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Jeff Bailey : 4/29/2008 2:24:58 AM

Global Equity Benchmarks, DXY and major currencies, USO and GLD week-to-week table I keep at this Link

Keene Little : 4/28/2008 11:38:32 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

It's hard to see on the SPX daily chart but today's candle was a small gravestone doji at resistance--the downtrend line from October and the top of its rising wedge from March. A down day on Tuesday would confirm the reversal signal. Link

The 60-min chart shows it has also formed a small rising wedge, with bearish divergence, at the top of the daily rising wedge. It has the requisite 5-waves inside the wedge from the April 22nd low so it can be called complete at Monday's high. It closed at the bottom of the wedge so any lower on Tuesday will be a breakdown from it and a quick decline to the April 22nd low would likely follow before much of a bounce. But any rally above 1405 would be potentially bullish although it might not be much more than about 20 or 30 points worth of bullishness, if that much. Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/28/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 5:38:30 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 5:26:29 PM

Tax Rebates Start Showing Up In Bank Accounts ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 5:20:05 PM

Looks like the Call action in TSO was Jun$30 strike. 16,470 traded with Friday's OI just 364 contracts. Today's High/Low for the TSO-FF was $1.31/$1.10

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 5:17:10 PM

CNBC trader mentioning some unusual stock buying combined with call option selling in TSO $25.43 -3.78% today.

Stock finds a bid to $26.29 extended.

Remember! Company lifted its poison pill several weeks ago.

August Calls have been painful "hold" so far.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 5:13:08 PM

June Unleaded (rb08m) settled down $0.0250, or -0.82% at $3.0217.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 5:09:39 PM

EIA: US Retail Gasoline +9.5c On Week To $3.603/Gallon

DJ- The national average retail price of regular gasoline set a record at $3.603 a gallon in the latest week, the Energy Information Administration said Monday.

Prices were up 9.5 cents from the previous week, and 63.2c above a year ago. The price set a record for the third week running.

Gasoline prices have been bolstered by record high crude oil prices. Although demand is expected to be slightly below year-ago levels during the summer driving season, it is still the strongest period the year.

EIA projects gasoline prices will peak at around $3.62 a gallon in June.

EIA's gasoline price survey is collected through a telephone sampling of approximately 900 retail gasoline outlets.

The AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report said Monday the average national price was $3.603 a gallon, up from $2.942 a year ago.

By Region ... East Coast +11.7c at $3.601. Midwest +9.8c at $3.568. Gulf Coast +9.4c at $3.505. Rocky Mtns +6.2c at $3.478. West Coast +5.2c at $3.786. California +4.6c at $3.892.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 4:43:43 PM

DJ (update)- Visa 2Q Up 28%; Co Gives Cautious EPS Growth View

V $75.63 +0.70% ... lower at $72.80 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 4:42:13 PM

Closing Internals at this Link

James Brown : 4/28/2008 4:40:59 PM

Time is almost up on our bullish play in ESRX. This past weekend and tonight we are suggesting readers take profits immediately. The newsletter will "close" this play at Tuesday's closing bell. ESRX reports earnings Tuesday night. Shares have already surpassed our early target at $72.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 4:25:03 PM

DJ (update)- Teva Generic Of Hypertension Drug Flolan Approved

TEVA $45.83 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 4:20:34 PM

DJ (earlier)- GENWORTH SEES $50M TO $100M MORTGAGE LOSSES

After posting a $36 million 1Q operating loss for the quarter, the mortgage insurance business could see $50 million to $100 million in losses for the remainder of the year as the housing market continues to weaken.

GNW $23.17 +3.76% ...

Keene Little : 4/28/2008 4:20:21 PM

The DOW's daily chart (arithmetic scale to again keep the longer term uptrend lines out of the way) shows two potential reversal candlestick patterns from Friday and today. Friday's was a hanging man doji at resistance and today's could be considered the start of an evening star if tomorrow's candle is red (it's hinting at being a shooting star but the shadow above the body should ideally be longer for that candle). Link

It doesn't preclude minor new highs but these candles are warning us of a topping pattern especially when combined with trend line resistance, daily overbought and bearish divergences at the highs since April 18th. If you're feeling bullish about the market, at least pull your stop up a little tighter. The 12743 low on April 25th makes a good stop.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 4:18:55 PM

DJ (earlier)- FREDDIE ON BUYING SPREE, FANNIE MORE RESTRAINED

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae increase mortgage portfolios as freed-up capital allows them to buy bonds as bargain prices. Freddie Mac's portfolio jumps by $43.5 billion. Fannie Mae's commitments are up slightly at $8.1 billion for March.

FRE $27.14 -2.86% ...

FNM $30.02 -1.83% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 4:11:53 PM

Toll Bros. (TOL) $23.84 +1.53% ... trying to gain traction at its rounding-out-from-lower 200-day SMA ($21.56).

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 4:10:36 PM

Dow Jones US Home Construction (DJUSHB) 385.07 +1.87% ... continues to oscillate either side of starting to round out from lower 200-day SMA (370.59). 150-day SMA has been sideways (345.10) for just less than one (1) month.

Keene Little : 4/28/2008 4:08:20 PM

I see the potential for the DOW to get another down-up sequence to a minor new high into the FOMC announcement on Wednesday based on a small rising wedge from last week (playing out near the top of the larger rising wedge on the daily chart from March 17th). A high right around 13K would be the upside target if it finds support at or above 12800. Any break below 12743, as noted on the 60-min chart, would be at least short term bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 4:08:12 PM

DJ (earlier)- HOME VACANCIES SET RECORD IN 1Q

The number of vacant homes in the United States increases by 1 million over the past year to a record 18.6 million. Analysts say the housing market won't recover until the glut of vacant homes on the market can be worked down.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 4:07:37 PM

DJ (earlier)- PARTS OF STRUCTURED FINANCE IMPROVING

Robert Steel, Treasury undersecretary for domestic finance, says certain parts of structured finance are more stressed than others, and notes there have been signs in the last 60 to 90 days that some parts are seeing demand coming back.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 4:01:25 PM

If the SPX can't maintain support at about 1396.40 on 15-minute closes, it may drop further, being vulnerable to 1391.50 or maybe even 1388-1389 according to the 15- and 30-minute charts. We'll have to wait until tomorrow to find out.

Robert Ogilvie : 4/28/2008 3:58:19 PM

Visa Inc. (V) has lost nearly all of its gain. The stock is +0.10 at 75.20 and was up as high as 77.29. I like this story but it is a lower risk long once the price fills in the gap from Friday (72.99).

