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OI Technical Staff : 4/25/2008 9:59:59 PM

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Keene Little : 4/25/2008 3:59:16 PM

Back to an arithmetic scale for NDX shows price parked right up underneath the October downtrend line. But is that a hanging man doji I see at resistance? Bulls need a gap up and run higher on Monday to negate it and bears need a red candle on Monday to confirm the reversal pattern setup. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 3:53:05 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1393.42; the OEX's, 643.13.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2008 3:55:44 PM

Well, I've got to run. Have a 5:30 - 8:15 PM appointment with this big gobbler that has been giving us the run around the last few days.

Nice pop in YRCW today, so will take some profits.

Top off the diesel tanks if you can for this summer.

From St. Francis to Smith Center, road diesel running $3.89 - $4.25.

Farm about $0.50 cheaper, but main concern for farmers right now. That and rain.

Valero refinery in Phillipsburg full of product, but oil prices driving fuel.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2008 3:46:17 PM

Corn is somewhat late getting planted. Fields have been muddy. Some winds this week, and short t-storms do find some windows to plant. Need to get the crops in soon!

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2008 3:42:00 PM

The spring wheat crop here in NW and NC Kansas looks very healthy and spring moisture has been beneficial for sure. Should summer find some moisture and things not burn up, should be a bumper crop by early to mid-July.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 3:42:00 PM

Market-on-close orders will be visible to big money in a few minutes and that could change the tenor of trading. If you're short-term bullish and don't intend to carry your trades over the weekend, be sure you're snugging up your stops underneath the SPX. Think about putting in your orders soon.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2008 3:39:56 PM

Dow Jones Trucking Index (DJUSTK) 354.52 +0.94% ... Has retraced just more than 80.9% (365.03) of its 4/25/07 high to recent 1/08/08 low.

Keene Little : 4/25/2008 3:34:24 PM

Actually this daily chart of the VIX is the right one: Link . The trend lines fit better on this one with the arithmetic scale.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2008 3:29:01 PM

Swing trade call exit partial alert! ... for one half of the YRC Worldwide YRCW May $12.50 Calls (YRX-EV) position at the bid of $4.50.

YRCW $16.89 +30.32% ...

Keene Little : 4/25/2008 3:28:44 PM

VIX is back down to its uptrend line from December 2006 and ISEE data shows high call volume all day today. It's just a little too much bullish sentiment for me especially if this push higher is primarily to get the green candle for the week (which may not hold next week). I'll take home a couple of put options (June so as to avoid time decay over the weekend) just in case. VIX daily chart: Link

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 3:20:45 PM

Short-term bulls who do not intend to stay in their trades over the weekend need to be cinching up your stops underneath the SPX, letting a downturn that gets too big take you out.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 3:19:49 PM

Next target and potential resistance for the SPX on 15-minute closes is now 1399.16. Yesterday's high was 1397.72, with the SPX having so far this afternoon reached a high of 1397.72. The race is on.

Keene Little : 4/25/2008 3:18:11 PM

Can you update the USO chart that you showed yesterday with today's price action? I want to see what has changed, if anything.

For those of us looking to play oil on the short side, it's testing our patience, and stops. Today's bounce in oil (again, unconfirmed with a bounce to a new high in oil stocks) has USO testing its previous high on Tuesday (but is back below it). It rallied back up to test its broken uptrend line from the April 1st low and is now back under the parallel uptrend line from the April 2nd low. Link

It's certainly possible we'll see USO push up for another retest but the negative divergences suggest the retests will ultimately fail. Depending on your time horizon for your trade, and how much pain you're willing to take, I still think the July 90 puts are a good play here. I think upside risk is to 98.62 which is where the move up from February would have two equal legs up. That's about $2 higher than today's high.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 3:14:17 PM

The drive to close the week with the SPX above 1400 is alive and well. Can it do it? Sure it can, but I'm not sure it will.

