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Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:55:45 AM

There's another place I've seen some sign of "compression." It's in the NYSE and NASDAQ 5-day NH/NL ratio chart.

I'm going to get some sleep, but will post tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:49:15 AM

Speaking of toms that come running from 1/4 mile only to "hang up" and check things out ... Wilshire 5000 (DWC) still checking out that trend Link

Keene Little : 5/1/2008 1:35:01 AM

Thursday's pivot tables (new monthly pivots): Link and Link

As I mentioned in tonight's newsletter, it will be important to see what happens Thursday morning. I'm assuming we'll get a bounce to at least correct Wednesday afternoon's decline (which looks like a completed 5-wave move down and is therefore due a correction at a minimum).

If we see a bounce (looking for a 38%-62% retracement, not some little thing) that then turns down and makes a new low below Wednesday's then we'll have our answer as to whether to look for new highs above Wednesday's or not. But if the bounce turns into a choppy sideways/up all-day affair then it will begin to look more bullish for a new high probably by Friday. So we'll let price lead the way here and give us some answers as to what's next.

The DOW's 120-min chart shows fairly clearly the setup here where the close was just below the small rising wedge built this week and if it doesn't recover quickly it could confirm the breakdown with a drop below 12743. But if the bulls manage to rally this back up then I'd look for another choppy rally back up to the Fib target at 13044. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:43:12 AM

US Dollar Index (DXY) daily interval bar chart Link

See how May's MONTHLY pivot retracement (dark purple) is much more compressed than March and April's? This suggests PRESSURE building.

Cursor box on 04/24/08. That morning, a client and I were working a nice tom in a CRP field. He came about a quarter mile to us at fast trot, certain to find an affectionate hen in the draw. Bugger didn't like what he saw when he got to within about 60-yards strutt'n and gobbling like you wouldn't believe. He wanted the hen to come to him, when she didn't, he knew something was wrong and disappeared over the hill.

Turkeys are fascinating. Sometimes they seem as stupid as a fence post. Most however, are a lot smarter than they've been made out to be.

Either durable goods order "stronger" than market participants expected, or notes on OIL drove dollar action. Equity futures seemed to be bidding back too.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:14:46 AM

Check out your MACD too.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:13:53 AM

OK ... three (3) pretty BIG levels of resistance in the DXY. QRTRLY Pivot, MONTHLY R1 and upper-end of you "Bailey Wave"

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:08:19 AM

OK ... DXY 72.15, or MONTHLY Pivot ... that's a start.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:06:28 AM

Ah ... then 09:29:53 ... The DXY may be important indeed.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:05:26 AM

See James' 09:00 AM ... Jobless claims and March Durable's

Then Jane's 09:06 AM

Then James' Oil note at 09:09.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:02:34 AM

DXY "gapped" above MONTHLY Pivot at 08:05 AM intra-day bar.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:01:16 AM

Searched DXY ... nothing ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 1:00:43 AM

On 04/24/08, the DXY made a notable slice above its MONTHLY Pivot. Why? Will review 04/24/08 MM for possible answer.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:58:04 AM

When you do this with the DXY, do you feel, see the compression? The pressure?

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:34:52 AM

When you place your new monthly pivot retracement on each index do this!

Simply "clone" April's pivot retracement.

Take the LOWER 0% and place it at May's S2. Look where the 100% is. After doing so, then go up and adjust the 100% to the appropriate R2.

What did the RANGE do? Expand? Compress?

When you placed the 0%, or new MNTHLY S2 at the appropriate level, did it feel "different" this month? Is there a change you can feel with your hand and mouse?

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:22:08 AM

And now we have a SIMILARITY to the past to test against. We now look for DIVERGENCE!

May'07 (the importance of cash coming out of Treasuries), Jun'07 (note BIX.X and DXY.X closes to start the month, both a smidge above MONTHLY P) then July'07 and INDU/DIA and SPX for Aug. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2008 12:04:12 AM

Last two (2) and NEW May Monthly Pivot levels Link

TNX and SMH tag MONTHLY R2 to the 100th decimal. NDX/QQQQ couldn't quite exhaust M R2 at today's close. Ability to trade it shows humans wiping away some tears.

BIX no trade at M R1 and lags.

DXY closes above NEW MONTHLY Pivot for first time since Jun'07 when DXY started month 82.30 with MONTHLY Pivot 82.05.

OI Technical Staff : 4/30/2008 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 8:21:51 PM

Oh ... Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $8.21 +1.98% ... Most recent NAV Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 8:16:31 PM

OK ... dollar weak, may "makes sense" as that tends to happen under easing. If it didn't, I would be sounding an alert! Dollar rally combined with Treasury bond action may likely be THE SIGNAL of end of Fed easing.

OK ... bonds do well, even the HIGH RISK "junk". Taking notes. Buying in short-end may not necessarily be the "flight to safety.

Broader equities give back their pre-FOMC gains. Hey, Q's up 9.54% Q2 to date, backdrop of "modest recession". I should say, today's headline GDP "stronger" than modest recession. Trim out higher oil prices (remember, US a BIG producer of oil) and probably -0.2%. Confess my eyeballing of a -0.2% GDP benefit of higher oil price.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 8:07:24 PM

Beetle's Balanced at the close. Top would be since 12/31/07, bottom is rebalance at end of Q1. Link

Capture at 02:08 PM EDT today, just before FOMC Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 7:39:53 PM

CME May'08 Regional Housing Futures (adjusted to 06/01/07 benchmark) Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 7:19:38 PM

CME Feb'08 (expired), May'08, Aug'08, Nov'08 housing futures table I track at this Link

Comments (review): The CME housing futures are a relatively "new" derivative. They trade VERY THIN and have VERY WIDE SPREADS.

So, interpretation is VERY SIMILAR to looking at abstract art. You look at it with arms crossed, and try to figure out what the artist was/is trying to communicate.

The color schemes currently use (light red, dark red, light green, bright green and blue) hope to apply basic supply/demand theory, but also the shading many would tie to a "Market Carpet" observation. DARK RED would represent a PnF chart "sell signal" where an initial low was violated to the downside. A BRIGHT GREEN would represent a PnF chart "buy signal" where an initial high was violated to the upside.

Inflection lows and highs should be "underlined."

Those in italics would be a numeral that the futures contract was gridded, but not verified with an actual trade. (see futures roll, and benchmark to prior month)

The COMP is no different than say the S&P 100, where that index is comprised of 100 different stocks. Here the COMP is comprised of some larger REGIONAL metropolitan cities.

One might also view REGIONS on a broader scale. For instance, re-sort your data with Las Vegas, San Diego and Los Angeles together.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 6:21:45 PM

NY Metro Aug'09 also a first tick since gridded. At the then offer of $184.20. Bid here is $170.00.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 5:56:13 PM

Boston Aug'09 also gets its first tick since gridded. At the offer of $153.00. Bid here is $120.00

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 5:53:01 PM

Updating my CME housing futures table. For first time since gridded Boston May'09 gets a tick at the then ask of $154.00. ($-1.40). Bid $125.00 so you get the feel.