James Brown : 4/28/2008 3:53:04 PM

I noticed that the bounce in CF, another fertilizer-related stock, has failed near its 10-dma (-2.9% near $140.00). This might be a spot for aggressive bearish positions. If I was brave enough to take this trade I'd aim for $130 but you could aim for the 50-dma near $125 instead.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 3:51:36 PM

Time to make those end-of-day decisions, if you haven't already done so. On the daily chart, we've got a doji between the important S/R zones near 1386-1387 and 1407-1417 on my Keltner and other daily charts. A doji is natural and normal leading into this week's FOMC meeting and we could get another consolidation-type candle again tomorrow as market participants hunker down ahead of the FOMC decision. However, remember that this is now a doji right on top of a long climb off the March low, and there's the potential for it to be a reversal signal, too. It could perhaps presage a reversal down to stronger support near 1382 or even 1356-1358. We've seen so many other potential reversal signals forming since that climb began. Some have meaned little and some did presage a pullback down through the rising channel that may now be narrowing into a wedge. I wouldn't go home with more bullish risk than I could afford, particularly if in May options, as there could certainly be at least one more day of consolidation. No promises, of course.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 3:42:54 PM

The OEX has dropped to the downside target equivalent to the SPX's 1396.36 level. I've noticed that the OEX has again for the last couple of trading days and particularly today, shown more weakness on a Keltner basis (or, rather, less strength) than has the SPX. For the last couple of weeks, it's been the opposite, but now the generals appear to be flagging just a bit by comparison. I'm not taking that too seriously as yet because the others might be playing catchup as appetite for risk improves (as measured by RUT and MID performances, for example), but I generally don't like to see the generals flagging in a rally.

Robert Ogilvie : 4/28/2008 3:40:02 PM

Higher end consumer discretionary stocks like Coach (COH) and Tiffany's (TIF) have remained relatively stable during the recent market decline. The general condition is that the average shopper at these stores in not the average Joe and Jane. While I was talking with a wealthy girl friend (a friend that is a girl) she noticed that I was looking at COH and TIF my laptop screen. And she commented I have 6 different COH bags. A few days later I walked into a conversation of some friends that aren't affluent and they were discussing how they never bought COH and Gucci at the outlet stores because they were still too expensive. My point is that sales haven't declined in these stocks as much as those that depend on normal folk. However, both TIF Link and COH Link are approaching the daily 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA).

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 3:36:22 PM

For the OEX, there's potential support near 644.42 on 15-minute closes.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 3:35:56 PM

Not only did the SPX not close that 30-minute period above the resistance now near 1403.30, but also it fell below the 15-minute 9-ema for the first time since about 1:30 Friday afternoon. The close below that moving average was minimal, but it does increase the chance that the SPX might drop towrd 1396-1397.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 3:30:40 PM

It looks as if the SPX's resistance on 15-minute and 30-minute closes (see my 3:17:56 post for charts) will hold again on this 15-minute and 30-minute close. On a Keltner basis, this is not bullish behavior and usually indicates that the prices will have to fall back toward deeper support, perhaps near 1396-1396.50 or so.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 3:17:56 PM

Let me show you what I'm watching on the SPX's 15-minute chart: Link and 30-minute chart: Link

Keene Little : 4/28/2008 3:17:01 PM

Looking at the DOW's daily chart with the arithmetic scale (to keep the uptrend lines from October 2002 and March 2003 out of the way) you can see how price is parked right up underneath trend line resistance at the top of its parallel up-channel for price action since January and the top of the rising wedge: Link

And then going back to using the log scale you can see the added resistance from the broken long term uptrend lines: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 3:17:11 PM

Will check our BP 30-week. Bulls would want to see somewhere north of 38%.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 3:15:11 PM

Healthcare stocks aren't moving in spite of a positive earnings report from Humana (HUM) this morning.

HUM reported better than expected earnings by 2 cents a share. Of course earnings expectations had been lowered after the company issued an earnings warning back in early March (big gap down on the daily chart).

HUM is up 2.8% today but the group isn't not following it higher.

Meanwhile... United Health (UNH) has had its credit outlook downgraded to negative by Fitch. UNH has been under performing and it might be a bearish candidate on a drop below $33.50-33.40. The next level of support is probably the $30.00 mark.

Just a reminder... multiple healthcare companies in the last week or two have already lowered guidance for 2008.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 3:13:56 PM

The TRAN is still finding support on 15-minute closes at its 15-minute 9-ema, but it hasn't made a new high in the last hour. I'm watching to see if it does on this candle. That previous high of the day was 5182.92 and the TRAN is now 5181.53.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 3:14:53 PM

Wilshire 5000 (DWC) 14,136 +0.33% ... the broadest of the broad. Testing trend here. 150-day SMA (30-week) ahead at 14,338.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 3:09:06 PM

DIA, SPY, IWM and QQQQ Montage with conventional at this Link

DIA still in the leadership role within retracement. Threatens downward trend into the close.

SPY lagging trend, but it looks headed there (TRAN 5,175 +1.16%). IWM and QQQQ build buyers confidence.

Robert Ogilvie : 4/28/2008 3:07:55 PM

Oops... I got excited. Anyway, the CBOE Treasury 10 Year Yield ($TNX.X) is turning over a little today. Probably just some pre Fed buying. Looks like we could see retracement to the 50 DMA at 36.11. A break of today's high could bring the 4% level into play. Link

Keene Little : 4/28/2008 3:06:29 PM

SPX has been struggling all day at trend line resistance--the one along the highs since April 7th (top of a potential rising wedge) and the downtrend line from October. It's just barely holding above the February 1st high at 1396. Bulls will say price is consolidating before pushing up through resistance and bears will say it's overbought and showing negative divergence at resistance. Until SPX can press above 1405 I'm leaning into the bear camp here.
60-min chart: Link
daily chart: Link

Robert Ogilvie : 4/28/2008 3:04:01 PM


James Brown : 4/28/2008 3:03:43 PM

Recession? What recession?

Excel Energy is saying that 17% of its customers are past due on their heating/energy bill and that they're disconnecting power to about 600+ homes a day now that winter is over. Some states have laws that prohibit energy companies from disconnecting your power and heat during winter.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 2:59:19 PM

the DJUSHB home construction index is up 2.1%.

PHM appears to be leading the group up 4.7%.
BZH is up just over 4%.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 2:59:03 PM

The SPX's attempt to push higher did not work. It's now testing the 30-minute 9-ema, with that now at 1399.61. All day and since Friday afternoon, resistance that's now at 1402.71 on 30-minute closes has held and suport that's now at 1399.61 on 3-minute closes has held. One of those has got to break before there's a change in tenor, but neither has so far on a close.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 2:55:21 PM

Hmmm..... IBM is under performing the market today. Shares have broken down from their weeklong trading range in the $122.00-125.00 zone. I've been looking for a dip near $120, which as broken resistance should be new support.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 2:56:09 PM

This week is going to be difficult heading into tomorrow and Wednesday. Any number of economic events could change the market tenor, although most potential road bumps occur Wednesday and not tomorrow.