Keene Little : 4/25/2008 3:08:33 PM

The market is not rolling over at resistance and even though the buying is showing loss of momentum on the short term charts it probably doesn't matter. There only needs to be enough buyers to keep pushing it a little higher to keep the shorts away. Big institutions have a vested interest in seeing the markets close in the green today and get a positive close for the week.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 3:06:31 PM

Current upside target and next resistance on 15-minute closes is 1398.45 for the SPX, 646.83 for the OEX. Don't count on these being reached, but do factor in vulnerability to those levels in your trading decisions.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 3:03:33 PM

It will soon be time to start thinking about end-of-day and end-of-week trading decisions. Although earnings announcements slow down next week, economic releases heat up and we've got the FOMC meeting, of course. With Consumer Confidence on Tuesday; GDP, Chicago PMI and the FOMC decision on Wednesday, the beginning of the week offers lots of opportunities to provide the market with a jolt that sends equities one direction or another. Only, which direction?

Barring a strong move into the close, the SPX's weekly candle will likely be a small-bodied long-legged candle below the weekly 72-ema and 30-sma. That indicates indecision after last week's strong gain. If this candle's body were just a little higher, if this week's open had been a little above last week's close, the candle would have looked more like a classic potential reversal signal. For now, it edges toward that classic potential reversal signal, with a bit of a whiff of just-indecision. Of course, any potential reversal signal is only realized after the next candle is one that shows a strong decline, so next week would have to open near the current levels and end well below them to confirm that.

The daily charts, traditional and Keltner, still suggest that it's as likely that the SPX will climb toward 1407-1417 as it is that it will decline toward 1366-1370. Not much preference is given to one or the other. If I had a particular bias, I'd be able to point to this thing or that thing and give that direction a preference, but in truth the charts just aren't showing much preference yet for one or the other.

Keene Little : 4/25/2008 2:44:23 PM

There's some Fib correlation near NDX 1913 for a high for its bounce today so watch for a potential rollover from there (or at any time from here).

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 2:38:26 PM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1388.60; the OEX's, 641.09. Bulls want to see a pattern of prices bouncing from that rising support on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 2:29:39 PM

That successful SPX retest of the former bull flag's resistance, to see if it now holds as support, won't truly be successful until and unless the SPX heads above yesterday's high. It hasn't happened yet, of course, and I don't know that I believe it will. There's just nothing to trust in any setup this afternoon.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 2:14:28 PM

Now that the SPX has cleared the 15-minute 9-ema, it's risen to test next potential resistance at its current 1390.25 level. If it can get past this, it will then create a potential upside target near 1397.90. It must, however, maintain 15-minute closes above a rising 9-ema, now at 1387.55, on pullbacks to maintain that upside target.

And now that I've said all that, I'll say that I wouldn't be entering any trade based on that evidence, not at the end of a day like today at the end of a week like this week, not when I'm looking at prices that have charged just about anywhere and everywhere, no matter what the evidence at any one given time.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 2:05:57 PM

Hmmm.... as much as I believe that Garmin (GRMN), the maker of GPS devices, will hit new lows again this year, the stock is starting to look bullish after forming a short-term bottom. I could see the stock rising to $50.00 before hitting resistance. Currently down 42 cents to $45.67. chart: Link

Keene Little : 4/25/2008 2:03:28 PM

The 2nd leg up is starting so now watch for where we'll have two equal legs up today--DOW 12830 and SPX 1391.76. If this is going to be simply a correction of this morning's decline before heading lower again, those levels could be the top of the bounce.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 2:00:37 PM

The RLX retail index is still inching higher although Wal-Mart (WMT) is pulling back from its highs and is now negative.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2008 1:43:35 PM

Crude now up to 119.55/bl. Geesh it looks like it will take $120.00/bl before it retreats. I remember hearing an analyst say he thought Crude could hit $120/bl this year and I thought he was smoking something.

Keene Little : 4/25/2008 1:42:33 PM

The pullback from the mid-day high looks corrective and has me thinking we'll see another leg up in the bounce off this morning's low. SPX in the green, maybe even the DOW, for today's close. That's my prediction.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2008 1:41:44 PM

The VIX is kind of moving down and AD volume is kind of moving up so this is kind of bullish but certainly not enough to try any long positions I'm afraid. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 1:01:32 PM

I'm studying charts, everything from 15-minute up through daily and 3-day charts, an interval I like to study, and there's just no prediction to be found on any of them about next direction. The 30-minute chart does say this: if support now at 1383.16 and particularly the support now near 1380 are lost on 30-minute closes, a trip down to 1370 to test the confirmation level of the potential double top is possible. What it doesn't suggest is whether that support is likely to be lost or whether the SPX is more likely to break up through resistance (on 30-minute closes) now at 1387.26.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 12:57:35 PM

I'm not disagreeing with anyone here but the 30-minute DJIA chart is giving me a little bit of hope to be optimistic here... Link

Keene Little : 4/25/2008 12:57:18 PM

The DOW losing 2000 points, eh? Well that would certainly be the 3rd or big c-wave down that I'm expecting for the market. It's called the recognition wave when most have an ah-ha moment about the weakness in the economy (and therefore market).