Lots of questions regarding CME housing futures and Case- Shiller. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 5:35:39 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 5:31:09 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 5:21:03 PM

Just noting JDSU conventional (10/11/07 to 01/23/08). 80.9% pretty good first leg.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 5:18:14 PM

MarketWatch JDS Uniphase Narrows Loss On Jump In Sales Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 5:16:23 PM

DJ Live! JDS Uniphase active in late trading

JDSU $14.31 -1.85% Link ... $12.90 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 5:15:11 PM

Cal Dive (DVR) $12.19 +2.43% Link ... quiet extended on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 5:14:09 PM

Q1 revenues nearly doubled

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 5:13:27 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) $90.34 +0.66% Link ... quiet extended on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 5:12:24 PM

CBOE Most Actives Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 5:09:36 PM

"Think" textile/apparel

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 5:09:26 PM

Jones Apparel (JNY) $15.83 +5.53% Link ... gets an upgrade to "buy" from "hold" at Lazard.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 5:07:33 PM

Sunoco (SUN) $46.41 -3.00% Link ... shouldn't be expecting much. Ticks $46.25 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 5:05:41 PM

Oceaneering Intl. (OII) $66.78 +4.14% Link ... headline just whipped by regarding "Cuts 2008 Subsea Oper Income To $25M-$35M.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 5:02:11 PM

General Maritime (GMR) $26.13 +0.61% Link ... quiet extended on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:59:10 PM

Prudential Financial (PRU) $75.71 +0.13% Link ... quiet extended.

Check PnF for accuracy. May be a dividend payer. Don't get caught in a "bear trap"

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:55:30 PM

Pericom Semiconductor (PSEM) $17.01 +0.23% Link ... ticks higher at $17.55 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:51:16 PM


KKD and a wider Pnf Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:48:50 PM

Sometimes I smell KKD doughnuts.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:48:29 PM

Starbucks (SBUX) $16.23 +0.18% ... slips to $16.19 on headline numbers. "Slashes US Expansion"

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:47:32 PM

Centex (CTX) $20.82 -6.34% ... Q4 orders down 15% to 6,693

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:45:43 PM

Thought we might have had something ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:45:29 PM

Kirby Corp. (KEX) $54.84 -2.29% Link ... Easy there ... MARINE TRANSPORT.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:43:57 PM

IRBT profile Link ... thought it was a "robot vacuuming" stock.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:42:35 PM

"Think" household products.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:41:55 PM

iRobot (IRBT) $16.03 -1.04% Link ... slips to $14.75 extended on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:38:42 PM

McAfee (MFE) $33.25 -2.37% ... quiet at $33.25 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:35:48 PM

"Think" software. Security.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:35:33 PM

Symantec (SYMC) $17.20 -1.37% ... pops to $18.00 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:34:12 PM

Will it weigh on margins at RIO $39.02 +5.91% ... ticks $39.08 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:33:19 PM

PBR $121.42 +3.96% ... ticks $122.92 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:32:43 PM

PBR 10% for Gasoline; 15% for Diesel at refinery level.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:32:02 PM

DJ Live! Petroleo Brasileiro Hikes Brazilian Gasoline, Diesel Prices

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:31:21 PM

And here some follow up.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:29:55 PM

"Think" gaming

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:29:39 PM

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) $76.22 +3.23% ... slips to $70.75 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:27:42 PM

"Think" water

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:26:24 PM

Tetra Tech (TTEK) $21.12 -1.99% ... jumps to $22.70 on headline numbers.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 4:15:42 PM

Starbucks (SBUX) reporting earnings that were in-line (15 cents) with the recently lowered guidance. Stock isn't moving much after hours.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 4:06:44 PM

This is looking like a short-term top with today's failed rally at $180 in AAPL. A 38.2% Fib retracement of the current three-week run would be around $166. I think the $160 level would be stronger support.

Keene Little : 4/30/2008 4:04:14 PM

We got the little consolidation and then the final low into the close. This makes for a 5-wave move down from this afternoon's high and tells us we have a trend change (to the downside). I'll be looking for a bounce tomorrow morning to correct this afternoon's decline as an opportunity to get more short. At this point I don't know how far it could drop but after a corrective bounce we should see at least another leg down to match this afternoon's.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2008 4:01:15 PM

Tomorrow's economic report docket is full:

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Apr 26 Week. Expected: +18K. Previous: -33K.

8:30a.m. Mar Personal Income. Expected: +0.4%. Previous: +0.5%.

8:30a.m. Mar Personal Spending. Expected: +0.2%. Previous: +0.1%.

10:00a.m. Apr ISM Manufacturing Business Index. Expected: 47.5. Previous: 48.6.

10:00a.m. Mar Construction Spending. Expected: -0.6%. Previous: -0.3%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 4:01:09 PM

Swing trade put alert! ... let's go a speculative earnings ... Bare Escentuals BARE May $22.50 Put (URY-QX) at the offer of $1.25.

BARE $22.94 -4.41%% ... Saw Liza Gibbons (I think that's here name) pumping some other type of similar product the other night on an infomercial.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 3:59:34 PM

The SPX is ending the day at or slightly below its daily 10-sma.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 3:59:20 PM

The strength in the Brazilian market has also pushed steel-maker GGB to a new high at $39.44. Currently up 6.7% to $38.99.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 3:56:46 PM

Fluor (FLR) is breaking down. Shares have produced a failed rally at $160 today and slipped under its April 24th low (152.57). The next level of support is probably the $150 zone.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 3:54:53 PM

Strength in the Brazilian market (Bovespa index +6.3%) has launched shares of ARA to a new high at $82.62. ARA currently 6.3% at 80.54.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 3:53:19 PM

IBM has pulled back and is nearing support around the $120 level, prior resistance. This dip or a bounce at $120 could be a bullish entry point.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 3:51:21 PM

Next potential resistance for the SPX at 1392-1393.

Keene Little : 4/30/2008 3:49:23 PM

NDX bulls certainly had a lot to contend with today and they literally ran into a brick wall (or was an electrified fence?). The 50% retracement of the Oct-Mar decline is at 1953.90 and the 200-dma is at 1953.96. Today's high was 1953.59.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 3:44:25 PM

I do see 11,516 in the URY-QD having traded today.

BARE $22.59 -5.83% ...

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 3:42:57 PM

It's important to think now about your end-of-day decisions. Currently, the SPX has a big doji on its daily chart, a long-legged one that dipped all the way to its 10-sma. That could change many times over by the close, however, but we'll likely still be left with some form of indecision-type candle. This could be just an expected (in the old rally days) drop back to retest the 10-sma. Such retests have not always found support on the 10-sma and have sometimes required drops to the 30-sma, however, so such a drop remains a possibility. So does the typical rally day response to a test of the 10-sma: a strong rally day following that pushes through the next band of resistance. We might think we know which is most likely, with each of us referring to our own biases, but charts aren't really giving us a lot of predictions. I don't like this reaction post-Fed-decision, but it doesn't surprise me and doesn't yet prove beyond doubt that the markets will drop further. They could. It's not a given.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 3:31:55 PM

As dire as this looks on an intraday chart, on a daily chart, it looks like part of a sideways-down consolidation pattern that dropped the SPX down to its 10-sma. Remember, though, that last week's weekly candle was a potential reversal signal, so equity bulls definitely do not want a strong down week, particularly one that closes below the midpoint of week before last's range. That would be at 1360.13. The 30-sma is now 1359.57, so you could use that as your benchmark, but bulls would prefer that any downturns stop at the 10-sma or the 1378-1382 region and certainly above 1369-1371.