Still, as we approach the last hour of trading, I want traders to begin thinking about what's happening overnight and before the markets open tomorrow, thinking about how much risk they're taking home with them overnight and if they feel comfortable with that risk. We have earnings from BP, GLW and VLO (not sure if that's also before the market open), among others. April's consumer confidence is tomorrow but that's not until 10:00 am ET. Tonight, Japan has a national holiday, so I don't expect any developments there, and I kind of think the USDJPY is already clamping down into its pre-FOMC waiting mode, anyway, or trying to do so.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 2:53:34 PM

Steel-maker Nucor (NUE), an OI call play, is breaking out to new all-time highs near $77.00.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 2:51:42 PM

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) continues to bounce +3.6% to $47.75. I mentioned it last week. I'm expecting the $50.00-52.50 zone to be overhead resistance.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 2:49:02 PM

I'm noticing some relative strength in real estate-related stock JLL. The stock broke through its 200-dma last week and is pushing past resistance near $90.00 today.

The company is due to report earnings tomorrow after the closing bell.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 2:42:25 PM

Copper producer Southern Copper Corp. (PCU) is down 4.4% following its earnings report today.

Technicals are turning negative and the daily chart has a bearish divergence between price and its MACD indicator.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 2:40:03 PM

Hmm. James, you can't know this because you're not an old fogey like me, but that 2:35:47 post of yours certainly harks back to the early 70's, when we were having such problems with energy costs. I lived in Houston then and worked at a company owned by one of the city's big thinkers, one who backed ideas for flexible working hours (so we weren't all on the freeway at the same time), mass transit (not always popular in Texas, because we like our cars and our independence) and other such ideas. I bet he'd be shaking his head that so much time has passed and we're back to the same thing, without having made a lot of progress in the interim.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 2:39:12 PM

65 million gallons of gas times $4.00 a gallon = $260,000,000 ($260 million) a week.

4 weeks = $1.04 billion a month.

Now that could do a lot to help consumers, which would definitely help the economy.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 2:35:58 PM

When I look at daily charts, I see the MID and RUT breaking out above their descending trendlines off their October highs. We want to see some risk appetite come into the markets, so that has to be weighed on the bullish side for the markets . . . if those breakouts are maintained into the week's close, and that's a big "if." Note: I'm not using these as trading vehicles today but rather watching them as sort of indicator indices. When I look at these indices on Keltner charts, I see that the MID has potential resistance on daily closes at about 846. For the RUT, it's about 724. So, both are challenging potentially strong resistance on daily closes today. The RUT has further strong resistance near 740.60. If you're thinking that they're indicating that other indices are going to break higher, or, if you're even trading some kind of breakout trade on the RUT, be aware of the evidence. On traditional charts, both indices attempt breakouts today, but we haven't seen the daily close. On Keltner charts, they're challenging resistance, but they'd have to pull higher than they are now to indicate that they've broken free of that resistance.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 2:35:47 PM

Hmm... interesting idea... CNBC talking about how different cities (or states) are considering a four-day work week for government employees. The proposed plan of four 10-hour days is expected to save 65 million gallons of gasoline nationwide per week.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 2:32:53 PM

On CNBC... comments about the housing vacancy rates...
Almost 3% of homes in America are standing vacant (this number does not include rentals). This is about double what it was a few years ago.

Almost 1 out of 5 homes for sale has what they're calling "negative equity". They're either a short-sale or a bank foreclosure. A short-sale is when the homeowner is trying to sell the home for less than what they owe the bank (usually because they're facing foreclosure if they dont sell it soon). A lot of times it's a great deal for all parties involved. The banks can save money taking 85-90% of what they're owned now instead of proceeding with the foreclosure process and the troubled homeowner gets out from under their mortage. Unfortunately, these short-sales take about three times longer to close and the banks are notorious for delays in approving short-sale deals, which makes them a lot less desirable for buyers to consider them.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 2:25:37 PM

The TRAN's 15-minute 9-ema is now at about 5172.70. Further potential support is near 5160 and then 5147. Sustained 15-minute closes beneath the 15-minute 9-ema would produce the first small change in tenor. A sustained drop beneath 5160 would hint that the momentum was waning; a sustained drop beneath 5147 would confirm that. The TRAN is at 5172.90. So far, none of those scenarios has come true, but remain watchful just in case.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 2:25:33 PM

I noticed the comments on POT and MOS and the other fertilizer stocks. I agree that the group looks overbought and way overdue for a correction. However, I also think that this group will continue to out perform for a long-time but it could be a very volatile trip higher.

Just looking at Mosiac (MOS), dips to the 50-dma or 100-dma have been great buying opportunities in the past. It's not there yet but the stock is bouncing from broken resistance and what should be support near $120. I wonder if nimble traders could scalp a few points in MOS as it bounces from support in the $120 region. An easy upside target would be the $128.00-129.00 range. A failed rally under $130 could be used as an entry point for bearish plays, especially if you think MOS will eventually breakdown under $120. The P&F chart for MOS has turned bearish and points to a $100 target.

Potash (POT) also has a similar pattern of bouncing from its 50 and 100-dma but it has plenty of room to fall before it gets near either one.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 2:19:28 PM

Wow! Nikkei-225 and HangSeng really played some catch up

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 2:11:09 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/28/2008 2:07:28 PM

The Trannies have arrived into the station. The conductor is calling "all aboard" to the bears for a short play at resistance (the broken uptrend line from March 2003). At least you can keep your stop nice and tight. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 2:01:23 PM

As mentioned as a possibility in my 1:28:37 post, the VIX is being pressured lower, toward Keltner support that was then near 19.31 and is now at about 19.34 on 15-minute closes. The VIX is now 19.48, testing lighter potential support on 15-minute closes now near 19.48. As mentioned in that previous post, be watchful of the possibility that the VIX could find support and then begin bouncing if it does test that 19.34 potential support. Since the VIX doesn't adhere as well to 15-minute Keltner lines as do some indices, I'd be watchful for bounce potential any time now. You can't count on a bounce, but just remain watchful of the possibility.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 2:00:50 PM

S&P 100 Bullish % (BPOEX) from Dorsey/Wright at this Link

StockCharts.com's $BPOEX Link ... "looks" more bullish than it may actually be at Friday's close. A lot of dividend payers as % of total (100 stocks), so quite a few "adjusted charts."

Keene Little : 4/28/2008 1:58:26 PM

ES is trying hard here--at 1403.75 it's only a point away from its pre-market high. Even though the market is rallying today (if you can call it that), there just doesn't seem enough excitement. But it's just enough to keep the shorts from making any headway. I suspect that if it lets go this afternoon it could be a relatively strong decline. But so far it's really just a quiet day in the market.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 1:56:10 PM

That possible stop run to test is certainly occurring in the TRAN with the outcome as yet undecided. The TRAN continues to climb its 15-minute 9-ema. That's now at 5169.80, with the TRAN currently at 5178.66. I don't think the SPX, OEX or Dow are going to drop too far as long as the TRAN is trending higher on that 15-minute chart. However, so far, all that's done is to keep those other indices testing resistance.