Jane Fox : 4/25/2008 12:57:08 PM

Here is McMillan's weekly update. - How many times can $SPX rally into the 1390-1400 area, only to fail again and again? Since the first of this year, $SPX has probed up into that area at least 10 times -- five of them in the last week -- and yet to date there has been no upside breakout over that formidable resistance area.

The $SPX chart is neutral at this point. The overhead resistance is bearish, but the uptrend that has been in place since the March bottom is bullish. So one or the other will have to give way soon, as they are converging on each other. Technically, a close above 1400 would be bullish, while a close below 1330 would indicate a retest of the market's lows.

The equity-only put-call ratios are bullish, as they continue to decline (Figures 2 & 3). This is an important intermediate-term indicator that has been bullish for quite some time. The fact that $SPX can't seem to break out on the upside to confirm the put-call ratios' bullishness is something of a negative divergence. In fact, it's possible that $SPX could continue to stall in this area, while the put-call ratios eventually fall to the lower levels on their charts and generate sell signals.

Market breadth has turned negative again, as another round of sell signals was generated this past Tuesday. The volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) continue to decline, and that's bullish. $VIX is currently near 20, and it would have to rise above 23 and perhaps even 24 to reverse the current bullish scenario.

In summary, the signals are mixed, with the equity-only put-call ratios and $VIX chart being bullish, breadth being negative, and $SPX showing overhead resistance. The price movement of $SPX will, of course, be the final arbiter. If the upside breakout occurs, then one must be in long positions.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 12:53:44 PM

on CNBC...guest technical analyst Steve Frenkel is saying the markets have actually produced a sell signal and expects the market to turn lower next week (next five days) where the DJIA could lose 2,000 points.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 12:44:13 PM

The A/D line has set another downside target near -582. It's currently -246.

Keene Little : 4/25/2008 12:40:35 PM

The confluence of trend lines for the DOW in the 12840-12940 area is just too much for the bulls right now. There are the broken uptrend lines from October 2002 and March 2003, the downtrend line from October 2007, the top of its rising wedge pattern for the rally off the March low and the top of a parallel up-channel for price action since January all crossing through this 100-point area: Link

The bulls will look at this and see consolidation under resistance and getting ready to bust a move to the upside. The bears see this is clear resistance to short against. I wouldn't want to bet the long side yet but would become more bullish if the DOW can punch up through 13100 (to clear the last hurdle--its 200-dma at 13071). I do see the possibility for a pullback and then one more stab at a new high for the bounce but not if the DOW breaks below 12500.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 12:08:54 PM

The USDJPY dropped heavily when equities were dropping, having bounced from its 103.89 low.

Keene Little : 4/25/2008 12:04:41 PM

While oil is rallying to a new high today oil stocks are not and that's bearish non-confirmation for the oil rally (last gasp for oil is what I'm thinking). Commodity stocks generally lead the commodity itself. OIX has bounced off yesterday's low but looks very corrective and should continue lower once the bounce finishes.

I had recommended a short play on oil stocks on Wednesday against that day's high and I had shown the daily chart using the log scale because it showed the broken uptrend line from August as resistance: Link

What's interesting is to now look at the chart with the arithmetic scale and you can see today's rally stopped at that same trend line: Link . So you can see the value of switching back and forth (if you like using longer term trend lines as I do) to double check where support and resistance might be found.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 11:56:08 AM

Those hoping that nothing more than a retest of the bull flag's former resistance is going on this morning have been granted their SPX bounce from that former resistance, joined with Keltner support now at 1380.48. The real test, though, is whether the bounce can be sustained. The SPX approaches several potential Keltner resistance levels, up to about 1387.20.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 11:54:12 AM

The A/D line did find support on 15-minute closes on that Keltner line now at -558.84, and is rising. It's -311 as I type, rising into potential resistance that begins at about -150.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2008 11:48:13 AM

Crude reached a new high today, $119.38/bl.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2008 11:46:39 AM

Interestingly the Russell 2000 futures (ER2) is the only market to remain in its overnight range, although the S&P futures (ES) has done a nice job of returning back to that range once it dipped below its ON lows. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 11:31:47 AM

The A/D line not only hit but also slightly exceeded its downside target. That potential support on 15-minute closes is now -542 with the A/D line now -566. The A/D line sometimes overruns that a bit, so although it's closing that 15-minute period below that support, there's a chance it's still essentially holding.