Keene Little : 4/30/2008 3:30:10 PM

After reacting to the top of its rising wedge pattern for the rally off the March low, the DOW found support at the trend line along the lows since April 22nd (the bottom of the small rising wedge pattern. Looking at the 120-min chart with the log scale this time (to match the daily chart showing price is finding support on the broken downtrend line from October) I'm continuing to show the possibility for one more push higher, probably into Friday (shown in pink), to finish off the small rising wedge pattern: Link

So I like a position play for the short side but understand it might not work yet. If we do see another push higher it's actually a setup I like even better than today's to position for a short trade. We'll let price lead the way and if it breaks lower I'll then add to my short on the bounce that follows the new low.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2008 3:29:11 PM

Here is the S&P futures and the VIX. Although they did out of sync for a while, they have gotten their synchronicity back. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 3:22:39 PM

The SPX overran that possible support by a bit, but from this perspective, it looks as if it might have been just an overrunning of support. Let's switch to the 30-minute chart now, however, for a longer-term view. Support there is 1383.49 and 1386.38 on 30-minute closes. With one minor violation, that support has held since 4/17, so a stronger and sustained violation of that support on 30-minute closes could be important.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 3:22:24 PM

Took a "run" just above trend. Just not enough "oomph" yet. It'll get there.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 3:21:41 PM

Wilshire 5000 (DWC) 13,996 ... (see monday's wrap)

Keene Little : 4/30/2008 3:20:56 PM

So far, with the DOW back near the flat line for the day, the daily candle is a very nasty looking gravestone doji (more bearish version of the shooting star) after tagging resistance at its trend line along the highs since March 24th (top of its rising wedge pattern). This can certainly change in the next 45 minutes but this is looking bearish and I definitely like the longer term short play that I had recommended earlier. The stop on a position trade needs to stay above today's high until we get a correction of this afternoon's drop.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 3:19:21 PM

CHRW $62.88 +0.33% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 3:18:36 PM

JBHT $33.83 -1.77% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 3:18:19 PM

Swing trade call exit alert! ... the remaining YRC Worldwide YRCW May $12.5 Calls (YUX-EV) at the bid of $3.90.

YRCW $16.06 -5.91% ...

Keene Little : 4/30/2008 3:17:07 PM

Dropping again right after my last post. No consolidation before dropping so we're still in the 3rd wave down from this afternoon's high. I'd be very hard pressed to continue to call this a corrective pullback and it now has me thinking the high is in, at least for now. Whether we'll get another bounce into Friday for a minor new high is the question. SPX needs to break below 1360 to pretty much negate that possibility (DOW 12800).

Keene Little : 4/30/2008 3:13:12 PM

I'm watching this afternoon's decline to see if it turns into a 5-wave move down, which would signify at least a short term high is in place. So far the pullback is only a 3-wave move and therefore classified as just a sharp correction. If we get a small consolidation and then a final low into the close then we'd have the sell signal (although we'd be due a bounce tomorrow morning to correct the 5-wave move down). So it's too early to tell but hopefully we'll have our answer by the close.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 3:12:50 PM

If the SPX can't manage a 15-minute close above 1392.30 by the end of this 15-minute period, it has set a potential downside target of 1387. It has potential downside support at 1386.40 (30-minute chart, so on 30-minute closes) and that 1387 level on 15-minute closes. Maintain some skepticism about these targets this time of day after a Fed decision. Although the SPX is breaking through a formation established since yesterday morning, what it could also be doing is just forming the widest parameters of a triangle that it will eventually form, tightening again until the break in the real post-FOMC direction.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 3:10:05 PM

Swing trade put exit alert! ... for one (1) of the two (2) Companhia Vale do Rio Doce RIO Sep Sep $35 Puts (RIO-UG) at the bid of $2.23.

RIO $38.32 ... off high of $38.91

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 3:07:18 PM

The OEX has also, of course, broken through its megaphone shape. It has not, however, broken through presumably strong Keltner support on 15-minute closes now at 643.45. It's testing it as I type. If it falls through this, watch for next potential support near 641.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 3:06:21 PM

$/real 1.662 -2.58%

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 3:04:14 PM

$/yen 103.90 -0.11%

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 3:03:49 PM

NASDAQ a/d 14:14

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 3:03:32 PM

There we go, a break of the megaphone shape and a push below what should have been strong Keltner support near 1392 on the SPX. This shape has looked bearish all day, but short term shapes are not reliable on a Fed decision day. If the SPX does not bounce quickly, something that is still possible, look for next potential support at 1387.13 on 15-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:59:08 PM

September Copper (hg08u) $3.88 +0.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:58:29 PM

DJ- Brazil Dlr Debt Jumps After S&P Ups Credit To Investment Grade

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:57:43 PM

PBR $119.91 +2.67% ... action in Brazil

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:56:51 PM

iShares Brazil (EWZ) $88.54 +5.49% ... was $86.00 about 10 minutes ago.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:55:49 PM

DJ- S&P Elevates Brazil Sovereign Rating To Investment Grade

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:53:54 PM

DJ- S&P Ups Brazil LT Foreign Currency Soveriegn Rtg To BBB- From BB+

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:53:05 PM

DJ- Brazil Stocks, Real Extend Gains After US Fed Cuts Rates

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:51:01 PM

RIO finds a bid ... a BIG bid

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 2:50:27 PM

If you're in bullish SPX-related positions and if the SPX moves up into the 1405.60-1408 region, have profit-protecting plans in place for your trades. I'm not saying that you would need to automatically close them out, but depending on whether they're May calls you intended to hold just a few hours or some different kind of trade, you might want to consider taking profits in a few of your contracts. If they're back-month contracts and you intended a position trade of several weeks, you'll want to consider whether you want to widen stops at that level in case volatility increases again or if you want to tighten then, collect profits if stopped and then watch for another entry.

It may all be a moot discussion anyway because the SPX might not reach that high, but I wanted traders to be prepared.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2008 2:41:14 PM

Very muted reaction to the FED and we are just getting more chop now. Great big ;(

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 2:39:55 PM

The OEX has pushed above resistance now at 647.87 that's analogous to the SPX's 1401.20 level. Both are pausing as I type, though, with the current 15-minute periods showing doji, too. Lots of churning around within those rising megaphone shapes is all I see for now. No resolution.

Keene Little : 4/30/2008 2:35:52 PM

Updating the DOW's 60-min chart that I showed earlier in the day, it ran up to the trend line along the highs from April 7th, just above 13K and pulled back. If it manages to push higher again (trying as I type), keep an eye on the 200-dma at 13032 and the Fib projection at 13044 shown on the 60-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:34:53 PM

At 02:00 PM EDT, your DXY was 72.825

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:34:11 PM

Eur/$ 1.5587 +0.09% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:33:47 PM

$/yen 104.50 +0.42% ...

Keene Little : 4/30/2008 2:32:50 PM

The cha-cha-cha around FOMC could mean the pullback here is the 2nd cha. The 3rd cha would be another push higher so be carefuly if you're shorting this. Right now I like a short against the reaction high but understand we could get a minor new high still, perhaps into the close or tomorrow morning.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 2:32:09 PM

Very long-legged doji for that last 15-minute period's candle, indicative of all the indecision that market participants are feeling right now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:29:34 PM

VIX.X still "in the zone" QS1 and MS1 at 20.00

Tab Gilles : 4/30/2008 2:28:34 PM

Weekly EIA Report Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:28:27 PM

NASDAQ a/d 17:11

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:28:16 PM

NYSE a/d 20:11

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:27:16 PM

GLD edges green ... (see beetles)

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:26:46 PM

13-week down 10 bp at 1.340%. 5, 10 and 30 still quiet

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 2:24:04 PM

The SPX is pulling back all the way toward (not quite "to" yet) potential Keltner resistance on 15-minute closes now at 1400.73.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:23:31 PM

FOMC Statement (04/30/08) Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:21:58 PM

At 02:00 NASDAQ a/d NH/NL was 16:11 and 51:87

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:21:32 PM

At 02:00 NYSE a/d NH/NL was 21:11 and 40:56

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 2:22:23 PM

Bears should not let knowledge of early volatile reactions to the Fed announcement persuade them to hold onto losing trades if they should be exiting. However, bulls should be protecting their profits just in case there's an opposite reaction following quickly on the heels of this one.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 2:19:53 PM

The megaphone's shape's upper boundary is now near 1408 for the SPX, near 651 for the OEX.