Keene Little : 4/28/2008 1:53:06 PM

It's not always a direct (inverse) relationship but the buying in bonds today could result in some selling in stocks.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 1:46:14 PM

The SPX has spent all day challenging Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes that's now at about 1402.16. So far, that resistance has held, but the SPX, at 1401.45 as I type, is currently challenging it again. We're in a typical stop-running time of day, so watch for the possibility that the SPX could get pushed higher or lower in a test of support or resistance. If so, you have to wait until the test is over to see what happens next. Perhaps big money is already positioned ahead of the economic numbers tomorrow and Wednesday and then Wednesday's Fed decision.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 1:45:14 PM

VIX.X 19.54 -0.25% ... still sitting on, or juuuuust above its QRTLY S1 (see 04/16/08 MM @ 01:23:05) chart Link

WKLY Pivot Levels are ... 17.74, 18.67, Piv= 20.13, 21.06, 22.52.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 1:42:03 PM

A 38.2% retracement of the RUT's slide off its July high is being approached. That's at about 726.30-726.60. (I've snapped it rather than calculated it, so values are approximate.)

Keene Little : 4/28/2008 1:38:33 PM

YM just made a point higher than its pre-market high of 12928 and ES came within 1.25 points so we'll now get to see if the bulls can get some follow through vs. just a retest.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 1:28:37 PM

Unless the VIX can muster some strength soon, it's looking as if it might be pressured down toward about 19.31-19.32. If it is, watch for potential support there, possibly enough to bounce it over the short-term. The VIX is now 19.58.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 1:13:23 PM

S&P 500 (SPX.X) bar chart with QRTRLY Pivot retracement (green) and MNTHLY (drk purple) and noted WKLY Pivot Levels Link

Tight range last week gives rather tight WKLY S2/R2 range.

With BPSPX back in "bull confirmed" status, bulls will have advantage on break much above 1,401.

Keene Little : 4/28/2008 1:13:21 PM

If POT closes down for the week you can see on the weekly chart that I posted it would leave an evening star reversal pattern at resistance. That would be a strong reversal signal. But obviously it's early in the week. Just something to watch for.

Keene Little : 4/28/2008 1:08:12 PM

I was looking at Potash (POT) with another trader, wondering where many of the agricultural stocks were going to peak out in their parabolic rallies. Talk about a bubble! The weekly chart of POT, using the log scale, shows it ran into the top of its up-channel from 2006 with a slight throw-over at last Wednesday's high and has now dropped back down. Link

It's looking like a good sell signal on the weekly chart. But obviously it's an attempt to pick a top in a strong sector so the usual cautions if thinking of the short side on this.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 1:04:41 PM

Last week's action found buyers steady for SPX.X at correlative WKLY Pivot and MONTHLY R1 ... Today's high marked by QRTRLY 61.8% retracement and downward trend from all-time high 10/11/07 to inflection high 12/11/07.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 12:57:22 PM

The MID, TRAN and RUT have all moved to new highs before the TRAN, at least, began its current small pullback. These indices tend to lead others, and they've been attempting to lead to the upside. So far, they might be leading to the upside, but investors in the SPX stocks are dragging their feet. The A/D line has been moving higher today, too, but is now stalling beneath a descending trendline off the Friday morning high. The TRIN pulled back from the resistance I mentioned earlier, but now it's bouncing from support and is 1.06 as I type. The VIX's low today is higher than Friday's low, at least so far. The USDJPY just isn't doing much of anything today. It's been in a tight consolidation range since Friday and that range appears to be getting tighter.

Mixed evidence remains. I would put the TRAN on my radar screen. As long as it's still finding support on 15-minute closes and then bouncing from its 15-minute 9-ema, now at about 5160, the TRAN's rise may hint that the SPX and OEX will at least continue testing resistance. It doesn't promise they'll beat it, though. If the TRAN begins sustaining values below about 5140 on 15-minute closes, it may be showing that the upward momentum is waning, however.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 12:56:55 PM

Big technical test underway in the SPX's bar chart for pivot traders and trend traders.

Robert Ogilvie : 4/28/2008 12:54:25 PM

Correction: Agrium's symbol is AGU not AG.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 12:53:36 PM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,400.01 +0.15% Link

Note "spread tiple top" breakout at 1,390.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 12:51:29 PM

S&P 500 Bullish % (BPSPX) from Dorsey/Wright Link

Was "bull correction" status at 46.68% on 4/18/08. Friday's action and net gain of 0.81% was enough to get back to "bull confirmed" at 50.00. 500 stocks here so 265 currently have PnF "buy signal" associated with the chart.

StockCharts.com's $BPSPX Link

Robert Ogilvie : 4/28/2008 12:45:46 PM

Chemical-Fertilizer stocks Mosaic (MOS), Potash (POT) and Agrium (AG) are down sharply today. Unfortunately, I can't find any definitive news to back up the sell off. There is something about ICL, Israel Chemicals, the producer of fertilizer and chemicals derived from the Dead Sea. ICL is also the most-active issue on Monday, with parent Israel Corp. up 1% as the second-most-active issue. Leader Capital Markets had said that investors on Sunday took profits on ICL, (ISCHF) knocking it down 4.7% and bringing the share "more in line with U.S.-traded" Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT) and Mosaic. (MOS). So far that's all that's out there. This might just be profit talking.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 12:30:52 PM

Both BPNYSE and BPOTC achieved "bull confirmed" status measures on 04/02/08 at respective 42.00 and 30%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 12:29:20 PM

OTC Bullish % (BPOTC) from Dorsey/Wright was "bull confirmed" at 32.53% on 04/18/08. As of Friday's close had risen to 34.33%. Again, just over 3,000 PnF stocks here, so net gain of 1.8%, or roughly 54 reversing higher PnF buy signals.

StockCharts.com's $BPCOMPQ equivalent was 36.08% at Friday's close. Link ... not as many "dividend" payers here.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 12:20:11 PM

Potential resistance on 15-minute closes for the SPX is at 1401.98. For the OEX, it's 646.40 and 647.38.

Keene Little : 4/28/2008 12:19:55 PM

The RUT is approaching the top of a rising wedge pattern from Friday's low, currently just above 725, so it could soon be topping if it is in an ending pattern as suggested by the bearish rising wedge with bearish divergence at today's high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 12:24:50 PM

NYSE Bullish % (BPNYSE) from Dorsey/Wright was "bull confirmed" at 46.62% on 04/18/08. As of Friday's close, had risen to 47.84%. Just over 3,000 PnF charts, so gain of 1.22%, or roughly net gain of 37 stocks to reversing higher PnF buy signals.