Keene Little : 4/25/2008 11:31:00 AM

Yesterday NDX did a perfect tap against its downtrend line from October (using log scale) and has now dropped back down below its broken uptrend line from October 2002. There is still the potential for a choppy continuation higher but I sure wouldn't want to be betting on the long side here. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 11:16:58 AM

Watch for potential support now near 1380.28 on 15-minute closes for the SPX and near 637.89 for the OEX. As I said last night and again this morning, those hoping for further climbs don't want to see these indices maintain values much below those.

Keene Little : 4/25/2008 11:15:31 AM

The Transports just pushed to a new high (by pennies) above last Friday's 5104.82 high. It had dropped from that high this week to its uptrend line from March and now looks like it should push up to at least its Fib projection at 5147 or slightly higher to its broken uptrend line from March 2003 near 5180. It's also forming a potential rising wedge (with the overlapping highs and lows inside it) for its rally off the March low with confirming bearish divergence. Link

If the TRAN can get above 5200 it should be able to make it up to 5300 but I continue to believe the Trannies will be topping out soon. Above 5300 (the top of a parallel up-channel for price action since January) would turn me more bullish.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 11:10:28 AM

The 15-minute 9-ema continues to hold as resistance on 15-minute closes for the SPX. That's now 1389.89. For the OEX, it's 642.54. However, so far, the 45-ema continues to hold as support on 15-minute closes. That's 1386.75 for the SPX and 641.64 for the OEX, with the OEX slightly below that as I type. So which will eventually break? RSI is 42.58, fluttering near the neutral 50-ish area. Not a clue is offered here.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2008 11:10:18 AM

Most say there are no guarantees in the market but I disagree. I guarantee you the market will be choppy and non-directional more than 50% of the time.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2008 11:10:57 AM

This chart of the internals is actually pretty funny. I mean how non-directional can you get?

I don't like saying day after day after day the market is choppy, the market is non-directional but so many days are just that, choppy and non-directional. As a matter of fact that is the norm and the directional days are the exception. This is the way the market has always been and will probably always be. Link

James Brown : 4/25/2008 11:06:37 AM

Oil higher because...

CNBC reporting that a U.S. ship (contracted by the U.S. military) has fired upon an Iranian boat...


25 Apr 2008 14:54:15 GMT
Source: Reuters
WASHINGTON, April 25 (Reuters) - A ship contracted by the U.S Military Sealift Command has fired at least one shot toward an Iranian boat, a U.S. defense official said on Friday.

"It was an MSC vessel," the official said, confirming the ship fired on an Iranian boat.

Other details were not immediately available.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 11:01:27 AM

It's difficult to find anything that makes any prediction about next direction, either on short-term or daily charts. The A/D line still maintains a downside target now at -493, but it's coiling beneath the next resistance, so what's to say it doesn't break back above that resistance again? That resistance is now at about +24 on 15-minute closes, with the A/D line now -113. Based on this slim evidence, though, factor in the possibility that the A/D line could drop toward that target without counting on it happening.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 10:57:54 AM

Oil still trading higher... +3.17 to $119.23.

The USO has spiked to $95.97.

Keene Little : 4/25/2008 10:47:37 AM

The banks have been relatively strong since Wednesday but so far the rally has only managed to get the index (BIX) up to its downtrend line from October (using log scale on the daily chart): Link

It's currently at its 50-dma which has stopped the rallies on the past multiple attempts, including February (once it dropped back below that average in early Feb). The BIX is currently trading at 246 and if it can get slightly higher it will run into the top of its potential descending wedge pattern, currently near 257. But I'm thinking the banks might have topped out today.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 10:45:46 AM

Seeing some short-term bearish signals developing in First Solar (FSLR). The stock has been very overbought with the rally from $200 to $300.