Tab Gilles : 4/30/2008 2:21:25 PM

Federal Reserve Statement Press Release Release Date: April 30, 2008

For immediate release The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 2 percent.

Recent information indicates that economic activity remains weak. Household and business spending has been subdued and labor markets have softened further. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.

Although readings on core inflation have improved somewhat, energy and other commodity prices have increased, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen in recent months. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization. Still, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate risks to economic activity. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against were Richard W. Fisher and Charles I. Plosser, who preferred no change in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 2-1/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Atlanta, and San Francisco.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 2:18:55 PM

We'll have to see how the final reaction plays out, but that accompanying statement didn't sound too cheery, did it?

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:17:53 PM

FOMC: 25 bp cut in Fed Funds. 25 bp cut in Discount

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:16:23 PM

12/11/07 FOMC Statement Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 2:14:27 PM

Beetles Balanced asset classes ... Top is 2008 YTD. Bottom is Q2 to date Link

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 2:10:18 PM

On the SPX and OEX, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see prices jump between the upper and lower boundaries of those megaphone shapes after the FOMC decision is announced.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 2:09:46 PM

The OEX's strongest short-term resistance levels are now up to about 647.80 on 15-minute closes (Keltner) and about 650.80 (rising megaphone upper trendline). Strongest support is about 644.80 (rising megaphone lower trendline) and 643.28 and 641.60 on 15-minute closes (Keltner).

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 2:08:03 PM

Potential short-term support for the SPX at 1394.30 (bottom trendline of the rising megaphone) and 1392 and 1387.50 on 15-minute closes (Keltner). Resistance at 1398.57-1399.86 on 15-minute closes (Keltner) and about 1407 (rising megaphone upper trendline). Right now, the SPX continues to chop, following the most often-seen pattern pre-FOMC decision for the SPX. That suggests we'll get the rest of the pattern, an immediate volatile reaction that gradually settles into some recognizable pattern, usually a triangle. It doesn't promise that, but suggests it as a possibility.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 1:59:47 PM

Most Recent (3/17/08) FOMC Statement Link

Jane Fox : 4/30/2008 1:48:24 PM

1390 and 1400 has pretty well been SPX's trading range for 4 days now. I still think we are in for a close above resistance either today or later this week. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 1:47:34 PM

Take some notes. As always ... DON'T FORGET TO VOTE!

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 1:47:00 PM

DJ- US Cities Increasing Sales Taxes in Record Fashion

(Partial) - In 2007, 485 U.S. cities increased their sales tax rate. Of those, 178 were newly imposed city tax rates and 307 were straight increases in existing city tax rates. This represents the largest annual expansion in the number of cities who either increased their existing rate or initiated a sales tax in the past four years, according to the annual sales tax rate study released today by Vertex Inc. North Courtland, Ala., had the largest increase nationwide, rising from a 1.0 percent sales tax rate to 4.0 percent. Seldovia, Alaska, experienced the second largest increase from 2.0 percent to 4.5 percent, followed by Fredonia, Ariz., and Watts, Okla., with increases from 2.0 percent to 4.0 percent. Several large U.S. cities also raised their sales tax rates between 0.1 and 0.2 percent in 2007, including Boulder, Colo.; Phoenix, Ariz.; St. Louis, Mo., and areas of Denver, Colo. and Seattle, Wash. States with the most number of city rate increases included Colorado, Missouri, Texas and Washington. Also in 2007, Catawba Indian Reservation, South Carolina, joined Wrangell, Alaska, in having the highest city sales tax rate of 7.0 percent. South Carolina was the only state to raise its state-wide sales tax rate, from 5.0 percent to 6.0 percent.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 1:45:59 PM

I am cautious about mentioning this because I think we've entered a time when short-term chart setups mean little, but the TRAN is currently looking weaker on a Keltner basis than it did earlier today although prices are holding up rather well. Resistance on 15-minute closes is thickening near 5244-5250. Earlier today, this same band of lines was support, not resistance. As I said earlier with reference to something else, this can be undone in an instant this afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 1:45:32 PM

And with that ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 1:43:12 PM

SEC Charges Birmingham Mayor In Muni Bond Payment Case (update)

DJ- The Securities and Exchange Commission charged Birmingham, Ala., Mayor Larry Langford with accepting undisclosed payments related to municipal bond offerings and swap agreement transactions on behalf of Jefferson County, Ala. The SEC alleges Langford accepted more than $156,000 in undisclosed cash and benefits from William Blount, chairman of Blount Parris & Co., for two years while serving as president of the County Commission of Jefferson County. The SEC said Langford selected Blount Parrish to participate in every Jefferson County municipal bond offering and security-based swap agreement in 2003 and 2004, with the firm collecting more than $6.7 million in fees. The SEC said it's charging Langford, Blount and Blount Parrish with anti-fraud violations and is charging Albert LaPierre, an Alabama registered political lobbyist, with aiding and abetting.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 1:40:52 PM

The A/D line is currently +991. It keeps hovering around that +1000 level or just under it, not making any move up toward the current +1582 potential target but certainly not falling much, either.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 1:33:31 PM

Once again, the SPX's and OEX's Keltner versions of potential resistance (up to 1400 on 15-minute closes for the SPX and about 647.53 for the OEX) look strong enough to hold on 15-minute closes, but we're getting into a time period when traders are going to try their last efforts at front-running what they believe to be the reaction after the Fed. Technical analysis may have less and less import right now as emotion-based trading takes over.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 1:30:28 PM

PM $51.42 and MO $20.19 = $71.61

Keene Little : 4/30/2008 1:30:10 PM

GOOG has reached an interesting level and warrants serious consideration for a short play now. There are a few reasons it might run into trouble in the 585-600 range (today's high so far is 584.86): Link
1. The rally has taken it up near the broken uptrend line from 2005 (arithmetic price scale), currently at 590.
2. The 2nd leg up in its bounce from the March low is twice the 1st leg up at 585.80.
3. A gap down on January 22nd would be closed at 600.25 (the Jan 21 closing price).

I think a short on GOOG with a stop at 605 makes for a nice reward:risk play. From a short term price pattern perspective it would look best with one more push higher to create a 5-wave move up from Monday's low. I get a price projection to 594 for that kind of move. So ideally that's where you could enter a short play (or even better, at gap closure) but obviously with this afternoon's FOMC it's anybody's guess where this will head next.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 1:29:25 PM

RAI and MO with newly spun off PM

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 1:27:29 PM

IP is a FOREst/paper, and that one can't go without notice.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 1:26:49 PM

SPX potential resistance is now 1399 and 1400.29 on 15-minute closes (Keltner) and about 1406 (rising megaphone resistance). For the OEX, it's about 647.53 on 15-minute closes (Keltner) and just a hair over 650 (rising megaphone resistance).

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 1:26:33 PM

Some "surprises" at the NYSE NL too. CLX is a "CHEMical" ... what's up with that?

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 1:25:26 PM

Some "surprises" to me in the NYSE NH list. CLS and SPW to name a couple. Oil and transport names not a big surprise based on some observations I've been noting.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 1:23:07 PM

REIT stock SL Green (SLG) is up 2.5% and breaking out from its six-day trading range. Currently at $95.28.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 1:22:46 PM

Traders and investors can use the NH and NL list to benefit too. Like picking up on trends from a stock like WMT for discounters.

What's the theme among the NH and NL. Is there one?

When there is, traders will often start "picking" on others that look set to repeat the theme, or trend. Stocks that hit 52-week highs aren't doing it because they are out of favor. Stocks that hit 52-week lows aren't doing it because they're in favor.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 1:18:39 PM

QCharts users can take your retracement at 25bp intervals. I like to change my retracement levels to 10% increments 0%-100%.