StockCharts.com's $BPNYA Link was 50.68% at Friday's close. Difference between the two is that StockCharts.com adjusts their individual charts (PnF and bar) when a stock pays a dividend. This "skews" true supply/demand measurement.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 12:12:19 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 12:03:36 PM

I now have quotes back on the MID and am hoping that they're reliable. The reason I had wanted to see the MID is that this S&P MidCap Index used to be a front-runner for the SPX, OEX and Dow, leading the way. Friday it had ended the day just above its 200-sma, but by only a few points. That average is now at 841.50 and the MID, if quotes are accurate now, is 844.98, still just a little above that 200-sma. About 850.40 is the MID's 61.8% retracement of its long slide off the October 11 high into the January (for the MID) low. Also, depending on how the trendline was drawn (best fit or otherwise) off that October high, the MID had either broken through the downtrend or was just barely edging above it.

So, the MID is at and approaching presumably strong resistance. It's also testing if not breaking slightly above some of that resistance. It might give us some heads-up as to what happens next.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 11:56:10 AM

One of the big surprises in the last couple of weeks has been strength in the retailers and the restaurant stocks.

If we're in a consumer-led recession and gasoline is going to be $4.00 a gallon or more this summer then why are investors buying these stocks that seem to have so much exposure to the consumer?

One stock that caught my eye today was AFC Enterprises (AFCE), better known as Popeyes Chicken & Biscuits. AFCE is up a sharp 5.6% today and breaking out past round-number resistance at the $10.00 mark.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 11:52:31 AM

Sohu.com (SOHU) $69.45 +12.30% ... I've been unable to uncover just what type of "news" has been driving the shares of late. Citigroup upgraded to "buy" from "hold" on Friday.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 12:07:00 PM

Robert, welcome to the Market Monitor. We'll enjoy reading your commentary.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 11:51:15 AM

FreightCar America (RAIL) is showing relative strength today. On Friday the stock broke through technical resistance at its 200-dma. Today the stock is pushing past round-number resistance at $40.00.

While it might be tempting to consider bullish positions the company is due to report earnings on May 1st. Estimates are set for a profit of 42 cents a share.

The P&F chart for RAIL is bullish with a $55 target but there appears to be a lot of congestion in the $42.50-46.00 zone.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 11:49:57 AM

The SPX now forms 15-minute candles along its 15-minute 9-ema. Is this support or resistance now? That's unclear, but we need to be aware that the support may be weakening. The resistance now from about 1401.87-1402 has been holding all day on 15-minute closes. In fact, it's been holding on touches. Roll out to the 30-minute 9-ema now at 1396.44 for next support, as bulls want that to hold on 30-minute closes. I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPX roll down toward that, or maybe even a bit lower, toward 1395.50.

Keene Little : 4/28/2008 11:48:55 AM

Updating the TRAN's daily chart shows it has rallied up to its Fib projection at 5147 (two equal legs up from January) and up to the top of its rising wedge pattern for the rally off the March low. It is also close to its broken uptrend line from March 2003 (just under 5200). With the bearish divergences I continue to like the setup for a short play on the Transports: Link

Upside risk is to the top of a parallel up-channel for price action since January, near 5300. A way to play the trannies is with the DJ Transportation Average iShares (IYT) which shows the same setup (except no longer term uptrend line from March 2003): Link

We're potentially seeing a throw-over finish to the rising wedge pattern but it's an early call. A drop back down inside the pattern now would be a sell signal.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 11:43:13 AM

S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 415.34 -0.32% ... Daily Interval bar chart with a benchmarked retracement (blue) to SPX, and all-encompassing (pink). Some US economic stimulous checks being issued this week. Link

Large portion of consumer sentiment impacted by broader stock market. A key driver of sentiment as account gains/losses impact "how rich/poor" have I gotten in recent months and weeks.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 11:41:54 AM

Shares of networking equipment maker Juniper Networks (JNPR) continue to rally following Friday's earnings report.

Traders bought the dip on Friday near its 10-dma and short-term trend of higher lows. Now the stock is up another 2.39% and flirting with a breakout over its 100-dma and 200-ema. I think shares look short-term overbought and if it can push past these moving averages it still has price resistance near $28.00 to deal with.

The P&F chart is still negative in spite of the 20% rebound from its April lows.

Larger rival Cisco Systems (CSCO) is due to report earnings on May 6th.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 11:35:55 AM

The head of trucking company YRCW, Bill Zollars, does not expect the U.S. economy to rebound in the second half of 2008.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 11:32:46 AM

Precision Castparts (PCP) is holding its gains.

On Friday PCP broke through resistance near $117.50, resistance at its 100-dma, its 200-ema, and the $120 level. Shares are holding those gains at $121.10 today.
FYI: The P&F chart points to a $125 target and the $130 level definitely looks like overhead resistance.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2008 11:29:12 AM

I have a couple of minutes between appointments so I decided to chime in a little today.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2008 11:28:23 AM

Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A, BRK.B) has been on CNBC this morning discussing his Wrigley's bid this morning. Interestingly enough this interview was more of a general discussion about the current economic climate and strategy since he said, "We are in a recession."

The call in the last few minutes also noted that the classic definition of a recession being negative GDP for two consecutive quarters and a 0.1% growth may keep the classic definition from being there. He also noted that the National Bureau of Economic Research is the one who officially calls the classic recession, and that definition is far different "from the man in the streets."

He also noted that the current trade policies will weaken the dollar, although he noted how he was also surprised that inflation hasn't been higher from commodity costs. Warren Buffett also said he thinks this will deeper and longer than many people think.

We have been in "recession mode" according to our own internal readings for the entire part of 2008. Whether or not GDP will show a true negative number or not is immaterial. Things started heading south ahead of Christmas, and the wings were ripped off the plane mid-flight starting in January to February.

The Fed interventions and actions to save the financial institutions have done more than the rate cuts, and we've noted that the FOMC should maybe take that throttle off of rate cuts now. The rates get advertised in the windows for lower rates, but you can't qualify.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 11:27:27 AM

Build-a-Bear Workshop (BBW) continues to rally.

The stock soared on Friday, breaking out past resistance near $10.00 and its 50-dma. The stock is up another 4.1% today to $10.57. The most recent data listed short interest on BBW at close to 20% of the 15.4 million-share float.

The company reported earnings on April 24th that beat analysts' estimates by 5 cents.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2008 11:24:46 AM

The industrywide issue affecting the delivery of S&P MidCap 400 index data ($MID.X or $IDX) has been resolved

James Brown : 4/28/2008 11:24:40 AM

Shares of equipment maker Bucyrus (BUCY) are up 1.8% to another new all-time high ($130.50) after one firm raised their earnings estimates and raised their price target on the stock from $120 to $150.

