured" rallies. They tend not to hold once the cash market opens. A retest of the overnight lows (ES 1373.50/YM 12685) would be typical.

Gold dropped during overnight trading the same as equities but it has not been reversed. This is another sign that the equity rally may not hold. Gold's pattern is pointing much lower--the apex of the triangle pattern from last Nov-Dec is near 800 and two equal legs down from the March high is at 794. June contract daily chart (30 min delayed and currently trading 905): Link

James Brown : 4/23/2008 9:27:30 AM

Last year, Delta Airlines (DAL) lost $130 million during the first quarter of 2007.

This year DAL lost $6.4 billion during the first quarter.

DAL reported earnings today and missed estimates by 18 cents. The loss was $0.69 a share. To cut back DAL is eliminating 15 to 20 mainline jets and 60 to 70 regional aircraft by the end of 2008.

Airlines got hammered yesterday on the United Airlines earnings so DAL is not seeing much selling in the pre-market in spite of this news.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 9:22:35 AM

Markets go up and Markets do down, this is about the only guarantee you have in this game. Once a market hits resistance you expect it to retrace and take another run at it. If that retracement makes what we call higher low then you know the bulls are getting stronger and the next push into resistance may be the one to break through.

Once SPX made a bottom it attempted to break through resistance (April 7th), it retraced and made a higher low. Its 2nd try was made Friday, April 18th so you now one would expect it to retrace, make another higher low and take another stab at it. Well the bears have not been quite strong enough to bring the SPX down to a discernable swing low yet the bulls have not been strong enough to break resistance.

Today could be the day we have a new swing low made or the day the bulls are able to break resistance. I expect it to be another bloody battle with no direction. Link

James Brown : 4/23/2008 9:21:12 AM

Boeing (BA) could be a leader today. The company reported earnings this morning. Wall Street expected a profit of $1.35 a share. BA beat those estimates by 26 cents but missed the revenue number.

BA closed at $78.56 last night and is trading at $80.30 in the pre-market. The $80.00 mark has been resistance in the past so a rally past $80.00 might be a bullish entry point.

James Brown : 4/23/2008 9:18:19 AM

In case you missed the headlines last night, Yahoo (YHOO) reported earnings and beat estimates by 2 cents. The company also raised their guidance going forward.

YHOO closed at $28.54 last night and appears to be trading down near $28.26 this morning.

MSFT has been pretty adamant that the results will not change their bid for YHOO.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 9:13:42 AM

My Crude chart NOW has the fib lines on it.

James Brown : 4/23/2008 9:13:34 AM

Broadcom (BRCM) reported earnings last night. The company missed estimates by 14 cents but guided revenues higher for the next quarter.

The stock closed at $23.55 yesterday and is trading up around $25.60 this morning.

The $25.00 level has been resistance in the past.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 9:13:18 AM

I have taken all trendlines off the Crude chart and left only the FIB lines. The rally from $85 was stopped at $111 and retraced 50% to 98-100. So I expect the rally from 98-100 to retrace 50% which is the 108-109 area. The MACD is also telling me this is a very good possibility. Once Crude gets back to this zone I will be watching for signs of support and will be a buyer of Crude once again. I certainly will not be a buyer at 117. Link

James Brown : 4/23/2008 9:09:15 AM

BP saying that they may have to shutdown their North Sea oil pipeline as they face a potential worker strike.

James Brown : 4/23/2008 9:31:56 AM

crude oil currently down 75 cents to $115.20. (this was Brent Sea crude and not the June spot contract)

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 9:05:11 AM

Gold is retesting support at $900/oz area and all Gold bugs expect it to hold and if not then we all expect the $850/oz support to hold. I view any selloff in Gold to be a buying opportunity. Link

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 9:02:24 AM

Here are your overnight charts. How many times in the last few weeks have we seen this pattern. This is a classic struggle between the bulls and the bears and although I looks like the bears were starting to win around 7:30EDT the bulls were able to stop the selling and reverse the direction. The NDX futures (NQ) has almost made it back to overnight highs. Link

Jane Fox : 4/23/2008 8:50:27 AM

Dateline WSJ - Internet giant eBay Inc. said it filed suit against Craigslist's directors for allegedly unfairly diluting its interest in the classified-listings Web site. said in a statement.

The suit was filed Tuesday in Delaware's Court of Chancery against the two directors of San Francisco-based Craigslist: founder Craig Newmark and CEO Jim Buckmaster. Since eBay said it filed the suit under seal because of some confidentiality issues, details of the case were not revealed. said in a statement.

But in a press release, officials of San Jose, Calif.-based eBay said Messrs. Newmark and Buckmaster in January of this year had adopted measures that diluted eBay's economic interest in Craigslist. EBay acquired a 28.4% stake in Craigslist for an undisclosed sum in 2004. Since 2004, "we have acted openly and in good faith as a minority shareholder, so we were surprised by these recent unilateral action," Mike Jacobson, eBay senior vice president and general counsel, said in a statement.

Craigslist officials declined an immediate comment

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