Then simply "left click" your mouse on the retracement, set the al_rts at the levels and be done with it.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 1:17:02 PM

I anticipated the Fed announcement by an hour. I must be eager to get this waiting period finished. The announcement will not be at 1:15 am ET, of course.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 1:16:44 PM

Fed fund futures quiet ... pretty much predicting 100% probability of 25 bp cut. Will continue to monitor for any type of post-FOMC reaction.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 1:05:04 PM

As we head into the FOMC decision in a few minutes, I'm looking at a short-term SPX chart that shows the SPX trapped in a rising megaphone shape and between presumed strong support on 15-minute closes at 1391.63 and then 1387.36 and presumed strong resistance, at 1400.30. RSI is near 50. There are no clues as to next direction on this chart and the SPX chops along: Link Do be wary of any presumed breakout if the breakout can't be sustained outside the black channel lines shown here.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 1:03:09 PM

Good point, Jeff. I also noticed that FDO was flirting with a breakout over resistance near $22.00. DLTR is testing its 200-dma today.

Different business model but I noticed that Costco (COST) is nearing its all-time highs near $72.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 1:00:02 PM

Use WMT to think ... DLTR and FDO

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 12:59:22 PM

Great observation James ... was noticing yesterday after BWLD's earnings that restaurant stocks have been performing well. Check out the discount retailers too!

James Brown : 4/30/2008 12:55:16 PM

BWLD isn't the only restaurant stock higher.

Maybe the GDP report this morning is boosting the group again.

YUM +1.8% to a new all-time high
CAKE +5.4% and breaking out over 200-dma
DRI +2.4% and was just above its 200-dma intraday
CBRL +6.7%
RRGB +6.19% and breaking out over resistance near $40.00.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 12:49:01 PM

Ah... the dangers of earnings reports. Shorts got killed today in Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD).

The company reported earnings last night that were only in-line with estimates but the results and guidance was good enough to garner a couple of upgrades this morning.

The stock gapped open higher and is up 22.6% to $31.75 and now challenging resistance near $32.00 dating back to November-December 2007.

The latest data listed short interest at 29% of the very small 15.4 million-share float.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 12:44:20 PM

SPX Corp. (SPW) is surging to new highs over $122 after beating earnings estimates and raising their guidance. I wouldn't chase it here but it might be worth watching for a pull back. The P&F chart points to a $133 target.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 12:43:18 PM

NUT $3.96 +1.27% ... based in Hawaii, but grows macadamia nuts. And some real estate. Should oceans rise, may be hard to find.

Remember when? "Last time I checked, the U.S. wasn't growing any more real estate."

Ah those were the days.

DJUSHB 372.36 -2.27% ... all-time high was 1,120.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 12:40:05 PM

HA ... it's an airline.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 12:39:53 PM

Not seeing any news but shares of Regis (RGS) are showing strength. The stock is up 2.9% and breaking out past technical resistance at its simple and exponential 200-dma near $29.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 12:38:47 PM

VGZ and CDE?

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 12:38:17 PM

HA and NUT (see yesterday's MM) ... any tie other than the state?

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 12:37:12 PM

AMEX NH and NL Link

James Brown : 4/30/2008 12:36:47 PM

Tobacco and cigarette maker Reynolds American (RAI) is plunging about 6% to new 52-week lows after a terrible earnings report.

The company missed estimates by 15 cents and guided lower. RAI bounced near its June 2006 low around $53.25 this morning.

Rival Phillip Morris Intl. (PM) is only down 1% today.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2008 12:34:51 PM

VIx is testing its daily highs but the S&P futures (ES) are not testing daily lows. This tells me ES has a very good chance of testing those lows.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 12:33:26 PM

Currency traders aren't sure where to go, either. The USDJPY has been coiling into an ever-tighter coil since about 6:30 am ET this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 12:31:41 PM

NASDAQ New Lows at this Link

James Brown : 4/30/2008 12:30:16 PM

W.W.Grainger (GWW) is inching higher here after announcing a 10 million-share stock buy back program and raising their dividend 14.3% to 40 cents a share.

GWW has about 77 million shares outstanding.

Shares look bullish here after bouncing from short-term support near $84.00. The P&F chart suggests a $99 target. The all-time highs are near $95-96.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 12:27:38 PM


Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 12:27:11 PM


Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 12:26:46 PM

YRCW $16.77 -1.75% Link ... would take a trade at $40.60 to see a 52-week high. $10.98 for a new 52-week low.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 12:25:04 PM

The DJUSHB home construction index is down 2% but shares of HOV are out performing its peers with a 1.4% gain. The stock is trading above its exponential 200-dma and looks poised to breakout over the $12.50 mark. The P&F chart target on HOV is $25.00 but that's probably a very long-term target.

Beazer Homes (BZH) is also out performing, +3.9% to $11.43.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 12:25:03 PM

The rising trendline off the SPX's Tuesday low is now at about 1393, if I'm eyeballing it correctly. However, there's potentially strong Keltner support on 15-minute close at 1391.44, so I'd use that lower level as confirmation that the rising trendline had been broken. Then, I'd need to see consistent 15-minute closes below next Keltner potential support at 1387.50 before I believed that the SPX was doing anything other than retesting yesterday's low. I really don't anticipate the SPX falling that far pre-FOMC decision anyway, though.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 12:24:27 PM

NASDAQ New Highs Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 12:18:50 PM

12:00 Internals at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 12:15:16 PM

The SPX's and OEX's resistance did hold. I'm not surprised, but I'm not making too many predictions today. The short-term chart (15-minute) setup is more bearish than bullish, although prices are climbing within it, but the daily chart setup is about as undetermined as it can get. Since short-term setups can be undone in an instant an hour from now, it's foolish to try to predict ultimate market direction based on a short-term setup.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 12:04:40 PM

Will follow with NASDAQ's and the "other" market ... AMEX.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 12:03:09 PM

NYSE NH/NL names at 11:26 Link

James Brown : 4/30/2008 12:00:37 PM

I wanted to throw up a chart on Petrobras (PBR). Shares have definitely rolled over inside its "channel". chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 11:57:15 AM

Chevron (CVX) $95.22 +0.50% ... #2 weighting in INDU/DIA/YM

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 11:56:29 AM

DJ (11:34 AM) - Chevron: UK Pembroke Refinery Production Fully Shut

Keene Little : 4/30/2008 11:56:08 AM

Just as important as the hard number on the ISEE data is the fact that it is stretched above the 50-dma which indicates unusually high call volume in relation to put buying. There could be a few too many bulls leaning over the side of the boat here.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 11:55:43 AM

Now that the SPX has hit and appears to be (operative word is "appears") bouncing from that 15-minute 9-ema, it's time to take another look at potential resistance. That's 1399.05 and 1401.02 on 15-minute closes (Keltner) and about 1404 (rising megaphone trendline). For the OEX, that's 647.34 on 15-minute closes (Keltner) and about 648.80 (rising megaphone trendline). Currently, it looks as if the Keltner resistance could hold again.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 11:54:48 AM

CNOOC Ltd. (CEO) $177.87 -1.15% ... has perhaps "figure it out" better than PTR? Still perplexing.