This news is also lifting shares of Joy Global (JOYG), an OI call play. JOYG is up 1.2% to $76.66.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 11:24:22 AM

DJ Newswire Survey: US April Consumer Confidence Seen At 61.5

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 11:24:14 AM

Both the SPX and OEX are below their 15-minute 9-ema's. Bulls want them to bounce back above them (1397.70 and 644.84) by the close of this 15-minute period. If they don't, I'm rolling out to the 30-minute chart to see next support. The SPX's 30-minute 9-ema is now 1395.74; the OEX's, 643.98.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 11:20:40 AM

Medical equipment maker Medtronic (MDT) is nearing a bullish breakout.

The stock is up 1.6% to $50.23. The stock has been trading sideways the last three weeks and is nearing a breakout over its 200-dma ($50.30). This would also coincide with a breakout over its five-month trendline of resistance.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 11:16:46 AM

The shipping stocks and dry-bulk carriers have been strong for a couple of weeks in a row. The group hit some profit taking last Thursday but they are recovering.

DRYS is up another 2% today and is quickly closing in on resistance near $88.00 around the February highs. The P&F chart for DRYS is suggesting a $102 target.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 11:12:17 AM

Speaking of steel.... U.S. Steel (X) is down 41 cents to $152.00 in spite of having its price target upgraded this morning. One firm raised their target on X from $160 to $172. <> The stock is bouncing from last week's pull back.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 11:10:29 AM

Schnitzer Steel Industries (SCHN) is breaking out past round-number resistance at the $90.00 mark in the last minute. There doesn't appear to be much slow down in this stock's momentum.

Shares still look very overbought now up 7 out of the last 8 weeks.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 11:08:04 AM

BE Aerospace (BEAV) is still up about 4% today following its earnings report this morning but shares have definitely pared their gains and trading back under its 200-dma. Broken resistance in the $39.50-40.00 zone (and its 100-dma) might offer some short-term support.

Robert Ogilvie : 4/28/2008 11:07:25 AM

NYSE Euronext (NYX) ,up 1.03 or so, is showing some signs of stability today. On Friday it bounced from trading near the 200 Daily SMA and is currently just above the 200 Daily EMA (67.06) at 67.40.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 11:04:22 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) is looking stronger today. The stock is up about 0.9% and pushing past the 200-dma again. Will it hold this time? The stock has failed in the $82.00-82.50 zone more than once in the past several days. The P&F chart is currently negative but a rally past $83.00 would produce a new triple-top breakout buy signal.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 11:02:35 AM

Origin Agritech (SEED) $7.51 +15.89% Link ... would be looking to take some profits if long this China-based hybrid crop seed producer.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 10:58:57 AM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $49.49 +1.78% ... best level of the quarter. Do see some overlap this WEEK with WKLY R2 and our conventional 38.2% ($51.06) (11/30/07 high to the 01/22/08 relative low. 200-day SMA still has a slight trend higher above us at $50.11.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 10:58:51 AM

I find the CNBC story about rising sales of seeds to be encouraging. More and more people are planting their own gardens due to the high-price of produce.

In spite of this news I really don't see much of a trade here... although maybe I'm just not looking hard enough.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 10:56:38 AM

The SPX's Keltner resistance on 30-minute closes still held on the last 30-minute close and looks as if it might do so on this one, too. That's now at about 1400.25.

Keene Little : 4/28/2008 10:58:55 AM

Price action is a little choppy this morning (could we already be on Fed watch?) but SPX has so far failed in the 1401-1402 area (the high so far is 1401.48). Short against this morning's high is the recommendation. The risk is for a retest of the overnight highs in the futures. ES 1404.75 would mean another 2 points higher for SPX.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 10:53:48 AM

Research In Motion (RIMM) is recovering from Friday's swoon although there was new talk this morning about how the company might have tougher competition than previously thought from Apple's iPhone.

RIMM is up 2.3% and back above the $120 level again. Trading over the last several days is starting to look like a small bull flag pattern. The P&F chart points to a $130 target.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 10:53:33 AM

10:30 AM EDT - Dallas Fed Apr Mfg Production Index 12.5 Vs. Mar 13.6

Dallas Fed Apr Business Activity -23.4 Vs Mar -22.7

James Brown : 4/28/2008 10:51:11 AM

Shares of Visa Inc. (V) continue to surge. The stock is up 2.3% to $76.95.

The company reports earnings out after the closing bell tonight. Wall Street is looking for a profit of $0.55 a share.

The stock is seeing a ton of option activity with a lot of speculative calls being purchased. There is definitely a lot of expectation for V to beat analysts' expectations.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 10:51:01 AM

DJ (earlier)- TALKS START ON 2ND STIMULUS PACKAGE

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi says the Democratic House leadership is in talks with the Bush administration and Republicans about a second economic stimulus package.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 10:49:46 AM

DJ (earlier)- EOS FOURTH US AIRLINE TO CLOSE DOWN IN APRIL

Eos Airlines, a trans-Atlantic, all-business-class airline, files for bankruptcy protection over the weekend and plans to shut down by today, becoming the fourth U.S. carrier to go out of business this month.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 10:48:26 AM

DJ (earlier)- FEDERAL HOME LOAN PUTS 1Q NET UP 12%

Federal Home Loan Banks preliminarily reports 1Q net income of $697 million, as strength in the rest of the country's banks more than offset losses and write-downs at the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago.

FRE $27.03 -3.25% ...

James Brown : 4/28/2008 10:47:50 AM

Radioshack (RSH) is one of the worst performers in the S&P 500 today. The stock is down 13.6% to $15.12 following a lackluster earnings report this morning that has garnered at least one downgrade.

The $14.75-15.00 zone has been support for RSH for the last three months and shares look ready to break through it.

RSH appears to have built a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern with two right shoulders....

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 10:46:45 AM

DJ (earlier)- LOEWS 1Q NET FALLS 14%

Holding company's 1Q net income falls to $662 million amid declining results at its CNA Financial unit as well as net investment losses that more than offset improved results at its Diamond Offshore Drilling unit. Total revenue falls 1.5% to $4.54 billion.

LTR $42.48 -4.81% ...

CNA $24.94 -10.89% ...

RIG $131.85 -0.64% ...

James Brown : 4/28/2008 10:44:39 AM

It seems a little anticlimactic now but Bear Stearns (BSC) just announced this morning that it will hold a special shareholder meeting on May 29th to approve its merger agreement with JP Morgan (JPM).

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 10:43:43 AM

DJ (earlier)- TYSON SWINGS TO 2Q LOSS ON RESTRUCTURING

Tyson Foods swings to a 2Q loss of $5 million, or 2c a share, versus net of $68 million, or 19cc a share, due to restructuring costs, as feed costs continue to plague the company. Revenue climbs 1.7% to $6.61 billion.

TSN $18.48 +1.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 10:40:53 AM

DJ (earlier)- VERIZON NET UP 9.8% ON WIRELESS GROWTH

Telephone company earns $1.64 billion, or 57c a share, in 1Q as wireless growth continues, overcoming the faltering U.S. economy and difficulties in its land-line business. Revenue rises 5.5% to $23.83 billion.