One analyst firm is really sticking their neck out this morning by raising their price target from $216 to $250.

FSLR is down $4.55 to $279.06. Earnings are expected next week on April 30th.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 10:44:55 AM

The SPX was being pressured back toward 1386-1387 by continued 15-minute closes beneath resistance now at 1390.47. What's next? That's the real question. The possibility of another bounce up to test the 1390.47 potential resistance is possible, but so is a move down toward 1380.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 10:42:08 AM

Columbia Sportswear (COLM) may be setting up for a bearish play.

The company reported earnings that beat estimates by 4 cents but management issued an earnings warning for the second quarter.

A drop under support at $40.00 could be an entry point for a run toward the lows near $35.00.

chart: Link

James Brown : 4/25/2008 10:36:35 AM

There are competing analyst opinions on BIDU.

This morning one firm upgraded their view and raised their price target to $420.

Now another firm is downgrading the stock to a "sell" but adjusting their price target higher from $255 to $290.

BIDU is still up 6% to $362.87.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 10:36:47 AM

So far, the SPX is indeed finding resistance on 15-minute closes at its 15-minute 9-ema, now at about 1391.10, but what happens next?

James Brown : 4/25/2008 10:33:50 AM

Shares of trucking company YRC Worldwide (YRCW), the old Yellow Roadway, are up sharply trading near $17.00 (+30%) following its earnings report.

The company MISSED by 52 cents with a loss of 77 cents per share. Revenues were down 4.1%. Company issued guidance that was basically inline with analyst estimates.

So what's driving the move? Positive comments from management. Here's an excerpt from their press release:

"The soft economy, severe winter weather and record fuel prices created a very difficult operating environment in the first quarter," stated Bill Zollars, Chairman, President and CEO of YRC Worldwide. "With that said, we have taken a number of actions that address the areas within our control and we are seeing benefits from those efforts. Despite the macroeconomic challenges that we are facing, we believe that we have turned the corner and expect meaningful earnings improvement starting with the current quarter," Zollars continued.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 10:28:20 AM

Mining equipment provider Bucyrus (BUCY) is up 3.9% following its earnings report. The company beat estimates by 12 cents.

This news is not having much impact on OI call play JOYG.

Keene Little : 4/25/2008 10:24:09 AM

SPX is the stronger index this morning but with price pulling back and MACD curling back over it's going to leave a bearish divergence on the 60-min chart at the double top against last Friday's high: Link . But so far the pullback is a 3-wave move and therefore only a correction to the rally if the bulls can drive this back up to a new daily high.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 10:19:06 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1390.93, and that's potential resistance on 15-minute closes, with next potential resistance at 1394.60. Bulls want the SPX to break through these levels; bears want them to hold as resistance on those closes. What do I think? I think there's a possibility they will hold. At any other time, I'd call it a probability that they would hold, pressuring the SPX down toward 1385-1386, at least, but this is not any other time and I can't emphasize enough how strangely markets behave lately with respect to the usual guidelines we use.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 10:16:49 AM

Moody's has downgraded GM's credit outlook from stable to negative. According to Reuters a "negative outlook" suggests that GM's rating will probably be cut some time over the next 12 to 18 months.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 10:16:20 AM

The TRAN is currently bouncing strongly, not far off its day's high. Its pattern today has been extremely volatile, however, with 30-point swings at least within each 15-minute period. I'm tempted to say that such volatility is often indicative of topping action, but the TRAN, like the SOX, can be a bit of a trickster. It tends to go fast in whichever direction it's headed. I like to watch the TRAN as a sort of indicator index for the SPX, OEX and Dow, but I'm really not sure what it's saying right now.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2008 10:14:32 AM

Geesh this resistance on the daily SPX chart seems like it will never break but I assure you it will. Maybe not before another retracement but it will break. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 10:12:54 AM