Keene Little : 4/30/2008 11:53:24 AM

While price is barely making headway over the past week we've got some very bullish expectations that it will do better. The ISEE call/put data shows excessive bullish enthusiasm with lots of call buying lately. This should urge caution amongst the bulls. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 11:53:21 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $150.08 +1.42% ... more communist than socialist.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 11:51:38 AM

DJ - Brazil Energy Minister: PBR Needs Fuel Price Hike

Brazil's state-run oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), or Petrobras, can't put off a hike in domestic gasoline and diesel prices much longer, Mines and Energy Minister Edison Lobao is quoted as saying on the Estado newswire Wednesday. Petrobras told the government it "can't withstand much longer without raising prices," Lobao said. Lobao said Petrobras Chief Executive Sergio Gabrielli has presented a proposal for a price increase, but the government has yet to make a decision. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was quoted later by Estado as saying that the government will make a decision Wednesday on whether to raise fuel prices. The president added that Finance Minister Guido Mantega was also considering the issue and will be in contact with him later Wednesday. Petrobras hasn't raised domestic gasoline and diesel prices since September 2005, although international oil prices since then have almost doubled. While other oil firms, such as BP Plc (BP) or Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) posted strong profits due to the oil price rally, Petrobras' earnings have moved sideways in recent quarters. With an average of 1.005 million barrels of oil equivalent, or BOE, a day, Brazilian gasoline and diesel sales in 2007 represented 31% of Petrobras' overall sales volume of oil and gas products and biofuels. Petrobras has increased the price of other products, including aviation fuel, naphtha and natural gas. Earlier this month, press reports said the government was studying a hike in gasoline and diesel prices of between 3% and 5%. Petrobras, which has a near-monopoly on refining in Brazil, is officially free to set domestic gasoline and diesel prices. But the government, which controls the company, exerts subtle pressure to keep prices down. A potential fuel price rise would come at a time when the government is facing difficulties in controlling rising inflation. The rolling 12-month IPCA inflation rate through April 15 was 4.94%, well above the central bank's inflation target of 4.5% for the year. Due to inflationary pressures, Brazil's central bank earlier this month hiked the country's reference lending rate, the Selic, to 11.75% from 11.25%.

PBR $116.45 -0.29% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 11:49:50 AM

FTD does look to have "spiked" to $14.50 in early trade.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 11:48:04 AM

Moody's Placed Ftd Group On Review For Possible Upgrade

FTD $13.58 +0.59% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 11:44:47 AM

DJ (11:36 AM)- Mexican Bank Loans Up 21.1% In March On Commercial Lending

Bank loans to Mexico's private sector were up 21.1% year-on-year at the end of March, led by growth in commercial lending, the Bank of Mexico said Wednesday. Direct performing loans, a measure of new lending, stood at 1.50 trillion pesos ($143 billion) at the end of March, up from MXN1.19 billion a year earlier, but nearly unchanged from February, the central bank said in a press release. The annual rate of loan growth observed in March was sharply lower than the 24.6% expansion recorded for the 12-month period ending Feb. 29 as banks curtailed credit card lending. Commercial loans to businesses and corporations increased 29.4% on the year to MXN718.5 billion at the end of March, with growth in credit to the manufacturing, construction and service sectors, the central bank said. Mortgage loans grew 20.2% to MXN260.9 billion, while consumer loans fell 4.7% to MXN381.8 billion. Within consumer lending, credit card loans contracted 9.1% to MXN214.1 billion, while loans to finance the purchase of durable consumer goods fell 2.4% to MXN64.2 billion. Mexico's banking industry, which is largely controlled by international firms like Spain's Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBV) and Citigroup Inc. (C), has enjoyed double-digit growth rates since early 2004, thanks to low interest rates, strong demand for credit from consumers and businesses, and a growing economy. The Association of Mexican Banks expects overall bank lending to grow 15%-20% this year, slowing from 24.1% in 2007, due to more sluggish economic growth. Banks have also adopted stricter lending criteria in recent quarters for consumer loans amid deteriorating asset quality following a boom in credit card lending during 2005 and 2006. The ratio of non-performing consumer loans to total loans in that category stood at 5.8% at the end of February, up from 3% at the close of 2005.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 11:43:15 AM

The SPX's 15-minute 9-ema is now 1396.45; the OEX's, 645.95.

Keene Little : 4/30/2008 11:40:07 AM

The pattern on SPX has me thinking a little more bearish. The move up from April 22nd to Monday's high counts well as a completion of the rally and then the sharp drop yesterday would have been the 1st wave down. That means the bounce off yesterday's low would be a correction of the sharp decline and that Monday's high has to hold. Therefore my recommendation (more as a position trade) is to be short against Monday's high. It makes for a fairly tight stop with good reward potential.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2008 11:29:34 AM

This morning the 23.60% fib level was supporting Crude but that support seems to have broken now. If/when crude returns to the $110/bl I will be looking for signs of renewed strength and will be a buyer of crude again. I use the USO to take positions in Crude, which has a stash of crude futures and not crude stocks. I believe Oil stocks have a tendency to follow the stock market closer than they follow Crude, although the price of crude certainly has an influence on them. Link

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 11:26:41 AM

The SPX tests potential resistance on 15-minute closes that now has been pushe dup to 1399. Next potential resistance is from about 1401.22 (Keltner) to 1403 (rising short-term wedge trendline). The OEX is stronger today, having already challenged the potential resistance that's analogous to the SPX's 1401.22 level. That's at 647.45 for the OEX, potential resistance on 15-minute closes. The OEX is currently 647.35. Rising wedge trendline resistance is about 648.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 11:11:51 AM

Interactive Internet (IIX.X) 222.60 +0.69% ... probes correlative 200-day SMA and its 50% conventional.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 11:09:44 AM

The A/D line is currently +983, again testing the 4/28 high (slightly above it) and today's previous high, +1003.

Keene Little : 4/30/2008 11:09:43 AM

Updating the DOW's 60-min chart, I changed the top trend line of the potential rising wedge for price action since the March low and that puts it near the 200-dma (13037) by this afternoon. That could make for an interesting setup if we see a continuation of the rally into FOMC. The uptrend line along the lows since April 22nd is now an important line to watch, currently near 12840. Link

Assuming for the moment that we'll get the push higher into this afternoon, the type of pattern that is playing out since April 22nd would look best with another down-up sequence as depicted in pink. That could play out into the end of the week and as long as the bearish divergences continue I'll continue to view the setup as ultimately bearish. The risk is failure at any time from the rising wedge pattern.

Bullish sentiment as measured by VIX and ISEE (call/put ratio--it got another print above 150 yesterday and is running high today) warn us that too many are leaning over the bullish side of the boat and we know what happens to the boat in that case.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 10:59:08 AM

We have a pattern now of 15-minute closes at or above the 15-minute 9-ema for the SPX. That's at 1394.86. For the OEX, the pattern isn't quite as clear, but the 15-minute 9-ema is now 644.93. As long as both are bouncing from their 9-ema's, we can watch for the possibility that higher resistance might be challenged again. That's at 1397.82 and 1401.21 on 15-minute closes for the SPX and 646.27 and 647.23 for the OEX. Essentially, though, markets are just chopping around. Remember when car alarms first became popular and some early ones shouted at people to "step away from the car"? I feel like warning, "Step away from the keyboard!"

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:58:06 AM

Four-week average of CRUDE OIL INPUTS into refiners rises to 14.54M bbls/day from last week's 14.40M bbls/day

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:56:00 AM

#Days of crude oil supplies should be 22.00. Up from last week's 21.9.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:55:00 AM

CRUDE OIL inputs into refiners fell by 79,000 bbls/day to 14.78M bbls/day

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:54:05 AM

GROSS inputs into refiners fell by 37,000 bbls/day to 15.02M bbls/day.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:51:15 AM

SPR added additional 207K bbls to 701.34M bbls.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:50:24 AM

Heating Oil (>than 500 PPM sulfer) down a fraction 484K bbls to 21.60M bbls.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:49:17 AM

Kerosene-Type Jet fuel up a fractional 455K bbls to 38.74M bbls

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:48:37 AM

ULS Diesel (0-15 PPM sulfer) stockpiles up 1.7M bbls to 66.75M bbls

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:44:48 AM

Correction alert! ... EIA Gasoline Stockpiles Down 1.48M bbls

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 10:42:34 AM

Although it's not guaranteed to happen, it's certainly possible that indices could do this sideways choppy thing into the Fed decision. As I mentioned earlier today, that's one pattern on Fed decision days.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:40:30 AM

$/yen 104.50 +0.45% ...