VZ $37.80 +2.05% ... #21 weighting in Dow Industrials PRICE-weighted index.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 10:39:20 AM

DJ (earlier)- FORD CLIMBS AS TRACINDA PLANS TO BUY 20M SHARES

Ford shares rise 9% after Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda plans to make a cash tender offer for up to 20 million shares of Ford stock at $8.50 a share, a 13% premium to Friday's close. Tracinda currently owns 100 million shares of Ford common stock.

F $8.21 +9.46% ... likely explains "most active" notes from a couple of weeks ago.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 10:38:56 AM

So far, the SPX is still bouncing from tests of its 15-minute 9-ema, continuing the trend that began early Friday afternoon. So far, though, each test of the Keltner resistance now at 1401.53-1402.81 has resulted in the SPX being bounced back, too. So, from a Keltner basis, although the SPX is climbing, it's showing some signs that momentum isn't yet strong enough to break through resistance. Maybe it will just nudge it higher all day, climbing along the underside.

The 30-minute chart shows the same pattern. Prices might be higher, but the breakout on Friday 4/18 was a strong one. Monday, 4/21, the SPX pierced 30-minute resistance now at 1405.16, but it couldn't maintain values above it. Thursday 4/24, there as another breakout, but this a much shorter one in duration. Since then, the SPX has been finding resistance at a lower Keltner line, the one now showing potential resistance on 30-minute closes at 1400.29. The SPX is again, as I type, attempting a breakout above that resistance but it's done so several times since Friday afternoon, always pulling back by the 30-minute closes. So, on a Keltner basis, it looks weaker than it did when prices were lower and it was charging up. That potential weakness can be erased soon, but if I were in bullish trades, I'd be cinching up my stops just in case.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 10:37:43 AM

DJ (earlier)- MARS, BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY TO BUY WRIGLEY

Mars Inc. and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway agree to acquire Wm. Wrigley Jr. for more than $22 billion, in a deal that would remake the global confectionary landscape. Offer of $80 a share represents a 28% premium to Friday's closing price.

WWY $76.66 +22.75% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 10:30:08 AM

Thanks Linda & James! ... Very informative week in Kansas. Farmers and ranchers rather upbeat. Fuel, fertilizer and chemical prices offset bullish sentiment toward grain and livestock prices.

Turkey, deer and pheasant populations look very healthy. Some idle land coming back into production.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2008 10:28:47 AM

THis just in from Tradestation. Due to an industrywide outage, the S&P MidCap 400 Index ($MID.X or $IDX) is not updating at this time. We will be providing more information as it becomes available.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 10:27:18 AM

Yes, welcome back, Jeff. I'm sure the turkeys of the world can all breathe a sigh of relief.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 10:24:24 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

04/18/08 Closing Internals Link

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 10:23:55 AM

Jeff, welcome back from your vacation/working trip. I meant to write something Friday afternoon, but got busy with end-of-day posts.

Keene Little : 4/28/2008 10:23:08 AM

NDX is leading the way higher this morning but it had pulled back more on Friday and therefore is not as close to making new highs as is the DOW and SPX. I'm still waiting to see if SPX gets into the 1401-1402 resistance zone for a short play to set up.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 10:22:04 AM

SPX potential resistance on 15-minute closes at 1401.32-1401.60. For the 30-minute chart, it's about 1399.50, having been shoved higher by the push higher.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 10:21:02 AM

TRIN is 1.18, not wildly bearish, but it's been climbing steadily off its 0.78 low. It's not yet at a new high of the day, however, and is facing potential Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes at 1.20, so the evidence here is mixed, too. Both bulls and bears could find something to support their biases from this chart.

James Brown : 4/28/2008 10:19:08 AM

An OPEC minister made a statement today that if the U.S. dollar will strengthen we could see $40 come out of the price of crude oil.

That seems like a stretch. Just looking at the U.S. dollar and the USO (oil ETF)... the USO is up about 81% from late August while the U.S. Dollar is down about 12% in the same time period.

Yes, the dollar impacts the price of oil but not to the extent that a lot of these commentators say it does.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 10:19:08 AM

The A/D line just popped to a new high of the day. Bulls need to see it hold, though, as that wasn't much of a new high and it's essentially chopping around on either side of the 120-ema benchmark. A/D line is now +419 after just popping up to +472. I'm sorry, but I just don't see any conclusion yet, just lots of testing going on, chopping the markets around while that's happening.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 10:14:06 AM

There's the SPX back again, jammed against the potential resistance on 30-minute closes, now at about 1339.50, with the SPX at 1399.41 as I type.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 10:09:30 AM

The TRAN is falling toward potential Keltner support near 5100 (5093.30-5102.80) on 30-minute closes. It's at 5111.81 as I type. This could also be potential historical support since the TRAN spent a number of hours battering away at 5100 when it was climbing. SPX, OEX and Dow bears should be aware that it might be near potential short-term support. Bulls want that support to hold. I just don't see a final answer here yet, but so far, it's holding above that support.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 10:06:35 AM

Either something really weird is going on with the MID, the S&P MidCap index, or my feed and my broker's feed are both wrong. I have it down 120.29 points, at 723.53, but I believe that there's something wrong with the feed because that's just strange and it's not changing. I like to watch the MID and the RUT to see if there's an increase in appetite for risk.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 10:03:32 AM

The OEX's 30-minute chart suggests vulnerability to the 30-minute 9-ema now at 643.38, but there may be support there on 15-minute closes. It's just impossible to tell as yet.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 10:02:22 AM

The SPX did bounce from its 15-minute 9-ema, now at 1395.10. The 30-minute chart shows resistance at 1399.05 and the SPX did close that 30-minute period below it. On that chart, it still looks vulnerable to a pullback to 1393.93.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 10:01:15 AM

A/D line now bouncing but it's not yet pulling free of potential resistance from about +73 to +190. It's +178 as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 10:00:47 AM

Manpower (MAN) $66.20 +0.94% ... probes its 4/18/08 earnings high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 9:59:49 AM

Origin Agritech (SEED) $6.98 +7.71% ... hot for a 2nd-straight session. 150-day SMA just ahead at $7.24. Some "gap" to $8.00 could be filled.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 9:54:11 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $95.44 -0.11% Link ... $0.50 box chart to match futures. Remains bullish. First sign of any weakness would be a trade at $92.00.