As I mentioned last night, although it will do damage to short-term bullish trades, an SPX retest of the descending trendline off Friday's high, now converging with potential Keltner support on 15-minute closes at about 1379.72, would be a natural and normal thing to have happen. If the SPX gets much lower than that, though, something else is going on and it risks confirming a double-top formation (Friday's and yesterday's high, although yesterday's was just slightly higher, of course). The rub for bulls is that they won't know until that test, if it occurs, what the result will be. You just have to adhere to your stops. You have no other choice. If you've ever been trapped in a bad trade and then finally exited it, only to realize how many other profitable trades you'd missed while wrangling to avoid taking a loss, you'd know how valid it is to adhere to the plan you had for your stops when you entered the trade.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 10:12:31 AM

Altria Group (MO) is down 5.5% following earnings that were only inline with expectations. Shares definitely appear to have broken their long-term multi-year up trend in the last few weeks.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2008 10:09:42 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- High fuel and food prices, coupled with "shrinking" income gains and falling home values pulled down consumer sentiment in April, according to a Friday report. The U.S. consumer sentiment index declined to 62.6 in April -- the lowest level in 26 years -- from 69.5 in March, according to a Friday report from University of Michigan/Reuters. An earlier estimate for April was 63.2. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a final April result of 63.0. The expectations index fell to 53.3 - the lowest level since November 1990 -- from 60.1 in March.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 10:08:25 AM

I'm actually surprised that the SPX isn't lower, given the A/D line action. I'd have expected the SPX to be near 1379.72 potential support (Keltner and bull-flag upper trendling) with the A/D line dropping so deeply. It's now -275, dropping quickly toward next support that's now -473. The SPX is dropping into a test of 1385-1386 potential support rather than that lower support.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2008 10:06:59 AM

AD line has now fallen to -247.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 10:05:35 AM

Here's the potential A/D line support I was mentioning: Link Note the next potential support near -450, but also note that if the A/D line does climb, it now faces a thicket of potential resistance lines.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 10:03:41 AM

Swedish communication equipment company Ericsson (ERIC) is soaring 14.5% on a positive earnings report this morning. Shares popped right to resistance at $25.00 and are just hovering there.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 10:03:22 AM

The A/D line drops sharply, and is not approaching the benchmark central basis line, possible support on 15-minute closes, at about 30, with the A/D line now at -8.00. This is a point to watch for a possible bounce. However, we don't know how strong a bounce would be. If there is no bounce, next support is near -448, but I would watch for that bounce potential.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 10:05:54 AM

The Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 62.6 (final reading for April). The March reading was 69.5.

More consumers are reporting a weaker financial situation since 1982.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 10:01:18 AM

Potential resistance for the SPX on 15-minute closes is at the 9-ema now at 1392.13 and then 1394.48. Potential support on 15-minute closes is now at 1386.25-1387.49.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2008 9:57:37 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures rose over 1% Friday, rebounding after their sharp decline in the previous session, with prices underpinned by concerns about oil supply disruptions in Nigeria and the United Kingdom. Crude oil for June delivery gained $1.59 at $117.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

On Thursday, oil futures fell $2.24, or 1.9%, to settle at $116.06 a barrel.

"Oil early this morning was substantially lower on the stronger dollar," said Phil Flynn, vice president of futures brokerage Alaron Trading. "That all changed with some news from Nigeria."

The news raised "concerns going into the weekend that we might see more attacks on Nigerian oil," Flynn said.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 9:55:16 AM

Semiconductor stock KLAC is breaking out over resistance near $45.00 following last night's earnings report, where the company beat estimates by 4 cents.

The P&F chart is bullish but the stock is facing a P&F resistance trendline near $47

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 9:53:20 AM

The OEX has potential resistance on 15-minute closes at its 9-ema, now at 644.56, and higher, at 645.23. Potential support is currently 641.68 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 9:51:28 AM

The RUT just dropped into a new low for the day, although by only a little so far.

Keene Little : 4/25/2008 9:51:12 AM

So far no follow through to the upside and techs are in fact the weakest link this morning. SPX is holding up the best but will need techs to turn around to get this market back up.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 9:49:47 AM

Although the SPX closed the first 15-minute period above the potential resistance that was then at 1394.31 on 15-minute closes, it's back below it again. That level is up to 1395.52 on the 30-minute chart, so on 30-minute closes. The A/D line, however, leaped up to next resistance, now at 1122.59 and has since fallen back sharply. It's 810 as I type.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2008 9:49:42 AM

But unfortunately the VIX is now testing daily highs as the ES - S&P futures are making new daily lows.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 9:48:58 AM

The XBD broker-dealer index is up again, +2.2%, following yesterday's gains.