Jane Fox : 4/30/2008 10:57:11 AM

I am not trading this morning because typically a FED announcement day is a horrid day to trade. Horrid that is until the announcement then it is totally a blast. Love FED announcement trading. Link

James Brown : 4/30/2008 10:38:04 AM

European markets are almost all positive. Out of the 12 different markets only Sweden is down and it's only down fractionally.

The French CAC 40.... +0.28%
The German DAX ...... +0.57%
The English FTSE..... +0.29%

James Brown : 4/30/2008 10:37:00 AM

...3.8 million barrel build in crude oil supplies....

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:36:31 AM

USO $92.74 -0.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:36:15 AM

Eur/$ 1.5556 -0.11%

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:35:05 AM

EIA: US Refineries Ran at 85.4%; Seen +0.3 Pts at 85.9%

James Brown : 4/30/2008 10:34:29 AM

Asian markets were mixed...

The Chinese Shanghai Composite.... +4.8%
The Hong Kong Hang Seng Exchg..... -0.6%
The Japanese NIKKEI 225 Index..... -0.3%

The Shanghai index is up about 20% in just the last two weeks.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:34:11 AM

EIA: Distillate Stockpiles Up 1.13M bbls; Seen unch

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:33:41 AM

EIA: Gasoline Stockpiles Up 1.48M bbls; Seen -800,000

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:33:07 AM

EIA: Crude Oil Stockpiles up 3.85M; Seen +500,000

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:32:36 AM

Cummins (CMI) $62.81 +9.25% ... hot again.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:30:21 AM

EIA Stockpiles from last week Link

James Brown : 4/30/2008 10:28:08 AM

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is up 1.3% to $177.43 and nearing what looks like significant resistance at the $180.00 level. Shares look very overbought here. chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 10:24:00 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

James Brown : 4/30/2008 10:23:23 AM

Google (GOOG) showing strength. The stock is up 2.7% and breaking out over its 200-dma. Shares currently trading at $574.22.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 10:22:08 AM

GM isn't the only auto-related stock trading higher today. Shares of Lithia Motors (LAD) is up 21% to $9.60 after reporting earnings that were four cents better than expected. Unfortunately, the long-term trend for LAD's share price is still bearish.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 10:21:55 AM

The A/D line is currently +622, still falling back from its challenge of the 4/28 high. It punched a few points above that high but was quickly reversed. Equity bulls want to see the A/D line maintain 15-minute closes above about +387.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 10:19:54 AM

The TRAN charged up to a new recent high today, which is good for SPX, OEX and Dow bulls to see. However, although I feel like such a party pooper, I really don't like the rising wedge shape in which the TRAN has been rising since early in March. Today's climb nudges price right underneath the top trendline (off 3/25, 4/02, and 4/04 highs) of that rising wedge. Early in 2003, we saw a number of these rising wedges forming, causing technical analysts to question the rallies since such rising wedges are typically bearish . . . or were. They were all broken to the upside and the breakouts, obviously, were not false and quickly reversed ones. However, I urge you to maintain some caution, even if there's a quick breakout, if it if as quickly reversed.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 10:19:14 AM

Real estate firm JLL is down sharply, -8.6% to $80.13 near its 50-dma, after reporting earnings last night. Consensus estimates were at 63 cents a share. JLL reported a profit of just 9 cents a share.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 10:09:27 AM

CNBC reporting on news that another U.S. aircraft carrier had moved into the Persian Gulf as things start to heat up with Iran again.

While nothing has happened yet this could explain the strength in oil today.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 10:06:55 AM

Sealed Air (SEE) is gapping lower and down 6.3% to $25.80 near its 50-dma after reporting earnings and missing estimates by 4 cents this morning.

Keene Little : 4/30/2008 10:06:41 AM

I agree with Linda. The early morning action shows what most of us are expecting to see--just more chop. Unless you like very quick scalps I doubt we'll see any good trade setups until we get past FOMC.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 10:05:17 AM

Dow-component General Motors (GM) is up about 9% to $23 and challenging its 100-dma. The market was expecting a loss of $1.60 a share. GM delivered a loss of $0.62/share. Revenues were a lot better than expected.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 10:04:35 AM

Typical. I'll be listing potential support and resistance levels, but I won't be trusting them too much myself today and I urge you not to, either. There's potential support for the OEX down to about 1393.45, support gleaned from both the 15- and 30-minute Keltner charts. Bulls want it to hold on those closes and bears do not. Next support begins at about 1391-1392 and stretches down to 1388.55 on 15-minute closes. As long as the SPX is within about 1401-1402 and 1388.60-1391, it's just chopping within that rising megaphone shape.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 10:01:22 AM

Oil refiner Valero (VLO) reported earnings yesterday that appeared to be better than expected. But investors are selling the news and at least one firm is downgrading the stock. VLO is spiking lower and breaking under round-number support at $50.00.

This earnings news from VLO has a different analyst firm downgrading rival refiners Sunoco (SUN) and Tesoro (TSO). Both have had their earnings estimates and price targets cut this morning.

VLO might find some support near $47.50 but it looks like it's setting up for a run toward the March lows near $45.00.

TSO is already trading near multi-year lows and a breakdown under $25.00 might be another momentum entry point.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 9:58:11 AM

The SPX's short-term pattern off yesterday's low is a kind of rising megaphone shape. That's indicative of more emotion-based trading coming into the market. Usually that's not bullish when seen on a rally, but I wouldn't give too much faith in anything seen today. Just thought I'd mention it, FWIW.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 9:56:55 AM

A/D line now +825, pulling back from the high.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 9:55:41 AM

In the last four months Citigroup has raised $40.5 billion in new capital.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 9:54:20 AM

US Chicago Purch Mgmt Adj April Index 48.3 Vs. Mar 48.2
Prices paid index 82.9 Vs. Mar 83.9
Supplier deliveries 52.5; Mar 54.9
Employment index 35.3; Mar 44.6
New orders index 53.0; Mar 53.9

James Brown : 4/30/2008 9:51:30 AM

The GOX gold index is one of today's best performers with a 2.19% gain.

The GLD gold ETF is up 0.66% to $86.38. The GDX gold-miner ETF is up 1.8%.

The OIX oil index is also out performing with a 1.5% gain.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 9:51:27 AM

The A/D line created a potential upside target now near +1510, but it's pausing beneath Monday's +965 high, so I'd urge some caution about believing too strongly in that upside target. If bearish, do factor in the possibility that the A/D line could still climb quite a bit and carry equities higher, too, if it does, but, if bullish, don't count on it happening. The A/D line is currently +905 and another test of Monday's high is occurring.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 9:48:48 AM

The SPX has obviously pushed above first potential resistance on 15-minute closes, and is closely approaching the next, now at about 1397.50. That's light resistance only, however, and a strong surge could easily break now that the lower level has been broken. Next resistance above that, now at 1401.50, is much stronger, however. Right now, I just urge some caution about your approach to the markets as we could see all kinds of crazy things occur in this predecision morning.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 9:44:54 AM

Crude oil is bouncing after yesterday's big decline. Currently oil is up 86 cents to $116.49.