Keene Little : 4/28/2008 9:52:05 AM

I see the possibility for this morning's pullback to be followed by a push higher to finish the rally leg off Friday's low so be careful of the possibility for some morning chop.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 9:51:18 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line began the day near the benchmark 120-ema and is now dropping through that. It's set a first potential downside target near -350. If it could steady there at 15-minute closes, it might enhance the possibility that the SPX could steady at and bounce from its 15-minute 9-ema, now being tested, but if the A/D line drives through that -350 level and then through Friday's -660 low, it risks setting a much lower target and the SPX does, too. The A/D line is now -100.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 9:49:51 AM

Oil Futures: Nymex Crude Up, But Off Highs As Supply Fears Ease

DJ- Crude-oil futures traded higher Monday, in choppy trading as traders assessed the longevity of supply concerns that sparked a price rally ahead of last weekend.

Light, sweet crude for June delivery traded 48 cents, or 0.4%, higher at $119 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The front-month contract traded as high as $119.93, a fresh all-time intraday record high, in electronic trading overnight. June Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded 2 cents lower at $116.32 a barrel.

Oil futures rose Friday on the anticipated outage of a major North Sea oil pipeline, as well as a labor strike and increased militant attacks that had shut in production in Nigeria. BP PLC (BP) shut down the 700,000 barrel-a-day Forties oil pipeline on Saturday, after a strike at a refinery in Scotland deprived the pipeline system of power and steam. The Nigerian strike has forced Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) to halt some, or possibly all, of its 800,000 barrel-a-day production in the country.

Friday's rally is seen as short-lived by some analysts. The refinery strike is set to end Tuesday, which could lead to the quick return of Forties crude.

The Federal Reserve is also due to meet this week, without a clear consensus in the market as to how it will alter interest rates further after the expected small cut Wednesday. Further cuts would likely send more money flowing into commodities as an inflation hedge, while signs that the Fed will hold steady going forward could cause the dollar to strengthen. Oil prices fell hard when the dollar firmed significantly against the euro Thursday, but further strengthening on Friday appeared to have no impact.

"Both (the Forties and dollar) developments could possibly induce a correction in energy prices later in the week, but for now the trend appears higher still," wrote Ed Meir with MF Global. "We expect the markets to remain firm at least until mid-week."

The Nigerian production outages were also seen as having a fleeting impact on the market, which has grown used to occasional large-scale interruptions to the flow of West African oil.

"Historically, labor strikes in Nigeria have not lasted long and we see little reason for this one to prove different," wrote analysts at Barclays Capital.

Front-month May reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, recently traded down 1.12 cents, or 0.4%, at $3.0425 a gallon. May heating oil traded down 2.54 cents, or 0.8%, at $3.2774 a gallon.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 9:45:43 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1394.23; the OEX's, 643.37.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 9:43:49 AM

Google (GOOG) $540.75 -0.60% Link ... has been flat to higher from its 4/18/08 earnings close of $539.41.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 9:42:00 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $358.18 -1.51% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 9:41:30 AM

Sohu.com (SOHU) $66.76 +8% Link ... hot early. Surged to a 52-weeker at the open, trading as high as $70.00.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 9:37:20 AM

So far, resistance on both the 15-minute and 30-minute Keltner charts is holding, but of course we've had neither a 15-minute nor a 30-minute close.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 9:36:57 AM

iShares Brazil (EWZ) $88.41 +0.92% ... once again tested its 2/28/08 52-week high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 9:35:52 AM

Brazil: $4.43B Mar Current Acct. Deficit Vs. $2.09B Feb

Keene Little : 4/28/2008 9:31:58 AM

The short term pattern for the move up from Friday's low would look best with a quick move up before a top. A projection for ES to complete a 5-wave move up is at 1405.50, two ticks higher than this morning's pre-market high. If we're going to get a pullback today, watch for the possibility of a quick high this morning followed by the start of a pullback. SPX 1401-1402 is trendline resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2008 9:31:54 AM

30-year Treasury Yield ($TYX.X) up 3.1 bp at 4.620%. Edges above its conventional 61.8% (10/15/07 benchmark high to 1/23/08 low). 200-day SMA also here at 4.608%.

Linda Piazza : 4/28/2008 9:31:17 AM

SPX futures are near the flat-line level, a little below fair values. The evidence that we have is a daily close that's the highest since early January, a break above the intervening swing highs, but a weekly candle produced last week that's a potential reversal signal (small-bodied candle with a lower shadow that comes at the top of the move off the March low). That signal would have to be confirmed by a down week, of course, so we won't know until the end of this week, perhaps, whether it's going to be confirmed or not. If the SPX climbs into this week, there's a resistance band from about 1407.25-1417.60, a rather wide band but one that's formed of various trendline, moving average (200-ema on the SPX at 1407.25) and potential Keltner resistance levels.

That's the perspective on the daily and weekly charts. What about intraday charts? The SPX ended the week jammed up against potential resistance on 30-minute closes at 1399-1399.50 with next potential resistance at about 1403.60. The candles being produced on that chart had suggested that the SPX was likely to pull back toward 1396.40 or perhaps even 1393.20, but that was Friday and this is Monday and we have to see how weekend headlines impacted mom and pop retail traders. The 15-minute chart was a bit more vague in its predictions, so that it looked about equally likely that the SPX could drop back toward 1394.70 as that it would climb toward 1400.60, although the decline looked a little more likely.

Here's the thing. As long as the SPX bounces from and produces 15-minute closes above the 15-minute 9-ema now at 1394.66, its shorttern trend since about 1:00 Friday afternoon hasn't changed, but I'd be watchful for stalling near 1399-1400.60 if it climbs this morning, unless there's a strong whoosh higher that breaks right through that. I wouldn't be caught flatfooted by a decline first thing, though. If that happens, and you're in bullish trades, you want that steadying at and bounce from the 15-minute 9-ema.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2008 9:26:22 AM

FED meets Tuesday and WEdnesday and is expected to lower Fed Funds rate by 25bp.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2008 9:22:51 AM

Mars Inc. agreed to acquire gum and confections company Wm. Wrigley Jr. Co. (WWY:Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company News, chart, profile, more Last: 62.45+0.37+0.60% 4:00pm 04/25/2008 Delayed quote dataAdd to portfolio Analyst Create alertInsider Discuss Financials Sponsored by: WWY 62.45, +0.37, +0.6%) in a deal valued at about $23 billion. Mars, of McLean, Va., said Wrigley shareholders will receive $80 in cash for each share of common stock and class B common stock they hold. The purchase price is a 28% premium of Wrigley's closing share price of $62.45 on Friday, Mars said. Funding for the transaction includes about $11 billion from Mars, a $5.7 billion committed senior debt facility from Goldman Sachs, and $4.4 billion of subordinated debt from Berkshire Hathaway Inc. At closing, Berkshire Hathaway has committed to purchase a minority equity interest for $2.1 billion in a Wrigley Co. subsidiary at a discount to the share price being paid to the stockholders of Wrigley.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2008 9:20:50 AM

Here are your overnight charts, basically flat. Link

Jane Fox : 4/28/2008 9:14:40 AM

I have a situation this morning that I will need to deal with and will not able to be in the monitor. See you all tomorrow.

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