GS is up 1.7% and challenging its 200-ema.
LEH is up 4.1% and breaking out over its 50-dma but nearing resistance at the $50.00 level.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2008 9:48:19 AM

VIX made a new daily high confirming the S&P futures new daily high.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 9:47:45 AM

Last night, something happened for the first time ever in Japan: trading in government bond futures was suspended for a time. Those bonds were undergoing what a Reuter's article termed "one of the worse sell-offs in the past decade." The money was put to work in equities, apparently.

Last night in the Wrap, I mentioned the changing world view that our Fed is likely to ease by only a quarter point and then include in the accompanying statement some hint that there will then be a pause. Market pundits no longer believe the Fed will keep easing, bringing our key rate down to about 1 percent. That changing world view has probably been responsible for the climb in the USDJPY, too, as currency traders reposition trades that had presupposed an ever-weakening U.S. dollar.

However, other forces will be at work in the currency market, too, as well as the Japanese bond market. This week, inflation figures have shown that rising energy costs may impact inflation, making it difficult for the Bank of Japan to lower rates at all. The balancing of the dollar against the yen may yet undergo several permutations.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 9:46:27 AM

WMT is up five out of the last six weeks with gains four weeks in a row.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 9:45:25 AM

Merrill Lynch (MER) has upgraded shares of Wal-Mart (WMT) to a "buy" from a "hold".

WMT is trading higher near $58.00, a new 3-year high. The RLX retail index is up 1.7%

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 9:39:16 AM

As I type, the SPX is back to potential Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes, now pushed higher by the first climb, at about 1394. The SPX is 1393.61 as I type. There's still lots of time in this first 15-minute period, however, but since charts were set up to show a stall here before we determine what happens next, I'm not surprised by the current pullback off the high. I thought last night that the SPX might drop a little lower before it pushed up into this what-happens-next-zone, but markets behave unpredictably these days.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2008 9:38:50 AM

AD line is +783 bullish but certainly not overly so.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 9:36:40 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line opens and climbs this morning, but it's climbing into potential resistance on 15-minute closes at about 814. The A/D line is currently above that, at 848, but is already well off its day's high, and could still drop back to that level by the end of the first 15-minute period. If it doesn't, the next potential target and potentially strong resistance is at about 1010.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 9:35:43 AM

The Chinese markets were down fractionally last night. The Japanese market was up a strong 2.3%.

European stock markets are all trading higher today. The French CAC 40 is up 1.4%. The German DAX is up 1.7%. The London FTSE is only up 0.5%. The rest of the continent is following suit.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 9:34:37 AM

The chart setup on the SPX's 15-minute and 30-minute charts show a possibility but not proof that the SPX could soon stall in its climb, so be watchful. It's only after that, that we'll get the real reaction. Remember that we have consumer sentiment at 10:00 am ET.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 9:31:10 AM

Thanks, Denise, for pointing out that I had typed in 1494-1496.50 instead of 1394-1396.50 in my post. It's corrected now.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 9:30:47 AM

The USO oil ETF is poised to spike higher from $93.20 to close to $95.00 this morning...

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 9:31:22 AM

SPX futures were about 6 points above fair value. If the cash markets climb in accordance with futures' values, which they of course don't always do, that would bring the SPX up into the 1394-1396.50 next resistance range seen on the 30-minute chart and up to test potential resistance on 15-minute closes that's currently at 1393.52 but which will certainly get pushed a little higher if the early move is a strong push higher. In other words, look for possible first resistance in the 1394-1396.50 zone and keep an open mind about what might happen after that's tested.

Keene Little : 4/25/2008 9:26:13 AM

Equity futures did a steady climb off their lows near 11:00 PM so it certainly looks more bullish than one of those spikes to the upside from 6:00 AM. But with MSFT still down this morning and the potential sell signal in semis, it should be interesting morning. Tech futures (NQ) have retraced just over 50% of yesterday afternoon's drop. ES is closest to testing yesterday's high. Obviously the bulls will want to see some follow through once the cash market opens since the risk is for a gap n crap.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 9:25:49 AM

Sohu.com, another Chinese Internet stock, is poised to gap higher above $60.00 (closed at $58.00) after seeing its price target raised to $68.00. Shares appear to have potential resistance in the $63.50-65.00 zone. Short interest is about 13% of the 20.5 million-share float.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 9:23:40 AM

Chinese search engine Baidu.com (BIDU) is up about $18 to $360 following last night's earnings report. The results were only inline but at least one firm is upgrading the stock and raising their price target from $375 to $420.