The USO is responding, up 1% to $93.92.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2008 9:42:35 AM

I don't think SPX will break resistance before the FED announcement but I think it will later today or later this week. I suspect we will get our close above resistance this week. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2008 9:40:40 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 9:37:56 AM

Keltner outlook on the A/D line: The A/D line jumped into the upper or bullish half of its 15-minute chart this morning, also gapping above what had been potential resistance on 15-minute closes at about +350. As long as the A/D line maintains values above that into this first 15-minute period, it will have set a potential upside target of about +1510, but I'd certainly watch Monday's +965 high as potential resistance, too. The A/D line is currently +856. A move toward +1510 would obviously be good for equities, but we don't know yet whether such a target will be set, as the A/D line can and sometimes does move quickly this first 15-minute period. It can as easily drop quickly as it can climb quickly.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 9:39:49 AM

Citigroup (C) is down 2% to $25.84 following last night's announcement to raise another $3 billion through a secondary offering.

Correction: This morning the company upped its secondary to $4.5 billion "due to strong investor demand"

Jane Fox : 4/30/2008 9:37:01 AM

ER (Russell 2000 futures) are heading back to their overnight highs and will probably be the first market to break through.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2008 9:35:56 AM

AD line opens at +722 and is climbing.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 9:34:52 AM

the OEX has potential resistance on 15-minute closes from 643.79-644.10. The OEX is above that, of course, but the first 15-minute close has not occurred, of course, and the resistance may yet hold on that close. If not, next potential resistance on that chart is about 645.76 and then 647.13.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 9:33:38 AM

There's the SPX, jumping right up to test the 1393.40-ish potential resistance on 15-minute closes. As I type, it's above that level already, but the first 15-minute period has not closed, of course. Next potential resistance on this chart is 1396.88.

James Brown : 4/30/2008 9:31:58 AM

Poised to gap higher....First Solar (FSLR) is trading up around $297.50 following this morning's earnings report. Shares closed at $284.92.

Linda Piazza : 4/30/2008 9:28:22 AM

SPX futures are currently a little more than two points above fair value. The SPX closed yesterday at 1390.94. If the cash market moves up in accordance with current futures' values, that would bring it up to about 1393. On the 15-minute chart, I see potential resistance on 15-minute closes at 1393.00-1393.40, so we would be getting an early test of that resistance.

Of course, none of that short-term setup business means anything with further economic news this morning and the Fed decision and statement this afternoon, and that's my warning to you. Although we've seen a few Fed decision days when the markets front-run their after-the-Fed action and never look back, and anyone not in on the trade before the Fed decision loses out, far more decision days present a different pattern. That pattern includes choppy action before the Fed decision and then an immediate expansion of volatility after the decision. That volatility gradually tamps down into a recognizable formation, usually a triangle, with prices breaking out either late the day of the Fed decision or the next morning.

Which pattern will be it today? We absolutely do not know, so you're taking risks with new entries or current entries you hold over the Fed decision. You've got gut instincts, what you believe may happen, and little else that's any more trustworthy to guide you. It's obvious that markets have been supported into this decision, but supported so big money can sell into the rally or supported because big money bought at the lows and wants mom and pop retail traders to buy and send prices higher? People talk about the markets looking ahead and pricing in better things, but did you realize that, as of this week's high, the SPX was already almost 12% off the March low? Is it possible that market participants have already front-run this Fed action and GDP number today?

Just maintain some caution as you make trading decisions today. Whether you're bearish or bullish--I'm trying to remain neutral--don't take on more risk than you can afford.

Keene Little : 4/30/2008 9:28:00 AM

After dropping to a low this morning just before 6:30 AM equity futures have another one of those manufactured looking sharp rallies to a pre-market high near 8:30 AM. Futures have pulled back a little but still in the green. As usual, with these kinds of pre-market moves it's hard to trust any opening rally. Today will be a difficult day anyway since it will likely be low volume and easily pushed around.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2008 9:23:07 AM

I still think this is a very good spot for buy Gold. I use the GLD ETF which has a stash of Gold bullion and is not a collection of Gold stocks. Link

Jane Fox : 4/30/2008 9:21:28 AM

I was kind of hoping Crude would fall back to around $110/bl so I could get back on board but it looks like the 23.60% fib level is going to be support at least for a while. Link

Jane Fox : 4/30/2008 9:19:06 AM

Here your overnight charts of the major index futures.

The @ER2 chart is the Russell 2000 futures
The @ES chart is the S&P futures
The @YM chart is the DOW futures
The @NQ chart is the NDX futures

Both NQ and YM are tagging their previous day highs (cyan trendline) but all patterns are bullish. Seems the market liked the GDP data and may be thinking we are skirting a recession. According to strict recession rules we may be but it seems a little foolish to think we are not. Link

Jane Fox : 4/30/2008 9:09:26 AM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Despite a modest drop in interest rates, the volume of mortgage applications filed last week fell a seasonally adjusted 11.1% compared with the previous week, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday.

Application volume for the week ended April 25 was down an unadjusted 14.2% against the same week in 2007.

Refinance applications decreased 16.7% on a week-to-week basis, while applications filed for mortgages to buy homes were down a seasonally adjusted 4.8%.

The four-week moving average for all mortgages as tracked by the Washington-based MBA was down 4.3%.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2008 9:08:33 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Treasury Department will auction $21 billion in notes and bonds next week in its quarterly refunding auctions, the government said Wednesday. The department will auction $15 billion in 10-year notes and $6 billion in 29-year, 6-month bonds to refund $74 billion in maturing securities and pay down approximately $53 billion. In addition, to meet growing financing needs, the Treasury announced that it is bringing back the 52-week T-bill. The first of the monthly auctions will take place on June 3. In a report to the government, a panel of experts said that the department must take more steps to meet the projected deficit. "The majority of members believe that the addition of the year bill combined with increases to the size and frequency of existing coupon debt over coming quarters will still not be sufficient to satisfy the increased financing needs of the Treasury over the intermediate and longer term," the panel said. Analysts believe the next option will be to bring back the 3-year note.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2008 9:01:39 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Companies in the U.S. private sector added 10,000 jobs in April, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday. The report comes two days before the Labor Department reports on nonfarm payroll growth for April. Adding in some 25,000 jobs typically created by government, the ADP report suggests nonfarm payrolls grew by about 35,000 in April, compared to the drop of 80,000 expected by Wall Street economists. Analysts note that the ADP has overshot the employment report in each of the past five months. Economists had expected ADP to drop by 55,000 in April.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2008 9:01:11 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- As Federal Reserve policy-makers gather Tuesday for the start of their two-day meeting, the statement they'll cobble together over the next two days will be more important than any action taken by the central bank.

"This is a case where words are going to speak louder than action," said David Rosenberg, North American economist at Merrill Lynch.

The Fed's interest-rate meeting begins Tuesday afternoon. The statement will be released on Wednesday around 2:15 p.m.

One fly in the ointment is that relying on a short statement to communicate to markets has not always worked for the Bernanke Fed. Nuance hasn't been a strong suit.

The most spectacular failure was the statement after the October meeting, where the Fed insisted that the risks of a slowdown and higher inflation were roughly in balance. This sent the market into a tailspin and dramatically increased difficulty in credit markets.

But six months later, economists said that some factors are working in the Fed's favor. Most importantly, the market already has priced in a pause, so it won't take much to convince them, analysts added

Jane Fox : 4/30/2008 8:57:35 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- The U.S. economy crawled a second quarter in a row during early 2008, restrained by a sick housing sector, weak consumer spending, and a pullback in business spending.

Gross domestic product rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.6% annual rate January through March, the Commerce Department said Wednesday in the first estimate of first-quarter GDP. Rising inventories, likely an unintended buildup that could come back to haunt the economy, helped prevent a slump.

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