Linda Piazza : 4/25/2008 9:23:13 AM

The USDJPY punched to a new recent high overnight but has now dropped back below that high and below last Friday's high, too. So far, the pullback isn't significant, but equity bulls want to see the USDJPY keep pushing higher, not stall near this level. Currently the USDJPY is between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements of its long slide off last June's highs into March's lows, at about 102.48 and 106.58, respectively. It's also below possible resistance at a congestion zone that begins at about 106.40-106.80. So, chances are that this choppy climb off March low is just a bear flag or relief rally. The low has not yet been retested. Such rallies can carry values up to 38.2, 50 or even 61.8% retracements, but are subject to failing at any time. As I type, the USDJPY is 104.47, off its 104.79 overnight high.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 9:19:27 AM

Art Cashin on CNBC suggesting that a good portion of yesterday's rally was just short covering, especially in the financials.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 9:15:29 AM

Shares of Apple (AAPL) look poised to out perform again today. The stock is trading up a couple of points near $171.00 ahead of the bell.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 9:12:30 AM

Shoemaker Deckers Outdoor (DECK) is going to be a big winner today. The stock closed at $117.45 and is currently trading near $133.50 following last night's earnings surprise.

The company beat Wall Street estimates of 76 cents by 10 cents. Management guided higher for the rest of 2008.

The latest data listed short interest in DECK at more than 28% of the very small 12.5 million-share float.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 9:08:53 AM

American Express (AXP) is still trading higher ahead of the bell. Shares closed at $45.18 yesterday and looks poised to open near $47.00.

It was AXP's positive earnings news last night that is lifting shares of Visa (V), which is also poised to open higher.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2008 9:07:50 AM

The higher highs and lows tell you the bulls have control of the overnight session. The Russell 2000 futures (ER2) have even tagged its previous day highs but the only market to do so. Link

James Brown : 4/25/2008 9:06:44 AM

Coal stocks, which reversed lower a few days ago, could be under pressure again today after one firm downgraded a handful of coal producers.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2008 9:03:59 AM

Gold has very nicely shown us where the sellers are willing to step in (resistance) and where the buyers will step up to the plate (support).

If Macd turns and makes a higher high here then we have the bullish divergence that will help to propel Gold through its resistance and let it start its climb back to yearly highs. Link

James Brown : 4/25/2008 9:03:56 AM

Another problem for oil is the threat of a strike at one of BP's refineries in Scotland that could force a closure of the North Sea oil pipeline. Just one more factor pushing oil prices higher again.

The WSJ is reporting that the Grangemouth refinery is set to strike on Sunday, which would shut down 700,000 barrels a day from U.K. output.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2008 9:00:15 AM

Crude is heading back up again and I'm afraid it will tag its all time high at 118.56 before it retraces again. I still think it is due for a retracement back to at least 109 but timing is everything if you want to short this market. Link

James Brown : 4/25/2008 8:57:51 AM

Oil is probably higher on news that a strike by workers in Nigeria has shut down production for ExxonMobil (XOM).

XOM is the largest producer in Nigeria and the strike has shut down about 200,000 pbd of production.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2008 8:54:51 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures traded little changed Friday, stabilizing after two days of sharp losses, as the U.S. dollar made gains against other major currencies.

Gold for June delivery edged up $1.40 at $890.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"Some bargain-hunting has provided temporary support, yet there is wariness that any change in Fed rate expectations could mark a broader shift in dollar sentiment, which may have a detrimental effect on commodities as a whole," said analysts at Action Economics.

The Federal Reserve will convene policymakers to consider the U.S. economy and monetary policy next week, on April 29 and 30.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 8:52:34 AM

Crude oil is up about 94 cents to $117.00 a barrel.

James Brown : 4/25/2008 8:50:47 AM

Well it looks like the positive American Express (AXP) earnings from last night is overshadowing the negative reaction to Microsoft (MSFT) earnings and the major indices are poised to open higher this morning...

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